tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg June 20, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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u.s. futures rising as investors weigh whether the selloff last week went far enough. >> the fed's jim bullard says the fed expectations could become unmoored. >> some market watchers are betting prices have bottomed out. we prepare for tomorrow's trading session following today's juneteenth holiday. we have s&p futures up one point 1%. nasdaq futures up 1.1% higher also. i want to point to dollar ruble. another 3.5% stronger for the
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ruble, 35% plus strengthening for the ruble this year. a dangerous time for the russian economy as imports are impossible and the dollar is not in demand and that is strengthening the ruble. how long will it last? crude is up another $.71. we will be watching oil prices strongly this week as germany turns back on the fossil fuel caps of natural gas -- with natural gas in short supply. we can see the volatility. it may not be in stocks. we are seeing it in bonds. look at the two-year --as much volatility as we have seen since the great financial crisis which is down to the feds growth anticipation. we will see what happens with yields. >> u.s. futures also providing a tailwind for asia ahead of the open.
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sellers taking a breather to see up the selloff went too far. in asia, looking for australia to snap it seven-day losing streak. dust coming online. in japan, keeping an eye on the yen peered we saw it strengthen briefly yesterday. there was a meeting between the japanese prime minister and the boj governor. both sides expressing concern over the price action and the slide in the yen but this morning, we are back above the 135.15. bitcoin holding above 20,000. some sellers saying we have seen the worst of the route but other seeing a 50% drop from here. >> in fact, the question is how long will the bear market in the u.s. go on for? jp morgan more optimistic in terms of when they will see the stressed conditions in the equity markets easing. they say the second half will look better in terms of markets being able to price in the level
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of monetary policy and project re-we are seeing from the fed as well as inflation potentially coming down. they see inflation pressures and the fed hawkish nest easing. in terms of where they see opportunities, they are recommending direct exposure to china. how times have changed even in the last few weeks in terms of how many more analysts are increasingly positive on chinese stocks. they are also lacking u.k. equities and minors. >> and some is predicated on what president biden will do because he has promised he well have congress help him enable inflation -- have congress help him enable -- laws. it is one of the things he is hoping for. is also hoping to cap the prices on drugs like insulin and we may be getting some language on that this week. it would require congressional
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signoff. he was talking to larry summers this morning and he says there is nothing inevitable about a recession. he may have been putting a positive spin on things because larry summers said it will take a jobless rate at 5% for a sustained period in order for us to curb inflation and avoid recession. looking for an entry point into equity markets. let's get more on the markets from our chief correspondent for rates, garfield reynolds and andrea. garfield, will we see a sustainable rebound in sentiment? we are seeing equity futures point higher. >> equity futures are pointing higher perhaps as a response to how extraordinary last week selloff was and also it was a holiday. there is nothing much going on. larry summers saying things need to get nasty is not news. he has been saying that for quite a while.
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and some positive noises maybe from biden. the big question is what is the fed saying and what will it be doing? we have powell giving testimony to congress this week. that is the big kahuna. how concerned is he still or is the fed still about inflation and about the need to raise rates? where are they seeing neutral? how soon do they think they need to get to neutral? sentiment is going to remain very vulnerable. not just around the fed. in asia, we have the question about whether the boj's 81 billion dollars a bond purchases last week will be enough over the long-term to quiet things down there. it is impressive but it raises a question of how sustainable it
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is. if japan starts blowing up again, that will hurt sentiment around this region and even elsewhere. that could happen before powell speaks or after he speaks if we get fresh increases in the u.s. government yields. >> what do you make of the latest commentary? we continue to have high profile investors and policy makers weighing in on the idea of recession and how it could be stopped? >> well, you can never say it will never be stopped and a lot of that is actually outside of even the federal reserve's control. the inflation outlook powell has achieved. and also, how resilient the u.s. economy is in the face of the steepest rate increases in a generation. it is not inevitable and it
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might even be a helping hand for the u.s. given the fact that china's economy is struggling with covid which is taking some the heat out of the commodity prices especially metals. it is even having an influence on what is going on with crude oil. there is also the question of how rapidly europe can wean its in -- its dependence on russian fossil fuels. that would play into where fuel prices will go in the future. if there is a sustained cool down in commodity prices, that is one part of the picture that would bring inflation down. not necessarily requiring further interest rate hikes or further extreme interest rate hikes. that is something that could engineer a soft landing though there would be nothing in america that could be done to make that occur. >> we have been using bitcoin as a risk appetite proxy.
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can we continue to do that? >> we did see a little bit of a reprieve from bitcoin as well as for some of the old coins last night. that is after you had realized losses of 7.3 billion last week in the crypto space according to glass note. you had some short-term forced sellers. certainly a reprieve. the sentiment remains negative. it is probably way too early to say the selloff is over. with interest rates going up and also the broadening distress in the crypto space with the lenders holding withdrawals and liquidity concerns, there is definitely still pressure there in this space. it did have a reprieve last night.
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it is bouncing around the $20,000 level and investors are looking for the bottom but it is probably too early to say. >> in the meantime, another crypto player is facing difficulties. >> yes, that is right. it froze withdraws last -- withdrawals last week but it came out with a statement overnight saying it had reached the limit area agreements on the repayment period of some of these debts and that has eased some of the company's short-term liquidity pressure. we had a person with knowledge of the matter telling bloomberg it is in talks with some of the largest institutions about potential solutions to the problems but what it highlights is a broadening this -- broadening distress in this space. it was not the only one. celsius froze deposits and on monday at said it needed more time to stabilize its liquidity
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and operations. >> we have a look at everything going on with the markets and we are watching for the outcome of this curve control target review undertaken by the reserve bank of australia. the rba coming out with a statement saying the yield target was successful in achieving objectives. guidance eased conditions and in retrospect, they might've decided against extending yield curve control. the bard will -- the board -- the rba has come under some degree of criticism over its forward guidance. they previously said they had not expected interest rates to rise until 2024. we have now had two interest rate hikes this year and the
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government is looking at an independent review over the rba as a result of the forward guidance. the reserve bank saying they will undertake a review of bond purchases from late -- in late 2022. in the meantime, we have the money market releasing an increasing likelihood that the rba will follow the fed in coming through with a 75 basis point hike in july or august. take a look at overnight index spot pricing, better than a 50% chance of such a move. paul: ecb president christine lagarde has reiterated policymakers plans to raise interest rates in july and september to find -- to fight inflation. she also said work is underway on a crisis tool for the euro region. without giving details on how it is supposed to function. she told lawmakers she is confident the economy can keep expanding.
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>> russia's unjustified aggression towards ukraine is severely affecting the euro area economy and the outlook is still surrounded by high uncertainty. conditions are in place for the economy to continue to grow and recover full --further over the medium term. paul: israel is heading for its fifth election in less than four years with the fractious ruling coalition collapsing following a series of internal disputes. israel's parliament will be does all with the foreign minister to be caretaker premier ahead of a ballot by the end of october. israel is due to host president biden next month on its first middle east tour. has overtaken saudi arabia as china's top oil supplier as beijing continued to snap up russian energy products last month including a record quantity of crude with nearly 7.5 billion dollars. the increase comes as a war in ukraine continues and other buyers shy away from russian shipments.
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chinese demand improved as virus restrictions lucent. ukrainian president zelenskyy said his nation is facing a historic week as the european unions 27 member states decide whether to approve its bid to become a candidate. the leaders of france, italy, and germany have already given their blessing but all member states must agree and they will reach a decision later this week. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> still ahead, strategies -- fairlead strategies gives us word on where crypto will go next. maintaining sufficient liquidity will be key. and alice ahead with optimal capital. this is bloomberg. ♪
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not do that, we could get a new regime that would look more like the 1970's with high inflation and volatile inflation and volatile real economic performance. >> the fed president jim bullard and president biden commenting on the u.s. economy. this is the set of play when it comes to the u.s. futures trading at the moment. s&p futures looking up, up about 1%. nasdaq 100 futures up by about the same. the dollar is slipping a little and this part of the trading session as well as the dow seeing firm gains. we are looking at the rebound along with stocks in europe as investors weigh whether the selloff went too far last week in terms of the adequate pricing about rising rates and slowing growth. we did see the note out from j.p. morgan saying the second half is when we will see equity
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stress be alleviated as well as cooling when it comes to inflation pressures as well as fed tightening pressures. we are seeing a bit of a rebound when it comes to futures after the for -- after the worst week for the gauge since the beginning of the pandemic. our next best says a fed pivot may not happen right away but she says policymakers may need to stacy from optimal capital. how high is the risk of a misstep and the potential for a need to temper these expectations from the fed?
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frances: we only have to look back to when they tightened starting when they ended their asset purchases in 2014, raising rates in 2015, having to pivot in 2018 and reducing the balance sheet until they had the problem with overnight markets and september 2019. that was a liquidity issue. he had to start quantitative easing before covid. we are looking at a similar if not more total tightening between balance sheet adjustments and interest rates but we are doing it within a year. the system does not have time to recalibrate all of those little moves. for instance, we upped the federal funds rate estimate 75 basis points. if that is going to affect adjustable-rate mortgages, credit cards or something like that, 30, 60, 90 days, when will we get the recalibration for the system to know if that has a negative effect on credit markets? the fact that we are doing it in a compressed amount of time increases the possibility of a policy error. >> the competitive narratives aspect is an interesting one that you raise. will that keep volatility elevated? >> the fed's remaining resolutely hawkish and powell has found his inner paul
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volcker-ism. he is testifying before congress week i don't think there will be data to change much of what he said. however, we could see a little calm before the storm. i think the next catalyst is the second-quarter earnings coming out and what that may bring us. there may be a narrative that we have hit a bottom, we are oversold, the fed is taking inflation seriously and that might be slightly bullish in the interim. we have already tighten financial conditions considerably. it has not been recalibrated through the system so i think the competitive narratives kinda find a bottom or say the bottom could keep volatility elevated. >> when you say the fed pivots, what would that look like? frances: it is hard to speculate. if we look at the pivot around covid, back stopping corporate
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credit, things like that, i would hope we would not have to do what japan has done which would have the fed step in and buyback equities. it would depend on what happened with credit spreads. if there was a credit event, but the contagion looked like and how serious it was. if it was not as serious as covid, it would be less of a pivot. >> we have seen repricings. that much is clear. when you look at the vix, it is topping out at around 30 and treasuries have seen volatility. we are way off the high yields we saw in the last few days. what makes you think anything would be disorderly from here? frances: i think the bond market traders are always trying to anticipate things. i think there is a contingency out there that knows the fed will have to pivot. if you look at a chart of the federal funds rate over the decades, it is a bearish trend
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chart. it has not taken out previous highs. we have added to the federal debt load. and the private and public debt. total debt. the problem is when you raise interest rates, it becomes harder to service the debt which makes sense that we cannot get the fed funds rate up like we used to. the bond market will try to anticipate that. it already did once. the 75 basis points two market by surprise. we saw a go more above neutral if we think neutral is around 3%, 3.5 percent. now, the bond market is going to go --wait a second. how far can we push this thing? the fed will push because they have to as there will be liquidity concerns. the bond market will try to anticipate that. we will have to see if we have seen the high-end rates. >> interesting times ahead. frances, thank you for joining
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>> just getting through the results of the rba yield curve review. they are likely to prefer bond yet i -- bond buying as a monetary policy. they recognize the yield target may be useful in extreme periods and the board is doing the probability of using that tool again as low. there is a question as to how much it damaged the rba's credibility. the board says it could decide not to extend yield curve control and the effectiveness of
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the tool slid in 2021. arguably they say they retained too long the policy given the economic recovery and we know there is quite a bit of criticism particularly from the government in terms of the rba's ability at the moment pertaining to their forward guidance. they had said previously they did not expect rates to rise until at least 2024. >> a quick check of the headlines. pontus sing it is restoring international flights faster than planned to handle a massive rebound in travel. seats on international flights are about 90% filled. daily services between sydney and london are fully booked across all classes for the next few weeks. the ceo tells us air travel demand may exceed capacity for years. >> internationally, we are at 50% of our pre-covid levels and demand is greater than that. at the end of the year, we will get to 85%. there is massive demand.
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if i could get more air -- more aircraft into the air i would do it tomorrow. >> hong kong says it wants a reprieve on some debt repayments. the distressed crypto lender froze withdrawals last week. the co-founder told bloomberg the company will disclose to the public once details emerge about the repayment period and some of the debts. coming up, we have more on the outlook for cryptocurrencies with fairlead strategies saying crypto has plunged through technical support lines. that is next. this is bloomberg. hi, i'm denise. i've lost over 22 pounds with golo in six months and i've kept it off for over a year. i was skeptical about golo in the beginning because i've tried so many different types of diet products before. i've tried detox, i've tried teas, i've tried all different types of pills, so i was skeptical about anything working because it never did. but look what golo has done.
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next few years to curb inflation. and he says the fed will need to make more difficult choices to rein in prices and should consider abandoning forward guidance as a policy tool. president joe biden says u.s. recession is avoidable. >> i was talking to larry summers this morning. there is nothing inevitable about a recession. paul: chinese regulators executives -- after a second fatal accident at the oil giant this month. one person was killed when a fire broke out at a plant in shanghai on saturday. earlier this month, a fire at another plant in guangdong left two people missing. it felt short of standards for state owned firms. the president-elect of the philippines has appointed himself agriculture secretary giving himself direct response
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ability for food output with inflation pressures. he wants to boost food supply and bring down prices. the last time an incoming philippine leader assumed a concurrent role in the cabinet was in 1998. a new survey has found more than half of consumers and major economies did not build up their savings during the pandemic. the poll was from 18 nations and was shared with bloomberg news undercutting hopes that households have a cushion against a deepening cost of living increase. they say they spent their savings on essentials rather than luxuries. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am paul allen. this is bloomberg. >> china and the european union are planning meetings in the coming weeks. beijing wants to address issues rather than sweeping them under the rug but tangible progress is needed after an unproductive
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summit in april. >> we are now trying to keep channels of communication open. that is what we did on the first of april with the eu-china summits. we are preparing high-level economic talks. and another high-level talks on ima and amar meant. for the next few weeks, hopefully. you have to be -- we are in a way in the same environment. we need to talk. and we need to find where we can solve issues. for this, we need to have a shared account of the facts which is missing today. sometimes. and we need to bring back to our constituents, our business people, our students, our
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members of parliament evidence that engagement with china is productive. >> aiming for the comprehensive agreement is to level the playing field for european firms in china. it was said that there is no prospect of that being ratified until chinese restrictions are lifted. is that deal now debt? -- dead? >> no deal is ever dead because never say never in international relations. conditions could change. like we said, it is up to china. the ball is in the chinese court. i the end of 2020, chinese -- by the end of 2020, chinese negotiators agreed on a number of very important rules for investment. with the eu . things they never did with
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anyone. but we have agreed now so we have a draft agreement. the agreement will not be ratified by the eu but nothing stops china from taking measures. >> more european friends sit -- firms are looking to shift out of china partly because of the zeroidolicy. is that trend reversible after china ends covid zero? >> no one is leaving china. the issue is -- what do you do for new investment? for the time being, there are delayed decisions because everyone is waiting for an exit strategy with china for covid restrictions. we are not seeing that today so we will have to wait and see if the government of china will or will not decide to align itself with the rest of the world. >> are you pulling up the
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drawbridge of for chinese investment? >> europe is open for business. it is not the business of europe to make friends. but when we talk about reciprocity, we mean it. today, if any country including china does not open for public procurement to european companies, chinese companies will not be able to bid as they can today for work in europe. it is as simple as that, reciprocity. >> that was the eu and bassett are to china speaking exclusively to bloomberg. a quick look at commodities. an interesting story. wti lost 5% on friday. up above $110 per barrel after the comments that a recession today is avoidable from the president.
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gas is down 3.2%. we here now about rationing in europe. there was a 43% gain in prices last week. it could do with a little bit of steam coming out of that contract. no pun intended. as for iron ore, it had been sinking though we are seeing a tiny rebound. there was a 7% plunge in singapore on growth concerns in china. including china's inability to put covid behind it. a similar story for copper. china has promised to support its housing sector and to do whatever it takes. plenty more to come on daybreak: australia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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a lot of players. >> a co-founder -- let's stick with crypto and bring in annabelle in hong kong. is this the pain peak? >> possibly. that could be where we are at. a lot of different views. last node is weighing in on it. it focuses on blocked joint -- blockchain and crypto. they have been looking at a number of factors. things like the amount of profitability of long-term holders and individual wallets. these are industry specific search terms and parameters and the bottom line is it says we are at historically high pain levels but not quite near the worse of the previous selloff. sellers are behind the price action. we will have to wait and see if we do see signs of seller exhaustion coming into the market over the next few weeks.
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>> what about for bitcoin? some investors still seeing a leg lower. >> what about a further 50% drop from where we are now? some calls have come out for $10,000. a well-known investor said this, scott minerd from guggenheim, a bitcoin skeptic. more analyst joining in including swiss quote bank. one is the fed tightening. other central bank moves. this is to curb inflation which is unlikely to go away until we see that dissipate. sector specific stresses. celsius. that has convinced long-term holders to pull out the white flag. swiss quote bank says now with that we have seen the -- now that we have seen a 20 k level, there will be another range and
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then 10,000. on the upside, swiss quote sees decent resistance around the 22,000, $25,000 range but the fear of missing out on the market is no longer a reality. it is not really a piece of cake as a stock pick. >> that is for sure. following all of the analysis -- for some analysis, let's bring in katy stockton. you heard everything she had to say. you yourselves have pointed out that we have broken through some technical levels on the downside. should we be bearish on bitcoin from here given that we have seen the technical levels, and go? katie: bitcoin and others have been trending lower. bitcoin peeked in november last year. it is nothing new. it is the magnitude of the decline has been so severe. down 44% month to date and that
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is shocking in terms of downside momentum. and it has carried over to other coins and infected the whole space. with this kind of decline of support levels are being taken out and our last support level was broken decisively. enough so that we are already to the next support level. for bitcoin, we are watching 18,300, 19,005 hundred. that range is based on levels that a lot of fx traders like to track. and a more traditional way of deriving support. it is the key level in play. it is a natural place to see stabilization. we do see -- we do think the relief value would be muted given the downside momentum across the board. >> do we see any decoupling without equities trade from now on? katie: i think equities also
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will see a little respite this week from the downside momentum they have been plagued by. i think we will see collective relief or maybe for the next couple of weeks. beyond that, i would assume the down said -- the downsides -- the -- very high. that is normal when you have a downtrend and a general risk off year in the marketplace. investors are treating bitcoin, ether, and equities like risk assets and they should do that especially when they're trending lower like this. >> what does it tell us about the long-term outlook and reconfiguration of this entire asset class? katie: almost 75% downside from
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that november high for bitcoin. i think it is freaking out a lot of holders of the cryptocurrency market. we have seen bitcoin outperform other altcoins and without we are seeing it act as a bit of a safe haven but when you're safe haven can be down that much, it is really worrying a lot of investors and has shaken out some traders. it feels to me like people are having to press the reset button and to live through this down cycle and early investing careers for the cryptocurrency investors -- i think this is going to change the way they look at the market going forward. i don't think it will shake them out indefinitely. i think it is about watching for momentum to shift to get that base in place and that is where confidence will be restored. it is a bit of a shakeout and in fundamental terms where the
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weaker companies will not survive. after we come out of this, there will be some great opportunities and perhaps the opportunities will have more longevity and we will be dealing with less volatility which is natural as an asset class matures. >> you say there is a consolidated cost for investors. is that where we are headed given it seems a lot of the bigger cryptocurrencies are chasing liquidations to try to profit from the volatility? katie: it is hard to say what the composure of these investment -- of the investment landscape will be going forward. i have seen institutional interest increase. there is a need for a relief from the volatility. equities are in a high volatility regime as well. we have sentiment data your it's lows. we do not have any indications that even the high-growth arena
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which is so deeply oversold by some metrics is ready to rally and ready to move forward in that regular, stair stepping fashion that generates institutional interest. it has delayed the institutional buy-in but it will be there eventually once the other companies that don't pass muster from a fundamental perspective are shaken out of the industry. >> it would be remiss not to mention that given it is june 2, a lot of minorities are going to be hurt i this drop in bitcoin. a fair fraction, more than 40% of black americans are involved in crypto in some way. what would be the advice for the retail investor that has a certain portion of their assets in the crypto universe? katie: it is very personnel in terms of where did they enter the market, have they rid den it lower at this point? there is nothing wrong with
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waiting on the sidelines. markets do tend to not bottom in a v bottom fashion but rather need to go sideways for a bit. rather than waiting for that and letting your money do nothing for you, i would say better to be on the sidelines. let the downtrends give way to basing phases and consider alternative assets. >> great to have you with us. katie stockton from fairlead strategies. qantas says it cannot add flights fast enough. our interview with the ceo alan joyce is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> at the moment, demand is strong. we knew there would be a pent-up demand at a point in time going into the bookings and the tickets and that is the case now. i believe it will be sustainable. as strong as it is today, i don't know but there is a very deep need for flying and traveling that has been contained for two years and i think that is what we see now. if the conditions are not changing too much in the world, it is possible to travel with some certainty. >> i think our recent experience
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suggests conditions rarely stay stable for long. i would like to get your take on the macro picture. everyone tells me there is a recession coming. >> there are many moving parts at the moment. the situation is not the same in different parts of the world. and we see the situation of china, u.s., europe and the war in ukraine. it is a complex picture and it is difficult to know what will happen. there are signals that tell us it is not going to be easy. inflation is going up. prices remain high. it does not mean that for our industry there will be a recession because there are many drivers per sector. and after two years of lost freedom, the need to fly is strong. >> quite quickly we are seeing a rebound to travel and not just
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travel for people leaving new zealand to get out but increasingly people wanting to come back in. i am very excited. what we are doing is if you like to be bold in thought but cautious in deed. >> aviation leaders there discussing the resurgence in air travel. qantas says it is restoring international flights faster than expected. ceo alan joyce told bloomberg that he expects to return to 100 sent of cree covid bookings by march of next year. >> there is pent-up demand for people that could travel for two years though in australia, we are seeing 100% growth in leisure travel to the pre-covid levels. and business and corporate are back to 90%. some of it is mental. we can see the economic activity and the underlying growth rates being really strong. and there is still a lack of capacity compared to demand
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particularly internationally. internationally, we are only at 50% of pre-covid levels and demand is stronger than that. at the end of the year, we will get to 85%. if i could get more aircraft into the air, i would do it tomorrow. >> let's break down the component parts of supply and demand. you are having to raise fares. aviation fuel is super expensive. how far away from the point when we see destruction as a result of those high fares? >> because capacity as well below where it was and we are still a long way away from [indiscernible] we are seeing average airfares easily covering the oil price. even as we put more capacity back on, we think that could be the case for some time.
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we may be in this situation for a year or two where we have less capacity than demand. >> the rba is raising rates aggressively as is the fed and the inflation is a massive problem. what do you think -- how do you see the -- >> what always happens in a recessionary environment that there is a hit on demand. there are some unique things. unemployment -- we are at 3.9 percent in australia. savings during covid went through the roof. and you have people willing to spend the money even with the outlook looking -- with the tightening monetary policy. we have not seen any pullback by people traveling are people going into restaurants. you have a unique situation. monetary policy and a recession
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would put pressure on the air travel. but the pressure can be managed with a supply and demand. and at the moment, i think this will continue for some time. we have less supply than demand so i think we can cope with that environment. >> alan joyce speaking with guy johnson. taking a look at the day ahead. in new zealand, second-quarter consumer confidence is at the lowest level on record falling to 78.7. in australia, central bank watchers looking for the minutes of the rba interest rate meeting. and the governor expected to give a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at an event. >> take a quick look at u.s. futures. it looks for now like we might be coming back after the juneteenth holiday and celebrating. right now, s&p futures and
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nasdaq 100 futures both pointing to a gain of 1% at the open. dow jones pointing to a gain of 0.9%. cash treasuries, that trading resumes later in tokyo after today's holiday. we continue to monitor the dollar index. coming up in the next hour, we have the outlook for the energy sector. goldman-s samantha dart joins us to discuss price pressures facing the market. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: australia." " daybreak: asia" is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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