>> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide in silicon valley and beyond, this is bloomberg technology with emily chang. emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is bloomberg technology. the fed raises interest rates by 75 basis points, the biggest increase since 1994. stocks rallied. what this could signal about a possible recession. plus, new funds launching even in a downturn. the heavy hitters behind the $450 million fund, including a top morgan stanley alum. and elon musk getting even more political as he reveals who he is backing for president in

2024, as he prepares to address employees at an all hands meeting, divided on whether he will save the company or destroy it. first, this they will go down in history. the fed raising interest rates by 75 basis points, the most in almost 30 years. jay powell gave his views in the fight against overly high inflation. ed ludlow is here with more. ed: an effort to calm prices. this historic day -- 75 basis points by taking the federal funds rate to 1.5%, for the interest rate could rise to 3.4% by the end of this year, 3.8% by the end of next year. saying the fed is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2% objective, which is a long way from where we are.

it warranted a bigger hike today, according to powell. there is no sign of a slowdown. the markets green on the screen. there is not one main takeaway. the s&p 500 up 1.5%. the nasdaq is up 2.5%. a pullback in yields. a drop in the dollar. the bloomberg dollar index down 0.9%, the biggest shift since may. no one takeaway. the markets looking at powell's words, thinking of the past. >> i do not expect moves of this size to be kind. from the perspective of today, a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting. ed: this is the nasdaq 100. after jay powell uttered those words around the size of

potential increases going forward, you see what the nasdaq 100 does. the market having a relief rally, saying we understand where we stand now. this is very interesting, but there is a lot going on. it is always in the data. the federal reserve is going to keep an eye on inflation and make decisions. emily: thanks for showing us that data. bitcoin falling to just above $20,000, paring its losses. sonali basak breaks it all down. the bad news for crypto seems to come from all directions. sonali: even they are risk assets rise in markets, you did not see bitcoin rise. you saw a pair its gains, but we are still seeing it decline. it is slowing. market watchers are watching for the levels they saw at the peak of the last cycle. we are looking at 19,511. it is a worry area you start

stepping into with bitcoin, and we are not quite there yet. let's look at ethereum, nearly 1% decline over 24 hours for bitcoin. ethereum dropped less, only about 0.7%, less than that. if you have a terminal, you will see a lot of altcoins rising. what else you see rising -- coinbase. it is up 2.6% or so. that comes as we reported about the shark that so many coinbase employees have been feeling with the job cuts that are happening now across the industry and it coinbase. coinbase employees described this as impersonal and surprising. i want to pull up a tweet. what a strange week it has been. this is a tweet from brian a couple of days ago, responding to the idea on a y combinator

post, saying that coinbase employees had elected to oust the executive. he responded saying he had no confidence -- if you have no confidence in the executive of the company, you should quit and work at a company you believe in. this comes days before a lot of these job cuts planned. emily: pretty interesting tweet storm from brian armstrong. you think about the human faces behind these layoffs we will bring you back for a deeper dive in our crypto report. the market decision to raise rates by 75 basis points -- victoria green joins us now, the chief investment officer 4g squared. what do you make of the market rally after this historic rate hike and all of the turmoil we have seen over the last couple of days? victoria: i think there is relief that powell is doing something, but we will probably wake up tomorrow and realize

nothing has changed. the fed is still dovish. rates are coming up. they are willing to sacrifice very low unemployment. they have got to tame inflation. we look at this and say the economy is still going to slow down. i know we are talking about what kind of landing is allowed, a crash and burn or a soft landing. i think there are a lot of factors beyond his control. ceo's are saying what jay powell has said real we can have unemployment come up, which is historically low. we could see that come up, but we will be in a recession emily: when you say it is out of our control, what do you think the scenario we are going to be looking at over the next asked months to a year will be? is it a recession with a capital r or a small are? -- small r?

victoria: i think it will not be a 2008 redo, but i think you will have a lot of people seeing pressure unemployment. there has already been pressure on the consumer. the u.s. economy lives and breathes and will die if consumer slows down, because you need that spending at walmart and target and all the retailers. they are saying there is already a change in consumption patterns. customers are focused on buying food and gas and paying rent. i do not think jun's number is going to look better than may look at gas prices and rent prices. as we have these pressures build and build, i think san francisco people -- if you don't have an earthquake in a while, you get worried that the next one will be the big one. we want to relieve these pressures on the economy, but it

is near impossible when you have prices where they are. emily: what does this mean for big tech companies that have been writing high for years? victoria: they are not going to die. the problem is -- there is a question with the market right now. i think this is more of a relief rally then a further leg down. where are your earnings going to come from? you are willing to pay a multiple if you are confident they are going to grow their earnings and have a future trajectory. i think right now everybody is putting a pause, with layoffs at tech companies, microsoft worried about earnings growth. you wonder, how much should i be paying for this stock right now is to mark they are not growing their earnings. i originally thought they were. how much should i pay for them? i think there will be pressure, and the are different. netflix is facing increased competition.

that is a little different than the pressure amazon is facing. they are facing issues with too much storage space, working on all these price pressures with fuel and delivery cost. it is not uniform across the board. also, what these tech companies deliver -- how essential are they to him or are they discretionary, or does the world slow down? netflix may still be at risk even though it is priced as a value stock now. if people are looking at cutting streaming, you are looking at a raft of audience. emily: they have already dropped significantly. we spoke to a ceo yesterday who reminded us that cisco shares peaked in the.com boom. they still have not recovered. you are looking at a 20 plus year chart. which of the big tech giants do

you think could end up being the cisco of today? victoria: i hate to be a negative nelly. again, i will point to netflix. i think netflix is facing such a change the landscape from where it was five or 10 years ago, or even two years ago, with the number of streaming services that have popped up, the competition they face. and they may have more backlash. they are facing the wrath of the people that don't like that this is a less friendly company, or seen as a less friendly company to deal with. i think they could be at risk, and you could look at the pandemic darlings, the zooms of the world, which looked fantastic, but at the same time you have teams and everybody else who figured out how to teleconference better. when i look at the potential tech bubble, i think it is those who face competition and cannot innovate. emily: how do you view the

crypto meltdown? how does crypto survive this? victoria: crypto needs to figure out what it is. was it a hedge against central-bank spending and ration? we have seen it is not that. there is a regulation hurdle. right now, it is trading like a tech stock. it is not really providing diversification but it's or a buffer, and it is definitely not providing an inflation offset.

start of a fintech revolution. i think we are still in the early innings of it. as for how people are going to use it and integrated in their lives and how it is regulated and taxed -- that question might be thought out this year, but we may see some bigger players come into the market because they feel a little more comfortable. you look at some of the recent crypto blowups, and it has put a bit of a check on people. this is not a secure investment. there is a risk of loss. there is fantastic technology, and i think blockchain is innovative, but we have to figure out how to use it. i'm not buying a car with bitcoin on my app. it is to volatile. it is not cash. what will it be? we need to figure out what is bitcoin as an investment. we will see. emily: victoria green, chief investment officer, inc. you for joining us. coming up, my exclusive interview with amazon ceo andy jaffe on how the e-commerce giant is navigating inflation and putting more pressure on millions of shoppers. ♪

emily: on studio 1.0, my exclusive interview with amazon ceo andy jaffe about inflation, supply chain shortages, and customers getting squeezed by higher prices of everything from gas to groceries. we spoke in our bloomberg technology summit. take a listen. andy: i think we have businesses growing really strongly. if you look at aws in 2021 group 37% year on year, which is unusual growth. we grew 58% year-over-year in

our advertising business, so the business is growing really strongly. we continue to grow in our retail business despite pretty crazy comparables during 2020. i think the real challenge is on the cost side. there have been several things that happened, some of which were more controllable than others. what is less controllable is really around inflation. we saw inflation start to attenuate in 2022, and with the war in ukraine, it significantly accelerated. the cross of trucking, ocean, air, and fuel has substantially gone up. no one knows how long that will take to attenuate. i think the more controllable areas for us are around productivity. it was taking about 24 months to go to fulfillment centers during the pandemic, so we had to make decisions in 2020 and early 2021

about how much demand we were going to plan for. we end up with more capacity than we need right now. there are a number of things we are working on. we have stopped building properties where we don't need them yet, and we have let lisa slaps, and not a small number. we have had occasions in our history where we have made improvements, and there are clearly defined issues. emily: you are going to some loose -- sublease 30 million square feet of space. is there a mistake in the execution? andy: because you have to make these decisions two years in advance. if you put yourself back in 2020, where we were going 39% year-over-year on a $200 billion revenue run rate, it is hard to know, and you have to make a decision. we made the decision on the side of our consumers and sellers. emily: elon musk said he has a super bad feeling about the economy, laying off 10% of his staff.

jamie dimon says he is preparing for an economic hurricane. the world bank slashed its estimate for global growth. how do you feel? is it bad, or super, super bad? andy: i think there are things that relate to amazon that are useful to remember. the first piece is remember that 85% of the worldwide retail market segment share is off-line. and if you believe that that equation is going to flip at some point -- i think we will flip over a long period of time. if you look at different downturns, and we have been through a few, in 25 years i have been at amazon -- customers change their habits. i think those two reasons, those two factors give me optimism

that even if we have a downturn -- if we have a roadmap that is three to five years long, we will continue to invent. we will continue to be insurgent. we have a lot of work to get to where we think we can ultimately get for customers. emily: you can catch my entire interview with andy jaffe wednesday on bloomberg studio 1.0. it is the end of the internet explorer. microsoft has officially retired its once-dominant rouser. and according to statcounter, it is still causing some panic among businesses and governments. japan might be the hardest hit. 49% of companies still use internet explorer. coming up, as the markets grapple with intensifying inflation, employees are facing the brunt of it as more and more companies look to lay off and save some cash.

we will have more on that, next. ♪

emily: as we watched the fed issue its biggest rate increase since 1994 in an effort to restrain rampant inflation, it might be too late for tens of thousands of employees facing layoffs in a slowing economy. we watched companies across different sectors announced layoffs -- crypto, fintech, and even real estate. redfin announced they were cutting more than 900 jobs combined. for more on the broader real estate market during this downturn, i'm joined by patrick clark, who covers this for us. was it surprising to see these layoffs in the real estate tech business, given how much the real estate market was booming? patrick: i think in january it

might have been surprising by march or april, as rates started going higher and sales started slowing, less surprising. by the time companies reported earnings in may, it almost felt inevitable that they were going to need to downsize. they are somewhat different businesses, but the employees are available as making software for agents, or -- if there are agents, there is a different compensation structure. but as a point where there are fewer home sales and there is less commission revenue coming into the brokerage, it feels inevitable that they are going to have to cut. emily: we have seen tech companies announcing layoffs --

robinhood, coinbase, reddit just announced more layoffs today. what do these real estate technology companies in particular -- them announcing layoffs, what does this say about the housing market? patrick: the housing market is slowing. we don't know exactly how long it is going to take. the redfin ceo said in the memo announcing the layoffs that sales were -- the volume was 17% lower in may for his company. and it would likely be years, not months, before the situation resolved itself. given that, these companies have a long road ahead. they enjoyed during covid with the best possible conditions for themselves.

that is not just redfin and compass, but zillow, open-door, many others. these companies did not make money in past housing markets, pretty much ever. so they will be in for a new narrative now. emily: we recently heard from amazon ceo andy jassy talking about letting leases run out, amazon subletting its own space. is it something we will see a lot of companies grapple with, what to do with real estate they have picked up, or in the pandemic that some folks hold back in real estate? patrick: so far, it seems there is demand for industrial real estate. amazon just recently -- there was a big merger announced in the industrial real estate space , the company that was the big

landlord to amazon about a third company which is even more exposed to amazon leases. if amazon pulls back a little, there could be a feeling in the commercial real estate world that there is still a bigger shift coming, and there is the ability to fill warehouse demand. emily: patrick clark, thank you for your insight. coming up, it is the new fund in town. it launches after raising $450 million. what it is like raising and launching in a downturn. where are they going to place their bets? we have the founders with us next. ♪

emily: welcome back to "lumbar technology. i am emily chang in san francisco real $450 million, defying the gloomy morale among private take adventures. spv is a debut fund from some morgan stanley alums, which will emphasize early-stage deals where they have experience. they are joining me now. i want to ask you both about the markets and the tumult we are seeing today. you rose to the top of the ranks at morgan stanley and cisco in earlier days. what do you make of what is happening right now is to mark what kind of macroenvironment are we headed for? >> it is no surprise. interest rates are like gravity. when they are really low, we have a lot of higher valuations.

as it rises, gravity goes up, and things fall. we are seeing that now. the fed announced 75 basis points. somewhat expected in the last 20 hours. what it means is cost of capital is expensive and just got more expensive faster. it does mean a move away from alternative asset classes. we are so excited to have closed the fund during this environment to make sure we have dry powder as founders continue to be born in these environments, regardless of capital getting more expensive. it is not lost on us, this downturn. in the downturn, some of the best companies have been born -- google, airbnb, alaska air -- these were all born in more expensive capital environments, and the founders are going to

continue to be coming around. we will make sure we have capital to support those. emily: leslie, as someone who has gone through a couple of these, how bad do you think this effect is going to be? is it went to look like 2008, 2000, or something else? leslie: it probably looks like 2000. it will see companies close shop. you will see layoffs, which is unfortunate. people keep forgetting about the upside, which is that companies like google and airbnb were armed in this crucible. i was at google in early 2001, and there was no other company hiring. it came out of that moment when they were able to hire employees for relatively low cost. we were getting discounts of up to 80% on stuff. engineers from top schools wanted to come and work google. what seems like crisis -- there is massive upside for the

companies. i was firsthand at google and i got to see the build of one of the most world changing companies from the early days. emily: pegah, you used to work at cisco, where the stock is still not what it was before the .com bust. which companies are going to be the cisco of today, and which areas do you think you are going to see that kind of destruction to mark who is going to be the google? pegah: i think when we were early-stage, we really focused on mission-driven founders who have hundred year plans, and long-lasting businesses. those founders think about the cost of capital not being cheap. they care about unit economics. they care about being able to grow even with more expensive capital. you look at companies like cisco. because they were not growing as

fast, they have focused on gross margin. you will have to have a shift when capital is not as cheap. you have to shift more toward making sure you can survive these higher cost environments where you have to be well-capitalized to do that. there are companies doing that now. you look at those that are well-capitalized. they have great 100 year missions ahead of them. i think it is really about time horizon and knowing there are going to be some bumps in the short-term, and making sure you are set up for really taking off during these times. emily: you mentioned canva, fle xport, plaid. wesley, what advice are you giving to founders in this downturn? my former colleague eric newcomer said that a lot of advice from vc's sounds more

like marketing speak. wesley: i saw that too. i totally agree with eric. never let a great disaster go to waste. bill campbell was a person i had the privilege of working for, as i chronicled in my book, and he would come up to larry and sergey all the time and they, the economy is crashing. take advantage of it. seize the moment. that is the advice we give to these founders. they behave as if every dollar is their last, even though folks have with the company on the credit card before anybody believed in them. when you are doing well, when you are very careful with capital, when you are sitting on a large hoard of cash and you are comfortable, it is a fantastic opportunity to seize the moment and hire the top talent for half the price in an

economy where it is booming. and go and sell products and businesses that people want. with google, it shows how incredible the outcome is when you seize the moment. this is not about laying off people and preserving cash. you have partners when the moment is right. emily: are you guys going to be leaning in to crypto or not? eric wrote that some vc's are rightly telling him they never believed in crypto anyway. pegah: i will say it. wesley, i think in november, when he was on stage, when crypto was at its high, he actually called it. we are not investing in this fun for those types of businesses, and we have to understand the underlying value. wesley, you want to take it to market called it on stage.

get out at the peak. emily: where is the bottom estimate? wesley: bill gates called it the greater fool model. the business is predicated on finding a greater fool to pay for your investment in crypto. when all the fools are out, there is nobody left to buy up your investment. we have never done any crypto investment. people made fun of us for avoiding it, saying we were the guys not getting rich off of it. today, it is crashing like crazy. bitcoin almost dropped below 20,000, an all-time low. there are founders that we invested in that do not do crypto business. a lot are blue-chip charities and foundations. one is a foundation that provides underprivileged kids

access to the performing arts. we do not want to put their money where it is dependent on greater fools. we want things that add value to the world and to the customer over a long time horizon. they do really well. emily: what was it like closing the fund in a downturn is to mark did you have any moments of panic? pegah: it was really early on. we started in february. we were humbled by the reception we got. russia decided to start a war in ukraine and we were like, what is happening? is this the right time? we were really lucky that we made the choice at the right time, but most of the commitment happened early on. we are excited to have this dry powder.

they are going to need capital. emily: we are excited to watch where and how you put your capital to work cofounders, thank you both. bitcoin underwater. how that is impacting the markets, and what to make of that plunged toward 20 k. all of that and more with the coin shares street -- chief strategy officer? ♪

emily: the bear market for

bitcoin entering its deepest, darkest phase, with even long-term holders who took it out now coming under extreme pressure. two thirds of crypto hedge funds would fail if the market keeps tumbling. sonali basak is here to talk more about those concerns. take it away. sonali: we had talked about tokens and projects facing pressure in the last couple of weeks, but now we are talking about the investors themselves. one company i worry about his three arrows capital after a big tweet from a founder saying they are in the process of communicating with partners and committed to working this out. what does that mean and what is the future for a company like we arrows? remember, three arrows was very exposed to luna, which collapsed earlier this year. they had invested prior to that collapse. it is not just the collapse of

luna. there is a broader decline in crypto assets that has been severe. a lot of deleveraging. the question is how far will that washout go, as funds liquidate many of the assets they hold. emily: a very cryptic tweet indeed. stick with us. i want to talk about this with our next guest, cohen shares chief strategy officer, meltem demirors. our guest said he called the top and the bottom is further down from where we are now. what is your reaction to that? meltem: [laughter] great to see you both. i wish it was under better circumstances. everybody has been wanting to call the top since the beginning of it going. i have been in this industry professionally for seven years. one trend is not going away. we continue to see higher highs as well as higher lows, and with current price is around 20,000, we're still above all-time highs

in the last cycle. we could see an 80% to 90% drawdown because this is a volatile, highly cyclical asset. at coinshares, we continue to invest in great technology businesses that are changing the world for the better and generating fantastic returns for investors. i think it is a matter of time. last year, crypto commanded by percent of all venture dollars. this year, we are looking at around the same, if not slightly higher. i think richter is here to stay, but the proof is in the returns, so we will see what the your brings area sonali: -- future brings. sonali: others are saying the right number to look at is $19,011, the high the coin hit during the cycle in 2017. is that the right number to watch for? if we get below that, which we are close to, how bad is it? meltem: i am not tethered to the big number. that phrase tether might use

some alarm bells, but i had to work in a crib upon. i'm not concerned about that previous all-time high number. we're looking at liquidation levels. we are seeing a lot of people -- given the structure of debt in the crypto market, you have to collateralize, and given that these markets are to when he four/seven, you can get liquidated in an in. there is no margin calling. so what we are looking at is liquidation levels. the other key number to look at is the drawdown from peak to trough. the last cycle, we saw an 85% drawdown from peak to trough. this cycle, the high was around 59,000, so an 80% to 90% drawdown that would put us between 7000 and 14,000. we could go a bit lower, but we are seeing strong support around this 20 k number, and we are liquidation slow. sonali: speaking of more

selling, this idea of three arrows and worries for other funds in the industry -- the problem with funds facing trouble is more liquidation, so the question i have for you is how systemic can this get. how can some issues beget more issues here, to create some of those drawdowns you are talking about? meltem: i think that is exactly the challenge here. one of the great issues in crypto is there tends to be an asset/liability mismatch that happens whenever there is a drop in price. there is more collateral that needs to be posted to keep the leverage in the system, and positions tend to be over collateralized and can be called at any point in time. so we kind of see this vicious cycle where your liabilities decrease in duration. the long-term viability becomes a short-term one when you need cash, and then we have on the flipside you are investing in ventures, long-term, locked up

investments. your more long-term assets, you do not have as much short-term cash or the short-term salable assets you have have declined in some cases 90%, or in the case of luna, 100% in value, so you have this mismatch that gets exacerbated. there is no duration on debt in crypto yet, and so there is a potentially recursive pattern where margin calls lead to spot selling, which leads to spot selling, more margin calls. we need to see the stop selling to stop before we find stability here. sonali: this is a pivotal moment. it has been a steep drawdown, as you mentioned. what is the wake-up call here? what are the things people are flocking to that are longer-term projects in nature that are maybe safer to make it through this crash? meltem: for us at coinshares, we manage billions of dollars in assets. we trade in markets. risk management is the number

one principal. the fundamentals of finance don't go away just because we are in a new asset class, so managing your liabilities, managing your assets, managing duration is really important. risk management is a thing we tend to forget about because we don't need it as much when we go up, but now that the number is going down, i think we are seeing who has not been managing risk. trading markets of any type, be cognizant of the inherent risk you were taking in your business model and your position, making sure you manage that risk. the added wrinkle of crypto is there is this really interesting structural change in the market because all of these assets are trading 24/7, 365. it adds volatility and pressure. the second new wrinkle is there is obviously technical risk and a lot of these onstream protocols.

instead of interacting with lawyers and bankers, you are interacting with an app. a lot of folks do not require a token. they collaborate with great partners for building excellent solutions to manage risk, manage margin, and manage some of these new technical risks in an innovative way. excited to continue doing that, bull or bear market. emily: are you continuing to hire? we're looking at the 18% layoffs at coinbase. the ceo of by net had a tweet saying it was not easy saying no to the super bowl and large sponsor deals, but we did, and today we are hiring for 2000 open positions. meltem: at coinshares, we are not far -- not firing. we have slowed down our pace of hiring. from a risk management

perspective and balance sheet perspective, coinbase is being very prudent. on average, coinbase is generating about $1.6 million of revenue per employee prior to the cuts. with revenue going down, we look to profitability. i don't think we have seen anywhere close to the bottom of cuts. we are going to continue to see more cuts in the publicly listed companies, as well as the privately listed companies. the other thing we will see is a lot of companies are relying on all these deals to try to go public and get liquidity. i think we are going to see a lot of pressure on that going into q3 and q4, which is going to change the hiring environment. emily: appreciate you taking the time to join us. sonali, as always, thank you. coming up, will elon musk still need his twitter handle if his deal with twitter actually goes through? and who is he supporting in the

2024 presidential election? ♪

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emily: it's time for more news on the world of elong musk. the world's richest man appealed to a court ruling that upheld the fcc requirement -- s.e.c. requirement for him to have a twitter sitter, which is ironic since he wants to buy twitter. ed: this is a deal he made with the s.e.c., and just because he did not like it, you have to stick to it. you cannot have remorse about it. emily: just because you are going to own a twitter, you still have to have it. ed: his legal team is saying the agreement itself is harassment,

so we will see where it goes. it is more litigation. emily: he is also using twitter to share plans for 2024. ed: he sent some tweets at about 3:00 in the morning in new york. he did support andrew yang. he is now leaning toward ron desantis, the governor of florida. he believes he can win in his words, he thinks he can win. emily: and desantis had some thoughts about the support. ed: they asked him what do you think of this, and ron desantis, the governor of florida, said he welcomes the support of all african-americans. of course, elon musk is a white south african man. when ron desantis was elected governor of florida, he did receive voting support from black americans, so those were his words today.

emily: it is what it is. what do you make of the fact that he and president bided, who should be natural allies, continue to spark? ed: elon musk has been changing his politics. he said the number that's are the party of division and hate. basically, there is friction with the ministration and the white house. elon musk called him out for not supporting tesla. he has accused joe biden of leaving the russian revolution in. -- in ev's. we are watching on all hands meeting, elon musk speaking to all of the employees at twitter thursday morning. we will have full coverage of that. that does it for this edition of "bloomberg technology." we're back tomorrow with guests including the t-mobile ceo, coinbase's mark, and represent a dips from runway. ♪

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