>> haidi: good morning.

wacom -- welcome to daybreak australia. i'm haidi stroud-watts and. shery: i'm shery ahn. president biden reboots effort to counter china's infrastructure initiative after an earlier campaign faltered. the fallout of the u.s. supreme court move to overturn abortion right. a new poll suggests a majority of americans disapprove. u.s. futures across asia after we saw a rebound in the equity market with the s&p 500 gaining more than 3% friday, the best day since may. for the week gains were up more than 6%, the second-best reading this year. the vix is well below the levels we have seen it, past bear

market. we are talking a level around 27. we continue to watch the oil space. we are seeing a little pressure in the u.s. session. in the asian session also we are talking about two consecutive back-to-back declines for oil prices since early april. that is to do with concerns about demand disruption given we have continued to see concerns about recession reflected in the treasury space. the 10 year holding around 313. look at this chart. we have seen a rally in the treasury space with the two year yield seeing its biggest gain since mid-may. we are already seeing the market price things now billy -- now, rate cuts already in 2023. we are not talking about rate cuts if we see a slowdown in the global economy. we had sentiment improving slightly friday given the

university of michigan and placement -- inflation expectation numbers. concerns are still there about inflation risk and recession risk really and fed -- affecting the market. haidi: those risks flagged in asia as well with the australian treasurer talking about how this will be a prolonged problem through the rest of this year and next year as well, saying inflation may worsen in the coming months and only improve in 2023. look at the outlook with equity futures. in sydney, one point 6% according to early indications. the aussie dollar is seeing some fight against the resistance trendline, just under 70 u.s. cents. kiwi stocks up .6%. the s&p 500 posting the best one-day gain since may 2020. we have seen these comments

about the economy from the fed really rejecting the idea we could see a soft landing. dollar-yen -- dollars less yet is one to watch. against -- the yen value just above 135 to the dollar. we are watching bond yields here in australia as well as we get the start of trading in asia, shery. shery: we cannot escape fears about inflation and recession even at the g7 this week. it leaders talking about how to tackle price pressures, not to mention the threat of a recession looming. it is a lot to do with russia, with commodities exports and sanctions on the country. we are seeing leaders now try to double up the pressure on russia. a summit statement showed that the g7 will commit to providing support to ukraine, potentially using revenues from tariffs and imports from russia to support

ukraine. you may also see the u.s., u.k., japan, and canada announcing a ban on new gold imports from russia. pressure on the country is increasing as we have all these leaders gathering in germany. haidi: you talk about these sustained pressure over the last weeks and months since the invasion of ukraine. we could be closing in on a key moment in terms of the impact of the sanctions. russia is teetering on the edge of its third foreign default in a century. in the coming hours we will know more. we are hours away from the financial battle that the u.s. and others have been waging against the kremlin over the ukraine invasion. we are seeing bond payments box because of wide-ranging sanctions. that ends sunday night. there will not be an official declaration. russia is already disputing the

designation of an official default. there will be default monday morning according to the bond documents we have cited. this comes as a key time as world leaders continue to talk about what can be done to address the situation in ukraine. shery: the foreign default for the first time since 1918 is willie huge. this summit is coming at a time when it is challenging for president joe biden as well. we are talking soaring prices and now back-to-back decisions by the u.s. supreme court on gun rights and abortion now signaling a reversal in his political fortunes that could not come at a worse time for his international allies. let's bring in our washington editor tony june scott -- tony czuczka. president biden mentioned russia

when it comes to the g7 summit. what is at stake here in all these discussions among leaders? tony: it is fair to say to go back to what you are saying at the top, that biden went to the summit in germany looking weaker, certainly, weaker domestically than he did one year ago. that was not long after he was elected. you referenced the domestic defeats he suffered. so, it is a moment for biden to show leadership that the g7. it is also on all of these measures against russia, of course, it is a moment for the entire group of seven that includes european powers, japan, and canada as well to show resolve. i think that is where this pledge to support ukraine for as long as it takes, a very sweeping plan, comes in and includes everything from arming the ukrainians to financial and

humanitarian aid. it is very broad. at some point it takes on germany and france. which, for a long time now, have been concerned about sort of taking on russia frontally and have been calling for diplomacy alongside supporting ukraine's military defense. haidi: the president tried to reboot his build back better world program to counter china's belt and road initiative. how did that go down? we know that the president has struggled to get domestic legislation through congress. tony: time will tell. it is a revival of something that they u.s. or biden came with last year, as you say, it really faltered. again, you have to say this year as well.

there are other issues demanding attention. very strongly such as ukraine, as we just said, inflation. that is a huge domestic problem for all the leaders. there is not much clarity about the details of the initiative. the headline at $200 billion, it remains to be seen how much of that will come from the government and from companies. the umbrella pledge is clear. it is a way to regain some footing in reaches of the world, africa and others were china has made inroads. in promoting investment including technology, itself an appeal to intense confrontation and conflict. that is where this fits in.

the proof will be in the pudding. shery: jodi, one of the top issues here in the u.s. has been the constitutional rights on abortion being struck down in the supreme court. give us the latest reaction and how this affects president biden and his administration. jodi: the decision had been leaked in a historic way. even though people knew it was coming or felt they knew it was coming, there was still a lot of historic reaction over the weekend. we saw protests across the country for abortion rights, women's groups going out and really rallying saying that they will fight this. then, we did see some on the other side who had been antiabortion who were cheering

that this happened. the on that, the question is, what happened in the states? nine states where more than 40 million people live, at least nine states have banned abortion starting as soon as the decision came down. we are seeing other states that are now taking this through the courts. we will see if these trigger laws take effect and that could take up to 30 days in these states. in other states like california, minnesota, they are trying to pass laws that will make them sanctuary states where women from other states where abortion is banned can come get procedures done there. so, we will see a lot of work.

we will see a lot of cases over the next few weeks and months. right now it is a patchwork. but, the federal right to an abortion is no more. haidi: we have heard the president say roe v. wade is on develop when it comes up -- on the ballot when it comes up to the midterms. is this strategy going to work given there is a fair amount of anger? are there strategies he can tap here? shery: that will be a key question. there is a some talk about trying to pass legislation on the federal level to protect abortion. that would be very hard with a divided congress and nobody really thinks it will happen. the minority leader said he

would be willing to support a 15 week ban. in states like california new york where they have protected abortion. it's really unclear what president biden can do. people on the left are saying that this will become an issue with the midterm. there are other issues with the midterm. given president biden's low approval ratings, and other things. this and it is divided and there are key races where independent voters, suburban women voters, may be voting on this issue. they could become a force. that could swing the sinners. that could allow the democrats to keep the senate. there will be so many issues out there that will be determined in the midterms, not just abortion

rights. shery: bloomberg political news director jodi schneider and tony czuczka there with the top stories. let's get to vonnie quinn. body: --vonnie: hong kong covid cases rise ahead of a planned visit by president xi jinping to mark the 25th anniversary of chinese rule. the city reported just over 1900 cases sunday. xi jinping will attend the ceremonies in hong kong including the swearing in of the new chief executive, john lee. nasa launched a rocket from australia. it is the first time the space agency used a commercial launchpad outside the u.s. from a space center in australia's northern territory. it is the first of three planned launches. nasa will use the rocket to

investigate phenomenon viewable only from the southern hemisphere. beijing will offer $1500 of financial aid to qualified buyers to swap or resale cars. that follows similar measures to shanghai last month. global news 24 hours a day on air and bloombergquint take powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. shery: we look ahead to the ecb annual retreat in central portugal, unlikely an escape for central bankers under pressure to rein in inflation. also, we discuss the economic repercussions of taking away american women's right to choose. the country's biggest study on

the financial impact of abortion. this is bloomberg.

>> it will be very important to make sure that if we are going to go through a period of pain we slay the inflation dragon. haidi: inflation is still on the key theme for markets. central bankers get a chance to exchange views in prison over the next few days. we will hear from jay powell at the ecb form starting tuesday in portugal. on the geopolitical side g7 leaders are meeting in germany including the u.s. announcing a ban on new gold imports from russia. that meeting is followed by a nato summit in madrid well the group -- where the group will layout its joint view on china.

president is expected to make his first trip to taiwan in seven years. the theme of the week. new data is due across europe and pce in the u.s.. from the farthest point of europe's periphery, fermentation. investigators should to 10 for our policy panel. that is your week ahead. another key issue that will continue to dominate the headlines this week is the u.s. supreme court decision to overturn roe v. wade. president biden said the high court has made terrible decisions and signaled that democrats would make abortion rights a camping theme for midterm elections in november. >> this decision is a call mila

div effort -- as a result of an effort over decades to upset the balance of our law. it is a realization of an extreme ideology by the supreme court in my view. the court has done what it never has before, expressly taken away a constitutional right that is so fundamental to so many americans. president biden also saying that the health and lives of women in the u.s. is near -- now at risk. our next guest has the date of to back up that view as the lead researcher of the largest economic study on the financial impacts of abortion in the u.s.. professor diana greene foster joins us now with more. diana, thank you for joining us. give us the key takeaways of your study. you have women who were given abortions or turned away. then, you examine where they

were at economically five years later. what did you find? diana: when we look at the well-being of women, over 1000 women, we look at those who received an abortion, those who were denied. they start with similar economic circumstances. over time those who were denied and abortion experience more poverty, where's economic outcomes in terms of lower employment, less ability to take care of existing children, more likely to report they do not have enough money for basic living needs like food and transportation. so, it was a long-term economic effect for a group of people already disadvantage. shery: within that group what did you find in terms of people of color? diana: in the u.s. people of color are disproportionately low income and among the people who seek abortions. when this ruling comes down, it will be people of color,

low-income people, miners, people with disabilities that will be very unlikely to circumvent their states laws by traveling out of state or bordering pills online. those people will experience the economic hardships. not only economic, but the physical health hardships of being denied an abortion and carrying an unwanted pregnancy to term. haidi: how generational is in the trauma and economic consequences? you then, presumably, will have a higher amount of babies carried to term and needing to be adopted. doesn't that also potentially foster the potential for economic and other types of hardship as well? diana: i predict very few people will place their child up for adoption. very few people go through the literal life-threatening experience of nine months of

pregnancy and delivery and then decide to place the child. i think most people will choose to parent their children. not only will they experience economic hardships, they will be less likely to have an intended pregnancy under better circumstances later. that better circumstance, that better relationship, the more stable housing are less likely to emerge when people are raising children they were not ready to raise. many people who have abortion are already parents. many want to have children later under better circumstances. when they are unable to get an abortion, they are less likely to go on and have an intended pregnancy later. haidi: if more women keep these unwanted pregnancies, how poor is the outlook when it comes to maternal outcome? diana: there will be serious physical health risks. we see that in complications

from delivery including 1 -- two people who died after childbirth and long-term chronic health problems that are a result of pregnancy. we underestimate the physical health burden of pregnancy. there will be economic hardships that last for years. the pregnancy is is unwanted. rarely is the child once they are born on wanted, but their full life trajectory is made harder by not being able to get they wanted abortion. shery: when you say people, you are not only talking about the mothers. this has consequences for not only the child that is born but other children in the family. diana: 60% of the people who get abortions in the u.s. are already mothers. they often give the reason for abortion that they want to take care of the children they already have. when they are denied an abortion, we see that their

existing children are more likely to live in poverty. those existing children are less likely to hit developmental milestones if their mothers deny them abortion compared to if their mother receives an abortion. it is not just their pregnancy, it's their existing children and their chance of having intended children later under more auspicious economic and physical health circumstances. shery: this reversal of roe v. wade, do you expect all of your findings to be more were through time? diana: i think that the experience we document in the study will become the experience of many people who want an abortion and cannot get one. we will see a deepening of economic hardship in this country. haidi: university of california in san francisco professor diana greene foster, thank you for your insight. we have more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg.

shery: u.s. futures are under a bit of pressure after the s&p 500 saw a rally friday, the best day since may 2020, the second-best week of the year. we watch energy stocks go. oil continues its dissent after the fourth back to back weekly loss since april as recession concerns continue. 20 more to

>> i think we will be fine. interest rate increases will slow down the economy, but

probably more to a trend pace of growth rather than below trend. i think it is a little early to have this debate about recession. >> if we do have a recession, it is likely it would be on the shallower end for two reasons. , private-sector sector balance sheets are in better shape than previous business cycles. two, while inflation is very high, i don't think it is as entrenched in expectations as it was in previous high inflation episodes in the 1970's and early 1980's. haidi: g7 leaders are discovering how to coordinate and tackle soaring inflation and ward off inflation. let's bring in a guest to discuss this. peter maguire joins us. great to have you. in your view, are recession fears under blown or overblown? where do you expect to the

possibility of a soft landing to hit? peter: when i look at the big picture, what the comments are, we are looking at some big announcements. where we are looking as far as numbers. over the next four to six months, 30% recession. over the next two years, 50-50. it is putting a lot of fear as far as a sentiment creating opportunity. haidi: when it comes to oil, the first back to back weekly loss since early april, is this significant given fundamentals are seeing inflation pushing higher? peter: there is no doubt about it.

over the last couple months, that 100 to 120 seems to be a constant. we pulled back relatively hard last week then saw a big move friday. a strong move to the upside. a little bit of a pullback. i think it will remain in that 105 to 115 sort of number. crude and wti, a little -- a couple bucks less than that. it is hard to put a number as far as where we will see it. shery: do you expect to see any stabilizing energy prices out of the g7 and what implications with that half or inflation, the commodity space? fx as well. we have seen the japanese yen under tremendous pressure given they are a huge energy importer as well. peter: they are saying maybe 145

is the land that -- line in the sand for the end. as far as the g7, we have seen a collapse in base metal prices. we will see a following one as far as energy? that may be on the radar. we may be at an 80 to $100 handle for the next four to five months. the uncertainty is still there as far as what the impact is too high energy prices and what it is doing to the global economy. that is the concern most traders are worrying about. certainly, high-energy prices. shery: if we do see easing on energy prices, perhaps some breathing room for europe? this chart is showing how european cpi's estimates. analysts seem most worried about the economy there. what do you think? peter: right, the fears as far as big recessionary fears running across europe, the

concerns as far as inflation, do they get double numbers, double digits, a 10 five handle for the euro-dollar and everyone is on their radar over the next six to eight weeks. what -- will we see a 103 or $102? that is what traders are looking at as far as the retail sector. i think that, yeah, the softness across the euro zone over the summer will be tough. haidi: when it comes to the aussie dollar, there are competing factors it seems. on the one hand, a recovering chinese demand story. you have the energy and resources boom, the commodity cycle. on the other hand, it does not do well when it comes to the downside for risk. what is the stronger catalyst? peter: well, main street in australia, certainly, there are inflationary fears.

69.5 as a handle for the aussie dollar. it seems to run between 68 to 71 or 72. that is very volatile and at the moment it appears a little subdued. so they have talked about as far as where we move forward. many traders say we will see 871 or 70 over the next couple weeks. we are looking at chinese data. we are appreciative of big global things. and it is just a market as far as volatility and opportunity. shery: xm ceo peter maguire, good to have is with you. goldman sachs is saying that there are signs of rising strain of dutch on u.s. households appearing in corporate earnings. target and walmart overestimated consumer demand and are now discounting items to move excess stock. that is likely to hit prices especially in the consumer

discretionary and auto industries. panic selling after sri lanka's economic collapse and the war in ukraine hammering frontier market that making the surge in yields more attractive for some investors. according to jp morgan, the average yield for junky and bonds is 90 basis points over treasuries. but there is worry about why bond spreads are easing. haidi: wall street rattled by worries of recession. but the cbo volatility index is well below levels seen in past their markets. let's get to bloomberg's chief rate correspondence for asia, garfield reynolds. what does this actually tell us? garfield: part of what it is telling us is confirming that this is very much produced by what the fed is doing with interest rates. the fed helped to create some

extremely high valuations in the post-pandemic period, cutting interest rates to zero down, almost anyone and imaginable amount of government debt to the money -- to pump money into the financial system. now interest rates are being jacked up and it is starting to trim the balance sheet. it is quite clear that this will go on for some time, even if they don't go 75 basis points again at the next meeting, they will go 50. they will probably go at least 50 in the following meeting. that will bring most stock valuations lower, just as a mechanical thing. so, there might not be much panic, but there are also not too many doubts, i hope, at least in the median turn -- term, given the outlook and things people like goldman sachs have been saying about the

outlook for consumer spending. shery: what does that long dissent from record levels on the s&p 500 mean for getting out of this bear market? we know that what the average in the past has been around 1000 days or so. does this mean we can also expect a longer timeframe to get out of the bear market? garfield: potentially, that would make sense. one thing to keep an eye on is the market usually turnaround well before economies do. there is also the question of where investors are going to put their money. we had that quite extraordinary surge last week in u.s. equities and in global equities. some narrative guessing that maybe people think inflation will peak or they have concerns

about a recession that might cause central bankers to slow their pace of rate increases. i think it is more likely that the recent jump is more about positioning as we get towards the end of the quarter. one thing to keep an eye out on is how rapidly central banks to raise rates going forward and whether they start to signal getting closer to where they think will be the peak. that is kind of what everybody is waiting for. when do we get peak interest rates in the cycle? when do central banks go as tight as they can? that is where the fun starts. when are they going to be easing off again? they are going to start hurting economies. at some stage, that will bring inflation under control. the concern that lingers, though, is of course, that even the fed has said that some of

these factors driving inflation higher are beyond its control. that his wife will take longer this time. haidi: bloomberg contributor garfield reynolds there. coming up, hong kong reporting nearly 2000 daily covid cases just ahead of a visit by president xi jinping to mark the 25th at a grocery of chinese rule. we get the latest ahead. this is bloomberg.

bonnie: vonnie: -- g7 leaders commit support to ukraine for its offense against russia's invasion according to a text of a draft statement from their summit in generate judge germany seen by bloomberg. they are weighing the possibility of using tariffs on imports from russia to support ukraine. in germany president biden is seeking the support of g7 leaders to counter china's flagship trade and infrastructure initiative. the u.s. wants to sponsor projects in low and middle income countries with mainly private sector investment. a poll by cbs news suggested that the a of americans disapprove of the supreme court

decision to overturn the right to an abortion. the surviving conducted friday and saturday found 59% of respondents disapproved of the ruling. along party lines and 78% of republicans backed the decision but 83% of democrats disapproved. wimbledon organizers say a bad on russia and belarus players may only last for this year. the ceo of the tenants club said the decision was difficult but right for now. wimbledon announced the ban in april blaming what it calls unjust military action from russia. global news 24 hours a day on air and bloombergquint take powered by more than 100 -- 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. haidi: shanghai's communist party chief declared victory defending the city against covid-19. restaurants in some areas are to resume dying in services this

week. let's get more from the bloomberg managing editor for asian business edward o'brien. edward, it seems that they have got to a point where really expo

be braver. >> you in your five years up to 1997 did introduce very controversial electoral reforms, to put the selection of lawmakers in the hands of hong kong. on reflection, do you take any blight -- blame for igniting something in hong kong that was not there before that led to a politicization of the city? >> no. i think it is patronizing to think people in hong kong did not know anything about democracy, about running their own affairs, about due process,

about their judicial system and so on. and that -- that we proposed those thoughts on that was ludicrous. people in hong kong are increasingly well-educated and prosperous. seeing what was happening in other places, taiwan, south korea, elsewhere in asia. stephen: i want you to reflect on what you remember most about that stormy night. i know that when you got on the boat, the britannia, you talked about feeling relief but also happiness. website hoped for the best. you could not believe anything but that. by and large part for some inverse clearance -- interference things went on reasonably well. the past few years are those things took a turn for the worst. but my overall feelings when i left hong kong were deep sadness at leaving friends and the place

where i had been happier than ever in my life and my family had been happier than ever in our lives. hong kong meant a huge amount to me. i was extremely lucky to have the opportunity of serving the people of hong kong. i will never forget how kinder they were to me. i will further -- never forget how good the civil servants were , full of decent hard-working people. the low community was like a rolls-royce edit should have been allowed to go purring away. haidi: chris patton, the last british governor of hong kong. student a bloomberg radio. get in-depth analysis from the daybreak team there. live from hong kong, listen from the app, bloomberg plus, or bloombergradio.com. there is plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg.

haidi: a check of the latest business flash headlines. reliance industries in talks with global banks to rage asthma says does raise as much as $8 billion. according to a report, reliance

is in talk with barclays, deutsche bank, agent bc and stanchart. reliance and global make an announcement. indonesia says foxconn is considering investing i did the country's new capital, a move that would bolster the $34 billion construction project. indonesian investors say the taiwanese company is looking at setting up an election bus system and in iot network. the chairman met with indonesian president on saturday. toshiba is expected to appoint representatives to its board at its annual meeting tuesday. the move is a step forward in governance. it may deep barren -- deep and divides in the boardroom with some executives opposing it.

soundboard group is reportedly considering a spinoff or sale of its banking unit. on sunday at cited sources saying san corp. -- suncorp has called partners to help with a strategic review. the report says preparations are well advanced and in the company plans to inform shareholders in early july. haidi: i am sure you have seen pictures of the northern territory, australia's outback. the landscape is like another planet. we have now seen nasa's first ever launch from a commercial site outside the u.s. blasting off from australia's outback in what is being called a historic moment from the countries -- for the countries space industry. this is the first of three planned launchers that carries technology likened to a mini

hubble telescope blasting 218 miles into the night sky. this is the first rocket to launch from australia since 1995. the prime minister called at the start of a new era for the space industry here. shery: i was surprised to hear about australia's space endeavors. you have a long history of cooperation with the u.s.. i did not know that you guys participated in the apollo 11 historic visit to the moon in 1969. we have a guest from the space agency coming up as well. that's it for daybreak australia. daybreak: asia is next. this is bloomberg.

as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network with no line activation fees or term contracts... saving you up to $500 a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

he