tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 13, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> a very good morning and welcome to daybreak australia. annabelle: we are counting down to asia's major market opens. shery: good evening. the top stories. stocks and bonds plunged as inflation and recession risks radel wall street. u.s. equities tumbling into a bear market. paul: investors think the fed may hike further. thanks seeing -- banks seeing 75 basis points. shery: and pressure on kuroda regarding the yen slight. u.s. futures rebounding at the opening of the asian session. up zero point 3% after the s&p 500 already fell 22% plunging
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into the bear market. the nasdaq 100 falling more than 4.5% and we have the vix fear index about that. the curve in birding signaling the traders are concerned about the uncertainty more than they were. we had the safe haven trade pushing the dollar higher. it is all about what is happening in the treasuries space because the yields continue to climb. we are talking about two-year yields. you can see what is happening. you see the two days selloff on the two-year similar to what we saw in the collapse of lehman brothers. watching that closely. the 10 year yield also watching that. we are close to the curve in birding again. -- inverting again. and we are seeing the cost of hedging. investment grade debt surging to
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a high. there is a lot of anxiety in the markets. >> you just said it. recession warnings setting as out for the trading session in asia. new zealand coming online. futures for australia and japan and asia -- it was closed yesterday for a public holiday. korea is a pretty grim outlook for the kospi because a closed at a november 2020 low. let's check on the fixed income space. kiwi yields coming online and moving higher. tracking the moves we saw in treasuries in the market session. a lot of focus on what we saw in japan's bond space. the 10 year yesterday breached the upper end of the target range. we are seeing the boj picking up their bond buying operations. today they will buy 3.7 billion dollars of five and 10 your notes. this is a yield curve control in
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action. where does that leave the yen? still under pressure. >> this could really be the next shock the markets will be watching. we are hearing a lot of wall street analysts saying we could see a 100 basis points from the fed on wednesday to contain the inflation purity you can kind of get -- to contain the inflation. you kind of get their point. if they want to have this vocal moment of raising any sense that they are behind the curve, why not go for the 100 basis points? others are rising their expectations. saying 50 was a big number six months ago. 75 is in the middle for expectations. they could say, if we want to show commitment, why not do 100?
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shery: this would constitute an aggressive hike. no wonder traders are saying, we might get recession. it is interesting that they might be precise -- it is interesting that they are pricing for two hikes i the middle of 2020 four. these defensive trades are all the rage. the long dollar call. it is all about rest session hedges rising -- re cession hedges rising. >> garfield reynolds is whether us. and kathleen hays. global stocks in a bear market. how much further shock do we see to sentiment? >> in a lot of ways, sentiment is going to go on being pretty
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gloomy until the fed meets. we have only a couple days before we get that result. in the meantime, we have this very high inflation reading. we have everyone reading -- running ahead of themselves towards higher rates. this is exactly the risk in a lot of ways rates markets around the world have been busy pricing. you had bond investors saying they could not see how rates could possibly go as high and not on a sustained basis as was being priced in by traders but when you have central banks needing to fight inflation and even acknowledging that they have limited tools to fight supply-side driven inflation but they have to fight it anyway, then something like this inflation print and then the expectation that rates could go
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from -- up 1%, double in one go, that is the sort of thing that explains why rates traders were so wary about taking barefoot off the accelerator. -- about taking their foot off the accelerator. it does -- there is not much doubt it is telling you that inflation will cool down anytime soon. crude oil is still high. natural gas and commodities in general. supply chain issues are still with us. it is hard to see yields coming down and stocks going up. shery: what is the likelihood of an aggressive rate hike? we were discussing yesterday that barclays and jeffries said that a 75 basis points hike is in the cards. >> i would say if you listen to
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the majority of expectations, everyone will say, of course, 100 basis points is possible but is it likely? probably not. jeremy siegel from the wharton school said -- this is someone that has been around for a long time. watching the fed for decades. he things the markets are telling the fed, we are worried about you being behind the curve and we would like you to surprise us. let's listen to what he said a couple hours ago on bloomberg television. >> they have already said 50 in june and 50 in july. given the announcement on friday, i think what chairman powell could do is bring that 50 forward. there might be an initial selloff with the one hundred basis points, i think there would be a rally because the fed would have the narrative. >> stephen engle at standard
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charter bank said the fed might want to create this paul volcker moment. and michael at j.p. morgan, a longtime fed watcher, has joined the call for a 75 basis point hike. he said there is a nontrivial risk of the 100 basis point hike. the terminal rate is seeing 4% by the middle of next year in the swabs market. let's look at the other side of the coin. neil from resin on's said, remember, the fed is happy to see financial conditions tightening just with forward guidance. look at the move it has had in bond yields. and he said jay powell may not have the consensus for a series of 50 basis points hikes.
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that is why he thinks this is not going to happen. the final point is -- inflation got higher than expected then people thought but it is in the realm of what the fed has been looking at. is this enough to tell them, we need to speed up now? >> really interesting seeing how bond markets are pricing and pricing again. what are you seeing as we start talking about parts of the market wanting to be surprised? >> well, the one thing that did strike me is we had here in australia last week, we had the market surprised by the rba when it said it would go 15, 20, or 40 but it went 50. that surprised markets. they were not that happy. i don't know how happy markets will be. it is not just the problem -- it
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is the problem is the date it is surprising. either the data needs to come down or investors need to get used to the idea that this is not a transitory phenomenon what is going on with inflation. a war in ukraine is grinding on and there does not seem to be any serious chances for a resolution and if there was a resolution, does that actually solve a lot of problems being created where you are have the biggest oil producer for the rope excluded from most of the global economy? and the impact on food and the rest of that. you have all those issues going on so i'm not sure that a 100 basis point move will surprise investors so much that it somehow fixes things. i don't think there is a quick fix. i do think there is a good chance the fed will go 100 basis
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points and more importantly they will keep going up until inflation cools down. the question is, will inflation come down before they drive the u.s. economy into recession? >> the fed decision could not come soon enough. garfield reynolds and kathleen hays. that's get the first word headlines. vonnie: bank of japan governor says a recent abrupt weakening of the yen is bad for the economy. kuroda pledged to work with the government after the yen hit the lowest level since 1988. the depreciation is fueling concerns among households and businesses. ahead of the boj meeting this week, a new poll suggests a majority of the public does not think he should be at the helm of the central bank. the survey found 59% of respondents found him to be unfit for job of governor. the yen's weakness is largely a result of the position of
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keeping interest rates at rock-bottom levels. day two of hearings into the january 6 attack on the u.s. capitol focused on what then president the riots. william barr and jared kushner said in videotaped testimony that they advised the president against selection claims. donald trump pressed on and raised money. a democratic representative called it a big ripoff. it was national security advisor jake sullivan and china's top diplomat have held talks as tensions grow over taiwan. the white house says they discussed regional and global security issues at a meeting in luxembourg. a seer ash a senior u.s. official said -- a senior u.s. official expressed concerns. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg.
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>> this week is fraught with peril. >> inflation is the achilles' heel of markets. >> markets believe the fed will be forced to get more aggressive than expected. >> i don't think a 75 basis point hike is out of the question. >> there might be an initial selloff from a 100 basis point hike, i think there will be a rally. >> this is the time to be
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selective. i would not sit on my hands. >> there are opportunities in areas where one can position. >> pockets of stocks that have been proven. >> the credit space in the u.s. looks good to us. >> equities, i am still pretty cautious. >> it does not have to be about the u.s. shery: some tv guests from bloomberg. the fed's policy decision and buying opportunities. our next guest says she is moving towards quality across the board. with us now is alan hayes and, chief market strategist at fl putnam investment. good to have you with us. we have heard from wall street being more cautious about buying the debt but even with the selloff and the latest wave of downside, equities have still not priced in all of the risks
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towards corporate earnings even the energy crunch and not to mention the higher costs. we are you finding opportunities? ellen: we are looking for companies that are generating free cash flow. if you look at what has happened over the last several months and the last three days, you have seen real rates rise. rates have gone up. the inflation breakevens have gone down at least today what you are seeing is real rates are going up as well as nominal. what that means is this era of easy money we have seen for the last decade and a half with real rates low or negative is coming to an end. it is clear the fed -- is over. it is clear that all the stuff we learned during our cfa exams and in business school on how you look at companies is over. shery: which companies are they?
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ellen: there is a wide variety of companies in the s&p. we are looking at some that may be unexpected. health care, cvs as a company that generates free cash flow to net income. over 100%. you have a stock trading at around 10 times earnings. a free cash flow yield in the low teens. it is a company whose business will not be slowed down by a slower economy. we also think pnc insurance companies look interesting. companies like travelers are also converting over 100% of their income into free cash. and there are a few tech stocks. broadcom. it generates almost two times as much in free cash flow as net income and they use that to buy up companies make acquisitions and pay down the debt over the ensuing years and they are converting into a software
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company more and more with every acquisition they do. and software companies generate free cash -- a lot of free cash also. it is a market of stocks. i think you can be selective and find companies that are generating cash. the discount rate going up will matter and those companies are going to be ok. haidi: are you quite optimistic about the consumer despite elevated inflation when you take a look at deposit levels as well as fiscal transfers? ellen: the consumer is fairly bifurcated. a year ago every income quintile of consumer in the u.s. was pretty strong. wages were beginning to go up. they had excess savings. more recently, the lowest two quintiles of u.s. consumer has lost -- have lost that excess savings and they are digging into credit. if you look at deposit balances,
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you see weakness starting from the bottom of the u.s. consumer appeared good news from an economic perspective is the top three quintiles are still pretty important in terms of the percentage of consumer spending that they comprise. consumer is beginning to weaken around the edges but the fiscal transfers that took place last year and the year before, a lot of that is still in the bank and you have wages growing on top of that. ages are not keeping up with inflation but are growing. the consumer is in decent shape. haidi: when you look at quality across growth stocks, it feels like when it comes to tech, there is a feeling of throwing out the baby with the bathwater. in terms of the selective approach, where do you see evaluations that are appealing? ellen: we still think some of the semiconductor stocks look interesting particularly here after many came down. the world will not reduce its demand for semiconductors anytime soon and since be -- and because it takes so long to build a plant, supply will not
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increase anytime soon. those companies are the up enemy of a market froth. they did not have earnings. they had enormous valuations. they were unicorns when they were private. they became mid-cap companies when they went public. many of those will not come back. we are picking through the wreckage carefully and finding companies that have solid competitive positioning. and generating a lot of cash flow. haidi: ellen, great to have you with us. you can get a round up the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of debris. terminal subscribers can get that at dayb . can get the news on the industries that you care about. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: here is a quick check of the latest headlines. elon musk has warned his staff it has been a tough quarter as a company struggles with supply chain snags in china. an internal memo was seen by bloomberg. pushing staff to sprint until the finish. tesla is known to deliver many units in the final weeks. oracle jumped in trade after reporting better than expected profit. information technology has not been slowed by inflation. sales increased 5.5% to 11.8% -- a joint venture between paramount global and reliance industries has snatched online streaming rights to the indian premier league crickets. it is a blow to disney's
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screening ambitions. after a bidding war, disney's secured broadcast rights for tv. each deal is said to be worth up to $3 billion according to media reports. let's take a look at the day ahead for australia and new zealand. national australia bank is said to release its confidence report for may. the australian energy market operator which runs gas markets have -- has issued a lack of reserve notices indicating demand may outstrip supply and there has been a warning there could be power cuts. and sports related stocks may get a boost after australia soccer has qualified for the fifa world cup finals in qatar winning a nailbiting penalty shootout early this morning against peru. shery: take a look at the currencies trading at the moment. we are seeing the aussie support it but still below the 70 u.s. dollar level. this as we are waiting the a6
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100 to come back from holidays. we continue to watch the japanese yen. right now unchanged and stabilizing around the 130 four level after touching a 24 year low against the u.s. dollar. this is the weakest level since 1998. we are watching this level as we wait for the boj to carry out additional purchase operation of gbg's -- jgb's. given they do not believe the 2% inflation target is sustainable. though you want -- the yuan touched a thre psst. girl. you can do better. ok. wow. i'm right here. and you can do better, too. at least with your big name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile, you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network.
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>> let's get you a look at asian markets. we continue to see bearish sentiment engulfing almost every part of the market. inflation data is likely to push the fed to a 75 basis point hike and some saying they could well try to surprise markets and go for 100 basis points. this is what we are seeing. aussie futures looking poor. 2.7% lower. pain ahead at the start of the cash trading session. the aussie dollar falling below $.70 -- 70 u.s. cents. we are still seeing a little green when it comes to gains in the aussie. new zealand -- down 2% and
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nikkei futures we will be watching how japan comes online with the bank of japan operations expected today. mobile shares firmly in the bear market with more losses after we saw the surge in treasury yields. the dollar growing on expectations we will see a sharper trajectory when it comes to the fed's interest rate hikes to get inflation under control. a lot of speculation and concern that the recession risks and therefore risks of a rate -- rate cuts in the future are growing as well. vonnie: india's retail inflation slowed to around 7% in may remaining above the central banks 6% target. that's puts -- this puts pressures on policymakers. the are b.i. has already raised rates by 90 basis points this year. steps including tax cuts and fuel subsidies help cool prices
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a little from april. the imf says pakistan -- says pakistan needs to further strengthen its budget. it is seeking an immediate payment to help avoid a potential default. the government has already laid out plans to trim its deficit goal by slashing spending and raising taxes as it tries to reach the imf's conditions. russia is continuing its assault on ukraine's region pushing ukrainian troops out of the center in what is kyiv's last foothold in the area. president zelenskyy in his nightly address calling fighting over a key city they're very fierce. ukraine's top military commander is pleading with his u.s. counterpart to send more military -- more military weapons. nonpermanent residents and foreign students this went out about 300,000 people while still excluding domestic helpers and those planning to emigrate.
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electronic vouchers will be and handed out in august. china semiconductor industry is showing signs of growth despite u.s. efforts to counter it. orders for a chipmaking equipment rose 58% last year making china the biggest market for those products for a second year appeared the biden administration has been pushing for legislation to boost u.s. chipmaking to strengthen competition against china. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: the new york stock exchange says it is in a record level of traffic among traders as u.s. markets enter bear territory. the president spoke to bloomberg about that and the volatility seen in cryptos. >> from the crypto perspective, our parent company was an early investor in the crypto space. we invested in coinbase in 2015
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for $10 million and then we exited that stake last year after coinbase went public. i think we did it to get smarter about the market. we do have a crypto future on our ice futures u.s. platform but until there is clarity around regulation around crypto, i think it is a bit challenging. it is challenging to do more because you need to understand the rules of the road. i think you will see the institution no investor continued cash institutional investors -- institutional investor shying away from that as an asset class. >> i am sure you're watching all markets. i am curious if you see liquidity shifting in the other markets of the world? the right market seems to be extremely volatile. we have seen large intraday
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moves. as your perspective that the markets are equally well-functioning to the stock market right now? >> the treasury markets continue to function well. the interest rates derivative markets continue to function well. our parent company is the home of the european interest-rate market because we live in a global economy. we are seeing record volumes in our own interest rate derivative complex which the markets continue to perform well. matching buyers and sellers. really bolstered in the futures markets. that have been developed in the u.s. and globally. shery: lynn martin speaking with bloomberg. equities and bonds are tumbling but forget about crypto as a potential hedge. remember when that was the narrative for a while? bitcoin has plunged to the lowest in 18 months as celsius froze all withdrawals.
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su keenan joins us with the latest and it did not help risk off sentiment and might -- and monetary tightening concerns and now you have the other brewing problem in defi. >> it adds fuel to the fire. let's drop to the bloomberg. a strong correlation with tech stocks. when they fall out of bed, crypto goes along with it. there is another crisis that has rattled the confidence in crypto and this month after the inflow ocean -- implosion of the terra coin. celsius, a key player in the world of decentralized finance said sunday it was pausing withdraws, swaps and transfers. this followed weeks of speculation on its ability to make good on outsized returns on some of its products. let's get to the crypto charts. this really had almost all of
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the major coins including bitcoin tumbling in a big way. bitcoin to the lowest in 18 months. falling below the 23,000 level. and again, we had ether, its value falling more than 75% below its high. it is hard to remember that bitcoin hit a high of nearly 70,000 in november. the losses have been significant. and the confidence to the bulls continuing to run to the moon as the sentiment was many months ago has really come down. and there is concern it could go lower from here. haidi: we are seeing that play out across the industry. we are hearing two big names cutting jobs. >> crypto.com and gemini announcing cuts over the weekend or that they are now taking place. just another sign, layoffs, that
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there is trouble in the once white-hot crypto sector. blockfi is cutting the most. a layoff of 200. stocks with ties to crypto through their business strategy or their holdings such as microstrategy took major hits. microstrategy down 25% on the day. its founder famously began buying bitcoin in august 2020. and really juiced the rise of his stock but it has backfired as though loss has reached roughly one billion as stocks tied to crypto really fell across the board and double digits or more. haidi: one of the hardest hit segments of the market selloff at the moment. su keenan with the latest from crypto. our next task is betting on a further tumble for the yen
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>> we are unlikely at this stage to go deeper in recession. it is possible, a 50-50 odds. but that is ok. shery: james gorman. recession fears sweeping through markets. betting on a faster pace of fed tightening. annabelle has the morning calls. we were talking about 75 basis point hikes and now 100 and now we are talking about potential recession. what is the latest you are hearing? annabelle: there is a new club. the supersized bandwagon. barclays as the first to start the trend joined by goldman and the latest is jp morgan. all making this call. let's focus on why jp morgan has made the change. they are looking at the university of michigan survey we had a few days ago showing americans' expectations for
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inflation are rising. there are calls out there for a 100 basis points move. jp morgan not calling for that. the chief u.s. economist says it is a nontrivial risk. we see similar moves in the markets as well. traders pricing for 200 basis points of moves over the next three meetings, 75 basis point hikes twice and one half point move. the high inflation print putting this narrative of peak inflation, peak hawkishn ess. haidi: shery: peak yen weakness. one bank says it looks undervalued against the dollar. annabelle: this is an interesting call because we have seen this extreme weakness in the dollar yen but they say it is not at fair value. they are looking instead at the push higher we are seeing in
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treasury yields. the fair value for the yen against the dollar should be 13618. the reason we are not at that level according to credit agricole. they say it is due to the verbal intervention we are seeing from policymakers in japan. we heard from governor kuroda out. he said the extreme drop in the yen is a negative. it did give the yen some support. haidi: looking at a bear selloff or a peak selloff when it comes to sovereign bonds. take a look at the open in australia and new zealand. expecting the slump to be extended when it came to australian sovereign bonds. we are seeing the 10 year yield jump to 3.9%. the three year in particular the most rate sensitive as
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australian bond futures had already been rising to indicate we would be seeing the 10 year high and we continued to see government debt in australia crashing lower on the tuesday session following on the back of treasuries. pricing in expectations of what could be an epic fed interest rate hike this week after we sell consumer prices accelerating to a 40 year high. we saw overnight treasuries tumbling. the 10 year rate the highest since 2011 and more parts of the yield curve inversion. the fears of recession are playing out in the early part of the session here in australia. the biggest slump in australian 10-year debt we are looking at since october. our next test says when it comes to japan the government there has made up its mind to shoe for inflation even if it is the expensive, imported kind. let's bring in martin schulz.
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always great to have you with us. there are some views on the street that the yen is still undervalued against the dollar. martin: i come out of industry so i look at prices and the yen is terribly undervalued. you will find it is at a 50 year long low pure this is amazing. we were talking in the early 1970's about japan as an emerging country. this troubles industry. it troubles the ceos. haidi: is this the kind of pain policymakers are willing to tolerate? and to what point if it gets inflation toward some semblance of the target? martin: while the bank of japan was tapering last year, the current government came in at least verbally on the hawkish
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side. during the last policy meeting a month ago they were under tremendous pressure and they made up their mind. the bank of japan says the domestic economy is what we care about. inflation is not high in japan. the economy might tank and the government made up its mind. it has a huge fiscal spending package that has to be financed by the bank of japan so they are saying -- we are sticking to our guns and we will keep the interest rate fixed. this is what they are planning to do this week as well. shery: no wonder we are seeing the yield differentials driving the yen. i wonder with the pressure now so high on the japanese yen against the u.s. dollar, perhaps even competitors like china and korea not happy with the weakness of the japanese yen, could you see some tweaking or adjustment at the boj this week or later? martin: well, they probably have very little room at the current
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level of pressure to tweak a little bit. letting yields go up at the longer end, they would have to come out with a whole toolset to keep financing the government and how they can keep their regional banks afloat. this is a whole policy package not easily introduced. and even more pressure. right now, china starts to complain and korea and certainly u.s. exporters start to complain, then we will get into a situation where they might do a little bit of intervention here and consider a change in policy. shery: even governor kuroda acknowledges this abrupt movement in the japanese yen is not positive for the overall economy. tell us where the japanese economy is now especially coming out of the pandemic and what we are seeing in terms of pent-up
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demand from households who are becoming poorer given the japanese yen is becoming so cheap. martin: the economy domestically is doing quite well. there is pent-up demand. the restrictions are gone and the borders are opening. we get business delegations coming in. we had all sorts of government delegations. the world is concerned about china more than japan. we have this going. the domestic economy looks pretty good. the current quarter has growth about 5%. the next quarter will be about 3%. i'd is positive but import prices are up 40% squeezing companies and squeezing profits. the outlook is not positive. when i talked to my colleagues, they are not happy about their wages in particular. real wages are getting squeezed and it does not look like the situation could change easily. the pressure on the government will increase. shery: no wonder the boj is
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sticking to the loose policy. arden schulz, chief policy -- chief economist at fujitsu. we will speak with hong kong's chief executive carrie lam about her legacy and hong kong's future. that is later tuesday on bloomberg television. still ahead, australians are facing the threat of power blackouts amid warnings demand could outstrip supply. we will have the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: another big move when it comes to new zealand food inflation. food prices gaining 0.7% month on month, much more than we saw earlier on. when you take a look at it year on year, the price of fruits and vegetables. the previous month we saw food prices rising in the biggest increase since the like 2011, the biggest annual rise and over 10 years according to statistics. we saw prices rising across all categories particularly fresh food. in april, they were up over 18%.
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as we continue to see the surge in global food prices and soft agricultural prices. and energy prices, supply and australia -- the power crisis is deepening. queensland and new south wales facing the risk of blackouts. paul allen joins us now. households are being asked to turn off appliances if you can to preserve and conserve power. what is the situation? >> that is a message from the australian orchid advised -- market operator. they noted a lack of reserves which is a fancy way of saying demand is outstripping supply. the call went out to limit electricity use. there were some blackouts in sydney's northern suburbs overnight but it is unclear if that had to do with a local supply issue. there is a combination of factors at play. it has been unseasonably cold for so early in the winter. a number of power stations are
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off-line because of maintenance. and longer term, there has been a failure to build enough renewable supply that can be connected to australia's grid. shery: australia is the -- one of the world's largest exporters of natural gas so how likely is it for the government to order more gas to stay on shore? >> australia produces a huge amount of gas, three times more than it can consume domestically but almost all of that gets exported. there is a thing known as the gas trigger, the australian domestic gas and security system. this would force gas producers to keep more supply onshore and australia. the resources minister can pull the trigger but it is not a wake fix. it would not come into effect until january 1 i which time winter is long since gone and we are at the height of summer. a lot of australia's gas has already been sold on longer-term
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contracts and pulling the trigger would harm australia's reputation as a reliable supplier. the australian government is holding a reserve -- a review into the trigger to see if some of those shortcomings can be addressed. shery: the latest on the energy squeeze and australia. here is a quick check of the headlines. a pause and withdraws from celsius is sending fresh shockwaves across a digital asset market. a key player in decentralized markets after weeks of speculation. crypto's are still reeling after the recent implosion of the terra stablecoin. citigroup more than doubled its number of senior black executives last year up to nine from four. previously black employees including mid-level managers jumped to 777 from 633 a year earlier. wall street has struggled to
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consistently fulfill promises about representation. citi -- promises about representation and citigroup says there is more work to be done. haidi: take a look at australian futures. we are seeing quite a bit of downside. that is setting up for a downside of -- we are also looking at a bit of weakness when it comes to the aussie dollar sitting under the u.s. $.70 level. some gains but the risk aversion is not playing out for some of these commodities and currencies. kiwi stocks down two percent. food inflation. fresh fruit and vegetables up 10% year on year. we continue to see a trend. nikkei futures will be watched for more yen weakness. jp morgan says recession risk will continue even if a near-term slowdown is avoided.
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