tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg July 13, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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>> inflation in america at over 9%, shocking investors and economists alike. vanguard and kkr, joining us momentarily. "bloomberg markets" starts now. kriti: if you would check the markets at 8:30 a.m. this morning with a nine prevent -- 9% prince coming out, you would see a pretty full selloff. addiction telling all the way. that narrative has turned around as ours progressed. the s&p 500, lat on the session. the twos, tends curve, that is
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where the action is. it gets more and more negative, down 17 basis points when it comes to that. we dig into an momentarily but check out the dollar. as you see the moves in the bond market, the dollar weakening. but being this into context -- putting this into context, it is higher and higher. perhaps a move for the cbi report. -- from the cpi report. buying commodities is not working -- buying commodities is not working today. let's take a look at some of the guests on bloomberg reacting to a hot u.s. inflation report. >> this inflation print is a problem. >> there is no slowdown in inflation here. >> domestic price pressures are quite strong. >> this is going to amp up rusher on policymakers. >> the fed needs to keep going. >> needs to keep moving at a rapid clip. >> the fed will probably go 75 basis points. >> it will be difficult to get
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off of 75 basis point hikes. >> the report seems to solidify that 75 basis points. >> they out to be careful here because this is turning. >> these rate rises are coming as growth is starting to slow. >> they can respond to slowing growth. we know growth is slowing. >> taking policy in for slowing growth is not a good combo for risk assets. >> i don't think they are close to stopping even if they can slow down the pace. kriti: slowing growth, recession, a scary word coming out from our bloomberg tv guests. we will get more on that report and how it affects the federal reserve in particular. andrew patterson joins us with vanguard investment strategy group senior international economist. and you for joining us the reaction for this report. it seems at a nine handle on inflation, the consensus is this does not area andrew: like a lot of the reports these days, inflation and otherwise, i would say it is a nuanced message. the key now and going forward
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will be to take it -- dig into the data. there were some negative indicators in that. prices remained relatively high, pressures continuing with vehicles, apparel which we thought would turnaround, remained relatively high. some concern in the service sectors with health care spending, questions around oer, owners equivalent rents. how much could that -- i was higher could echo? certainly things going forward. core inflation did take down. being able to draw the distinct in between inflation -- headline inflation at this level, above 9%, and trying to get the economy and financial market participants to focus more on core, that is a big lift for the fed right now. in all, it was a bit concerning but we think there is reason for optimism going forward. kriti: reason for optimism, perhaps for vanguard but is there optimism for the federal
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reserve here? in the last couple hours since we got that report, fed swap now pricing a one in two chance that in two weeks time the federal reserve will hike i 100 basis points. is that the market getting ahead of itself? andrew: i think to some extent, yes. i was a 75 is more likely. that is per debate in this point. 75 in september is also a possibility. then we have less conviction there. it'll take a little while for the work it digest this data and then we have a few more reports before the actual fed meeting, so we will see if indicators are shorter-term -- shorter-term indicators like gas prices come down. not that that would distract from 75 basis points time around but that would be indicative of things are starting to head in the right direction. kriti: to what extent does the market to the federal resolved -- federal reserve job for it? powell came on and said inflation expectations are already getting out of the federal reserve. they like it is almost already
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operating into the fear in the market. but you have a stronger dollar tightening conditions more and more. how much work does the fed have to do? andrew: they still have wood to chop but we believe once they did acknowledge they were behind the curve and there is a high likelihood there was a bit of a policy error toward the end of last year, once they started taking action, increasing rates, we think they have done a good job of communicating with the market. and getting the market to buy into the idea that they are going to -- to borrow a quote for mario draghi -- do whatever it takes. in addition to good policy and good communication, they also need a bit of good luck which they have not had yet in terms of some of the price shocks but that may be turning the corner if oil prices continue to stay rind or -- around or below $100 per barrel. kriti: let's talk about the markets more. you are an economist by trade
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but it does not mean you are not looking at that curve pricing in a recession quickly. i believe it is vanguard's theory or call that's in the next two years, 65% of -- 65% chance of recession in the united states. i want to ask about the curve. a major in curve -- major curve down 17 basis point. tom keene, if you compare this to the volcker area, the inversion was over 200 basis points. is this a repeat? andrew: sure. it is certainly headed in the wrong direction. as an economist, we focus more on the three month, 10 year inversion. that is not inverted yet because the fed has more wood to chop. they still have more room to go in terms of rate hikes. we are keeping a close eye on that. to come attends, as you mentioned, it was far more inverted in the years passed or decades past rather so keeping an eye on that but we want to see how long that persists. we have done a little work on
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that and it tends to show you need to cede twos intends persist for about two to three weeks on a negative territory for it to be a strong signal. even then, you are talking about a recession within the next six to 12 months, not necessarily tomorrow. kriti: let's talk about the economic signal. you have a housing market that is being powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. -- you have a housing market seeing boom after boom, a labor market extreme he, and a liquidity issue that is really plaguing the markets but also at the same time with quantitative tightening taking place. out of the three issues, what is the biggest worry? andrew: the labor market that we are paying the most attention to right now. one of the things we believe has to happen, if the fed were to engineer a soft landing, which you mentioned before is not our base case over the next 18 to 24 months, probability of recession around 65 in our view today to at this point.
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in terms of the labor market, more individuals need to come back into the labor market to relieve pressures, including those on wages. we estimate about one million workers would need to return to help provide some support and a little easing in labor market tightness. kriti: andrew patterson, vanguard investment strategy group senior intel economist, thank you as always. we will hear from the cleveland fed president later today coming up at 6:30 new york time. first, let's get to mark crumpton with first word news. mark: thank you. president biden opens his first visit here as president by declaring in his words a bone deep bond between the united states and israel and pledging to strengthen economic connections between the two countries. later in the week, mr. biden will meet saudi arabia's crown prince, mohammed and solman -- mohammad bin salman, hoping to
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secure a boost in oil production to ease u.s. gas prices. boris johnson defending his record as he gets ready to leave office. in his latest question and answer session with parliament, mr. johnson said he is proud of his accomplishments. >> i'm also proud of the leadership that i have given, and i will be leaving soon with my head held high. mark: mr. johnson also hinted this could be his last appearance for the prime minister, saying his successor could be chosen by acclamation. and ritchie sumac has taken an early lead in the race to succeed leader is the ruling conservative party and britain's pride minister. in the first bout of conservative mps, the chancellor won the most votes. the next ballot is scheduled for thursday. the crisis in sri lanka is winding. protesters took to the streets of colombo after the president
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fled his country for the maldives. demonstrators seized the state-run tv channel and voiced it off the air. sri lanka's prime minister declared a state of emergency. sri lanka's economy has been hurt by soaring inflation and shortages of food, fuel, and medicine. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg.
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kriti: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm kriti gutpa. the fed raising interest rates aggressively and inflation red-hot, credit markets are buckling. he saw that with borrowers weighing bonds down in the investment primary market. joining me with a look at the credits fear is sonali basak. >> thank you. if you take a look at the 210 yield curve, i will still a note from ed harrison, a deeply inverted yield curve means credit is had to drive next. that is certainly true in liquid markets where you take a look at this starting to blowout. that is a key enigma -- shaky indicator of worry. then you have triple c yields starting to get to where you are in may 2020. so in the depths of the global pandemic, that is 14% but that also means it is getting more
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expensive or risky companies to borrow, interest rates rising, there are a lot of worries about people covering those payments into the future and what does that mean for future investments ahead? kriti: let me ask you a follow, what does that mean? you are at sun valley talking about financing deals with the biggest players in the world. what did you learn? daniel: 14% is a bit -- sonali: 14% means it's pretty expensive for companies to borrow but that's a pretty coupon to collect. you have investors looking to get in but you have to have that risk appetite. kriti: we will find out if we do. despite the credit market, you are starting to see it seep into the markets a little bit. kkr is known to lead in while valuations are depressed. as such, the firm raised $2 billion for a new credit -- based on as a backed financing. joining us is the cohead of private funds, daniel --daniel petrzak. let's start with the macro picture, 9% handle on inflation. talk to us about how it affects
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the financing. are you more hesitant to hop into new deals, projects? daniel: clearly i think the print today was no surprise on how wide it was. i think volatilities exist in the markets and i think in many ways that volatility is good for private credit. we are in the business of finding interesting opportunity if these were privately originated and negotiated loans. we intend to hold them to maturity. we intend to be the stable source of capital in environments like this. it is a worry from an underwriting perspective. i think we are trying to be cautious as it relates to how we deploy capitakl -- capital. we do take risk. kriti: when you thing about the outcomes ahead, recession, what are these doing in terms of underwriting for the future? daniel: first, everything we do we are underwriting a recession happening anyway. that would have been the same
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underwriting we would have done 12 months ago, if you month ago, so i think in some ways it is that. obviously we are spending a lot more time thinking about the risk in the portfolio. you think about you have a fairly large credit business, a private credit business, $71 billion plus so we are mindful of that. everybody is impacted from inflation. i think we are pretty darn focused on the portfolio side. i think it just really means being a little more selective as a relates to new deployment. kriti: you mentioned caution a couple times. what assets would you avoid in this market? daniel: two things, one, i do think opportunity is real for those of us who have kind of capital to invest. you mentioned the fund we raise, the 2.1 billion dollar fund. a large focus of that is in consumer and mortgage finance space. you think about the consumer and obviously we are worried about and thinking about the consumer.
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that said, we are pretty open to business. we are probably skewing ourselves more to are things i gotta loans, like consumer loans , focused on the home improvement space, maybe staying more away from the regular, unsecured product or thinking about higher credit score and credit spectrum. >> we are about to get big bank earnings in the next couple days, and it is what we call the super bowl basically. we have to ask about what you are expecting to see when it comes to issues, and terms of debt issuance, terms of the capital market, and funding environment. daniel: transaction volumes are down on the m&a side but the primary markets and almost every si class are impacted by whether it is a corporate deal, and asset-backed deal, and i think i continues for some period of time. everyone is in a little wait and see approach. an meme -- henry mcveigh talks about walk and don't run. i think that sort of makes sense. will they be able to sort of
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stamp out this inflation with raising of rates? will they be able to do that when demand is as strong as it is in a bunch of sectors? i think it will take time for that activity to come back and clearly will impact the primary sides of the markets. sonali: there was a time a couple years ago, six months ago, where a lot of banks were excited about leverage finance, asset-based financing, these other areas to come back. you are getting in deeper into asset-backed financing. you mentioned this is a space that is where direct lending was a few years ago. what does that mean for the next couple years? daniel: when i said that, i was talking about the institutional investors i. i think five years ago, people were trying to figure out on the let -- direct lending how does it fit into their model, where were they pulling it from. if you look at that today, most everyone has an allocation, talking on the institutional side, the private debt. we have been in the acid-base -- space for a while. have been doing it since 2016,
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done 50 plus deals, 60 plus billion dollars, and that does not include the more insurance-related assets we have with billions more deployments. where we sit today, most people are coming in and wanting to talk about this. they want to say no this is private credit, privately originated, we want something different than corporate risk. it is -- has turned into a hot topic, like direct lending in my mind five years ago. >> you are at deutsche bank before kkr and that is the king in the room when taking about asset-backed financing. how much activity, whether asset financing or any type of lending now, especially the risky companies, are going away from those banks and over to folks like you? daniel: i would split it in two pieces. on the corporate debt market, i think the private creditors in the direct lending space have taken a certain level of market share. i think the syndicated loan market is all is going to exist, high market -- high-yield market will exist.
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as us and others have gotten bigger and we have $35 million dedicated to lending, we can hold bigger deals. you see some deals leave the market but i think that remains. if you look at the assets-based strategy we have, that it was -- a lot of that was born out of the financial crisis. regulation came in, think about risk retention, those principal finance or crop dusts disappeared and funds like ours came in. sonali: let's talk about the consumer. you have a consumer still spending, despite it being low. does that affect your attitude against auto based loans, health, financing, anything like that? daniel: yeah. i touched on that before. i think we definitely put a little more thought into it. i think the consumer did enter the space in a good spot. i think the cumulus savings rate was high. you have seen bad data which points on terms of saving rates
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going down, credit card uses going up, but i think they are probably in a better spot than they would have been in the normal recessionary environment. you are sitting at a spot where on them limit is quite low, that usually does not correlate to recessions. i think that is a new fact we will all get to wait and see how that plays out. i think we are probably trying to lean in more to things like auto loans and we like housing, people who are homeowners leaning into that from a lending perspective and being more cautious in other spots. sonali: quickly here, 30 seconds, people are going to make mistakes. what is the single biggest mistake people will make in this market when risk is starting to rise? daniel: maybe it is two. a liquid credit, people usually make mistakes when they take long-term assets and find them short. things like mark tomorrow facilities are bad as history has proven that is where people get topped out. i thing that is why almost the
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private credit market has come into its own. you look at the fund today and that is effectively a tenure fund. you look at the bbc space and that is permanent capital. we arrive with this tide up capital base. if people had done market to market financing or do it to take advantage of opportunities, there is risk. i think this is one of those moments where it would take us as an example, we are open for new deals but i think we will pace ourselves. we are not going to do everything we see between now and september 30, maybe not even between now and the end of the year. kriti: a little caution i'm hearing your voice. daniel petrzak of kkr and sonali basak, they q so much. -- thank you so much. you're a parity with the dollar today, the first time in 20 years. we dig into the history of hitting that parity next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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kriti: this is bloomberg markets. i am creed he goofed up. now something that call my eye, the euro touching parity with the dollar. we have been waiting for this for months and weeks. it is sitting the fourth and five digit but this talk about how we got here. this is significant, a story a decade in the making, starting all the way back to 2010. gypsy financial inflation was high, rate hikes, the european rate hikes, mario draghi saying whatever it takes. that is when you have the depot rate coming apart. the ecb record low rate of -5/10 -- .5% and ultimately the ukrainian war really pushing the ecb between a rock and a hard place. now finally seeing weakness in the this is significant when instantly comes to where you go
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from here. is this going to be a policymaker the central bank around the world as it was a decade ago when the ecb first started the rate hikes seen as a policy mistake? we will talk about all of that in the coming days and coming months and coming weeks even. this is significant when it comes to once again where you will see the ripple effects throughout the rest of the world. the euro is one of the largest traded currencies with the dollar in particular and it is not doing well. we talked about euro parity and then, do we start to see parity in other currencies as well? the cable rate for example, that is perhaps the next on the radar. the dollar strength story does not affect just g10 currencies. it affects the chilean peso, philip ian peso -- filipino peso . they are struggling because the food inflation is counteracting the benefits you see on the oil space.
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mark: president biden is the best -- is in israel. hayward talk about a two state solution for israelis and palestinians. >> greater peace, greater civility, greater connection. it is critical for all the people of the region. which is why we will discuss my continued support. even though i know it is not in the near term and a t state solution.
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mark: he is also scheduled to visit saudi arabia. the hope is to restore relations with the crown prince and will boost oil production and ease u.s. gas prices. the secret service employee who is on the president's trip has been sent home. a statement from the secret service says after what was called a physical encounter late monday, the employee was detained by israeli police. the worker consulted -- assaulted a woman outside of a bar in jerusalem. there was no allegation of sexual assault. in shanghai, covid-19 cases appeared to be leveling off after a recent surge. residents have been served -- recommended to stockpile food and medicine. there is a fear that the city could return to lockdown. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. kriti: let us get right into the price action. a more volatile session. it has calmed down a little bit. coming off of the blockbuster cpi support -- report. a knee-jerk reaction. sign off by over 1%. the flat on this session, technology leading out in front. how much of that is going to be a yield story because yields are lower to the tune of a few basis points? 20 basis points, going back in
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history, 40, 50, even 200 basis points lower if you go all the way down to the 1970's. a weaker dollar, down .4%. is that the story that stays given the inflationary environment? growth is the concern here and that is reflected in the oil space. john: let us dive deeper into the stock mover at this hour. it has been interesting to watch the growth and name early on during the inflationary higher rate scenario that the markets have been putting their heads around. today you have a couple of interesting stories under the hood. unity, for billion-dollar deal on the table which is an interesting antidote -- anecdote. twitter is locked in a legal battle with elon musk. a bullish call on that name. that is the flavor in
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technology. you have bullion higher today as investors process where the economy go from here. if you have another reminder of higher costs, delta airlines with its outlook giving us another reality check. kriti: the rising costs is the name of the game. referring to a four decade high in june -- roaring to a four decade high in june. when it has now from the rock on monday -- joining us now from the rocky mountain summit, mike, let us start with the superlative, the highest inflation rating since 1981. inflation is getting higher and higher. is there a risk of a quick deflation that follows? >> we could get back to the same inflation dynamics we saw after the great financial crisis when we did have a deflationary atmosphere.
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right now, there is too much of a broad case of inflation. not just the gasoline and food, and of areas are seeing price increases. we did see changes in goods prices, continuing to fall. as people switch to more services spending, it may level out and we see a bit of a decline. it will be a while until we see inflation come down. there is no danger it comes down very quickly. john: help us get our heads around what was now factored into this reading. a month ago when some thought you would be saying the peak in inflation was not the case. you have heard from an of the economists retailers dealing with higher levels of inventory. we were wondering if pricing had peaked in used cars. what was the breakdown of these numbers today? >> aided surprise economists,
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retailers may be cutting prices because inventory has built so much. unfortunately for the administration or for the idea of inflation, apparel costs were up. used cars were up 1.6%, even though wholesale prices had gone down. maybe those things turn around in this month data? owners equivalent rent, the way they measure whole prices in the u.s. was up by .7 percent, the highest in quite some time. home prices are still feeding into inflation in a big way. gasoline and food raising the overall headline inflation numbers. john: helpful breakdown, and a lot of moving parts of these days. we get more perspective on the
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inflation numbers and inflation is front and center in canada with the bank of canada lacking interest rates by a full percentage point earlier. inflation forecasted near 8% in the incoming months. here is from earlier today. >> by front loading interest rate increases, we are trying to avoid the need for higher interest rates down the road. front loading tightening cycles tend to be followed by softer landings. this argues forgetting our neutral range. john: let us get more perspective, the head of capital markets at deutsche bank. so that we have been tracking at bloomberg -- something that we have been tracking at bloomberg, a 182 chance of a 100 basis point hike in july given what the bank of canada has done,
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does that surprise you? >> i think central banks are realizing they have fallen well behind inflation expectations. that is the part that has been deeply concerned. thank is in great into the psyche and it is game over. -- that becomes integrated into the psyche and it is game over. kriti: on this side of the border, the biggest market move we are watching is the inverse of the .2% curve. if you go back and compare perhaps to the 70's -- 1970's, this is nothing compared to the -200 basis point and version we saw there. does that mean recession is imminent? do you agree with the calls we
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are hearing across wall street? >> it is always bad to bet against the bond curve. a relatively decent track record, it depends on the exact measure. that is not the best measure of recession, there are other measures like how the market expects the 90 day policy rates to evolve over the next 18 months. there seems to be fed research to support that. having said that, there is no doubt that the whole point of the exercise is to heighten financial conditions and get to big ticket related consumption and you will not get cooler inflation until you demand -- cool the demand side of the picture. john: 50 became the new 25, here in canada, 100 or placing 75.
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we mention those expectations about whether or not the fed takes similar action. model market watcher said while he is supporting -- one market watcher said while the is supporting phase, he was surprised that the bank of canada were not better categorize that. does communication have to start to change? >> we saw going into the last meeting that there was an effort that we know that unfolded in the financial press to set up a 75 point move after they had guided something in line of a 50 point rate move. the fed does not want to surprise markets. i would expect them to stick to that kind of playbook going into the july decision. i what watch very carefully on
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administration is considering expanding eligibility for second booster shots. let us bring in our associate professor of epidemiology at the bloomberg school of public health. thank you for joining us. let us start with china, this has the biggest market ripple effect. i am curious about vaccine mandate and the covid zero policy. >> the vaccine mandates were put in place because the public were not buying it. they did not want to be mandated to be vaccinated. with that scaled back, the covid zero policy is not a sustainable policy. it will be with us for generations. this policy is hampered if vaccine mandates are not possible. there is a lot more testing, they have been testing quite a bit. to enter public places you have to show a negative test. it will be up to china to figure
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out exactly how this policy will morph into something that is sustainable. john: by comparison, let us bring it back to north america. some of the bush out of washington on the booster front -- push out of washington on the booster front, eligibility for a fourth booster for those 18 and older. what evidence do we have on the effectiveness on boosters? >> a lot of the push for an additional booster is being pushed by staying ahead of the ba.5 wave which is happening now. 65% of the cases in the u.s. are be five. -- ba.5. if you are 50 and older, you
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should be second boosted at this point. we are talking about other people in the community who are circulating, those under 50. i think it will be a hard sell to suggest a second booster. it is not just the white house, the white house can plan for this. really, it is the fda and cdc. they would have to approve and recommend a second booster. for those under 50, the evidence is not super compelling. that vaccine effectiveness wayne is suggesting a need for boosters in so many people who are healthy. we have this other situation happening where a vaccine is in the works. ideally if a second booster came out for those less than 50, the new vaccine gives us something new and wait start to see -- we start to see covid morph into cases, cases are underestimated
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dramatically due to how testing -- home testing. a low level of hospitalization and death compared to the other waves we have seen. hopefully we will have a vaccine that will stimulate a wider immunity for us including the inclusion of ba.5. we cannot get there fast enough. 2 helpful --john: helpful context. we want to mention as well that the school is supported by michael r. bloomberg, the founder of bloomberg. president biden's problems at home are looping over a middle east trip that is about oil. the first stop on his agenda, later this week, we are joined by emily horton and ann marie.
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what is the success of this trip? what is everyone going to be watching for? >> we should first put the trip into two parts. many are asking why the president is in israel. the israelis' coalition collapse and they have an election is november. he will have a joint statement and a press conference, he is the caretaker and prime minister at the moment. the administration wants to continue with abraham accords and normalize connections with israel. they are not there yet. no major breakthroughs. the second part of the trip to saudi arabia. he will be the first u.s. president to flight directly from israel to the kingdom. everyone is watching when he
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meet with the crown prince. he was on the campaign trail and vowed to make the kingdom a pariah. he said there were no redeeming qualities about the government. he will be asking for their. support to stabilize energy markets not just what he can get out of this trip in terms of trying to deal with his domestic issue at home, it will be a fine line he has to walk. there are many within his party that did not want him to step foot in the kingdom. john: thank you so much. we will be watching closely. something people will be watching as well. energy policy, coming up, as investors bet on more aggressive rate hikes from the u.s. federal reserve, they look ahead on what to expect in the beige book. this is bloomberg. ♪
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john: we see the inflation store in the united states. we saw the bank of canada raise interest rates by 100 points. this appears to be the inflationary fears. the .2% curve and version. reaching a mark last seen in 2000. joining us is cameron. thank you for being with us. your reaction to what has been happening? >> a is the intersection of a lot of things -- it is the intersection of a lot of things. central banks need to move
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aggressively and the thinking is eventually it turns the economy into an egg that hits a brick wall. that leads to long-duration. we saw the bank of canada put up 100 basis points. they downgraded their growth forecasts. the fed will have to be aggressive, even if they do not go 180 a couple of weeks, it raises the -- 100 80 a couple of weeks, it raises the bar. kriti: cpi trends this morning, a handle over 9%, the biggest since 1981. if you are looking at the inversion then, it was -200 basis points. we are at -21. does this matter? >> no.
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bond yields were multiples of what they are now. you cannot look at the inversion of three-month 10 year in nominal terms and compare. a 100 basis point inversion means more when yields are at 3% than 10%. clearly, markets are pivoted very swiftly to the sense that again, fed tightening is going to be sufficiently aggressive to lead to economic distress. john: we have a big bowl of economic data to chew on. anything you are looking for? >> if you listen to jerome powell talk about the economy and you read last month's beige book from the june meeting, you
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would think that they were two different things. powell keeps talking about the strength of the economy. even six weeks ago, the beige book characterized growth as slight, to modest in most districts and suggested to some degree waning of pressure in terms of the labor market and inflation. given what has gone on with commodity prices, it is hard to see that inflation expectation going to do anything but proceed somewhat further -- recede somewhat further. is it likely that we see any sort of upgrade to the economic growth characterization? no. i think i would be looking for another characterization that the economy is kind of not super
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