tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg July 19, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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major market open. sophie: netflix sees a return to growth as we report a smaller than expected a subscriber loss thanks to stranger things, shares are jumpy after hours. haidi: the s&p 500 seen the biggest gain in more than two weeks. shery: twitter has scored an early win as the trial is fast track to october. annabelle: u.s. future is gaining ground. this is after we had the s&p 500 closing at session highs, all of industry groups gaining ground. it has been a volatile earnings season. an excuse to gain ground for the
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markets at this point. the 10 year yield, a rebound in oil prices in the new york session about $100 a barrel. look at after hours trading, twitter was gaining ground, the decision by the judge in delaware, we have no place continuing to gain ground on the expectation. the hasbro, we saw them rally after the biggest toy company in the u.s. has pressure. ibm reversing some of the earlier losses after earnings disappointed. annabelle: something else that the company may be happy about is the weaker dollar than we are seeing as well. those moves in treasuries, scaling back on the aggressive fed. we have seen the dollar rally taking a bit of the pause. we are seeing something that is contributing to his the outflows
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from korea, taiwan, india -- i'm tripping to the outflows from the outflows from korea, taiwan, india. heidi, look at quite a negative survey as well. heidi: pessimism and expectations of recession. exposure to risk and a dire economic outlook is what is at play here. growth and profit expectation is sinking to an all-time low. the highest since the pandemic slowdown back in may of 2020. investor allocation has fallen to levels we have seen last time
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in october. annabelle: you have the economy with what is happening with retail traders, amateur traders diving into this volatile currency trading world and we are talking about them being enticed by the fact that the euro fell. it is a volatile environment. that comes with risks. let us talk as some after hours trading and the earnings we have got, and inflicting a return to growth after the company lost 900 70,000 subscribers, less than half of what wall street geared thanks to -- 970,000 subscribers, less than half of what wall street fears thanks to stranger things. what surprised you in this earnings season? >> it was a mixed bag.
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stranger things is a smash hit, it a has a first four weeks, 1.3 billion hours viewed. a huge success and i guess contributing to less bad numbers. less bad in a way, i think that is what is sparking the relief rally here. if you look a little deeper under the hood at the third quarter guidance, it is almost uninspiring if you will. you have numbers that are at least 50% lower than what the consensus was expecting. there is a return to growth, seasonally, the second half is stronger than the first half and they do have a content slate that is wrapping up pretty nicely. those numbers inspire confidence in the turnaround. we have to wait and watch. the online a couple of initiatives to reignite subscriber growth -- they
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announced a couple of initiatives to ignite subscriber growth. they are delivering on their service, still, very much they show me story. -- a show me story. heidi: putting it into context as we hear more comments from the webcast, netflix saying that it is tough losing one million subscribers. also commenting that linear tv is over and really this subscriber loss, if you break it down a is still pretty alarming, when you take a look at how much loss has been taken in the major wealthy market like north america. >> they gave us the breakdown by region and in europe, europe, canada -- u.s., europe, canada, there was substantial customer losses. latin america was split and the only market to post any growth
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over one million subscribers was the asian market. that is not going to be enough in order to kind of give us some clarity on the subscriber trajectory long-term. we have to hear more from the earnings call to see how they are going about it. shery: what are we expecting in terms of the impact on the results as well? >> that is going to have a huge impact on financials. you have a tremendous weakness as far as the subscriber numbers are concerned. you have the dollar, the strengthening dollar, affecting financials pretty substantially. in terms of revenue growth it is going to affect our revenue growth. 55% of netflix's revenues come from overseas markets. the operating margins, you have 60% of revenue coming from foreign countries, 100 percent
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of expenses are dollar-denominated. there is the disproportionate impact and that is probably going to fall to the bottom line as well. they reiterated their margin guidance. i am not sure that investors are completely confident with that goal. heidi: the latest on netflix. you can also turn to bloomberg, dayb is where the analysis is coming from. bloomberg's team of expert editors are reacting as we get there webcast. u.s. stocks are surging into a broad base rally. speculation is that the market is close to bottoming out. we turn to orfield reynolds. we were talking about the bfa survey and how pessimistic surveyors are as inflation expectations are alleviated, this stagflationary state of
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mind? >> it is understandable that a lot of investors have driven money away from equity. there has been such a toxic mix of dynamics going on out there from the revival of covid zero shutdowns in china and the impact it has had, growing political tensions with china and the russian invasion of ukraine and what that has done. you have inflation taking off and the fed taking -- acting aggressively to combat that. understand when people pullback, the big question a lot of people have also been asking is our weight there yet? -- are we there yet? are we at the bottom?
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some people are taking this survey as among the signs of this is the case. heidi: are we there yet for the top of the dollar? >> part of the first higher overnight is the reports that the ecb will consider a 50 basis point hike. the ecb and students a to the dovish side. -- tends to disappoint to the dovish side. if there is a turnaround there, if there is also some concerns about european gas and the big concern, you cannot be sure that the dollar has peaked until you have seen what the fed says when
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it meets next week, what it will do or how to investors -- and how do investors react to that? it has coincided with the fate going into its quiet period before next week's meeting. shery: you have retail investors, amateur investors with the fomo trades. check that out on the bloomberg. orfield reynolds, let us get over to vonnie quinn with a the first word headlines. >> china is ramping up testing. 22 million people in shanghai are going through another round of covid testing. authorities are focused on cities who are under lockdown. macau is aiming to reduce a business and social activities
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as the city's case is easy slightly. the european central bank may go big, for the first time in more than a decade. policymakers may boost rates. inflation has surge to an all-time high. 50% chance of a half-point hike this week from 20% on monday. chile's attempt to prop up the pace out, mario stressed that the copper industry would remain competitive despite plans to raise taxes. the new government would protect the reputation for fiscal discipline. once we are approaching this with an openview -- >> we are approaching this with an open view. also the security of the
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environment for the new investments in mind. that are necessary for the country and we have a competitive mining ministry -- industry and we do not want to harm that. >> cryptocurrency sector is a full-fledged credit crisis, he acknowledged he was wrong about the magnitude of leverage in the system for calling out regulators for not doing enough to protect investors. he says the worst is over and he expects bitcoin to surge. >> the magnitude of losses that would show up in professional institutions' balance sheets. it turned into a full-fledged credit crisis. what complete liquidation, and huge damage -- with complete liquidation and huge damage to the infrastructure of the space. >> global news 24 hours a day,
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on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. shery: round one of the elon musk versus twitter panel has gone to the social network with the tote fast-track in the trial date. we learn more later this hour. heidi: penn's wealth management wants us to explain the three p's underlining a bullish outlook. this is bloomberg. ♪ as a main street bank, pnc has helped over 7 million kids develop their passion for learning through our grow up great initiative. and now, we're providing billions of dollars for affordable home lending programs... as part of 88 billion to support underserved communities...
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move quite aggressively and appropriately due to the inflation pumping into the economy. try to follow the policy moves. we are impressed with what they are doing and combating inflation. we think it is so far, so good. shery: let us bring in our next guest who has increased up cash positions. the president of penn's wealth manage -- pence wealth management. when would you make the decision
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to deploy cash? >> we would increase our cash position anywhere between 10%-20%. the normal position would be about 2%. some of the cash came from bonds because bonds have been a problem with higher interest rates. we have planned to deploy that. we do not have a cost average out of the market. we plan to bring it in as we see what you call the three p's. a peak in inflation, some sort of peace in ukraine or unification that of the war is coming to an end, or the pause from the federal reserve. the federal reserve has not paused and the rate hikes have helped financials. shery: you actually like that, what you think about the latest earnings seasons from the big banks? >> i really like them a lot.
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the net interest income will be a big headwind for the earnings and as you just said, they are looking to raise interest rates. i talk about reducing the amount of rates. we expect 75 basis points next week. and 75 basis point in december. the number could go down to 50% -- 50 basis points instead of 75. i would be a reduction of the increase and that would really help the market and indicate that inflation is coming. it is going in the right direction. for banks, the net interest income that they are making is substantial and they will continue to make it because interest rates continue to go up. hopefully not as much as they have anticipated because inflation will come down. the cost for them to actually bring in business is negligent
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because they have plenty of business with the report. they do not have the cost to actually bring in new money. annabelle: how are you factoring in the strength of the dollar and do you think we have hit a peak? >> i believe in the last three days in the market has been recovering because the dollar has been coming down. i believe that is because the ecb is increasing their interest rates and shoring up the euro. that dollar strength reduces strength of the dollar, we think that will be good for multinational and our markets. the market reacted favorably today. heidi: the other thing you are watching is the fed, have the recent issues in politics informed those opportunities there? >> the fed?
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heidi: the fence, you are instructed on the fence? >> yes. very constructive on the fence. we think that there is the increasing in spending and with the war in ukraine, the nato countries are going to have to spend at least two percent of gdp to defend and those defense companies have all of the headwinds. the demand will continue. the war in ukraine will change how we look at defence forever. defense spending will have to come from our u.s. companies. shery: we have the results from netflix today. less bad is actually good, it does not mean that the results were pretty good.
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it has been a high-stakes earnings for the technology sector. is there anything in the area that you like? >> i like the semiconductors. we have seen the semiconductors compared to the rest of technology, really undervalued. many of them have dividends. the ratios are reasonable and the demand continues. especially when it comes to data centers and that kind of need for semiconductors. we like that area out of all of the technology out there. shery: always good to have your thoughts. coming up next, the twitter take over a socket is set to head to court after getting fast tracked for an october trial against elon musk's wishes. more on the multimillion dollar lawsuit up ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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heidi: here is the quick check of the business flash headlines. china will find didi global. beijing will allow the company to restore the mobile stores and add users. investors have been awaiting the penalty for didi since a potential violation of data security. shery: google and facebook have about a two indonesian regulations on digital sales tax. they are the last media platforms to submit business registration within indonesia. this grants the government to tax the ability to tax digital products. heidi: elon musk is being sued
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over his abandoned twitter buyout. this is about whether he could prolong the trial date given elon musk's arguments is just how much preparation and document review needs to happen before then. what have the time just been thinking about selecting a trial date? >> katie mccormick, the judge in this case, she made that clear today, she gently chided the mu sk team for how quickly delaware can handle these cases and a headache trial date -- and set a trial date. shery: why is the date important here? >> twitter says that musk
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walking away has thrown a cloud over the company, shares of traded down, people are questioning whether the future of the company. that is called irreparable damage when it comes to merger acquisition. the quicker this is resolved, the quicker the cloud gets lifted and the better for twitter. heidi: they talk about the idea of imminent harm to the company and creating a cloud that continues to go over twitter. how does that inform how quickly once it begins this process could actually play out? >> again, we are talking about a trial in october, informally, judges hand down their decision within 90 days. we are talking about december, roughly. there will be time for an appeal. sometimes it takes years to have these cases adjudicated in the american courts. this will have to have this done
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in months. it is the quickest way to get a resolution. heidi: reporting from delaware with the latest on elon musk and twitter. looking ahead, the bank of australia is speaking at the strategic business firm in melbourne. we are watching his remarks, treasurer will announce a review of the central bank. this is the first independent examination 84 decades and inflation targets will be model of the things in focus. morehead, this is bloomberg.
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talking about how it is tough losing 1 million and holding it a success despite the rally we see in the stock, moving away from price increases advertising . it becomes a substantial, most of the content on netflix today can have ads. heidi: let us get more analysis, the chief analyst at analysis research. this is the conditional i vision of what it takes to be in netflix, losing that many subscribers a is hard to call that a win. when you break it down by region, you see a big losses come from a big market like north america. how much growth outside of asia. -- not much growth outside of asia. >> setting expectations. what netflix did is they set the appropriate expectations last quarter by saying it will be a leap that next quarter and then
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meeting what they said. although it was a loss, big profit in the u.s., even more streaming services and a lot of focus and attention to make. they did beat what they said, they will add more than that many next quarter. we will be back on track. it is about setting expectations and the market reacting favorably to that. they have the other things in the works. they have been talking about advertising for a while, how to monetize all of the passwords -- web shared passwords. they are going to start testing advertising in 23. i think a little clarification is also a good thing for the company. there is uncertainty on what is this advertising going to be and how much of an impact will it have? it sounds like it is more of a
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lightweight experiment that they will play with for a bit before they figure out which i think implies less impact to normal viewers and not too of a problem as long as they have good shows. heidi: it is the revenue model and what weeks they can make the is the big question. you have to remember since 2016 we have actually seen the user revenue grow substantially. they are mechanical dollars a user. that is 50% higher than it was in 2016. how much higher can take it from here? what other things could they potentially do? they are the market leader, given that there is a lot of competition. >> they have reached 2 million subscribers -- 22 million subscribers around the world. they get a lot of content and we
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could see them to a variety of different options. there are all kinds of things that they have done. they want to be able to do entire series at once. we have seen a lot of other seen streaming services dropped one episodes at a time. they could drive more revenue, there is the opportunity with advertising and there is 100 million households that they are claiming, they are using a shared password. monetize a little bit of those households, that is an significant upside -- a significant upside. >> i think that they saw me on the bench watching -- binge w atching wall. >> they talked about it during earnings. we see the dollar be a factor, no doubt about it.
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at the same time, it would not be out of the realm of possibility that netflix says our costs are higher and we have to pass that on and they raise their prices. that is another way that they can be generating a bit more revenue to do a modest price increase based on the presumed effectors around the economy around the world. shery: how close are you watching the or developments with twitter and elon musk? where do you see this going? >> is the nightmare that it is a night -- it is a nightmare! he talked a big talk and recognized i offered way more money than this is worth and is trying to find a way to get out of it. people have a about the bot situation -- people have known about the bot problem.
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it is an issue, but is a known issue. it will be an interesting test. what happens? musk does it buy it, he pays a lot more money than he wants to, what happens to the platform? there are serious questions there. even if twitter wins, they could lose. it is not necessarily a great scenario. the only potential good thing is with twitter shareholders if they can get the price that musk offered them. that is a big agreement over the stock. >> would you buy twitter? >> i would not. you never know what is going to happen. i think that there are those concerns and that is what is mumbling around when people think about this.
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what happens to the platform itself once all of this shakes out? if they can get this done quickly, there is less impact to the overall value of the company and the platform. that is several months away and it will be interesting to see how that plays out. it is messy and i think it speaks to the challenges we are seeing around social media valuations in general anyway. shery: the court bottle will be really interesting. we will have you back. let us get to the first word news. >> the european union is proposing a 15% national gas use. russia may hold supplies, the goal is a reduction plan. they are coping with a full cut off by moscow. the measure includes a mandatory trigger of the situation worsens
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and voluntary curves are insufficient. gas exports through the nord stream 2 pipeline have been reduced. it will resume when maintenance ends. it will remain below normal after the russian gas giant caters to european clients. legislation was blocked in the senate, president biden will make a speech on wednesday not to let an impasse in congress. urgent client action. they are considering a second emergency declaration which would unlock sweeping powers to tackle global warming. a three-way contest is emerging for sri lanka's new president. two of the candidates have links to the former leader's party. suggesting that the plan will have power over the new government. global news 24 hours a day,
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on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. shery: a new bank of america survey shows a global growth optimism is at an all-time low. but a spring in annabelle. -- let us bring in annabelle. i always look forward to this, market sentiment is not great. what does that mean for asian markets? annabelle: let us take a look at the seven day. respondents saying a contraction is likely. we are approaching the levels we saw at the outset of the pandemic. we could see a rally. the fundamentals are looking weaker. it is pretty much bad news. we have seen asian stocks dropping around 50% on average. it can take more detail, it does
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mean on a market multiples, all of them have gone down. a could drop around 20% for asian stocks -- it could drop around 20% for asian stocks. we look at the recommendations here. this is some of them. heidi: we are wondering what this means for the dollar and whether that has peaked. do see the bearish sentiment for the yen? >> you have the bull and the bear. strategists in japan, boosting their bearish bets, hit a record. a couple of factors for this saying that there could be further weakness ahead. stick with the easy policy setting, there is also the dollar smile and the dollar benefiting in times of growth and during a recession.
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let us look at what the bulls are saying. they are located outside of japan. they are basically saying that there is a limited scope here for rate differentials to turn more negative, that was a key driver of yen weakness. the yen hitting 120 five this year. heidi: it has taken chilean petrol to new lows. the finance minister is reassuring investor with the after a hectic week propping up the peso, things will be all right. he told me that the new government would maintain its fiscal discipline and keep its call for -- copper industry competitive despite raising taxes. >> there are many factors
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combining into inflation which is basically one of the factors in the economic environment. last year we had a huge import on domestic demand at out construction from the government on the pension fund withdrawals. during our account balancing, and was a large deficit and that put additional pressure on the exchange rate. in the shorter run, i think that the shift in the world economy, and may have a complicated way for markets to adopt and adapt and adjust. it would be effective as well. shery: will the central bank need to do more? >> i think that the markets
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already heard the central bank acting in a time where seeing those. we are pretty clear that it was increasing beyond what might have been justified. in a matter of two days, when the central bank intervenes, it is suited out and three days later, we not only have a stronger peso, we also have an interest rate back to where they were. shery: you are not expecting to do more? >> i do not think it will be necessary. shery: you said that the currency crisis is not an issue because you have had foreign currency because of copper. commodities are plunging at the
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moment. do you worry at all? >> copper took a strong hit in the past few weeks. there was some catching up from prior developments that have not affected the price of copper. the economy in china is the largest copper consumer in the world. i think that the corporate is so important, it is a source of foreign revenue. it has a strong coordination with the peso. with nearly 20% drop in the price of copper, you will see a drop in the currency. shery: is anything being discussed? >> discussion begins tomorrow, i would move from the airport to congress. we are approaching this with an open view. the most important thing is
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securing the revenue targets we are trying to set. also the security environment for investment in money that are necessary for the given amount of the country and where we have a competitive mining industry and we do not want to harm that. heidi: mario's to be excessively with sherry earlier -- mario speaking exclusively with shery earlier. they will have a final report by march 2023. the experts believe the -- lead the review, a wide ranging review of the central bank is being announced and part of the targeting will be the inflation targeting framework under review as well as australia's monetary policy rates. it has come under criticism because as of late last year it
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nobody really knows, it turned into a full freight -- full fledged credit crisis. >> we like it when markets are stable. that is in the long run a what creates it more activity. >> the emergence of identity solutions and a bunch of exciting stuff element the ecosystem feel safer. >> some of the guests at the crypto summit. let us get more from our reporter. taking a look at the price action, how significant is this breaking out of the range bound scenario? >> is pretty significant because it rose above 23000 and that is
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a level that was last seen in mid june. it was a scene after the collapse of crypto lenders. as always, we have ether, we have 11% in solana. this is a welcome relief. bitcoin has been trading in a tight range between 19,000-22,000. the 23,000 was bitcoin is finally going to spark a relief rally. we have some analysts like katie , she thinks it is premature to call this the start of a lasting rally. bitcoin has been overbought in the past days. it is clearly an optimism. bitcoin has cleared the 50 day moving average. shery: there is a reason that it is range bound. we have a tightening global monetary policy.
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not to mention the risk off sentiment that we continue to see affecting the crypto price action. >> sentiment is really bearish in the space. maybe this rally will be taken as a consolation by many people and the crypto summit, they are thinking this is a five-year forecast of 500,000 when it comes to bitcoin. it depends on who you ask. the polls are -- bulls or all of these people and the bears are always there. stocks that are equities, when it comes to bitcoin, and other crypto, it is a question. shery: there is a the regulatory challenges. singapore broadening regulations. be sure to tune in to bloomberg radio to hear more from the big newsmakers and get analysis from
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review independent panel review into the reserve of australia in four decades. this is between a monetary, fiscal, and a macro proof policy. the culture and operations is according to a statement from the australian treasurer. we have been expecting this we are getting more details when it comes to the continued appropriateness of the inflation targeting framework. this is a looking at making the right moves for the people. we are looking at a panel of three experts from australia, including an monetary policy expert from the bank of england as well as individuals independent of the rba. quite a lot of criticism over the projections and guidance in particular until late last year. they were still saying that rates would stay low until 2024.
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we know that this is the situation and that the fast pace of tightening has been different in reality. shery: they have urged australia to conduct a review when it comes to monetary policy, we are watching the inflation targeting to keep cpi gains between 2%-3% over time. here is a quick check of the headlines. netflix shares rose in a print out the results showed that losses were not as bad as expected. 970,000 subscribers were lost in the second quarter. they expect to return to growth and sign up one million subscribers in the current quarter. twitter has scored an early win against elon musk. in a bid to make them complete his buyout, a delaware judge has agreed to fast-track the case with an october trial date. musk's legal team argued
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that they were pushing the trial. controlling stake in a taiwanese retail operation is being sold to enterprises. it is a value of $2 billion and is expected to close in the middle of next year. it is refocusing on the core region in europe and latin america, and is it up their first outlet in 1989. airbus and boeing are working on securing big deals from air india. they are growing more confident off of securing a landmark purchase of 51 body jets. boeing is working on a deal for as many as 100 50 of its 737 max. coming up in the next hour, as a principal global allocation
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