>> every time banks have gone out shooting for inflation, there's been recession. >> maybe a couple of more hundred points downside on the s&p. >> it has created an equity

recession. >> the fed has done a really good job of trading markets to look for upside inflation surprises. >> key question is, has the market priced in maximum fat hawkish mess? we don't think it has. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: it is central bank decision day. from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. federal reserve a little bit later this afternoon. waiting for something from the ecb. tom: scheduled the fed meeting, but this ecb meeting right now, can you imagine chairman powell yesterday afternoon lagarde dials and goes we are going to front run you. jonathan: and they have a tough call to make. how do you thread this needle?

tom: we will see what we see, but i am sorry, this goes back to john monet. the system did not work then and it does not work now. where is the fiscal policy to be a combined cushion. jonathan: that is a fancy way of saying you are worried about what happens with the italian bond market. lisa: the have to actually borrow money and inevitably it is going to slow because of the tightening you are going to see from the ecb. between a rock and a hard place becomes even more difficult for the ecb and they are dealing with a fed that is calling their hand especially given the euro and the weakening ahead of a more hawkish fed. jonathan: you mentioned ecb getting out in front of the federal reserve. a series of media stories this week teeing up 75 basis points.

>> i'm going to go to one moment yesterday afternoon where i it was the wall street journal where will dudley just said look, they are going to go 75 beats and that, to me as a former fed president with a shift in the mood. jonathan: a long list of banks looking for 75 basis points. futures looked like this. a bounce back by .4%. mastec 100 up .6%. -- nasdaq 100 up .6%. we take some of that back this morning across the curve. 33792. lisa: very fluid and very fluid yesterday especially heading into the close. fluid as we await the headlines from the ecb meeting. it was an emergency meeting having to do with italian bond

yields, spanish, greek. how do we get those into a controlled manner at a time when we are tightening echo that is the dilemma for the ecb. as jonathan said, we want details. u.s. retail sales come out. going back to what michelle was saying about how there still is a lot of demand and frankly, you do see people borrowing to support that demand. she talked about that inflation may be outside of food and energy and is not as quick but not coming down the quickly. we get perhaps 75 basis points would be the biggest move going back to 1994 followed by a press conference with the fed chair very much a focus on how much will he signal a terminal race akin to what the market is looking for now which could be as high as 4% next year? jonathan: we are on the same

page. a lot of banks have made a move. i've run through so much research in the last couple of days. tom: the timeline is really important. i think this is a bank of official -- bank of england official. saying we have to keep our heads up. to me, that was very important. jonathan: first time harry? i'm not for that is the bank of england. put futbol team at the end that is probably what we are talking about. i like my friends in the city of london. on the ecb, just a couple of things. we heard they will have an unscheduled monetary policy meeting.

it was going to last about two hours. that is up. it can go longer. we have no idea when we get a statement or if we get a statement after that conclusion. we are waiting for that and when we get it, we will bring it to you. i hear all of this talk about recession risk. i have not seen many people downgrade their earnings estimate. first out of the gate is a recession at the end of next year. tell me why you have not cut your outlook for the s&p just yet. >> a couple of things. what i would say first is that i think it is important to keep in mind there remains a recession for the end of next year but not near term. i think the word everybody is talking about is fluid. things remain pretty fluid.

most of our downgraded earnings as it is about next year building in the slowing growth and recession later this year i think the bigger issue on earnings is what the bottom up consensus is doing and what basically it is building in and what i would argue is that basically the bottom out consensus has 10% earnings growth. on the face of it, there is nothing wrong with that. tom: was that he with us this afternoon. you guys have been absolutely lights out on engaging the conversation. engage this. when you look at earnings shortfalls, can you partition companies from those that are really challenge? >> yes, but with the market really reacting, if you overlay

downgrades or the change in forward estimate -- estimates, you see this pretty tight fit not over the last couple of months where the market way lowers her earnings estimates do matter. keep in mind that every earnings season, the s&p 500 beats on earnings by about 5%. persistent period sort of downgrades is going to be an overhang for the market and i would say the bottom out consensus is while the headline numbers look ok for midcycle or early cycle, they do not look right for late cycle where the consensus of economists for growth is slow and has growth slows next year, earnings will come down. in addition, we have the pandemic hangover as i would call it built into a consensus estimate which got boosted by the -- by the pandemic.

lisa: i am struggling here with this idea we are going to get earnings downgrade. we are seeing the end of free money, real yields on the 10 go up 2.8% after being deeply negative just three months ago and all of this is somehow going to and the s&p at a 4750 by the end of the year. >> i think the key question is, are we going to go into a recession. we have been arguing for some time that the outlook pretty binary. we get down to about 3650 and are almost there already. then it looks pretty binary whether we go into a recession or we don't. recessions are not about temporarily negative really about corporate's becoming risk-averse not great signs yet, but take a look at ceo confidence.

i think the consumer confidence numbers get more attention. lisa: what is your bear case? >> if we going to recession and have a target of housing. recession declines in hindsight were extremely well explained by initial valuations. and the severity of the recession if you use a typical recession, you're on your quarterly decline in earnings of 20 percent, 21% and where we were valued before the pullback began. you are ticking 35% to 45% which would take us to basically 3000. jonathan: if he is right, it is

on the s&p echo >> it is right there is no recession right now and the issue gets resolved in the market and the market starts to price that out. then, we get 4750 by year-end. if we do slide into a recession, we are talking about 3000 on the s&p. you would get to 4750 by may of next year since the market typically starts to -- the bottom is basically halfway through. jonathan: good to clear that up. still very constructive on this equity market. >> i'm is looking at what will drive this. if it is not big tech, can the market compensate for in every other sector considering how far they have to go and big tech, what is the argument there if

earnings are softening much. there was no alternative. others in the cash flow. you are getting yield on an inflation-adjusted business and that changes the equation for a lot of investors. jonathan: still bullish. at the same time, saying the fed will surprise. devilishly relative to what it is now. mike looking for 75 basis points today from the federal reserve. tom: if i said what you said, i would be up on a chart. lisa: i will clarify later. jonathan: yields are down 10 basis points. find that color for lisa abramowicz. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> keeping up-to-date with news from around the world. u.s. democrats appeared to be considering new energy legislation rate 42% on companies with a profit margin greater than 10%. democrats in congress are struggling to lower energy costs. germany's economy had a quick recovery in may with industrial projects increasing. almost 7% contraction, better than -- the u.k. has canceled its fight. they said there is a risk of irreversible harm for asylum-seekers.

european central bank's governing counselors ready to step in if it considers moves in on markets to be unjustified. so they are open to -- global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> i don't want to hear anymore of these lies about reckless spending. we are changing people's lives. and because of the fact this year, we are delivering the biggest drop in deficit in the history of the united states of america. jonathan: president biden speaking with firm words. tip for you, if you spend 10 times as much last year and then spend just five times as much the year before this year, a drop in the deficit, and then you can say your saving money. lisa: are you trying to give some advice to the white house? i'm going to present a financial statement of the family tonight. jonathan: just a slightly narrower, smaller when the next

year. you can see biggest drop in the deficit ever. pretty angry president biden the last couple of days. up .6% on the nasdaq 100. for those of you just tuning in, we understand the ecb have an unscheduled meeting. we also understood that would take about two hours. we have not had any signal of what was actually spoken. waiting for the outcome of that as they try to do something about the european bond market. tom: we do follow the bloomberg. i've sterling working out a little bit stronger but the others are all stuck and what the technical people called penance. we have not seen indicators that we make it out of this ecb meeting. let's go back to maria tadeo and annmarie hordern. we are waiting for the ecb to say something.

what are we waiting for? maria: we are and this meeting is different to the normal policy meetings. that is why we don't have career guidance in terms of one is it going to finish. we don't know what kind of statement we get after it or if we get anything on paper. the idea is that they would be something on it. if you look at the core of the issue right now for the european bond market, it really is about the fragmentation and how do you fight this. christine lagarde said in four times, we are committed to fighting back. this is something in europe, when she speaks, tweets, people do pay a lot of attention. she said our commitment has no limits. i think this meeting is about the specifics. no limits, but what does that mean and that is what the market is hoping to get from this very unscheduled, last second meeting.

tom: there is going to be an unscheduled meeting that drops like a bomb at 1600 pennsylvania avenue. it is such a cacophony right now. what is the next meeting -- what does the marginal meeting look like at the white house? annmarie: you mean the meeting between his aides? today, he is doing an event to mark pride month. i think the frustration you have any saw a little bit of that on display yesterday is what the president called the bane of his existence which is inflation. i would note two things. one is that he has penned a letter to a number of top oil companies talking about refining capacity. you can see the president's frustration in this letter. talking about the crime families are facing and deserve immediate

action. he is saying your companies need to work with my administration to bring forward concrete, near-term solutions. i would also say he is punching this to secretary granholm of energy who is going to be having an emergency meeting. there is really not much the administration can do to alleviate the pain at the pump in the near term and if you look at the report today, it is going to be higher for longer into 2023. lisa: there are emergency meetings. a lot of people have tiptoed around the idea that the stimulus was to pay last year, that this was one of the drivers of inflation and this has been something hanging over the administration. have we gotten a sense of whether this would have been better for them politically to talk to that point? annmarie: i think it depends who

you ask. you've secretary ellen saying we got the path of inflation wrong. that surprised a lot of individuals at the white house. yesterday, you david westin and what he said was that middle-class american families would have been worse off if it was not for that package that many economists including the likes of larry summers have taken aim at the ministrations saying that was going to inflate the economy and it was too much. there is a lot of questions around this regarding secretary ellen because there is a biography that really signals that she was the one raising her hand saying this might be too high and this might increase inflationary pressures. also a fantastic piece talking about the fact administration had begged janet yellen to take that job and what has emerged as

a pattern of her being sidelined. in the first nine months, she was kept out of some of these meetings where treasury had a stake. many regard janet yellen as one of the most bryant -- brilliant minds in the economic world so there are a lot of questions facing the policies of the administration and the paths they have taken. jonathan: policy versus politics. fantastic economist. when it comes to politics, secretary ellen will sit in the hearing and say is not price gouging. the other people in the ministration will run away saying it is price gouging. what is the future for secretary ellen? not getting invited to the meeting to the white house to talk about economics seems utterly bizarre?

annmarie: it does seem bizarre and you question this. she is an economist, she was the head of the u.s. central bank, the head of the fed. this is someone who does not like the political aspect of the job. you do to listening to her in the hearings. may be in the past have just wrestled their way into the west wing. the question is why is she not invited. jonathan: thank you. waiting for a conclusion to this ecb meeting. just saw this from stewart hampton. the italian central bank governor must have locked the doors. that is a joke. no confirmation about whatsoever just in take -- just in case someone took that seriously. the nasdaq 100 up about 6%. yields lower by 11 basis points. from new york, this is bloomberg.

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jonathan: mixing things up for you. a day of gains potentially. a morning of them so far, anyway

, and after five days of losses on the s&p. the nasdaq 100 up around 1%. previous five days, this equity market on the s&p down more than 10%. the bond market, big moves, too. the two-year yield up 70 basis points in five days. retreating this morning, down about 13 basis points. the 10 down 11 basis points to 3.3620%. two-year yield around 20 basis points. big change to where we are now. if you look at the move we have seen in italy, similar kind of story. we have gone from 50 basis points last summer to 3.80% right now. even with a 36 basis point decline on the session so far. why the bay moving europe? we had an unscheduled ecb meeting. have not had a statement or any indication that that meeting is concluded just yet, but the

objective, to set out how they are going to stop italian yields from breaking out even higher. if you look at the spread, the difference between the german 10 year, broke out to about 240 basis points in the last 24 hours, and just inside to 20 at the moment. big changes going on at the moment. tom: for our american listeners and viewers, this is really critical. you lived this early in your bloomberg career. i love dan evans' note this morning, how the eu banks are linked to much more into the price of eu paper. the answer is the you aggregate bloomberg index is down 17%. that is a price decline of 17% that that emergency meeting is dealing with. jonathan: policy transmits much more through the banking channel than through markets because that is where a lot of the funding is done. it is different to the united

states of america. right now, what is happening in italy, in their words, threatens to impair monetary policy. they have what is called an existential threat. we always talk about the mandate of central banks. the ecb is not the inflation targeting story. it is the existential threat to the euro zone. that is much easier to address when inflation is low and you can go max dovish. much harder to address when you are set to raise interest rates because inflation is too high. that is the dilemma this ecb president faces today and will continue to face the rest of this year. euro-dollar south of 1.05, positive 0.6%. that is across a set price action. let's get you some single names with bramo. lisa: the single stock moves really are a macro story as

well. we are seeing people trying to find a bottom, trying to retrace some of the losses we have seen. the biggest losses now mean the biggest gainers i had the market. apple shares up almost 1%. you can see amazon up more than that. at a pop is the biggest -- meta is the biggest gainer here, and i think that is interesting. it is up 1.5%. people trying to find a bottom, trying to see value in the selloff. we will see if it holds. yesterday it did not. today a very volatile session no doubt. if we take a look at the area not doing well, it is having to do with crypto amid this crypto winter. coinbase in particular down another 2% ahead of the open. it was down much more than that. we talked yesterday about how coinbase came out of said they were going to cut keeping percent of their staff because the adoption just was not there from the institutions. i'm struck by the people who left big wall street firms to

work for a place like coinbase and were told they don't have a job anymore because this market is changing that quickly. the other bitcoin proxies also down across the board, although they are coming back a little bit. how much are people trying to bottom feed or figure out what the losses are done? tom: i urge everybody to go to all these names we don't know anything about and read their websites. riot chain -- riot blockchain is endeavoring to be the driver of the future of american mining in bitcoin. lisa: i know you're skeptical. people were thinking this could potentially be a market. i'm excited to speak with peter tchir later in the show because he has said there is systemic risk to this given all of the energy that goes into producing crypto assets, to creating the ecosystem, and that is all evaporating at the same time retail investors are losing their shirts.

there is some systemic importance of that. tom: the finance minister in france out with a headline, avoiding fragmentation is euro area priority. we learned a lot from that, didn't we? jonathan: not really. tom: let's get to it within an emergency easy beating -- emergency ecb meeting and a fed meeting in june. amanda lyman is senior credit strategist at goldman sachs. how do you think about the last five hours, given the emergency meeting of a major central bank? amanda: thanks for having me. we are responding to the very dynamic environment use our earlier this week. we marked our spread forecast wider again to reflect an additional rebuild of risk premium through the second half of this year. you alluded to earlier in the show the significant decline in bond prices across the high-yield markets. that is almost entirely driven

by the move in rates. the point that we emphasized earlier this week is if you were to take spreads and look at them relative to the post financial crisis period, they are still hovering around the median. tom: i totally agree with the spread analysis, but help mere mortals that are not in the sophisticated spread market of amanda lynam. you are telling me price decline doesn't matter? amanda: we are seeing they both matter, so the lack of widening on the spread basis introduces a vulnerability into the corporate bond market that has not yet repriced to reflect the very narrowness of the soft landing that our economists ultimately expect. so while it is true that bond valuations have repriced significantly lower because of the rate volatility, we still have yet to see spreads truly reflect the very challenging

growth inflation and policy risks in the corporate bond market, in both the u.s. and europe, so what we did earlier this week is we marked our spread forecast further wide to reflect that additional rebuild of risk premium, and that is reflective of a very challenging macro backdrop now. our economists are still not viewing a recession as their base case, but clearly financial conditions continue to tighten, investors are needing to digest and even more hawkish monetary policy stance, and we also see some room for credit to catch down to equities. if you look at credit spreads in isolation, they have not sold off that much, even relative to cross asset. tom: is this year's word catch down? can we make a decision on that in june, or do we have to wait until late autumn? lisa: that will be the subject of our meeting later today after our second round of shows.

jonathan: no one believes there's a meeting for the show between the three of us. lisa: i am fully aware of that. how do you factor in liquidity risk at the same time as trying to understand recession risk, at a time when a lot of people are saying there just is no trading? if you want to sell, you will catch no bids. amanda: we were having a conversation where we were seeing flashing yellow signs of liquidity in the corporate bond market. those have further intensified. there are a range of metrics we track, certain liquidity measures, intraday volatility. they are all starting to pick up, whether you look on a kind of five day moving average basis or somewhat longer, and definitely over the last few trading sessions. very indicative of what we are seeing real time. i think for some investors, they are using it as an opportunity to step in and provide liquidity to the market, but absolutely it is a very challenging macro backdrop, in addition to the fundamental pictures that the

liquidity backdrop has further exacerbated. lisa: just 30 seconds here, but would you step into this liquidity absence? would you say this is a good time or not because of that expectation for spreads to widen further? amanda: selectively to be up in quality. i think we have really emphasized we are preferring ig over high-yield. i think of near-term, high yield versus leverage loans is a bit more of a balance, risk-reward. we tweaked that earlier this week to become neutral between the two. still prefer u.s. over europe. so i think selectively you could play some capital, but to be very clear, we expect a continued rebuild of risk premia through year end, so we think it is important to stay up in quality. strong pricing power, companies that don't have the vulnerabilities on the supply chain, labor shortages. jonathan: amanda, thank you, on this fed decision day. haven't talked about it much

this morning. retail sales, 8:30 eastern time. we've barely even discussed. not even on the radar for some people. just to get everyone up to speed on the survey, we put together all these forecasts come of the estimates from all these economists on wall street, the median is still 50 basis points today, but as mike mckee pointed out to me this morning, most of the new forecasts if you go inside the bloomberg and look at how they are dated, most of the new ones have led towards this idea get 75. lisa: i am struck by what dominic cost him said earlier on the show, that it would be a bigger negative if they do not go 75 basis points. this is a fed credibility issue. how much is that going to be the main discussion points through the remand are of the day? jonathan: the ecb meeting, still haven't got an outcome from that meeting. just waiting for this statement to drop. tom: chairman powell is having his pop tarts and tang down at

the eccles building. jonathan: is that when he has on decision day? tom: we talked about it once. i want to know, what outcome are we expecting from the ecb? jonathan: i will tell you what people want to see. i have no idea what we will see. what they want to see is a detailed plan, a mechanism, an outline of how they intend to cap italian bond yields. it is clear to me is this idea of reinvesting pepp selectively. i don't know if that gets done. the market will decide. tom: yield up, price down. i think that's the way it works. jonathan: that's been the story in this bond market. yields are lower by 11 or 12 basis points on the 10 year. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. global oil supply will struggle to meet rising demand next year,

which means consumers will continue to face tight fuel markets, according to the international energy agency in its first assessment of 20 don't three. they say a resurgence chinese, he will bolster consumption, while sanctions on russia will cut will output. european energy consumers are bracing for even higher prices due to possible disruptions to supply from russia and the u.s. gas flows have reduced from nord stream by 20%. a fire at a u.s. lng terminal also threatened prices. a tweet by an influential hedge fund that has been liquidating crypto holdings as prices have plummeted is creating new apprehension in the industry. the former credit suisse group trader tweeted, "fully committed to working this out without fighting." there has been no further comment. heavy rain and rapid snow melt at yellowstone national park

triggered flooding that tore up bridges and damaged nearby homes. the raging waters may force roadways to be rebuilt elsewhere. the unprecedented flooding drove more than 10,000 visitors out of the nation's oldest national park, which could stay closed for a week. nobody reportedly was hurt. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪

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>> i don't think the whole crypto economy is going to collapse, nor do i think blockchain is going to disappear. i don't think people are going to abandon the concept of good to currencies this because the market is down for the last couple of weeks. jonathan: david rubenstein there, the cofounder, cochair of the carlyle group. it is fed decision day and apparently ecb decision day as well. an unscheduled meeting a little earlier this morning, set to

last two hours. it has been two hours 50 minutes, and no sign of what the outcome was, if indeed there is an outcome. teachers up 0.7% on the s&p 500. it is a turnaround on this market. barely a bite out of what we have seen so far. for anyone following the detail of this, we have not seen the outcome of this governing council meeting, but one member of the governing council, the portuguese chief of the central bank, speaking in lisbon, is delivering a presentation now. kind of bizarre, right? because we still don't know what the outcome of that meeting was. tom: we are going to continue to attribute this, and what we can say is bloomberg reports that he is speaking. there's something about the bank of portugal forecast. it does not look to me yet like markets are moving. i've got euro at 1.469.

jonathan: just strange we haven't seen a statement from the ecb we were told to place this meeting coming at one of the numbers of the governing council is out there doing a presentation in lisbon. tom: i'm looking at weaker euro. i look at it like the ecb is probably using the peter tchir method, which is make it up as you go. peter tchir joins us right now, head of microstrategy and make -- head of macro strategy and making it up as you go at academy securities. not a snarky question, but a serious one. is the bond market right now the central banker of the united states of america? peter: i think the bond market is in control of things, and i'm increasingly concerned that the lack of liquidity is letting us move too far, too. unless we tame inflation and get some of this under control, i think we are at a real risk of much higher yields, especially with what is going on in europe. the italian and spanish yields

are leading the way, and that is dragon global yields around -- that is dragon global yields around. lisa: does it happen quickly or all at once? do we see something that gets the fed's attention that is driven by low liquidity and a sense of uncertainty around both fed policy and how high yields could go? peter: i would not be surprised if we get a two or three point move in the long bond, largely due to a lack of liquidity. not sure which direction it would go. i would have thought a month ago it would be a gap to lower yields. now it feels like if we get a gap it will be a dislocation and an air pocket move to a much higher yield. temporary, but it will disrupt markets. lisa: we have not talked about bitcoin very much in this show, yet the losses have been shocking. made a point yesterday that really struck me, that there is a systemic import to the losses in the cryptocurrency complex, that it feeds into the larger market in a way that perhaps some people are not expecting. do you still think that is the

case, that it could be a systemic risk those economically and on a market basis? peter: i think there's two main groups of crypto investors. the relatively small, aggressive people who may get wiped out. i think they were using a lot of margin. that will have some impact on the economy, but i don't think a huge one. the other part is wealthy people who view cryptocurrencies as a core part of their asset allocation. they also tend to invest heavily in disruptive stocks. then they use some of the big tech almost as their equivalent of a bank account, so they were a very aggressively positioned, and that is getting unwound right now. as you start looking about the month of spending that was going on in advertising for crypto, the number of conferences, the number of jobs created, the number of semiconductors that were bought to support crypto, if the slowdown is real, and i think it is, you could see a knock on effect into the economy that we would not have thought about two or three years ago?

why am i going to see a knock on effect? peter: because i think the wealth creation has hit stocks in particular. there's less money. these people were spending money. you will see a cut down on conferences, less spending on the rigs required to do the mining. the one offshoot that might be good for us is lower energy costs as crypto stocks become less of a drain on energy. but i think we are going to be surprised how impactful crypto is, especially in the new york and california area, where the amount lost is terrible. tom: the accounting of this i find extraordinary. if we go from 21,000 down to 10,000 or from 60,000 down to 10,000, that signals the collapse of the scheme, doesn't it? peter: to a large degree, yes. the prior guest highlighted we are only down a couple of weeks. the reality is no one has bought crypto in the last two years and held onto it and is now up

money. tom: this is important. i got a lot of shade yesterday on david rubenstein's comments. lisa, you were part of that. mr. rubenstein made clear original founders of bitcoin still are and a. mr. tchir is saying in the last number of years, that is not true. people here have huge losses. lisa: we are seeing the end of a regime, and it will be exemplified by what we hear today at 2:30 p.m. from the jay powell. what do you think he could do to create some calm, a greater backdrop of certainty to a market that has had anything but? peter: i think he's going to try to shut the system. i think the market will probably react well to that initially on the view that they will try to get ahead of this and action, and then i think over the next couple of days, the sad reality is we will deal with much higher short-term rates. that is going to slow down the

economy, and just briefly back to bitcoin, one thing that is also important is we are starting to see the system come up. you've had this kind of collection of networks that all work together. i think people are really going to question that. we talk about the lehman moment. it was never a moment. it was just part of a process. i think it is going to create a lack of trust, and a lot of people are sitting out there at 20,000, maybe 5000. i think that is the problem, and i think the fed fighting inflation today will push crypto lower. jonathan: you are one of the best. love hearing from you. peter tchir of academy breaking things down for us. this is bizarre with the ecb this morning. they scheduled and unscheduled meeting. by definition, i guess it is now scheduled. it took place at 5:00 a.m. eastern time. we were told it would last about two hours. we had a couple of scheduled ecb speakers today, one of which is the portuguese central bank

chief, do to speak at about 7:30 eastern time. he started his remark to deliver a presentation that was already previously scheduled, but we still have not found out the outcome of what the ecb meeting was this morning. tom: this is unusual, folks. jonathan: just a bit. tom: they are truly making it up as they go. let me look at this chart. i rarely do this on "bloomberg surveillance," but today is so historically unusual. that is the euro charge. that is not the one i wanted. but to your observation, things change june 9. what i can tell you is the standard deviation move and the so-called convexity from june 9 is shocking. that is why you are having this emergency meeting. jonathan: and we are waiting for the details, the outcome of that meeting. bizarre. futures up 1% on the s&p. on new york city on this

central-bank decision day, this is bloomberg.