>> the market is waiting to see clear signs of a recession. >> we could argue about whether or not it is a recession technically or whether or not the slowdown is a loss of momentum. >> we are so concerned for those confluence of risks. >> the fed needs to have a policy stance, a trajectory on inflation and dynamics on growth. >> markets are not going to be surprised by 75 basis points. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa

abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. walmart reaches for the scissors once again. tom: walmart is front and center but it is an amazingly convoluted morning with all sorts of stuff going on. you will get to lufthansa in europe coming up but what you see with walmart is not so much econo babble but actual consumer action. consumers saying i have to buy this, not that. jonathan: we have an execution problem in the mix as well. tom: gm out and we will talk to the cfo and you wonder what the execution mix at gm is as well. who cares about the recession.

corporations are adapting and adjusting. jonathan: stockmarkets adjusting as well and bramo, we talk about these issues again and again and people come out and say they are well priced and target and walmart prove us. those people are wrong because it is not well priced at all. lisa: that is going to become a theme, trying to parse out the distinction in this nebulous world. how much do we see walmart representing what we will see in other retailers? certainly stocks seem to be reflecting a broader based fear of pain but how much should we get confirmation of that with alphabet and microsoft? consumers have a weaker balance sheet than most expected. jonathan: do we start to see them get more conservative on guidance if they are conservative on hiring? lisa: you would think they would have to be, otherwise how do

they justify it? unless you have some sort of justification for why you are paring back your expansion plan, then wouldn't you be punished as a stock investor? wouldn't you punish that company for not taking advantage of weakness in competitors? unless they see a situation that is weaker, why not take advantage of hiring as others pare back? jonathan: gm can see the future. they are expected to meet year-end earnings guidance. tom: that is what they say but right now, they are not ok. i don't know what the stock is doing. help me with what gm is doing with the banner on radio. the answer is adjusted, they are missing estimates. jonathan: the outlook for the second half is strong, according to the ceo. i'll tell you what the stock is doing. down about 1.5%. over in the european union, we have this big conversation about reducing gas consumption. eu countries agree to reduce gas

use for next winter. what do you make of these headlines lisa? lisa: basically you will look for all the carveouts as greece and italy and other nations push back and say this will hurt their economies. they have a problem. they are realizing they have a problem as gazprom reduced yet again to 20%, the flow of gas. as soon as tomorrow. how much can they get ahead of this versus the political fraying of nations that can't tolerate reducing their gas input by 15%. jonathan: gas prices in europe, higher again. tom: lufthansa has a strike and i will say it dovetails off of the war in ukraine and economic slowdowns. basically frankfurt shut down. i'm glad we got out after that ecb meeting. it really saved us. you've got markets moving. i'm going to look at markets as the thing to give me the most information. the euro is weaker. we are off the recent record

swiss franc as well. you see it in natural gas as well. this is dutch natural gas and all you need to know is that we are back to february 24. we spiked up. jonathan: a weaker euro story. are you just having an ongoing conversation with our producer? tom: he is saving me. jonathan: i want to bring up this headline. limited hiring, critical needs. looking forward to tech earnings later. futures negative 2/10 of 1%. yields come in a couple basis points. tom talking about that swiss franc strength. lisa: energy ministers from the

bloc coming together to talk about reducing their use of natural gas by 15% heading into the winter as a result of fear of a cut off by russia and the idea is they are already looking at inventories that are low. natural gas prices are surging to the highest levels going back to march and a bit concerned that they can't get ahead of this because so many nations do not want to reduce their natural gas use. today we get a slew of economic data including the latest u.s. home pricing index for the month of may and also july consumer confidence as well as new-home sales. this survey has been more bullish, the university of michigan reading to be get into dear your ration -- do we get a deterioration? today we do get earnings, the beginning of one of the biggest earnings moments of this year. microsoft and alphabet reporting after the bell. more importantly, advertising. how much are companies starting

to pull on advertising considering consumers are being more discretionary? we do get coca-cola, mcdonald's and chipotle, how much they confirm what we saw in walmart. jonathan: bramo, thank you. earnings down by 8.6 1% as walmart cuts their profit outlook once again. joining us now is john stoltzfus . you've been unapologetically bullish at times. what do you make of those walmart numbers? do we have a broader problem with the consumer? john: it is a combination of the two in the case of walmart and we have seen this before in the last reporting season. it just happens to be the ordered to much of the wrong thing and i think that was probably on expectations that they weren't going to get enough of what they were importing. we have seen that across a

company -- a number of companies in retail. tom: i want to talk about sector selection. how critical is sector selection in 2023? john: with ticket is important in the sense that we have to be forward-looking. it is like john mclaughlin's second or first album. when do you want to be buying stocks? it is usually when they are low and nobody else wants them. we like consumer discretionary, we like technology, we like industrials and financials. in the market perform area, we continue to see terrio's and energy likely have further moved to the upside. lisa: what is going to trigger the s&p to get to 4800 as your prediction says by the end of this year, considering the concerns about recession and the fact that the fed is not going to retrace any time soon?

nobody is pricing that in for this year. john: the big thing is we have to realize that whether there is trouble on the horizon or at the moment, generally speaking, there is a preponderance of negative projection moving forward and that is usually where you have the opportunities. we remember 2009, talking with the press and i was with another firm at that time and we thought there was a likely opportunity for a rally in march. at the end of the first quarter in 2009, everybody was very bearish and they stayed bearish for much of that year. it is also compounded by the fact that whatever the fed is in a hike cycle or accommodating, the general thought as the fed will fail. for some reason that always comes out.

eventually the fed even as it makes mistakes has proven that it does the job. i don't recall but i think 39 years ago, the s&p 500 was around 150 or so when i got into this business. last i looked, it was around 3900. jonathan: how would you know if you were wrong? what would tell you? john: if the fed would push us into a significantly dark recession, which i don't think it plans to do. we have a chairman who is known to be able to pivot both in terms of stopping raising rates as well as getting on the ball when they were behind the curve. if they failed to show sensitivity to the amount of reaction to their actions, i think that would be a problem. this is the legacy fed that

remains highly sensitive to the effects of its actions. everything is the uncertainty -- the other thing is the uncertainty. the war in ukraine, china's no tolerance covid policy. overall, balance sheets, corporations remain good. people are experienced with adversity, since 2009. we have to say the consumer has put on the brakes. you've got the fact that they are actually showing up at the stores, telling the stores we will tolerate just so much increase prices and with

technology, that is the ability for input costs to come down because of people doing comparison-shopping. there could be do anything as bad as some people are predicting. based on the market performance, people were so dismal about what was happening in 1994 in the market was only down 1.57% for the year. jonathan: i wasn't expecting an answer that long. my producer is screaming in my ear. i wish i could give you more time. john stoltz foods of oppenheimer -- john stoltzfus of oppenheimer. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: keeping you up-to-date with the news from around the world, with the "first word

news," i am leigh-ann gerrans. the european union has a plan to reduce natural gas use 15% in the winter. energy ministers meeting in brussels gave the green light to a proposal to voluntarily cut gas usage over the next month. the british economy -- in the first head-to-head debate. the two are battling to replace boris johnson as prime minister. -- claims that tax cuts would increase inflation and interest rates. however, -- says their plan would drive the country into recession. lufthansa says it will have to cancel almost all of its flights in frankfurt and munich because of a strike by workers. it will impact more than 1000 flights.

retail stocks falling, the world's largest retailer cut profit outlooks. walmart says profits will fall as much is 13% in the current fiscal year as shoppers turned away from big-ticket items -- turn away from big-ticket items. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle....

welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system used by over half of the fortune 500. for a be-agile-like-an-mvp world. workday. for a changing world.

>> we are not going to hit a recession in my view. my hope is that we go from this rapid growth to a steady growth. we will see some recovery down but i don't think we're going to see a recession. tom: president -- jonathan: president biden on the latest debate, is it a recession or not? on the nasdaq 100, we are down a third of 1%. walmart down nine percentage points as they have to cut their outlook. a bit of good news out of europe if you can call it that. an agreement from eu countries. they have to cut back on gas used by 15% through next winter as you see gas prices going one direction. euro-dollar right now, -8/10 of 1%. tom: look at this, right now, a huge deal, the swiss franc reaches the euro.

weak euro, strong swiss franc. there is some real tension in europe right now. jonathan: they're going to cut back on gas use potentially through the weekend -- potentially through the winter. tom: there is the war and ukraine, there is the gas use and the argument of germany and russia the olds over to gdp and recession as well. brent crude at 107. it has not moved like nat gas but there is no other way to put it. such a busy day ahead. looking at gm and walmart, right now let's look across america, at the silliness of the recession debate. joe mathieu is our expert and merriam-webster says there are eight definitions. we don't have time for all eight bubble we can say is that there is great research on how the middle class is absolutely flattened.

michigan owns the high ground on this. the people in the middle. is joe biden's middle-class different than a given republican candidate's middle-class? joe: it depends what state and what city and what town you are talking about. so many americans are dealing with different circumstances but the inflationary circumstance is across-the-board. to get into this, for days before the gdp report comes out, just another term for this white house to trying get ahead of economic data it has no control over. it does sound like they are trying to move the goal line a little bit when it comes to the definition of a recession. most people to your point don't think about it this way, whether it is two consecutive quarters of negative growth. they just know that it costs too much to fill their tank. tom: i'm out of touch on this,

and you do this every single day with the sound on. who owns the middle class right now? republicans or democrats? joe: it is a great question that may not be able to be answered because what is the middle class? the problem is defining what that is. joe biden has an idea about it. he thinks about union workers in the good old days, made in america. republicans might have a different idea. maybe it is maga or folks who show up in pickup trucks to hear from donald trump today. this reinforces the fact that we don't know what the middle class is. lisa: joe biden is facing a difficult situation economically. looking at the pandemic and the war in ukraine. how much are we looking at a messaging problem? when they are trying to get to the definition of a tech support recession and a real recession, leading to laughter in many places, saying it feels like and

smells like and sounds like a recession. why are we parsing these details? joe: it is a messaging problem. when you are spending time explaining the definition of a recession, we are trying to get ahead of the cpi to ask lane the difference between headline and core numbers, you are losing the room. these are bigger issues to your point that impact people's lives. when we start drilling down on these things, the news is going to be bad on thursday. the way people interpret it is not going to be guided by the messaging out of the white house briefing room. lisa: the news was bad last night with walmart. that might be more important than a technical recession, especially if it is confirmed and other retail earnings and throughout the week. how do they take this message that consumers are spending less on other goods because they are spending so much on gas and food? how do they do something like that and propose something into the midterms or is this them

acknowledging defeat? joe: acknowledging people's pain is another way of looking at it. another comp ash a lot of confidence from the resident that while this is not a recession, we know people are feeling the impact and this is our biggest your witty. that kind of dilutes the message and it is not lost on me that right now, tom will have a sense of this, the fact that lawmakers in massachusetts are looking at reinstating happy hour should tell you a lot, as i also see on the terminal. tom: are you going to do it remote from home -- from foley's? we have to do a remote from tom english. joe: that would be a ball. i will meet you at the vfw. jonathan: i'm just following the boston talk, trying to keep up. joe mathieu, thank you.

this conversation about recession, not a recession, it is absolutely ridiculous. it always comes down to depth, duration and diffusion. how much is the weakness spreading? right now they are pointing out that it has not reached the labor market in a pronounced way. that is what we should be discussing, whether we start to see the weakness spread into the labor market and seeing several signs of that over the last few months. tom: i would suggest that in the polarity of the overlay of technology in the last 10 and 15 years, it will accentuate the inequalities within recession. there is going to be a group of have-nots, and the haves, there will be a recession for them but they will somehow slide by. jonathan: it has become very political very quickly. lisa: at a certain point, are we parsing differences that don't matter because at the same time you are seeking to -- you are

seeing certain pockets. fascinating to me that general motors came out, reducing hiring to the essential areas. how much will we start to see signals like this, that the they were market aspect is getting affected and very quickly. jonathan: flames starting to creep up. tom: it is the earnings silliness. can we do the banner please? free cash flow pushed quote into the future. jonathan: i thought we stopped covering ge? i was so happy after that. i think that means you've got to wait a little longer. futures down 4/10 on the s&p. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.

jonathan: a lot to talk about. equity futures look like this, down 4/10 of 1% on the s&p. the nasdaq down one and a half percent.

let's do the walmart story, we are negative, down by more than 9%. target down by five percentage points. is this an execution problem or a sign of consumer weakness? possibly a mix of both. it is not a revenue story, it is a margin story and that is why we have to cut the outlook. for those of you who say we have been talking about this for ages, we are down 9% on walmart. talking about the bond market, i was hurting to see a sign of weakness in the labor market based on claims in the last three weeks? we will have to keep a look on that. those three weeks of claims are not enough. that two day meeting begins with yields in four basis points on a

10 year. that inversion pushing 25 basis points. tom: if you look at and along -- anna wong's publication, an upper range of 5%. that is the first time i have seen that. she shifts 100 per -- sheesh -- to 5%. what does your data screen look like with a 4.65%, 4.75% setting for the fed a year out? jonathan: absolutely hammered. tom: absolutely stunning. are you done? i think euro swiss speaks volumes. jonathan: good news they can

agree on something. they have agreed to limit gas consumption. they've basically reduce potential growth. i think russia was going to do that for them anyway. russian gas is coming into europe at reduced capacity through nord stream one. for me, this is the problem the ecb has got. prices remained elevated because russia is going to reduce supply. what are you going to do? you are going to temper growth and at the same time fail to bring down gas prices? it could get even messier in europe. i don't know what september looks like. tom: we welcome all of you on bloomberg radio and television. minnesota mining out right now and they take down sales from positive statistics to outright negative statistics. -4.5%. that is a precursor for a

conversation with william lee, chief economist at milken institute and so constant -- so confident on international economics and also a student of our domestic economy. on the break into this, we were talking about this recession and you say for america, it is different. this is a recession where workers will benefit and the fancy people may not. william: given the shortage that we had in warehouse workers, service workers, waiters and nurses, it is clear that the wage increases are telling everyone we need more of them. even as the economy turns down, the amazon's of the world will continue to hire blue-collar workers. this will be the first white collar recession and the history of the united states. if we were to have a recession that spreads into the labor market, regular workers out there will be safer than computer programmers and middle managers. tom: i don't understand the

distinction of an outright recession and something you and i used to call a growth recession. i used to feel pretty bad in a growth recession right? william: when things slow down, income slows down and spending slows down because you feel crummy. you don't have enough money to spend. given the high inflation we have now, stagflation really is a candidate -- condition for a growth recession. you don't feel good in that environment. lisa: how quickly could we see labor really turn? william: that is a great question because right now, we have a tight labor market and we have so many vacancies out there but if you look at the pace of hiring, firms are hiring at a faster pace even though they were raising wages. i think there is a microeconomic dis-equilibrium going on.

they have now retrained themselves and have qualified for better jobs at higher pay. the only way to solve this problem is with higher productivity and the only way to do that is to have adequate investment and we will not see that with the shortfall in earnings that companies are experiencing. lisa: just to parse that out a little more, are you basically saying that this is going to write itself in the near term and that you will start to see a creeping up in the unemployment rate? how does this trajectory change and people talk about a technical recession but not a real one? william: as we see the negative gdp growth, we will see the weakness spread into the broader economy and the firms will react by hiring more of the blue-collar workers because they need them, but they will try to employ technology to rollback the advanced workers. you will see unemployment start to affect that segment of the labor market.

service sector is a large sector of that market. tom: jp morgan was on yesterday. they made it clear that it is exports to the rescue as possibly the pacific rim opens up. are you optimistic that we will get export growth off of the pacific rim or is that something that awaits covid and the reopening of china? william: that is a loaded question because he was a classmate of mine columbia and we go back a long way. as much as i admire him, i think he has missed it there. exports to the pacific rim are going to be limited because growth from the pacific rim, mainly china is going to be limited. china is suffering from enormous dislocation with covid policies and shuts down -- and shutdowns and a huge rise in youth unemployment. it is affecting consumer spending. the only source of demand that

may come from the pacific rim is the outer rim. tom: this is so important. it is a totalitarian regime, one going into a party fest in november. can they unilaterally affect a slowdown or depression? william: they are trying to goose up the economy like crazy, issuing date -- debt and trying to use the same old playbook. the private sector is what is collapsing and given the property markets are no longer a real store of wealth for people, people are not spending. as far as i can see, china is going to take a while to recover . lisa: to tie a bow on all this, yesterday we had two guests on. they said we had seen the bottom of the stock market and things were looking up in the u.s. economy was resilient and the world wasn't so bad. the other came on and said it

could be worse than the 1970's, facing stagflation and all sorts of terrible things. where do you stand? william: congratulations on your range of guests. i stand in the middle. the markets seem to be stiffing out a bottom because seeing the bottom of the recession that has yet to come, they are seeing the bottom and they are planning for the recovery. as far as the rest of us are concerned, high prices. . are still killing us inflation will likely take longer. consumer depression is likely going to hang on for a while. jonathan: good to catch up, as always. william lee from the milken institute. deutsche bank asked an important question. how long -- it is not just about where we will peak but how long we will stay. looking at the last three fed tightening cycles. the time spent at peak was seven months in 2012 and six months in 2018.

he said this present cycle raises the prospect of staying at peak fed funds a whole lot longer. something we have not talked about enough. tom: it is a huge issue and that is why the 1947-1952 analog doesn't fit. they cleared the markets very rapidly and it is interesting, that persistency is a sum of inflation, the persistency of inflation. i get a lot of hate mail -- i know you get all the love notes. the hate mail i'm getting is inflation is going to come down. come down to what? 7%, 5%? is 5% acceptable? is that harmful to the middle class of america with no wage gains? these are important questions. year-end is like tomorrow.

jonathan: i'm not sure how we can get this down to 4% without doing real damage. lisa: alan ruskin's point is well taken, especially because this feeds into the market expectation currently being baked in that the fed is going to start cutting rates next year which means the moment they spent at peak rates is basically a blink of the eye, that they can do it quickly and then go back down. especially if we don't see a weakening in the labor market, that might be the linchpin of both the fed actions as well as how deep and difficult this recession will be. jonathan: how many times have you heard an equity bull say that chairman powell has proven he can pivot. chairman powell has proven he can make mistakes but enough that requires him to pivot. lisa: i love we are at the place where all equities are to just are rate strategists and right now, my head is spinning. jonathan: my head is spinning.

the nasdaq is down five or 6/10 of 1%. tom: can you make the tang stronger? there is no sugar in it. jonathan: from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ leigh-ann: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the "first word news," i am leigh-ann gerrans. the european union is preparing for the possibility of a full cut of russian energy supplies. they agreed to cut natural gas used by 15% through next winter. the rapid pace of the agreement reflects dwindling gas flow from russia. supplies are set to drop to around 20% of capacity. former president donald trump

returns to washington today for the first time since leaving office. he will make a speech to aipac working an agenda for a possible second term and an aide folks -- says he will focus on public safety. the visit comes as the january 6 committee has been detailing his attempts to remain in power and his refusal to call off of a violent mob -- call off a violent mob of his supporters. business activities resumed and confidence also improved despite disruptions from covid outbreaks across the country. that is the outlook based on bloomberg segregated index -- bloomberg's aggregated index. general motors posted profits that were weaker than expected. gm maintains its guidance for the full year. that reflects robust demand for suvs and trucks and it signals optimism that gm can get what it needs. ubs has reported weaker then --

institutional investors withdrew funds and investment banking also trailed expectations. ubs plans to buy back 5 million shares in shares -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> first it will increase gas prices. second it will render a couple industries very inefficient and with that generating further inflation, making inflation stubborn which is the real danger. jonathan: the ubs ceo there. futures -4/10 on the s&p.

pain in europe, the euro-dollar -7/10 of 1%. 10 years since president draghi was in london and mentioned those few words. whatever it takes. tom: a few words and then a distinctive feature of the ecb, they would come out with confidence about 18 months view. you would see a headline with 2023 and say really? it has blown up hasn't it? jonathan: just staying max dovish for a long time. tom: i want to emphasize the data screen is extraordinary, watching a spinoff. sales adjustment -- as we go to what we are going to see this afternoon from microsoft in big tech. right now, we noticed ruble.

strongest currency in the world right? jonathan: year to date. tom: no question about it. but in the commodities space, it was a layup. cona hack was on here saying be careful. she has been dead on about a round-trip in wheat. is the bull market in commodities over? >> if you look at the price action, they are back to where they were before the ukraine invasion took place. in that regard, we have wiped out all the gains we saw in the last six months. i personally think it might be oversold from here. prices are -- we saw the grains. it is not going to be huge. there is still a lot of -- that

needs to come out of ukraine. a lot of weather is still with us. tom: fold it into hydrocarbons take an ed&f man crude call and fold that across commodities. kona: i think we are in a tug-of-war right now. we have the global macro, recessionary fears, demand destruction. on the other side we have immense supply risk whether it is opec getting close to capacity or outages in libya or the fact that russia at any time could cut even further and oil and gas supplies for all the demand destruction we are getting, we are losing from economic instability and

recession fears, we potentially have the oil disruptions and gas disruptions that could lead to substitutions coming into oil products. it is pretty well-balanced i would say. both arguments are very strong. when it comes to being below $100, i think it might be too cheap. right we are at -- where we are right now kind of balances it. we are kind of where we should be i guess. now the momentum has to take its course. if the markets think that is too much, if you look at how the hedge funds -- it feels like that big exit or is beginning to stabilize and reclaim a lot of their positioning. lisa: kona, there is a financial story of commodities in the real story of commodities which is being borne out right now in

europe, and i want to focus in on what you had been touching on, gas prices in the gas shortage, especially if russia continues limiting the supply of gas going through nord stream one. how much are you looking at prices that equalize around a certain level near where they are now? even though we are hearing from european union that they will cut back 15% of demand going into the winter, you are already hearing about carveouts and countries that are preparing to use a little bit more than that, especially if prices stabilize. kona: absolutely. gas shortages in the eu are ramping up to the desirable 90% level which is what they want to be by around november. we are on track for that but look what happens. we had an extraordinary heat wave in the eu. what if we have an extraordinarily harsh winter in the eu? that means even at 80% we are

not comfortable and there is always the risk of what will russia do to its supplies? that could lead to sudden outages. it is highly volatile and risky and i know the eu government is doing the right thing by trying to rationalize everything that can but it is not going to be easy. we cannot forecast what is going to happen on the weather. jonathan: i don't think anybody can forecast this. kona haque of ed&f man. you wake up this morning, you come to some kind of agreement to reduce gas use. how that plays out in practice over the next few months remains to be seen. at the same time, gazprom indicating capacity use of that nord stream one pipeline is going to go down from 40% to 20% and there are still many people out there who believe it could go down to zero coming into

winter. lisa: at a certain point it. . doesn't matter the fact that they are playing this game with europe. how much is this going to cause prices to rise anyway and how much does a 50% cut that they are talking about highlight the concern about the danger, more than the remedy which may not be the whole 15%? jonathan: you throw into a pot and you get a weaker euro. tom: i agree on euro. i watched it very carefully. yen as well. you really wonder in the next 48 hours, the tension into the fed meeting, tomorrow? jonathan: we are doing a special program that you will be a part of tomorrow afternoon. tom: really? jonathan: i wonder if this acknowledges some of the

weaknesses starting to emerge. that would be the problem for this federal reserve. this is always the issue with central banks. to some extent they have to lie. central bankers tell the truth all the time. tom: they have to lie to maintain control. lisa: lying is one thing. trying to get accurate forward guidance -- give accurate forward guidance at a time when financial conditions are loosening rather than tightening, that is a different story. how do they get those while not lying? tom: when jerome powell was in graduate school, he was launching animal house. remain calm. that is the mantra. have you seen animal house? jonathan: yields at four basis points. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the market is waiting to see clear signs of recession. >> we can argue about whether or not it is a recession but it is definitely a loss of momentum. flex we are concerned for the confluence of risk. >> the fed needs a trajectory on

inflation with d