>> this is bloomberg daybreak: europe, i'm dani burger in london alongside manus cranny. manus: the markets are a 50-50 that the fed will hike rates by 100 basis points this month after another scorching inflation print. the treasury 2-10 yield curve inverts to the deepest level since 2000. your stock futures are in the red. the eu is set to cut gdp forecasts with accelerating price pressures amid the war in ukraine weighing on growth. it is earnings season. dani: we have already -- erickson earnings with ms for

operating profit. the estimate was for 43.5%. it does not look like their net sales were able to become so i wonder if there is inflation or cost pressures at play. manus, i don't see any update when it comes to their investigation in their 2019 report, some analysts were looking for that but so far, we are not seeing it. manus: this is the debate between blackrock and goldman sachs, which is not devastating earnings topline growth, but about dissecting these earnings. margins were 42.2%, that is a miss, that is what the market will focus on. what if you got in terms of equities? dani: pretty tepid response to

9.1% on the cpi. i was watching futures and you would've thought the world was over, stocks absolutely collapsed but they easily came back this morning. pretty flat on the msci asia pacific, being led by tech shares. we were talking about this option yesterday of 30-year yields. those essentially came in the strongest demand by one measure on record. that really helped to put in a bid for the growth stocks. you can see nasdaq outperforming this morning, down just wait 1%. -- down just .1%. but we were looking at some volatility when it comes across as it picture. manus: when it comes to the equities story, you have a question of 6% relative to bond yield.

the question is, has king dollar fully priced at the risk of 100 basis points from that that july meeting? my question for the market is simple, scorching hot cpi, does that deliver an absolute volcker esque scorched earth policy of 100 basis points? and the two's tens invert, the deepest since the dotcom bubble. what does that inversion mean. we have seen it cool down to 50 basis points in inversion. crude oil is up. this oil market is screamingly tight, however gas season in america is crumbling, down 14% last week. we made it through parity and the eu expected to cut their growth forecast to 1.4%, does that add to narrative on the downside for europe? dani: i saw some data that gas

demand in the u.s. was sinking lower than the pandemic. it wasn't the pandemic keeping people inside, it is high prices. let's get to some of our reporters around the world. and a karen in hong kong with the latest on inflation, garfield reynolds will take us through the euro parity bridge. manus: annabelle droulers is in hong kong, she will look at these out of season moves from central banks around the world. after a four decade high, the red-hot u.s. inflation print raises the prospect of a 100 basis point hike. the swaps market has equal odds of 75 4100 basis we hike -- of a 75 or 100 basis point hike. meanwhile the bank of canada did raised by a hundred basis points. let's get to enda curran, the question is this, the bank of canada are they just being more

expeditious and getting ahead of the fed? enda: it sounds like the fed might be following that path. a lot of reaction this morning from economists saying 100 basis points is on the table now. rafael bostic said 100 could be part of the mix now. mary daly making that point that they are still looking at 75 basis points. if you look at what is happening now with the 9.1% inflation read, the shock factor with that, that may move the markets 200 basis points. it is all starting to add up to 100 being venue 75 -- the new 75. dani: to be fair, we have waller speaking today and a bull ard tomorrow, perhaps they will be prepping us for 100 basis points.

looking at how central bankers are responding and what we are seeing from the bank of canada, this nine handle on cpi, how central banks respond? enda: is a game changer. this morning, a lot of reaction in asia. singapore raise the foreign exchange rate. the philippines unexpectedly came out with a 75 basis point move. there is expectation that the bank of australia will have to make a hefty move, if not 50, then maybe saudi five. -- 75. it is quieting down talk of peak inflation, and it is a reminder of how far central bankers have to go to get ahead of the curve. singapore and the philippines making those shock moves today. and other central banks are expected to follow. manus: thank you very much.

let's see if anybody else joins the 100 jumbo hike group. you are going to stay with us because we are going to talk about the eu now, the draft projections, i was talking about parity on the euro-dollar. we have higher than expected inflation data and it doesn't get much worse for the eu. enda: we are expecting a downgrade on both this year and next year. they are talking about upscaling there inflation forecast. the back story is the looming energy prices and the spillover from russia's invasion of ukraine. certainly, expectations are for a steep slowdown. economists are saying europe is headed for slowdown, if not recession. these figures out of the

european commission thursday are expected to underscore that negative sentiment. manus: ok, enda, we will catch up a little later on. scorching hot prints, does it lead to scorched earth policy from the fed? the euro dropped through parity yesterday despite some of the other pressures around the fx market, that stronger cpi print, 100 basis points risk from the fed is setting the tone. garfield reynolds is our chief fx and rates correspondent, here we are, the rates market is almost assured of 100 basis points. my question to you is, is the dollar fully priced for 100 basis points? garfield: it's quite possible it is price for 100 basis points. it is harder for it to price for that type of a move.

we have seen recession peers become realities in the bond markets. we have 50 basis points of cuts priced in for the second half of next year. we have some banks forecasting larger cuts. once you are getting that certain about recession on the table in the u.s., not so much in europe, and if it is going to come, it might not be as deep or it depends on what russia does. that's part of why, although the euro went just below parity, actually bounced back up. the other parties, there is a lot of money on the table that would face serious losses in the derivatives market once the euro goes through one dollar, there are a lot of strikes around there. so there are internal market reasons for that. there is also concerned that the dollar may start to price big rate hikes from the fed is a potential source of weakness.

because of what that will do to the economy, rather than as a simple source of strength. dani: the options levels built up around parity. that is bloomberg's chief correspondent for rates. inflation fears are forcing off cycle central bank moves in asia. let's get to annabelle droulers in hong kong. some concerns about what central banks are going to be doing, walk us through it. annabelle: enda spoke about those unscheduled moves from the monetary authority in singapore. in australia today we saw strong growth in the previous reading, 88,000 new jobs in the month of may, easily beating estimates for 30,000 extra positions. but that really did drive the overall unemployment rate down to 3.5%, near the lowest in five decades. another factor that could force the rba to do an outsized hike

in early august. let's get to china as well because it is not just this region but also the mainland that is concerned about the fears that we could see a 100 basis point move from the fed. we are hearing exclusively that regulators could be asked to review their overseas investment and spending plans. the concern is that any rate moves from that that could force some capital outflows. we have seen that weakness building into the chinese yuan over the past 12 months. it's not just officials, state owned companies are being asked to reconsider their overseas spending and investment plans. nothing official in place yet. it does underscore the challenge facing officials in china, this ambitious 5.5% growth target. we are monitoring any sort of stimulus announcements we get very closely.

bloomberg has crunched the numbers and we understand that $1.1 trillion could go toward that. about a fifth of that could go to infrastructure, through so-called special bonds. citigroup talking about this, seeing we could be entering a new era of infrastructure investment. manus: thank you very much, as sally tory morning in terms of the flow of money. we knew it was a heavy bitty war -- bidding war for deutsche telekom as its but we understand they are going to sell the telecom towers for a 10.7 billion euros cash. this was a tussle between the beasts of yield hunters, wasn't it? dani: it was brookfield and digital bridge beating out kkr. another company dropped out and there was a lot of back-and-forth, but finally cementing that deal with

deutsche telekom a 40% stake. manus: when you see brookfield coming in, doing the big pipeline deals, this is where they tussle, it is guaranteed yield and oil and gas in the pipes. these are infrastructure deals which deliver substantial returns. deutsche telekom will keep a portion of this deal. they are 40% but kkr and global input structures are probably a little disappointed. let's take a look at the agenda for the day. 7:00 a.m., we will be long gone, we will get swedish cpi and unemployment. dani: we will also get irish cpi at 11 a.m., by that point we be having our fifth copy at the net -- coffee at the ned. jobless claims will have the table at 1:30 p.m. u.k. time.

then it is bank earnings, jp morgan will be reporting today. manus: are we in a hurricane? dani: or is it clouds again? manus: is going to be important because if you think about the warning he gave, then six weeks later he says it is a hurricane, what does that do to mortgage rates and new home sales? so let's see what jamie will say about that, coming up on the show. which camera will they be? it's an exercise for the facial movement. we will worry about that later on. sonja laud joins dani and myself, the chief investment officer at legal & general with her call on the risk for 100 from the fed. dani: and we will look to those bank earnings when jp morgan is the first to release second-quarter figures. how many more times will hurricane be mentioned? this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the inflation report suggests that there is no reason to say a smaller increase than we did last time. dani: that is the cleveland fed president telling us exclusively that inflation risks are rising after a sizzling u.s. inflation print. a risk of a 100 basis point move is rising. at the moment, it is 92 basis points priced in for this month. of course, that that will not hike by 92. this implies that we have an even amount of bets between 100 basis point and 75. nomura out with a note that they think it is 100. manus: which asset class will

convulse the most on a 100 basis points hike, is it credit or the dollar? but if you want to understand jumbo, this is a heat map. it is a scorched earth policy map. those who have done jumbo rate hikes, canada the first to hike a hundred basis point since 1999. are we seeing emerging markets playing defense when it comes to the currency wars ahead of the federal reserve? sonja laud is looking at that heat map intensely. the chief investment officer for lgim. good morning, good to see you in the flesh and in person. sonja: very excited. manus: here we go. the rhetoric has shifted so quickly, hasn't it? swaps are priced at 100 basis, which asset class is fully priced for a volcker-style 100

basis point hike? sonja: good morning. it's important to understand how the narrative has shifted before we got to the point with the cpi print yesterday. if you look at markets from mid june, you have had a real shift from the inflation narrative to slowing growth, i.e. recession fear. with that expectation that that that might go for 100, you have seen the rates market move first. it was interesting to see that recession fears had taken over, and now you see this much trickier balancing act between inflation being far more persistent than we had anticipated, and a plateau to be expected potentially, and this is why rates and credit markets, and the dollar, will all react accordingly. it is more the direction of travel, whether it is 100 or 75, you will see immediate reactions

in the rates market, we have seen it yesterday in the front-end. dani: this is the wrong word, but the great irony of yesterday, i cpi where you get 100 basis points. bostic saying we will do whatever it takes, that sort of language. manus, help me out here? everything is in play. there we go. but at the same time, we have the chicago fed economic survey at its lowest on record, and a beige book that is becoming increasingly cautious. this is shipping out, how bad or mild will it be? sonja: this is what the market will have to find out. this stagflation ore picture for the second half will dictate how markets react. we then have a nice shift over to the growth worries, and have to focus on the question how hard it will be, because that

was the question, not if, but when. all expectations were for 2023, and now it has come forward, and how effective will the rate hikes be? this is the big question, how resilient is the u.s. economy, i.e. how many rate hikes will it take before we see the desired effect, i.e. nudging up the employment rate. manus: mohamed el-erian has talked about being careful at the speed with which you go because you could break something. maybe it is generational. my obsession, that is, and maybe i asphyxiate when i see a u.s. mortgage rate at 6.5%. for me, i think the u.s. housing market breaks first. sonja: this is the area to watch. we have to balance with the strength of the household balance sheet. manus: that runs out.

sonja: it does. dani: we are already seeing gasoline demand has fallen below covid levels. covid, everyone was supposed to stay indoors, and demand is still lower, are we starting to see cracks emerge? sonja: yeah, absolutely. you have so many mutual stresses hitting the consumer in the economy. you wonder whether consumer behavior will adjust the four we get to the usual stresses we expect on the back of the rate hikes. manus: where are we in credit? increasingly cautious is a gracious way of saying that we are not worried yet. how cautious on credit, and if so, where? sonja: this comes back to what i have just said. the volatility to be expected in the second half because of these forces that are hitting the market in terms of the growth concern, when it is going to slow and when the hard landing

will occur, versus the fact that inflation is far more persistent and potentially central banks have to do a lot more. hence the repricing rates and accordingly, in credit. if you have to be invested, understand where you are going, because we have not even talked about earnings and corporate resilience yet. that is a key feature when you want to engage in credit records -- markets, versus do you really want to go in an environment where there are so many moving goalposts. dani: manus and i just broke erickson earnings a moment ago, i miss on net margins. we saw delta earnings, they are very optimistic in their strength, but on the bottom line, they missed. is this going to be sector by sector, or is this going to be more widespread. manus: dispersion. dani: exactly. sonja: dispersion is good.

but you are spot on, this is why this second-quarter earnings will be so important. how resilient are sector business models, when the whole inflation narrative has shifted dramatically, how strong is your business model and how much input cost can you has on to consumers? what is the elasticity of demand on the end consumer, and that will determine how resilient your business model is going to be and how brought the miss will be on margins were earnings. dani: really great to have you this morning, that is sonja laud , chief investment officer at lgim. coming up, joe biden declares a deep bond to israel on his tour to the middle east as president. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is daybreak arab. -- it is daybreak europe. european equities were on the up, despite european union set to downgrade its growth outlook to 1.3 or 1.4%? dani: there is one theory y are doing ok. let me show you what yields are doing. perhaps the duration bid is filtering into equities. if you have duration big subtype will do ok. manus: my question is scorching hot api, a scorched earth policy response from the federal reserve. which as

manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am in london. these are the stories that set your agenda. dani: markets are 50-50 the fed will hike rates by 100 basis points this month after another scorching inflation risk. recession fears, the 10 year yield incursion -- yield inversion, while the euro drops in parity to the dollar. outlook in play. the eu set to cut its gdp forecast with accelerating price pressures amid the war in ukraine weighing on growth. everything is in play, according to bostick. he says everything is in place, it feels like fed speakers are

priming us for 100 basis points. manus: the question is are we exhausted? the rate by the end of this year it still around 3.4%? still heckuva lot of a way to go. dani: as we are getting more aggressive, why are stocks doing ok? i have heard so many theories. manus: explained to me, if i have a nearly 6% stock yield relative to treasuries, is that enough in itself? it is a buffer in the yield, do you need to buy stocks right now? dani: he said he doesn't like the neighborhood, it is the only house he would occupy. manus: these equity markets are banking. dani: they certainly are. in asia, a little flat. let's look at your process at pictures. a little more interesting than stocks this morning. manus: yen dollar is triumphant. wells fargo -- they talked about

perhaps it is not fully loaded unlocked in terms of expecting 100 basis points. the positioning on the dollar depends on the deepest inversion, huge consequences for the salt narrative. you could see this inversion dropped from 25 basis points to around 50. what does that do -- what does that do for the shape and scale of the hard landing? crude comes back, up .125% -- up to .5%. -- up .25%. the question is the markets positioning is not hugely assured relative to historical moments of great pressure in the euro dollar the conflict of rising yields is not affecting equities. dani: let me go through some of

the theories i've heard. we are looking equity markets hanging tight. perhaps it is fact we are already in a bear market, perhaps we sold off enough to account for the recessionary fears. perhaps it is the picture you showed of the yield curve. for and yields are going higher, there is big enough market for duration. perhaps that's why nasdaq futures, it ended flat yesterday, euro stoxx 50's futures up .3%, despite the fact we got a gdp downgrade from the area. it is ahead scratcher. sometimes the market isn't sufficient. manus: maybe it is time -- takes time to reflect more aggressively on this data. let's get to anna, she is here with the first word. >> bank of canada has hiked interest rates by with a full percentage point.

a surprise move. in australia, hiring boom -- the unemployment rate is the loss in almost 60 years, making the case for another increase next month. another bout today in the context to collect their new leader. the first style of voting emerged with a field of eight candidates narrowed down to six. italy's five-star movement says it will boycott a key boy -- keep up on a package today. five-star meeting -- italy faces an crisis. prime minister draghi has strongly signaled he would hand in his resignation.

-- if they boycott the boat. >> he left the country for the multis is months of inflation and protests gains momentum spirits protesters stormed the prime minister's offices, the prime minister has restated parliament will choose a new president next week. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus. dani: i'll take it from here. thank you so much alice atkins, alongside us in london. the chipmaker, seven point $9 billion in net profit. you also have a look here at an impressive gross margin. manus: ericsson missed on the margin. we will see how they react on that. tsmc, you're looking at 59.1%,

way above the estimate of 56.6 -- 56.8%. the dollar and earnings reports, which can boost the topline. you look under the hood, maybe the margins are different. there is a line you can get all the editors, talk about the strength of the dollar. it is likely to have a similar positive effect for tsmc. dani: they basically hedge their spending. it has been 16 point two 7 billion in the first half. that is their spending picture, perhaps noticing the home number there. it leads to the cost effort. it also leads to -- while dollar

might benefit tsmc. yes profits are going to be a strong because american companies are going to feel the squeeze from a strong dollar. manus: a couple things that come out. one is the dollar plate, two is the reduction. that has a huge impact in terms of global -- why comes to benchmarking these numbers, around 7.8%, that is not a big increase as we have estimated. thank you to debbie, on the terms of the innate income -- net income. dani: just fighting tsmc, up and trading right out in taiwan, nearly 1%. the entirety of asian markets more or less flat. manus: tech is going to be key function in that your session.

in the chips, let's see how that performs through the day. with joe biden making his first visit to the middle east and declaring a deep bond between the united states and israel. >> president biden just wrapped up his first day on his inaugural middle east to her as president of the united states. he was in tel aviv, and jerusalem. today he will have a joint press conference to make statements next to the caretaker prime minister. right now, israel does not have a government. they are looking ahead to elections in november. the main moment is going to come friday evening, or we now know president biden will sit down with saudi arabia has crown prince -- saudi arabia has crown prince. he will be the first president

traveling from israel to saudi arabia. this is going to be difficult for the president to draw the line at home. at one hand, he needs the kingdom's help. at the same time, he about when he was campaigning to make saudi arabia a pariah. dani: keeping us on top of that meeting. we are seeing oil at holding, dropping below 100 dollars a barrel. it is more about the demand story, the economic fears. manus: demand destruction is very present in the united states. your brothers and sisters, they're not spending it on gas. i think when it comes to gasoline demand dropping by 14% last week, what's is going on in these oil markets, so -- it

tight. on this trip, what could the president get? dani: jake sullivan things that can up production. there is a lot of skepticism whether they have capacity to do so. manus: but if you get saudi arabia to up its production, cannot run for a long period of time? what do you turn -- what to do in terms of spare capacity. we don't know what the share value might be. biden's opec date will be a transient solution. maybe it carries more risk. if you get another shot from russia in the back half of the year is up that leaves you with very small limited capacity to work with. dani: that is something we were talking about of the spr lease with that -- spr release with that. we will keep on top of the talks

as they continue. coming up, how have lenders fared over the past three months? we look ahead to u.s. bank earnings, jp morgan, that will be first. more to come throughout the week and next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews.

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manus: it's "bloomberg daybreak: europe." another bank earnings season upon us. jp morgan will set their plate up to the street, offering investors a sense of how they fared over the past quarter. expectations are for a sector which is mixed, focusing on the long divisions, reflecting their assessment and recession risk. let's get to our intelligence equity strategist. good to have you with us.

it is incredibly important what jp morgan says today. we are expecting a hurricane and we need to know what scale is in the numbers. set the stage, what are we looking for? >> i think for the sector at large, what we are looking for his weak results. the analysts have been marking down expectations for j.p. morgan, the expectation is this is the leader. it is a question of whether those provisions continue to accelerate. most of the sector has started to increase their loan loss provisions, a dramatic shift from a year ago, where they were releasing them. they will increase their loan loss provisions. everyone is looking at charge ups. is it going to result in higher charge ups? what we see deterioration in credit result in something more nefarious than a preparation for

something bad? is it really something bad? dani: when you think about the value factor, i think of banks and energy. the student to have such diverging stories this year. how do you approach value as a trade when the usual components of it are not acting the same way? >> the long leg of value has been almost entirely driven by energy and materials. what works better in value than anything else is the short leg, everyone is selling off all of their high-growth tech stories, which are the short leg right now. within the value factor is that what you have is divergent performance, where energy carrying along, it is not shortsighted. you've got to get financials participating to get the long valued stories working. it is a big component. it is difficult for value to work without financials, industries, and materials

working together. manus: we seen a huge amount of volatility, and destruction over the past six months. with that has been a quelling of the ipo frenzy, we are on fire. in dubai. on fx you see, what are you going to be focused on? >> what is in the banks, most of the focus will likely be on trading revenues because it was such a volatile second quarter. also, trading around credit and what is happening there. when we think about the consumer businesses in the standard banking enterprises, everyone is on guard for what is happening with credit. are we moving into another crunch? are we starting to see true loss. manus: do you think we would get enough evidence? we looked at the spreads, do you think this quarter will tell us

how tight credit is? >> note, i think we are going to have more mystery come out of this quarter than resolutions to concerns. the economy is still strong. every indicator is not yet. we have not yet seen unemployment rise, we have not yet seen ifns deteriorate. we have not seen any leading economic indicators in the u.s. the confirm the slowdown the market is trying to price. certainly in the second quarter, topline growth will be very strong. it is a question as to what margins with inflation and that creating the downdraft. it is not about weakening economic conditions yet, i don't think we are going to get that indication. we think it may deteriorate going forward, but the result will probably meet expectations. dani: how even well deterioration of margins be? we talked about tsmc, strong

margins, ericsson, week margins. >> when you look across the s&p 500, we look at nine sectors for their operating margin results. overall, index operating margins are anticipated to rise, but when you exclude the energy sector, they are falling, quickly. net income margins are starting to reflect the weakness as well. it is very divergent between value growth energy and the rest. manus: look at the other narrative as well. costs and remuneration, even in the downturns up when markets are tough, deals will come back.

how important is that line to you look at in terms of employee cost? >> it is more the other end of the story at this point, where everyone is looking at the floor, most companies are starting to scale back the openings they have available. no one actually laying off people. the question is, will they move into a new environment of layoffs, which justifies the markets position. manus: i think that is more a christmas story. >> i think so, for sure. as a specific reflection. dani: >> how much does that extend? are we just pulling jobs they are available on the market or actually going to start to lay off workers? layoffs are almost a necessary precondition for this recession to emerge.

thanks so much for joining us this morning. this is my dream come true. coming up on the show, one of the pillars of strength in the bond market. they are crumbling. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> this inflation is a problem. >> there is no slowdown in inflation here. >> domestic price structures are still quite strong. >> this is when amp up pressure on policymakers. >> it needs to keep moving. >> do we still think 75 in july? >> it is going to be difficult

to get off 75 basis point height. >> this morning's report seems to solidify that 75 basis points. >> we have to be careful. >> the rate rises are coming. >> we know growth is slowing, i think it should keep going. >> policy of slowing growth is not good for risk assets. >> they can slow down the pace, for i don't think they are anywhere close to stopping. manus: 75 is so passe. raphael bostic said everything is in play. governors said there's no reason not to do 75 basis points. swaps smart has gotten. dani: we are having -- i know how they put in their no overnight thing 100 basis points in july. the data is screaming 100.

manus: we haven't seen a curve this inverted. we are going to do stocks and then write. -- and then rates. we will come back to the inversion. these are three stocks to watch on the date, you had three big, beefy announcements. deutsche telekom, ericsson and psm. i'm deutsche telekom, they are selling all the assets. dani: that is there tower of retaining 49% of it. manus: 11 billion euros, infrastructure sold. versus going to be a happy man. he managed to bump off the roster, not our of the deal. it is going to be 10.7 billion in cash. buying those assets. dani: ericsson, this is interesting, topline was ok, the

bottom line, is amiss for second quarter profits. the ceo saying global supply chain situation remains challenging and inflationary pressures a strong. manus: you're going to see strong dollars of good margins, 7.8% of the estimate. we were looking around 90% on the net income. keep an eye on the chip stocks. the producer of the show will be happy we are going to go back to syncopation. dani: the deepest aversion since 2000. the wild warnings screaming out from bonds. manus: the question today, scorching hot cpi carried i'm calling it scorched-earth. what do i mean by that? maybe you do 100 and then 50, you got them expeditiously delivered between now and september. dani: from the yield curve,

let's get to the story in china. it is the property crisis, the debt soft expanding. let's get straight to our reporter, tom wilkinson hong kong. >> this is the one thing they've been trying to avoid, that the social unrest. we homebuyers across 22 and refusing to pay their mortgage payments, on this fear homes will be delivered. we are seeing that stress continuing to play out through the trade market and equity market, and credit, incredible self among developers, including some of the countries largest investment-grade names. manus: thank you very much. the risk in china on the credit markets. we will do how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton.

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