dani: fed chair powell takes aim at inflation with a 75 basis point-risking an economic slowdown. but he says outside moves --

stocks stamp a five-day rout and yields slide as powell soothes wall street pcbs apprise with an emergency meeting in which it said it is speeding up work on a crisis tool to tame bond markets and reduce fragmentation risk. both the boe and s&p in switzerland hold their policy meetings today. the swiss central bank is under pressure to join the monetary tightening. let's check in on the markets. the rally was strong across equities and bonds, stateside starting to fade a little into

the asian session. the msci getting .4%. there is some pickup for european equities on the back of some relief that filtered through on the back of the 75 basis point move from the federal reserve. the biggest type since 1994. jay powell opening the door to 50 or 75 in the next meeting, but saying the rate does not necessarily pick up. reassurance for the market saying the economy stateside remains robust but there was tweaking of the language around a soft landing, underscoring the challenges faced by higher energy costs and the war in ukraine. there was a big bid for treasuries yesterday on the back of that 75 basis point move. yields are up five basis points on the u.s. two-year.

take yourself back to the baying of the year when this yielded just 17 basis points. currently at 3.24, the 10-year at 3.31. for the boe, the balancing act is arguably more acute because there are indications of a recessionary environment. inflation could get to double digits, the challenges for the bank of england are acute. we look ahead to that meeting and the expectation of a 25 basis point hike, the pound currently at 1.21. branch remains in focus, $118 a barrel. seeing gains of .3% today. the iea report was out yesterday, let's get to our reporters from around the world.

we will go over the fed's decision with the one and only enda curran out of hong kong. maria tadeo with a recap of the ecb's ad hoc meeting. lizzy burden is just around the corner at the bank of england ahead of today's policy meeting. and julia singapore is in singapore across the market moves there. the hike of 75 basis points from the fed, the biggest since 1994, jay powell reasserting the commitment to rein in prices. >> we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% objective. inflation has again surprised to the upside. some indicators of inflation expectations have risen. in response to these developments, the committee decided a larger increase in the target range was warranted. today 75 basis point increase is

unusually large and i do not expect moves of this size to be common. either a 50 basis point or 75 basis point increase seems most likely at our next meeting. tom: enda curran joining us now from hong kong, are you reassured, to the markets appear reassured, have they regain the initiative? enda: 75 was expected. they did not rule out another jumbo size move again in the future. they will go 50 at least which was takeaway number one. takeaway two, chairman powell his openly acknowledging the economy will have to feel some pain. less of the soft landing message from chairman powell. in the forecast, there is the acknowledgment that interest

rates have along ways to go and growth is going to slow. the take away from economists, he wants to be seen getting back into control and bringing inflation down. the danger now for the fed is that you're going to have to draw the economy into a recession to get prices back to where they want them to be. tom: a volker-esque fed, that is what we got with those high interest rates leading to a recession. worth remembering that. our chief edge economics correspondent in hong kong. the bank of england set to deliver a fifth straight rate hike today as officials are expected to stick to a steady path amid global chaos. our economy reporter lizzy burden is outside the boe, how will the central bank balance the recent economic data with

the need to tackle inflation? >> we are not expecting the fireworks we saw the fed or the ecb, that's partly because the bank of england started tightening sooner than its major peers. if you put that data into two columns, for the hawks you have inflation at 9% that's swallowing wage growth. rishi sunak has announced 15 billion pounds of extra fiscal support since the last bank of england decision, and even he admits that is going to be inflationary. for the doubts, the economy unexpectedly contracted in april. you can see consumer confidence is low. the housing market is starting to turn. it is a recession in all but name in the u.k., that means our economists reckon you will get a 25 basis point hike to 1.25% to take the key rate to its highest in 13 years. tom: the highest in 13 years,

another 25 basis points expected for the boe. the ecb says it is working on a new tool to curb market stress, it follows an emergency meeting yesterday after italian yields search the highest since europe's sovereign debt crisis. we are joined by our european correspondent maria tadeo, what exactly did the ecb deliver yesterday? maria: two things from that statement. one is the commitment to reinvest the pepp, something they reaffirmed after the emergency meeting. the big takeaway is the desire to construct and instruct the ecb to build a new anti-fragmentation tool, those were the keywords the market wanted to see. it is entirely his thoughts, but

it encapsulates this well, the ecb did yesterday what they were expected to do a week ago. it doesn't give you a reason to buy this market, but it doesn't give you a reason to sell either. when you look at that promise from an anti-fragmentation tool. the market reaction, btp's stable, we don't know when will this tool be available or the timing, but one thing that is extremely important is the fact that the european central bank did an emergency meeting and intervened 250 basis points between the italian and the german spreads. it does give you an indication of where the pain threshold will be for the european central bank as they normalize policy. tom: we will continue to watch that spread, whether or not 250 basis points is then in the sand.

maria tadeo in brussels, thank you for the details. for the market reaction, let's go to juliette saly in singapore. there is a lot of these markets to be working through. juliette: the key point was that [no audio] tom: i think we have some technical issues, unfortunately. juliette saly giving us a roundup of the reaction across asia. the msci asia pacific gaining .3%, you saw strong rally stateside on the back of the fed statement and press conference room jay powell where he reassured markets they are getting a grip on inflation and suggested that regular hikes of this size are not in the cards, although he opened the door for 50 or 75 basis in july. the nikkei is up .7%.

challenges for the boj and and arguably more hawkish fed. and increased speculation that the markets will capitulate on their yield curve control. the bloomberg dollar index gaining .2%. and euro-dollar 1.04, they yen is 1.34 as things stand. we got 26 basis points yesterday underscoring the challenge for the central bank of japan. let's take a look at key things markets are watching today. 12:00 p.m. u.k. time, the bank of england reveals its latest rate decision. at 1:30 p.m. we will have data from the u.s., including housing starts and initial jobless claims. throughout the day, ecb governing council members speak.

giving you a roundup of the hawks in the doves. later if effect, the governing body for international soccer announces host cities for the 2026 world cup. coming up, super return international, the world's largest private equity and venture capital event is currently underway in berlin. dani burger is on the ground. russia steps up its energy wars with gas cuts to europe's top buyers. germany accuses the kremlin of trying to drive up prices. that story later this hour, this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg

daybreak: europe, i'm tom mackenzie in london. superreturn international is currently underway in berlin, dani burger is on the ground there. dani: it's been a really fascinating conference because you get this feeling that we are on the precipice of change, or perhaps we are already there for the private equity industry. it's really all about the macro backdrop. i spoke with mark carney the former boe governor, now working for brookfield about the environment. she said the fed, they need to frontload. >> central bankers need to catch up to their economies. they've been behind the curve's. and they need to start to get interest rates above inflation effectively, or at least

perspective inflation expectations. dani: that move has affected public markets. aspect of the head of european private equity at carlisle who said we have passed a peak in the biotech industry. bubbles were inflating for tax, for example. i talks to kkr who said that the tide is coming in. and some people will be left out there, we will see who has been swimming naked. tom: bloomberg's dani burger at superreturn international in berlin, great conversations yesterday and more lined up today. joining us now is kit jucke, head of fx strategy at socgen, all there is a lot on the docket.

your reaction, are you reassured, do you get the sense that the fed has their hands on the question of inflation? kit: they are being more aggressive and they will certainly win the fight. i have sympathy with the fed because they came to the world's rescue so aggressively back in 2020. we have massive inflationary pressures right now, some of it due to supply factors but a lot of it due to the fact that everybody is out there spending money on services rather than goods. everybody wants to go on holiday and be outside at a bar or restaurant. there are not enough people to serve them in the price of everything is going up. that will end on its own in six months time because of the inflation we have got. the fed has got to get ahead of it which i think they are doing by being aggressive.

i think they are almost doomed to be more aggressive, because they are going to slow something down that by its nature is exceptional, and the peak of it is temporary. because we only reopened the global economy once. i'm frightened the balance between hard and soft landing will be incredibly difficult to navigate. tom: there was more nuance from jay powell on that question of a soft landing when he articulated his concerns on the supply chain and everything happening in ukraine. if you are looking at rates of 3.4% by the end of the year, 3.8% next year, clearly above the neutral rate of 2%, what does that mean around the risk of recession? is well dudley the former fed president right to say that these forecasts are wildly optimistic when it comes to

these concerns? kit: i don't think any central bank will say that we won't raise rates as aggressively as we can to get inflation back in the box. part of me thinks that what they have done now helps them to the extent that they have got the bond market working for them, they have got yields up a long way. they have got mortgage rates up sharply. that will help slow or prevent the inflationary cycle in the housing market over time. all of that helps, they won't get rates up as high as they are saying they are going to because the market is going to do their job for them, and that helps them avoid the deep recession. that's the most optimistic i can sound at this point in time. tom: king dollar gets another

leg, 3.8% by next year? nadia: it's not just about rates. if you are convinced of a soft landing, once we have priced in the cycle, we start looking for who will be raising rates next. we start looking for opportunities to take the economic recovery out of the soft landing. we look at australia where strong rates are going to go up and they will benefit from the economic revival. and the currency is cheap. if you think there is going to be a hard landing, you need to be long the dollar for much longer. if i can answer the question of where are we on the risk of the hard landing, i know when to ditch the dollar. i daren't ditch now. tom: there will be the calling for more, what does it mean for the pound, when does cable get

back to those pre-brexit levels? kit: in a really long time. cable is going to be subject what happens to the euro-dollar. when does it go up, we need to get the threat of interruption to get supplies in europe out of the way to stop the euro going down. we need the dollar to turn around. and here in the united kingdom, we have got rate hikes priced in more aggressively than most places, and we have probably the worst growth inflation mix of the major economies at the moment. all of that means that sterling remains very vulnerable to further dollar strength. if the world went quiet, sterling would be one of the last currencies to bounceback unfortunately. it has short covering within the mix, but they have a real

challenge, they will have to raise rates again today. the challenge is that given the mix between inflation and growth, the trade-offs they face is worse than elsewhere because of what has happened the last few years. tom: what do you do with the swissie at this point, do you position for hikes in the smb for may or next month? kit: we start to position long before we do for the euro, for starters. i would be surprised if they go today because they will not be a superstrong currency again. smb policy has been about not letting the swiss franc get two strong against the euro. yes, they are going to hike, they have less inflation but there inflation rate is taking higher. -- ticking higher.

they are a small open economy, they are going to feel it some degree. it is hard to see how they avoid being a haven currency. tom: kit jucke on the call to position for a higher swissie, and the woes of sterling. russia sets up energy wars with gas cuts to europe's top buyers. germany accuses the kremlin of trying to drive up prices. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. i'm tom mackenzie in london. russia has stepped up the use of energy as a weapon by cutting natural gas shipments via its

biggest pipeline. germany has accused the kremlin of trying to drive i prices as a political move. joining us is our energy reporter. how big of a deal are these pipeline natural gas cuts by russia and what triggered them? >> this pipeline cut through the nord stream one pipeline is 60% of the flows that going to europe. it's a big deal, a lot of supply. the reason for the cuts are a little unclear. russia says it is for technical issues. they had parts of a compressor station turbine that was being repaired for planned maintenance with siemens in canada. now they can bring it back to the compressor station because of sanctions. germany says they are weaponizing the pipeline to cut

flows to germany in retaliation for their sanctions. tom: how much further could russia go? >> they could keep cutting. they cut some flows to an italian utility by about 15% as well from their contract. they continued to cut into germany and other european countries. the big fear in the market is that russia closes the tap, and that would cause a recession not just in germany, but a number of other eu countries that depend heavily on russian gas. tom: we are running out of time, but unimportant story. stephen stapczynski on that reduction of gas from gazprom into europe. we get more analysis on the central when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again.

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tom: good morning from bloomberg's european had orders. i am tom mackenzie. this is daybreak europe and this is what you need to know today. from powell -- jerome powell takes aim at inflation with a 75 basis point hike. outside moves will be rare. stocks snap a five-day rout. the post fed rally falling in asia. attention now turns to the bank of england, expected to the anti-in the fight against inflation -- expected to up the ante in the fight against inflation.

the s&p snapping five days of losses, relative relief in the u.s. that the fed is getting a grip on inflation. also relief for the fact that jay powell did not commit to significantly higher increases over a prolonged period of time. he did leave the door open for july but said the 75 basis point move would be rare going forward. the msci asia pacific up 0.2%. the u.s. to year yield is preparing some of the gains -- gains are up in session today. you saw a move of money into treasuries yesterday. some suggesting now is a time to get further exposure to u.s. bonds. the 10-year at 332. move up in yields of a little over four basis points. it is expected 25 basis point

hike which will be the fifth in a row from the bank of england. concerns about growth coupled with inflation, stagflationary environment. the bound is at 121, lower by 0.6%. we have the news that gazprom of russia has reduced gas supplies. that will impact and have an overflow in terms of pricing of oil. we will continue to watch china where shanghai measures will be tested. let's get on to what is happening across the central-bank action. the fed delivering that 75 basis point hike. the fed will have to do much more. >> i think it is going to have to go to 5.5% or 6%. that is my own sense. that is based on historical record. it indicates inflation

adjustment, short-term policy rate, it has to get above zero to have any kind of chance of restricting inflation. >> the ecb is promising a new tool to avoid a resurgence of the debt crisis. for now we are joined by enda curran. and maria tadeo. the fed delivering its big move. a turnaround in the last five days or so. how much more will the fed be compelled to do and how far how fast to get inflation under control? >> there is more to do. jerome powell said he is willing to push interest rates into restrictive territory. that is jargon for really inflicting pain on the economy. he's going to do what it takes to bring down inflation. he is not signaling another 75 basis point hike but he did not rule it out either. we are on the path for maybe 50

basis points and perhaps 50 later in the year. they are pointing to slowing growth and at the same time, much higher interest rates. by all accounts, investors from the fed were certainly saying they have a lot to do and they are determined to do it. anna: it -- tom: it was also interesting to hear from jerome powell, the fomc surprised around forward-looking inflation expectations. the picture in europe is different. we have the details, some details about the new tool of the ecb. deutsche bank says it is an opportunity that will allow the ecb to go further on rate hikes. your analysis? >> it is going to be speculation from now until the july meeting.

there are two things i would note. one is that the ecb, for the completion of this no fragmentation tool, a lot of people in the markets not buying in. this has many repercussions on other things. there is speculation that this no fragmentation tool could mean the hawks will return and this is europe so everything works that way. you scratch my back, i scratch yours. faster normalization. having said that it is difficult . if you remember in that press conference, she repeated -- i lost count on the amount of times she said we are not going to surprise anyone. when we get to july, we get a 25 basis point hike. that will be the first hike. then we will take it from there. to undo that, to me it would

seem a big u-turn from the bank but nonetheless there will be an incredible amount of debate from now until that meeting in terms of when does the new tool,? what is the position allie? -- positionality? and what did the hawks ask in return from that clear line yesterday about fighting fragmentation? anna: we will see how long it lasts as we wait for more detail. thank you. maria tadeo in brussels and enda curran, our chief asian economics correspondent in hong kong. later in the day it is the bank of england decision, expected to hike by 25 basis points. we will get a preview of that later. stick around. let's get the first word news now from juliette saly in singapore. >> german chancellor olaf scholz, french president emmanuel macron, and italian president mario draghi are set to visit ukraine, their first visit to ukraine since russia

invaded at the end of february. earlier, u.s. president biden told ukrainian president zelenskyy the u.s. will provide another $1 billion in weapons. biden is also focusing on humanitarian assistance. natural gas futures have been surging after russia announced supply cuts to europe's biggest buyers. adding to a 15% cut in flows to italy. germany's economy minister accuses russia of trying to unsettle markets and prop up rice's. -- prices. shanghai will conduct mass covid testing throughout the city every weekend through the end of july. a temporary lockdown will also be imposed on any residential complex where a positive case is detected. workers at supermarkets, restaurants, and other public facing businesses will be tested every day.

china is setting up tens of thousands of labs for testing across its largest city. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom: juliette saly, thank you very much. coming up, volatility abounds as central banks try to take back the narrative and the initiative on inflation. does that make private equity even more attractive? we are back in berlin for super return international. dani burger on the ground. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha!

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tom: super return international,

the world's largest private capital event is going on and dani burger is on the ground. dani: it has been a very busy few days. it is a discussion of how the macro intersects with what is happening in the private equity industry. i'm really excited to bring us an interview to dig into that. it is the copresident and head of amia at -- emea. the fed's hiking 75 basis points. certainly public markets have had to rethink. doesn't change anything for you? >> it has been a volatile and interesting time in private equity. our portfolio business, we

thought inflation had been coming for a while. what it has done for us is -- which is fascinating, the public markets have reacted and that will move into the private markets. as we talked about, we think this is incredibly healthy and provides a lot of opportunity. dani: what sort of opportunity? >> typically what we see it in private markets, and we have been through a few of these resets, it trickles into the privates in the same way. what we see in public says the sell down has been discriminate and on the quality of business -- discriminating on the quality of business. we will see lesser companies struggle. right now in the private markets it has really been a crisis of value. it has not yet been a crisis of performance. if you poll my competitors we are not seeing weakness of

performance. we are seeing inflation. our portfolios are tech and asset light. we have seen massive inflation in wages and that is starting to trickle through. on the demand side we have seen no weakness. it has really been a crisis of value. dani: i think about sequoia, different from you, but a portfolio -- there was a memo not too long ago saying to their founders, look, it is time to do the cutting exercise. are you having any of those sorts of conversations? collect when you look back at the excesses of the last few years, it is how did valuations go up so fast? we think at some point in the last year people were paying for growth. prices relative to growth were two times above long-term averages which is not sustainable. the other excess that was happening as a lot of entrepreneurs were treating cash as if it was always available. if you ran out of cash it was almost a way of thinking, gosh,

i'm just going to sell a bit of my equities for cash and that has changed. you see the cost of cash going up and that markets are much more liquid. as that happens you have to tell your managers to be -- and your ceos to be a lot more decisive in how they use their capital and how they are going to fund their growth. we saw this coming. the last half of last year we told companies you should over capitalize. the tough thing is have a strong balance sheet. give yourself the optionality in a troubled market. this is an opportunity for great companies to win. we expect that of our chances. dani: with growth capital is more funds move into the space -- >> there was a healthy driver and then negative driver of the excess. the healthy driver is it is up slowly booming. the long-term drivers of what we

back which is the digital economy and the mobilization to the digital economy, those are intact. all of us anecdotally have seen how tech has taken over our lives. i think the excess has happened because one valuation ran up and two we had a whole set of actors who came in who made the deal cycle accelerate. we are seeing deals too quickly. most of what we do is partner with entrepreneurs. it is not typical to do a deal in a week and we have seen that happen. dani: is it possible -- i understand, i see you rolling your eyes, it is hyperbolic to call it a pyramid scheme. but private equity has so much money, keep selling companies between each other. something has to burst the bubble. >> the good news of the businesses we return cash to our investors. there has been this talk of selling from private equity firms to others.

i can tell you what we see is the need for growth equity is growing. the amount of innovation we are seeing globally is accelerating. we have never seen as much innovation and the need for capital and that is not because we are buying from a venture firm. >> in previous crises you did see slowing of spending affirms especially on things like tech. will it be the same this time around? >> you have to expect that is the base case and we are expecting that is the base case. we have seen no slowdown in demand across our portfolio. we run a $55 billion portfolio. the average growth rate across that is 40%. it is high-growth on a global scale. we see no demand weakness in private equities. we are telling our companies and our ceos prepare for that because that is what you would expect from a recession but so far it has been really strong. dani: i know you are very active

in ems right now. where is the opportunity there especially as macro concerns are acute in the region? >> ems, for them this is another day in the market. we have been is an all of our emerging markets for 20 years and it has been successful for us. we are seeing the same trends impacting the more mature economies really accelerated their. -- accelerated there. we think there is an opportunity to find the best brands and make the best choices. dani: enjoy the rest of the conference. that was gabe caillaux of general atlantic. tom: coming up, the bank of england is set to deliver a rate hike with officials expected to stick to a steady path amid concerns about inflation and growth.

more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." let's take a look at things to watch out for today after a momentous day yesterday. 12:00 p.m. u.k. time it is the bank of england up front and center revealing its latest rate decision. 1:30 p.m. we will have some data from the u.s. including housing stats and initial doubles -- jobless claims. jay powell still sees a robust u.s. economy. ecb councilmembers speaking later today. later, fifa announcing the host

of the 2026 world cup. let's have the reactions of some of our guest to that 75 basis points rate hike. >> a big change from the fed. >> definitely caught up with the pace of rate hiking the next couple years. >> the fed needs to send the message it is going to crush inflation and do it as fast as possible. >> it was the fact we are seeing inflation expectations starting to become a little more suspect. >> the question is will they be able to deliver on the path they have laid out? >> i think the fed forecasts are still remarkably optimistic. >> all the numbers they throughout our fantasyland. >> the question is how much is the fed going to be able to tolerate? >> we have never had a period were inflation has come down by more than 2% without having a recession.

>> they missed the opportunity to do this without a recession, without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. the forecast is saying they're going to pull off something that has never been accomplished in u.s. economic history. tom: some of the immediate reactions to the fed's jumbo hike. let's check on the markets. we have seen earlier gains, what futures are pointing to, starting to be pared. the nasdaq closing higher by 0.2%. erasing the back of five straight days of losses after that hike by the federal reserve. stoxx 50 futures pointing to gains just 0.1%, paring earlier stress on those futures. nasdaq futures pointing to losses of 0.4%. there is the u.s. to year yield, now up around 3.24 after a move

lower yesterday. the u.s. 10 year and the pound in focus. further weakness for cable down 0.3%. we will see if a 25 basis point hike -- socgen is convinced cable is for the poor man. here is an london of course the bank of england is set to deliver the expected rate hike with officials expected to stick to a steady path against the backdrop of global routes in financial markets and soaring inflation. joining me now is lizzie burden outside the bank of england. how is the boe going to strike this balancing act and what is the overlay from the fed? >> let me spell out what this is. on the hawkish side you have inflation running at 9% in the

u.k. following up wage growth. in the bank of england, the latest inflation shows lost faith in the bank to control inflation. chancellor rishi sunak has announced extra support which he admits is going to be inflationary. for the doves, the economy unexpectedly contracted in april. consumer confidence is low. you are starting to see straws in the wind in the housing market falling and the same could be said of the jobs ticket yesterday -- jobs data yesterday in the labor market. economists reckon you are going to see a cautious hike of 25 basis which today which would take the key rate to 1.25%, the highest in 13 years. tom: the rate we are seeing for central banks, the ecb playing

catch-up of course, the fed ahead of the pack. how does that all impact the decision-making from policymakers at the bank of england? >> we are not expecting to see the fireworks we have seen out of the ecb and the fed from the boe. that is partly because it was one of the first out of the gate with his tightening. if you look how the pound fell against the dollar to its lowest since march 2020, that is because the traders expected the fed to be more aggressive down the line, not the bank of england. but also if you look how much the pound has fallen against the dollar in is the start of the year by more than 10%, that is only going to add to the inflation picture in the u.k.. officials will be very much bearing that in mind. tom: who are the dissenters likely to be today? >> if we get a vote it is more likely to be between 25 and 50

basis points. economists stress it will be jonathan haskell who voted for 50 basis points in the february and may meetings. tom: we will watch for those. those potential dissenters and whether or not they win the argument. 50 basis points would come through as a surprise for the bank of england. the consensus is 25 basis points. that is it for "bloomberg markets europe." futures, e-mini's pointing lower. nasdaq futures lower by 0.4%. futures here in europe pointing just modestly higher by 0.2%, a bit of catch after a solid day on wall street yesterday. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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