>> next markets today. no real direction. inflation is still top of mind. bloomberg markets starts now. ♪ a little bit of red. dan about .3%. hopping between positive and negative territory all day long. the rebalancing liquidity, the july 4 holiday, there's a massive bull case but there

isn't a massive bear case either. the bond market as well. a six basis point move lower when it comes to yields. put that in context of the volatility we have seen. it is not the big of a move given the fed hawkish this we are seeing. you are seeing a stronger dollar. here's what is not moving. not necessarily moving commodities, although they were higher by almost 1% earlier in the session. now they are flat. the action is in the rest of the market. we will keep an ion that -- eye on that. francine lacqua talked to christine lagarde on a panel that included jay powell. >> i don't think we are going to go back. i think there are forces that have been unleashed as a result of the pandemic and this message

geopolitical shock we are facing now that i going to change the picture and the landscape with which we all operate. kriti: when we think about inflation we think about oil prices. people paying a lot of the pump. a lot of it has to do with food prices and how much people are paying at the grocery store that matters. let's bring in an expert to talk about it. arthur and cousins. -- she's in charge the last time food prices were this high. she was the u.s. ambassador to the u.n. agency food for agriculture. who better to ask about these challenges we have to talk about this inflationary backdrop. food prices were already on the rise. how much of this is a legacy of the covid-19 pandemic? ertharin: thank you for recognizing this is a crisis exacerbated by the russian

invasion into ukraine. it had already begun as a result of covid. also as a result of the impact of climate on the droughts in the eastern africa and the united states, and the effects on supply chains and the high prices of fuel for the movement of food, both globally as well as regionally. all those factors had already begun to increase the cost of food both domestically and internationally. the russian invasion in ukraine exacerbated that. not just for those in the countries directly import from ukraine and russia but also for the entire global community. kriti: i'm curious about what you do in a situation like this. you were in charge the last time

we saw this massive increase in prices. the ripple effects went around the world, even contribute to the arab spring. in that kind of situation how much can you do when it comes to bringing prices back down? ertharin: there's a significant about you can do. you must ensure we provide humanitarian assistance necessary for those who can no longer access food across the globe. i must applaud the g7 for the additional $4.5 billion they committed to supporting humanitarian response. we need to remember medium-term begins now. that means investing in farmers access to the supplies necessary for them to plant to ensure the harvest of the local level are able to fill the gaps in the

global food system that is now created by the geopolitical situation. kriti: stick with us for a second. i went to put this in the context when it comes into price action. let's go to abigail doolittle. walk us through whhat -- what we have seen with food prices? abigail: you are both talking about food prices up 10% over the last year. if we break it down to the individual commodities, huge surges. corn up 22%. soybeans up about 60%. this comes after big gains last year. over the last year we'd is up more than 43% -- wheat is up more than 43%. there is one commodity, but thankfully for me, coffee up just 1.7% this year. as for how this compares to the commodities surge, on the top

panel a look at the commodities spot index. since the march lows of 2020, pop 100% -- up 100%. industrial metals, energy and food in the bottom panel. they are both off the highs. you can see both energy and food costs, the agricultural costs really sharply higher, contribute into inflation you're talking about. kriti: abigail doolittle, thank you was always. let's bring back in ertharin cousin. the fuel cost as well. the trade routes that come in handy. we are talking about this magnification of this pain and food prices because of the war in ukraine. how much of that is perhaps changing where you are going to get your food around the world? a lot of the ukrainian ports are

shut down. talk about the changes in the globalization or food systems around the world we could start to see? ertharin: what you need to remember is that, yes, there are a dozen countries with a certificate proportion of imports for food, for wheat and essential oils come from russia and ukraine. that includes east africa and the middle east and seven west africa. far away, asia. what happens when you take 30% of the commodities out of global food systems, it increases the price of food for the entire global food system. you have less commodities there, rising prices occur. when you begin magnify that challenge with the increase in

fuel prices for the movement of the food, what it requires is more regional production of food. more local production of food in order to substitute for the higher priced global food costs. the challenge is those commodities just listed, w heat, price, corn, that's about 60% of the calories consumed globally. what we are going to begin to see is substitutions of food, more locally produced foods in sub-saharan africa. there's work to increase sorghum in the united states. barley and other grains can substitute for those commodities

in short supply. the effects of higher prices are creating more food insecurity in the system as we speak, and making more -- making those vulnerable to food insecurity, as the president and executive director says, on the verge of hunger. putting them in a more challenging position for accessing food right now. the fear is our inability to invest today while result in not just inaccessibility but an availability problem. kriti: the idea of if you have a food security issue in countries around the world, to create

these exports, the countries that were supposed to make of that lost supply the countries that are really locking down. is this the start of worldwide protectionism when it comes to food? ertharin: this is what we need to avoid. some said this is the end of the global food cycle. the reality is that you don't walk back from globalization. we have an opportunity. globalization is provided the most efficient food system we have ever experienced as a global community. what we need to do is ensure we do provide the incentives necessary and support required so countries like india that at the beginning of this crisis did indeed increase the amount of food they released into the global food system. unfortunately, because of

climate, they are now experiencing record highs affecting their own production capacity with the rejection of a reduction of somewhere around 30% in the next harvest. now india has limited the event of food the are exporting. in each of what we are seeing, a country depended upon exports -- imports, they are limiting their exports supplies. when countries take this type of action to protect their own populations they hurt their own small local farmers because of price, as well as hurt net importing countries. particularly during times when many of those countries are in fiscal stress as a result of covid responses. kriti: that farming story is where we are going next. ertharin cousin is staying with us because we have more to impact. let's go to first word news with mark crumpton. mark: nato leaders are preparing

to overhaul and boost the alliance's defenses in the face of the russian aggression in europe. they were to establish a new role model that would put about 300,000 troops on high alert. president biden says the u.s. will set up a permanent headquarters in poland for the fifth army corps. nato leaders are meeting in madrid. u.s. national security council core nader john kirby says there is a reason russian president pute -- putin should view this as a provocation. >> nato will always be a defensive alliance. the reason we have to do this is because mr. putin has been the destabilizing influence on the continent. he decided to invade a neighboring state. he's the one who was the

aggressor. mark: mr. kirby said the united states is working hard to get turkiye advanced air defense capabilities. the european union is effectively heralding the end of the era of internal combustion engines. eu members have endorsed the push to eliminate carbon emissions from new cars by 2035. environment ministers struck a deal after italy, the home of ferrari and lamborghini gave a demands for a five-year delay. now to a bloomberg scoop. democrats are working on shrinking the tax increases in president biden's economic package. it is said to be part of a bid to cut a deal with senator joe manchin and get it passed in the coming weeks. the changes into consideration when pair down some of the tax measures passed by the house last year. that could mean both corporations and wealthy households end up facing smaller tax hikes.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." we discussing level inflation. u.s. farmers battling floods, heat in a bid to replenish food supplies. let's dig in with jen. thank you for joining us. there are challenges for farmers now. it is not easy to grow food. can you walk us through those issues? jen: you touched on a couple of

important ones. we have seen the weather be a big issue this spring. parts of the u.s. growing areas are dealing with flooding, excess moisture. others are dealing with heat and drought. every bushel matters this year. supplies out of russia and ukraine are in certain. there has been a lot of challenges in terms of getting that crop in the ground. also prices. things like fertilizer are expensive for farmers. they are in a big squeeze. kriti: that context so crucial. thank you as always. we will bring back in ertharin cousin who has experienced in this kind of story. united states is a massive exporter of grain. why is it not that simple to simply plant more, grow more, export more and solve this food price problem when farming

is subsidized so aggressively by the federal government? ertharin: the way you state it you make it sound simple but it's anything but. the reality is our global food system is quite complex. yes, u.s. is a significant exporter of grains. so is russia. so is ukraine. they have an effect on what is available in the global market. he spoke a bit about fertilizer. we need to recognize that one out of every two people depends on agricultural products that use fertilizers. higher energy costs and higher nutrient costs have escalated the cost of fertilizers here in the united states and abroad. affecting production across the globe. kriti: 30 seconds, how long do

you think this food crisis can last? years, months? ertharin: it depends upon what we do. if we take action that is necessary to support what i call preinterview military an -- preemptive committed to arianism -- humanitarianism. if we invest in their ability to produce and fill the gaps in the global food chain to avoid an availability crisis, we can see a situation that at the end of 2022 we could see light at the end of the tunnel. our failure to invest in domestic production increases and the international support necessary to those smallholders will move this from an access problem to an availability problem. an availability problem that

will increase the number of people. some suggested 100 million more people. increasing cost of food here at home as well. kriti: that's a story we will keep our eye on as we navigate the pressures around the world. ertharin cousin, always a pleasure. thank you for joining us. looking forward to having her back on. we will dive into the covid resilience ranking and where the best and worst places are to be is the real interest in the covid phase. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." covid resilience ranking uses a range of data points to capture a snapshot of how the world's biggest economies are handling this once in a generation health crisis. china has uniquely handled the

pandemic as the president vows to stick with the covid zero policy. let's bring in an associate professor of epidemiology at the johns hopkins huber school of public health. always a pleasure to have you join us. in the last week we have seen some interesting developments. the idea of shortening the quarantine period for china for the markets. that makes a massive difference in terms of people going in and exports getting out. i'm curious why they made the change. >> there following the science. we sat with omicron is the incubation period is shorter from the initial estimates of five to six days. now it is two to three days. what china has done is reduced the quarantine from 21 days down

to seven days a quarantine. that's upon entering into the country. there's an additional three days that would take place after leaving the facility after seven days. it's still a big ask and still exceeding what we know to be the median duration between exposure and symptom onset. kriti: this was a policy that did not look like it would abate anytime soon. very proud of the fact that of all the deaths they have prevented, it's been a reason to keep the policy going. what happened in the case of another variant, one work contagious and omicron. does the quarantine period extend longer and do we go backward? keri: it is likely we will continue to track these incubation periods because they are important what we see something become a bit more contagious. usually an indication of the good patient period is shortening in the virus is spreading faster. if we have another variant that

continues to be even more infectious and spreads faster, there may need to be more changes. china could rebound a little bit if they do see cases rise and see deaths increase. although china can deftly take credit for changing so many lives, one thing they have not published is there excess deaths. that's an indicator of understanding not just directly from covid and covid related deaths but when you're in lockdown you may not be seeking the care you need or if you seek care, the hospitals are overrun, individuals may not receive the care they need. we still don't really know with the picture is in china. kriti: i want to ask about the asymptomatic cases and how they are going about counting these cases in their testing

methodology. keri: in china, and we should make note although we saw this federal policy there are provinces with different policies. if you're traveling in china, know what you're going and where the policies may be changing. he prepared for changes in terms of case numbers. one thing to recognize with these changes and the shortening of the good patient period is individuals are tested every 48 to 72 hours. your availability to move around freely in public spaces is dependent upon that. kriti: keri, giving us context around the china story. the school is supported by michael bloomberg, the founder of bloomberg lp and this network. jay powell's promised. the outlook for a soft landing with michelle meyer.

it's interesting to talk about this in the context of this inflation story. francine lacqua. how hawkish is to hawkish? we will break it all down. this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: welcome to the bnn bloomberg audience. i am mark crumpton with first word news. nato declared russia the "most significant and direct threat" to the security of the alliance members. the alliance today vowed to strengthen support for ukraine, even as that country's leader criticized the alliance for not doing more to help defeat moscow. turkey's president met with president biden today and was set to push for the purchase of new f-16 warplanes.

the two are attending the summit in madrid. president erdogan is seeking to capitalize on a relatively positive atmosphere in relations with nato and the united states. ties had grown cold after turkey brought advanced russian air defense systems -- bought advanced russian air defense systems. the biden administration is being sued to allow new oil drilling a public land in western states. president biden halted the relief sales a month after taking office. a judge later invalidated the moratorium, and in april, the administration announced plans for new lease sales. justice stephen breyer informed president biden he will retire at noon on thursday. justice breyer announced his move earlier this year. the courts' soon to be newest member, ketanji brown jackson,

apparently hired law clerks for her first time on the bench. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. jon: i am jon erlichman. welcome to "bloomberg markets." >> i am kriti gupta. the volatility today as showing up. muted session but it is the last week of the month, last week of the quarter. a lot of this will be rebounds. s&p 500 down 4/10 of 1%. a live action in the bond market but not think of a move. the dollar is up 4/10 of 1%.

the commodities story on the surface is flat but if you look at that from a 1% gain this morning, you see volatility looks to be there. not much for stocks. tell me something more exciting is happening underneath the hood. >> i think one of the trends we are starting to see is that analysts are not waiting for negative news. they are laying out the scenarios and showing more of a willingness to be aggressive. carnival selloff today sizable after morgan stanley raised concerns on what would happen if there was another demand shock. peloton, ubs with cautious comments on the user realities. with the economic uncertainty when you have got companies like bed, bath & beyond that come out with challenged sales, perhaps analysts feel justified. ahead of numbers you had seen analysts sharing cautious views. you have the likes of general mills that have had positive

numbers, able to price some items higher, deal with the supply chain. but not all companies are in a position to do that. kriti: that uncertainty has a lot to do with the "i" word, inflation, and the "r" of recession. christine lagarde was speaking on how maintaining those the u.s. can avoid inflation. >> while still maintaining a strong labor market, we can do that. there is no guarantee we can do that, it is something that is going to be quite challenging and i would also say the events of the last few months have made it more challenging. jon: let's get some more perspective on those comments. michelle meyer, chief economic director of mastercard. it seems chair powell wanted to stay with the narrative that

would be supportive of more interest rate hikes. but he talked about the pathways through which those rates can rise and the economy can avoid a worst-case scenario. can you walk us through those pathways from your vantage point and what is in store? michelle: sure. i thought the panel discussion today was great. all the central bankers together talking about these same issues which is they want to fight inflation, but they want to do so without compromising the real economy. without impairing the labor market and without pushing the economy into recession. there is a few dynamics at play. one the chair powell spent time talking about was this rebalancing between demand and supply. the hope is that the fed, the central banks, can cool down demand, but at the same time supply will come back.

where you can get this balance, you can have this stable inflation environment. chair powell noted as christine lagarde noted, it is a fair amount of luck. they do not know when they will get that balance. they do not know how much they need to do in terms of monetary policy. they are going to figure it out as they see the data evolve. as they see that transmission through the markets as well. kriti: michelle, comment that interested me was when christine lagarde said, we are not going back to what used to be the normal of the last two decades. i have to bring that to the point you are making about the supply chain issues. the assumption baked into this is ultimately they will heal. but we are looking at a time of deglobalization, protectionism when it comes to the food supply. can we go back to "normal" at all? michelle: we do not know what normal is and i think they were

trying -- they were underscoring that. we have had significant changes since the pandemic ended questions how much we progress in terms of globalization. these global supply chains ended up being more fragile. we have seen some onshore, we have seen localization and christine lagarde said, is it going to be the case you manufacture where you sell and you sell where you many fracture? if that is the case, that means you are not going to have as much inflationary pressure. but you will also not have as much port activity. what is the long run environment looking like? how has the world fundamentally changed as a result of the pandemic? what does that mean for how we will arrive at this steady-state for inflation and for potential growth? to me it is still too early.

there is a lot of -- a lot has happened the last few years. a lot has happened in terms of embracing globalization, but we still have a long road ahead. jon: i want to circle back on the labor market which was brought up today as one of those justifications for being able to push rates higher. the question is, what happens when we start to see weakness? you have been watching that closely. michelle: we all are. at the end of the day, what happens in the jobs market will inform overall consumer spending, an indication of the health of the business community. the data so far has shown the labor market is strong. if you look at the high-frequency jobless claims number, which will give you a proxy for layoff, it remains at low levels. certain industries are announcing they are cutting

their workforce. those related to the housing market, those in more of the parts of the economy that have had those deflate. but broadly speaking there is not much evidence in these high-frequency data points that there are large-scale cuts in the workforce. the first step would see removal of job openings. perhaps you start to see slowdown of job creation. that would actually be a good thing, and getting to this normal equilibrium for the economy. obviously more worrisome would be if you see large-scale layoffs which is not happening at the moment. kriti: michelle meyer, fascinating stuff. chief economist at mastercard. always a pleasure to have on our show. coming up, fizzing financial is playing with the big banks.

we will speak to bruce van saun on supporting new york's workforce. this is bloomberg. ♪ (inspiring music) - [narrator] at southern new hampshire university, you can reach your goals faster. that's because you can transfer in up to 90 credits towards your online degree. - i was able to cut my time in half. - [narrator] apply free at snhu.edu

kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." i am kriti gupta with jon erlichman. citizens has been growing business but not only physically, it is diversifying as well. joining us is citizens financial

chairman ceo bruce van saun. thank you for joining us. you are growing very quickly at a time and a lot of people are calling for inflation, a decline in spending, recession. is your bank really prepared for those risks? bruce: i think so. we went after a couple of smart acquisitions last year. some more to build our commercial bank and capital markets capability. the other play was to get into the new york metro region which was a gap in our footprint. we had new england covered, mid-atlantic covered, but had that hole. we now have 200 branches in new york. we are excited by what we think we can do. jon: bruce, i am in toronto and a lot of the canadian banks has been acquisition hungry in many of the same regions. as people are hearing about this

expansion you have been embarking on at a time when there are questions around the economy, if you were to continue down that path, what would give you confidence when everyone is reading headlines that are pretty concerning? bruce: i think it is important to note this year we are really focused on integrating what we did last year. i do think you are going to see banks really focus on making sure they have a strong balance sheets, strong liquidity and funding position as the fed embarks on q2. we had come out of the pandemic and shifted from defense to offense. last year was the year of offense. we are now more equivocal. we have to think defense but think about integrating what we did and make sure we launch those things off to a good start. that is the playbook for this year. kriti: speaking of launching things, you build out your capital markets operation quite aggressively at a time when

investment banking was falling off the cliff. you started to see volume deal dry up. do you think the deals you did not put out were well-timed? bruce: yeah. what is interesting is we have relatively good diversification across the customer base. we do a lot of work with sponsors and corporate. we invested in building up verticals around some growth areas, like health care, which are pretty resilient and also data and digital infrastructure companies through the dh capital acquisition. we have enough diversification our revenue outlook should stay reasonably stable. it will not be at the highs we had last year, but right now, there are good levels of activity in m&a, in the loan markets. not as much of the public debt markets and the equity market, that has fallen off. but that is relatively small of the overall business we do. kriti: where is the pain points? there has to be some. you are hearing this across

banks. they are concerned about this undeniable slow down in the economy. where is it hurting for you? bruce: i think the thing to watch is the inflation and the impact that has across the economy and across the customer base. particularly the lower end of the economic spectrum is most impacted, therefore, they are spending more on food, more and filling up their cars with gas. that is really biting. we tend to focus more on affluent customers and borrowers. will not be as big an impact, but we want to make sure those folks are able to get through and give them good advice. the fed are really bringing down inflation and i think that will be to the benefit of the economy and the citizens of the country who are kind of starting to suffer a little bit from higher prices. jon: to that point, in the local

area of new york you are trying to allow for some workforce development for those people who want to move beyond a lateral job opportunity. do you think if things cool off for the economy, that is still possible? bruce: i think, you know, you have to look at the fact unemployment is at 3.6%. even with rates going up most forecasters say it might head into 4%, 4.1%. when we survey our customers they are still constrained in their business models by having a lack of skilled talent. that is the number one thing, if they could get more of that, they could grow faster and be more successful. it is a great opportunity in a tight labor market to bring people from less represented groups into the economic ladder and give them the skills they need they can

have good careers and make good income. we have already been down to chinatown and we are going through a series of neighborhoods to convene community partners, talk about the needs in those neighborhoods, and make grants and work with partners who can help small businesses to grow and become more digital and be more successful. and to help individuals upscale themselves so they can take advantage of the opportunities that are in the market. i think companies are also looking beyond college degrees. they are looking for underrepresented people who are smart and hard-working and, with the right training, can get the skills to unlock new economic opportunities. jon: really quickly before we go. you talked about last year being an opportunity to play offense. in the banking industry, the ability to provision less, to set aside less money for potentially bad loans, was one of the themes.

as we watch this uncertainty on the economic front is that going to impact your own credit provisioning? bruce: what's interesting is if you listen to the banks talk, like us, we are in the best of times in terms of credit. the consumer is in good shape. there is no migration through delinquency buckets that concern us. corporations are in great shape. we really have continuing decline in problem credits. we kind of looked forward and say, it is hard to see even if the economy slows, we are going to end up with credit issues and higher provisioning. the market is not saying that. bank stocks are trading off dramatically from their highs in february. we will see how it plays out. is mr. market right? or the bank management teams who feel we are in good shape, the economy is on more solid footing than people worry about?

therefore, this should be -- the banks are oversold and that should be a good year for banks over the second half of the year. jon: we will see how it plays out. thank you for your time. bruce van saun, chairman and ceo of citizens financial. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: spanish inflation unexpectedly surged rising 10%. the data as the ecb gears up to raise interest rates for the first time in more than a decade. earlier today at the central banks forum in portugal, francine lacqua mala rated a panel that included christine lagarde and fed chair jay powell. they talked about the challenges facing the global economy. >> if what we see, for example, is redivision of the world into competing geopolitical and economic camps and reversal of

globalization, that certainly sounds like lower productivity and growth in many parts of the side of that aging demographic. a shrinking workforce and economies growing more slowly and whose workforces are not expanding. that is certainly a possible outcome. i think to some extent a likely outcome. >> and in the short term? can the economy deal with the interest rate hikes? >> the u.s. economy is in strong shape. if you look back a year, the u.s. economy grew more than 5.5%. it was the big reopening year. we had expected this year that growth would moderate to a more sustainable path. we are also rating interest rates and the aim is just low interest rates so supply can catch up. we hope growth can remain positive.

households are in strong financial shape. they still have excess savings from not being able to travel and fiscal transfers. households -- not every household and not the ones at the lower end of the spectrum -- but overall, the same is true businesses. very low rates of default. lots of cash on the balance sheet. the labor market is tremendously strong and averaging very high job growth per month. overall, the u.s. economy is well-positioned to withstand monetary policy. >> is it automatically a trade-off between fighting inflation or taking care of the economy? how far are you willing to go with interest rate hikes? >> i will say it this way. our aim is to have growth moderate. it is a necessary adjustment that needs to happen so that supply can catch up. it could be workers, it could be

time for the supply chains to improve. the sense of that is supply and demand are out of balance in many parts of the u.s. economy. we need to get them better in balance so inflation can come down. that is the aim of what we are doing. we do not have precision tools. monetary policy is a very blunt tool. we think there are pathways for us to achieve the path back to 2% inflation while retaining and sustaining a strong labor market. that is our aim. there is no guarantee we can do that. it is something that is going to be quite challenging and i would also say the events of the last few months have made it significantly more challenging, particularly the war in ukraine which is added tremendously to inflationary pressures around food and chemicals and energy. it has gotten harder, the pathways narrower.

jon: fed chair jay powell speaking at the ecb's annual forum in portugal. the markets reacting to that. i am jon erlichman for kriti gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

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mark: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, hears the first word. i am mark crumpton. nato leaders are working on overhauling the alliance's defenses in the face of the russian aggression in europe. they want to establish a new force model that would put 300,000 troops on high alert. nato leaders are now meeting in madrid. japanese prime minister called for a significant upgrade for his country's ties with nato as he becomes the first japanese premier to attend the summit.