>> good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. i'm tom mackenzie. adding fuel to the fire. russia's gazprom plans to reduce gas flows to germany as european energy ministers gather to discuss contingency plans. alibaba will open its doors to mainland chinese investors by seeking a primary listing in hong kong. alibaba and soft bancshares surge. ubs second-quarter profit misses amid outflows of $12 billion. we will speak to the ceo this morning. we will recap with you those numbers. ubs, and disappointment to the swiss lender and a preview, a

gauge of what to expect from the earnings from the european banking space. second-quarter net income coming in for ubs at -- estimates were $2.44 billion. the outflows primarily within equities. the investment banking part of the business also amiss. wealth as well, another miss. a dire set of results for ubs, linked to those concerns from their clientele about the volatility and recession fears. the bank says buybacks will continue in 2022. private clients are on the sidelines. we will have the interview with ubs' ceo. manus cranny will bring the interview to us at 7:00 a.m. local time. let's check in on the data as we weigh the news around alibaba as

well. that is around the listing in hong kong opening the tech giant to investor flows from the mainland. towards the end of trading yesterday in the european session you had the news russia would be further restricting gas flows into the european union. the implications for germany came in weaker once again. the concern that germany is on the brink of a recession with bass flows expected to be further reduced. futures in terms of european stocks arrange, moderate gains at the close yesterday and a mixed picture in the u.s. as we lead up to the fed decision on wednesday. you have inflation data out of the u.s. friday. we expect inflation data out of the euro zone as well. a day when you have big tech earnings for microsoft and apple bed and focus, down 0.3%, and

bitcoin as a gauge of risk sentiment, falling 4.7% in the session, currently at $21,118. a couple stories, walmart, this is a shocker, they cut their guidance once again a couple weeks before the earnings inventory. they need to cut prices to get consumers to destocked across the retailer. stateside, a loss post market of close to 10%. meta will start to do an income sharing part of the business on the platform when it comes to audio and music as they try to take on tiktok. coinbase, this is facing regulatory scrutiny around digital assets and customers stateside as the fcc hones in their sites around that service. reports around the world, our

correspondent joins us from brussels. shanghai and alibaba, and the big news from asia. once again, russia reducing the flow of gas to germany, reminding europe of the daunting challenge the continent faces to bill -- build up energy stockpiles. how significant is the announcement we got yesterday from gazprom? what does it tell us about putin's thinking? >> it is very important to understand europe was relying on russia for 40 percent of its gas supplies. what it has seen this year is continuous reduction of this share. 12 countries have experienced this or that affect.

that has set off emergency measures including germany, the biggest economy in the european union. this is happening at a time when european countries are rushing to fill up gas storages. by november, the target is 80%. the fear is that if it comes to a complete halt, it could be between 65-71% in november. that is very different from the target of 80%. it is important in reaction to this. we saw gas prices go up 10% yesterday. tom: the news of course, gazprom reducing supplies to the european union.

oneweb and e.u. tell set combining in a deal. we got signs of this a couple days ago and we have confirmation the satellite companies will be merging in a 3.4 billion dollar allshare deal. eutelsat 0.9 three euros, a little under one euro per share dividend. shareholders will each hold 50% of eutelsat. this is a company that has been supported by the likes of macron, the french and u.k. governments have stakes in these companies to build out a competitor like starling. -- like starlink. they want an alternative to the demand and exposure to china and the u.s.

so it is around the satellite space, hoping that you build out the european version of star link and this is a step in that direction. $3.4 billion deal between oneweb and eutelsat. the story around alibaba seeking a primary listing in hong kong, paving the way of chinese investors to buy shares of the company for the first time. are we going to see more chinese tech companies seek primary listings in hong kong? >> i think this is a trend we will see going forward given the risks in new york right now. alibaba being the first, they will benefit from the money that could travel from china after they become possibly included and connect with shanghai and

shenzhen. the u.s. and china decoupling risks are a trend ongoing. the ppo has not hammered out a deal so that is $2 trillion worth of companies that could face delisting risk. tom: thank you very much. alibaba seeking a primary listing in hong kong. shares up 6% for the e-commerce giant. staying with tech, a number of u.s. companies like

the market reaction with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: as you mentioned, it is optimism that you would see access boosting the light of alibaba and the hang seng, helping give impetus to markets that were under -- otherwise in a holding pattern ahead of the fed. gaining around a third of 1% on the pacific index. this could lead to less reliance on u.s. adrs and give a boon to tech players that have been under pressure due to the year-long crackdown. today's move, a significant upside. china stock rising despite some moves in terms of covid infections rising and that is called -- causing concern about the output of factories that closed. volumes on the shanghai comp, on the lowest for 2022. let's have a look at how we trade when it comes to those adrs because the stock daily traded value is above what you see in hong kong which is the yellow line, three times as much. positive calls coming through in terms of what this means in terms of actors -- acts from investors.

tom: fantastic. the wider market implications of the plan for alibaba to have a primary listing in hong kong. 1:00 p.m. u.k. time, hungary's central bank rate decision followed by u.s. data including consumer confidence and new-home sales. data stateside is looking softer. big tech earnings, alphabet and microsoft both reporting after the bell. next, recession risks way on investors as all eyes shift towards decision day at the fed. we speak with -- plus, blue on blue attack. trashing economic policies in the race to become the uk's next prime minister. we have analysis later.

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>> the trigger for the financial distress be a recession and recession is going to be severe and protracted. >> use every lever we can to bring prices down but to do so when a way that doesn't have to give up all the economic gains we have. >> there is a likelihood of third and fourth quarter, may be the economy will stagnate but might fall into recession. >> will we have a recession or not? the signals are no. there might be a soft landing but you never know. >> the alternative is to let your foot off the brake. that makes the agony longer, stretching out over years. tom: different outlooks on

recession risk from some bloomberg contributor's. joining us for more's the deputy headed developed markets and research. thanks for joining us. your views on the data you see? let's start with the u.s. then moved to the eu. some of the data looking a little softer, heading up to the fed decision this week. the pce deflating data later this week. what is your assessment of recession risks in the u.s. and what flavor recession we may get, if that is your base case? >> recession is not our base case. we expect -- we do not expect a recession. in the u.s., demand slowing. you have inflation, several

leading companies with hiring plans that are doing layoffs. you have labor markets that remain strong. one big difference with america and the eurozone is exporting energy. we do not expect a recession. i think what is important is of course the recession risk. we have no inflation. we have central banks taking aggressive steps to cool down the inflation but i think the question is, where is the slowdown in growth? will it kill inflation? the question coming next for investors, not only is the recession risk but will this slowdown in growth kill inflation? tom: that ties into the debate

that is emanating between those who see a fed absolutely determined to get back to 2% or thereabouts, and others who say they are going to wobble when it comes to weaker u.s. data and if inflation comes down, a be you get a fed pivot. where do you stand on that? are you looking for a fed pivot? >> we are waiting for the moment where we will have a fed that is being more dovish but that is not the mood of the fed right now. the fed is determined to cool down inflation and continue to hike rates. we expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next meeting. for the time come -- for the time, the fed and central banks look more concerned about the risk of inflation expectations and downside risk weighing on growth. the big concern of central banks is inflation.

maybe in some months when we have lower pressure and slowdown in inflation, but this is not the mood right now. no the mood is fighting inflation. tom: we can't talk about inflation without talking about gas flows. the news that russia is cutting gas flows again, a reminder of the way putin is trying to play this. how do you position around that? how much of the reduction in gas is priced in across european equities? >> for the time we remain cautious on equities. when we talk about the risk of recession, the risk is much more a concern for the euro zone than for the u.s.. in the euro zone, reliance on russian oil and gas remains a threat for the euro zone economies and also the reduction

of the dependency. really, we have to keep in mind america is a big exporter of energy. the euro zone relies on russian oil and gas. that makes the difference. tom: i these estimates too optimistic? >> not really optimistic at this stage. tom: are the earnings estimates we are seeing, are they overly optimistic? >> of course. we think they are very optimistic and we expect downward recession but that is what we are seeing. in the publication of results, they look quite good in appearance but some companies have reported and we have a large majority that are surprising on the upside on

earnings. when you look at guidance, many companies are touching on the guidance in the u.s. and the euro zone. they are affected by many factors. there is a jump in production. you have inflation that is weighing on consumers. i think the fundamentals from any quality -- the fundamentals are come -- of companies are good but deterioration is coming. tom: the haven status of high-quality credit, essentially chinese equities as well. >> we are turning more positive on chinese equities because we think this asset class will benefit from a reopening of the chinese economy and also will benefit from the support that is in place. we are more positive on chinese equities. tom: valentine, deputy head of

the dow looked -- developed markets research at amundi. a preference to the u.s. over europe when it comes to equities and a call on high-quality credit. we have big interviews coming up on bloomberg. you bsc at 7:00 a.m. followed by unilever's ceo at 8:00 and another ceo at 9:00 -- at 9:30. plus, rishi sunak and liz truss trash each other's economic plans. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. first word news with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: russia again reducing the flow of gas to germany. gazprom says it will cut shipment on wednesday morning to about 20% of capacity, blaming maintenance issues. it says one of six major turbines remain in working condition. coinbase global said to be facing a u.s. investigation as to whether it improperly let americans trade digital assets that should be registered as securities. the fcc chair previously said trading platforms should do more to protect retail investors. a surprise cut to profit outlooks for the second time. citing the need for lower prices

and bloated inventories. walmart said earnings will fall 13% in the current fiscal year. it said consumers are shifting to spending on necessities, hitting margins. global news 24 hours per day, on-air and on quick take by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. tom? tom: thank you. now to the u.k. leadership race. rishi sunak and liz truss faced often a tv debate. -- faced off in a tv debate. they clashed over brexit, china and inflation. >> your economic advisor said that would lead to mortgage rates, interest rates going up to 7%. can you imagine what that will do for everyone? that is thousands of pounds on their mortgage bills. that will tip millions into misery. >> everybody thinks putting up taxes at this moment is going to hurt the economy.

you can't put up taxes and get growth. if we follow rishi's plans -- tom: joining me is lizzy burden. is this an expensive debate over economics? >> they have to simplify the messages, but there is a difference between the candidates. they want to cut taxes, but they want to do it on different time frames. liz truss says doing it faster will drive growth. rishi sunak says it will drive inflation. our economists say it will drive both. rishi sunak signed hid -- cited an economist that liz truss cited that said interest rates will have to go up 7% because of the inflationary impact of her tax cuts. the other way of simplifying the debate is to see rishi sunak as

the continuity candidate which helps liz truss. he intends to continue economic policies from when he was chancellor. liz truss is the continuity candidate because she hasn't yet resigned. she is still the foreign secretary in boris johnson's cabinet. the fact that rishi sunak was one of the first resignations to trigger the mass exodus of ministers that brought boris johnson down is going down badly with party membership who is voting because he is portrayed as a traitor. tom: was there are clear winner from the debate? >> it got personal. they were trading barbs about what kind of schools they went to, what kind of clothes they wear. liz truss said sunak was mansplaining. if you look at who is voting, it is a tiny minority of the population, 100 70,000 people make up the party membership. the policies they will introduce

look very different to what they are pitching now. you campaign in poetry but you govern in prose. it is interesting rishi sunak seems to do better with the general population whereas liz truss does better with the minority of conservative party members. it may be her that gets over the line and becomes prime minister when it could have been rishi sunak who was more likely to win the general election. tom: always got your finger on the pulse of the politics in the u.k. and the rivals between the contenders. we will see if rishi sunak moves the dial. a haven in tough economic times. plus remy cointreau results in a few this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes.

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tom: good morning from bloomberg's headquarters. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." adding fuel to the buyer, precious plan to further produce gas flows to germany this week as european energy ministers gather to discuss contingency plans. alibaba will open its doors to mainland china as investors by seeking a primary listing in hong kong. there's shares search. ubs second quarter profit misses amid -- the outpost of $12 million of their asset management unit, we speak with the ceo this morning. we are in the midst of earnings season. looking ahead to the big tech names,'s right side, microsoft and alphabet.

revenue of $409 million -- one million euros. the beat on the revenue line for remy cointreau, there maintaining their full-year guidance. organic revenue up 27%. we will get more is that comes through. a decent set of numbers. we will have the interview with the ceo of ubs. many premise -- manus cranny the ground in zurich. a looming energy crisis and potential global recession, could they find shelter in the luxury sector. as earnings season ramps up. join us now,, let's start with a

question, is luxury now a safe haven? >> i think you led to the answer with the remy cointreau earnings, the company released sustained strong momentum. particularly an entire range of cardiac brands. it does suggest there's it to seed environment, we had walmart warning on weak consumer demand. on the other hand, very robust result this morning from remy cointreau and premium chocolate brands. tom: it is fascinating, the consumer sentence cements we are starting to see. the drumbeat around recession is getting louder. >> the question is on how

comfortable the high-end consumer remains with their spending behavior while equity markets continue volatile performance. while there are surveys that indicate high end consumers are starting to feel the pinch, in terms of actual behavior, they are not yet changing their behavior that meaningfully. they reported a 13% sales growth. it is a small company, but i would expect to see after market close report extremely robust figures sustained by strong brand momentum. even if we consider china's of a big drag on numbers the second quarter because of lockdowns, companies, three or growth it 50%, that scale insulates it from a lot of the costs.

tom: is that pricing coming through for this luxury names. they able to pass on the costs to their consumers. no sign of weakness then, that pricing power is being maintained? >> pricing power actually has been stronger than ever this year. a lot of companies have managed to take advantage of the inflationary situation to put prices while in excess of what the cost base require, considering these companies already have growth margins in excess of 70%. they already have latent pricing power they have managed to fully exploit this year. the key is consumer response. as long as demand remains inelastic, they are able to push prices through. the question is how much longer they can keep doing that. to date, there is little

evidence consumers are showing resistance, is this normalization has returned, is brought a desire to replenish wardrobes, maybe even -- tom: you touched on china and the concerns about covid zero. the lockdowns around shanghai, a major driver. to what extent has the u.s. and europe been able to make up for the shortfalls in terms of buying power of china? >> up and surprise of the early results of gotten from companies, pre-pandemic, the can -- chinese consumer dominated the luxury sector, driving a third of demand at 90% of growth. that has become more balanced, particularly as chinese tourists are not able to travel abroad. all that demand has been repatriated domestically. we seen a huge rise in the u.s. consumer. a lot of that demand shortfall in china, where sales were

estimated to be down anywhere between 30% and 50% in the second quarter, was able to be offset, not just by the u.s. consumers of but also by the middle eastern consumer. benefiting from the stronger oil price. as well as strong demand for locals as well as traveling americans in europe. tom: are these stocks looking to do at this point and what are your favorite picks? >> the sector has priced aggressively by 35% or so. that is despite earnings continue to go up. some of it is the weaker euro as these companies are exporters as they benefit from the weak euro. viewing an earnings class being around the corner. we see little evidence of this. we would point to the impact of prior recessions, and noting that the luxury sector tends to be more resilient than high street retail in responding to

economic crises. with that in mind, we think the current earnings berating is excessive, it seems to be pricing and an earnings decline that is unwarranted or unseen so far. without months of the sector is now trading at pre--- below pre-pandemic levels, despite margins on average around 500 to eight hundred basis points higher than pre-pandemic levels. it is hard to make the disconnect. tom: the earnings ratings -- some opportunities there potentially as the u.s. and europe take up that shortfall in china. thank you, the investment director at gm. let's check in on your markets. after a mixed picture across the u.s. yesterday, european equities, up, crossing from russia around reduced gas flows.

that is 40% to 27%. looking ahead to the fed position on wednesday, we have the likes of ed saying maybe things have bombed out, saying anyone who thinks this bull market -- bear market rally is going to be sustained, they are delusional. european stocks futures, looking -- nasdaq futures down .4% as we look to microsoft and alphabet trading's. brent is up 1.5%. bitcoin, 21,000 100s of that is off by almost 5%. we are going to be looking at walmart, and the u.s. session yesterday, cutting their guidance before the earnings. down 9.9% in post market trading. their having to cut prices, consumers turning more cool on the prospects, or their ability,

cutting that guidance for the second time. medevac and coinbase by the sec. we have some big interviews coming up, at seven :00 u.k. time, followed by unilever ceo at 8:00. and doonesbury seo at 9:00 -- at 930:00. europe still faces a challenge in a cold winter given the shortages of gas from russia. will discuss that later. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: welcome back. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm tom mackenzie, in london.

russia sharply reducing the flow of gas to germinate, reminding europe of the daunting challenge the continent basis to build up its energy by winter. the eu countries such a tussle over an emergency regulation that could force 15% cuts in gas consumption during the cold months. we bring in our editor in brussels. how significant is because problems announcement, and the volatility around gas flows russia tear. >> it is very significant. we have to remember it europe relies on russia for 40% of its gas supplies. all it has seen this year is this continuous reduction in volume. we are now 12 out of 27 member states have experienced reduction this year, which is set off alarm bells. we have to remember this is happening at a time when member

states are rushing to fill their gas storage for the winter. the targets they have, 80% by november, with this reduction, there is no guarantee. even further, if gas supplies are cut completely, then the gas storages will be billed only by 65% to 71% by november. that is significant difference. when this news came from gazprom, benchmark gas prices jumped as much as 12%. the commission estimates that if gas is cut off completely, it could reduce eu by 1.5%. tom: potential 1.5% hit to european gdp, within that, is

there anything else we can expect in terms of addressing the shortfall? >> this is an emergency meeting to address the situation. also, the plan from the european commission, which is to use executive arm to help save gas consumption and reduce it by 15%. over the next eight months. so far, this is voluntary. a lot of member states have expressed concern about the number, which is voluntary and out, but can become mandatory if gas is cut off completely. there will be debate about it in brussels. an emergency meeting of energy ministers, already yesterday, at the ambassadorial levels of the have requested quite a bit of flexibility, taking into account each country suck up situation

and many other factors. tom: you touched on this, how prepared is europe already? how much work is been done? >> europe has been preparing itself on many fronts. obviously the biggest long-term program is the so-called repower eu package, focusing on energy saving measures, and energy efficiency, but immediately, we have seen that it has to be addressed for this winter. the european union has been in touch with many countries to receive lng deliveries and pipeline gas from countries to help fill up the storages to this 80%. tom: the challenges facing european officials as russia cuts those gas flows from 40% to

20%. still a lot of uncertainty. let's stay with that story, russia cuts natural gas supplies to europe is intensifying global competition. threatening higher prices and shortages from asia to south america. let's bring in bloomberg's energy reporter. what is the wider impact on other regions and markets of the events playing out in europe? >> this is not just a europe story. the global gas market is that. it is global. more interconnected than ever before. when russia cuts apply to europe, as you said, europe needs to make it up by replacing the fuel with lng. liquefied natural gas is sent by ship around the world. biggest buyers of lng are in

north asia. there are also buyers in south america, the fact of the matter is the work europe buys lng, the more they are in direct competition with those other regions. we are all raising prices search to the highest level for this time of year. it is threatening countries like pakistan, bangladesh, argentina can no longer afford to buy the lng. there just isn't enough supply in the market. this is having a global impact, and higher inflation for the countries they're buying it like japan and south korea. utilities are accelerating purchases there because they are worried europe is going to try to ward as much lng as possible. you have japanese ministers -- is having a global impact. what happens with nord stream reverberates around the world. tom: ripples far beyond germany.

what are the abilities of the major gas producers. australia's of the u.s. to ramp up production. >> in the short term, i'm talk about this winter, there is very little i can do. they can maybe squeeze out a little more supply. it is challenging to boost lng output in the short term. longer term, there is a lot that can do. they can expand capacity. that is not going to come online until 2026. lng export facilities are giant infrastructure pieces that take a lot of investment, billions of dollars and years to put online. there is not much they can do in the short term. longer-term, they can try to address the supply crunch. that means we are not just looking at 20 winter is a but also 2023, potentially 2024 also going to be type as it takes years to come online. tom: 2026, years away, who knows

what could happen in the energy markets between now and then. talk to us about the linkage between gas and oil, some upside for oil, what are the linkages between gas and oil, how much inflation is going on? >> it is the same thing you are seeing with lng, the less russian gas europe gets, they have to find a replacement. one of the replacements, let's burn oil, so there are few oil, many different products, diesel that can be used to produce electricity. you are seeing some countries over the last few months have said, we are fearing we are going to run out of gas, let's turn on our diesel plants. let's turn on our field oil plans. those plans are derby, they produce more emissions than natural gas. that is why they were not being used. now because there's a gas shortage, they are doing that,

not just europe, also in pakistan, bangladesh, the japanese are buying up more fuel oil to produce electricity. as there is less gas in the markets of more oil goes into the power sector, that does help provide support for prices around the world for brent oil and wti. tom: the climate hit as well from all this. thank you, bloomberg's stephen stapczynski, on this production and gas supplies to the european union. coming, alibaba listing and calm, to directly buy shares in the e-commerce giant. the story next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tom: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm tom mackenzie in london.

let's get back to one of the big stories and asia this morning. alibaba seeking a primary listing in hong kong, paving the way for investors and try not to directly by shares of the country's most prominent e-commerce company for the first time. joining me now, lulu chen, are we going to see more chinese tech companies seeking these primary listings in hong kong? is that the trend? >> i think we are going to see this going forward, given that delisting risks, and help the countries are coupling. i think this is something the hong kong stock exchange has been pushing for. alibaba being the largest of all the chinese tech companies, treading new ground here. and as the base becomes chinese investors will be able to put money into the company finally. tom: what is the reason, we've had some management changes, reshuffling, what is the reason alibaba is removing the

executives from its partnership. lulu: in the past two years, the china tech crackdowns up we've seen them -- to meet the demands of chinese regulators, the removal of executors from alibaba's partnerships of the company itself, there are ongoing corporate governance, and the fact they will only want alibaba employees to see this partnership. that will determine key employment decisions -- they get to nominate the -- the company is making dressing changes in its own board. and also shakeup. i think that is all part of the larger shakeups we are seeing in china's tech industry right now. tom: on that note, tying in your

experience, focusing on finance across asia, but your past experience covering tech in china, what is your sense of where things stand in terms of this regulatory crackdown, and the appetite for foreign investors to get exposure to these companies again? >> there's two things people are looking at right now. one is the fines, whether that is the end of crackdowns for this company, what will the company be able to resume its apps in the app stores. the other thing is, the record ipo was torpedoed by regulators. it is not going to happen again? and the financial holding license. tom: getting a gauge on the clarity on the regulatory front when comes to china and that squeeze across the tech companies. lulu chen, thank you as ever.

while we are on the story of text that we have a number of big u.s. companies reporting this week, including alphabet and microsoft. meta-, spotify and amazon come later in the week. very interesting deceit, particularly around microsoft and amazon's of the cloud services part. but also bundles, given the hit we sought snap and twitter last week. how much will that slow down on meta-. let's check on the futures as week lit up, an hour away from the open here in europe. gains for european equities yesterday, a mixed picture on wall street, nasdaq futures down .3% as we lead up to those big tech. futures europe pointing to point does a loss of .1%. the gas rate, further reductions from your russia to europe, energy meetings -- ministers are

meeting. ftse 100 futures, -- dax futures essentially range bound as things stand. the fed decision on wednesday, expectations for a 75 basis point hike. also the inflation sector out of europe, as manufacturing gazes desk gauges point to a slowdown across the european economy. this is the old pictures of 3% on your to year is up 2.88 under five years, we see that yield inversion between the two and five, for many that is a gauge of an imminent recession. 2.59 on your tenure. the big rate decision we are watching for this week is the fed, poised to hike rates by 75 basis points. do not miss our coverage

tomorrow for that crucial decision from the federal reserve. of course the commentary from jay powell will be decisive as well in terms of its effect. it's get back to the big u.s. -- why the big earnings story, ubs reported net income that missed the average estimate, let's delve into the details of those figures with bloomberg's manus cranny in europe. what was your take away from what looked to be a bad of numbers. manus: the report had the from the ceo called this muted. don 17%, blending, down 12%. net you see generating assets, $24 billion -- 24 billion. i'm going to replay a

conversation i had to qualify some of that take. the concept that the investment bank did better, obviously rate students of the fx business to do better. i don't know how the market is going to react to this. not just in wealth management, asset management saw outflows of $12 billion as well. tom: the question of course about when those private clients come back. currently on the sidelines, we want to get the details from the ceo, there's a key question, income -- net income, 2.1 one billion versus 2.4 4 billion's the estimate. we sat down, with the ceo of ubs, take a listen. >> it was a quarter with diff