>> every developed market is facing the same problems in terms of higher inflation slowing growth and declining real wages. >> it will be a tough call for the fed to be honest. >> they let the inflation genie surge out of the bottle to quickly with the shift on a backward looking paradigm. >> this is " bloomberg:

surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning, this is bloomberg: surveillance wide -- live, once i tom keene --alongside tom keene and lisa abramowitz, i'm jonathan ferro. tom: mobile customers of 11%, the financials are buried in the supplemental report beginning on the attention you're going to hear that the press conference earnings calls or whatever you want to call them, return on assets year-over-year from a 1.29% down to 0.89%. tangible book value, this really says it all about fortress and jp morgan, tangible book value is up 1%. this is basically a big bank flatlining, that is a little harsh but flatlining given the

tumultuous times. jonathan: the headline in the last 10 minutes, suspending share buybacks. tom: absolutely. jonathan: the stress test kicking into the big way, we have seen massive directions. tom: i will let ousting williams tell me that it does matter. it is cautious, responsible, and it heats up over what we are going to see from the other banks. jonathan: the other disappointing factor is where you expect the strength to be trading, it did not show up. lisa: that is where people were expecting an offset on the investment banking side. on a bigger level, this is a negative bellwether, the behemoth bank coming out, hurting itself for that hurricane and putting their money where their mouth is in terms of what jamie dimon said. how much do we see this reflected in the rest of earnings at a time when there is so much uncertainty and people are building leverage? the debit and credit card

spending expanding rapidly as people dive further into their savings and basically catch the difference and keep spending. jonathan: are you for -- saying you don't find that consumer story? lisa: there are signs of weakness, and what is the potential can't -- consequence of building leverage into a downturn? especially the consumer balance sheet was healthy and strong, this defies logic. jonathan: lows down two point 7% on jp morgan, we were down five. one piece of the broader puzzle, because asset yields over the was 24 hours. the yield curve is inverted and fx a lot stronger. i thought that dollar-yen we can this morning would strike 140, it came back down but we are seeing big moves. tom: we are looking at jp morgan and i agree we need further

scrutiny on this major bank. it sets up the other banks. the headcount, 260,000 out of two at 78,000. mr. pinto and the rest of them, they want to know globally what is happening in the markets and there's a new fragility back over there 9%. jonathan: futures are -44, was put 45. -93 on the nasdaq 100, yields higher by three basis points on the 10 year, 296.60, the euro negative half, what happened to 150? 9380. lisa: it would indicate

inflation pressure is cutting off. right now, demand destruction, -- that has been confirmed by jp morgan earnings coming up. they are disappointing on the level, but the share buyback suspension highlights concerns and alarm bells, not only about the stress test but about the condition of the economic outlook. morgan stanley said to report any minute, citigroup and bank of america, the other behemoths you're are seeing even bigger drops. we will get the latest read on u.s. data initial jobless claims and u.s. june pti. we are looking at inflation data only causing the fed to double down in rhetoric in terms of aggressive rate hikes. how much are we reaching a pivot

point where people are saying the negative outlooks -- outcomes are looking more likely because the fed will be aggressive and keep going despite potential recession risk and the increasing likelihood? i 11:30, chris waller with michael mckee at the rocking on economic summit in idaho, talking about what this will be for him a chance at how fast he will go this month, not just september but the rest of the year. if you're .7% fed funds rate. we are bringing forward these rate hikes and they are getting more aggressive in terms of market expectation. that is changing through estimates on wall street. jonathan: i think the bid -- big conversation -- joining us now is the chief investment officer for wealth and investment management. always good to catch up. let's start with the numbers from jp. your thoughts. >> i think it is the first real

indication of ceo concessions asian -- concession season, the true impact of their earnings season we've been refusing to a knowledge -- acknowledge and the real impact of what is happening with consumers at the pump, at the grocery store, the real effects of inflation and financial conditioning tightening at the warp speed they have been tightening. it will show up in earnings, no place to hide on this. tom: there is no place to hide, darrell cronk, and they will be winners and losers in a bear market even. what are the distinction factors say with banks that will be a winner any bear market versus a loser in the bear market? darrell: for this earnings season specifically, it is a good question. sales and trade revenue, that will be the challenge because we

know all too well the first half of the year and the acute negative returns for equities and fixed income markets in the second quarter are just going to make those returns abysmal by any means. the traditional lending side, the consumer side and small-business side have shown it has been more resilient, although we are in the early stages of seeing some deterioration there. it probably is not going to show up as acutely in q2. we need to watch that. lisa: based on the real-time data, how much is jp morgan accentuating something we are seeing more broadly, versus a unique story in itself, that specific missive and a stress test with extreme scenarios and that is important given the cash we have right now? darrell: it is important and i think it is a telltale sign of southern more broadly. i don't think it is idiosyncratic to them. if you think how rapidly conditions have changed in the last month, a few weeks ago we

were positive 14 basis points, today we were -23. a few weeks ago, a month ago oil was $123 a barrel, now it is down, that helps the consumer. conditions are rapidly changing in front of our eyes and i'm not sure people have latched onto that and what it means for the second half. lisa: i would love your idea -- your take on the idea that we are seeing credit card loans, there is credit card spending and debit. how much does that indicate the challenge to the strong consumer balance sheet narrative? darrell: you hit it on the head, the market has been sold on how strong the consumer is, but through the stimulus of the pandemic, it helps the consumer, there were large cast balances -- cash balances. they have eroded.

the ovaries and excellent point, which is if you look at the fed data on consumer spending and that acquired outstanding's, increases, we have seen some of the largest increases in credit card outstanding in the last couple of months then we have ever seen on record for the data. that is ominous heading into a world where the economy is slowing, financial conditions are contracting, demand destruction is happening and to your point, the consumer is having to draw on revolving lines of credit in order to meet those spending needs at the pump and the grocery store. jonathan: awesome to get your views, darrell cronk of wells fargo, bank of america making moves. forecasting a mild recession this year. downgrading the outlook for equities, the year-end forecast goes from 4500 all the way down to 36. this comes in from the reit's, catching up with the team of bank of america. we follow the shift of a

recession call, and a 23 at 250. here's something that jumped off the page, one important shift in the review is on qt. there was great cuts -- there were rate cuts. tom: i will always see the floodgates are open by think of canada, living make it clear, that is shocking, and any cycle or historical -- i will go well, we remember that yesterday we researched see those changes. lisa: and how much they confirm the view or from jp morgan, especially since they are more on investment banking and the

trading side, a lot of people changing their outlooks. jonathan: futures down 1.3 on the s&p 500, yields up a couple of basis points on the 10-year and jp morgan this morning off the back of this, we were down about 5%. i will get the stock on of the bloomberg terminal, this will be look like now. down by three percentage points. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world with the first word, i'm equipped up. the fed may debate a historic 1% rate hike this month. the about a fed president said everything is in play after prices rose faster than expected, 9.1% in june. the fed is more than likely to break -- hike it by hundred basis points. according to the washington

post, allies are turning the -- telling the former president that before the midterm elections, they will drive turnout to help republicans take over congress. president biden and the prime minister discussed regional security in the meeting today after they said they wanted to make sure -- assessment the president echoes, pres. biden: humid -- president biden says -- a conservative party balancing today in a process that will determine the next prime minister, the candidates have been cut to six. trade minister penny morgan has emerged as a front runner. another big-name casualty from the $2 trillion cryptocurrency quest, the network -- it had

amassed more than $20 billion in assets by offering interest rates as high as 18%, they were withdrawals last month. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

>> inflation is too high, but we are starting to see especially in commodities, prices come down. we have seen that in terms of oil and gas, but other commodities as well. we're going to keep taking action to make sure prescription drugs, people are paying less going forward. jonathan: that was the u.s. treasury deputy secretary, good morning. price action lower by 1.25% of the s&p, down about 48. on the nasdaq 100, about .9%, 101. yields up three basis points,

crude lower by 2.9%, 9350. decimate 3.50. she call it parity, not going to argue it over 0.0014 come out we are at 1.0014 within half of 1%. looking at 140 potentially, dollar strength the big story and jp morgan coming out a bit earlier, about 40 minutes ago. the stock recovering a bit of session lows, now down just 2%. a suspending of the share buyback program. lisa: this is a broader story has been treated in the market. dxy going back more than a decade, we're taking a look now at an environment that is shifting rapidly. the fact that jp morgan responded to the stress test, we need to back down the hatches

and prepare for the hurricane. tom: it is time for a sea change. i think we will hear it from james dimon and his team. a british guy who invented modern banking, he took jp morgan from the starchy -- st odgy bank. -- you are seeing year-over-year, moving from a 40 statistic down to 54, i think i'm somewhat close here. the value at risk is not to be ignored. mr. diamond tackles this enormous bang -- bank. it is like the sonali kim. -- cam. she's going like this on the

phone. jonathan: the question this morning, i wonder if you can answer it the decision to suspend an share buyback, how much of this is a boost and the banks saying we're going to have some problems, are you ready for them? sonali: i think it -- the concern is the you are seeing its are to, but to his point, you do have a little strained when you're looking at the institutional side and for side. that is also concerning. the biggest jump was in fixed income. these were supposed to be fixed markets and jp morgan is a intermediary when liquidity is up. you have to worry about the

consumer side very rapidly. lisa: i want to talk about what the fed is worried about, neal donna said on twitter, behind door number one there is enough to push the economy into recession, behind two, training rates. the fed shows number one hands down and it is a pivot toward the recession. j the base -- jonathan: the base case is the recession, we can argue but the ultimate base case is that. you see at sea change from the of morning. there was a recession later this year, slashing the outlook for equities, no recovery. 4500 down to 3600. and then over the rate side,

basically the 10 year, year end 275, ask you to 50. tom: i think you'll see more of this, it is a reset here. you see it within the tension of jp morgan. we've got phenolic -- sent ali -- sonali here. they're going to work on the holidays and etc., but isn't that age-old solution to cut cost? sonali: there is -- it is the oldest story of the world. over higher and starts higher. you're starting to see that as mother consumer focused business, the mortgage business, what happens to the investment banking businesses? it was not just a little late,

it was $100 worth of midst. even debt underwriting, $7 million or so, that was more than $1 billion for jp morgan a couple of quarters ago. so it changes very quickly here and you've got to wonder what happens. tom: morgan stanley says in 30 minutes, 15 minutes -- for global wall street he's got to stay on this. this is a different jp morgan report and i'm fascinated, citigroup, morgan stanley, goldman sachs and the others. jonathan: in the next 30 minutes we should hear from mr. gorman and morgan stanley, we should hear from the president, too. we've been waiting for the press conference with the premise or the israel, it should take place on the border in jerusalem. about 20 minutes to go, still two empty podiums so we wait. tom: it's all being choreographed carefully and i

can't emphasize enough the history here. my head is spinning, the president traveling to jetta from air force one to israel, in my youth i cannot imagine that. jonathan: you will get numbers soon from morgan stanley, jobless claims as well, and then governor waller later with mike mckee. talk about busy. lisa: especially with the jobless claims. we do not talk as much about that but this is also the wildcard. could we see this pickup, not now but built up capacity to respond to a surge in demand, having to cut back because how much is that going to create swings? jonathan: you saw that with google. you might see that in job openings over the next several

months and that it is job cuts as well. that can happen quickly. lisa: that's why i'm wondering if there's going to be a tipping point. we talk about delta cannot not wanting to build the capacity even in the face of demands, because they're worried about being caught wrongfooted with capacity and that will be a chubby moment for the fed to deal with. tom: people get sorted out in bear markets. who has got the bathing suit on kind of thing. people are going to sort out given what we are doing and where we are moving to the profit makers in the nonprofit makers. jonathan: i would love to see lisa interview them because she loves to bring that out. lisa: [laughter] jonathan: she's got things to say. lisa: we are running out of time.

♪ jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. waiting for numbers for morgan stanley. equities down 1.3% on the s&p, nasdaq know it -- lower by .9%, one full percentage point lower.

morgan stanley net revenue 1.13 billing -- second quarter eps comes in at 1.39. trading numbers, two point nine 6 billion, the estimate two point 94. an upside surprise. wealth management, net revenue 5.7 billion. i guess you can call that basically in line. morgan stanley looking stark, down more than 3%. tom: i see a different story than jp morgan, much more focused. i would suggest it is wealth management to the rescue. i don't see the agony i saw immediately from jp morgan. in a powerpoint moments ago, i got to dive in. jonathan: 1.0 7 billion. i keep going through the numbers . an estimate of 1.2 7 billion.

your take? sonali: you do have them beat on equities and fixed income which is a strong showing from morgan stanley's trading desk. you had jp morgan bringing in $3 million of trading equities revenue so that is a stunning seat for what is normally the biggest trading shop on wall street. wealth management to the rescue, net interest revenue coming in higher at morgan stanley. we talked about the fact that the wealthier can sooner may weather rising interest rate environment as well as the inflationary environment better than those who are not earning as much. it is kind of as simple as that. jonathan: this line will resonate with pretty much everyone. more market until -- market volatile environment we've seen. alison williams joins us. your take on things, compare and

contrast morgan stanley against jp morgan. alison: the big difference this quarter might be capital. morgan stanley has very healthy excess capital. for jp morgan and some of the other big banks, feeling it from both sides. pressured by bond valuations on their actual capital ratio and requirements are going up. that was the big news we got a few weeks ago, the jp morgan, citibank america requirements going up. jp morgan suspending buybacks today. we think that's prudent but perhaps might have been surprising for some. in terms of the trading and fees, one thing i will point out on jp morgan, they had a big miss on fees but that was a leverage loan right down. morgan stanley might have that but in another business line. equities trading about in line for morgan stanley, a big surprise. interesting that morgan stanley

is the biggest in equities trading and softer than jp morgan, and the reverse is true on the fixed income trading. jonathan: morgan stanley down 2.5%. we will keep working through these numbers. the president of the united states along with the israeli prime minister in jerusalem at the waldorf-astoria, they will take part in a news conference. any headlines, we will bring them. on the bank story on wall street, equities down 1.3% on the s&p. morgan stanley, not jp morgan, big differences in the numbers. lisa: you see more strength in the morgan stanley numbers even though they missed in the headline figure. it is notable the profile of these banks. this is marv a traditional wall street bank in line with goldman sachs. how much can those banks do better than those more exposed to the consumer? i do wonder and i would love you to weigh in, how much are the

consumers facing the banks much more exposed to downside suit -- surprise versus the bread-and-butter of wall street? alison: i think that's right because net interest income is strong for those lenders that has been a factor driving the stocks since last fall. this year really the turn has been more towards the other side of things, the credit hit loss provisions. we did see a reserve build a jp morgan that was more than people thought that will be the focus for traditional lenders whereas morgan stanley and goldman sachs that are more focused on trading in the capital markets unit should benefit more from the volatility. goldman, we do expect to see a big increase in their provision. estimates have been rising. it is a percentage of their business, less exposure. tom: on the back end they have some dividends lists and a general share of buyback reduce.

-- redo. those that are fancy global wall street and those less so, the absolute miracle of an unadjusted wealth management pretext margin of 28.2%. to me, that margin is a near active guide. how do they do that? how do they make that so day on then profit up -- how do they make that so damn profitable? alison: wealth management. asset values are going down so that means lower fees but higher rates are a boost to the wealth managers and especially morgan stanley with their acquisition of e*trade, getting a lift. tom: i can't say enough about it. what i see worldwide as everybody is trying to copy james gorman, am i right? alison: wealth management, james gorman is sort of inactive buyer

but i would say ubs and credit suisse, credit suisse tilting more towards it, ubs has been shoring for a long time. all the banks globally, to your point, trying to increase their exposure to this business. keep in mind this isn't just a cyclical help from higher rates but the long-term story in terms of wealth creation especially in asia and financial services. jonathan: morgan stanley down a little more than 1%, down 2.7 on jp morgan. we've got a decent insight on the range of businesses and wall street from two names. as we set things up for bank of america, goldman, citi, what do you see? sonali: boy, is that trading environment competitive when you look at the set up for goldman sachs. they have to beat out on income and equities.

you see jp morgan blow it out of the waters compared to morgan stanley. i don't remember the last time they beat them. morgan stanley gaining share in fixed income, a few years ago it was unheard of them to be making more than $2 billion in fixed income trading. that and the pressures, you have asset management down meaningfully in terms of revenue at morgan stanley. jp morgan and goldman sachs are the biggest asset managers in the world. it is not immaterial if you see declines in those businesses even with those blowout figures involving management beating on pretax margins when you exclude the integrated related expenses. goldman sachs wants to take some of that and wealth management. lisa: there is the parlor game and horserace of who gets one business -- what business and the dollar higher on the heels of these reports because there is a macro wager in a holding

facture buyback and building the credit -- i'm wondering if you are waiting to see -- waiting to hear similar stories to see if they are position for a difficult next couple of months because they are more exposed to rid sentient -- recession bets. sonali: the macro got even harder and you heard them mute expectations. wells fargo will be interesting given their tied to the consumer and mortgage market. bank of america has been guiding the consumers steady but will they share the same concern of charge-offs? valuation, morgan stanley is committed to buying back $20 million worth of stock while jp morgan is suspending buybacks. morgan stanley is also more expensive. all of these businesses are still very volatile and subject to the macro environment. tom: alison williams, looking at

headcount. jp morgan $260,000, morgan stanley 78,000 now. who are they hiring? alison: i think in general the hiring we will see this quarter relates to some of the campus hires coming on. for morgan stanley, probably the bigger story which i think bloomberg has reported on his mortgage banking, a business where we expect to see headcount coming down. in general, you pointed to the big employee base of jp morgan versus morgan stanley. keep in mind the branches they have that really sort of fuel that higher staffing, the long-term story in terms of resizing those branches and becoming more digital and the like. i would say the one thing we are focused on as well this quarter with global investment banks is the compensation pressure and what's happening with the investment banking headcount

because that's where we saw pressure coming into this year, record ipo's and mna last year. obviously that is not the story this quarter and as we look to the second half and listen for investment banking pipelines and execution, we think there could be more softness. jonathan: it's a very different year, alison williams alongside sonali basak. futures down by 1.4%. we will push this forward to a conversation about the economic data in america. eight: 30 am, ppi data, factory -- just want to take you to europe. take a listen to this from president macron -- we have to prepare for the possible cut of russian gas and the citizens and companies will need to reduce energy use. europe front and center of a global recession call that is quickly becoming consensus. tom: i would say that's still

true with the e.m. upset. jonathan: subadra rajappa will join us from socgen on the backside of a surprise on inflation in america, futures down 1.4% on the s&p. in new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. the u.s. senate is getting closer to a deal on president biden's economic agenda but that tax issue threatens to spark a showdown among democrats. joe manchin has been negotiating with chuck schumer. mentioned says the federal deduction has not been in the mix. that could doom the bill's prospects. the house has passed a bill to help governments set up a warning system for active shooter's. it gained new urgency after

shootings in texas, new york, and illinois. republicans call it an encroachment on the rights of gun owners. euro area's rebound from the pandemic will be weaker than anticipated and inflation will be faster because of the war in ukraine. according to projections by the european commission, gdp is likely to rise 2.4% this year and 4% next year, inflation averaging 7% in 2022. -- has moved a step closer to european union antitrust investigations on how the giant uses rivals' sales data. the european commission is asking amazon competitors for a feed -- for feedback on a settlement and says they engaged with the ec. manufacturing has raised its forecast but semiconductors warned they would triple

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♪ >> if they need another 75 in july, three more 75 rate hikes i the end of the year i think they would do it. do i think that is appropriate? absolutely not. to maintain credibility and try and get some sort of relief from prices, their hands are tied. jonathan: she says one -- who says one data point doesn't change anything? one shift up yesterday, futures down 1.4% on the s&p, down by

one full percentage point on the nasdaq. yields a full basis point. we will talk about italy. do not take your eyes off of europe, your 10 year in italy up 10 basis points, your 20 year up 25 points. the government led by draghi to collapse, akron speaking like this, the french president saying -- macron speaking like this, the french president saying we need to reduce energy use. nord stream 2 one closed for maintenance. the ecb has got to somehow make a rate call. no idea how they will do that. tom: it is a real movement in the market. further curve inversion. -27. we are halfway to pre--- pre-a miserable -- pr -- we are still

not through the parity watch, 1.00. the american audience including a dummy like me needs to understand the stress of mr. macron. robert m cole is up 700 10% off the moving averages study back two years. he is up 103% since the ukraine evasion. -- invasion. jonathan: i would throw in chancellor schultz and prime minister draghi. a tough winter is the base case. tom: correlations in place, -52 on futures. subadra rajappa joining us. what's the correlation that matters to you, only -- not only in rates but outside rates. subadra: everything is a correlated market. what is happening in europe is

impacting the u.s. inflation is a global phenomena. what we are seeing now is -- slow motion where in the u.s. you see a steady rise in inflation, the grad acting efficient -- acting aggressively and then a sharp inversion of the yield curve. the markets trying to price in a higher probability of a recession, leading to potentially fed funds rate peaking around 3.25%, 3.5% and then cuts priced in next year. this is very much what you would expect would happen in a scenario when the fed is very aggressive. as far as europe is concerned and the ecb, they are in a much tougher spot. you are looking at very high inflation, headline inflation because of higher energy costs and oil prices and potential

rationing you have to be concerned about growth. there is a shutdown of nord stream which will lead to a sharp decline in growth. jonathan: we need to be building up gas storage in germany. apparently now we are working it down. this is problematic. more broadly for the bond market i'm trying to work out what the anchor of global rates will be. over the last 20 years it was japan, the ecb, europe and the bond market, and now the doj completely unknown -- boj, completely unknown. how do you come up with the treasury call as you think about the fixed income universe? subadra: to me at this point, the anchor is the treasury market because things in the u.s. have much more -- than other jurisdictions. bank of japan has yield curve

controls that will remain. there's a lot of pressure on the currency side so at some point they will have to move away in japan. what i am really anchoring our rate forecasts on his the 10 year desk is the 10 year end -- is the 10 year and trajectory for growth. it will be difficult for years to write -- yields to rise meaningfully given that growth is poised to decline meaningfully with the fed expeditiously hiking rates over the next three to six months. lisa: let's take that a step further and build on bank of america downgrading their forecast for the yield differential and the baseline yields for 10 and 30 year treasuries, how low and have you been revising lower your expectations for those yields based on a deteriorating

economic backdrop? subadra: our view for the different treasuries and yields will take some time in the second and third quarter, we might have already peaked. after that we have a steady trajectory of yields going low from here on after, perhaps ending at 2.25% to 2.5% next year. that's the trajectory we are looking at. it is quite a dramatic move lower in yields that it is about the trajectory for growth after the fed has adjusted its -- raised rates and addressed inflation. lisa: this hinges on the idea that the fed will not be able to shrink its balance sheet toward the middle of next year because they will have to backtrack in the face of recession. subadra: that's a good question because the whole policy framework gets very tricky this time around, even the fact that after september, it will decline

around 95 billion a month, that is a very rapid case of unwind starting as early as september. -- balance sheet unwind starting as early as september. the fed may be able to raise rates to 3.5% by the end of the year but then we will see the balance sheet drawn off after, tightening financial conditions as well. they will continue to run off their balance sheet through next year considering they will have to cut rates to slow the economy down. jonathan: what a 24 hours, subadra rajappa of socgen. what a year. people are screaming as i say those words. look at this market, a simultaneous shift lower in a 10 year yield and a shift higher in a two year yield. you've got a more inverted yield curve.

the yield curd -- curve deeply inverted going back to 2000 levels. 325 basis points and the fed keeps going and if they do, gross expectations keep coming lower. tom: i had a banner out earlier, and we have to say how rare this is. for the first time, i can agree with you that the word "deep" is in order on inversion and i put that is a quarter percent differential, 25 basis points. we are through that -26 basis points. jonathan: here's what i heard this morning. tom: march 1980 9, 2000. jonathan: futures down on the s&p. this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

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