>> what the market is saying is you might hike now, but you're going to have to start cutting much sooner than in prior cycles. >> with the vendor raising interest rates, everybody is

expecting a recession. >> if we do have a recession is likely it would be on the shallower end. >> will see an overall level higher than we do from levels that are already high. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. thrilled you are us on a monday. jon ferro back from sabbatical. we will get out front and what we see of this final week of the second half looking at the earnings ballet. goldman sachs with a terse note. now we see his cell side theme adjust -- stowing adjustments. jonathan: let's get through that adjustment. goldman cutting a price target of target, lowe's, walmart, restoration hardware, off the

back, perhaps, of david costin's work when he said "declining consumer spending represents a threat to earnings for consumer discretionary stocks" and maybe that is what we have in store in the months ahead. tom: restoration hardware is a beleaguered company. i look at rh the challenge it has been as a business. they go from 308 as a target and it is taken down to where the stock is now. goldman sachs saying it is going nowhere. is this market going nowhere? jonathan: we have seen this inverse correlation between bond yields and equities. yields down, stocks up, but we have to get into the why. why were yields down so much, on the back of recession fears or the hopes that it is peter? mike wilson of morgan stanley

out in front saying there is earnings risk over the next few quarters. tom: it talks about quality. full faith and credit. everybody wants to buy it. i am sure it will go well. the quality issue -- yet here are selected retailers, goldman sachs saying they're going nowhere. maybe quality is the theme forward. lisa: core staples versus discretionary. how much will that be the driver? or how much is this a period when equities may suffer more than the underlying economy? 19 stuck out. -- one line stuck out. this has to do with margin pressure and it has to do with households that can sell the stocks to get benefits but might actually cushion them during the downturn.

tom: let's go to home depot, which is not restoration hardware. from a 356 down to 309. that is a good place to start the data check because equities follow on from the good feeling. goldman sachs going the other way. jonathan: building a last week, up .4%. the nasdaq up 62 points. yields higher by five basis points, pushing 3.20 on the 10 year. euro-dollar is where it is at. sitting around to hear from president lagarde, chariman powell, and governor bailey in portugal. cannot wait for that later this week. tom: stephen galy with the note out saying the bet is on the strong dollar. he is looking at a short squeeze on yen. brent crude $113.89.

lisa hornby with us with schroeder's head of u.s. multisector fixed income. do you hide in full faith and credit? lisa h.: you definitely want to have some of your risk allocated to pure u.s. treasuries right now. while me -- while we may have a technical bounce given how much things have underperformed in credit, i think the path of least resistance is tighter financial conditions. jonathan: what is the risk we still cannot realize? lisa h.: you guys were talking about the correlation between bond and equities and i think it is relevant. the market is gyrating between is it a recession story or an inflation problem? which do we have? i think the narrative full turn to it as a growth problem, we'll be heading into a u.s.

recession. it means bonds and equities, those can be unstable. i think you need a greater risk premium for riskier assets and credit would be a part of that. for us it is lower duration credit. i think the three to five year part of the credit market investment grade looks reasonably attractive with the breakevens. it is higher-quality, it is liquidity, and it is not taking a lot of risk because i do not think we are in a spread compression environment for the foreseeable future. jonathan: how much volatility do you think we have to tolerate through the summer? it is interesting how much the narrative changes on a single data point. when did we have to talk about university of michigan inflation expectations? when did that move the market

five basis points in either direction? when did it come to this? lisa h.: that is the problem. until the market can coalesce around when the risk rate belongs, how can we decide on a path for riskier assets? you need some stability in that rate forecast. i do not know how you want me to measure the volatility question. i think the answer is more volatility, continued volatility , until we get certainteed these inflation readings will trend downward. lisa: if someone were listening to this program they would've heard christian bitterly make the argument you do not want to be in cash. if you miss a couple days you miss 10% return. what is the argument against that in your quest for liquidity? lisa h.: it depends who you are managing money for and what

asset class you are managing what your targets are. at the end of the day we manage fixed income portfolios and these are meant to be the ballast, the sleep at night portfolios. we have a different risk budget and target than christian does, but you cannot have all liquidity, which is why i suggested decent portion of your exposure be allocated to high quality investment grade companies where you can earn 4.5% yield. over the next couple of years that will be a positive real return trade. it will take time to get there but i think we will be paid and rewarded for something like that and he gives is the opportunity to hide out and wait for better opportunities to emerge. lisa: you say liquidity, how much is your cash? lisa h.: pure cash is hard if you are managing relative portfolios.

you want at least a double-digit portion of treasury exposure across the curve. we manage double-digit returns. that means we want a high-quality liquidity overweight, whether it be treasuries, mortgages, some combination. cash is hard. if you have an applet return portfolio cash is a better option. jonathan: lisa hornby there of schroeder's. the sleep well portfolio of years ago has kept you up at night over the last few months. tom: while you were gone, this was a continued campaign of mine come in has nothing to do with lisa hornby's wonderful analysis , it is an industry analysis of how people are looking forward with higher coupons and not looking at the most crushing bear market, arguably in modern history.

you have to go back to the 19th century to see something like this. maybe i have to go back to 1947 or 1952. the bloomberg total return portfolio is down 12%. how do you make that up in the bond market? not by sleeping at night. jonathan: is the pain the scare we have seen in bonds alone or the fact we have seen it in bonds and equities together? tom: i think you have to look at them separately and they have their own story. witness the goldman gloom on the american consumer. in the bond space it is off of the massive fiscal impact of a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic. the fact is there is true for carmen fixed income portfolios that none of the pundits are talked about. how do you make up 12% or 18%? jonathan: you should see the

bramo cam right now. lisa: [laughter] how can you say yes? it has been painful. if you are managing fixed income due through the baby out with the bathwater? that is the argument. it is understandable. there are losses people need to claw back, whether assumptions for pensions, or insurance companies will face issues. however, this does present an opportunity. i take your point there is serious pain, and this idea it is not the safe instrument it was believed to be for so many years. that is something everybody would get on the same page on. jonathan: credit suisse convicted of failing to prevent money laundering by a bulgarian cocaine trafficker in the first ever criminal conviction of a major swiss lender in the

country's history. credit suisse will be fined 2 million swiss francs over the conviction. credit suisse will appeal the decision. $2 million. you choose .4%. i'll be staying out of that one. tom will be, too. 3.1960 on the 10 year. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. for the first time in a century, russia has default would on its foreign currency debt. that is a combination of western sanctions that shut down credit. the grace. of 120 billion interest payment expired sunday. given the damage to russia's economy, the default is mostly symbolic. the u.s. will provide ukraine

with an advanced missile defense system, eight medium to long range service air weapon. it is the same system the u.s. uses to protect the airspace around the white house and the capital. currently ukraine cannot down only a fraction of the missiles russia launches. a majority of americans disapprove of the u.s. supreme court decision overturning the right to an abortion. 59% oppose the ruling, including 67% of women, while 78% of republican support the supreme court action, 83% of democrats disapprove. shares of spirit airlines are lower. frontier airlines raised its offer, earning a recommendation from institutional shareholder services. shareholders will decide whether to accept the offer from frontier or a competing offer from jetblue. coming up, we will talk with the

ceo. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the frontloading of interest rate increases is a good idea because what you would like to do is nip inflation in the bud before it gets entrenched in the economy. get inflation back down towards 2%. jonathan: jim bullard at an event in the past week.

the next stop, july 27. july 13, cpi, on the 14th, earnings from jp morgan. futures positive .4%. the nasdaq 100 up 64 points. yields higher by 3.182% on the 10-year. wti, $108.17, up .5%. tom: down to 114 on brent crude. the vix does not play. 28 point 21 -- 28.21. we always adjusted good conversation with javier blas of bloomberg opinion but that barely describes his impact on the hydrocarbons worldwide. javier, i get out the old saudi chart and adjust for inflation. we are getting back to the

sustained higher prices we saw inflation-adjusted in the 1970's and 1980's. how important is the sustained price of being above $100 a barrel for a long time? javier: it is very important. sometimes we focus on the peak price in a crisis but we do not remember how long prices were over a particular level. right now the important thing for the global economy is how high oil prices go but how long they stay sustainable at $100, $120 a barrel. it is putting a lot of inflation into the system. beginning to see big industrial companies in europe, they have a few months of high prices. they thought this was similar to 2008, a big rally and then prices were coming down. they were not expecting sustained prices we have seen right now.

it is six months of high prices and nothing indicates the next six months are going to be anything but similar. tom: across europe, across united kingdom, energy prices bakken depending on the latitude and longitude. help us out. are they going to have enough energy when they get to the first frost to date? javier: i think if we have a full shutdown of russian gas supplies europe will struggle. i do not think ceos -- i think the ceos are getting more prepared when policymakers for what is coming. i do not think the policymakers have told the population how bad it could get if russia shuts down gas supplies to europe. it would not be enough gas and we have to decide what we are shutting down.

the whole economy cannot stay open if russia shut down gas supplies over the winter. lisa: we have been talking about this for months and the story has been similar. we are seeing a shift in the narrative. we have had two consecutive weeks of declines in oil prices, the first time we've seen that back to april. how much is this matched by something on the ground in terms of a pullback in demand? javier: when you look at the oil market, you look at the physical market, what you see is a market that is supertight with prices going up, with differentials climbing and climbing and price spreads going stronger. when you look at the futures market, it is pricing a scenario of recession and prices are coming down over the last two weeks. one of those markets is wrong -- either the physical market is misreading the demand side or the futures market is anticipating but having too much

of a recession. i think it is the physical market that is getting it right and prices in the futures market are just going to come up in the next few days. jonathan: i want to finish on something you touched on a couple of times. the difference between demand destruction and demand construction. the policy initiatives we have heard from many governments around the world seem to support demand and do not level with the public about what might be coming in europe. that seems to be a big issue for you. what you think they need to do right now? javier: i thought it was a very interesting opinion article by the three ceos of the largest french energy companies over the weekend and the french media. they urged demand savings and urged demand savings on energy right now, not over the winter. i would like to see european

policies and american policies making the same message. we need to save energy right now because in a worst-case scenario, with russia shutting down, we do not have enough natural gas and oil through the winter. the measures need to be taken now in summer. jonathan: hobby or blouse, thank you -- javier blas, thank you as always. lisa: how much has germany tried to get ahead of this by talking about potentially curtailing gas usage if storage levels drop below a certain level which they were talking about last week? how non-palatable is that message? can you imagine the united states if they say what you need to do is cut back on your vacation, drive a little less, maybe try to work from home. jonathan: i'm not sure how that message would play going into the midterms. tom: it will not play in america. i've seen some in the europe,

maybe in the you kate they are making fun of those comments, and i do not think -- maybe in the u.k. they are making fun of these comments. this is houston in scotland. how do you say that? jonathan: i am not sure where you mean. tom: it is the first frost date in the united kingdom in october. it is not tomorrow. what is your confidence that we get to winter in the united kingdom the energy will be there? jonathan: it is tougher the u.k. and europe. politically, it is not palatable. ultimately, what javier was pointing out is they have no choice. it is not a decision they get to make. to javier's point, he is saying they need to do something now while they can. lisa: it is also the point of

executives of the biggest energy companies. they are looking at the physical market, looking at demand, you are seeing that in the united states with the inventories getting eaten down into the winter. jonathan: equity futures up one third of 1%. building on the gains of last week. the nasdaq 100 up .5%. yields higher by a few basis points. i can see michael mckee out of the corner of my eye which means we have economic data up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ to get to tomorrow's opportunities. ( ♪♪ ) what can we expect in the coming year? this has been a record- shattering year for m&a. five trillion dollars in deal value.

and we're still very bullish on the deal market for 2022. in this kind of climate, what are you advising clients to focus on? we really think companies need to elevate their risk management processes and also scenario planning. what's your outlook, kim, for the 2022 labor market? organizations really do need to take a pivot on their lens of their people and talent from a cost center to make that a value creation center. for key insights into what matters today and what lies ahead for business, this is real time business with ey.

jonathan: economic data in america seconds away. michael mckee joining us in just a moment. futures positive .2%. with your economic data, let's get to michael mckee. michael: it is durable goods orders and these are may numbers so they are kind of important given the focus on whether or not the economy is slowing. durable goods up .7%, better

than last months .5% in much better than the .1% anticipated. take out transportation you're still up .7%. the focus was for a .3% rise. this is what we look at to see what is going into gdp. it is up .5%, better than the .4% the prior month and much better than the .2%. it looks like businesses are still spending, which is kind of interesting. in their latest statement the federal reserve suggested investment had slowed. capital goods shipments up .8%, matches last month in much better than the .2%. that suggests the gdp numbers will get better. one of the things we have been looking at is what is happening with second-quarter gdp. the fed thinks it will be reasonable and the consensus of economists is for 2.7%.

as of last friday the atlanta fed gdp now number was zero. the fed is in this position of are we slowing the economy fast enough? are we slowing it too fast? the trouble with having the data is it is backward looking and they do not know. jonathan: that is the major issue. equities fate a little bit. still positive .2% on the s&p. looking at the bond market, yields stay elevated. session highs on the two year pushing 3.20. how does this stack up against what we saw from the pmi last week in america and the ism we will see later this week? michael: this is made data. the problem is the pmi's are june data. if you're in the fed, how do you balance the two?

the pmi suggests we are slowing down in manufacturing, but the order numbers were strong in may. how does that translate intern's of how long it takes to go from orders to building something. jonathan: that is pretty decent data. although as mike pointed out it is from may. tom: i always think durable goods are the one mike singled out. i look at the three month moving averages and the three month moving averages are what you hear when you hear jerome powell say he started his testimony. jonathan: i still have seven or eight minutes with you. if you want to squeeze in the word sabbatical. is there a drinking game on the side? tom: the chief u.s. economist at

oxford economics joints me now. i am baffled by bullard and powell saying it a strong economy. as michael mckee just mentioned, atlanta gdp shows the world is coming to an end. why are we so polarized in our gas of gdp? kathleen: we are trying to digest what the federal reserve is telling us. what they are telling us is inflation is the number one priority. they feel we are at full employment. right now the economy is strong. the problem is as we go forward with more rate hikes and high inflation it will slope. the question is how much does it slow? how quickly and to what degree. in terms of second-quarter gdp, we are over 2%. we were higher. we were closer to 3%.

there were downward revisions in consumer spending. it is still a strong count for the second quarter? jonathan: how much of this will -- tom: how much of this will be imports rather than consumption? kathleen: we have seen both in tandem which makes sense. consumer is strong. we rely on imports, not just for the consumer. i think going forward with the consumer ship -- with the consumer slowing and the shift toward services, probably see some of the gains and imports low and even inventories may start to look more imbalanced as sales start to slow. lisa: based on the data we are seeing that show strength the u.s. economy, what is the biggest risk right now? the fed moves too aggressively and torpedoes growth in the short term leading to rogue --

leading to low growth or slower inflation, versus not going quickly enough and getting to the gym blurt risk of letting inflation become more entrenched? -- the jim bullard risk of letting inflation become more entrenched? kathleen: the federal reserve sees the risk of inflation becoming entrenched. i think that is where the risk is. inflation has proven to be much more persistent and elevated. they need to bring inflation down because it is not only a problem in the near term but could become a medium to long-term problem. can they call the labor market and spending enough we do not have a hard landing and a rough recession and at the same time bring down inflation and a lot of the supply chain issues there ? the remnants of the lockdown at the impulsive inflation going through the system, we do not know how that will ultimately play out.

our view is inflation will slow along with the economy. there is a pathway to escape a hard recession. lisa: the reason i ask is because the price action today is interesting. we are seeing the long end selloff with yields higher. i am wondering if there is a lack of conviction in the markets that the fed has the stomach to torpedo growth in be as aggressive as might be necessary in order to curtail inflation over the long term. do you think that is the big underpriced risk people are missing? kathleen: it is a great question and it is one of the problems we get from our clients, after are we going into a recession, the question is will the fed stay with their fight against inflation or will they say inflation is coming down, i making up a number, let's say

3.5%, is that going to be ok? the honest truth is we do not know. what we know based on their comments, they really do want, they have the backbone to bring down inflation. as we go forward, and what the market is wrestling with his did they want to push a hard landing if inflation is trending in the right direction? that will be the big question. tom: it is almost like there are two america's. to take the political ideas of john edwards and look at the trade balance where there are almost two economies -- there is a trade balance which is standard deviations away from where it ought to be normal. explain to our listeners and viewers how the trade balance recovers to normal in the coming quarters. i do not understand how that

process occurs. kathleen: what we started doing in the pandemic is the trade balance blew out a new record. consumer demand. we import a lot of strong consumer spending. alternatively the rest of the world is lagging behind. we think there will be rebalancing but it will take a long time. part of the problem is we have a strong dollar and that will not bode well for exports or profits. it could be this rebalancing takes a lot longer than we think. tom: i am fascinated by this and the sense we are talking about the adultness of quarters and quarters to normalize yet we are predicting a recession by 3:00 tomorrow afternoon. jonathan: there is not much

adult about it because we are pricing the next fed meeting off of a single piece which is a real deterioration in the conversation over last couple of months. jonathan: kathy, wonderful to catch up. i want to leave you with this thought from steven englander. as we build on the rally by .1% on the s&p. steven englander saying "if the fed does not see evidence inflation is turning it may not welcome on winds the financial conditions. this is the opposite of the fed put and suggest the fed may push back against equity market gains." in other words, a fed call, not a fed put. tom: i think there is a nud giness i have never seen. i saw steven englander's note. he is looking at it right now.

off the amalfi coast, that is what you pay. jonathan: what are the chances i will sit in the seat tomorrow morning? i may be back on the plane. in the next hour i will catch up with lisa shalett. tom: have you seen the cost? jonathan: flights are ridiculous. i booked my flight six months ago. tom: you talk about demand disruption. jonathan: how much disruption has there been? the next hour -- tom: you have another property. jonathan: the tides have gone for boris johnson -- the tie is gone for boris johnson, the jacket is gone too. lisa: with the threat of more. it is the whole thing about vladimir putin. dear lord. what is this? vladimir putin envy. jonathan: i have another hour to go.

the shirt is little tighter. lisa: oh boy. i feel like i should fix my hair. jonathan: the g7 look. unreal yield a couple of fridays ago. got really positive feedback, like do not do it again. lisa: i was about to say. [laughter] jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. a group of seven nations are expected to agree on exploring your price cap on russian oil. the goal is to limit a key source of revenue for vladimir putin for his war in ukraine. bloomberg has learned a potential mechanism would work by putting restrictions on insurance and shipping. one of the banking industry's new female ceos has landed a new job. she was co-ceo of first republic bank until january of this year. she told bloomberg she is now

moving to greystone, a privately owned real estate finance company. she sees the backdrop of rising interest rates and a slowing economy working in her favor. >> when their uncertain times and volatility in the markets like there is in the real estate market, a lot of the competitors go hot or cold. this is a great time for a financial organization with a strong financial position to stay warm in the market and be able to serve our client in good times and bad times and that leads to grabbing market share. uncertain times bring great opportunities in the real estate market is presenting one right now. ritika: more from our exclusive interview on bloomberg television and radio. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. biden: make no mistake. this decision is the culmination of a deliberate effort over decades to upset the balance of our law. it is the realization of extreme ideology and a tragic error by the supreme court in my view. tom: the nation galvanized. no other way to put it. lisa abramowicz and tom keene. jon ferro preparing for another property. i want to say congratulates to david shipley and tim o'brien, with the leadership of noah felt he of harvard, bloomberg was

informed about the raging debates around our supreme court. owning the high ground of on all of this is gregory's store. to say he is bloomberg supreme court reporter barely describes his authority. i want to drive the story forward. last week sandra lancaster versus illinois, adam martin versus klein warded, new york versus new jersey. i do not know what that is about. what are the orders and why did they merit -- and why they matter this morning? gregory: we will get a whole bunch at 9:30 today. this is the brain court saint we will take up that case or not take up that case and there are big ones they will be taking on. a big one affects the airline industry. the federal appeals court said the airlines had to comply with california's labor laws,

including meal and rest breaks for flight attendants. the airline industry is telling the supreme court you need to intervene because that will cost a ton of money and upend the industry. we also have big cases involving election law and new york's vaccine mandate for health care workers. tom: to the emotion of the moment, pro and con, can a single justice tilt the orders in a certain direction, and from a culture war standpoint that would be centered around justice thomas. greg: absolutely. he wrote the gun decision on thursday, seems like forever ago. before abortion there were guns. he is now in a position he has never been in before where he is the senior justice in the conservative wing of the court and gets to dictate who writes the opinions. he is the one that decided samuel alito would write the abortion decision.

he has been articulating theories for decades that are now becoming law. he is trying to push the court to go further. he wrote an opinion that said we need to go much further, we need to reconsider rulings involving contraceptives, involving gay marriage. not clear he has five votes but he is pushing the envelope. lisa: there are a lot of questions about the supreme court and the loss of confidence americans have with it. the hot button issues are polarized. the nuts and bolts of the courts are not that way and there are a lot of unanimous decisions and not as much ideological bifurcation. is that the same thing with this court when you point to the airlines and other business related cases? greg: i was talking to folks last week and they were referring to business cases as the place the port turns for relief from these ideological battles.

there is a decent amount of consensus. just not in the blockbuster cases that are causing the earth to shift the way the abortion ruling did. we will see more examples this week. there is a huge case involving the epa and its authority to combat climate change. the authorities suggest that will not be a consensus ruling, but we will see. lisa: do you buy to this argument there is the least credibility in this court there has been a long time? there have been alarming surveys and statistics. or is this run-of-the-mill disagreements with high-pressure social issues? greg: i would not say it is run-of-the-mill. the poll say the court is helping much lower standing than they have been since people have been taking polls about the supreme court. that is coming from a lot of different directions. for liberals the substance of the court rulings are alarming.

you also look back to the confirmation battles over the last few years, you look at the leak of the draft opinion in the abortion case, regardless of where it came from it did not do much for positive for the courts institutional standing that somebody is leaking that out. the court is taking hits from a lot of directions in a historic fashion. tom: greg stohr, thank you so much. leading all of our supreme court coverage in washington. there is one pending case, lisa, i do not know if you saw this. i am looking at the document from last week. it is ferro v. keene about reporting the dow jones industrial average. lisa: reporting from coney island while he was on the amalfi coast. tom: is a g7 show where lisa abramowicz is looking german alps. what a cushy place they get to

go to. jonathan: every time -- lisa: every time we have maria tadeo you start lobbying for road trip. tom: the road trips we are talking about are not nearly as romantic as that. lisa: i think the subject matter is not as romantic and they are facing catastrophic moments in trying to pull it together and come to some cohesion among a bifurcated time when it comes to economic outlooks. tom: 0.57 percent on the 10 year real yield. it has gone back a little bit and that hope to get normal rates. lisa: this goes to what kathy was saying and i think this is an incredibly important point. what is the bigger risk? the fed goes too far or does not go far enough and there is a protracted inflationary impulse?

that is the tension. when you talk about the real yields, that goes to this feeling the fed will not be aggressive enough because they're are worried about causing deep recession. that is the fear you are seeing play out on the margins this morning after the strong data for durable goods. tom: i will get out in front of where we will be in three and a half weeks, which is earnings season. goldman sachs with the markdown on retail. you wonder the excitement you will see as we get to the bank earnings three weeks or four weeks out. dow futures update. pre-much unchanged. this is bloomberg. good morning. ♪ >> welcome to a special update on tennis channel. two superstars will take center stage at the championship. rob vielma doll remains on course -- claiming his 14th

title. victory in london will add a 23rd major crown to his resume and extend his lead in the all-time list. on the women's side, serena williams returns to tennis after a year on the sidelines as she looks for her 24th major title and the breaker tied in the record books. look out for a potential blockbuster fourth round match up where serena williams could face cocoa golf. do not forget tennis channel daily coverage from across the pond starts at 4:30 eastern.

jonathan: let's get this trading week started. looking to build on the gains of last week with futures just about positive. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathan: we begin with the big issue. is it more than just a bear market rally? >> the market to rally another week or two. >> the fundamentals remain

strong. >>