>> fighting and inflation and winning this battle is most important. >> where looking at a mild recession starting mid 2023. >> is a risk of recession that goes hard and fast. >> even with this fear, it is a tricky spot. we are way above target. >> impacting consumers are necessities, shelter, food and inflation. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: a messy first half,

from new york city this morning, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. futures down at 1.2% on the s&p. what about q2? tom: an ugly q2, knowing focused on off of the panel yesterday with francine lacqua, madame lagarde giving a focal point of a one or 4.29 -- 104.9 -- 104.29 euro. jonathan: they want to take on inflation, that is the objective and they hope they don't take down growth. but the goal is to get inflation down. the hope is we don't get negative growth and that message was loud and clear yesterday. tom: growth is on and the messages to lie, like 15 or 16,

jp morgan, but we will see coming off the thursday claims is a recalibration by the sell side of where o-rings --earnings are there to be. jonathan: we talk about it, the junk, 1000 basis points. it is getting messy. lisa: the first time going back since 2020, persistent messiness is catching people's attention. people are talking but the value in credit spreads, the value in credit if we are not going to see default. no one is talking that value as much as the recession and the fact that central bankers are willing to send the economy into recession to get inflation. jonathan: that is the difference this time and how yields close to 550. close to december 2018, but we

know what happened. the fed is not going to back away. lisa: especially because these avenues are not struggling. no one is saying there will be a credit crisis in the near term. the crisis is inflation. the risk is inflation comes on board. that is what central bankers said yesterday, the message this week and markets will take that message. jonathan: markets have been pretty well aligned where we are going. tom: i think that is true. what he underscored yesterday is there are extreme data dependency and it comes with important economic data today. here in the opening, you have pcs and we are going to look at the savings rates, personal income, personal spending. how flat on their back is the american consumer? we will know this morning. jonathan: i spoke to lisa for too long this morning, just

brought down. lisa: hold on. literally everybody is talking about recession. jonathan: they know the rules. that nasdaq 100 pound down -- down by one was its percent. yields coming in. this is where things get interesting. bonds behaving like bonds, yields down by three basis points, about 3.05% on the 10 year. lisa: you can blame me for being somewhat down and beat in terms of the investment. even the biggest market polls are getting bearish. i pointed neil over there, seeing a greater probability of recession. yesterday he was talking about being more bearish on this market. a big part of the story is oil.

opec-plus holding a meeting on output, 14 minutes, maybe 13. they will have an increase, we will get some sense of what they can provide to offset demand. what that might be coming online and what effect looks like considering concerns about the recession. we were talking by u.s. personal income, personal spending through the month of may and jobless claims. i'm wondering whether research is a jobless claims pickup. the troughs in jobless claims and there's this question, how much can consumers keep spending when they are eating into the savings rate, bring you down to the lowest going back to 2008? this is interesting. looking at each corporate story as a tea leaf, micron technology reporting earnings after the bell. how much do we get a sense of this risk, the chip shortage? how much companies were hoarding

ships during the pandemic and the aftermath, leading to a lack of demand. how much do we get a sense of how much the supply chain disruptions are using? jonathan: did you see restoration hardware? to hear from these companies, you hear from them one month ago and they say how bad things might be and they come a month later and it's even worse. that is worrying. moving the quickly. tom: this week we saw the markdown from goldman sachs and many others in retail. but you reviewed bed, bath & beyond yesterday, basically a decade old train wreck. you wonder what the margin dynamic is at home depot, radically different than restoration hardware. jonathan: big story, joining us is the chief investment officer at a bank and trust. if you months ago we talked to david of jp morgan private bank adhesive bonds are back. our bonds back? -- are bonds back?

>> yes, it is elected fashion. where look best we are less scared -- in a selected fashion. we are highlighting the risks now. the fed and other central banks are waiting on a recession and the levels priced and are doing that. if you are less afraid of duration, we can start being more constructive on the bond market. the risk that recession introduces his credit risk so you have been very selective. but it does actually paid to be selective. there are high single digits, total returns, annual returns available if you are picking companies and bankruptcy in the next year. tom: it's if we are not in cash, if we need to be in the equity

market, which sectors make the most sense? hugo: that is tricky, tom. we have been overweight in the energy sector the last couple of years, but in the last few weeks we have been trimming that because the level of demand destruction is coming through and accelerating. people talk about $120 oil but it is five dollar gas. it is thin on top of that. they are adding to the price at which we find out whether -- where there is demand destruction. we selected in the long term the fear of duration, you can start looking at defensive names from utilities and some stables in there, too. the dollar has still been great

so that is another area we are interested in. but there are not a lot of places to hide its when equities in times of stress become a cash machine. there may liquid at all times. all equities are problematic. lisa: it is problematic, but one line of thought earlier in the year was that big tech companies would ask in tandem with debt markets, they with yields. why is that broken down and when will that reassert itself if we start to see a rally in bonds? hugo: an excellent question, right on the money. we have had pains to say that local tech is created equal. there is a lot of tech with large cash on the balance sheet that generates a lot of free cash flows, very high barriers of entry and we would suggest some of those guys have bonds like quality is. some of those guys will have

that duration and defensive characteristics. but there is text search for example -- a tech search for example, some social media, guys who are cyclical and depend on consumer spending. and then there the fed we have hated for ages, we have been avoiding it completely. this cash burning category, where they rely on burning cash in order to grow. this they have just described three different components and you need to treat each different in the market. jonathan: a difficult moment. great to get your thoughts. hugo rogers of deltec bank and trust. if yields are falling but not because the fed is backing off, in fact because the fed is not backing off, they will keep falling. how will that influence the relationship between bonds and equities in which part of the equity market is going to benefit mark lisa: --

benefit? lisa: i'm not sure. those are some of the more expensive names of the market, so given the relative valuation, where do you hike tom's question my especially given the devastation in retail because of the dynamic -- excuse me, i will get my words out. it is a thursday and thursday. jonathan: where 10 minutes and. -- we are 10 minutes in. tom: it's a bear market, no question about it, but between the dow jones and the nasdaq there is the profitability. i wonder what it would be if you took up a cash flow share buyback? i bet it would be -40 or -45%. jonathan: we are down 1.7% on

the nasdaq 100, call it what .6. yields at three basis points, 10.05. i love you. lisa: thanks. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, the chinese prime minister traveling outside of china for the first time in 100 days. this is part of the sweeping security abating in 2020. he is marking the 20th anniversary of jenny's will in the former french colony. reacting to the nato decision to admit finland and sweden, they're welcome to join. the russian president said nato and nordic nations are different compared to allowing ukraine to join.

pugin also says if nato faces -- put in also designate of faces best, russia will have to respond. they must choose between former president trump and the constitution, they cannot be loyal to both. cheney called him a threat they've never seen before, she is vice chair of the committee investigating the attack on the capital. increasing the package, part of a deal with senator joe manchin to get this passed. they're facing smaller tax hikes. suspected north korean hackers believed to be hind the $100 million heist on the california blockchain, harmony. a group known as the lazarus group, workers in the asian

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>> is there a risk we would go too far? certainly there is a risk.

but i would not agree it is the biggest risk to the economy. the biggest mistake to make, let us put it that way, would be to fail to have price stability. jonathan: if you think we are in the clear, you have not been listening. that was chair powell of the federal reserve. new york city, but morning. tutors positive 1.3%, nasdaq 100 down across the board. three point 0537% -- 3.0537%. russia confirmed it would -- in the black sea, the decision would facilitate grain exports from ukraine. that sounds like good news but we want follow-through and positive outcomes. tom: from julie yesterday, this is out of odessa in the west toward romania. on through the mediterranean and

maybe tunisia and egypt as an example. i know eric martin is focused on egypt. we are focused on the president of the united states. he will speak in madrid, maria tadeo in madrid. let's begin with you. what are you listening for from president biden? >> tom, the president will want to make sure he talks about this historic win and how he from the beginning. a month ago we were in the rose garden with him and the leaders of finland and sweden. he has been working to make sure they had a clear path to join nato. at the same time, this press conference i imagine is going to be overshadowed on what is going on at home. you're talking about what jay powell said, it is about inflation. a fresh call to the president, many think he is not handling

the economy well and the state of affairs is not good in america, including eight in 10 immigrants. that got my attention this morning. tom: maria, i found extraordinary the immediacy of the war from christine lagarde yesterday in ms. for americans is different and for christie lagarde it is not as well. what you the leaders want out of the two sets of meetings you have covered in the last week? maria: they wanted a real commitment from nato to deploy

troops in eastern europe. when you look at the language that came out from the statement, it sets the agenda for the last 10 years. they got the clarity, the all text and what they wanted. russia is not a friend or partner, it is a country that can be dangerous in the future for them. it comes to the economy, there also right. for the europeans, this feels personal. it is about the traits, brushed trades, great has been disrupted. they will move away from the pullback as a gesture of goodwill they moved away from the capital because it was well protected by the ukrainians. it was a defeat. when it comes to inflation, another big talker in europe, inflation is 10%, difficult to stomach. but the europeans, difficult to separate, the security from the politics and the economy. lisa: when you talk about resolutions coming out of nato and the summit, marie, did they jump the gun with respect to turkey and its allowance of finland and sweden to come into nato, or is there another policy resolution that will come out that perhaps will be a bigger headline? lisa: -- >> no, this is the headline.

we had the leader of italy leave because they had to discuss energy issues. inflation, energy bills, grocery bills are the main concern. the issues these leaders have is to make sure they can maintain unity while dealing with domestic problems that have been exacerbated by what we are seeing in ukraine. it is a great question because they have jumped the gun of the summit. the headline came out right at the start and that is what this meeting was about. to make sure there was the trilateral dialogue and an understanding between finland, sweden and turkey. that these nordic countries could join nato. president pugin on his trip outside russia since the war began is talking about that. he says it is their decision to join. they're going to have army or military capabilities in the countries, a different circumstance. obviously he is concerned about

leningrad on the baltic sea. but this is the main headline. all of the countries have to go to their own parliaments and get signoff. it is not a done deal but the path is there. lisa: to that exact point, they have to go home and the issue at home is more serious than it has been for a long time in terms of challenges. his nato more or less of a priority given the threat of russia, perhaps the strategic challenge of china, but also the strategic challenge of what is going on at home for each of these leaders? >> yeah, and to be fair, three years ago nato was described by the french president as brain-dead. it lacked vision and there was no clear purpose. press trump -- president trump at the time also said they would not come if they attacked. but to me you struck the main

point. yesterday, draghi was on the phone, not paying attention to nato. back home i was struck, this the first time i have not seen or heard anything from the french president. usually he likes to take center stage. that was not the case during nato. i have not heard a word from the german president. a lot of this is about turkey and of course america, saying we will deploy more troops and provide help for the baltics. for the europeans it is not feel like this is a done affair and now they are worried about the economy. jonathan: that was beautiful. about 2:00 a.m. in madrid. tom: yeah, it's going to be there. and maria is getting ready for the game in paris later this year. jonathan: maria tadeo and

anne-marie --- annmarie. 30 years after the end of the cold war, pugin has done for nato what has trouble doing for itself. coming up, the mission that justifies the continued role and claim on resources. tom: this might be my book of the summer for the third summer in a row, what we are living now is not in his book, it has all changed. jonathan: we are good friends. have any books a year at the summit do you have -- summer to you have? tom: the summer can be rich. jonathan: that is the book of the year. how does one is the book of the summer? summer? -hi, i'm smokey bear and i made an assistant to help you out.

because only you can prevent wildfires. -hey assistant smokey bear, call me papa bear because i'm "grrr-illing" up dinner. haha, do you get it? -yes. good job. -so, what should i do with all of these coals? -don't just toss them out. put them in a metal container because those embers can start a wildfire. -i understand, the stakes are high. assistant smokey vo: ha-ha, ha-ha. -see, smokey think's im funny!

jonathan: a messy quarter gets messier. close out the first half and the equity market looks like this, one point 4% on the s&p 500. a double take this morning, the numbers tallying up how bad it seems, down 15.7% on the s&p 500 so far in q2 and more pain ahead. but just for the equity market,

and credit as well. high-yield spreads, levels we have not seen going back to december 2018. the primary market speeds up, it means no one is able to come to the high-yield market. tom: you're talking jargon. it is bramo jargon. the spread is 500 basis points. 5%. so the yield is 3% in credit, plus five. the yield on high yield is 8%. lisa: closer to 9% on average. tom: ok. i just wanted to get to the english. jonathan: you are translating us. tom: it is jargon. that is a join our men's -- ginormous yield. jonathan: people need to keep up with you. never mind.

yields down three basis points, the 10 year, 3.0537%. tom: look at the two year yield. down on 3000. jonathan: are you going to live market check this? a single currency, 104.12. tom: 122 and sterling, to your point about the order, is anyone afraid the third quarter would be like the second in the third quarter? i don't think so. jonathan: the equity market calls. we talk about jp morgan who thinks the bar is so low you can get the recovery of losses from the first part in the second half. that is a big call. tom: our guest is with us, a senior market asset specialist with experience under the belt, mark, where do you hide this morning? >> it is a tough market but we

made it to the quarter. that is the takeaway today. it is not likely to be as bad in q3. the headline is going to be worse. someone mentioned earlier, we got some warnings coming out but the place to hide it is high-quality, shorter short duration and liquid assets. and the west liquids -- it is the last -- less liquid part of the market that are getting penalized as spreads get tapped out. that is the less liquid part. you've got to stay liquid securities. tom: a study of the american monetary history, the fed always blinks. in what way will jerome powell link given the cards in the third quarter? mark: i think it is important to look at history and understand how economic and business cycles go. you're starting to see this rotation in corporate concessions. companies are not just talking

about supply chains and higher inflation impacts on margins. there talking about demand disruption, particularly around durables. that is where restoration hardware came in with their warning. we need to see more of that. we need the corporate sector to confess and markets to price those confessions. credit conditions contain further. then you get the fed potentially to moderate. but we think they are going to go on 75 in july, another 50 september. so we are not there yet. lisa: you need to incorporate before concessions begin july 15 with earnings, according to jay powell. how much credit has spread in the space considering so many people have talked about strength in this area, corporate balance sheets have continued to be strong and they don't need to refinance for years? mark: it was a notable part of

the first four months of the year, the credit sector held in well. we did not see decompression between the lower part of the market and the higher part of the market. everybody was focus on the negative returns due to long-duration investment rate both in the u.s. and europe. now we have seen that pivot to high yields and the leverage loan market. i think for the spread market to wash out, we need to see this backlog of primary, particularly in high-yield markets, to work its way through. in the u.s., there are more than 80 billion bridges that need to be turned out. there's cat and mouse going on, other investors waiting for the market to clear. as that clears, then you will see more normalcy. lisa: that's break this down. big banks guaranteeing certain loans to finance mergers and acquisitions. they had them on their books and they cannot get their loans off the books because they can't

agree to prices they are willing to accept. how much will that create a fission in market dysfunction that people have to worry about? mark: i think absent some extraneous shock, i don't think you will see dysfunction. the bridges and other financing provisions can last for some period of time. price adjustments, other things can be done. there is no ticking time bomb. and importantly, as we know, we have talked about the private credit market is becoming increasingly able to absorb either nonstandard transactions, or others. there is a separate ecosystem of potential vendors at different prices that can step up so i don't see any real dysfunction occurring anytime soon. tom: i look at -- we talk about spreads, yields, all of that. are we going back to something we remember, or are we carving out something new after this

massive fiscal surge of the pandemic? mark: i think we are going back to something we know. you have to be older than many in the market to have lived it, but we are going through a period of elevated inflation and that takes its -- takes a while to work through the pipeline. it takes aggressive steps by central banks, columbia liquid to raise more than 100 basis points. we are seeing emerging markets to that and you heard yesterday in portugal all of the developed market. such a banks are also on the case. we have been through hiking cycles, but none that are so focused on inflation for a long time. that's why we are moving from a macro reset in the first half of this year into more of a micro recent in the second half of the year. once we get to the microbe reset, you will see a more normalized market and the fed is going to moderate. lisa: when does the dollar stop

being haven? mark: there is a lot that goes into that, lisa. obviously currency relationships are central, but as you mentioned and we have heard from nato, there is a lot of political and budgetary and other dynamics within different countries that could cause the central bank in one country or another -- but i think the dollar is on massive moves. we think we will see a gradual reversal but not a dramatic one. the dollar is still going to be strong but not as strong and not relatively strong. jonathan: thank you for your thoughts, mark howard. he says central banks are concluded to slow growth. none of it suggested dollars over. lisa: that seems to be the

conclusion. there is a study about the lack of true correlation between a global and u.s. recession and where the dollar is going to go. they conceded it is hard to say and it seems like the dollar it has and continues to be the place. jonathan: but keep coming back to the price, picking up on retailers, an example of something you think is well-known but turns out to be appallingly priced. we can go back to walmart, making a note of this yesterday. may 17, they came out, stuck down by more than 11%. target followed a day later and their stock was down 25%. it was obvious white has been priced. that was beyond the effort. yesterday added pain. the stock was down about 24%. the u.s. for seeing a market cap of these companies, a story people think is obvious. tom: hsbc went to long and luxury. this is about the death of the american economy.

those recession talks are driving me nuts. recession is simple. 10% pieces of america, the recession hits hardest abroad middle class and the poor are always hit. those venues you're talking about serve part of america that is already flat on its back. jonathan: that is the approach pbs is taking. they put out a report on consumer headwinds, lowering for consumers, that's where the most negative canal. tom: i love what mark howard said about macro and micro. i'm a believer that you need micro economic foundations to understand macro. in oil, it is critical to look at the micro parts and part of that is the responsiveness or elasticity of demand destruction. right now, that is one of the great mysteries of the first two or three weeks of the third quarter. jonathan: it is the winner of the first half, but is for sure. if you can find one in the

equity market, is energy. it's starting to get volatile for that group, but that has been the story of the first half nevertheless. lisa: hugo rogers was talking about how they are starting to second-guess because of demand destruction, but it falls into the retail story. the demand and gas prices is also happening at certain retailers. but how much is idiosyncratic? this is a flashpoint for criticism, but companies, to go back to rapidly can teach -- rapidly changing consumer appetites in addition to destruction because of the higher prices of gas and food. jonathan: this is jargon free for the next four minutes or so. lisa: is idiosyncratic jargon? jonathan: no, just saying. tom: let's focus on summer reading. richard haass world.

robert kaplan, returned to marco polo. we've got the myth of american politics. all good reading. jonathan: three different shows at once. good stuff. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news rather world with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. russia has withdrawn troops from a strategically important island in the backseat. ukraine says russians were forced to leave because of missile and artillery strikes. the fallout helps with grain exports from ukraine. a big week to revive the nuclear deal between iran and world powers. that is according to the union diplomat mediating a discussion. the semi official news agency of iran says the u.s. did not show

enough flexibility and a guarantee of economic gains from new agreement. the economy shows signs of improving, though gains were less than expected. the nonmanufacturing index which measures construction applied to the highest level in more than a year. airlines delaying a shareholder vote on emergent -- merger. they need more talks for this. they are saying the frontier is -- >> are fighting for a bigger, stronger business. while there is risk on the horizon of recession or whatever that is, the business will recover. it has been in a difficult period over the course of the pandemic in the right place for investors to be is in the low-cost side. the combined frontier in spirit guess that done. ritika: the vote has been set for today but has been

rescheduled. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i don't think we're going to go back to the environment of inflation. there are forces that have been released as a result of this to political shock we are facing now, they're going to change the picture and the landscape in which we operate. jonathan: fascinating remarks from president lagarde of ecb. they can yesterday morning. i sat alongside chair powell and francine lacqua. it is easier to reconcile with what she is saying. the ecb president saying we're

not going back, fed officials suggesting the biggest risk is doing too little, not too much, to get inflation expectations back down and you've got ecb chief. pledging. i wonder how quickly we will have to retire the word gradualism. it is to compare with these, they are two different situations but the same story in another way. and we are approaching the story in different ways. in ecb chief is committed to gradualism, which i think means what he five basis points, let's wait and see. a big change will come later this summer. either the fed will be wrong or the ecb is right or vice versa. we will find out. tom: they can be both right. we don't have time to talk about this but i would suggest they are both adapting to their economies. mr. powell can be more frontloading because america is a stronger economy and that

overweight small. we can talk about this optionality, i think it is important. optionality with oil, 120, brent down five dollars to 115. ellen wall, senior fellow of oil volatility at the amended counsel. many people throw around the phrase demand structure like it is a mint. how does it happen? ellen: it is essentially when people stop buying the product simply because it is too expensive. they're making decisions like i am not going to go out and drive because i can't afford to put gasoline in my car or i'm going to slow down manufacturing because we don't have enough natural gas. we are starting to see people make these decisions. tom: what is critical is it is a non-substitutable product, they say i'm not going to drive,

which tells me units are sold less and price follows. ellen: that's what you would assume would happen. as you get an idea that there is less demand or less demand than you were expecting, you would think that gasoline stations will put in orders for less gasoline and that will triple to the prices. but sometimes it is not quite work like that. lisa: let's build on that. right now we are seeing a division between the physical market and the futures market. the fiscal market highlighting the tightness of the moment, lack of supply relative to demand, futures trying to demean -- to gauge how long it will take for it works its way into cheaper prices. where's the disconnect and where is it getting it wrong? ellen: this is tougher the market to figure out. after factoring seasonality. demand for gasoline in

particular and natural gas has a seasonal component. it is generally less for gasoline in the winter months than in the summer months. there's also that factor to put in as well. i think we are definitely seeing a disconnect, particularly in terms of when they think a recession right hip. that can also act as a big demand destruction factor. it could be very important in terms of when we do see demand destruction and prices start to come down. there's also the factor of, at a certain level, gasoline is the next necessity. there is a recession and people are out of work, they are not going to be driving to work, but if people are still looking to drive to work this will be prioritizing the purchase of gasoline over others. lisa: to underscore the point,

we saw a discontinued the first monthly decline in oil prices going back to november of one share. is this the beginning of a trend or an anomaly as people reset expectations for growth? ellen: i think people are resetting expectations for growth, particularly because the indicators for success in the eurozone and the u.s. are growing more apparent, and in europe we could see some rationing implement it, probably natural gas. gasoline could follow. i think we are seeing that being price into the market now. the real question though is whether we are going to see some kind of resolution to the russia-ukraine crisis. that is what could start to bring down prices anymore substantial way. i would argue potentially it could bring down oil and gasoline prices. we might be able to avert some of the worst parts of the recession because people would be extremely relieved if prices

went down, say oil went down to $80 a barrel. it would be a huge relief for many. tom: drag us into july. does riyadh and abu dhabi have the reduction to change the price of gasoline and distillates in america? ellen: i just wrote about that. i would argue that they don't. they do have more capacity. they can produce more, but i don't think they will add that much more or enough to affect the price of oil. i think the price of oil is being acted on so much by the russia-ukraine crisis that even if they did add a million more barrels to the market combined, i don't think we would see a substantial drop in prices because there are so many other factors like inflation and this russia-ukraine crisis that are pushing prices up. jonathan: ellen wald of the

atlantic council, thank you. looking for a break even in the goa -- the bond market. they're getting hammered and going the other way. lisa: you're looking at people pricing in the recession and the fed -- the fed may and of causing. over longer we revert back to a lower inflation environment. how gasoline can affect that is interesting especially given the fact that if it stays as high as it is, it will spur the recession or exacerbate. how does that fit into inflation? jonathan: how much longer on these price pressures particularly in energy? showing up in the data we got a week. tom: let's go back to lagarde. let's take spain, 10% inflation because that is a round number. the path down from 9, 8, 7, 6 will help it somewhere or another and we should maintain optionality. my study for the third quarter is to get to 5% inflation, pick

a country. is not matter. the steps from their greatly diminished the optionality, degrees of freedom the central bankers have. that is when it gets hard. jonathan: lisa had it at -- 2.3 share, thereafter. -- the year after. lisa: it will be interesting to see whether it is enough to get it under control. jonathan: she came on the show and said it was aspirational. dan said -- futures down 53. -1.4% on the s&p, nasdaq down by 1.6. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> fighting inflation and winning this battle is the most important thing facing central banks. >> are looking at a mild recession started mid-2023. >> there is a high risk that the fed goes hard and fast. >> even if we have recession fears, the central bank are in a tricky spot because inflation is way above target. >> right now, what is impacting the consumer are