>> underlying economy, the labor

market, there was obviously more tightening. >> i'm shocked that interest rates are as low as they are. >> what we are seeing globally is a huge warning from investors. >> the big market call is much more volatility going forward. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning everyone. global slowdown. thank you for joining goebel wall street -- global wall street and all of you interested in this international slowdown. everywhere we look, that is the signal. jonathan: loud and clear over the last few weeks. the worst year since 2001 and underpinning behind that move, and energy issue. perhaps that is already here. tom: we see it with the death of esg. we see it in rotterdam as well,

but what i want to focus on in the last hour, we have curve inversion, a 2/10 spread. jonathan: it has been developing over the last few weeks. some people think we could get very close to a nine handle on headline cpi. tom: there is headline cpi and then core cpi. lisa, how do you focus on the data and what will occur in fixed income? lisa: it does not seem like nuance will rule the day. year-over-year, it is one of the most extreme cases and predictions and that is the case, you can expect people to start to price in 275 basis point rate hikes and when you talk about the core on the margins, that could be used as an excuse.

the fed chair has come out and said this is not a time for nuance when you have inflation at the hottest paste -- pace. tom: i believe stephen lynch -- steve engle in his scheduled to be with us. -- steve england is scheduled to be with us. -- when the guard and other institutions will step in? i don't have a handle on that. jonathan: it is a central bank rate hike from president lagarde for this currency, can you answer that question? tom: i don't know. you bring over to e.m., everyone is telling a cm doesn't matter and i don't buy it. jonathan: china matters more for this global economy. it matters more to the commodity market. we've said it through this morning. you can't make a call on this commodity market without a deep understanding, a better understanding of where the

chinese economy is going, and whether president xi moves out from this lockdown story. tom: jump condition on two standard deviations. that shows not so much currency as a mechanism for china but there is an immediacy to their actions to stabilize their economy. jonathan: let's wait for this price action. copper heading south. talking about the difference between two and 10. -10 or 11 basis points. moments ago on this program, jordan rochester talking about the prospect of hitting -- never hitting 95 and maybe going below that level but acknowledges that any call on going south of 95 ultimately is a call on what happens with gas supply later this year. tom: it is, and the gas supply

is a calendar item. how do you focus in the record heat we are seeing across continental europe? jonathan: brutal. it is going to be harder this year. the important factor right now, the euro is what happens when nord stream one comes back online, how much gas we get through that and how much we get later this year. for the ecb, what is the policy for the ecb? tom: i think they are making it up as they go. jonathan: they meet next week. it is brutal. tom: i think it is brutal, and i would suggest our economic theory in action is being made up as we go. jim paulson joins us now. he knows that minnesota is not in drought but often the southwest, there is serious drought. let's start there. what is a symbol of what commodities are doing with the latest corn surge?

how do you fold the midwest commodities surge into the mix of investment dynamics? jim: you know i think -- i've always said, i grew up in iowa and always said that iowans are related to texans in a country that likes disinflation. inflation always did good for the iowa economy and always has done good for the rural minnesota economy but much of the country is better without it and there is a lot of rural america that has benefited greatly from commodity prices in general and they will start to feel the pinch if it comes off, which i think it is. i think it is already starting to go that way, but it is always a situation where inflation business in a disinflationary country, you feel it moreover

all. jonathan: we've been told once or twice that you should seek discomfort and markets, that is where the big returns are. are you ready to get comfortable where the discomfort is? jim: i've been uncomfortable for a while already. this is a bear market that won't end. i don't have to get uncomfortable, i've been there already. it seems clear to me that if you look at the stock market, it is going to need to some inkling, the tightening monetary and fiscal tightening packages employed around the world has got to come to an end, to see some end to that and i think we are getting closer than we think. i look at the fed and i think it takes its direction from its boss just like you and i do. it's boss is the economy in the bond market, and might -- its is the economy and the bond market

in my view. if you look at real growth -- you were just talking about global growth slowing all stop it certainly has in the unit it states. the economic -- the gdp number looks look another negative print of the second quarter. real growth has certainly slowed dramatically. that economic growth is telling the fed a better wrap this up. i think on the inflation front, i think we are winning the war. i know we will get a hot print tomorrow but we also know that the next couple of months after that, we are going to get negative reads from energy. headline declines. commodity prices have been a constant upward thrust on inflation. they are now going to become a deflationary thrust. core cpi, ppi, it is all been decelerating the last couple of months. wage inflation year to date is

up only 4.5%, a clear deceleration. i think there is a lot of evidence that inflation is rolling over. lisa: i think to myself and i'm extrapolating out, does this mean that you are going long tech because you see the belief that perhaps the fed will back off and you are paring back on the commodity space if you are seeing a peak inflation environment? jim: yes, i would. that is where i met. -- where i'm at. looking at the bond market, it is getting -- giving everybody a rate cut and the breakeven rates have collapsed. down from 6.5% just three months ago and it could be back to the 2% handled a target of the end of summer. i think we get a rate pause, not a cut but a pause by the fed and maybe by the fall time and if the markets are stick picked that up, they will move away

from commodities, cyclicals, defensive stocks. they will move more towards early cycle stocks, maybe consumer discretionary and also to your point, i think technology and growth gets a leadership -- jonathan: awesome to get your views, jim paulsen of leuthold weeden. uncomfortable. discomfort. tom: that was such an important interview to go to jim paulsen. this is the divide in the zip codes of minneapolis. the 55402 versus the wall street financial divide. it is stunning right now. jim just flat out says enough, slow down. jonathan: providing any kind of outlook is difficult. i will allow nomura to provide one. expect a recession in -- 25 in november and december and

february 2023 and then the cuts arrived. it is the rate cut call. 25 basis point cuts per meeting and likely starting september 2023. that is way off. tom: i've never witnessed this. i don't understand the guesstimates of getting the incense bottle out and rubbing the sides. jonathan: isn't that what the clients are asking? when do the carts -- cuts stop? tom: the answer is maybe we don't know. what is the ramifications of a 1.17 pound sterling? jonathan: -- lisa: there is a bigger point here regardless of the parlor game of when the rate cuts begin. people have been so conditioned that is what will happen. they have not been conditioned by inflation that is going to become entrenched and they don't buy that story. that to me is a big takeaway, to

the idea of rate cut costs. jonathan: my take away from my interview on friday. he turned around and said how sticky will it be, that is the number one question you need to be asking. guess how sticky inflation will be beyond these prints of close 9%. futures down half of 1%. the brilliant steven englander on this fx market, coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i amrit kuchta. -- i am ritika gupta. no relief for the squeeze of consumers. members are already far -- falling far behind the volume needed right now. the conservative party once the narrow a wide field of

candidates to be written's next prime minister. nominations will open and close today with the first ballot held on wednesday. the new leader and next prime minister will be announced september 5. london's heathrow airport is limiting travels -- travel chaos. the biggest airport in the u.k. will limit daily passenger traffic to 100,000 people through september 11. they are struggling to hire new staff. american airlines is sticking with their expectations for a jump in second-quarter sales despite rising cost. total revenue is a specter to be up 12%. meanwhile, -- will also arise about 12%. peloton is taking one of the most dramatic steps yet to symbol phi operations and reduce costs. they will quit building exercise bikes and treadmills at its own factories. partners will no handling --

will now handle the manufacturing. the company cut nearly 3000 employees earlier this year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪ how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world.

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>> we've taken commodities down sharply, oil down 25 box and discretionary has given us nothing. this idea that some pause in crude or weakness in crude will suddenly re-catalyze the consumer, i think the market is attesting to that not being the case. jonathan: chris verrone of strategas. crude again lower by 6.1%. down on wti, yields lower by

seven basis points. euro-dollar positive just about a 10th of 1%. basically hitting parity this morning. tom: getting the best voices we can on this time of shock on the data screen and some potential crisis as well. he is absolutely definitive and what are called cross rates, the nuances away from euro-dollar, dollar-yen, dollar dynamics. the study of all the major currencies. stephen englander, iconic at citigroup. which is the cross rate that gives you the most information? steven: i think looking at the euro, it is so difficult for everything and the market is so short. the other crosses i'm looking

at, you look at what asia is doing, particularly em asia through this episode of dollar strength, and it is really outperformed. em asia -- it doesn't mean that it is a buy right now because it is risk off and we are moving into a recession but it does seem to be on a relative basis and has been far more stable. tom: do you assume the yen catches up with euro weakness? steven: i think japan's policy is puzzling. the ecb's silence on the euro in

terms of its weakness, i don't think a weak euro is doing them any good right now. i think that the asian currency managers are not particularly looking for excess weakness right now. lisa: given all of that, you have a pretty bold call where you basically say it is getting harder and harder to get the dollar stronger from here and that what we have seen from the reaction on friday, of exley dollar weakness on the heels of a stronger-than-expected payrolls report highlights that people are long-haulers and set to borrow. what does that mean in terms of how significant this could unwind or if people are misreading the market right now? steven: i think the key thing right now is whether gas supplies are restored in 10 days or so. if they are, i think euro shorts

are in a bad position. a lot of this week's euro selling is on the back of concerns that the lights are going to go out in europe. at this point, the gas inventories seems to be normal. the question is, can they continue to accumulate and dissipate some of the pessimism? it is one of the key things for the euro right now. lisa: do you foresee the idea of breaking the way that jordan rochester was saying? that we could see the euro going materially lower? do you think people are underestimating how much people are positioned for that weakness at this point? steven: to me, this is very different than when the euro went above parity and everybody

had started off optimistic. this was a real disappointment to the market. the market has been preparing for this for a couple of months, and i don't think we are close to where it used to be. tom: i looked at long trade-weighted dollar and the steepness of the plaza accord was stunning compared to a more persistent strong dollar now but nowhere near the movement that we saw in the early 1980's. are we anywhere near where institutions come into staunch the dollar? -- come in to staunch the dollar? steven: i think we need some good news. you look at the news flow, china covid issues, russian gas, the u.s. on what they are going to be doing. all of this is kind of risk off. the dollar is supportive as long as that is the news flow. i think if there is any signal

based on optimism, i think we will see the dollar come off. jonathan: steve englander, thank you. do you like that line up in the early 2000's? what a lineup that was 20 years ago. tom: this is really important and jon and i look at the pedigree of the different shops and people bounce around as well, but they each have a certain character. each one of these firms is different. we are trying each day to give you a cross-section around them. i would look at deutsche bank. it is fascinating, the contributions they have made recently. jonathan: i go back to 20 years ago because it produced about five heads of foreign-exchange. 20 years later. tom: you follow the pedigrees.

i think bob sinche is running a hockey camp now, north of old forge. jonathan: when bramo flies off this weekend. lisa: i'm not flying, i'm driving. i'm worried about getting canceled. tom: people on the break here, like what to they do on the break? i make more tang. lisa is focused on dear fly repellent. this looks to be the one. jonathan: serious stuff. if you are just tuning in, believe it or not, stuff is happening. some interesting stuff in the bond market. where are we now? 11 nick -- 11 basis points negative? lisa: going back to 2007, we crossed 11 basis points and we are now firmly through that. tom: round it up, -12. jonathan: round it down.

interest in the direction of travel. lisa coming in with the cpi print tomorrow. i never thought we would sit here and talk about consumer inflation expectations. here we are because of chairman powell. lisa: there is a consensusbuilding that longer term we will revert back to normal. the issue is how we get there and now that seems to be the question people are parsing through, but the consensus for the moment is for that longer duration bid. jonathan: futures down one half of 1%. for our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

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jonathan: the week really getting started and all the data front it is not really start until tomorrow when we get the united states of america. we are all lower, futures down by 4/10 of 1%, breathing some life into the nasdaq over the last hour, positive by 0.06%.

euro-dollar hitting parity this morning. we spoke to jordan rochester of nomura looking at 97, down to 95 on euro-dollar through the summer. it may not happen with gas prices and that is the problem. you have to have a forecast of what happens with gas prices to have a forecast of what is going to happen in europe. tom: can you imagine if we rollover and test where we were at 5:00, 6:00 this morning? jonathan: on the euro? tom: on euro and sterling. the sterling chart is elegant as it goes away. are you a prime minister candidate? jonathan: i'm not, but i may throw my hat in the ring. if i was an mp of the conservative party, i'm not germany people would like that to happen but you and i could make a run for it. you would be my chief adviser. tom: please.

let's pause with an annual visit that we do with -- at stanford university with classrooms that are packed, railing about capitalism in a constructive way. her not to tear down our banks or financial system, it is a goal to inform on their size. she's the economics professor at stanford university and looks at this through an operations research perspective. it has been too long, wonderful to have you back. i want to go to but i think is unspoken, which is using jp morgan as a proxy, pre-pandemic, they had operating income of 45 billion dollars and after the struggles of the pandemic they are operating at $53 billion. they are up 15% or whatever. why are these banks that you often criticize constructively,

why are they such profit-making juggernauts? >> it is wonderful to be a big bank like j.p. morgan chase. it is a good life. the pandemic worked fine for them. i talked to people in the sector, i looked at how they did through and you can see, whatever you do for the economy, they end up benefiting. tom: how do they attach themselves to the rest of america? they will trot out all sorts of social programs, diversity programs and the rest, if we have such success, if we have american banking being so profound, how do they extend that to the rest of the country? anat: they are just very privileged. we wanted to give ppp loans to small businesses. the banks got in the middle of that. got a spread at no risk with no

fees and it was a big windfall for them. then the fed bought corporate bonds and enabled a lot of issuance of bonds and that was a great profit for the banks. once again, it worked out for them, whatever bailout or support that comes to anyone, they get a piece of it. tom: this question came up. i'm very big on this. not a monopoly but a very different thing. you are one of the world leaders on this. it is like a rubber plantation in singapore where the only place you have to sell your rubber is to one party. how is america now, and is that our capitalistic angst? anat: very much so. it is a matter of power, bargaining power and the law. if you look at the way we now allow mandatory arbitration to be enforceable for consumers and

employees, noncompete agreements, they're all of these ways in which corporations have power over people who work for them whether they are employed or a gig workers or contract worker. lisa: you talked about the banks and how they always come out ahead. at this moment we are talking about going through the macro to this micro moment where people are talking about some possible disruption in markets that is significant given the concerns about return growth. isn't it frankly a support for markets and a testament to their strength that we haven't seen some sort of mass disruption akin to what we saw in 2008 given how quickly things are moving? anat: i'm not sure we will see disruption from this slowdown.

there are ways banks can increase lending rates that are sort of paired and it is not clear that it is strong just because it doesn't implode in a given moment. the system only starts really cracking seriously if there is a massive fear. right now we are seeing crypto action which has similarities to some of the issues we saw in banking, excessive borrowing, all kinds of defaults, collateral, etc. lisa: that is the point and i wanted to continue with that idea but we almost never express the stress where it comes. where are you seeing the notes of potential contagion or stress that might not be in the

traditional forms of finance that we saw in the past? anat: my big fear that i've developed is a sort of thinking, jamie dimon likes to say -- says that he told his daughter that a crisis is just something that happens, a financial crisis every 3, 5 or seven years and we are due to for one -- do for one according to him. my main concern is cybersecurity. you kind of know that there are things looking potentially. they are hacking the new york fed and they are looking, and all of a sudden, i don't know, should i print out my banking statement? i think banks might be more prepared than other institutions. if you look at the colonial pipeline and some of these disruptions of infrastructure,

we can have a lot of contagion. there are hospitals and municipalities. if it is warfare, in the digital dimension, who knows? tom: getting back to the markets. a little green on the screen with nasdaq. have you ever been to the hoover institution? they allow you in the door? anat: i've talked to people. tom: you have? i want toi want to talk about te minority in this world, which is legislative linkage, progressive and liberal economics can have with a broader conservative america. anat: my big battle that you have been familiar with, which i just sort of gave up because i got tired of spending my time on it is the idea that you have to be on your own, able to absorb

losses. that is bipartisan. equity funding. there was a proposal by david better when he was in the senate with sherrod brown, and they had the senate in 2015, vote unanimously that they don't like -- except when it came time to discussing how to deal with failing banks. they wouldn't vote for 15% equity, which is so radical that no other company has that. tom: we will leave it there with the markets moving. professor admati, thank you for joining us. john, it harkens back to too big to fail and some of these market indicators harkening back to where we were in 2007. jonathan: thinking about a crisis. what was said yesterday?

don't look the way you typically look for a global fx crisis. he said look to europe. we are looking to europe in a bigger way. lisa: that potentially drives things down. at what point do things break? jordan rochester said we are getting there. jonathan: ing was talking to the team earlier this morning. he basically turned around and economist at ing. let about if or when there will be a recession but how deep it will be in europe. that is what we are trying to figure out. with that in mind, this pretty much crept up on us. next thursday, we will cc -- we will see something from this ecb -- from the ecb that we haven't seen in a long time, a rate hike. tom: the importance of it is tangible where you and i should get on the gulfstream and get over to frankfurt and cover this properly.

jonathan: that might be difficult at the moment. tom: talk about this historic moment for christine lagarde. jonathan: we talked about the invasion of ukraine over the last six months and the next stage of our coverage and of course we will cover that invasion and the war as it is ongoing. the economic fallout. that is just turning to come to the surface and a much more pronounced way. lisa: and what is the economic fallout? i'm trying to think about what the ramifications are, for artificially curtailing the supply because of a lack of workers. doesn't that lead to higher prices? doesn't that lead to higher wages? tom: higher valuation and higher prices. lisa: how much does that trickle out to an economic proposition that is potentially problematic and what to central banks do with that? tom: the only thing anat admati agrees with john taylor on.

jonathan: -- of blackrock. tom: wonderful. jonathan: less constructive on equities. futures are down by a third of 1%. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. i am ritika gupta. president biden and mexico's president will discuss ways to expand legal migration and improve security when they meet today at the white house. they will announce joint action to improve infrastructure and cooperation along the 2000 mile border. the mexican president says increasing immigration would strengthen the u.s. labor force and help curb inflation. a billionaire real estate titan is urging the fed to aggressively raise interest rates and break --

>> i think that interest rates could go up a couple hundred basis points, and not throw us into a recession. i think there has been so much capital sloshing around, that i think the first major swallows of reducing the excess flow, i think you will have quite the impact that the stock market is reflecting. ritika: you can watch all of that exclusive interview tonight at 9:00 p.m. new york time with david rubenstein. and shanghai, there are fears the city is heading back into lockdown a little more than five weeks after exiting the two month ordeal. the city reported 55 new coronavirus cases on monday, the fourth day in a row that case numbers had been above 50, with detection of a new sub strain.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is the combination of liquidity and the increase of interest rates that is starting to bother central markets. my bet would be that at some point in the next few months, maybe the next few weeks, we are heading for some kind of a financial accident. tom: michael shaoul, really strong yesterday. i thought it was good how he pulled it back to look and focus on europe. lisa: that seems to be the theme for today. also it is bleeding into a

general fear of european equities. tom: the general fear two hours ago was more fearful than it was now. i could start with any item of data. the nasdaq slightly green. lisa: we have to talk about that currency story but in the perspective of the stock market because we see that dollar strength both weighing on the euro and the yen, becoming a weakness around the world story. the stock market shows a little different. they are out chili on performing anybody who is holding dollars. the chart shows you the s&p 500. the s&p 500 in dollar adjusted terms, what you will see is that in the last year, if you adjust for the dollar, your portfolio on the s&p 500 is flat. if you are holding it by the dollar, then you are seeing your losses eroded 12% in the last year.

it speaks to that currency story, just how much of the dollar story is holding you back if your local investor. tom: it speaks to the em market weakness we have seen. right now, the important podcast and writing, always thinking about these markets and i want to dovetail your recession analysis and you're upset at the media's hysteric tea over two quarters with the idea of the earnings season upon us where we have a quarterly earnings frenzy. how do you dance the quarterly earnings ballet constructively? >> a couple of things. first, historically the analyst community tends to overestimate earnings, except in the midst and the depths of recessions where they underestimate them. that said, we've been at record earnings for two years.

the pandemic was very good for earnings, give the american people $5 trillion in stimulus and they will go out and spend it and it works its way to the bottom line. tom: american airlines out with 12% revenue growth. barry: 12%? that is giant. tom: how do you adjust for this new inflation that we have to figure out which company is going to deliver persistent free cash flow? barry: here is the thing about inflation and stocks. inflation isn't selective. it cuts across the board, it hits everything. there is lots of evidence that not only our companies passing along price increases, given constrained supplies to the consumer, but the consumers have more or less been willingly paying it, and that seems to not have a negative impact on revenue and not have a negative impact on profits.

if companies can pass this along, it shouldn't have too big an impact on the bottom line and that is why surprisingly to a lot of people, stocks tend to be a pretty decent hedge on inflation. lisa: do you think this is the time to be more aggressive? barry: here is the question. whether or not we get a recession in 2023, i don't want to even talk about 2024. it is hard to see the current environment as being recessionary, given job increases, consumer spending increases, how much of additional tightening is already reflected in the market dropping about 20%, year to date, and how much further is the fed going to go in order to tamp down inflation? remember the cpi report is backward looking. lots of evidence suggests we are already substantially passed peak inflation. i don't know if it is in the

june cpi report we get tomorrow or the july report we get in august, but i don't think the fed should be looking at 75 basis points unless they want to cause a recession. they should be looking at 50, which means we are probably two thirds through the selloff and if you want to start legging into equities here with the understanding that this may not be the bottom. there may be more to go. do it in chunks, that is how you get aggressive. you start buying here on the expectation that we end up down 25 percent but the economy is too strong to see an appreciably worse market from their. lisa: given the strength you hear about and you are talking about, how much can you still count on bonds and buffers when the ration seems to be the consensus? barry: that is a fascinating question. we are coming off of a 40 year bond bull market where bonds did nothing but go up and rates did nothing but go down. now the question is how high our

bond yields going to go for the start becoming more attractive to investors? if you can eventually see a 3% stable yield on the 10 year, i think that is where bonds are a buy but right now, there is a lot of volatility and uncertainty. we don't know if the fed is going to have a policy mistake or if they will engineer a soft landing and that is the answer to your question. tom: one more question, the idea that corporations should buy back shares when things are lousy. are we here? barry: too many corporations, they are price chasers and they are buyers when things are good. it is rare in the depths of 2008 or 2009 that we see that. if you want to engage in increasing shareholder yield and you want to raise your dividend and buyback stocks down 25%, certainly a good place to start

assuming your cash flow supports it. tom: barry ritholtz, thank you very much. lisa, i would summarize where we are as more constructive than two hours ago. lisa: that seems to be a theme in these early hours. i wonder how much that becomes a liquidity story at a time we just had the lowest volume of treasuries trade going back to december. how much of that has whipped markets and then stabilizes when people come to the office? tom: oil, it is amazing that drop on oil we saw two hours ago. lisa: especially considering the opec report. they put out their first report of the year talking about the outlook, saying that supplies are not going to meet demand. even with the expectation for demand to cool off in the face of these things, and oil is still down. how much of this is a china story, how much is positioning on futures?

tom: lisa, we mentioned the deer fly repellent. we set off a firestorm of analysis on twitter. lisa: i'm looking forward to the wealth. i'm looking to avoid them. as we talk about vacation plans, we can't lose sight of the fact that a lot of people are not leaving to go on vacation. tom: that was a nice segue. lisa: thank you, i try. tom: deer flies have wingspan's like beef to choose -- like b-52 s. lisa: why do you keep going back there? they are the main of my spirit -- bane of my existence. tom: this is bloomberg. ♪

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