>> the fed hiking interest rates into a known slow down from the markets. this is something they don't normally do. >> we have heard from a lot of companies that they are thinking the following environment is going to be more challenging. >> higher inflation raises the prospect of a pretty significant slowdown. >> we are seeing signs i global economic growth is decelerating at a pre-rapid clip. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. john: from our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning.

this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. futures up half of 1%. the week ahead. tom: we are getting ready for a show, a terrific lineup to give you perspective. we've got to get there first. it is the recession debate over the weekend, a really rich weekend of research. he has been so good on staying in the markets because recession is not inevitable. >> september 21 is the meeting. it is the final 75 basis point hike. tom: long ago and far away is an election coming. we've got to get lisa reacquainted with the terminal. november 2, after september 21, more important. john: it has been a while, hasn't it? hiking unknown everest.

we wanted to keep it real interesting. lisa: is good to be back and it sounds like as always, it was -- tom: did you get a headache coming back? lisa: i thought you were going to ask if i got a headache coming back on the show. wonder how much that has to do with the dollar weakness that has been the ongoing theme in the wake of the ecb and how much that affects a lot of the risk assets when i was around. jonathan: futures up half of 1% on the s&p. it also looks like this, up five basis points. we need to talk about the data. pretty terrible on both sides of the atlantic. this morning, german business confidence, the euro showing just a little bit of strength this morning. >> to me, that with the big story, probably hiking or

wherever i was. to me, that is tracking it seems like that is the big shift. the strength suddenly after so much weakness. today not a huge day, but a monumentally for the united states. this week, all the u.s. got safe tech earnings throughout the week. tuesday, we've got microsoft and alphabet. wednesday, we get mentor, facebook, as well as the software and the hardware. later on in the week we get apple and amazon on thursday. on wednesday, the rate decision, the key issue people are talking about. as you pointed out, it is not the 75 basis point rate hike, it what happened in september and the dual mandate of both getting that inflation in dealing with the unemployment rates that have to rise if they want to get that inflation rate done. that seems to be the tension that a lot of people are looking for. a slew of economic data including on thursday.

this is what i'm really interested in. the second gdp figure doesn't come in negative. are we already in a technical recession? we did have a negative gdp placed in the first quarter. how much does that shake the view, especially as it comes a day after the federal reserve? you will remember how in the last couple of meetings, it has been a key indicator for this federal reserve. are we starting to see the cost of employment go down, or is it continuing? jonathan: we might get that wall street journal meeting again today's ahead of the meeting. nothing at all to see their. lisa, thank you. tom, looking ahead to gdp on friday. all looking for that second quarter of negative growth. tom: a second quarter of negative growth i think is a pretty high dispersion. again, it gets recalibrated along the way. i take the point that the economic just immense -- are

going to fold right into what the stock market calls will be. jonathan: we have a new guesstimate, 4200 down from 47. lori, great to catch up with you. let's start right there. >> targets are always challenging in years like this. the market growth between now and your end. we think trends hit bottom in mid june. really, we wanted to send a signal that we thought there was some -- between now and year-end, that we do think we need to be leaning into recession rebound, which we think are over-bought an over-sold. i will tell you, my original 4700 target is probably still the right bet but when we look

at the stocks vs. bonds, that really does temporary enthusiasm. tom: aggressively taking risks in credit. we have a 67% coupon, get your foot in the water, let's go. you are saying the same thing on recession. what is a recession rebound sector or part of a sector looking like? lori: some of the areas that typically do well i things like financials and technology stocks, areas that typically under-performing the drawdown and over-perform on the rebound. we think the financials are key at this point in time. even if we do have a mild technical recession, banks will execute very well through it. tom: then how will you use the gdp statistics? i get it is a first look, but if the banks are doing well, that means we underestimate the resiliency of the consumer. do you buy that line?

lori: i think that the banks are telling you if you look through some of the reports we've seen so far is that consumer is at a very good starting point for whatever this economic form ends up being called. i think that is one of the lesson that equity investors have learned over the last four or five years, that every time we enter one of these rates in the equity market, whether it is the trade war, the pandemic itself, that the consumer is pretty resilient. jonathan: and i playing the inflation story still, or pivoting to slower growth? which one is it? lori: a little bit of both. we get asked a lot about stagflation and what we have told people is that we do adjusted lesion rates to moderate if they stay high relative to this rate. i am a little bit concerned that we might not be out of the energy in short-term, but longer

term, i think you want to play there. i think technology is a great way to play that slowing growth, and we do see the market starting to shift away from these overvalued -- back toward more reasonably-valued areas. one of the things we learned the last few years is that these big software companies in particular are the tools that companies use to fight just about whatever battle gets thrown their way. they are going to get perhaps a better path from the fed, but things aren't going to be all roses and sunshine. how do small caps fit into this considering that you are now going overweight small caps heading into it most people say is a u.s. recession? lori: i think you have to really evaluate what you think are the different parts of the market at this point in time. we know that they always have a very hard pivot, they tend to really underwrite and perform

heart heading in and on the way down initially, but they tend to really experience that pivot in the late parts of recession on the way out. what we see in particular when we look at small-cap performance against economic indicators like jobless claims and ism manufacturing is that small caps are already trading as though we had a spike in as the manufacturing has plunged. i don't really need to have that " are we having a recession" debate, they are already pricing it. lisa: do you think that this means that small caps are ahead of the market, or is this indicating we are already any recession that is going to get confirmed on thursday? lori: i think it is going to be interesting if you do get a negative gdp for the quarter whether or not people view that as a recession. but i do think that small caps are very economically sensitive because they do have primarily most of their revenue coming out of the u.s. if there is a technical

recession in place, small caps would really make sense for the carnage we've seen in that space since march of last year. jonathan: great to catch up with you, and thank you for issuing the downgrade before the appearances, unlike some guests who do it after the interview. tom, i never understand. lisa: what are you talking about? tom: they don't want to get to the media, they want to go to a process where it is approved, move up the food chain, and then it gets the clients first. jonathan: last week the e.u. came out with this proposal to cut gaseous for the rest of this year, and we talked about potential dissuading of the south and the north.

lisa: we have this idea that the european gdp could get cut pretty dramatically if russia cuts prices, especially physical winter. already you are seeing a country pushed back saying "come on, guys, really? do we really have to do this?" it raises questions about longer-term, how they can really build supplies. jonathan: the data is already terrible, let's put it that way. tom, the tensions are pretty clear between a hawkish central bank in some weak economics in america, two. tom: i read a lot about the war over the weekend, a massive case of the war being removed from london, removed from new york. jonathan: lisa, welcome back. lisa: thank you. tom: jon, i think the gloom

clicked in around 6:01. there it was. jonathan: when the show started. lisa: at least smiling. tom: it was smiling gloom. jonathan: the forecast on the s&p from new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, this is first word news. the european central bank may not be -- in rates after last week's height. the governing council member has told bloomberg at the rate increase in september also needs to be significant, already more than four times the target. treasury secretary janet yellen says she doesn't see any sign that the u.s. economy is in a broad recession. she has told nbc that the u.s.

is likely to see some slowing of job creations but says that isn't a recession. here in the u.k., the next prime minister -- economic growth. the foreign secretary is leading the call where she has pledged to crack down china's influence in the u.k. because of the biggest long-term threat to britain. the director general of the organization has declared the monkeypox infection a public health emergency of international concern. the virus has spread to about 16,000 people in more than 17 countries in just a few months. they are concerned about the covid outbreak's and the lack of urgency and coordinated testing and treatment. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

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>> i would say that we are seeing a slowdown. a recession in the economy, i

think there is a play to keep the labor market strong and inflation down. jonathan: that was janet yellen on nbc over the weekend, from new york city this morning. good morning, it is a price action on the s&p. the yields higher, by five basis points. crude up 1%. the euro showing a little bit of strength as we get a couple of policymakers talking up the euro-dollar. of 2/10 of 1%. if we get that negative gloom on friday the second quarter, the second consecutive quarter in america, expect a ton of pushback that sounded a lot like secretary yellen over the weekend. can you call it a recession when we just turn that 72,000 payroll?

tom: a reason to stay with us on tv and radio, kate -- jp morgan really parses it out. if you have domestic final sales, they seem to be a little soft, but they are looking for a surprising export growth. they parse out to 0.7% positive statistic. it was an odd weekend. for those of you worldwide, maybe you are cool and collected, we are not. within that was a jewel of an essay by stephen eisenberg. most importantly, stephen eisenberg is 81. it was the most emotional essay

by someone of that vintage of trump, of five in, and he just said giving up, announced one term now and then you can act with a new independence. is that in the zeitgeist? lisa: he seems alone at the moment because many democrats do not want the president to be the leadership of 2024. about 64% of democrats say they want a new candidate for 2024. telling the president to quit, this actually gives more freedom to come out, but also instead of whispers, people able to actually come out and prepare a bench. >> you are loving it. the guy mowing the lawn behind you is very aware of the polling as well. mr. eisenberg talks about the

president. if the president came out and said right now, what is the urgent question you must deal with? lisa: the fact that he has come out with a lot of conviction, just dealing with the issues at hand. the issue which many advise i'm sure would be telling the president is you and that automatically become a lame-duck president. if you are not running in 2024, you become a lame-duck president. potentially what could happen is that it could help other democrats and midterm elections, the case than potentially, they are not voting on whether or not they like what is happening right now with the economy on referendum, and actual individuals sitting in the white house, they giggle potentially on those people running for legislature, whether or not it is for congress, percent, or for actual policy. >> how vulnerable is president biden after pinning a lot of his

campaign on gas prices? down to $4.36 per gallon, how much do we look at something that is incredibly volatile and could shift ahead of the midterms? >> this is obviously a huge goal of the administration. they want prices down, especially during these crucial summer months when a lot of people are taking for the roads a huge milestone, you can see the president tweeting constant weight after going lower on gasoline. whether or not it has changed the psyche of the voters before november remains to be seen, but it is something that obviously they wanted to quell, because they just do not want people complaining about gasoline prices. but also, gasoline prices relative to everything else. this is a broader inflation story that they are trying to combat.

jonathan: surely it works the other way. lisa: i get your point, and this is going to be something that is increasingly perilous behind some of the claim that this white house has had. i know you will be one jonathan: jonathan: of these people. that is all the prices. lisa: did you know that friday, we get chevron and exxon earnings? we get a chance. jonathan: i think the point about the gdp on thursday, dci is on friday. if we get that negative print, if we get a hint from secretary yellen about how they might handle that. lisa: her interview over the weekend was certainly looking ahead and foreshadowing what they are expecting on thursday. this is likely going to be a technical recession, but they are trying to get ahead of that

and yes, maybe technically the u.s. is in recession, but that does not mean that there is this massive amount of slowing growth, especially when you comparatively look at other countries, namely in europe. jonathan: thank you, we will catch up with you in about an hour. the pmi services number last week was dreadful. i mean, it was terrible. if you take out the pandemic months of the weekend, it was the weakest in record going back to two thousand nine, that is how bad it was. tom: i will take that. 12 or 13 years. but to look at the equation of gdp, there is a part of america that even if you have a technical recession or whatever you want to call it, they are going to be fine. there is a huge part of america to president has to address, and i would suggest flat on their

back now. for the kind of talk about is one single item of inflation, and that is a win, and particularly that their home sales should be lowered to new rentals. >> a lot of people have been looking at that, how much are they looking at a technical recession to keep unemployment low, how much are we looking at something more projected? jonathan: features of half of 1% on the s&p. the nasdaq, half of 1% also. good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. ♪

jonathan: i've always said the conversations in the commercial breaks with the guests so much better than when they come live on air. tom: i want to do that. jonathan: why is that? tom: i want to do it like sports where we show the messaging. thank you to our great advertisers download. they watch me stirring tang and the rest of it. jonathan: futures this morning up 0.1 percent on the s&p 500. best week of gains going back a

month. we caught up with lori calvasina of rbc, who goes from 4700 down to 4200 get -- down to 4200 get i want to talk about the tension between hawkish central banks and weaker economic data and took about a two-year in america. thursday that two-year came in 25 basis points, and that pmi on friday was pretty bad. we bounce back just to basis points to 2.9 9% on the two-year in america -- basis points to 2.9% on the two-year in america. the output numbers keep coming in. euro doing ok with hawkish central bank speak may supporting things for now, but the data come of the pmi's last week, this morning the evo index , which is basically german business confidence, sinking.

tom: our american audience really doesn't care, but german yields with a vengeance have come in. i look at the swiss 20 year, which came in with strong swiss franc, so it is a movable feast in europe, and i would suggest more movable right now, more dynamic than what we see in america. jonathan: for the multinationals we've got to care, earnings and fx. tom: fx is tangible. no question about that. let us get a handle on where we are going to the fed meeting, and then involves actually doing economics. at columbia university he took microeconomics, kind of sort of. bruce chasm and joins us from jake -- risk chasm and -- bruce kazman joins us from jp morgan. what sort of recession is this? bruce: as you know there's a good chance second quarter gdp will print negative for a second quarter in a row in q2. as you kind of break down the

data with job growth so strong, with what we continue to expect a be a positive consumer spending number in this week's report, it doesn't feel like a normal break into what we would call a recession. we should recognize that about the first half, but at the same time, we should recognize the momentum loss that we had midyear. we are going to probably print a negative consumption number in a row. the flash pmi's were ugly. we are not seeing that in the u.s. we are seeing it elsewhere. what looks like a technical event as we move through the first half of the year could easily turn into a real recession event has we go through the next couple of months. tom: in your spreadsheet you've got a one-off on exports this quarter. is it export growth to the rescue? bruce: there is some support there, particularly as we see china and asia lifting after what was a big second-quarter

set of lock downs. but with the dollar rising and with europe very much in the crosshairs of a recession right now, i would not be counting on exports saving us here. i think the saving grace has to be the business sector bending, not breaking, in the face of the drags we are seeing. also, inflation coming off in the summer with gasoline prices starting to move lower. jonathan: i'm looking at certain data points. claims are higher the last few weeks. the pmi last week was really bad. we are starting to see this show up in housing. i am trying to work out which part of this is desirable and which part of it is undesirable. bruce: i don't think the movement towards softer growth is undesirable on the part of the fed. that is what they want. they want to slow the economy. they want to take out the demand component of inflation and they are hoping that that, with the moderation of some of the drags, gets you back to something more acceptable. however, and i think this is

really what is behind your question, the momentum lost come of the idea that layoffs are starting to rise, that is starting to push together a dynamic which traditionally has been recession. recessions in the u.s. context is a move up in unemployment rates of 2% or more. that is the risk, that we are letting something take hold which is going to give us a much sharper move than anything like what you might characterize the first half of the year as looking like. lisa: embedded in jon's question is the fight, morgan stanley disagreeing with your own jp morgan on when the fed is going to reverse course and then start cutting rates after raising rates. at what point is the softening we are seeing in data now reflective of a fed that will be able to backtrack as soon as next year? bruce: i actually think it is far sooner than the year. we are looking for 75 basis points this week. we are looking for more

open-ended guidance. i don't the bear going to commit to the size of move at a september meeting. i think we probably still do get a 50 at the september meeting, but beyond that, if we are seeing the economy really soften , job growth slowed towards zero, i don't think the fed is going to continue to be tightening here. we've got them pausing at about 3.50%. we don't have them easing at this point because we don't have a real recession call and our forecast. but i think it is about the economy. if the economy starts to slow, given that the fed gets rates to a modestly neutral stance, the equation changes at the fed. it is not there today with the 1.75% level of rates and an economy still generating over 400,000 jobs a month, but it will be there in three or four months if we are right. lisa: what is enough to cause the fed to take a step back? is it an unemployment rate at 4.5 percent, inflation coming down to 5% from 9.1%? how far do we have to see progress when it comes to the

deterioration in momentum before perhaps taking a break? bruce: i think the short answer to that is a fish needs to have policy stance, a trajectory on inflation, and dynamics on growth give them comfort that in the year -- in a year, inflation is going to be below 3%. the job growth we are seeing right now is not there. if payroll growth is down to 100000 and the run rate on inflation with energy prices off is moving more into the 0.3% per monthly base, we think you could easily be in that zone. tom: your update on emerging markets, please. the currencies give way. i am told conversation after conversation this time is different. my radar is up. bruce: i think it creates more

risk here, especially since we will not see the relief on central bank alice e. i think where this time is different is in the laundry -- in the larger em economies. there are certainly low income problems, but in the larger em economies, you just don't have the debt overhangs. you don't have the current account imbalances. you have policy makers that have been willing to continue to use fiscal policy. so growth is slowing. em is certainly a threat if the u.s. and europe went to recession. we don't think there is a systemic magnifying effect through credit, which is often the case when you see some of these dynamics take in em. jonathan: where is the leverage right now? whenever we talk about this recession story, you acknowledge the risks in america, yet we keep hearing the same thing that consumer balance sheets are strong. where do you think the leverage is going to show up? bruce: that is the interesting question. are we going to see the dynamic

on growth which still has a healthy private sector sort of cushion here? is that going to get magnified by credit? it certainly isn't happening yet, but there are signs of stress building. i think there's always the underlying point when you are raising interest rates and slowing growth, you can be surprised at where something shows up that does not seem to be a big story. i would worry about european banks in an environment in which we are seeing more sharp slowdowns in growth and we are just getting the ecb going. i worry that some of the smaller em economies show more tendency to spill over in ways we are not expecting from a geopolitical point of view and from a credit market point of view. i will tell you for sure, i am always surprised where these things show up, and i think we should not lose sight of the context that this is an environment where this is a likely outcome. jonathan: awesome to get your

views on a range of things. that was just as good as the commercial break. just as good of the conversation in the commercial break. the fed meeting this week is not about the fed meeting this week. it is about the next one. september 21. before we get to september 21, you've got an august 10 cpi print, a september 13 cpi print, and i think to bruce's point, maybe the labor market is going to take on increased importance over the next three to performance. will this fed be confronted by slower drops growth, maybe even negative jobs growth by the end of this year as they try to tackle inflation? tom: you outlined what we are all doing now. we have joined jerome powell in being massively data dependent. we just have to wait to see with the data is. we can guess on it. jp morgan saw the headlines friday that recessions are always disinflationary. ok, so we've got to slow down. but our we diss inflating down to 7%, 5%, 3%?

jonathan: lisa, some people might be screaming at the tv right now saying no, chairman powell joined us to be data-dependent because he ignored the data for the whole of last year. lisa: i imagine they might be screaming for a whole range of reasons. that is been a constant theme. if you are data dependent, what data are you looking at? that is why i am curious about the employment cost index. how much does that feature into the belief that is hardened into the markets of a fed pause as soon as next year, even though a lot of people think there's only a 40% chance of recession? jonathan: because he told us that was was possible for the fed pivot at the end of last year. lisa: and the university of michigan survey was response for the increase we saw just a few month ago. so which data? jonathan: just cherry picking. pick whichever one you want. i get the data-dependent thing, but as i said a million times last week, if you don't understand the reaction function , then what is to see here? which data point matters? tom: don't think there is a

reaction function coming out, and with a huge fiscal impulse we've had, this is all original. jonathan: futures up 0.4% on the s&p. from new york, this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date with the news from around the world, with the first word news, i'm leigh-ann gerrans. he fed will probably have to inflict much more pain on the economy to get his leash and under control after raising rates in june by the most since 1994. policymakers are expected this week to approve another 75 basis point hike, and they are likely to signal their intention to keep moving higher in the months ahead. the u.s. says a russian cruise missile strike on the port of odessa has passed out of moscow's commitment to exports. the deal for safe shipment corridors was signed after

months of talks. russia says the missile attack targeting ukrainian military infrastructure. now hong kong reportedly plans to reduce hotel or for arrivals. according to local media, a health code system will be introduced. one proposal calls for five days of hotel or in. after that, arriving travelers would be issued with a so-called yellow health code for two days that would prohibit them from entering high-risk areas. the swiss bank julius baer has reported net income fell 26% in the first half of the year, while market swings eroded assets that the firm overseas for the rich. the ceo flipper can bunker has told bloomberg tv he thinks the worst is now over. apple has announced a rare sales promotion in china, offering four days of discounts on its top-tier iphones and related accessories. apple is usually hesitant to alter prices, but it will cut $89 half the price of the iphone 13 series.

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pres. biden: i am working to make sure that when the price of oil comes down, the price at the pump comes down as well. it comes down in real time. the good news is that is happening. it is not happen fast enough. jonathan: gasoline prices coming down every single day since june. that is the president of the united states. we wish him well as he recovers from covid. hoosiers positive 0.5% this moaning. here's the price for you on the nasdaq, up 0.5%. yields up by five basis points. the data out of europe not great again, but the central bank speak remains hawkish. euro-dollar, 1.0222.

tom: what do you think? i've got an equity market lift. it is a bull market. jonathan: 28% of the s&p reports this week. this week for earnings, huge. tom: absolutely agree with that. we will have all of that, including the bi tech companies. este big tech companies. -- the big tech companies. i would to just we come down to partly july. 90 in washington, maybe 100 down south where it is supposed to be 100 degrees. how did we do in this heatwave? how did washington do, our grades do, our climate policy do, given a real heatwave? >> the hot summer here in d.c. is when lawmakers try to get away.

the whole point of august recess is to get out of here when it is hottest, but they did not succeed in getting out in time, so they have to talk about climate. the climate policy did not stand up to the heat. it is safe to say that it did not go where manchin was expected to go, so now we are back in the manchinolofy game. lisa: perhaps where climate policy did not go, the price factor did in terms of what people were doing when it comes to driving in the price response to the pump. why have we seen gasoline prices go down? is it purely because of the spr release, or because people are driving less, consuming less in the face of higher prices? >> the spr is a real effect. you can't release 100 some million barrels and not have a price effect. on the gasoline response you also have refined product inventories. where were we a month ago?

mid june, we were 7% below demand i give ago. we are now 5% above a year ago. what changed? the answer is demand. also, refineries running flat out. you see both a price response and 98% capacity utilization. lisa: how much do you see this as being a continual decline in gas prices versus a pop in terms of the knee-jerk response to five dollars a gallon gasoline in the united states? >> the refining challenge has not entirely gone away. if demand lightens then you get some balances in those inventories, but watch out for storms. watch out for unexpected downtime. in terms of the crude story, a lot of it has to do with the question of whether or not a price cap truly comes into place, and if not, whether the european sanctions that could

drive prices up later in the year come to pass. jonathan: do you have a base case for later this year in europe? >> last week the sentience package pushed back a transaction ban on third country transactions for crude. that could be a preview of where europe actually goes. right now the deputy secretary of treasury is in europe to pitch the price cap. it does not look as though the price cap necessarily is getting a lot of uptake in the world, but the other option is to say let's push back and wait. tom: if i look at climate change and the heatwave, what is going to come is more large heat, large cold, the greater dynamics that we have. is our grid ready for it? kevin: our grid is probably not the biggest concern in the world right now. putting is trying to win -- put in -- putin is trying to win on

the grid in europe. it has been very close. cryptocurrency shutting down in texas to make the margin for things to work. gas prices rebounding on the heat. we can see where the pressure is coming, and is showing up in the cpi share the goes to utilities and to electricity and gas especially. you are certain to seek a significant amount of america's pocketbook going to the wall into the burner. jonathan: kevin book of clearview energy partners. at the heart of that conversation, a demand response this driving season. remember the report from j.p. morgan that we were looking for potentially six dollars gasoline? we got the response may be a little earlier than they anticipated. lisa: if you start to see four dollars a gallon, what is the price point at which people start to protest versus feel more confident to go out again? how much further down can prices go if we don't get that refinery response? jonathan: the politics of energy

in europe later this year is going to be critical, both europe's relationship with the rest of the world and the relationships within europe. i think the latter is where my attention is right now, whether they can form some sort of consensus about what they need to do through the rest of this year. tom: i know they are way ahead of us in terms of conservation, but i just think it is a different story here, it for and story there. i would suggest the shock here is going to be complete he wrapped around a changing of seasons and the fear of that cold. that is going to happen sooner than later. it is not going to be october. this is going to be literally in weeks. jonathan: i still don't understand how you can have some kind of cap onrushing crude. wired day -- why are they talking to the europeans? lisa: how about talk to russia? russia came out over the weekend and said you really think we are just going to say sure, we will

take gas at 50% lower prices? not a chance. we will not do business with you if you try to impose price caps. so where will they get the leverage to do it? it is china, it is india, and that is a pretty tenuous bet. jonathan: it is a story i can't get my head around, but i am open to explanations. futures up 0.5% on the s&p. on the nasdaq 100, we are positive by 0.5%. when was the last time you heard a story about cuts to the price of the iphone? maybe the cheaper version, sure, but the premium iphone, cuts of up to $89 and china? tom: i saw that. it is in china which is a different market for them and such. what i would say, and this is like dan ives territory and others, it is a complete mystery to me how that conference call is going to go. it could swing either way. the uncertainty around big tech

right now is ginormous. jonathan: you don't usually see those sales on top-tier iphones. it is interesting. lisa: the big question i want to hear answered, how much is this a china specific issue having to do with the lockdowns and how much is this a broader slowdown in demand for the premium product of apple? jonathan: four days of discounts on top-tier iphones and apple. a ton of research going into the numbers. foreign-exchange, and the strength of the consumer, that is going to be interesting. throw in china, and that is an important earnings release later this week. futures positive on the s&p. from new york, this is "bloomberg surveillance." ♪

>> the fed has to do his job to get inflation down. >> the fed's hiking interest rates into a known slowdown in the market. this is something that they don't normally do. >> we have heard from a lot of companies that they are thinking the following environment is going to be more challenging. >> higher inflation and policy tightening raises the prospect of a pretty significant slowdown. >> we are seeing signs that global, growth is decelerating at a pretty rapid clip here. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: