>> the market is waiting to see clear signs of recession. >> we can argue about whether or not it is a recession but it is definitely a loss of momentum. flex we are concerned for the confluence of risk. >> the fed needs a trajectory on inflation with dynamics on

growth. >> financial markets will not be surprised by 75 basis points. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: live from new york city, good morning, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance," alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro at its all about earnings today. tom: coca-cola out with a headline i have never seen before, coca-cola with a 9% currency headwind. these are extraordinary time. jonathan: if in doubt, blame the dollar. tom: i mean, 4% is sort of the theme. i will tell you, it is so illuminating to see how each company is struggling with this post-pandemic economy. jonathan: struggling to execute, the right spot, the right time,

with the right inventory. walmart, struggling to do that. tom: you nailed it, you called it a product mix. i give them credit, they have been out front with warning people. i can't read like you can read, but comp sales, 9.7%. that's a lot of cheeseburgers. jonathan: you can't read like i can read? that is a lot of cheeseburgers. [laughter] tom: number two value meal? we can do that. jonathan: thank you, tom. it's a revenue story but it isn't. it's about what they are spent on, making it a margins tory. they can't anticipate how quickly this is going to change. we have seen it repeatedly from target to walmart. they are all failing to forecast how quickly this is moving. lisa: big-box stores often have a grocery component. that is where more of the dollars are going and that is a lower margin business where

these people were staying home and doing yoga and suddenly people are not buying as many clothes. they already bought the clothes to go back to work. they are dealing with a glut that they have to discount. it's a problem that is a persistent one. jonathan: execution company -- execution problem from the company or a problem from all of us? lisa: not all companies are suffering in the same way about the discretion that people are showing when it comes to gut -- gas and food is not going to other areas, that's thing we are seeing in a lot of different trick. jonathan: lisa's going to guide you through that in a moment but i will take you to the markets. down one half of 1%, looking forward to more earnings covers with tom keene. i cannot wait. yields down, three to four basis points. i can do the alphabet thing, but not the meta-thing. tom: it was always and forever

the american can company. jonathan: i don't know where to start in europe. lisa: i will say that we do meta-every morning but it really is about europe and energy ministers holding a meeting in brussels to discuss energy security planned to cut energy use, gas use by 15% through the winter. how they get member states to participate? gas prices are surging back to levels, highest levels since 2020. pico pandemic. how do we get them to reduce the use substantially. especially because you cannot predict the weather. and if you reduce the price, it's head spinning. it's an audibly difficult situation that europe is in. economic data today, the house price index of the month of may with consumer confidence data from the july consumer

confidence board. how much do we see a differential here from the university of michigan survey that we know the track. do we see deterioration here as people look at the higher inflation rates? microsoft and alphabet reporting after the bell. it's about advertising. it's about the consumer. it's also about the cloud, but john, what happens to the index if big tech disappoint. has it been priced in? that's the big question hanging over this week. jonathan: we've got a perfect guest for that, a quantitative strategist at evercore. julian, the big tech layers have fought back on higher intentions. do you expect that to show up in their guidance? julian: no doubt. when you think about the evolution of markets over the last couple of weeks we have gone from the pulling back of hiring to where corporate america is announcing layoffs.

we will see a lot more of that and that is really why bond yields are back near multi-month lows. jonathan: your morning goat is the most valuable one that i read. you go through the math. we don't need to deal with that right now. but it means that corporations are adjusting. given the feel of the microanalysis that you are acclaimed for, how will corporations adjust? julian: they will have no choice. you have got every single thing coming at you. the need to stock, the need to re-short because your supply chains are broken in the longer dependable but at the same time you have got the fact that the world is changing. economic volatility is so much higher now than it was the last 30 years. all of these factors are really very different.

what it ends up meaning is that at the stock level, valuations continue to ratchet lower, but again, corporate america has always found ways of squeezing profit and figuring out how to transform it well. we don't think it's different this time. lisa: julian, that's nice for companies that can actually do that. i can see john laughing at me. every stock analyst is becoming a rate analyst saying it is all about the fed. whether they torpedo the economy or not. as much as they can adjust, they can't do that in the face of volker. how much does the fate of the s&p depend entirely on how far the fed has to go versus these adjustments? julian: well at this point it really means a lot. we are at a crossroad. the average recession bear market loses 41%. the average non-recession bear

market, you could argue that we have already done that but the fact is, we have not seen any indication other than the fed is really on sin trading on the single mandate of the dual mandate, inflation. from our point of view you have already seen signs of it turning down along with the economy weakening and we wonder if in the reverse logic of the last years the fed might step back and say we have more ammunition to hike if we need to later knowing that adding rate next year is the single thing that causes potential inflation expectations to become the anchor. jonathan: when you sit around the table with ed hyman and he expects bad news, do you think that bad news is bad news but you will market? julian: again, that's what's really tricky about this current juncture. you don't see the fed to bad

news. because inflation does not allow them right now to react to bad news. we do think that in the next couple of months that dynamic change. lisa: a lot of people think that if the fed doesn't go far now it will lead to inflation expectations becoming da anchored. you just set the office it. that if the fed goes too far now and cuts rates, that causes inflation to become on anchored. how much pushback you get to that? where you get that idea? julian: it goes back to the 1970's and the burns blunder. you had inflation really raging. you know, structural inflation, arguably somewhat different this time and share burdens cut rates in the middle of that surge to fight a recession and that because literally another decade of inflation to be well anchored.

part of the dynamic and markets is that we have all been pavlovian trained to expect stocks to rally when the fed cuts rate. to the extent that we take that away, you are actually doing a service and allowing the fundamentals. tom: what happened to pavlov? he was chief market strategist at jp morgan? [laughter] just outstanding. jonathan: julian emanuel, thank you, of evercore. our conversation got derailed of the end, tom. tom: i can't say enough about the value of a manual, -- emmanuel. it's a crazy season, as mcdonald's just stated, with huge challenges ahead. but we have to be clear amid the gloom. very constructive stories around people that aren't involved with revenue from the middle class. jonathan: they speak to a bigger picture, though.

it's about how much more people have to spend on gas and. tom: absolutely. the unit count is up. jonathan: yes, but the margin mind isn't because of the product mix ultimately shifting. i just don't know why we are surprised by this. seemingly we are because the stock is down and i have asked that question about retailers were only. we are told a lot of times that this is christ and then the bad news comes down and it's not. it's just not. tom: always the way it is. failing at our job. jonathan: later without a bet, microsoft on deck. lisa: especially with the headwinds that microsoft talking about our lasting. to me the fact that they brought down their forecast revenue for 2023 tells you so much. it's not just for the rest of the year, they see it persisting. how much of this is a hangover of supply inventory versus persistent headwinds in where

they are getting their margins. jonathan: when julian threw some good news that you? what was that line? [laughter] lisa: i'm sure he's crying. he was brilliant. had such good comments. loved it. tom: let me tell you something. jonathan: futures are down 4/10 of 1%. from new york. ♪ leigh-ann: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with first word news. the european union agreed to reduce natural gas used by 15% through next winter coming at the prospect of a full cut off from russian supply growing increasingly likely at the eu meeting in brussels giving the green light to a proposal to voluntarily cut ask usage over the next few months and the british economy wasn't focused on that first head-to-head debate between the candidates

battling to replace boris johnson. that's the tax cuts might increase inflation and interest rates but the other said that plans would drive the economy into recession. urging the u.s. supreme court to confirm affirmative action and college admissions, university filing a brief and one of the most highly anticipated upcoming cases, arguing that affirmative action is necessary to ensure a student body with racial preferences around harvard and the university of north carolina. the united parcel service has reported second-quarter profits and revenues beating expectations, reaffirming their outlook for the full year. ups increasing prices and a focus on their most lucrative customers, squeezing out inefficiencies, even though package volumes fell.

shares of 3m our highest today, announcing plans to spinoff off the health care business and retain a 20% stake while they will remain focused on material signs that they have a profit outlook for the year. quick take, powered by more

>> we are going to see parts of the corporate sector with parts of the shadow bank system going back. you will see this system that's partly fragile. the trigger for financial distress is going to be recession and recession that is not mild or shallow but severe and retracted. jonathan: i will have a tom is having. tom: it was something, yesterday. as lisa said, going from one to the other, that's how we invented the show, that's what it is about. jonathan: a picture of the bond market for you, 10 year, the euro, with so much weakness. 8/10 of 1%. back to a one hand and i will just talk about it more later. tom: but i think that this is important, there is a weight to the euro but what we have not talked about enough is once

again the german yield upfront of the u.s. move, sorry. there is a compression here of developed country yield curve. jonathan: prolific at gas prices through the 24th. we don't know what the supply from russia will look like but we know that europeans will be trying to cut back on consumption with growth adjusting, coming lower. that's a weaker euro. tom: one thing that is particularly certain, they are younger, not in america. there's a president who if he ran in the second time would be in the vicinity of 82 and trump would be in the vicinity of 80, somewhere out there in a second term. joe mathieu understands. they are older, he is younger, looking at younger republican candidates right now. joe, something that we don't talk about enough, heat of august, a back story to the

midterms as well. how jockey around the former president? there we -- joe: they are waiting for starters here with a challenge on the polling data. you might see more potential candidates feeling bold, like ron desantis. is he really going to wait forever to hear from donald trump with an approval rating in the low 40's? that's where the former president stands as he arrives in washington today. speech and 3:00 -- at 3:00, big return. another guy am watching, mike pence. supposed to talk last night, didn't get in last night because of the severe weather. he will be speaking in washington at a separate. you know the trump act. we hear his once a week and spent. what is act going to do? -- what

is the pence act going to be? tom: you turned to me and said tom, you don't understand, the city is all about money. can the republican candidates raise money but a way for the former president? joe: yeah, that's a lot of cheeseburgers but yes, i guess you can. you can start to raise money, ron desantis certainly is. you see the folks kicking out the emails you announced your candidacy, that changes the rules. a lot of folks are pushing hopes to make it decision. he would only benefits i waiting. -- my waiting. $103 million in the political action committee. he announced it would be the same for the others. lisa: when we take a look at the economic issues facing the united states right now, people are looking at a broad-based messaging, and how the fed is

going to play a role in some of the partisan discussion given that right now the fed has a chance at torpedoing growth and causing unemployment to rise. will it become the whipping post or something that is a neutral player doing what needs to happen to curtail inflation? joe: in the center of the conversation already. they support what's going on. the white house simply hers to the fed and puts them in an awkward situation. doing everything they can to fight inflation. they want to know more about all -- that call around the independent fed and it depends on what party you are talking about and where we end up in the fall. the fed could look heroic if they pull off a soft landing and the tightening pulls back a little bit. aside with the midterms. -- it could coincide with the midterms.

jonathan: gas prices, still falling. every single day since the middle of june in the right direction for this administration. down enough. -- it may not be knocked down enough. lisa: this administration has pinned the message of bringing down gas prices as analysts have pointed out. there are extenuating circumstances that could cause gas prices to rise and are out of control. how much could this be a message that sticks with gas prices going lower? jonathan: the fed meeting starts tomorrow and we will have special coverage for you. great lineup, looking forward to catching up with mohamed el-erian. tom: that's a stellar group we are going to have on the meeting and of course the press conference, michael mckee will be there. in the heat of this earnings season can we note that mcdonald's has absolutely

cratered off the highs from the beginning of the year? they dumped 7%. the resiliency of the model, i was looking at walmart earlier with 3%, three cents on the dollar at walmart, even with the lineup on the income statement they only make six cents on the dollar. mcdonald's makes $.31 on the dollar in franchises. you think these companies aren't comparable? jonathan: i'm not trying to compare them. tom: no but a lot of people are. people bundle them in as consumer companies and selling cheeseburgers. a value meal. it's a profit machine compared to more walmart. -- walmart. jonathan: they have a profit mix around consumers and the pandemic where the cycle is moving fast. i would throw in there. it's in the same. facing the same challenge.

in the middle of august, i wonder if walmart has come out in the middle of august lisa:. how many times -- august. lisa: how do we get a sense of this is an idiosyncratic execution issue versus a broader based difficulty engaging consumer is being squeezed in a significant way? jonathan: i think it is very difficult and if the c-suite cannot forecast it, how do we expect the federal reserve to forecast where the economy is going. difficult. the future is down 4%. five tends to six tense of 1%. the euro is weaker. -- five tents to 6 -- 5/10 to 6/10 of 1%. 6/10 of 1%. the euro is

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jonathan: the latest rally is full of wishful thinking. we still need a forecast reset.

lisa is going to go through those numbers for you in just a moment. the nasdaq 100 down a half of 1% after the close a little bit later. those big tech earnings keep coming through. in the bond market, a little bit more curve inversion for you. yield down three basis points. someone between 20 and 25 basis points, maybe that gets a whole lot worse if we try to stop what is happening in germany. let's take a look at the euro. euro-dollar rolling over. negative eight tens of 1%. tom, where do you want to begin? the e.u. nation has to come to some kind of agreement. on the russian side of things, we don't know how much russian gas we are actually going to get. tom: overcome by events, that is

what the tape looks like to me. commodities particularly in currency with the depth of market. these are just barely getting going. we are trying to get out front, and the bellwether to me is against europe. jonathan: let's hope. one day strike. we are going to see a lot of this in europe this summer, aren't we? tom: striking is a huge deal. i believe ups held over here. jonathan: stuck in the airport for the better part of eight hours before and they sent me a message and said we hope you've

enjoyed your time in the airport. tom: the only one i know who has spent more time than you and me in an airport, combo. bramo. lisa: we can talking all morning about walmart. down almost 10% ahead of the open here after downgrading the forecast for earnings. the remainder of this year and next year, these margin pressures are set to continue. perhaps this is an execution issue and that people are buying food with the margins are smaller, but there also is a broader story you are seeing throughout the entire retail complex amazon reporting earnings on thursday, shares down 3.5%. how much are the same stories really exemplified in amazon's earnings that we see in walmart?

do we see them double down on trying to dredge the expansions? fewer packages than expected. shopify also down almost 5% after citigroup cut their price target for the shares. there is a big distinction between those that can raise prices and those that can't. those that can include coca-cola and mcdonald's. coca-cola shares up nearly 1% after reporting earnings here than expected. they have a pretty bleak outlook because of the health care unit, at least for now. i do wonder, some of the margin pressures, i wonder when that is going to come back into play. tom: there's no other way to put

it. i want to do one total return here. this is a good lead-in. in the last 10 years, mcdonald's is up 14% per year, where walmart underperforms by 600 basis points, up 8% per year. every stock is about the same and every sector is not the same. i'm going to go out on a limb and say sector analysis and sector choice in the next 12 months is absolutely critical. which sectors will win? >> it is a big change to the last cycle. i think most psychos went up together. i think you had a good return. i think we all know the market is incredibly bearish, especially industrials. you should consider new orders.

if you are asking about the next 12 months, one probably needs to start thinking about exposure, but clearly right now, that seems too early because we are in this very weird bearishness. we are still seeing a lot of negative surprises, so it is a bit too early. tom: i'm not going to mince words because there is nobody on global wall street watching the show. i look at the tenure track record and it is an outrage of shareholder representation. do and goldman sachs in london, do you skew to a u.s. company selection, or can you buy europe? >> listen, i think you said it already. europe had a tough last cycle, there were a lot of headwinds there. generally in a world of lower

inflation, europe has suffered. the problem now, you have shifted to a world of hired ration. sadly, a lot about higher inflation is because energy in europe is it really hard and you mentioned earlier, the gas issue is not gone in investors' minds and also for us. to me, it feels like for investors, they have to be very selective in europe. they have to look at business model that are not necessarily -- everything is interlinked. the focus on infrastructure as an area in europe. lisa: it sounds like you think the dollar is going to remain strong based on that outlook for your region. how does that factor into where we see earnings estimates, especially as we see the headwinds that the likes of coca-cola are putting out there in terms of the billions of dollars?

christian: don't forget, europe is not in a much better spot. it is the first big mist in the european earnings season since the covid crisis. one third of the company missed by a significant amount which is the last time it happened during the euro area crisis. that is why maybe it doesn't get as much press coverage. but the european earnings season is starting as well. lisa: given all of the concern out there, what do you do as a portfolio manager? do you hold a lot more cash and hope for some sort of aversion, or do you go whole hog into u.s. equities and say that they are the best inflation hedge out there?

christian: it is very vulnerable to rising inflation and the market pricing valuations, now you are going back to a bit more of the trend that we know well, which is recession risk and weaker growth. the market has shifted completely away from inflation concerns. i think then the bond market can help you, and it has already help you lots. we've upgraded to neutral kind of a month or so ago, but it was remarkable how quick that rally was. i think the market has shifted a lot to bad news again. central banks will pivot to get the data is so bad. now, we are getting quite vulnerable from two perspectives. first of all, the bonds are not sufficient anymore because the yields have declined so much now. the second issue is maybe the

central bank won't respond as quickly because inflation is quite high. to look at option overlays, to look at defensive positioning within assets now. jonathan: thank you. the final point that christian is making, we thought this summer we had shifted and ultimately what that meant, we thought we had capped because any easing of financial conditions would be considered an undesirable one. ultimately, bring down inflation. they have eased a lot, particularly high-yield credit spreads. 90 basis points or so tighter over the last few weeks. lisa: one of the biggest rallies and high-yield bonds for the month going back to the peak of 2020 when the fed was jumping in with the rescue program during the pandemic. how much does the fed's discussion after the meeting

tomorrow really hinge on trying to read tighten of those conditions, pushing back on how quickly they will reverse positioning going back to cutting? and if they don't, how big of a disruption could you see natalie bonds, but also in stocks as people retrace the fed's reaction function? jonathan: would you like the market's things? lisa: i think i know it. jonathan: he said with the piquant and then pressing lightly behind us, market volatility should also be behind us. he is still bullish. what do you make of that term? tom: i would say 44% of our audience's heads are spinning on radio and television. the gap here is so wide.

an upper range of a terminal of 5%. that is unimaginable. there is no other way to put it. jonathan: trying to get visibility on this economy, we will do that shortly. looking forward to the conversation. the futures down a third of 1%. heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word news, the european union is preparing for the possibility of a full cutoff of russian energy surprise. -- supplies. dwindling gas flows by russia. supplies to the nord stream pipeline are set to drop to around 20% of capacity.

now, former president donald trump returns to washington today for the first time since leaving office. he will make a speech to a think tank on an agenda for a possible second term and focus on public safety. the january 6 committee has been detailing his attempt to remain in power and his refusal to call off a violent mob of his own supporters. lawmakers are to vote on the american innovation and choice act before midterm elections. the measure would slow down out for that, google, apple, and facebook. semiconductor shortages -- maintain the full year which reflects the robust demand and signals optimism that can get

the chips it needs. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think that june 16 when we slow down to 3666 on a closing basis, we have seen commodity prices coming down and we have seen the slowing in the economy which i think will help to moderate inflation. jonathan: that was the great ed yardeni, futures on the s&p negative one third of 1%.

a lot of talk about walmart coming down, a pick up on that story in just a moment. a lot of talk about europe. euro-dollar negative, that is a weaker europe and some difficulties with russian gas once again. the nord stream one back online, running at 40% capacity and about to come down to 20%. europeans agree that they need to cut back on gas consumption. you put it altogether, you got weaker growth in europe. tom: no question about it, right now whether it is the middle class flat on their back or maybe some of the better numbers we are seeing this morning including the generous numbers of michigan. joining us now is the most interesting guy in autoloaders. why is that? all you need to know is paul jacobson was the cfo of the aviation business when the aviation business was flat on its back.

he was brought up the general motors a number of years ago and we are thrilled that paul jacobson can join us this morning. the auto business must be like a walk in the park. paul: thanks, really excited to be here with you all today. we certainly had our share of challenges. tom: my challenges the middle class of america can't afford a new car. you've got the hummer hev at $112,000 or whatever your driveway. the middle class can't afford a chevrolet. how do you make new cars affordable to the middle class? paul: well, we've got a lot of affordable products on the way and we are already producing the chevy bold, which is a great tv alternative at a lower price range. the chevy blazer right behind it which we have just debuted. we talked about the equinox at about $30,000.

the goal is really to provide electric vehicles across the entire customer portfolio and that is one thing that general motors has done very well. tom: i spoke to david welch and he says there is only one question -- what are you doing about supplies, the chemistry of batteries? not you, but the chemistry of batteries, the manufacturing of batteries. how do you pull battery development into the end of the year and into 2023 to sell more units? paul: well, we've and very thoughtful about our approach going back to the time of the battery platform which gave us the ability to make a diverse suite of vehicles whether it is the chevy blazer behind me or the origin across the board. they give us a lot of versatility. but one of the challenges that the market has been talking about a lot is how do we do that? i am thrilled to report that i've seen today we secured all of the battery raw materials needed to produce one million

vehicles in 2025. we are ready to go. as our air facilities in ohio which begin production in just a few weeks. we will be able to rapidly scale tv production. --ev production. lisa: every vehicle that is produced is computer now, evidently, because of the chips required to give them all of their features. you talk about the chip shortage persisting in reducing your potential output as a result how long do you see that persisting for? paul: this is something that we've been working through really since december of 2020, and we've been remarkably resilient in our ability to manage it. we know we are going to see production up 25%-30% over last year's levels. we seen a first half that is up year-over-year. that momentum will continue and grow in the second half.

they've done a really good job in the short term. longer-term, we are focusing on simplifying the semiconductor architecture inside the vehicles and going with much fewer chip families, that better enable us to partner deeper into the supply chain and more consistently in the long term. lisa: you also say you're going to reduce discretionary spending and women hiring to critical needs. we've been talking a lot about the labor market and when it is going to start to soften. from your perspective, what does it mean to limit hiring to critical needs? when is that turning into reduction to the overall soft cap? paul: we don't have any plans to lay off workers. we went through a fairly big restructuring back in 2018 in which the company did in amazing job of saving $4.5 billion annually in paving the way for the investments that we make today to produce evs. as ucs going into 2022, we

called out a lot of headwinds, over $5 billion of inflationary pressures year-over-year to make sure that we were moderating and being disciplinary. tom: one final question, the motion here is gm down from 47%. i want to focus on the miracle of the aviation business which is you ended up developing persistent revenue, more responsible revenue and more persistent free cash flow. can you do the same miracle in the american automotive business? it has been basically a walking train wreck for 10, 15, 20 years. can you bring the financial discipline to develop persistent free cash flow to general motors? paul: what i'm really excited about, the opportunity here at gm is it is an industry that is in transformation, not just a company. when you look at the capability of electric vehicles and what

they can bring to consumers, we are focused on the entire universe of revenue opportunities yada just the first sale of the vehicle. we just announced charging infrastructure to america's interstates, more than 2 thousand hwy chargers with a network that will provide great benefits for gm customers. that is the recipe for generating strong cash flow. tom: the problem i have is the car value. for those of you on radio, the blazer behind paul jacobson is a crimson color, much like the university of alabama. paul, bad form. as an auburn guy, you just can't have a crimson car behind you. thanks so much. paul: i tried to push for origin but we don't manufacture that color. tom: it is about football always if you are from alabama. jonathan: tom, you mentioned the stock, a great year last year.

tom: i keep very careful track of how wrong i am. shout out to citigroup for basically hitting the over the head several years ago. up until the beginning of this year, the call on gm has just been brilliant. and you wonder what they're going to do. is it a tech company or an auto company? jonathan: last year it was a tech company, just less adept this year. these things change frequently. i don't think this year you want it to be considered a tech company. tom: my question is has the middle-class been boxed out of the new car market? the answer is they have. jonathan: the euro weakness is a story we will pick up on in just a moment.

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