>> recession is inevitable, but i don't think it is imminent. i think europe is going into recession, the u.k. is in recession, and >> i have to debate the u.s. >> we are skeptical we are in for an immediate recession. >> i think recession, although a mild one, is priced in. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," alongside tom

keene, i'm jonathan ferro with kailey leinz. year equity market negative .1. we are on two things, parity watch and resignation watch number two. tom: they are linked. the stress and attention away from the scandals that are the reality of uncontrollable inflation. i would emphasize for our american audience on radio and television it is different in the u.k. utility bills, grocery bills, the nearness of the continent, the nearness of the war of ukraine makes it a different moment, as sir lindsay hoyle talks in the house of commons right now. jonathan: we can hand it over to the house of commons right now with questions. prime minister: to make impacts lower and the tax burden easier. these changes will benefit 30 million people across the u.k.,

and i'm pleased to say that two of those people are seated in the public gallery today, mandy, a typical worker, will now save the hundred 30 pounds per year -- save 330 pounds per year, real money for real people. mr. speaker, i'm sure the house will also join me in wishing the best of luck to england and northern ireland, computing in the cup of 2022, starting today. i'm sure they will both make the nation proud. in addition to my duty, i expect there to be leader meetings of this event -- later meetings of the seven. >> last week, we launched a new approach to combating crime, which has the increased use of

stop and search, and tougher sentencing, and more work. would the prime minister agree with me that if you carry a knife, you should expect to end up behind bars? >> what he is doing to campaign to campaign against my crime, and what they have done, including threatening with a knife or a second offense of possession, facing minimal sentence or six months in prison , and guess who voted against tougher sentences for life crime? >> when it comes to leaders, the opposition -- >> thank you, mr. speaker. today is the start of the wome'' zero, so we will wish them the

best of luck. mr. speaker -- mr. speaker, it is also been for years since the death of paris higgins. he sadly died of age. the labour party are committed to ending in cases of hiv by 2030. together, we can. mr. speaker, last week, a government minister was accused of assaulting a young man. i want to quote the victim's account. he says, he grabbed my [beep] and instilling with his hand down in front of my groin. i froze. i expect that is not easy, but it is a reminder to all those

propping up this prime minister, just how serious the situation is. he knew the accused minister had previously committed the behavior, but he promoted it to a position of power anyway. why? >> mr. speaker, that individual, that member no longer has the conservative. he is -- as soon as i was made aware of the allegations you just read, mr. speaker, the complaint that was made, he lost his status as a conservative mp, and he is now the subject, mr. speaker, of an independent investigation to the complaints and grievances of the panel. that is entirely right. i want to say to him that i abohr bullying and abuse in

parliament, this party or any other party. >> none of that explains why he promoted it in the first place? and we have heard it all before. we know who he really is. before you respond out, he is reported to have said he has it. that is the problem. in just by name and nature. has the prime minister ever said words to that effect? i'm not asking for bluster and half-truths -- we've heard enough of that. yes or no? >> mr. speaker, i'm not going to trivialize what happened. yes, mr. speaker, yes, mr. speaker, complaints have been raised against the member and they are being investigated now. it is true that the complaint was raised when he was in the office, and the matter was

resolved. it is absolutely true, mr. speaker, that it was raised with me. i greatly regret that he continued in office, and i have said that before, mr. speaker. i have said that before, mr. speaker. but it is now subject of independent investigation. that is the right thing, mr. speaker. frankly, i think the people of this country with like also to hear -- they would like also to hear about other jobs that have helped people, not leave the 500 thousand people who got off welfare and into work last six months alone, mr. speaker. those are making differences the lives of people in the country. i'm proud of it. >> no denial. he says the matter was resolved, when he means it was upheld. a narrow sitting there as if it is normal behavior. when that young man reported his attack to a government whip,

she asked him if he was gay. when he said he was, she replied, that does not make it straightforward. that comment will sicken anyone who has faced sexual assault and then make them feel they had offered it or worry their complaints will not be taken seriously. will he apologize for those disgraceful comments on behalf of this government? >> mr. speaker, i've already said that i regret very much that the member continue to hold office after the complaint was made against him in the foreign office. it was resolved. clearly, that was not enough, and in hindsight, esther speaker, i should have realized he would not change. however, when it came to friday of last week, and when i was given the information about the

complaint made against the honorable member, i immediately took the whip away from him, and we will not tolerate that kind of behavior in this or any other parliament. what we also want to do is help people up and down the country with exact also matter, like cutting their taxes by 330 pounds this year. >> doesn't that just sum him up? awful behavior, un-in any walk of life, there for all to see, but he ignores it. it was the same when his ally was on the table for lobbyists. it was the same when his secretary bullied staff. it was the same when taxpayer's money was being abused, and it is the same here through lockdown. anyone quitting now of defending all of that is not a shred of integrity.

mr. speaker, isn't this the first recorded case of the sinking ship's fleeing the rafts? >> he talks about -- he should hear what they say about him, mr. speaker. he talks about integrity. he wanted to install a member into number 10. that is what he wanted to do. imagine what the world would be like now. he talks about integrity. he voted 48 times to overturn the will of the british people and get it back into the european union, and, by the way, his speech the other day, that is exactly what he would do again. mr. speaker, he talks about integrity, mr. speaker, he has noted time and time again against sanctions on criminals

that would put them behind bars. i'm sorry, he talks about integrity. he is himself facing a criminal investigation, mr. speaker, which he asked me to resolve. >> a dying active is political career is nonsense. as for those who are left, only in office because no one notices prepared to the base themselves any longer, the charge of the lightweight brigade. [laughter] mr. speaker, for a week, he has been defending his decision to promote a sexual predator. every week, the lines he has forced them to take have been untrue. first, that he was unaware of any allegation. untrue. then he was unaware of any specific allegation. untrue. then he was unaware of any

serious specific allegation. now, he wants them to go out and say, peaceably forgot. -- he simply forgot that his whip was a sexual predator. anyone with anything about them would be long gone. in the middle of a crisis. doesn't the country deserve better? >> mr. speaker, and is exactly when times are tough in the country faces pressures on the economy, and pressures on their budgets, mr. speaker, and will we have the biggest war for 18 years, mr. speaker, that is the moment you would expect a government to continue with its work, not to walk away, and to get on with their jobs and

focus on the things that matter to the people of this country. we are not only cutting taxes today, mr. speaker, but working 1200 pounds into the 8 million most vulnerable households in the country, thanks to the strength of our economy and decisions that we took, which he opposed at the time. >> the only thing he is delivering is chaos. i started this session with a quote from the young victim in all of this, how he froze when he was attacked. when i was prosecuting rapists, i heard that from victims all the time. victims say they froze because it is not about sex. it is about power. and the power that is graced government minister had was handed to buy that prime minister, and he is only in power because he has been propped up for months but a corrected party defending the indefensible.

so it is no longer a case of how swapping a person at the top is made clear, the only way that the country can get the fresh start it deserves is by getting rid of the lot of them. [indiscernible chattering] >> mr. speaker, mr. speaker -- >> shh. we have got to get through prime minister's questions. >> mr. speaker, the difference between this government and opposition is we have a plan, and they do not. they want to focus on this issue, and we are going to get on with our job. we are going to control prices by not giving into the union. they are paid by the union barristers, and they are proud of it. we were the first european countries, and i'm proud of that. the party opposite not only want to put mr. corbyn, but

eight of them, including the shadow deputy leader, voted to get rid of [indiscernible] [shouting] today we are cutting taxes, helping people into work, and we are helping people up and down the country, and we are going to continue to deliver on the mandate i was given. >> thank you, very much. monday night, the northern ireland legacy bill reached its third reading. with it, the beginning of the end of the journey, a long journey to make sure the service and sacrifice of those who served in iraq, afghanistan, and northern ireland is not rewritten by those who seek only to line their own pockets. what the prime minister is doing this we can never again allow

that to exist in this place, and never allowed to make it feel like we are on their side, and lead the commitment to make sure this is the best country in the world to serve in the military and be a better enough. -- and to be a veteran of. >> thank you to all of the work he has done for veterans and continues to do. this bill will give veterans the certainty they deserve and a pledge to end the cycle of investigation, but also at the same time make sure families can get the answers they need about what happened to their loved ones. >> [indiscernible] >> thank you, mr. speaker. can i give acknowledgment to england another island, leading the championships, there is nothing better than seeing the teams in the finals. can also commemorate the passing 40 years of all those who have died? i'm sure the whole household want to join with me in passing

condolences to the family and friends of the scottish football goalkeeping legend, who sadly passed away last weekend. he will long-lived -- tom: we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and television, particularly across america, politics done freely. an historic moment, the prime minister under direct. sir lindsay doyle managing the emotion of -- sir lindsay coyle managing the emotion. you are hearing the moment for the prime minister, leavened with other matters, questions that prime minister. jon ferro, what is so important is who sitting behind the prime minister, mr. johnson. it is a different team than ours ago. jonathan: it is on either side, you now see a new chancellor. you will get back to this and continue to listen. >> sorting inflation and the growing cost of brexit.

instead, it is always about him. how many more ministers need to quit before he finally picks up his pen and writes his own resignation letter? perhaps that is what he is doing now. >> actually, mr. speaker, i was jotting down notes on his question, which at that was excellent when he was talking about the economy because that is the issue that the country basis, and that is where this government is introducing the most important decisions, helping families up and down the country with 1200 pounds going into their accounts right now, cutting taxes for 30 million people, and helping half a million people into work. that is a fantastic thing to be doing. that is the priority of this government. i am glad he liked it. >> my goodness.

nothing to see. we should all move on. [laughter] a few weeks ago, i compared the prime minister to monty python's black knight. i am wrong. he is actually the dead pirate. he is not the next prime minister. he will leave behind two deeply damaging legacies. i hope the dishonesty of his leadership will show that, but the other legacy is brexit. that will stay because i'm sad to say that the labour party fully supports me. mr. speaker, scotland wants its own future, not just a different prime minister. will the prime minister caller general election and allow scotland their choice of an independent future based on the controller westminster? >> mr. speaker, his remark is

that the labour party has given up on -- he was preaching his rupture, and it is not true. they want to go back in, just as he does. i think that is a terrible mistake, it would be anti-having democratic. as for the referendum, we had one, as i told him before, in 2014. >> thank you, mr. speaker. does the prime minister think there are any -- jonathan: you have been listening to the prime minister answering questions from the leader of the scottish national party. you can continue watching this on bloomberg.com and bloomberg twitter and bloomberg news u.s. on facebook. tom, the prime minister under pressure, increasingly so. tom: the prime minister under pressure, 12 noon, london time, and the impression is you have to get to the evening.

the experience of america is governments under threat, usually things happen in the evening. what happens after this drama in the house? jonathan: we understand there are even more resignations, and they continue this morning, even while this is taking place. kailey: you continue to see them. he was asked moments ago how many more ministers have to resign before you yourself will resign? he pushed back and tried to drive the conversation back to economic policy, the work of the government, fiscal stimulus he wants to get back to. how much will he have success in doing so when this kind of turmoil is going on in the house of commons and he will face more later tonight? jonathan: let's talk about the foreign-exchange market, sterling against the u.s. dollar, 119.10. some of it is entertaining, depressing, but, ultimately, it is about policy. it is very difficult to understand what the fiscal policy path looks like with this

mess playing out before us in the house of commons. tom: the immediate moment, it is tax cuts or increases, but what is so important is the aisle and nation -- isle and nation beleaguered. this is a group of conservatives and labours facing extraordinary pressures. you see that expressed within whip sterling, but as this drama continues, and as sir lindsay tries to keep the government on the rails with questions to the prime minister, are we going to see a 118 handle on sterling? jonathan: we can hand it over to lizzie on 10 downing street. what do you make of it? >> well, there is always a worry that the opposition leader will focus on policy rather than personality, not this week. he has gone into the chaos. he quoted at boris johnson the

reported line that he once called mp, that the whole scandal is about pincher by name and major. boris johnson did not want to answer that, and then he referred to the torrey benches, or the dogs. boris johnson repeated the same line back at him, that the conservative government has delivered on ukraine, the pandemic, brexit, even referring to jeremy corbyn, who he managed to beat to office. they sounded tired, frankly. tom: i have got two ways to go, let me first ask this. i have been watching like everyone in america a very british scandal, 50, 60 years ago of another scandal, and the outrage here, we heard the gentleman from labour talking about this, is this about sex and scandals or much more/

-- much more? lizzy: it is about the character of orest johnson. the word that was used -- the character orest johnson. the word that was used was integrity. they could not defend the constantly changing line about what boris johnson knew about chris pincher in public anymore, but it is related to sex scandals. but that adds on to the partygate issuing cost of living crisis. it has been the straw that has broken the camels back. tom: we have seen this before. i've witnessed it, the fire is so radically different than what we see in america. jon, how different is labour from corbyn to starmer? jonathan: he is meant to be more

of a centrist and appeal to some conservatives in the way that corbyn did not. it is unclear if an election will happen anytime soon and whether we get the resignation from the prime minister and ultimately the leadership contest and then further down the road a call for an election. there is a lot to play for here. in the meantime, you will see more resignations in pressure throughout today for the prime minister to resign. tom: who goes to him, as they did with howard dean and others with president nixon? who goes to him and says, enough? jonathan: that is the difficult part of this, lizzy, who is that person? lizzy: oh, i don't think it will be joe biden. but i just want to say about the difference between starmer and corbyn, starmer seem similar to boris johnson in saying that they want to have tax cuts and make brexit work, he needs to

create a gap between himself and boris johnson. jonathan: you can continue watching on bloomberg.com. we need to talk about the market, futures down .1, and big things with foreign exchange. can you get used to the euro-dollar? i-99 handle for crude -- a 99 handle for crude. from new york city this morning, good morning, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: this market was really volatile yesterday, erasing those losses on the s&p 500. soccer this morning. looking ahead to earnings season, kicks off next week with jp morgan, july 14. here is the bond market story. to send tens, the difference is negative a couple basis once. 2.80 on the 10 year.

that turned around the last time i looked. your 2-year is higher than your 10 year. 24 hours ago that was not the case. we have some curbing version in a way that we have not seen for a while. tom: i would emphasize on this jobs week that the markets are really dynamic and linked to fixed income. 107 dxy and sterling getting close to printing 1.18. it is very dynamic. jonathan: looking ahead to payrolls, recession calls. you ultimately have a labor market around 3.5% unemployment, jobs growth of 250 every month. whether that decelerates, that is what people are looking for. is it a recession if you get to

consecutive quarters and negative growth but a labor market that looks like this one? tom: it is so important, jobs day, if i get out the famous surveillance chart, nonfarm payrolls 265,000. that is a boom payroll in a normal economy. jonathan: in a normal economy. nothing normal about the past couple of years. let's talk about what is developing over in europe. the spread between the italian 10 year and the german 10 year and the german 10-year is still trading inside 200 basis points. here is the bad news for the ecb. euro-dollar, 1.01. this is the problem that kid jukes has with european policy union. they do not trust this bond

market to stand on its own two feet. if rate differentials are going to bite, you need some of this to come through the bond market. from an fx perspective it is very difficult to understand the transmission policy from the ecb into the bond market, ultimately into foreign-exchange. tom: they are making it up as they go. it is like the way that kailey doesn't stocks, she makes it up as she goes. jonathan: i would like to think that she understands stocks a lot of bit more. kailey: i would like to think so, too. jonathan: it is a lot to discuss. 1.01 on the euro. we are getting closer. let's say hello to kaylee. kailey: a lot of the movements have to do with amazon reaching a 15% stake in grubhub.

amazon will offer a year membership to grubhub for those who are members of prime. amazon stock is down .4%, but a much bigger move for competitors. doordash down 8%, uber is down 3.4%. we have talked a lot about fiat currencies, we have not talked about cryptocurrencies. bitdog is a little bit lower, crypto names are moving lower. off 80% year to date. riot blockchain down 2%. that is all the crypto talk for today, i promise. tom: i know that you'll be doing that on thursday getting ready for tuesday. kelsey berro joins us now, fixed income portfolio manager at jp morgan.

i believe it is price up, yield down. with inflation coming in, how will bonds react, where is the opportunity to go from nine percent to 7% inflation? kelsey: there has been incredible volatility in the inflation markets, bond markets recently. there has been a repricing of inflation, particularly when you look at the one-year inflation swaps. it has erased all of that inflation risk premium that cut baked into the market as a result of the invasion of ukraine, all of the upside inflation we've been talking for half a year. when we are trying to debate right now is, is this a true signal that inflation will disallow rate? or will the fed need to continue to press? the data they are looking at is not showing any signals yet that

they need to stop hiking rates. tom: how do you look at the labor economy? he hasn't buried on page seven where he talks about the labor dynamics of the united states. how do you fold that question into what yield and price will do? kelsey: labor market is still very strong. you have gdp which is weak. the atlanta fed is tracking at -2%. a lot of that is not necessarily organically driven. there is a 200 basis point contraction in that forecast from inventories. what we look at in terms of are we in a recession, are we seeing unemployment rise, is nominal income falling? neither of those are following -- happening. to get unemployment to rise, you will need to see a material

deceleration in payrolls grow. to get back to 4% by the end of the year, you would need 15,000 jobs lost on average for the next seven months to get there. we are not in that environment yet. jobless claims is what we are watching to see if it is ticking up. tom: never in my career have we hoped for job loss. jonathan: let's be clear, i'm not sure that kelsey is hoping for that, i am not in you are not, but when you look at things, there is a believe that that is what they are trying to engineer. there will be consequences. this is how this works, kelsey. we are trying to understand how far they are willing to push it, what business the two-year has at 2.82 if the fed keeps on hiking? kelsey: the two-year is inverted to what the market thinks the fed funds rate will be in three months time. the market is pushing the fed,

how much longer is this right hiking cycle going to last? in our view, it will last a bit longer. it is not yet time for the fed to say they have accomplished their mission. even with inflation expectations and the markets declining. we expect the fed will hike basis points -- 75 basis points in july, and that another 50. right now the market is not even pressing it a full rate hike in december. we think the market is going a bit overshot in terms of the two-year yield. it should be going higher. kailey: i heard something similar from priya misra today saying that inflation will be the problem, will stick around, so expect the fed to be more aggressive. that leads to a yield curve that is even more deeply inverted. are you in the same camp? kelsey: we have been expecting the yield curve to invert.

different parts have been inverting at different times. right now we are seeing the belly lead in the inversion. the five to 10 year point is what is leading. the market is testing the fed, saying can you really go through with this, particularly as the growth signals are decelerating? we noticed the growth data that has been released recently is showing more of a deceleration that people thought. that third revision to q1 gdp, nobody looks at that. it showed a meaningful deceleration in services spending. we know the consumer is the primary engine of growth. they are not on as strong footing as we originally anticipated. jonathan: i don't remember when we traded on expectations of inflation. it is all confusing to me. final question.

high yield spreads have been widening out for five sessions. you and bob michele were closely. i want to understand from you and the team, has that got interesting for you? kelsey: it is a bit of a no man's land. spreads are too narrow if we spent a full-blown recession, but probably too wide if we are going to escape recession. in the long term, we think fundamentals in the high-yield market are actually better than they have been going into previous recessions. think about defaults. they peeked around 10% in the last, the great financial crisis. we don't think they will peak at nearly as high a rate. 600 basis point on spread, that is pricing in a 35% recovery rate. actually, a lot is priced in. the market is considering a modest amount of default risk, but unfortunately, the markets

tend to overshoot. it is possible to get that spread widening going beyond what we think is probably justified based on our default expectations in the next downturn. tom: thank you so much. really appreciate it. a tweet that is so poignant, i need you to translate for me. from birmingham, which is north, i guess. carrie sandberg is a member of parliament. i believe he is on the side of the prime minister. he tells the prime minister, "there is nothing for him to do other than take responsibility and resign." these are brutal statements. jonathan: birmingham. in the midlands. they would take offense. midlands.

futures are negative. i will teach you the exit in the commercial break. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. in the u.k., boris johnson is fighting to stay in power after ministers jumped ship. rishi sunak and savage avid are out. their resignations came after johnson apologized for the latest scandal, one involving allegations of sexual misconduct against a conservative member of parliament. in highland park, illinois, authorities have charged the subject in a shooting at the fourth of july parade seven counts of first-degree murder. they say dozens more charters will be filed in the coming days.

if convicted, he could be convicted to life in prison without parole. illinois no longer has the death penalty. the u.s. says iran is not serious about returning to the international nuclear record. state department cites a lack of forward momentum and says iran keeps on raising extraneous demands. the crypto crash has claimed another victim. the firm cites market volatility and the collapse of the hedge fund it had lighted money to. last year they secured a $485 million credit line from alameda research. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

>> even in a pretty deep recession, i don't see oil prices going below $80, maybe $90. nobody can raise production very much. if russia were to do two or three given how the market is, you could pick a number. jonathan: that was the chief oil analyst at energy aspects. good morning. the equity market is a bit softer, down .4% on the s&p. euro-dollar with a 1.01 handle. briefly in the last 24 hours, 99 handle on crude.

edward morse got things going from citi. in a recession scenario we would see oil prices falling to 65 by year-end, potentially 45 by the end of 23. absent intervention by opec-plus and decline in investment. just ahead of that big move from yesterday. tom: joining us now is edward morse, global head of commodities research at citigroup. taking the global reach of our oil politics and cross over to the microeconomics. i don't want to talk about supply and demand. the measurement of global recession against the marginal emerging market demand, em, and

pacific rim coming out of covid. those are two titanic forces. who will win? edward: i think it is the macro environment that wins. we do not see the burgeoning demand coming out of china. there is a return, to be sure, but while china was cutting off a million barrels a day in real demand, they were importing a record amount. they were stockpiling. that had an impact on the global market. we had our inventory drawing, they were building. i don't see the international implications of a chinese recovery having much of an impact on the global setting. tom: if that is the case, what is the dynamic that drives oil down to 90? what is the single distinction right now that drives us to that?

edward: i don't know if there is a single distinction, i think it is supply and demand. there is another view of supply that we are not talking about. we see over 2 million barrels a day of western hemisphere growth, including 1.3 million this year from the united states. canada will be up 300,000 barrels a day. mexico, 100. brazil, a couple hundred. argentina is up more than people thought. venezuela is also up. if you look closely at supply, it is growing and accelerating, as we move from here to the end of december. jonathan: your recession work on a ton of attention in the last couple of days. can you explain what that word means to you, what kind of numbers get us down to 45 by the end of 23, 65 by year-end? edward: it is really a drag on

the demand side. almost everyone has reduced their demand expectations for the year. we are at the 2.5 million barrel a day level. that is similar to where the eia are. demand is simply not growing on an empirical basis to the degree that people expected. we have seen u.s. demand is down. yesterday, somebody at bloomberg saw demand as low as it was in 2014. we think it has to go back to 2012 to see the levels that we are now seeing when it comes to transport fuels. if the movement will be anywhere, it will be downward. there is no evidence we will see this summer surging driving and demand. prices are too high, as it was in 2012.

looking at global gdp from the perspective of one of the countries growing the fastest and has the most robust growth, the demand is not there as people thought. kailey: if it is not an outright recession, growth going back to trend, how does that change the demand picture? what are we talking about if it is not 65? edward: just our base case. we still have a session at lower than 50%, but we think oil will go down to 85. that is looking at a purely supply demand basis. looking at what the headwinds and talents have been. a lot of tailwinds underline where prices have been. we don't know what the summer weather will be. it could be a very volatile period of time. but we are looking at a supply demand balance that has seen inventory built from here to the end of the year. that is based on a purely

empirical analysis of where we peaked, 95% probability of supply. we don't know what will happen to iranian supply, russian supply, but so far russian exports into the market were higher than anticipated, higher than the historical trend from a year ago. jonathan: thanks for giving us some of your time this morning. a timely conversation after briefly looking at a 99 handle on oil. that market board, there are some new numbers i'm struggling to get used to, and i know that you are, too. tom: we can go from brent crude down to 104 over the last couple of days. gold, as well. i want to know about their unraveling of em. the elephant in the room, japan

has not moved. the yen is not weaker like everything else. jonathan: something that is moving. 1.1819 on sterling. 1.0185 euro-dollar. the euro and pound sterling are in a world of trouble the last couple of days. this is the problem right now. if you are a central bank, i am trying to work out whether rate hikes are currency positive or negative. i don't know. tom: if you don't know the answer on economics exam, always write down the word ambiguity. you will get have a point. christine lagarde with her optionality. i would suggest currency

weakening lessons degree of freedom for phd is trying to gain the future. jonathan: it is tough. what is the pass-through going to be into the bond market if they want this anti-fragmentation talk? tom: ferro is hitting the button here because he knows where we are. fragmentation. if you are in italy with a gorgeous view, lisa is in crete. i am in new york. that is fragmentation.

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>> anything -- >> there are still concerns ahead. the market wants to center on the idea that growth is slowing. >> we are looking for a notable slowdown. >>