>> fighting inflation and winning this battle is the most important thing facing central banks. >> are looking at a mild recession started mid-2023. >> there is a high risk that the fed goes hard and fast. >> even if we have recession fears, the central bank are in a tricky spot because inflation is way above target. >> right now, what is impacting the consumer are necessities,

shelter, food and inflation. >> this is bloomberg: surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and we several modes. jonathan: -- lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm. futures down one point 3% as we look about. tom: you say brutal first half, i'm going to say brutal thursday. the taken micro details, down 19,000, 80,000 with bankruptcies, liquidation is what the british call that. up to 115, recession, economic growth slowdown and the global system, everybody but the yen screams strong dollar. jonathan: this has been a difficult message to swallow, inflation down, tied to financial conditions as part of the objective and even with the

price action we have seen, but the fed chairman, different to what we have seen in the previous 10 years, endorsing it. his words yesterday, markets have been pretty well aligned to where we are going. tom: moments ago, a 103 print on euro. that speaks volumes. 103.97 on euro, that is the challenge for christine lagarde, that is how central banks become overcome. jonathan: largely on the back of some fact data for europe, united states and meta-, more data this morning and onto the ice and tomorrow. lisa: all pointing to a downturn that the fed is going to respond to. picking up on the comments you are making about yesterday's essential banking discussion with francine lacqua, i was struck by what christine lagarde said. i don't think we are going to that environment of low inflation.

this is a sea change that profoundly impacts this. jonathan: entering the space where you step in when things go bad in this market, they're not doing that this time around. if you compare the high yields and the junkie part of the credit market to lay 2018, we are at those points now. but they had the capacity to back away and have the dovish start. they are not doing at this time around. lisa: how much has this market price and the new regime from central bankers and a new reaction function with a higher tolerance to market pain? that is a key question into the third quarter. tom: you at ir in washington the next week or the week after, the top for me is adam of the peterson institute. out of that panel yesterday, you wonder what the 2% is. even with institutional --

jonathan: thursday. tom: next thursday? i don't know if i can make that. jonathan: i will make sure you get to the airport. we will work it out. futures negative, nasdaq 100 down about 1.7. bramo flying around vacation tomorrow. she is gone. yields at four basis points, 5%. things are starting to change in the bond market, up about 70 basis points over the corridor on the 10 year. backing way recently as growth data comes in negatively. lisa: a huge question when some people are forecasting, including our next guest, how the benchmark goes in. we do expect the slowdown to take hold in a year. holding a meeting on how much they can ramp up production, how

much can they offset how high prices have gone on gasoline in the united states? we have seen the first monthly decline in crude prices going back to november. is this a trend or a momentary blip as people reassess growth expectations? 8:30 a.m., the u.s. data for personal spending in may and initial jobless claims. we see the trough in march of this year? we started see an increase as people try to figure out whether we are going to see some sort of higher unappointed rate in the face of tighter financial conditions. i am watching this, because increasingly, the corporate story, each individual one made tell the macro story we need to pay attention to. technology reports earnings. we have seen a huge decline in shares this year. how much do they point to a decline in the demand for memory chips, supply chain disruption

and how much companies are investing? how much would these two leaves determine the shape of the narrative over the next few months? jonathan: thank. closing out june and looking to tilt -- july, jp morgan kicking off things in corporate america. looking ahead to what the bond market will provide to the federal reserve. joining us, the bobblehead of microstrategy at wells fargo. trying to work out given the credit market, we are not where we are now, where is it? mike: it is interesting to look at how yields, it typically peaks at about 10% of the cycle, right now high eight. i would say tennis or somewhere around there. but nowhere near current levels. the fed is saying it hurts, it is painful but this is the future. you're going to see more of it. tom: the theme here, particularly the important panel

yesterday, is the fed and central banks are resolute. by reading melzer, anna schwartz, friedman, richard timberlake of the georgia school, that is baloney. they always succumb to the political zeitgeist, the political pressure. is it going to be the same this time? mike: i suspect the fed and central banks will feel its out of pressure. it is inevitable. the question is not how quickly the cave but impact there decision-making. for chairman powell it is a challenge. he has a look at the fed and say arthur burns, worst german ever. miller probably a close number two. i don't want to be number three. that personal legacy is going with policy. tom: michael schumacher, harsh today. lisa: how do we get ten

percent on the 10-year treasury yield? michael: it's interesting. you have to break it down to where his inflation in the cycle and what real rates will be applied or expected at that point in time. we think probably core inflation tends to cycle 250, perhaps higher and real yields, at least in our view, wells fargo has to be 150 plus. you might say 150 with a recession, how does that happen? think about the last cycle. fairly mild, but at the end of that cycle you have the real 10 year rate, about 115. 150 with incredible inflation and the fed wanted to take out insurance against the inflation genie coming back out of the bottle. that seems double to us. that's how we get to four. -- seems reasonable to us. that's how we get to four. -- i think if you get for percent on tends, speed matters. save happens at the end of the

year. it takes stocks down quite a bit. i'm not sure if they will condemn to 3000, i believe that to chris harvey, but a painful journey. jonathan: we will catch up with him later. i want your functions on yesterday, what was there to you, listening to chairman powell and the governor? michael: when i listen to central bankers, ecb has the toughest job. most closely impacted by the situation in russia and ukraine. i listened to kristi lagarde and say ok, the ecb's rate hikes is not humanly great. on top of that, you have this question. i would circle in gold and red joy 21st on the calendar. the ecb meeting and perhaps more portly, the day of the nord stream pipeline going off maintenance. will the gas go back on? how much? verbal drive policy for the ecb. -- that will drive policy for the ecb. jonathan: fascinating, mike

schumacher from wells fargo. tom: the global system -- not a headline. 119 is a bigger deal than 120, but foreign-exchange speaks volumes. what is not moving today, japanese yen. maybe they've got the day off over there. the yen at 137. you have to triangulate. you can't just look at dollars or one pair like the euro-dollar. you have to triangulate with a second pair to pick up the three relationships and you do that today through the euro-yen which shows you a weak euro. jonathan: focus on ecb, july 21. a moment with european central bank. the ecb president wants to be gradual with mistakes of hiking cycles in the past, 2011, that did not last long. gradually, to any basis points. some one on the committee will

push for more. lisa: especially in light of gasoline prices, it can only be dealt with basil reducing demand. george published moments ago we are concerned with the energy situation in germany. it will percolate and potentially give downside risk to the euro, particularly near the end of the summer. jonathan: this is the dilemma central banks have faced, it defies the central banking dilemma. do you support growth or bring down inflation? that is tough. tom: monetary 101, i think that is the answer. i'm going to go back to the dispersion of the pain. president biden will speak this morning in madrid, what time? jonathan: 8:00. tom: right in the middle of my opening of at our. it is unfair. jonathan: i imagine he will be late. one has the president been on

time? tom: when have i been on time? i'm sorry. they're going to adopt the politics of the moment. jonathan: the central banker has not adopted to the market. and as mike schumacher said, the wind of the moment, this is a feature, not a bug. we are to see more. tom: get the white house on the line. go talk to them. jonathan: futures down on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news rather world, ritika gupta. xi jinping is making a trip off the mainland china and almost 100 days, traveling to hong kong. his comments were in reference to sweeping security in 2020 that crushed them. it is a former british colony. putin reacting to nato and the

decision to it admit finland and sweden, saying they are welcome, nordic nations are different compared to potentially allowing ukraine to join. they for structure and finland and sweden, russia will have to respond. liz cheney has warned fellow republicans she has to choose between former president trump and the constitution. she says she cannot be loyal to both in a speech in california. the country has never faced this threat before. she is vice chair of the committee investigating the attack on the capital. perspective north korean capital -- north grand hackers are believed to be behind blockchain harmony. the hackers, known as the lazarus group, got username and password potential of workers in the asia-pacific to break and use the platform. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more

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>> we are very focused on reducing prices for the american consumers. knowing we are going into it and are in the beginning and the united states higher demand, he wants to see what we can do to reduce the price, even 82 $.50. told the president if he can get $.50 off per consumers the summer, they would welcome that.

most of the countrywide. jonathan: the senior advisor for energy security in the u.s. speaking to annmarie hordern early. with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. the nasdaq 100 down by 1.6% as we round out close out the first half and second quarter. before today, down by almost 60% on the s&p 500. tom: a substantial nasdaq, i don't of the specific but take six or seven other stocks, nasdaq 100. how much is it down? 40%? jonathan: brutal. tom: we are going to recalibrate after an eventful week in bavaria and madrid. 45 minutes scheduled, we will see on that. right now, exhausted from the road trip. maria tadeo in madrid, annmarie

hordern and madrid reporting that it looked awfully good last night. it was good to see you on the shop about 4:00 a.m.. i want to talk about the headline where the gentleman from norway says finland and sweden will be in nato by tuesday. i must ask the question i asked yesterday. how will the czar from moscow respond to american nato troops on a long finish border? >> it is doable, they have a political signal now and if you think about the norwegian, nordic, finnish and swedish, things they use already like military capabilities are nato compatible. they can switch from one day to another and be fully integrated. that is no exaggeration. you look at putin, he was asked that question yesterday.

he said the way i see it come out this is not going to be a problem. i don't get why finland and sweden want to join because we have a cordial relationship. this tells me that a lot of the narrative that putin only attacks ukraine, which no one behind-the-scenes would tell you ukraine was joined -- joining nato soon, it was seen as a redline for him, it is not about the military aspect. this is about his thinking was you have talked about many times, ukraine and russia are essentially one people and one nation. crane cannot be separated from russia, let alone separated from mother russia to join a western alliance. you still believe this is about nato expansion, not paying attention to the words of putin. lisa: if you are still thinking there's cohesion and nato, perhaps we are not paying close attention to the individual stores on the ground. before i get to emery, i want to get your sense of what is going

on in germany, maria. pointing out that two weeks ago, russia reduced a norstrom flow. there is a fear they're not going to come back. what is the plan for germany if that is the case? >> right now they don't have one and that is the issue. the germans, the italians are the reason he's not paying attention to a press conference. he is on the phone, on camera, saying they are worried we are going to see unilateral cut off from the russians to germany and italy. they don't want to talk about it publicly because they fear they're going to see a reaction in the market. we will see prices jump even more. but they worry about this and they know it could happen, whether a week, i day or a month. the impact you could have in the italian industry, the german industry would probably take the economy into a recession. that is the biggest worry for european governments in particular. we have two months at this stage

develop the storage, two monthly weight in the winter. but if we get to september and it is not full, they will have an issue in the winter. it is not a secret. lisa: and it is a politically palatable message to send, stop exploring post-pandemic. from that perspective, how has the u.s. president until the message of european stability and potential prices in the energy space with the issue of trying to reduce gas prices, considering they want to supply europe with oil, gas, they also want to ease consumer pressure locally? >> it is a question i asked the president just a few weeks ago at some point. i said you are a trained man, are you going to tell the american public that because of this war and the repercussions of it, please start using less energy? that is what the chief executive of a number of french energy

companies had to come out, asking french consumers and corporate. maria said, this winter is going to be challenging for europe, considering we are already seeing president putin play politics with gasoline. this going to be a question for the president today. i spoke with his energy whisper and said why did you go ahead with this attempt at a gas holiday if you know congress is not going to go on board? this admin decision is -- wants to be seen as doing everything, including going into saudi arabia. more interesting is when he said that recently opec said they are going to produce more and they are hoping to move to step two. i would like to talk about that in the future, he said. i said we can do that. that is with the administration is hoping for. more on the market around the world to bring prices down. jonathan: thank you.

and maria -- emery and maria tadeo, two of the best. they're preparing for it come when he was to emery -- annma rie, they can see was on the horizon and it is not pretty. tom: it's also about logistics, moving around and storing what they have. people talk about a marshall plan. you got to get in the boats, move the boats over and what you do when it is at rotterdam? that is what this comes down to. it is harder to find the story than the media. jonathan: it will be interesting to see how much the president gets out of the middle eastern trip. in front of cameras and microphones, it was obvious what he was doing, he was in the know. telling him that basically the partners in the middle east can't spare capacity a lot of people would hope. tom: i see mr. micron on the

side -- mr. macron on the side. it's going to be pretty. as the lady said, it's about the calendar. we are in the third quarter and we will focus on that. jonathan: futures down 1.3% on the s&p 500, the nasdaq down by 1.6%. closing the first half in a way that dominated the first half with a lot of red. yield -- looking ahead to economic data this morning, initial jobless claims, and our 35 minutes away. tomorrow we will get an ism print from america. from new york city, this is bloomberg. bloomberg. ♪ girls...

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>> this has been painful. jon: losses in equities, losses in bonds. losses on the s&p 500. futures down 1.3% on the session. before today, on the quarter, we were down on the s&p 500. equities down, yields higher.

or recently, the things are going the other way in the bond market. tuesday, tens and 30, the data is weaker. this week, seeing a range of federal indexes, the dallas fed, the richmond fed, disappointing. yields have started to come back in, down five basis points today on a 10 year. corporate spreads wider. corporations have to pay over the risk-free asset. credit spreads. we could talk about them right now on high yields. tom wanted the definition, that sorts that out. tom: we are all jargon this hour. jon: picture this, high-yield spreads. you see three peaks. one in the mess of november 2020, one right now, one in 2018. think of those three peaks and high yield credit spreads. what you will see is 550 at the

right end, where we are now. at the end of 2018, 550 basis points. in between, this parabolic mess. the first is a problem, at the end of 2018, the inflation was still low, the fed turned dovish. the second one, inflation was low and the fed could be max dovish. the third peak you see on that chart, that is a feature, not a bug. that is a different story. this federal reserve is trying to get inflation down, not up. as they do that, they want to tighten financial conditions. when you hear people say it is a future, not a bug, that is something you have to get used to. tom: you've gotten easy move on inflation as you take out some of those non-core features, and it is heavy lifting from 5%. jon: i think that was jargon free.

tom: i think it was. jon: you look like you are in pain. ok. [laughter] price action, let's get single names. lisa: to pick up on the story of a fed reaction that is not going to come into give free money to this market to save the market, highlights the frost being taken out of the market. can see it with specific names, especially bit doug, or bit coin goes as high as $47,000. in march tupelo $19,000 at one point. we are looking at this mess in the bitcoin and crypto space. coin boys -- coinbase noun -- down 5%. digital down 4.3%. the peter scheer story of how much more broadly this pain will be felt in -- nvidia with their

chips being used in mining technology that a lot of crypto assets fanatics use. those shares down 2.2% following a 47% decline that we have seen this year for this space. it is the retail space, we have been talking about the earnings, some calls we have -- that have been dramatic. carnival shares down more than 14% after yesterday, morgan stanley had a bare case of shares going to zero. they are continuing that with a 3.5% decline after the open. reducing the forecast dramatically for what they expect with earnings this year. because of a lack of demand. shares down nearly 19%, confirming that story. tom: what is great about restoration hardware, on page 482 of their catalog, you can buy oil drums from restoration hardware to put in your living room. lisa: thank you, tom. i will check it on and -- check

it out and pastor medically on that. amazon shares down 2%. i do not think you can buy barrels of oil. jon: i do not think you can, either. the amazon recession is here. lisa: exactly. it has not been fully priced, they see the declines continuing in shares as we get the tea leaves. jon: i have to agree. she is spot on. we keep ringing it up in consumer headwinds, the pain is about to take place in retail. when something is talked about, so well understood, you think it was well priced. every time a retailer comes out with these numbers, they get hammered by numbers like 10%, or 25% if you are bed bath & beyond or target. tom: less surprise at the earnings conference call, right now joining us is daniel scully,

head of market research and strategy for morgan stanley wealth management. the test -- textbook is money illusion, which is, corporate america has a real growth, lousy. plus, big growth, inflation. our corporate's thinking in nominal terms, where it is a good spirit, or they --or are they inflation adjusting? daniel: it is fantastic to be back in studio. they have been thinking were nominal, but it is starting to shift towards the real term. tom: i agree. they have three of us going back to 1975. daniel: when you look at measures and surveys of corporate confidence in particular, you're starting to see deterioration on the margin. one of the bowl cases that we see in the investment cycle,

that is one of the items on the horizon that i think might be concerning. jon: you nailed it this year, you have been bearish on the equity market. i will not say you have been woefully bearish on the economy. the next shoe to drop for you guys is earnings. run us through where you think that pain is going to be concentrated, and how poorly priced markets are with this monthly correction we have had this year. daniel: you alluded to some of the issues concerning retail, which we continue to see. when we think about the over earning that went on, plus cost pressures, plus low income consumer headwinds coming from inflation, it is a perfect storm for that particular sector. we see further pain to come on the retail front and other pockets of consumer. i think industrials is another area where you have to be cautious this quarter. we have seen a strong dollar, acute weakness in europe. the economy there is in much

more dire shape. industrials is another area we need to be thinking about on the cautious side. jon: the index has been mechanically challenged because of the pain in tech. daniel: maria: it is -- daniel: it is fascinating. we have seen phase one of the bear cycle, and nausea from the end of last year. when you think about phase two, it is more earnings related. we are going to see the veil lifted at the next call in seven weeks. as it pertains to tech, there is an ironic nuance in that they had the most susceptible valuation risk as earnings shot higher. on earnings, you could make a cast -- case that tech and earnings growth may be more resilient. two things to corroborate that, number one. when you look at a company like an extension that reported a week ago a very broad read on the digital economy, they are one of the biggest digital

consultants out there. they said demand continues to grow in 13 out of 15 sectors they cover. number two, morgan stanley's cio survey said software spend in corporate enterprise security spend is slowing, but down to averages that were in line pre-covid. i.t. spend is bending, but it is not breaking. that is a key point for overall market earnings. lisa: what that could do to the overall index level, do you think the pendulum has swung to the gloom side that we could be reaching a bottom because of what is getting baked in? daniel: it is about timeline. in the next several weeks, you reaching peak uncertainty related to preannouncement season. we will see if that happens before july. we have got qt and the shrinking of balance sheets in full force. volatility is going to remain high, we will see a wide dispersion as we get into earnings.

we are not there yet in terms of calling the bottom. it is about how deep slow down, how deep in earnings pullback we can have. as jonathan alluded to, we see this as a shallow pullback. the cycle was not led by leverage and excessive credit, that is important. you were talking high-yield earlier, let's talk about that. some of the ghost of high-yield past, consumer in injury cyclicals, are not honest today. energy, hotels, airlines. i do not know if you tried to flight recently, it is not pretty. we do not see credit being the source of this cycle issues, and we do not see a huge earnings or economic contraction. jon: that is going to catch up. that was daniel skelly. those two industries, our capacity constraint. airlines more recently are at

capacity, there are a lot of reasons behind that. lisa: that means expenses flights -- expensive flights may not be able to get you to where you want to go. jon: when you search flights at the moment, tom, you do this every single morning. i went past his desk this morning, what is up, united. tom: francine had a great panel in portugal, she got gulfstream. jon: you look at those prices, particularly through the end of this year, you wonder if they are going to hold up. at one what -- at what point does the revenge travel story, up. tom: there'll be rapid changes within airlines. people cannot afford it. i like how daniel, he is quoting charles dickens. it reminds me of the ghosts of bramo past. lisa: stuck in atlanta.

[laughter] that did not happen. jon: futures down 1.6% on the s&p. from new york city this morning, good morning. you're a dollar -- euro-dollar, 103. real euro weakness in a mix, dollar strength through the first half of this year. from new york, this is bloomberg. ritika: israel facing its fifth election in years. november 1, the end of the coalition could set a priority for the former prime minister bitten yahoo --to come to power. world powers have made little progress according to the

european union. diplomats mediating discussions around us in the additional news agencies, the u.s. did not show enough flexibility over iran's need for guarantee of economic gains. in texas, four men arrested in connection with the death of 53 migrants smuggled into the u.s. from mexico and a tractor-trailer. the victims were believed to have been in the u.s. illegally, most coming from mexico or central america. two suspects arrested on migrant smuggling charges, the other two on gun charges. london and paris are canceling more flights. airlines to cut 30 flights from their schedules today, a strike by firefighters caused 17% of flights at the -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake."

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>> if we see greater persistence of inflation, it leaves options on the table. it is quite clear, the response to this shock, we want to have options on the table. jon: the chorus of pox, governor bailey, the bank of england powell. futures on the s&p, -1.5%. on nasdaq 100, down by 1.8

percent. bonds are rallying. treasuries up, yields down by six basis points. 3.03% on a 10 year. euro-dollar, dollar strength with the exception of the japanese yen. euro-dollar, 103.92. getting closer to levels again for the second time this year. tom: you're going to see that over the weekend. claims coming up, speech from the president coming up. housecleaning, the vix through 30 is a big deal. in the equity space, ok, the vix is so 1950's. the fact the vix is above 30 is angst. the two year yield, could we see a 99 handle on tenure? jon: they are responding to bad news in a different way. they are not a provider of bad news, we have been talking about

high yields, messy markets. we are starting to see bonds the hate like bonds. tom: from global wall street, take notes. jane foley is a student of foreign exchange, with rabobank. far more looking at the linkages between foreign exchange. what i notice, irrefutable. i know that president trump was out front on this, was strong dollar. trey waited dollar by indie -- any indices is back to 2002. what is the significance of a strong dollar back 20 years? jane: this is a strong dollar. what it is reflecting is the riskiness of other assets. there is a strong correlation or inverted correlation between the dollar and risky assets. when risky assets are not performing well, the dollar goes up and vice versa. when we look at the tone in markets now, people are talking about a u.s. recession over the winter and europe, because of

gas prices. it is slower growth worldwide. that is a environment in which the dollar performs well, and risk assets do not. tom: i do not go short-term with too much respect for your work, but i'm going to do it on june 30. where does euro and ee in set up against dollar, september 30? jane: dollar, euro-dollar, for a while. it has been 103-ish. we have had this massive support level at 103.5. we are getting close to that today. if we go below that, we could see parity. we have been able to outline the risk for parity, this has to do with europe, gas prices, higher for winter. thus has to deal with the inflationary stagflation, putting a focus on -- for the

euro zone. that -- with respect to the yen, that is a yield story. the dollar has gone up more than the yen, about 136. if u.s. yield start to come down, i think that gives the bank of japan a little room to carry on doing their control until they want to stop it, which is when wages will start to go up in japan. lisa: you have been saying it is bearish for the euro, given the gas constraints for germany. why haven't we seen more weakness? jane: i think people are only beginning to come around to the recessionary story for the euro zone. we have had that forecast a while, we have been an outlier. more recently, that has become the view that we could see a recession over the winter months has been more commonplace in the market. we have lagarde is sending the

view that we will see growth in the euro zone. the fact she is reiterating that there is pushback a fact about eurozone growth. if you look back to last week, we had the german financier economy minister talking about the possibility that we could cut off to some industries in germany and italy, not difficult to see recession if that happens. lisa: the spiraling effect of a weakening currency in an inflationary environment is something that is a bare case, it will only exacerbate inflationary pressures in the euro region, prompting the ecb to act more aggressively, furthering the downturn. how much are you looking at the incremental weakening in the currency as a bare case for the economic trajectory? jane: this is interesting. we have seen a lot in the last

few weeks amongst central banks. if you look at the speech by castro at the bank of england, she was talking about the spillover effects of the fed hiking by a large amount, that coming through into the u.k. and being seen as more aggressive pace of interest rate hikes in the u.k. to defend the currency. you can see that in norway, norway hiked interest rates recently by 15 basis points. it only served to stop currency going down, it debt -- it did not push the currency higher. we are seeing momentum, central banks have to go big. all of the big ones are going big. that can extend to eight -- essentially -- accentuate demand. maybe for europe and the u.s., will that be suitable, where you

have less wage inflation and more full mobile demand? jon: jane foley of rabobank. i have been surprised by how few people are talking about what she is talking about, challenges in the fx market. they are emerging for the u.k., with cable at 120. and the euro zone, with euro-dollar up 103.90. tom: february 24, called up deutsche bank and said, we have to speak to dr. fogler. that was the first thing out of his mouth, we are going to see strong dollar and the nations are going to have to adapt. he is not talking the angst of the plaza court, the theater of the 1980's plays a big place in the media. there is going to have to be a reaction to this. you wonder where the level is. i haven't done the math work, other than to say, plaza accord strength is distant. we are not there yet. jon: 103.87.

it is almost the total loss to the previous decade, we have gone from fed put to fed call. in the currency market, weakening in the previous market. lisa: it seems like a losing battle for banks, other than the federal reserve. if we are raising rates by a significant amount to defend the currency, only to weaken your economy, you are stuck between a rock and a hard place. jon: sounds like an emerging market. futures down 1.5% on the s&p. on the nasdaq, down 1.7. from new york, this is bloomberg.

>> it is the fed hiking that has set the stage for everything. if the fed does