>> we are still in an environment where we had the headwinds we have had for most of the year. >> the key to continuing growth is the consumer. >> while inflation risk is on

the way down, recession risk is on the way up. >> we are looking for some pretty aggressive near-term hikes. then i think the fed will relax a little bit. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning. lisa, jonathan ferro, tom keene. tomorrow, and ecb meeting of immense importance. kailey leinz is in for lisa. we have to frame right now, we have not done this today. lagarde coming out with statements at 7:00 and then happens? jonathan: we need to find out a few things. what to they do with interest hikes?

maybe a slight lean toward 50. not for me personally, but some are offering that proposal. most people, the consensus view is 25. then we need to work at what is happening with the bond buying program. the new tool that is set to prevent fragmentation. the other issue, italian politics. on top of that, the ecb. you have to work out what happened with russian gas as nord stream comes back online. four things that you have to watch tomorrow. tom: for americans, it is all confusing. we go back to observing the markets. very good equity pricing over the last 15 days. jonathan: really nice gains yesterday. every group on the s&p are

positive. netflix was not as bad as expected. if you expect to million subscriber losses and you end up with one. the big test for tech is next week. tom: kailey from virginia writing, hey, stupid, it is 8:00. thank you for keeping me on the straight and narrow. we talked to annmarie hordern about it. the silliness in washington over climate, at the end of the day, it is not funny. jonathan: -- kailey: this is a campaign issue for president biden. instead, he has asked oil producers to pump more fuel because we are seeing high prices at the pump. on the climate front, the messaging is difficult. he would have liked to get

something done legislatively, joe manchin said no thank you, so he may announce some executive orders. tom: i was frozen yesterday by the video of a village in greater london, actually burning to the ground. were you surprised by that? jonathan: i was surprised how hot it got, but i will say this, i am not surprised by the consequences. ultimately we don't have the infrastructure to deal with it in the u.k. it is unexpected. the question is whether you should expect more of it in the next few decades. we are guided by the scientist to believe that is the case. tom: i would urge you to become familiar with bloomberg green, trying to bring in the science, mix it in with the emotions of climate change, whatever your thoughts are. the market is up three or four days. the level 1 statistic is the vix to 24.3.

jonathan: the nasdaq 100, down .1%. in the fx market, the euro is slightly weaker. 101.96 going into europe's big day. tom: scott clemons has noted, we are in the middle of it. a single moment where he stops and cuts to the chase. markets, when they turn, they turned quickly. scott: they do, and they do unpredictably. it is interesting to go back and look at what headlines we confronted on the days the market bottoms, like in march of 2020, march 2009. markets are forward-looking mechanisms.

they always bottom quarters, sometimes a year before the news flow begins to turn better. tom: are we there right now? scott: i am skeptical. predicting a market bottom is more of a job for market historians than investors in the moment. if you press me on the issue, i would say it doesn't feel like it yet. we have not seen the outflows from equity mutual funds, don't seem to have any of those capitulation selloffs that typically mark the bottom of a market. we are about to head into the flow of second-quarter earnings report. companies may make the opportunity to kitchen sink some of the numbers. that may be the next spate of bad news that sends the markets lower. jonathan: can you envision this without a fed pivot? can you get that inflection point in the market without a fed pivot?

scott: what may play out this time around -- the fed meet in a couple of weeks time. i think they are likely to raise rates by 75 basis points. then there is a long stretch before the next fed meeting in september. two additional inflation data reports, two labor market reports, jackson hole in between that. so there is breathing space for the fed to ascertain what monetary policy has done so far, is inflation coming down, is most of our work done? if the market and that fed concludes most of their work is done, i think you could see a pivot in the market without any real fed pivot, just a change in market expectations. kailey: the fed has to consider what is happening in the broader economy, on the employment side. you had a note where you said it is hard to call this a recession if we are adding jobs, corporate

profits are rising. jim bianco said you can have job prints like this and still be in recession. he things we are there. why do you disagree? scott: like some in other parts of this economy, we are still living in the ripple effects from the pandemic. we could easily get another negative gdp print for the second quarter of the year. slightly negative in the first. two consecutive quarters, and there is your recession. however, given the importance of the consumer in the economy, added 2.7 million jobs in the first half of the year, and i know a lot of that is recovery, wages are growing, retail sales are growing. could you get enough of a slowdown to qualify as recession? yes, but honestly that becomes more of a semantic argument that an economic argument. jonathan: great to catch up,

scott clemons. i had a lot of back-and-forth yesterday about those inflection points in equity markets coinciding with the fed going dovish. hard to believe they will go max dovish anytime soon. remember the september pause? remember when that gains traction and then quickly faded? tom: my best thing about market bottoms, the way you can enjoy fighting them is by losing money. jonathan: what did jim boe say this morning? inflation has peaked is the new inflation is transitory. some pushback from him. tom: 9.4% in the united kingdom is a wild statistic. i think the u.k. is leading on this, the difference in wage gains between private employees versus public employees. that is a tinderbox getting

ready to explode in america. jonathan: potentially see more strikes. seeing more of that in europe. it is hard to imagine things get easier in europe, particularly anytime soon. tom: i have trouble with people who say the striking this time around is different from the 1970's. if we could inflation that persists like a 1970's, all bets are off on that idea. jonathan: you would know, given union ship is much lower now than back then. i don't think that just talked about enough. if we had union membership as high as it was back then, could you imagine the pass-through to wage growth? tom: a lot of work on that, and germany may be the last vestige of it. certainly some of it within

public offices within the united states. what i would look at is the economic growth, the guidance of her earnings. it starts with tesla today. the non-tech, the ones that we don't really talk about, are more visible. jonathan: microsoft on tuesday. fed decision. tom: last night, the red sox were not losing -- jonathan: they were not playing. tom: they were not losing. i was reading a first-quarter report from a famous toothpaste company. price increase, innovation, resizing. putting four tomatoes in the box

that used to have five or six? jonathan: who is this guy stanton? is he good? tom: you are a yankees fan? one of my interns is a yankees fan. how did that happen? jonathan: aaron judge is massive. he is a giant. seeing their guys in real life. tom: he would look good in a red sox uniform. jonathan: futures unchanged on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. rishi sunak may end up on top today when conservative members of parliament decide which two candidates will battle to replace oris johnson. he finished first in tuesday's ballot.

liz truss is now the favorite to join him in the final ballot. in italy, prime minister mario draghi has told the senate's coalition can be rebuilt, using concerns that he will quit government and throat the government into chaos. markets rallied after his comments. last week, he said he wanted to resign because he didn't have the backing of all parties in his coalition. they say there is a 50% chance of a slump. economists say they now expect a world economy to grow 2.9% this year, 2.6% in 2023, slightly lower than previous. apple shipments probably surged in china last week after lockdowns were lifted. mobile phone shipments jumped 9.2% in june. apple and samsung on the way, while the market of domestic makers fell.

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>> we think the dollar can still arise further. dxy will move up to 1-12 by the third quarter.

we think the fed is much more likely to meet or beat implied rate expectations than the ecb. jonathan: the chief cross as its strategist at morgan stanley. 1-12 the dollar index. that currency could get a whole lot stronger. where does that leave the euro? euro-dollar, a little weaker on the euro side of things, going into a big day for the ecb. 1.0196. a big day for european gas supply and politics. i can't keep up. tom: we have been making jokes about it today, i've been guilty about it. i cannot emphasize how important tomorrow is. the most historic ecb meeting ever, wrapped up in the war,

putin's trip to iran. jonathan: we went eight years without a rate hike from draghi, we thought the guard face the same situation. what we are trying to work out is how far interest rates could go at the ecb with everything going around. tom: we turn to this climate debate in a very hot america. washington, d.c., 102 in a couple of days. greg valliere know the heat of our political discussion and climate change. he is the chief u.s. policy strategist at agf. we all know the debate. are the republicans in the middle, are the democrats in the middle on climate change? greg: frankly, i don't think they know what to do. joe biden this week will declare a climate emergency. i'm not sure what that would do.

maybe he will talk about banning exports or stopping any new drilling. but the supreme court ruling one month ago was really epic, the whole idea i read vettori policy. the court said to have big regulatory changes, you have to have collaboration with congress. even if biden mix a strong statement today, i'm not sure he gets much done. tom: who are you watching in washington where anything gets done on climate change either way, are you going to give me the gentleman from west virginia? is he the climate czar in washington? greg: to a certain extent. joe manchin's influence has been enormous. he has enraged democrats, as you know. i think his clout will persist. i don't see much improvement on environment the policy. i have to conclude the environmental movement is in

tatters. there is so much going on. one of the big stories this year is the collapse of the environmental movement. kailey: what about the democratic party? to your point about democrats being so angry at one of their own, joe manchin, who seems to have issues with the policies, the democratic party itself seems to be fractured. greg: they sure are. basically they don't have the book to get much done. you have an environment right now where voters care more about the price of gasoline, which has come down a little, then any other issue. because of that, people are willing to look the other way on environment. , even fires in london, temperatures over 100 degrees, because they want lower gasoline prices. kailey: that will color the midterm elections. when we look at 22024, is there anyone in washington who would

like to see resident biden run for reelection? greg: very few. in public, a lot of democrats say he is the nominee, we are not going to oppose him. in private, you talk to a lot of democrats who are blunt about his age. it is harsh talk about that, but i think most democrats would like to get a fresher face. tom: i looked at the truck today of the drop of the water level near the hoover dam. precipitous is the word. there is no comparison. how do republicans frame climate change in the geographies where there is a lot of republicans, and without question, there is climate change? greg: a lot of republicans do not believe there is climate change. a lot of them believe donald trump won the election. tom: the water level of hoover

dam is not a theory, it is measurable. greg: 100 degree temperatures are not a theory either. i hate to say this, but the next big crisis is california, which still has not had the summer fire season. i think fires in california in august are going to be a big issue for estate state that is running out of water, dramatically. you have to wonder, is there some cure here? the salinization is expensive, but that may come back into the mix of policy options. jonathan: always great to get your view on things. every time you look anywhere right now, it seems to be problematic. you are saying it, how much doom and gloom is out there at the moment? tom: you have to battle it every day, particularly with the pandemic, variant issues going

on. you have to find the optimism that is out there. can i do a correction? i was making jokes about bramo on her trip. it is like what you do if you are going to everest and you don't go ohio up. it is a huge hike, you do some airplanes with it. but she is going as high as 18,000 feet. i have never been that high. i have been up to 12,000 feet, and i didn't you'll good. jonathan: and you have kailey reading calculus to get ready for the show. tom: 18,000 feet. the bottom line is, i had no idea how high you go on a casual hike, if you decide to go to nepal.

jonathan: is she going to take a week afterward to recover? equities done one third of 1% on the s&p. the nasdaq down a quarter of 1%. tomorrow, the focus will be on europe, ecb rate decision, bond buying decision. the latest on italian politics. kailey: transition protection method. jonathan: we need to work at what happens with european gas. want to take us out with that doom? anti-fragmentation talk?

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jonathan: live from new york city this morning, equity future softer. done one third of 1% on the s&p. yields are lower by seven basis points. 2.9540 the 10 year. big spat over energy supply from russia to europe.

we will look at for the latest there. weaker euro. want to keep you up to speed on netflix. it was higher by 6%, now about 5%. they skipped over an extremely low bar. we were expecting a 2 million subscriber loss but we got about one million. tom: paul sweeney said, forget about the financials, what is the rotten tomatoes on this new epic they have coming out? jonathan: stranger things? that is the other one. tom: the gray man. kailey: ryan gosselin, who i believe is in that film. friday. jonathan: it is a movie? tom: it is not a series?

jonathan: i think we are revealing how much we know. tom: futures are -10 on the dow. vix, 24.0, a testament to what we have seen the last few weeks. blerina uruci is the u.s. economist at t. rowe price with a different outlook. what we have not talked about this morning is the labor market. i want to talk about all of the gloom out there amid 3.6% unemployment. you lead with that in your note. blerina: absolutely. i'm taking a lot of strength from the labor market. job creation at 350,000 for three months on average, we know that that looks at this. it is really strong.

the on employment rate is down to pre-pandemic levels. we know we had a hard and strong labor market. the labor market will matter a lot for the outlook of the u.s. consumer. from that, i think the doom and gloom on recession is a little bit exaggerated at the moment. tom: we parse inflation as services and goods. how do you parse the labor economy, is it the recovery we saw in restaurants and bars? where is that persistency of good news in labor now? blerina: what we are seeing is broadly based job creation. this is what cap job growth going for so many months. this could turn around quickly, especially if we talk ourselves into recession. but let's pay attention to what

we are hearing from companies. they are hiring over the coming few months. right now we are seeing small job cuts predominantly in tech and finance. if we see this as being more broadly based in other sectors of the economy, this is when we need to start getting worried about the outlook for the stock market. kailey: can we talk about the housing market? a series of data points .2 really dramatic cooling. diane swonk was talking about how we saw mortgage demand dropping to a 22-year low. the correction in housing, the most interest-rate sensitive sector, is leading the economy into a more significant slowdown or worse. should we be more worried about how we the housing market is cooling off? blerina: we should focus on two things in the housing market. we are seeing a deterioration

because of affordability. homes became unaffordable because of the very fast home price appreciation post-pandemic and because of higher interest rates. we know the housing market is one of the most interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy. but we should be careful to extrapolate what is happening with home sales to the broader economy. we know this is one of the most interest-rate sensitive sectors. at this point, not convinced this dramatic slowdown will spread to consumer spending, because of how healthy balance sheets are, how healthy the market is, believe to absorb inflation hits. kailey: doesn't that mean that the federal reserve's job in trying to rein in demand to get inflation down that much harder? is the u.s. consumer to resilient for them to do that? blerina: there in lies the

problem for the fed. we have a strong economy and they are trying to walk this tight rope bringing inflation down while the unemployment rate only picks up a little bit, because this will be absorbed in the job openings that are at record highs at the moment. i think we should be prepared for a fed that needs to hike more than markets are dissipating. tom: your job at t. rowe price is to talk to portfolio managers about sector bets, individual stock bets. unit dynamics, price dynamics of the revenue line. what are you telling them about what revenues will do in the next 12 months? blerina: i focus a lot on the u.s. consumer. we have spoken a fair bit about it already today. what happens with consumer spending over the months will be key for revenue. of course, we will have a

correction from the levels that we saw last year. that was unsustainably high spending for the consumer. we are shifting our view to focus more on the services sector, where we think the economy will rebalance, and toward those staples. as activities normalize, pent-up demand, goods and services get absorbed, focus on those necessities and nondiscretionary spending or the consumer. tom: the consumer is there. atlanta gdp statistics are really quite gloomy. should we trust those statistics or is the resilient consumer going to surprise all? blerina: i think with every data report we should really look under the hood and see what the details of that report are telling us. what we are seeing in the gdp numbers is that a lot of this weakness in volatility is being

driven by inventory restocking,de-stocking, two components that are volatile. in the coming months, we will discuss the signal from gdp from gdi data. there will be a lot of debate on this, but ultimately we should focus on consumer spending, how fast jobs are being created. kailey: something else we are likely to debate over the next few months is what size fed hike we will get in the next few months. perhaps a more important conversation is where we will get. blackstone says could be close to 5% when all is said and done. jim b uncle agreed with that. how high do you think we get on fed funds, at what point do we reach it, and how long do we stay there before the cuts follow? blerina: i think we probably get to 4% interest rate by the end of the year before the fed takes

an opportunity to see the effects of tightening financial conditions on the labor market and inflation. then i think risks for next year are pretty wide. if the economy continues to grow and surprises to the upside, 5% interest rate is not unthinkable. if the fit think this is necessary to bring inflation down, they will go ahead and do that. they told us they are prioritizing price stability. when i look at market pricing, i think they are being too sanguine about the fed cutting interest rates already next year. i don't think it will be as simple as that. jonathan: franklin templeton set the same thing to us recently. blerina uruci echoing some of that. citi looking for 4% year and on fed funds. tom: this is still not in the market, a set of people looking

for a term all right about percent. it is not priced in. jonathan: talking about rate cuts next year and some are saying that is premature. tom: the gdp number will be a big mystery. i like what we heard earlier, there is a gap between fed meetings where you get a lot of data. our affiliate in canada, 8.1% inflation. jonathan: downside surprise. on the month they hiked 100 basis points. timing. these are numbers we have not seen in a long time. likewise, the u.k. tom: can i note, curve inversion breaking down, breaking evermore inverted, except for one day? jonathan: the whole curve is shifting lower. the 10-year is down more.

tom: sub 2.95. we don't get economic data here. 8:40, i guess we missed that. jonathan: what are you looking for? we had mortgage applications earlier this morning. soggy. coming up, catching up with troy, talking about markets. he thinks there is more volatility to come. tom: everybody has an opinion. jonathan: we are going to talk about his opinion. tom: he is like el-erian, will not get up early. did you survive the show yesterday? kailey: quite successful. jonathan: great work, as always. have you booked the united

flight from newark to frankfurt? tom: i left my passport at home. my dog will bring it. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, i'm ritika gupta. president biden will announce executive action today to confront climate change. one would steer dollars to communities ravaged by heat. for now the president is holding off an emergency decree that would allow him to use sweeping powers against global warming. the house passed a bill that would recognize same-sex marriage under federal law. it would also extend legal protection to all married couples, a reaction to concern that the supreme court may reconsider a ruling extending those rights. the legislation faces long it's in the senate.

in china, they are talking about flexibility. the most important thing was to keep employment and prices stable. he also said they would make covert control measures more targeted. tesla earnings after the bell today. rising sales and profit are under pressure as they face supply chain difficulties and lockdowns in china that hurt its ability to make cars. jp morgan plans to move 1000 from its staff from either paris or frankfurt. the paris office has expanded significantly. the ecb have been pushing u.s. banks to increase their eu-based capabilities. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in

more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

valuations are at a much more reasonable place than they were 12 month ago. we are close to bottom, the market is in the process of bottom, but all the conditions that led to the volatility, unfortunately, they have not gone away yet. tom: the portfolio manager at black rock synthesizes where we are in the market with his opinion, the blackrock opinion. i called it a snooze fest but it's actually been very interesting, the political statement out of the day from brussels, ursula von der leyen talking about the nord stream issue. it moves the markets.

green on the screen has become red. curve inversion. -23 basis point is out there this morning. the two year yield, higher than the 10-year yield. i think i'm getting that right. kailey: sounds about right. tom: right now we will go to studying the advanced timeline with kriti gupta. kriti: yesterday's rally was so significant because it was the broadest going back to 2020. traditionally when you see that kind of broader rally, it is good news and that there is not a defensive tilt or cyclical tilt. the entire market is rallying and you have some high-volume. perhaps conviction by on the surface. essentially how many s&p stocks are positive minus how many at the end of the day are negative. going back to 2021, you see this

rally, but in 2022 see that decline line stalled out. we need to see more of that breadth to have a sustainable rebound. i will also point out the other side of the argument, chris murphy said we had a broader rally, 98% of stocks were positive. that being said, that has historically led to some sort of correction. really a two way situation here. tom: thank you for that. viral on twitter, kailey leinz studying calculus. we now go to tartar and toothpaste. we can do that with the gina martin adams. i want to talk about the calculus of boring toothpaste companies and the reality they face like others, which is margin compression. how do companies deal with inflation and the margin

compression it brings on the income statement gina: i'm happy to bring the boredom to the show. nonetheless. at this stage in the cycle, you hear about cost cutting. you start to hear about cost rationalization. we have already heard it for several weeks running from the tech space, started to hear more from financials even talking about potentially cutting back on labor cost input. increasingly, that is the way that companies create stability in their margin lines. that said, the primary source of instability for margins has really been inflation and commodity costs. they are going to get some support from that no matter what they do because we have seen energy costs turn over. we have seen the metal prices turnover. there has been some reprieve and commodity costs. tom: it is like game of thrones in season five.

gina martin adams has 3000 people out on the floor, the smoke and the chemicals that make bloomberg intelligence. the marketing phrase that i hear is they are going to innovate themselves forward. baloney. they never do that. gina: not at this stage of the cycle, it's about cutting cost to sustain margins. then when the economic climate improves, they start to spend. there are exceptions to the rule. there are groups in the health care and technology space that spent an enormous amount on r&d, constantly evaluating projects with a reasonable return on investment, no matter what stage of the cycle. bradley went talking about the s&p 500, when operating markets are coming under some degree of pressure, they have to pull those levers to stabilize those margins. i think we have gotten to that point. i've been talking about margin weakness for a year now as analysts have started to pick

away at their margin estimates. we are starting to see half of the s&p 500 with declines in year-over-year margin showing up in the real data. at that point in time, you would expect companies to rationalize cost. kailey: you were talking about how they would get relieved when it comes to commodity prices coming down. we are seeing not just the dollar coming down, hovering around its strongest level going back to the early 2000's. how real are these fx headwinds? we see company after company saying it was fx. gina: they are real but there is not a ton a company can do about those headwinds. about 35% of the s&p 500 constituents, a stronger dollar is a bad thing. a stronger dollar will translate into lower earnings because they have substantial multinational businesses. most of that dollar strength is coming via euro weakness, so it

is profound for companies that have exposure to europe. that said, the underappreciated story, those companies importing costs are getting a benefit because the dollar is so strong. nobody will say, things got better because the dollar got strong. nonetheless, you have several consumer companies, consumer staples, discretionary's, some industrial companies that are heavy importers from overseas, to the extent they import and the dollar is rising, there import cost pressure is mitigated. that could be a hidden support to market that nobody is talking about that we may see her merge. tom: thank you so much. 30 years, 14.6%. the last decade, 14.2% per year's. this is not at all, not some

fancy bitcoin, whatever. boring toothpaste. kailey: nothing more exciting than oral hygiene. tom: what did we learn today? kailey: i think we learned how difficult tomorrow will be. the ecb is stuck between a rock and a hard place. you have the question with what will happen with nord stream one tomorrow. if gas starts flowing, how much? that you have the question of italian politics, what will that do to the bund spread? all of this christine lagarde has to take into account as she tries to hike rates to taming patient. not a spot that i want to be in. tom: dxy, not out that 1.08 level. dxy index heavily influenced by the euro, back to 1.07. euaro, 1.0206.

in the equity markets, intermediate up in a bear market , i will let you decide as you watch and listen to bloomberg. green the screen, and then down we went off prudent and ukraine worries, but we have come back a little bit. the vix is flatish, 24.54. tomorrow, our coverage of the meetings of european central bank and the press conference of their president lagarde. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathon: coming off the back of addictive gains. we are just a little bit lighter, softer, lower. the countdown to the open starts right now. announcer: everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is bloomberg "the open" with jonathan ferro. jonathon: live from new york city's, we again from -- we begin with a big issue. >>