tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg July 10, 2022 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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haslinda: you are watching daybreak asia coming at you live. kathleen: top stories, a cautious opening ahead with fresh worries about covert curves in china set to wait on sentiment. president biden thing his administration is awaiting action as he gets set to speak again with xi jinping. >> japan's coalition expands its upper house majority two days after shinzo abe's assassination. >> more now from the open in japan, korea and australia. next across the board. on the one time, deliberating the u.s. jobs report we got on friday. certainly those strong numbers are setting the fed up for a
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supersized hike moving forward. in the currency space, dollar trading mixed against its piers this morning, but we are keeping an eye on the yen near its weakest around recent weeks at the low of 137. we are also as well keeping an eye because we've got those upper house elections at the weekend as well. taking more seats than first thought and that is being interpreted as a positive or markets. the other major factors for traders as well as what we are seeing in china. we can take a look at the inflation data we got at the weekend. we saw an acceleration in cpi if you bring up the chart. we saw it being driven high by energy and pork costs as well. in the underlying space, demand still continuing to look weak. kathleen, it is about what you're seeing in the covid space because shanghai reported its first case of the omicron subvariant ba.5 and it is being seen in other cities, including
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beijing, so that this -- the risks of lockdowns are weighing heavily. katleen: clearly, the impact of that stronger than forecast jobs report the enforcing that the federal reserve is going to do another 75 basis point rate hike. did not weigh on stocks although it was a mixed close. the nasdaq, which is off, as well as the s&p 500, indicating weaknesses as asian trading gets into gear for the week. the nasdaq was at nearly 5% last week. people are buying big tech again. coming away from energy as oil hit $100 a barrel. west texas intermediate is down more than one half percent. there is this concern about global recession, there are concerns about what is going on with europe, gas getting cut off potentially from russia. but most likely one of the things people look at a lot is the bond market. right now the 10 year note yield in the futures market is unchanged, but the tenure closed
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at three point 10%. the two-year at one point was up 13 or 14 basis points. it ended around 3.14%. this is the question, how rising yields, how the fed is going to keep raising rates. worries about a recession versus let's see what corporate earnings are this week. to get a real read on how this is affecting big companies. those of the counterforce is hitting the stock market right now. haidi: so many cattle are forces. let's -- so many counterforce's. let's get the latest on numbers and market action. let's bring in bloomberg's strand filled -- strategist markland cranfield as well as our tokyo euro chief. what are we looking to drive risk assets? they are inflation proof from the u.s. in the daily dump from china will be key. mark: certainly those two are the major focus, but in terms of
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global risks, it is hard to look beyond u.s. inflation numbers, particularly considering we've had some false alarms on when those cpi numbers will peak in the forecast again this week. a slight increase, but the way that traders are positioning, they are reducing short bets on the 10 year contracts in the latest data. again, they have produced short exposures slightly, although they increased about exposure in the five-year. so traders appear to be leaning more toward the recession story. they are looking for more inversion in the treasury's curve, so that is certainly something which will play out further. we can expect somewhat thing around in the treasury curve. if you look at the way the market is fully priced as kathleen was saying for another large increase by the federal reserve. if there is a downside surprise on cpi, that is probably where we get the biggest market reaction. for now they seem to be
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convinced that they are erring on the side that cpi has not quite peak. we will get possibly even a 9% print this week, so certainly there is a lot at stake with the cpi data. if it is a below forecast, that is where we are likely to get the biggest reaction. haidi: obviously if there is an unrolling of chinese tariffs, that would be positive for markets. given that we still have the chip wars happening with asml then, what is the latest when it comes to what the white house is saying about the rollback of carrots? jodi: we heard from president biden today, speaking in delaware to reporters from his vacation home. he basically said u.s. is considering lifting those tariffs or relaxing some of those tariffs. there had been a lot of talk in recent weeks that the u.s. would do this. the u.s. is considering although we heard from the commerce secretary on sunday and talk shows today that this would be
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coming and coming weeks. though she said not to expect a significant incline -- decline in inflationary pressures as a result. there is a tension within the administration on whether to lift tariffs. some like janet yellen, who sat on bloomberg news and television -- who said on bloomberg news that she wants the trade representative to provide leverage against china. >> another big question, the secretary of state antony blinken's message to his chinese counterpart over the weekend, how powerful was it? jodi: they had a five hour discussion with the chinese foreign minister on the sidelines at the g20 foreign ministers meeting in bali. basically the message was we want our leaders, president biden and president xi jinping, to meet in coming weeks. and they hope that this will happen, even amid tensions over all kinds of issues.
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the u.s. has been particularly critical of china on its support of the ukrainian warm and russia's invasion of ukraine. and also issues like what is happening in the taiwan strait. but they were talking very seriously about having their leaders meet they say in coming weeks. >> so i want to turn to you now on shinzo abe's assassination. the impact it had on japan's upper house election. i can understand of the people of japan were shocked and saddened, but did it actually impact the result and will it have an impact down the road? kana: so it seems to have some impact on some of the constituencies, people had a simple the boat. there were -- people had a sympathy vote. there were comments from world leaders, which was in indication
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of how impactful he was on the global stage and that may have had emotional impact on some of the voters. that said, the result did not seem too far off from some of the projections that were made before the shooting took place. but when you look at turnout, it was a little bit higher than the 2019 house election and before it was projected to be the lowest ever, so it seemed more people did turn out for the vote. haidi: amongst all things, abe it be remembered for abenomics, and an attempt to reprogram japan's micro economy. what is the legacy there? do we expect any impact or changes or just continuity when it comes to broader markets and the economy? kana: one analyst said the ldp
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win and possible stability over the next few years because she does not require bylaw to call another election for three years, how that would be positive for japan's economy. in the earlier days he spooked markets. he talked about raising capital gains tax, regulation and buybacks. but that has changed a bit according to analysts, he has become more business focused in recent months. he has talked about pushing people's savings into investment, more money going into startups and venture capital. so overall, it may be positive for the economy. but abe was very influential. he was leading the biggest faction in the party, so we are yet to see how that is going to play out. whether they're going to be able to consolidate power or if he is going to struggle with the change in the balance. haidi: bloomberg's live strategist mark cranfield, jodi
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scheider and tokyo bureau chief kana. let's get you the first word news headlines this hour. the speaker of sri lanka's parliament says the president will step down this week after months of protests over fuel shortages, surging prices and financial mismanagement. the president fled on saturday to an undisclosed location shortly before demonstrators stormed his official seaside residence. inflation has been set to hit 70% with the imf saying they will continue discussions on a loan program. shanghai has reported its first case of the highly infectious ba.5 omicron subvariants. the financial hub will step up testing measures with residents in at least nine districts required to be screened twice this week. officials are warning of high risks as the growing outbreak in the city raises fears of a return to lockdown. the city recorded 57 infections on saturday. u.k. foreign secretary is the latest to join the race to replace boris johnson as prime
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ministers she joins candidates include former health minister and jeremy hunt. both have tax cuts at the heart of their campaign. the issue is a key one for the conservative he party, a party who will ultimately choose their new leader. the trade minister is also in the running. bloomberg has learned that twitter has hired a top new merger law form -- law firm as it sues elon musk. they aim to file suit in delaware. earlier this week the billionaire announced plans on friday to drop his $44 billion takeover bid for twitter. elon musk alleges the network made misleading representations over the number of spam bots. those are your first word headlines. katleen: still ahead, we take a look at the legacy of former japanese prime minister shinzo abe. temple university's robert did jericho joins us later. and before that, global markets continue to be skeptical of any recovery in emerging markets.
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>> this was a strong employment report. >> it is a solid report. >> i have one disappointment. >> the lack of an increase in participation. >> we need labor force participation to go up. >> the fed is going to have to do more. >> interest rates are considerably below where they are going to need to be. >> today's number gives them the green light to do a 75 basis
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point rate hike in july. >> the fed is going to do 75. >> definitely 75 is in the cards. >> very likely go 75 basis points in the next meeting. >> i think they will get a 50 done in september. >> 50 in september. >> they're going to hike between now and september. >> they are going to have to slow down. >> then think about slowing down the pace after that. katleen: some of our bloomberg tv guests reacting to the u.s. jobs report. so inflation both data again in focus this week. we will also get a couple of key central-bank decisions. and india in the united states will replace -- release inflation reports. in the asian pacific, the reserve bank is likely to deliver another big rate hike and we could get the first half-point move ever from the bank of korea. bloomberg china is at the top of the economic addenda over the coming days. gdp data out friday expected to
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show a contraction in the second quarter activity readings fortune should show the green shoots of recovery. we will get retail sales and credit numbers, which may signal government spending is kicking into gear. so let's discuss the market indications with senior asset strategist at senior street market. the jobs report, 75 basis point rate hike, inflation numbers are going to be enforced. bonds sold off again on friday, stocks do not seem to know where to go ahead of earnings. what is the key takeaway of the report on jobs, for example, for investors right now? dan: i think that key takeaway on jobs is that this is going to be difficult for the fed. they have got to be frustrated here. if we just look at the math, i hear a lot of people saying we got to get participation rate up. yeah, it is true, but where is that rate going to come from?
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there was this case that it was immigration based, that covid had restricted immigration. actually, the data is showing more and more labor forces recovered strongly. it is really the one group of people that is not participating is the 55 plus. and that is a very difficult group to get back to work in large numbers. you would have to get a participation rate of something like 45% to get unemployment up to where the fed wants, let's say for employment at 5%. that is 1948 numbers, it is not going to happen. which means that if we need to get to those kind of numbers for the fed, it means a really steady job losses that they would have to orchestrate with higher rates. something to the tune of 185,000 a month for a year. it is going to be some mix of that, but the takeaway is this is going to be hard and expect rates higher from here. katleen: people everywhere want
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to know i think when this u.s. stock market selloff stops. because it seems to be reverberating in so many ways. are we getting closer to the bottom? again with the supposition that the fed is bound and determined to get inflation down. and if they slow the economy down, to the extent of causing a recession, they may need to do so. dan: yeah, the key things we need to remember, their mandate is stable prices and full employment. and again, they thankful employment is more like 5% still, they have a long way to go. we will see liquidity withdrawal , especially with quantitative tightening still in the mix here. and as they moved rates higher, there is going to be the expectation that growth rose over. so with liquidity coming out means pressure on market multiples and growth rolling over in the potential hit to earnings is still in our future. that means we are not at the bottom yet and we should expect
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another -- a difficult second half ahead of us until we get some kind of view that this is actually working and that they have gotten a price rise under control. haidi: the patching us -- there will be some patches, even if it is patching when it comes to growth in emerging markets. are you skeptical of that, even if we are potentially getting more stimulus out of china? dan: i am, i am. i think the credit story in china will help the commodities story elsewhere. i think that is the way you should look at this. i do not think it is going to help necessarily chinese equities anytime soon. we should be much more worried about covid policy in china and what that means for domestic growth and spending. for emerging markets, look, for latin america especially, they have tried very hard to get
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ahead of the fed, to get ahead of inflation, to be early hawkish. it still did not really work. the capital flows that we saw as the expectations of u.s. rates arise were pretty strong and inflation is still rising. and they are already at pretty high levels of overnight rates in many latin american countries. they will have to start to think about this growth inflation rate conundrum that they have and emerging markets really is a play. it relies on the economy to avoid poverty. and it is going to be politically a very difficult story to handle. e.m. asia of course still going to be hamstrung a little bit by supply chain issues in the value chain. haidi: you look at the political difficulties and it is an understatement when you take a look at sri lanka. is that something that markets should be focusing on when it
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comes to potentially room for more unraveling of this kind? dan: you know, i have looked at this a bit. i think for now, the frontier stories that we are seeing in the emerging markets, i think that they are relatively idiosyncratic at this point. that does not mean that that kind of behavior could not spread, but we have got a stark move left in latin america across most economies. and we have an election ahead of us in brazil. and new governments, which are going to have to deal with what it means to try to put their platforms in place, especially if they want to focus less on energy sales in a time where that is actually what is saving the market. so it is going to be quite a tell. haidi: always good to have you with us, dan.
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daniel, senior marketing strategist. coming up next on daybreak asia, the battle is brewing between the world's richest person in one of the world's biggest social networks over the collapse of the multibillion-dollar deal. yes, we are talking about an update from elon musk versus twitter next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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katleen: so now this on twitter. bloomberg has learned that the social media company has hired a heavyweight law firm as it races to sue elon musk for moving down his takeover. su keenan joins us. so, a big legal battle. you've covered legal issues for a long time. i don't know. i would not bet on elon musk ever. su: we do know that elon musk has been signaling for some time
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that he was prepared to pull the deal and finally did so on a friday filing, twitter within minutes making clear that it would hold his feet to the fire in terms of enforcing the deal. and people close to the matter told bloomberg twitter has hired a prominent law firm and aims to file a suit against elon musk. earlier this week in delaware, that is a corporate home of more than half of u.s. public companies, including twitter. business law experts or chancellors hear cases without juries and this is a strategically connected firm, because two of the top lawyers are former chancellors. elon musk meanwhile has engaged the same firm that handled his successful defense against deep defamation claim in 2019 and an ongoing shareholder lawsuit regarding tesla. monday will be the first opportunity for u.s. investors to react in open trading. elon musk file those papers after the close of training
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friday, scrapping the $44 billion deal and stock is expected to drop. katleen: as you know, elon musk was in the sun valley conference and was asked questions about this. he managed to just go around them and he did not really address them. su: he talked about the future of mars. we do know that with the regulatory filing, he brought up the issue he has brought up before of lots. he said twitter provided user data but did not provide access to just how prevalent the bots are. his decision to walk away again not unexpected and twitter does plan to enforce the deal. twitter and a tough spot if they lose the suit, stock will freefall. if it wins, the company will be run by an unpredictable and lupton's owner. -- reluctant owner. many people are going to stay
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tuned. haidi: let's get you a quick check of business flash headlines we are following. leaked documents reportedly showed that uber tried to lobby politicians including the french politician, emmanuel macron. as part of its global push between 2013 and 2017. the so-called files have a hundred to 4000 documents from one cofounder travis was ceo. in a statement, they did not deny allegations but focused on how much it has changed since then. china's antitrust watchdog has find companies including alibaba group and tencent for improperly group - [announcer] imagineperly enforhaving fuller, thicker,
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>> we are in a crypto winner, so again that could be when you dabble. i would not allocate my portfolio to it, but i am comfortable taking smaller positions. >> volatility is accession, it is affecting currencies. it can have a place in that portfolio. notwithstanding what i said it is difficult to predict. >> we stumbled to follow a valuation model. we have always advised our clients or investors to be careful. >> it is a risk asset, rather than a stored value. and it is in some sense a bet on the business model that is very much yet to be proven. >> my suspicion is that this is going to stay and i think that as i said, super talented ambitious people. haidi: our guests weighing in on
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crypto. let's get to annabelle for a look at how bitcoin is failing. -- is faring. annabelle: the sentiment we heard from our guest, over the course of the week, we saw bitcoin gaining. the best week in fact that we have seen since march. with the broader risk on the tone we saw in markets across the week, global shares adding to gains. in weekend action if you take a look at the fullscreen, we saw declines moving into weekend trading and looking at the results of that survey there, with our team, you can take a look at what would be the next risk factor for markets. most respondents saying bitcoin tumbling to around 10,000, so a 50% drop from where we are now, but something that has been called by some strategists that would prompt the next run of contagion across risk assets. 9% of our survey respondents say no risks of market contagion. taking a look at what we are seeing in the altcoins face as
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well because we have seen them performing better over the course of july, but you can see now, trading off as well. a theory of is one of the wadden's are watching. it has failed to break the 13 level so we are seeing the price now trading around $1167 per coin. kathleen? kathleen: u.k. markets, we returned to the overthrow of prime minister boris johnson. it could change in a flash. let's bring in chief rates correspondent for asia and live contributor garfield. so garfield, there has been a lot of -- there has been geopolitical forces that have pushed currencies around lately. what could happen to the pound and how could that reverberate through currency markets, if there is going to be more uncertainty over boris johnson? garfield: well in some ways the
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biggest days of the pound and the euro, the two are linked, is that there is an end to uncertainty about boris johnson and what that end brings. does that and bring earlier general election, which then would put a whole lot of potential outcomes on the plates? we could get -- most likely we would get a boost in spending from perhaps the conservatives as they head into an election attempting to retain power. and spending promises from the labour party if they were to gain power. a british public has suffered a lot under inflation and is eager for help him the government. all of those things could drive further declines in the pound and drive gilt yields up. there could be the potential that the negotiations for brexit could be on the table.
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could scottish return to the european union, break from the u.k. and raise its head. so that all depends on whether or not we get an actual earlier general election. if, it sounds like a big ask, but if we get an orderly transition of power so that conservatives stay in government and whoever ends up taking it over 10 bring some stability, that might help the pound. the big thing the pound faces, part of the difference is the most important thing to most currencies, what is going on with the fed. what is going on with the u.s. economy. what is going on with the global economy. haidi: what is going on with the bank of japan as well. the shock assassination of shinzo abe raising questions over how much abenomics has been completed. when it comes to boj, given that
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the second term will be ending. garfield: yeah, i mean, in the immediate, you know, wake of the tragedy, the ruling party has bolstered its standing in the upper house and elections that were held. and there is often what might be called some sympathy or empathy for a government in times like these, so that in fact, that might aid as it were corroded up for the moment in sticking with policy, even if the yen declines further than it already has. people might start to think the ruling party needs breathing room, because there is something more important than just the yen here, as it were, and those
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concerns. the other side to that is that it does create uncertainty and a sense of major regime shift, that things are open to changing rapidly. it is a shock to the political and social setting one something like this happens, so in the medium-term, that might well fend into a stronger narrative that it is time for the boj to move away from the endless commitment to qut, especially as this month, they are just about certain to go above 50% of the japanese government bond market and that is just going to keep scrutiny on whether it ends with the bond market. the boj is going to have to shift policy. this creates an undercurrent that it is time for some changes. haidi: our chief rates
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correspondent for asia, garfield reynolds. let's head to china, where shanghai has reported its first case of the ba.5 omicron subvariant, warning of eerie high risks amid fears of a return to its earlier lockdown. managing editor for asia joins us now. even with the broil up, we know that certain compounds continue to be locked down depending on the case situation there. so with something as contagious as the new variant, it is a threat to the covid zero strategy. emma: yeah, i mean, it is just another challenge really that is sticking to -- that sticking to a zero-tolerance approach is always going to face. you are not able to as easily eradicate the virus as you were in the first year of the pandemic. with these more contagious, more immune of a sieve some arians of the omicron variant, ba.5 in the latest among them, you are going to see this constant the back
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loop in china, as long as they continue to perceive covid zero cases researching, cases reappearing, and then restrictions coming down again. what you are seeing in shanghai, not quite a lockdown, but nine districts, plus a couple of others, that have seen cases are being ordered into two rounds of mass testing. definitely raising fears that there could be more to come, given the increased that we have seen in the case is you have got. above 50 from -- floating around 0, 2 cases, not that many for a couple of weeks before that. so that is significant uptake in shanghai. but then you got other parts of china as well that are seeing flare ups and art reacting in that sort of zero-tolerance way, mass testing, locking down certain apartment blocks or residential areas. this is what we are going to see as long as they continue with covid zero. in another blow for macau.
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haidi: which we know was struggling with the lack of visitors with border closures and covid zero, but now we are seeing the shutdown as well. emma: they are trying to stave it off for a number of weeks, given how important more than 80% of the economy the casino industry is, but those cases have been very stubborn. the outbreak has not gone away in macau, so they have gone into that last resort and have shut back down the casinos for the week. and then, they will review the situation as to whether they will reopen them again, if the outbreak is under control. but we are talking of near a hundred cases, which in covid zero, is a lot. katleen: and that was bloomberg's emma o'brien. now, here is the first word news. french finance minister bruno le maire says europe must prepare for russia to shut off gas surprise in retaliation for sanctions france is trying to
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avoid. they are trying to avoid power shortages in a challenging environment. you should be careful with energy consumption while building up gas stockpiles. they will meet later this month to discuss contingency plans. >> we have to be prepared to all options. that is the responsibility of all politicians, to take into account the geopolitical situation. we have to take into account that gas from russia is one of the key options. katleen: donald trump's former advisor steve bannon has agreed to testify with the house committee investigating the capitol riot's. that is after the former president waived his previous claim of executive privilege that set to block the testimony. steve bannon is among the advisers who pressed donald trump to block the counting of the electoral college votes at the capital on january 6 last year. new zealand prime minister will attend a meeting of pacific island leaders in fiji this
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week. it comes days after a call for regional cooperation to counter china. it follows a report that they withdrawn from the form after being sidelined on issues. the office says she plans to make announcements on the climate and deed projects. novak djokovic running his first -- winning his title defeating the men's singles. it was the first final for the temperamental australian and 32nd for novak djokovic. he becomes only a fourth man to notch four straight victories at wimbledon. and those are the first word headlines. haidi: coming up next, we take a look at the life and legacy of japan's longest-serving prime minister, shinzo abe. also robert joins us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: ahead on daybreak asia, a look at the key offense in terms of what we are watching. the coalition has expanded its majority in an upper house election held two days after the assassination of the former leader shinzo abe. sec. of stepping by tokyo on his way back, to offer condolences. it's a sign of the importance that the u.s. plays in its close relations with japan, who will be getting earnings from japanese companies, including pharmaceuticals as well as --.
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\ katleen: japanese markets will open the top of the next hour. were going to take a look at the japanese futures, the yen futures and more. we can see that the yen is at 136 point 33, dollar-yen that is. so it looks like a little bit more weakness in the yen. it was a mid state. nikkei futures pointing to interest after the u.s. had a mixed day today. it was a decline after strong jobs numbers and you can see that the jj be futures are pointing lower in price today. so economics is where we return. former prime minister last friday after being shot. his program continues to ripple through markets. companies lost record profits and unemployment hit record lows. the deflation cycle was halted. on the other side, the government inherited a mountain of debt and that boj was around half the size of the market.
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former treasury secretary larry summers says the world is now facing the risk of stagflation and we could learn something from abenomics. larry: it was a success by the standards of what had come before, but it was not a full admission -- mission accomplished, in terms of what was happening in japan. but i think it will be remembered as one of the more aggressive and successful reprogramming's of macroeconomic strategy that we have seen in a long time. haidi: let's talk about this with our next guest, robert, the cofounder of the abe legacy and cofounder of temple university's contemporary asian studies. he joins us from tokyo. robert, great to have you with us. and larry summers also called abenomics an aggressive macroeconomic reprogramming of sorts. my question is, it is not
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completed rather. and never got off the ground, we never got a second term in the spring of 2023. so there is room for it to be carried out in full in the way that shinzo abe imagined it. robert: it is a little complex now, because with the weakening of the yen, with the increase in global inflation, with the war in ukraine, the situation is extremely different. on top of that is what is probably going to continue to be a partial decoupling from china, so the economic situation at the prime minister faces today is very different than the one that abe shinzo was faced with when he became prime minister 10 years ago. haidi: also complex of course are shinzo abe has been lauded as a statesman who brought regional -- regional leaders together and really rebuild the strength of the relationship
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with the u.s. japan alliance. mixed is his reinterpretation of the reaction we have seen from beijing for example. how do you rate the geopolitical and diplomatic aspect of what he tried to do? robert: i think his contribution to japan and the world is more limited than what a lot of commentators site. on the plus side, he took some marginal measures to improve japan's resources allocated to japanese. on the other hand, he failed to see how important the relationship with south korea was, so i think he gradually put japan a little bit more on the world stage. but that had been happening before, under previous prime ministers, and will probably continue. i think he had a marginal
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impact. katleen: we had a couple of pieces from our bloomberg team in asia, one of them, they say that they believe abe's greatest achievement was forging a new asia. he talks about the person who kind of had this vision of indo pacific, a broad view of asia. the person who got the quad together, which is bringing major powers together and ultimately trying to have some asian block to counter china's growing power in the region. you do not seem to agree with that. robert: i think the development of relations with australia started before and was really more the development of u.s. and australian relations. the u.s. had started to pay more attention to india starting in the 1990's, so the quad is in addition to that, but it is not revolutionary. as we have seen of course in the
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war that vladimir putin is waging against ukraine, india is not on board with what are japanese, australian and u.s. policy toward russia. katleen: in terms of going back to abenomics and how far it did or did not get the japanese economy, haidi asked but we did not have a chance to play out further, i guess i'm interested in the extent to which it has been a policy, as larry summers said, that tried to reset everything. it dead and deflation, for example -- it did and deflation and got the economy out of the grim 90's. does japan need a new policy? is that what we have to learn or are there parts of that that he should hold on to? robert: i think there are probably parts he should hold onto. i think the main challenge japan faces is the population declining rapidly, aging.
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women are totally underused in the labor force, especially educated women. one it needs to think about immigration. these are issues that abe tried to address, but a lot more needs to be done to quote unquote revitalize japan. haidi: even after his private ministership finished he was a huge influence within, he was considered a kingmaker. what sort of a gap does that leave now? robert: it is a major advantage for the prime minister, because though he is prime minister, abe remained the power behind the throne. there were rumors that maybe he would even come back to the prime minister ship. so this gives prime minister a lot more leeway and removes one of the major obstacles to his having more influence within the party. haidi: of course with his new
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capitalism now dominating the economic strategy. robert, good to have you with us. the author of the abe legacy. i was just getting some breaking news when it comes to japan june money stock rising year on year, slightly higher than expectations at just over 3%. and money stocks rising 2%, a little higher than expectations. we are also getting quarterly, the month of may, weirs and contraction of 5.6%. worse than expectations and certainly a pullback from the previous gain of almost 11%. the year on year number four orders, 7.4%. still quite robust and better than expectations of 5.6%, but certainly also pulling back from the previous month. we saw almost 20% year on year gain there, kathleen. kathleen: impressive numbers. he can get more from this interview on tv available
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as it searches to sue elon musk. they filed suit in delaware earlier this week. elon musk unveiled his plan to drop his bid for twitter, alleging the social network made a misleading representation over the number of spam robots. ages conglomerate will join the adani group. they meet the streaming kit abilities of 5g and will provide a private network for businesses. nds private sector -- india's private-sector operators are also expected to be on the airwaves. the latest marvel movie, thor love and thunder topped box offices this weekend. it made 143 million dollars in its domestic opening. that is disney's second-best domestic debut this year and helps it shake off the poor performance of pixar comeau jedi
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far weaker debut than expected -- pixar which had a weaker debut than expect it. katleen: coming up next in this hour, covid is casting a cloud over up markets in asia. we will discuss that. market opens in sydney and tokyo are next. after a somewhat bumpy ride in u.s. stocks last week, we will be watching to see how the trend carries over into the tokyo trade today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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getting down to major market opens. a hotter inflation report expect this week, 75 basis point rate hikes. haidi: a big week not just by u.s. cpi, core inflation numbers out of china still being deciphered, but ahead of the big week of domestic activity numbers, gdp as well as expectations, potentially more details on china stimulus. let's get over there to annabelle. >> omicron cases in general are question mark on whether china can continue the growth process -- impetus into the second half. keeping a particular watch on short duration, because we did see a surge in yields following a strong jon grissom -- strong jobs report. a car start. in japan we have to vesting
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factors in play. we had upper house elections over the weekend brought up now. this is the south korea open. we have twin factors, the u.s. jobs report but the covid outbreak we were discussing in china, ending korea to mr. covid cases rising as well, so the government announcing it will release any changes to social distancing rules as soon as wednesday. the tech sector of focus as well. we have monetary net rotation into big tech and the u.s., the nasdaq inning over the past five sections but losing ground at the start of trade. let's move on to the open we have in australia. we are expecting the asx 200 moving to the downside at the start of trade, keeping a particular watch on the aussie dollar, cba saying we could be at the $0.65 cent level by the
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end of the year. rva following, but the covid outbreak in china we will continue to monitor. the open in japan, a strong start for the nikkei225. we had upper house elections in japan at the weekend. the ruling ldp taking more states -- proceeds that was projected. citigroup sank this is a positive. haidi: our next guest says china's recovery will be a dominant theme for the second half of the year. joining me is a ahead of equity research. you are constructive on china, a big shift in your strategy, but how much downside risk is covid zero? >> covid zero as been a stop-ago situation as far as china's policy is concerned. it would remain a concern.
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we do not expect a full lockdown, the kind of situation that revealed during the march to may period, because we think there are concerns about the unemployment rate reaching a historic high. it is prominent, front and center in policymakers' radar. we think gradual reopening in a calibrated fashion and more economic stimulus through fiscal and monetary measures would be the focus of policymaking in the second half of this year. haidi: what sectors in particular do you think would hedge against the stop-start nature of covid zero and the impact on the economy? >> two major themes we are playing in china are policy
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beneficiaries, high-end manufacturing and the banks catering to funding these areas. to that extent we have significant presence in soe banks, tech hardware companies, and also some of the electric vehicle manufacturers and the entire supply chain. that is the core team we are playing and china, but we have incrementally added to china commerce exposure. we feel the worst of domestic regulatory pressures are possibly behind us. kathleen: more broadly you are positive on some other areas of asia. one of them is korea where we are getting ready to see more aggressive rate hikes. another is india where there are questions about how much they
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will have to move their rates particularly when it comes to preventing capital outflows and bonds from getting yields pushed so i. how do you factor goes into the equation? >> as far as korea is concerned, no doubt a big chunk of the korean market, tech, hardware and semiconductors have faced the brunt of pressure. but we think apart from the pc and smartphone supply chain, there are other avenues of growth as far as memory and semiconductors are concerned. we are seeing increased demand from ai related applications, cloud, data centers and so on. the discussion by some of the semi conductor manufacturers underscores that. as a consequence of the interest rate increase korean banks will have net interest bargaining
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expansion. india is in a tricky area. there are a lot of capital outflows from for it institutions leading to the depreciation of the ruby -- rupee. it is reflected in the total quantity of freight traffic. in the case of india there are ways of playing that through private sector banks. there currency depreciation tailwind should be felt by i.t. service exporters over there. you need a reasonably sized pockets to play that market. kathleen: currency depreciation swings both ways, it can hurt consumers and help manufacturers. what about indonesia and thailand? that is also where you are overweight? >> indonesia is relatively
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simple, it has been the best-performing asian market and the only market that is delivered positive returns in a sea of red. as long as prices remain poignant -- buoyant, corporate earnings should continue to do better. in taiwan, the more nuanced exposure that we have, we think the last two quarters of the year, footfalls will increase. there are some policy related to electric vehicles. there are interesting pockets to play in thailand which we are making use of. kathleen: we are taking us across a nice tour of investing in asia. thank you to head of apac equity research.
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we are going to turn to annabelle for big market movers. >> checking in on tesla supplies and asia because we did just get the data out for tesla shipments from the shanghai plant in the month of june. 70,000 vehicles delivered in the month, double what we had a year ago and 145% higher than the month of may. most of these rising across the board with the exception of lg chem. it does highlight the benefits that we saw from shanghai reducing covid measures in that month but that will be a headwind moving forward. we can take a look at where we are seeing energy companies moving this morning and asia as well. we saw shanghai reporting its first case of b.a.5 over the
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weekend, that does follow what we have seen in other cities. a major headwind facing oil, we are seeing a dip in early trading, but so far major energy providers looking mixed. haidi: let's get first world headlines now this hour. macau shutting down casinos amidst other businesses for the week beginning on monday as the covid outbreak or since. it returns the gambling hub to tough it -- to its toughest pandemic restrictions. it lasted it's casinos two to tacoma in february 2020. then i as reported the first case of the highly infectious omicron b.a.5 subvariant. they will step up testing measures with presidents -- residents and nine districts being forced to be tested nine times a week. the city reported 57 new infections and saturday.
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u.k.'s foreign secretary if the latest to join the race to replace boris johnson as prime minister. she joins two candidates who have but tax cuts at the heart of their campaign. it is a key one for the conservative party core who will choose the new leader. the x chancellor and trade minister are also in the running. a french finance minister says europe must prepare for russia to shut off gas supplies to the retaliation or sanctions. he says francis trying to avoid power shortages in a challenging environment and should be careful with energy consumption. the eu will meet later this month to discuss winter contingency plans. >> we have to be prepared for all options. that is the responsibility of all politicians to take into account the geopolitical situation. we have to take into account
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getting gas from russia is one option. haidi: those are your first world headlines. kathleen: still ahead, and uptick of coronavirus cases intranet renewing fears of returns to lockdowns. our guest joins us later. japan's ruling party expanding its majority as the country mourns former premier shinzo abe. that is just ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> he was a visionary who had a vision and a sense of where she was going, where he wanted to take japan, the region, and then he was ruthless enough, tough enough and strategic enough to see it and executed through. in many ways everything we are dealing with today and still working through is within the structure and intellectual framework that he put on the table. >> it was a success by the standards of what had come before, but it was not a full mission accomplished in terms of what was happening in japan, but i think it will be remembered as
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one of the more aggressive and successful reprogrammings of macroeconomic strategy than we have seen in a long time. haidi: the former u.s. treasury secretary larry summers and u.s. ambassador to japan rahm emanuel on the legacy of the former prime minister's shinzo abe's economic policies. let's get into trading as we are 15 minutes into the trading session for tokyo equities. quite a bit of upside, a couple of sectors in the red but a cautious level of upside given we had fresh concerns about more covid curbs in china weighing on demand and casino shares expected to come under pressure when trading begins affecting macau with the shutting down of businesses. speaking of japan, the ruling coalition expanded its majority in upper house elections two
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days after the assassination of shinzo abe. our reporter joins us now. it was supposed to be a comfortable victory. we were speaking to robert in the last hour and he said given abe was such a kingmaker, such a strong influence within ldp, its absence is going to have a lot of impact on -- his absence is going to have a lot of impact on kishida. >> a strong victory for kishida is a great thing that will help consolidate his power. abe's absence means we do not have a leader for the largest faction within the ldp. there will be a power struggle over that and we do not know what kind of threat they might pose to kishida in the future. given the scale of the victory we are much less likely to see a
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return to the kind of revolving door of a new prime minister every year we have seen in the past. kathleen: go ahead bank -- go ahead. >> it is clear she needs to focus on the economy. that would be his top priority. while inflation in japan is less severe, price rises for basics are coming up faster than wages. it is a blow to low income. kathleen: is there anything in terms of the perpetrator, his reported motive that has come out over the past two or three days that has shed light on this ? the move of someone who basically -- how can i say it, sick, deranged, whatever. >> all of the reporting that is,
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as focused on this grudge the suspect is reported to have against a religious group. several reports saying his mother donated so much money to this group, she went bankrupt when he was a university student and direct the family's lives. that is the line that has come out at the moment, and that has focused a lot of attention on the various religious groups that do have political affiliations in japan at the moment. among those is the unification church. some reports are saying that is the organization in question, but we do not know for sure at the moment. kathleen: isabel reynolds. we went to look at breaking news important to south korea's economy, july first trade deficit coming in at $5.5
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billion. the first 10 days of the month daily average of exports up nearly 20% year-over-year, 19.7, looking strong. chip exports up 10.4%. appliances down 27.2%. there is a lack of consumer demand in many places as inflation rises so much the people cannot afford to buy stuff. when it comes to chip exports they have been in short supply, a lot of manufacturers eager to get there hands on chips for anything. a mixed bag but it's really on import and export it is a number looking good. let's move on to china, u.s. secretary of state antony blinken saying president biden and his chinese counterpart xi jinping are set to speak again in the coming weeks. let's bring in bloomberg's
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senior executive editor. what do you take away from blinken and talks with his chinese counterpart, and what could be on the table for biden and she -- xi when they talk? >> when secretary blinken met with this counterpart they talked for five hours, and there was discussion on the ongoing conflict between russia and ukraine. secretary blinken warned china about supporting russia. secretary blinken said china could not be neutral given the circumstances. he cited president xi jinping's call with vladimir putin as a sign of support for russia. we have the biden administration considering trump era tariffs on goods, potentially consumer goods, removing those, so that
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is something that will be discussed when president xi and president biden to have that call. haidi: while we look forward to the likelihood or possibility of the unrolling of these tariffs, we are seeing the chip war side of things continue. >> the tariffs -- the latest we have heard from president biden is that a decision is coming. we have heard from different parts of the administration such as the trade rep saying baby steps are a good bargaining chip for us, why should we take them away at? there are other parts of the administration noting how this could help the u.s. consumer dealing with high prices from inflation. removing tariffs would lower some of the prices on the shelves of consumer goods. haidi: john liu there.
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let's take a look at futures in europe, stoxx 50 futures looking like this. positive end for european stocks but that looks like it will be weaker. msci europe seeing modest gains. ftse 100 futures looking low. investors coming into the earnings season, that would give us impactful information about corporate resilience amid a flurry of headwinds. we are watching sterling as well as u.k. equities in particular given the potential for an early election is starting to creep into trader radar particularly as we have a number of contenders wanting to offer a spending spree of tax cuts. coming up, the sri lankan
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haidi: the sri lankan president rajapaksa has agreed to step down after months of persistent protest over fuel shortages and skyrocketing prices. the weekend saw him flee his official residence just before protesters broken occupying the rounds. -- grounds. extra neri images out of sri lanka over the weekend. where do we go from now? >> we have not heard from the president directly since the
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protesters storm to's house, swimming in his pool, eating his food. the next step is will he actually leave? he told a parliament speaker that he will go on wednesday. people want to see that this is made official. the protesters said we are not leaving the house until he is actually gone. after that happens there is a 30 day period where the parliament speaker would become the interim president. the opposition leaders have mentioned a lot. the party still holds a majority in parliament. it could be someone connected to him at the end of the day. the imf said they will continue the talks with the finance ministry and the bureaucrats. we could see a delay in the package, large questions remain
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about how sri lanka is going to get money to buy food and fuel, the big reasons we saw the dramatic events over the weekend. kathleen: you described a dire situation. they cannot get money from the imf get, inflation is expected to be 70% this year. people cannot get energy, it is a food crisis as well. in a situation like this is there anyone who steps up? where is the light at the end of the tunnel? >> they have been looking for abridged financing for months now, india, china, the world bank, edb, these are the institutions that could step up to deliver the kind of short-term financing sri lanka needs to shore up its reserves and you have -- to buy food and
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fuel. this is lasted -- has lasted for weeks and months. two weeks ago the government cut off tabs at petrol tanks. it just took weeks before protests boiled over again. he was surprised they could do this without any fuel. haidi: markets are bracing this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.
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our chief asian economics correspondent edna curran joins us now. what was the key takeaway for you after the jobs data? does it alleviate slowdown concerns? >> i think it does, pretty strong u.s. jobs number. a lot of people look at u.s. strategy. a job number that came out friday night suggests a strong labor market, robust wage gains, positions that cannot be filled, so i demand for labor and that will engage unemployment is at a record low. it speaks to the idea of a labor market with standing fed rate hikes that will lean on pressure for further wage gains going forward. the fed will have more to do. looking at the u.s. in terms of when will the fed rate hikes impact consumers, wage gains and
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everything else. it speaks to the fact that the fed is more work to do -- has more work to do. kathleen: wage gains slowed but there is still 5% year-over-year, double what they were before the pandemic area inflation is expected to be up 9% year-over-year. it has taken a while for fed tightening to with the jobs and demand and bringing down inflation. >> exactly. another key talking point looking at the u.s. is when will the u.s. hit peak inflation at how long will it take to come down? recent claims the u.s. was close to peak inflation but the numbers this week are expected to suggest another hi. regardless when it hits be, how long will it take for prices to start coming down? we know monetary dollars he --
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policy takes a few months so perhaps we will have to wait until late in this year to see the impact of fed rate hikes. if we are looking at a high for u.s. inflation the curve, u.s. prices continue to had -- head in the wrong direction and that is a threatening scenario. haidi: that just emboldens the fed? >> i think so. if you look at analyzing conditions of massive rate hikes, fed officials are talking about a 75 basis point rate hike. that was a shock a month ago. another aggressive move by the fed. when will that start to hit consumer confidence, the job market, and prices might take a few more months but at some point that will start showing up in the data.
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if the fed is going by 70 52 months in a row there will have to be -- 75 two months in a row there will have to be a reaction in the world. the harder the fed goes the more pressure will be for them to respond. kathleen: thank you so much. taking another look at u.s. jobs growth last month topping estimates, signaling the fed will stay pointed toward another jungle rate hike. the fed needs to take advantage of the strong labor market and take action on inflation immediately. >> this fed is going to do 75 basis points when it meets this month, and this fed needs to catch up. they are not just reacting, they are trying to catch up. 75 is the new 50.
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>> get we talk -- can we talk about how restrictive they need to get? >> they certainly are going to try to get to the restrictive level. i am worried that on the way there they made break something, and then you get the stop-go phenomenon that will be the worst possible outcome for the economy. we need to get it fixed out of the system. we should of taken more advantage last year of the strong economy but we need to take advantage of a strong labor market to get that done. otherwise with 11 inflation problem and growth problem next year. haidi: a bloomberg opinion columnist with our colleague jonathan ferro. let's take a look at orchids, factor in growth risk particularly when it comes to fx. annabelle: taking a look at this
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morning, what we are seeing in and and euro trading, yen losing ground against the greenback for a sixth straight session taking a specter below we have not seen in three weeks. the euro continuing to eye purity. our markets to miss been looking at the moves we have seen reflect fundamentals of these currencies whether there what we see in speculative positioning. traders have been building on bearish bets in these lines in orange and red. june levels compared to the declines that we have seen for the yen and the euro. what that suggests is that both of these regions, eurozone and japan both very energy reliant, net energy importers, sensitive to what we see going on in ukraine and any end to the war is likely to see the euro zone or japan we start by from russia, suggesting over the
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median -- medium to shorter-term we will see pressure on trade balances, both currencies set to remain under pressure. moving to a commodity link currency as well, the aussie dollar, we are continuing to see the currency under pressure. national australia bank saying this is susceptible to growth fears, a pro growth currency likely to sit here below the $0.68 level in the near-term. we are seeing declines in the metal space in particular. moves we are seeing for copper and iron ore reflecting headlines we are getting out of shanghai in particular reporting the first case of the omicron subvariant b.a.5 we have seen and other major cities as well including beijing and raising the risk of further covid lockdowns. without looking positive to start the week still reflecting
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growth of years. kathleen: let's take a look at headlines. japan is bullish and has expanded its oppressed majority two days after the assassination of its former leader shinzo abe. the liberal democratic party and its junior coalition partner one -- won 76 each. prime minister kishida's grip means he probably will not face another national election for three years. newsy limp prime minister are dern will attend a leadership meeting. it comes just days after a call for more regional cooperation against china. ardern's office says she plans to make announcements on climate eight. donald trump's former advisor steve bannon as agreed to testify to the house committee investigating the capitol riot's
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after the former president raised his devious claim of executive privilege that sought to block bannon's testimony. novak djokovic as won is 21st grand slam title. it was the first major final the temperamental australian and the 32nd for duke of which -- novak djokovic. those were your first word headlines. to the latest on twitter, bloomberg says the social media company as hired a law firm as it suits elon musk after dumping is $45 billion takeover. didn't you feel like musk was getting ready to back out? now the lawsuits start.
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>> the lawsuit starts in twitter is making it clear they will enforce the sale. they believe they have a good shot and bloomberg news has learned they have hired a heavyweight merger law firm. this firm aims to file a suit as early as monday, but in the early part of this coming week in delaware, it is where business law experts rule on cases without juries, and legal experts point out that in the case of a termination of a merger agreement the court rarely sides with the person trying to terminate. it is a strategically connected firm. we know musk is engaged a firm. this firm has worked with him in
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a review seat successful case in 2019 and also in an ongoing shareholder lawsuit. monday will be the first time u.s. investors will get to trade and react in open trading to this news on the terminated deals, stocks down significantly from the 54.20 offer price. it is expected to slide further as the monday opens. haidi: his presence was highly anticipated at sun valley, but he completely refused to answer any questions related to this. su: dodge city questions -- dodged any questions even though he was the marquis address paper -- address. people hung around to hear him
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speak. he mainly talked about life on mars in terms of the regulatory filing no surprise musk accused twitter of misrepresenting user data. he said twitter did not comply with contractual obligations on undefined information on the exact number of thoughts. it could be costly for him, legal experts believe he could be held to the terms of the deal unless he concludes twitter actively kept information from him. twitter in a tough spot. haidi: su keenan with the latest. getting roundup of the stories you need to go on today's edition of daybreak. get that on tv on the terminal. customize settings so you just get the news on industries and assets that matter to you.
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subvariant warning of virus -- high risk. our guest joins us now. with such a contagious subvariant this is proving to be under the challenge maintaining covid zero. >> it feels like conduct a. in shanghai and elsewhere in china we are seeing various restrictions as cases recur. shanghai, very interesting, two rounds of mass testing being put underway over the next couple of days. we have some compounds back in lockdown. the fear could go back into a citywide lockdown. my sense is they will try to avoid that rhetorically. we are likely to see more restrictions ahead given a much cases we have two over 60
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yesterday. kathleen: and the casino, their outbreak worsened. at a time people around the world are starting to drive again and they want to go to places like macau to gamble. >> a lot of the clients for macau have come from the mainland, which is pursuing the covid zero strategy as well. near to 100 cases seems to have tipped them over the edge. they tried to hold up for some time before closing the casinos. it does suggest they have succumbed to pressure from beijing to do more in macau to contain this outbreak. it remains to be seen whether it has to be extended a la shanghai. kathleen: emma o'brien with the
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latest on covid in shanghai, and shanghai is reporting 69 local cases for july 10. the numbers are still small but growing quickly. this is feeding into everything we were just tearing. let's move on to another ministry, consumer prices grew faster than expected in june driven by poor prices despite the covid zero strategy continuing to depress demand. let's bring in the china economist at natwest market. i am a poor clever -- pork lover. if i were in china i would be helping to drive up pork prices. what happens with cpi, one kind of food, one something that drives it but when you step back it looks tame. >> thank you for having me today. on china's inflation over the
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weekend you have rightly pointed out the food price rise was the main culprit behind rebounding in cpi inflation. the court inflation remains relatively subdued and mostly reflecting slack in domestic demand. even though china's cpi rebounded to 2.5%, it is below the government target. kathleen: it seems also to be the case that so far much bigger concerns for china is not prices rising too quickly outside of a few commodities like pork. it is much more about not enough growth, not enough demand in an economy far from hitting the 5.5% gdp growth target the government set last year. >> i think domestic demand
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slowing down is still the main concern because of ongoing covid lockdowns and recurring uncertainty weighing on the domestic services recovery. they are seeing more easing rolling out, especially on the fiscal side which will hopefully stabilize growth momentum in the second half. with the current set of moderate easing, it is not enough for the government to meet the annual growth target of 5.5%. the estimate gdp to fall in the range to just above 4%. haidi: we have been looking at this report suggesting we might get this $224 billion growth, local bonds as the new big push for stimulus. do you expect this to happen? how productive is this type of
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debt likely to be given that this is the old playbook? >> yes, i think the front loading of the local government 's special bond might be happening. this year's quota is said to be completely issued by the first half of this year. in order to ensure a continuation of fiscal stimulus, it is likely that some part of easing will be rolled out in addition to what has been announced earlier. it is the old playbook, and the government is cautious in rolling out that playbook aggressively. overall the size of fiscal easing remains relatively moderate, and it will be enough to stabilize growth in the next two quarters but not return to the old label of aggressively lifting up growth rates. haidi: the problem is even huge amounts of stimulus do little if you have covid zero restrictions
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or lockdowns. retailers do not have foot traffic. infrastructure projects cannot be built. how do you see that potentially being an issue as long as the strategy continues? >> covid zero remains the biggest risk to growth, but there will likely be some way out in terms of covid policy. we have heard some of the latest policy guidelines as well as affirmation. i would expect china to rollout more policies, to introduce more certainties over the strategy of leading with zero covid. even if it puts a lid on china's potential growth rate, certainties are the standard critical that could hopefully be rolled out for consumer confidence to be stabilized.
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the growth management. that would set them up as eventual successor to the ceo. kahn joined ubs in 2019. ubs has increased new loans to is what the clients to more than $25 billion per year. turned out much of has fined companies including alibaba and tencent for improper reporting of past transactions. the state ministrations said it imposed a 6 million yuan fine while alibaba was fined 2.5 million. kathleen: watching the markets in hong kong and mainland opening in about half an hour. let's talk about tencent, buying back 368,000 shares, doing so
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for the eighth straight session. someone and the sports maker to keep expanding the market. we are watching chip stocks including smic as the u.s. pulls afresh bid to restrict sales of chipmaking tools to china. in macau, the enclave will conduct multiple rounds of citywide tests to isolate all covid-19 cases as soon as possible. shares of galaxy and others are in focus as there casinos shut down for a week. in terms of the --what we are looking at here, gains across the board. people are taking a look. in this case, chinese markets
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year to date looking weak, interesting that comparison with citigroup and pine ridge suggesting they have become bullish on chinese stocks. coming up, we will close in on china ahead of its release of key market indicators with our guests and we will talk strategy. we look ahead to the start of trade in shanghai and shenzhen. this is bloomberg. ♪
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