>> how do you actually get inflation under control? >> the only thing you can do is try to bring the economy back into equilibrium. >> i would not say we are out of the woods when it comes to inflation. >> abandoning the 2% range target. >> we are probably in a slope patch. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. thank you for being with us on

radio and television. next thursday, the midmarket of 2022. there is only one word out there, recession. lisa: recession as we look at a correction and a bear market. we see a rally continuing today. the nature of gains highlights the conservative nature of investors, people hiding out with the safer stocks. tom: price up, yield down. 3.01%. what have you seen away from full facing credit? lisa: it depends how deep the recession is. this has been the theme of the weekend that year, how deep other contours of this recession? do you get income from some of these higher-rated assets like investment grade credit? you continue to see outflows we

have not seen in history for bond funds. there is a feeling we have further gloom to go if we get some sort of recession. tom: in all that can be said here as we will readjust over the weekend and really think about the path forward, kailey leinz in for jon ferro, what is the item you see in the weekend reading russian mark -- weekend reading? kailey: i will be looking at 10:00 a.m. chairman powell told us he is keeping a very close eye on the expectations. tom: let's dive into that. when we look out five years and look out another five years, the basic idea, authors questioning. kailey: that is something bill ackerman raised in a series of tweets. he said this bond market as we

sought to your yields coming in rather than going up further is misreading the federal reserve. every fed official is moving toward 75% in july. inflation expectations are becoming entrenched fed. tom: the friday news is a snooze fast according to kailey leinz. let me give you this newsfest data check. maybe there is a auction or something today. futures up 33, dow futures up 240. i have to mention bit dog, crypto is here. crypto has had a quiet week. brent crude, $111.

yen down to 135. i go to the to your yield, 3.02%. 10 year yield, 3.09%. lisa: it is a boring tape and that is news and in of itself. tom: yes. lisa: suddenly, we get calm. perhaps the bond market is wrong. the bond market is consistently saying the fed will not have to move as quickly. we are seeing a deterioration in the economy. we get the latest read at 10:00 a.m. with the university of michigan sentiment survey. we are expecting it to fall to another lowest level going back more than a decade. a lot of us will be looking at the expectations that consumers have for inflation over the next five to 10 years.

the pessimism that businesses and consumers are feeling are putting a natural damper already. you are seeing that in retail sales and as people start to restrain some spending. at 4:00 p.m., speaking on the u.s. economic outlook. expected to downgrade some of the expectations after speaking first with jerome powell and janet yellen. how does she dovetail a u.s. economic outlook with rest of the world that is in much worse shape? how did she talk about the systemic risks? g7 government leaders gather in germany for a three day summit ahead of the annual meet up in madrid on tuesday. what can they do, with so many of these issues specific idiosyncratic problems, whether it has to do with supply chain or the war that russia is waging?

tom: this is really important and will not really cover it today because the news flow is extraordinary. there is another idiosyncratic item, whether it is el salvador and crypto, the philippine election, on and on. it is like idiosyncratic june. lisa: idiosyncratic pockets of distress. prices people have not seen. tom: i will make a banner, you will not see it on radio. pre-pandemic inflation expectations, 2.9%. february 1980, 9.7%. eric freedman has lived this, he is chief investment officer. how do you defend ownership of equities for people who say we have been through high inflation before, we'll get through high inflation again? eric: you have to really frame

what will add value in this environment. long-duration equities. those with earnings hopes versus actual earnings deliveries, that is up. we think cash flow and owning cash flowing equities still make sense. the idea that you have to own equity is not where we are right now. inflation expectations, i think lisa had a great week earlier in the week, when you see the two-year moving 50 basis point clips, that shows us the market is not fluid. we are more on the bear side. the fed will be more restricted. >> what do you think the market is currently underestimating with the fed? how far they will go or the resolve to take a more

aggressive stance? eric: we are normally glass half-full. in this environment, we think what is different with respect to the fed's intention boils down to liquidity. we are entering a seasonal part of the calendar, if you will. if you add on top of that the risk that is probably not being talked about enough, june 28, when the m2 data source. as you have timing monetary policy which we think chair powell has been more the good uncle, if you will, talking down expectations. if you add on top the risk of m2 contracts and the fed gets more aggressive, we think that is a recipe for tougher financial conditions. we think the fed has a mandate

that will be challenged by oil prices. we think shelter costs remain a lagging indicator. there will be a lag effect that will push the fed to be more aggressive. >> we heard from the chairman saying the resolve was unconditional. it raises the question of if the fed will flinch. given everything you just said, is this market appropriately pricing the risk or do we have a further fall? eric: we think we have further to fall. it is like the university of virginia basketball team. they might show some flashes of a high put an offense, but it is a formidable defense of team. this is an environment where having that more defensive cash flow nature makes sense for investors. we talked last time we were on about the nature of two

repricings. repricing 1 -- we still think that first repricing meaning yield up and prices down will continue on the front of the curve. the second part boils down to the -- we think there is some vulnerability to s&p earnings. s&p earnings have been pretty sticky but we think the risk of demand for the second repricing is going up. that is why there is more downside. a lot of noise in the next couple weeks. we think the bias will be the balance of the summer. tom: have to wait for virginia-colgate in basketball. eric freedman. i don't think there is anyone over 6'on colgate basketball. eric freedman, thank you so much. i have no idea what he was talking about with university of virginia. kailey, university of virginia

hockey is just extraordinary. two the even have an ice rink in charlottesville? kailey: i think it got converted into a restaurant. tom: converted into a denny's. [laughter] tom: of the blur of news today, what has your attention? lisa: university of michigan consumer sentiment survey. how much is the gloomy rhetoric a self-fulfilling prophecy? tom: i will go away from economics. lisa, as you mentioned, all of these idiosyncratic moments, starting at the beginning of the week with tunisia essentially shut down. there are a lot of international relations stories to think about , including but the president's trip coming up in july. the historic judicial decisions

from washington and legislative decisions, as well. on the equity markets at 7:00 a.m. stay with us, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i am ritika gupta. it is being called the biggest breakthrough in u.s. gun safety in three decades. the senate voted 65-33 for bipartisan legislation for background checks, secure schools and fight gun violence. the senate passed the bill hours after the supreme court issued a landmark ruling the could mean more guns on the street. federal reserve chair jerome powell -- commitment to curbing inflation. he wrapped up two days of testimony on capitol hill by warning the fed is far from its

inflation target. she said she supports raising interest rates by 75 basis points next month. in the u.k., prime minister boris johnson -- the conservative party lost a key parliament seat in southwest england. it is first time i constituency has not voted conservative. the liberal democrats won the seat. bloomberg has learned beijing has asked foreign business chambers to advise the economy. the chamber responded with one overriding message. hackers have stolen $100 million in a cryptocurrency attack. harmony said it is working with national authorities and forensic specialist to identify the hackers and retrieve the

money. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> in honor of pride month and juneteenth, bloomberg brings you a special equality series every thursday in june at 1:00 eastern. bloomberg equality, celebrating inclusion. >> i am full convinced that ukraine is the european nation. they fight every day against the aggressor. they defend european values. they defend democratic values.

they are fighting not only for their freedom, but for our freedom. tom: the economist from lithu ania, conversation yesterday. we will look at the domestic gun issues in america in our next hour with emily wilkins. we go international today on brussels. i can only say yesterday, that was a conversation of the moment before we get to the zeitgeist of the weekend in brussels. what i find so important is this word blockade. putin said there is a blockade. is there? maria: if you ask the russians, they say that is the way it is heading. the lithuanians said there is not. russia could technically use

that to say this is belligerent behavior, an act of war and potentially target the baltics. when you look at the map, this is a nato country. this is coming right before a nato meeting. eastern european countries will ask the president of the united states and germany that they want more men, more weapons fully stationed on the eastern flank. lisa: we heard strong words out of germany, including even if we do not feel it yet, we are in a gas crisis. german officials came out and said there could be a lehman moment in russia's curtailing of gas supplies to european nations. how is that being received? maria: i have never heard that kind of language from a german official. we all know what lehman brothers means, what that triggered. to use that kind of language to talk about the energy crisis

potentially facing the european union shows you the severity behind the scenes. there are real concerns today that russia could at one point unilaterally cut the flow so europeans are essentially racing against the clock to get the storage ready by november. if not, they are essentially in the hands of whatever prudent -- vladimir putin. that is the last thing the europeans want, panic. it does catch up to the reality on the ground. the europeans have three months to fill up the storage otherwise they get to winter, the most vulnerable time of the year in europe and you are in the hands of putin. kailey: that is something that has dogged the biden abundance ration. he is not in great domestic political standing. as he heads to theg7, can you

characterize the power he brings to this meeting compared to the one in 2021? emily: it is not as much power as he had previously. his ratings in some polls have slipped under 40%. the republicans are likely to take the u.s. house and potentially the u.s. senate and that will limit biden's ability to get things done. there are private concerns that german officials have saying the u.s. has been such a leader in keeping the e.u. and allies together and keeping pressure on moscow, they are worried the u.s.'s role will be compromised if they have divided government. it is a difficult position for biden to be in. he is not coming with the same power he had last time and there are questions about what the administration will look like moving forward. kailey: maria, what are you hearing from your european sources?

maria: i think i would tone it down big time from the international perspective. every country has politics and everyone can see the polling for the president of the united states and the approval rating, but when you look at the weapons, the u.s. has been an incredible supplier for ukraine, much more than some european countries. when you look at the money the country is paying into ukraine, it is huge. this is an administration the europeans can count on. this is not a problem the u.s. has created for europe. this is an issue in the making for 10 years for the european union. now the penny drops. this is entirely self-made. tom: thank you so much. in our next hour for international audience, we will address the two issues of gun

legislation and judicial activity in washington we have seen in the last 24 hours. lisa, futures up 31. to me, the heart of the economic analysis this weekend, headline inflation, let's call it 8%, core inflation, 6%, it might be declining. lisa: we have heard from the fed chair himself that they are looking at both because headline inflation is what allows people to have longer-term expectations. i am trying to wrap my head around what the two year looks like. either way, they are seeing it come down in a way that it is not in actuality at least that is the implication how low some have gone. tom: let's turn to the esteemed 21st century philosopher, kailey leinz. [laughter] can you explain why stock goes up if there is such recession worries? kailey: it is hard to assign

actual narrative around market action but we have seen yields move higher and put pressure on the real giants within the equity market, tech stocks. multiples have come down but they are still richly valued. stocks have been pressured by higher yields. if we are talking recession, some of the cyclical value trades that have done well but not hold up as well in a slower growth environment. tom: lisa, that goes to what eric freedman said about pressure. everyone has an angle on this. he sees a second tranche of margin challenges. lisa: all i can say is you have meta or facebook down 53%. how much is being priced in, where is it being priced in and what is being purchased? it is a rotation with health

care stocks and certain tech stocks. it is very nuanced. tom: let's talk about the real yield. this is important. my entourage showed up late, they were all out partying, i have a 10 year real yield, 0.57%. that is a lower real yield over the week. lisa: this goes to the feeling that the fed will not be as aggressive. their balance sheet has not come down at all. whatever quantitative tightening should probably be. tom: tell me i am not doing the real yield this afternoon for ferro. lisa: i do not know. i think the entourage is coming in. tom: stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ tom: "bloomberg surveillance." good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro is of the suite, a well-deserved week of kailey leinz is. in for him, lisa abramowicz and tom keene. i am going to make it quick, equities our app. the nasdaq 100 -- equities are

up. the nasdaq 100 up 0.9%. the vix, 28 .64. dow futures down. as lisa mentioned, a -- to say the least. we will dive in a little early on banks. yes, it is after the stress tests, i want to give you a national indicator. talk about milk, live cattle, we have the other prices, lisa and i whining about her 24/7. in maine, there is a place everyone goes to, north of portland, beal's lobster pier. i have a leading citizen of maine. a lobster roll there is $41 99 cents. tell me what that does to tourism in maine. guest: those are expensive

prices. for all of the lobster lovers, that is a steep price to pay for a lobster roll. that the early signs in the state of maine, they are on track to break records for tourism this year. so the prices are not keeping people away. maybe instead of eating two or three lobster rolls, they will have just one. [laughter] tom: ok, let's talk about the stress test. kmart glorified. the banks are minting money. but how do the banks deal with inflation and cutting costs with cash flow up to their eyeballs? gerard: it is a really good question. what is interesting with the banks is that with these raising interest rates and the assets in their balance sheets, urc margins widening out.

if the fed raises rates again in july as they are expected to by another 75 basis points, you are likely to see net interest revenue growth this year for the largest banks between 15% and 20%. we have not seen that kind of growth in decades. how he will combat higher inflation is they are getting higher revenue growth through spreads. remember, when the margin expands, there is no incremental cost, you are not hiring more officers or opening branches, this goes right to the bottom line. that is how they will combat inflation, as well as keeping it tight rein on expenses. lisa: so the income is potentially a big buffer against losses, and the ability to buy back billions of dollars of their shares as they will probably announcing the next couple of weeks. why is the kbw index down, and why do people still see this

area as a potential source of losses? gerard: that challenge investors are having today is the tug-of-war between better revenue growth, as just mentioned, from net interest revenue, partially offset by the rising cost of credit. remember, following the 2020 pandemic, the banks built-up their reserves for massive credit losses that never materialized, for their balance sheets today are incredibly clean, they are de-risked. investors remember 2009, and they think that is what will happen in this recession. we are thinking more 2001 and 2008. the downside for banks this year is that fear that credit will deteriorate. lisa: a lot of this is fear, and it may not be reflected in the

fundamentals. when do investors start to look at banks to take on more risk, not with respect to lending to consumers headed into a downturn, but with acquisitions, using their cash to buy back shares, to invest in the technology that this is the future? gerard: it is interesting, on the mergers & acquisitions front urc small -- you are seeing other deals, small deals relative to their balance sheet and capital. but in terms of big bank mergers and acquisitions, that is under back-burnered right now. the heads of the red a agencies in washington, new changes -- the heads of the regulatory agencies in washington have new rules coming on mergers & acquisitions. many of the banks are cutting-edge on technology, like jp morgan and bank of america. kailey: growth has been really hard for banks to get back in the post-pandemic area, there was so much fiscal stimulus so

people do not need to take out loans. i wonder what your view is on what loan growth is going to look like. earlier this week, bloomberg had a scoop that jp morgan is laying out many people in its home lending business because of higher rates? gerard: the residential mortgage business is very cyclical, just like the investment banking business. because of the rise in rates, many homeowners are not refinancing. that is cutting into the origination volumes on residential mortgages. however, what we're seeing is that as we move further away from the pandemic, and many americans have less savings now because they have used their stimulus, credit card receivables finally are back to 2019 levels. commercial lending is growing into the high single digits. you're seeing loan growth tied to normal gdp growth and with nominal gdp growth mechanic this year in the mid-to-high single digits because of inflation, you will likely see banks build

their loan portfolios in the mid-to-high single digits. and that is led by commercials in the consumer. tom: as we are beating the drum towards the university of michigan sentiment numbers later this morning, how do you view the health of the american consumer now? gerard: according to numbers that we see, and evidenced by bank of america, what they're chairman, brian moynihan pointed out last week in boston, urc of the consumer in very good shape. according to the bank of america numbers, you are seeing that consumers that had about $1500 in deposits prior to the pandemic, that bank of america customer today has something close to $5,000. so the consumer, based upon their debt income is in good shape, and we anticipate that as long as employment stays relatively strong, the consumer is in good shape. tom: in the pandemic and in the

digital lift that we all had, speeding up and going faster and faster, given the pressures banks face, how pertinent is the branch system? gerard: it is really interesting. our first real jobs, you had real paper checks that you had to deposit, branches were important to capture those. that no longer happens, as we all know. so the branch system today is less important than it was 30 years ago. as you see in the numbers, we are down probably 20% from peak branches back in 2008 when the introduction of the iphone came on. branches will always be here, but they will be far and few of them in the next 20 years. tom: al from new jersey, saying tell cassidy that he hasn't had a real job in 20 years.

[laughter] thank you so much, gerard cassidy from rbc capital management. lisa, we have to talk about this boom economy, cassidy just itemized in maine, a beal's lobster, this week at the abramovitz household can have a sixpack of live lobster for $550, 92 dollars per lobster. sorry, lisa, that is a boom economy by any description. lisa: except that karen could not have a $550 sixpack of lobster rolls as much as that does sound delicious. maine lobster rolls are cold and the connecticut ones are hard, and we can have that debate. so far, companies have been able to pass along the costs. people are still buying those lobster rolls. tom: exactly. paola said that in his lead sentence, he said it is a strong economy -- chairman powell said that. yet recession dominates this

week's discussion. lisa: how much are people saying that this is what the fed has to eventually cause to bring prices down, and how much is the narrative running ahead of reality? that is what we are seeing with yields coming in, bond prices up. people expect already in a recession. it is mind-spinning. hard to put together especially at a time when you have companies and individual analysts saying, everything is still really good, we don't know what you're talking about. tom: one viewer from virginia beach says, you lose the lobster and give us some virginia crab cheddar. from everything you see, it is a boom. for our international audience, we need to say this, it is a crazy boom economy. kailey: that's the thing we talk about, sentiment has been sour for some time and it is only starting to reflect at the margin on activity data. we had retail sales disappointing, but it's not like things are turning dramatically

as sentiment has. the question now is that now that savings accounts are drawn down, and people are turning to leverage to keep spending, at what point do things turn in a sharper fashion? lisa: not that i want people to be unhappy, but let's reflect the reality. if you look at wages, they are as negative as they have ever been. people are buying less with the money they are earning, even as they get raises. so a boom economy goes directly to the point you are talking about, it is a boom economy in nominal terms only, not in inflation-adjusted terms. it is a masked, tepid economy. tom: i would partition folks across desk aisles. the people at beal's lobster shocker in the upper desk aisles. really interesting conversation on banking.

we will have that, and jp morgan earnings, i am guessing, third week of july. nasdaq is up 1%. the vix is a 28.69. the dollar having functional weakness. stay with lobster brick. -- stay with us after our lobster break. >> keeping it up-to-date around the world, i am ritika gupta. the senate and the supreme court have underscored the deep divisions on gun policy. the senate passed gun safety legislation that calls for improving background checks, securing schools and giving the states money to combat gun violence. the house is also expected to approve the measure. it came hours after the supreme court issued a landmark ruling that would mean all guns on streets of the big cities. five republican members of congress are said to have contacted the white house after the 2020 election, seeking pardons from president, according to video testimony played by the committee

investigating the january 6 insurrection. they included matt gaetz, scott perry, rudy and mo brooks. bloomberg has learned the u.s. is set to escalate a claim that mexico violated a free-trade agreement. a direct outcome if it could lead to the u.s. imposing tariffs on mexican imports, and could increase tensions between the two countries. wall street's biggest banks are set to return tens of dollars to investors. they all passed the federal reserve's annual tests of their ability to withstand market turmoil. banks such as jp morgan, morgan stanley and goldman sachs, could handle a severe recession. in the u.k., consumer confidence dropped to a record low this month. rising prices, a squeeze on incomes and disruptions from strikes took a toll on the national mood. its measure of sentiment fell to 41 in june, the lowest reading

in the 48-your survey. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am rich cowen group top. this is bloomberg. -- i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is unconditional, our commitment. the reason is that we need to, in a particular situation, we have a labor market that is unsustainably hot. we are very far from over inflation target. we really need to restore price stability and get information back under 2% because without that, wound not have a sustained period of maximum employment. tom: jerome powell on his unconditional focus at 10:00 a.m. this morning, the university of michigan survey on inflation expectations. it is not a boring friday.

that is a key statistic for the weekend for the month. lisa: when do people start talking about things getting on -- getting unmoored, like bill ackman with saying, that the fed has to fight aggressively no matter what the economic data is? tom: our guest is a founder and geopolitical strategist. he joins us right now. i want to digress into the british elections, and the uproar of the conservative tory party leader residing at 5:30 a.m. london time. and i want to go out far west of london, to cornwall. this is the time of now, not poldark. in lovely devon, boris johnson was absolutely crushed. what is the symbolism that he was crushed in friendly devon,

going back to 1935? guest: it is another blow to this prime minister, who nevertheless, as you would have seen, tom, has vowed to carry on exactly as he has been. we have had scandal after scandal. the chairman of the conservative party, as you said, resigned in a sternly worded letter this morning, yet both johnson doesn't seem to have plans to go anywhere. it tells you a lot about the time that we are living in. there certainly is no shame in politics, no source of accountability, and as long as the labour leader keir starmer is not a serious challenge, johnson will probably stay where he is. it is for defying the laws of political revenue. by elections in the u.k. are not

typically very much participated in. pollsters will tell you that they are of benign importance, but in the face of so many crises this government is facing, how many times can boris johnson get on the plane to go and see his friend zelenskyy in kyiv when things are looking so tough at home? lisa: you point to the lack of political gravity that boris johnson has. that brings us to some of the strikes and protests that we are seeing europe throughout europe and throughout the world. what is the hotspot you are watching, and what is the consequence with politically and economically that will result? tina: strikes and inflation go hand-in-hand. and coming out of the pandemic and probably heading into a recession, and with workers who are on fixed contracts not having seen appear varies very long time, you know, the old

summer of discontent term is being bandied about a lot. you guys were talking about the price of lobster rolls. similarly, i could say that british airways is threatening, meaningfully here in the u.k., to start striking as soon as school vacations begin. that is going to be very unpopular. the question is whether it will force a compromise in advance in the u.k. france also is known to have strikes and that will recur. i guess i feel as though there is a sense of helplessness about this. for so many public sector and other workers, wages have been stagnant throughout the pandemic . lisa: we talked about lobster rolls tongue-in-cheek because this is the least of our concerns. it is basic staples -- wheat,

meat, groceries and gas prices that are impeding, as tom said, the lower deciles. . how do we look at spreading to offset the pressures that are very tangible and a big threat to the low income individuals around the world, in europe and in the world? tina: the people most accurately affected are the poorest, those who depend on grain supplies that have been blockaded by russia out of seaports. that is happening in the middle east, where there are other concerns such as arab spring 2.0, that's of thing. in other countries, we don't have riots and civil unrest in the same kind of way, we get more organized expressions of civil discontent. that means strikes and protests.

governments, having responded with so much physical largess during the pandemic, will be expected to step up. and what i think we're are already seeing is fuel prices and subsidies for fuel prices are going to come first. winter heating and fuel allowances, those kinds of subsidies in the u.k. and europe i think i when and not if. kailey: as we talk about the academic pain so many countries are feeling, are countries going to start seeing a dissolution of the resolve of the allies to continue fighting russia when it is inflicting so much economic pain on their populations in return? are we reaching the breaking point we are not there yet. that at the g7 meetings, the measures being contemplated, such as gas rationing in germany, the question of whether

russia flat-out cuts gas supplies to europe in punishment, a tactic called coercive diplomacy, it is very real. it will be winter before we see push come to shove on this. that is why getting that gas storage facilities in europe filled is crucial. they have to fight this. they cannot get into russia. the leaders understand this. can they communicate to their citizens? that is a bigger question. politicians don't like to take, they like to give. tom: tina fordham, thank you so much. here on the collective side of issues, including a stunning election result in britain, truly historic. the historical rich of that is back to pre-world war ii. i have to mention tunisia. i got some females saying, what are you mentioning tunisia, no one cares? let's remember that arab spring. the arab spring is happening in ecuador. and lisa, i am sorry, it is the end of june, where food dynamics

and food banks for the poor really click in. in quito, is really challenging. we are showing the protests in ecuador. we cannot use currency as a litmus paper for social struggle. lisa: right. bill dudley pointing to the international concerns as one of the financial stressors that we should look at it in addition to the social ones. tom: we will look forward into july and maybe july and august at food challenges. a look at corn, a bushel of corn is stable through the week in america. futures are up 29. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> how do you actually get inflation under control, especially with the love of the beyond central banks and policy control? >> the only thing you can do is tampa demand to bring economy back to equilibrium. >> i wouldn't suggest we are out of the woods when it comes to inflation. >> the fed has abandoned the specific 2% range target. >> indicators are indicating that we are on a slow pack. >> this is "bloomberg

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