>> oil, the dollar, completely different story. bloomberg markets starts right now. let's dive into the price action because triple witching day, a lot of auctions expiration any

risk off move perhaps ahead of the long weekend. is that how we close? that is what we will watch. the 10 year yield not a ton happening. some volatility, movement but we will put that into the context and the bond market, all the action in the currency. the dollar index is higher. the direction is a one-way story and the reflection of that, the ripple of flecked is -- the ripple effect is taking effect. crude down almost 7%. let's talk and broaden out because earlier today we heard from credit suisse who says fears might be overblown. >> i think that right now the market is really oversold. if you look at the way -- how intense the daily moves are and how much volatility there is,

the key is that we have to be confident that the fed is not driving us into a recession paired if we start to see -- recession. if we start to see in the next job reports, negative print where you have a loss of jobs or something, then the market is going to freak out. look at what we have had the indication of industrial activity, well above normal. the last job report, very strong in terms of jobs. earnings season, big beats. i think the fundamentals win out. ritika: do the fundamentals win out? let's ask abigail doolittle. how does it look? abigail: in the near term we may be oversold but investors having an eye on the longer term situation.

whenever we go weekly or monthly, it tells you what extreme moves we are looking at your the s&p 500 has been rounding out for a number of months at the end of 2021 to this year. this week took out critical support. what does the gap resale to the upside, above 3900, then we will see the s&p 500 go above this level but ultimately this suggests we will go back now -- down not to the target of 30 400 but closer to 3200, supporting a near-term move up is the rsi on a weekly basis but closer to the bottom, suggesting there is probably a more bearish tone i had. speaking of the near term, the vix supports it. we are going to see the range for the vix over the last year. what is so amazing is the vix has continued to put in a series

of lower highs, telling you that the volatility is not matching the stock volatility. the lowly had this week, the last time the s&p 500 and they had the vix put in, it was close to 4300. as long as this stays on, expect more near-term bounces and then at some point longer-term, we could see a longer move up. long-term, i don't know. it looks a little dicey. ritika: not such great news for the equities your let's dive into the markets and get more insight from amy wu silverman rbc capital markets ,. thank you for joining us. thank you for taking time out of your friday. i want to dive in to one of the stories of liquidity could we had chris murphy -- liquidity.

we had chris murphy on and he said that some of the lack of participation in the market is causing the move down. you agree that is the reason? amy: i think that is a component of it. people like to blame liquidity. i think it is a little of both. we are today even on a triple witching affect, a low volume effect. during the beginning of the year, people placed hedges and new the fed was going to do something and what is happening is a lot of the hedges were actually getting close to the second strike and what happens from a gamma dynamic is the opposite of what we saw happen during the pandemic. instead of exacerbating to the upside when the dealer becomes long, you see support of market

conditions. so when you're talking about lower highs in volatility is a function of positioning and volatility but what concerns me is the fact that they have been extremely underpriced. going to the summer, should be owning those because volatility has underperformed with the equity market has done. ritika: you mentioned the keyword, hedging paired i am. how people -- hedging. if you are not selling out of major positions, is hedging the way to go and what does that do in terms of the nominal numbers the are seeing on the s&p 500? amy: it is a great question and i think the refrain i have been receiving this year is what is with the lack of hedging?

there was a decent amount of hedging, especially if he think about the end of last year. a lot of those hedges have been monetized, so investors who placed hedges, they are happy how the hedges have done because obviously the s&p 500 has gone into bear market territory. people have also de-risked and there is less to hedge. economists were saying this morning is the theory that these surprises, a potential 9% cpi or potential 100 basis points being factored into the dot plots, then you see a neat renewal -- a renewal from the 30 numbers to something higher. abigail: we have to ask about the vix, it is down given the gains on the long levels of the

s&p 500. how high could the vix go if 30 is the new 20, could 40 become the new 30? put amy: it definitely --amy: it definitely feels like 20 was it but it has moved up a full 10 points. march of 2020, the global financial crisis you saw the vix hit 80. in terms of what we can have happen, it can go higher. the question is, how much higher can it go persistently, and that is key. the fact that we have persistently high 30 vix creates a plus or minus 2% will be daily. if we not only get to a vix of 40 but persistently there, then it starts to change a lot of other dynamics like the demand for hedging because investors who feel that withdraw viscerally, then it becomes

something untenable for portfolios. ritika: amy wu silverman, we thank you. the vix, he couldn't seems like it is coming back but it comes down to a question of participation. you can see that on the chart in front of us and there continues to be the question in terms of, where do we go from here? is the volatility concerning? we are going to discuss that in the upcoming hour. but let's get to the first word. mark: welcome to the bloomberg audience. president biden spoke reporters at a climate change event at white house. pres. biden: we should build upon the success of the gold bull methane -- a global ethane pledge -- global methane pledge. we are announcing the global methane pledge pathway to ramp

up the speed to reduce methane leaks in the oil and gas sector. mark: the president addressed the economy saying he is using every lover available to him to bring down inflation. today, the iowa supreme court cleared the way to severely limit or even ban abortion in the state. the court, composed almost of entirely republican nominees, reversed the decision by the court that guaranteed the right to abortion under the iowa constitution. ruling comes in expectation that the u.s. supreme court will overturn the roe v. wade decision that legalized abortion nationwide. president vladimir putin said russia is weathering sanctions by the united states and its allies over the invasion of ukraine, insisting the consequences for the west will be worse. president putin told the st. petersburg international economic forum that kremlin

authorities are "stabilizing the economy step-by-step." he added that europe stands to lose $400 billion this year as a result of sanctions imposed on russian imports that have fueled the increase in energy costs without explaining what he was referring to. saudi arabia's crown prince will visit turkey next week for talks at improving ties to deliver a boost to the deteriorating economy, coming years after regional rivalry exacerbated by the killing of jamal khashoggi at the saudi consulate in istanbul in 2018. global news 24 hours a day, online and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

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ritika: this is bloomberg markets. it has been a turbulent time for traders. a debate over value versus growth hanging in the background. a qr capital saying that value investing is still a winning formula. >> we are still maximally excited at the value. a year-and-a-half ago, you had to say the momentum i am ignoring it, this is we dig deals. you now have something not quite as ridiculous. we still have prices i didn't think i'd see again in my career going on now.

so we love value still going forward. ritika: we will stick with that story and bring in our macro strategist. thank you for joining us. let's dive into what cliff was talking about. asset prices he hasn't seen in his career for a very long time. in an era where qe is a tool federal reserve uses in times of a downturn, could we see the asset price inflation in the future? cam: inflation like we sought after covid? i mean, let's see what the next downturn looks like. i tend to think this will be more than orthodox economic recession rather than one that is characterized by either financial shock like we had or the exogenous shock of covid. it has been two decades since we had an orthodox session.

an orthodox recession, you don't necessarily need the emergency superpowers that the fed has broken out after the gsc and covid. it has spurred a lot of the excess we have seen your time taking more of a playbook -- seen it. i am taking more of a playbook and it is taking a few used to see the beaten-down aspects in terms of the growth value dynamic, that would be growth, to make a comeback. ritika: let's talk about the other things moving markets. overnight, the massive boj decision that some felt was and i climactic, similar to the ecb meeting. have to ask about what might break in this market, at least going in now with the concern of the potential removal of the peg would be the thing that moves leading to capitulation.

we didn't see any of that, does that mean we won't? cameron: the dollar-yen has moved up to a 20 year high on an inflation adjusted basis is hiatus it has ever been. -- basis as high as it has ever been aired -- basis as high as it has ever been. prices for dollar-yen, potential for the boj to step in, that has passed at least in the short run so perhaps we will see more of eight speculative participation. the more significant margin squeeze any firm in japan imports goods or services is

sustaining. japan is a major importer of energy commodities and commodity is more generally. the weaker yen is a boon for corporate japan but in this case , given the massive negative changes, it is actually negative. in the longer term, it is going to be very difficult for the boj to persist with this policy and is standing against the tide that is going out very strongly and vigorously all over the world. ritika: let's talk about the dollar. you continue to see with this in the yen and it seems the consensus will be the trend that it continues with the euro dropping. in the last 48 hours alone, we have seen perhaps some speculation about what will break the strength of the dollar period former colleague --

dollar. a former colleague of your sink perhaps there is some vulnerability in the greenback. -- a former colleague of yours saying perhaps there is some vulnerability in the greenback. cameron: there is like elation at the fed will run out of steam. the fed is projecting steady rate hikes through until next year. the market is pricing the end of the cycle in about nine months, and then a reversal not long thereafter. i think we can say given how quick and aggressively have been moving rates, the turnaround will probably come in fairly short order and will be a wily coyote moment and it will jump off the cliff, hang there for a minute, and then drop. once the fed gets the perception

that is going on, whether it is inflation coming up hard and we are seeing oil changed or the sudden uptick in employment, i think it is fair to say the fed is going to turn relatively quickly paired once the market perceives that is going to happen -- quickly. once the market sees that happen, the dollar will cover. ritika: coming up, we will talk about the crypto winter setting in. we'll talk about inflationary pressures and volatility continuing and digital concert -- currency. this is bloomberg. ♪

ritika: this is bloomberg markets. now, we are looking at the meltdown in crypto. the value falling below $1

trillion, according to --. the sign of deepening turmoil, the second major digital asset freeze withdrawal. we caught up with anthony who spoke about the damage done. >> when it goes out, you see who has been swimming naked and unfortunately a lot of companies have been doing that. it all goes back to risk management. a lot of the actors have engaged in risky activity. among others, on collateralized lending -- un-collateralized lending which has caused problems for many players. i am happy to be one of the

companies that is in a good position. you don't have to take my word for it, you can go online and check out the essence when every thing was good and everyone was greedy. you can see our assets exceed all liabilities. >> in terms of customers left hanging, one need only to look at twitter to see they are messaging you asking about your business. you can take them and there are also assets that will likely before sale. are you planning on taking advantage of this situation and growing nexo. anthony: this reminds me of the 1907 bank panic where jp morgan was forced to step in with his

own funds and rally all of those guys to fix the situation. that was pre-federal reserve, so no lender of last resort. we have been approached by three household names and wall street banks who are looking to leverage their expertise with the ones that are solvent to remedy the overall situation, and there are going to be a lot of consolidation processes that i unfortunately cannot comment on but this is where we are heading. ritika: let's get a quick check of the markets are the s&p 500 up .5%. it is a triple witching so do the gains sustain? already poised for a weekly

loss. not a lot going on in the 10 year yield. the bloomberg dollar index still higher and stronger. take a look at the ripple effect, crude down almost 8%. growth fears seem to be showing up in commodities across the board. stick with us. bloomberg markets is next. this is bloomberg. ♪