>> the fed is looking at tightening conditions and saying, it is painful, but it is the future. we are going to see more of it. >> central bankers are being upfront about what they are having to deal with. >> we are seeing momentum were central banks have to go big, because the big ones are going big. >> the markets are starting to smell economic slowdown. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: taking a back to the

1970's. this is bloomberg surveillance alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures negative by .04%. tom: ♪ memories. ♪ guy's, this is simple. i looked at the quarterly chart. today, it is calm down friday. yeah, it has been ugly. if you look at 1970, 1974, and on, there has been all sorts of quarterly measured pullbacks. i wondered, we remember 1987. there is 2003, 2009. and the pandemic. it is not that bad. jonathan: brutal years the last

seven decades or so. come on. tom: it is brutal, a brutal first half. i get that. put it in perspective. i see stanley opening the show, had a nice frame of it. a john williams tone. others, marked down. jonathan: we are getting a downgrade. the new development over the last 24 hours or so. morgan stanley, another contender downgrading growth. atlanta now gdp cast, negative. things are not looking great on the data front. lisa: if you look at the economics of price index, it has been negative for a while. yesterday, personal spending numbers did put a damper on the economic growth expectations. simply because, people are pulling back. a safe sign prices have gotten to a level people are spending less on a real term. jonathan: there has been this conversation about a potential for cuts in 2023.

that is not the forecast, they acknowledged the potential. cuts potentially coming as growth falls further below potential. that is the development in the conversation. lisa: crystallizing it is michael burry where he said, next up is earnings compression. maybe halfway there with respect to how much the stock market has sold off, given we had the worst first half going back to 1970. we could get gloom persisting in the second half. tom: i went back to 1947. i looked back at the smiles we gave to one another for the things -- for the way things were. jonathan: i disagree. tom: we did it twice. in the eisenhower deflation of 1952, things can change. i would suggest we have to be more optimistic. from the corners of my mind. jonathan: are you reciting

lyrics or do you? tom: it is a great movie, barbra streisand. jonathan: i'm going to give bramo the final word. lisa: deutsche bank saying 10 year treasuries had its worst half since 1978. jonathan: are you suggesting jim reeve might be a better historian than tk? does jim redo movie quotes and lyrics? tom: stem the x axis to get perspective. jonathan: what i start to the show. futures down, a little more than 10% on the s&p. yields down by four basis points. tk, this is a development. treasury yields lower. 297.59. tom: em unravels, particularly em. what is so important to understand, it was simple then.

jonathan: i'm going to stop talking to you if you are not careful. tom: everything is going to adjust over the long weekend. jonathan: let's hope you and jos -- you adjust the next couple of minutes. lisa: that sounds like what i say to my kids. [laughter] the ecb's net but buying program and the pandemic is said to end. i am watching this. the guidance we have gotten from christine lagarde on the european central bank to how to deal with the peripheral bond spread, 10 year yields in italy, given how much they blew out a few weeks ago. they have come and dramatically as people look at the possibility of flexibility with reinvestments. when do we get more of a sense and how they are going to do that? this is a data dump we are watching at 10:00 a.m. u.s. june ism manufacturing data, how do we get

manufacturing weakness? how much are people making less stuff, because people are buying less stuff? if you look at the economics of price index, it has rolled over and near the lowest levels we have seen, going back 2019. meaning, people keep being too optimistic about how much growth there is in the economic metrics -- metrically track. u.s. auto sales, gm and toyota reporting. how much do we see a stabilization, a lower level of auto sales, given the inventories are being worked out , well below that $17 million average we saw in 2019? jonathan: thank you. let's get to david woo. these comparisons to the 1970's, what is the biggest difference between now and then? david: the big difference is that the 1970's, unionization was much more widespread.

covid compensated for, covid has made labor supplies somewhat less inelastic because these people who spent two years with their family, their priorities changed, i think that is the reason -- is at an all-time high. people realized that there is more to life than work, that is a huge headache for the fed. tom: i'm going to cut to the chase. the single elephant is the huge fiscal impulse we saw in the pandemic. how long will it take to trail away to diminish the fiscal impulse? david: love coming back to the show. first of all, there were three rounds of fiscal stimulus. the first two were justified. the third unleashed by biden at the start of 2021 was wasteful and unnecessary. by 2021, the economy was coming

out of a law now. vaccines were becoming available . the fed was printing money for two thousand 21. i think the issue was not the stimulus that was deployed in 2020, but 2021 lisa: lisa:. what is the take away? >> the first half of 2022 was scoring our goals-against ourselves. the total economic war of the west and america, particularly against russia, is hurting the west more than and is hurting russia. in my career, 20 years, i have never seen anything like this. to a great extent, i think the reason why the market is going into a recession is because the

market doesn't understand the impact of these economic sanctions. jonathan: a longer conversation next time. david woo, unbound. we are trying to figure it out, particular what it means for europe. tom: is normal and healthy to have a recalibration, events will take over. you are going to see corporate cost-cutting, corporate adjusting. you will see governments make adjustments. maybe the concept of june we have not talked enough about is this concept of frontloading. you are going to have a strategic desire. let's get it over with, so we can move on. that is what the market will expect, where are we when we move on? jonathan: let's talk about the struggle corporations are having when it comes to the credit market. the price of credit, and the supply of credit. the struggle at the moment, it

has not slammed shut, but the primary market has been slow the last or so. the slowest june since 2010 for the high-yield credit market. that is noticeable. lisa: given the fact you have seen more deals pulled than the entirety of 2020, during the height of the pandemic. that means companies planning to sell bonds, they withdrew those deals because they thought they were not going to get the levels they needed and wanted. this highlights how much companies need -- do not need the market yet. what happens when they do? tom: the call of this week is how spread and widened out, that is may the singular picture of the week. jonathan: couldn't agree more. you just wonder where the tipping point is for the federal reserve it isn't here. where we are at on price, close to the supply side. i wonder where the tipping point

is. tom: i think the tipping point is key, i would go to the strange phrase, reaction functions mike mckee pension yesterday. over the weekend, you are going to be partying like a monster. i read some pages, about blanche hard. they say, where'd you get to to the tipping points along the way? it is plural, there are a number of points that matter. my amateur take is 5% matters when we get there. jonathan: high yield spreads, 550. right now, mike shoemaker of wells fargo, quote of the week. this is a future, not a bug. we are going to see more of it. this is his view, we are going to see others. lisa: by tightening these

financial metrics, that is the point. tom: we got over 1974. barbara singing. what you have got to remember, it is the laughter. we will remember. jonathan: are you going to sing us out? go on, sing us out. tom: it is not as bad as 1974 or 1975. jonathan: can you imagine waking up to this? wall street, turn on the tv, tom is singing to us in a bright green suit. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: this is painful. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: inflation in the euro zone rose higher than expected to a record last month, jumped 8.2%. european central bank is expected to raise interest rates this month for the first time in more than a decade.

coronavirus has returned to the chinese city where it first emerged. two cases reported in on -- wuhan. they came days after president xi jinping's symbolic visit where he reiterated the country zero covid policy. revise the 2015 nuclear deal, the statement came after the latest round of discussions ended in qatar after failing to make progress. trump pulled the u.s. out of the agreement in 2018. the biden administration wants to renew the deal in return for easing sanctions. in russia, a trial begins today for u.s. basketball star brittney griner, who is jailed more than four months ago on cannabis possession charges. the olympic gold medalist was playing for a russian team. she could face up to 10 years in prison. the biden administration calls

her wrongfully detained. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i indicated to them, we

should be increasing production generically. i hope we see them in their own interest concluding that makes sense to do. jonathan: the president of the united states on the international stage, the next stop in the next month will be the middle east. good morning. futures kicking off, -2% on the aspen -- on the s&p. bonds, closed out 21, sub 150. 350 got close to that on a tenure. we backed away the last four days. the last four days are instructive, with five basis points at 49 on a 10 year. tom: the ism data will -- which, you are a big fan of. 29610 year yield, that is a compression of the yield curve.

jonathan: break it down. writing in, tom, is it as big as 1986 and the world series? tom: that doesn't need american translation. aim three was bad. linnie geiser hit the ball off of linney can boyd. the ball never came down. it reached a velocity. jonathan: we will be doing that on bloomberg tv, going into the opening dow. tom: maria tadeo and annmarie hordern -- maria tadeo could not get out of bed, but annmarie is here. we pick up the pieces. i want to go to the other side of the road. president of the united states will return and witness hong kong and the absolute shock at

what happened across the ark of the last 25 years. what is the distinction between the biden and trump policy on china? annmarie: at the moment, not much. you saw this in the campaign trail, both biden and trump, seeing how this was pulling with the electorates, wanted to talk on china. there is one issue at the moment that this administration, we are waiting for an answer on. whether or not they are going to lift him tariffs from the trump era on china, because some economists think it could -- inflationary concerns. they had stock with a lot of policies trump put in place on china. there is one potential nuance in approach, that is president trump took a unilateral approach win wanting to combat china, while president biden relishes in his multilateral approach. he was at the g7, they discussed

china. for the first time, a strategic concept in madrid for that nato document, they called china a systemic challenge. a lot of that is driven by washington. tom: in the blur yesterday, we did not speak to the symbolism of the leadership of japan, south korea and the united states of america meeting at a nato meeting. let me ask a dumb question. is japan and south korea, did they end up going nato? is that possible? annmarie: it is a good question. at the moment, no. it is not on the books. we'd -- we did see a historic moment of finland and sweden joining. this goes to show where nato alliance sees their potential threat. it is telling that you have japan and south korea discussing this with the nato alliance. i would say, key, this is an exclusive bloomberg reporting, the way the chinese military is starting to talk about the taiwan strait is different

language wise than they have done in the past. now, they are serving that it is not international waters. i asked numeral -- admiral kirby, he said it is not true. he said these are international waters, but this is going to be a growing problem. it is clearly a growing concern for washington and nato capital. lisa: joe biden coming home to a july 4 where there is going to be a record number of drivers, people experiencing a lower pain at the pump, but near record highs. seeing yesterday, -- saying yesterday, president biden wants people to expect to pay higher prices as long as it takes. how different of a shift is this , making it a nationalistic push, saying this is part of the war against russia, we have to accept these prices?

annmarie: i think the president has been saying this all along, maybe not so directly. it is why the administration has been trying to call this to the public and explained to the public, "putin's high's -- price hike." opec in august of last year to produce more, they saw the headwinds come down. there is no denying russia's invasion of ukraine has exacerbated the problem. this morning, russia had a decree at about the -- terminal, this is going to be a gas issue. what it shows overall is that, expect more volatility in this market. jonathan: annmarie, we will catch up with you. looking forward to that. amh and maria tadeo. lisa, when it comes to foreign policy, russia is taking the lead on everything. the administration is willing to

compromise other foreign policy goals because of the problems it is causing for home. it is awkward, i choose that word. you can choose another one. to hear the prospect of chinese tariffs being removed from an administration accusing china of genocide is beyond awkward. you can choose your own words. that is problematic for a lot of people. lisa: it is coming at a time when political calculus shifted, when people want to do the right thing and cling to ethics, but are facing off with bills they do not want to, or cannot pay. that has been the main, political calculus now. the reason it has not got passed earlier, the tariffs haven't gotten highlighted -- haven't gotten lifted, highlights the comments from earlier. jonathan: there has been this talk about this administration asking to pump more, the president was hesitant to confirm that in the news conference yesterday. tom: awkward, yes, nice cash. i heard that.

what concerns me, energies are focused on oil production, not distillates. every pro i talk to, including the great of a boss -- says they should focus on distillates. they are not. jonathan: the problem is refining capacity. that is not easily addressable right now. tom: ruble, 41% strength. jonathan: the president said at the news conference yesterday, i paraphrase, they wanted to hurt russia and not their own people at home. russia, the energy revenue, the ruble,. tom: it was also simple then. jonathan: are you going to keep this up? cannot wait.

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jonathan: earnings from the 1970's as tom is singing. please stick with us. futures down on the s&p, down .1%. on the nasdaq 100, down .2%. the worst first half on the s&p since 1970, kicking off the second half and third quarter.

i want to think about the range we have seen on the u.s. 10 year, sub 150 to close out. 350, we got close to that in the last couple of weeks. in the last four days, yields down five basis points on a 10 year. tk, the data is speaking to the move. the data has not been great. tom: the yields spaces giving us a lot of information this week, the uncertainty and estimates about recession. the magnitude of recession. the different opinions. all we have left is to look at the data. we have our favorite data points. we have gotten more information from fixed income this week than any other group. jonathan: in credit, the stress we are starting to see. we are starting to see a little stress. lisa: that is fair to use. liquidity has been so poor. i want to push back, it is not the optimism, the faith that we are going to get a rally because

things are not that bad, people are over gloomy, people are concerned. people are concerned about a fed that is going to go hard. that is by design. to that point we were talking about earlier, they want to see the selloff deepen in order to effect the change they need to see with inflation. jonathan: you could see the selloff deepen, or catch the upside. there are two different ways you could think about it. the next several months, the idea we could get in easing the financial conditions and the fed would be ok, that is a uncomfortable position to be in at the moment. basically, it cap on the s&p for 4k. this fed once tight, financial conditions. tom: i have great respect for michael cost center, their timeline is three to six months. i'm going to give zero credit, i cannot remember where i saw this. if you extend out from the gloom

, over six months, over a year, if you go out two years, the fact is, you see a recovery. in 1970, when you are down and out, on wall street and there is a bear market, you can find a bridge over troubled water. jonathan: i will make a serious point as you try and slip in more lyrics". -- agrees with you. the near term, you get competitive. a better view from his perspective in this market. tom: we are not going there. jonathan: please stop going there. europe cpi, upside surprise. 8.6% on the headline inflation number, in line with the u.s. core slips back, sub 4%. how much has changed for the ecb today? i am not sure a lot, compared to where we were yesterday. tom: into our four day work week next week, the relative move of price change is key.

we are going to get a brief from sarah watt house. what is the vector, the tone and magnitude of change in your forecast for the gdp of the american economy? sarah: what we learned this week, the consumer is on more fragile studies. cracked the emerge in their spending patterns, maybe they do not have the fortitude to spend in this inflation environment than what was recorded in recent data prince, where we can see notable downward revision. overall, we are looking at an economy using momentum faster than what we anticipated. right now, we have a recession call for the beginning of the first half of next year, but if anything, the data shows the timing look like it could be sooner. tom: does nominal gdp, the animal spirit that matters for businesses, does it come down as well?

does inflation stay elevated and give us false comfort, or does nominal crush down, as well as movement in real gdp? sarah: with the inflation environment, we do not think we have seen peak inflation yet. that is probably more of a story for august or september, that will keep the nominal numbers elevated, even as we see real growth slow. when you get to the fourth quarter of this year, you will see a more curial slowdown in nominal gdp coming from disinflation, not a lot. also, that weaker growth profile. lisa: where is the inflation going to come from if we have not seen peak inflation yet? sarah: i think there is still plenty of pressure coming from food prices. yes, we are seeing moderate gains, but they are hefty. we have seen food inflation rise over 1% are a number of months. there is plenty of momentum there. we are seeing good inflation, it isn't over.

you see anecdotes of inventories piling up. services inflation, we haven't seen services inflation peak yet. a lot of that is coming from housing, but not just housing. there is upward pressure on things like travel prices, but it is some of the more mundane services, medical, insurance, that can still support higher inflation over the near term, and keep that headline number from lowing over. lisa: this is one theory for why the fed is going to go much further in other regions, because they are facing off with service based inflation that exceeds the weighting of certain goods inflation. when we talk about the disinflationary force oversupply, stemming from the undersupplied two years ago, that is going to help other regions in the world more than the united states. can you give us a sense how close we are to that oversupply, especially at the likes of vi krohn come out and talk about much less demand for chips? sarah: we will see that in the

good space, we have seen anecdotal reports of inventory pilot. we have not seen that in the broad economic measures yet. there is a lag there. when it comes to business inflation, that is the core number, it is only 20% of the index. you will need more than disinflation is good, you need outright decline to bring inflation down. we have seen supply chain stress ease up a little, there supply drive times come down, they are at elevated rates. we are far from the all clear, we are not going to see immediate relief. jonathan: i am on the bloomberg thing at the atlanta fed gdp forecast. can you explain what we are talking about, what are they tracking, and how accurate is it? sarah: this is tracking the data

we see today, not making assumptions on june data, which we have yet to see. it is a face value of what the latest data print and momentum's are seeing. an important aspect of the gdp number tracking for q2, we see more market slowdown and consumer spending, more weakness in real investment across equipment, across a big drag in inventory. we had the two biggest quarters in inventory build. we are still adding to inventory in the second quarter. it is not as fast a pace, that is a reason for the negative number. tom: claudia, claimed economist, in slow down and labor was heated that atlanta gdp is now not capturing a fully employed america. do you see labor breaking in the third quarter of this year? sarah: i see the labor market

weakening, but i think we are far from the bottom going out on the labor market. that is important when we talk about whether we are potentially in a recession now, yes, we see a -- we have seen a negative print for q2. if you look at the nuance, looking at that criteria that looks for the widespread decline in activity, i do not think we have seen that at a big portion. that is because we are adding jobs at a tremendous clip, keeping real income still going positively as spenders are impacted. that is important in short-circuiting this talk of recession, if you are adding jobs, that is helping your income picture. that helps demand from falling to marketplace. jonathan: in q1, we explained away the negative print by talking about inventories and

trade data. you expect same story in the second quarter? sarah: i think you can explain away some of it, but if you look at final demand from domestic purchases, we are seeing a slow down there. it its exaggerated weakness, but we are seeing an economy begin in the second quarter and end of the year. jonathan: these are issues, particularly what is happening in europe the trade story does matter. if you have international demand, softer weaker, you are going to see spillover. i go back to the morgan stanley call, the bill off the back of the team in europe forecasting the recession for the european economy and concluding some of that is going to bite. it is what happens stateside. lisa: that is one reason you have companies multinational coming from the west talking about the dollar, it is the headwind for the potential lack of competitiveness when it comes

to exports, or is it because the weakness is what is causing it? there is less demand on the overseas side. how much can we get europe avoiding a recession in light of what we are expecting to see with gas prices? that is a crisis we are going to be talking about for the weeks upcoming. jonathan: they are in a sticky spot. they have upside risk on a inflation front, downside risk on a growth front. inflation is not of --. think of the counter of the ecp. they have a couple of meetings, you can have a situation where the ecb may gets back to zero or just above. before october time, q4. tricky. tom: i'm going to use the thermometer, foreign exchange. foreign exchange is front and center, i believe we have jordan rochester coming up. e.m. doing poorly today, adxy about ready to go through the week this.

foreign exchange matters right now. jonathan: i think -- put on a call putting out for parity. tom: i didn't know that. i was singing walk like a egyptian. ♪ lisa: can -- oh, dear lord. jonathan: can you keep this up for two hours? tom: stay tuned for 2003. [laughter] jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: the stage is set for the european central bank to raise interest rates this month for the first time in more than a decade. inflation rose to a record last month. prices jumped 8.4% from a year ago. we were driven by soaring costs for food and energy. china's president xi jinping's energy crackdown on hong kong's

pro-democracy movement in a landmark speech marking the 20th anniversary of chinese rule. he said the former british colony should focus on its economic development. he said hong kong has entered a new stage of entering chaos to governance. new york explaining its coronavirus outbreak on "alien things." health officials said as early as two years ago, the virus has made its way --. china southern airlines agreed to buy 86 jets. discounts are generally given for large orders print china's going to be receiving the planes and 2024. the college sports world has been rocked. ucla have agreed to lead the pack 12 conference and joined the big ten, that is a

predominantly midwestern league. the move comes after the big ten is about to sign a giant the contract, it could lead to more movement, discourse. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake." powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think we should have started earlier the joint declaration to put in place more scaffolding to protect people's clamber towards greater freedom. jonathan: christopher dash, the former governor of hong kong. futures down .4%. negative on the s&p, nasdaq 100, down .5%. yields,. to 9657. -- 296.57.

targeting 340, on a two year yield. she thinks the terminal rate over the bed adds a four handle, she thinks it will take it to 4%. tom: after this weekend, we will monitor this and start strong on tuesday in america. we will pause for stephen engle and yvonne man, and look at the hong kong that is gone. it may be from my childhood and susie wong, the magisterial in love of 20 years ago. there is a hong kong and our minds, it is evaporated. at the star ferry in hong kong, i cannot fathom the emotion of what is going on. tell us your vignette, your emotion as president xi visits. >> it certainly has been a

somber day. you can tell we are in a matter of a typhoon, where we have seen strong winds and stormy weather. it reckons back to 25 years ago. behind me, where this handover ceremony took place, and you hear that sound from. charles came here to hand over back to beijing. at the time, there was that aura of uncertainty, of what beijing rule would be, what this one countries framework would play out the next 50 years. i would say, the same sentiment is being felt in the last two to three years, we have seen a dramatic change in the political environment since this national security law was imposed two years ago to the day. tom: dramatic changes, people are leaving. what -- not what you would be predicting, but what would be the guests of what they will do, and the western financial institutions will do?

yvonne: we have seen that during the handover, we have seen an exit us of people leave. people still lingering, questions of what it will be like. we have seen that the last two years ago. we spoke to foreign chambers that said, yes, people leave. it is temporarily relocating, possibly moving offices. moving people to hubs like singapore, where the borders are reopened. it is not so much the political backdrop or national security, what has overshadowed that has been hong kong's covid zero strategies, where borders are closed not just with the mainland, but the rest of the world. for the financial and business community, this is key. there is no exit plan. we have seen under the administration a flip-flopping of policies. we are starting to see, maybe there is science hong kong can break apart from china when comes to the 0 -- covid zero policy part.

we are seeing about 2000 cases a day, which is probably bringing it back to the highs of april. a couple months ago, we would have seen cinemas, bars, closed. we have not seen that yet, there is local media reports talking about easing more of the travels here, maybe a five plus two model for quarantine times, as well. whether john lee can deliver on that and reopened to the rest of the part of china is going to be key for many businesses. lisa: that does seem to be the tension here, especially as xi jinping heralds the unification of the mainland and hong kong, emphasizing it is important to get hong kong's business up and running. how much is this going to be the deciding factor of how china emerges from zero covid, with hong kong as the test case? yvonne: there has been a lot of talk about how hong kong could

be the testing place for china to emerge out of this covid zero. we have seen that in the mainland. just this week, cutting quarantine times in half. in a symbolic trip to wuhan, talking about doubling down, saying covid zero is the most effective policy. there is still a lot of questions about that. given the business community, they are looking for a lot of answers. for the most part, i'm narrative, they have been pushing this thesis that, if we can solve the social, inequality issues and hong kong, perhaps the stability can be stored. for the foreign businesses aspect, that is the key question. we still have not seen any sort of indication that hong kong may be ready to break apart from the mainland. jonathan: the brilliant yvonne man. she nailed it, a somber day for a lot of people.

tom: she mentioned on covid. we are living this with our hong kong team every day. we are not waking up and going, ok. how long am i in the apartment? can i get home from the office? that is the tension for the western world and hong kong. jonathan: on the business front, you can see where this is heading. foreign companies, multinationals are worried about offending the chinese economist party. you can see several teams across different banks start to shift away from hong kong. other places like singapore. tom: singapore is a whole different feel. you get on the plane and go down south, it is like, this is not the same as hong kong. i do not have expertise. it is shanghai. did everybody go back to tokyo? jonathan: you think, to the mainland? tom: there has been a thrust of trying to make shanghai the financial capital. it is the most new york city

like new york in the world i have been in. they have got the same covid problems hong kong has. jonathan: they deemphasized hong kong for a lot of people, from the outside looking in. lisa: it reduced business activity. i keep going back to the covid zero aspect, we saw pmi's out of asia overnight. they highlighted the slowdown trickling from china, south korea to the southeast asian come -- countries experiencing was how long can they continue before something breaks economically in the region and beyond? i think hong kong highlights that with businesses leaving and the inability to foster growth. jonathan: data stateside. later this morning, get a nice manufacturing print. we get the thoughts of michael or work -- o'rourke. equity markets, down .4% on the s&p. first half, was pain and bonds -- pain in bonds.

in the bond market, yields are down five basis points we had four days of this, 296.30. tom: the equity levels are back. i take the point that the first half was grim. i want to extend my timeline out. i feel better. i do not know where i am going to, maybe it is 2024. jonathan: credit suisse says we could get a double-digit gain in the second half. super constructive on earnings in a way others are not. quite a lineup in the nine :00, you want to join? tom: maybe i will. jonathan: you should. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the fed is looking at the dining conditions and saying it hurts, it is painful, but this is a feature, it is not a bug. >> central bankers are finally being upfront about what they are having to deal with. >> we are saved momentum or central banks have to go big because all of the big ones are going bake. >> the markets are starting