>> the reality is the economy is weakening. it is probably going to weaken further. >> we are still in this race between inflation and probably a mild recession. >> the federal reserve is unlikely to be timed to the equity market. if we see weakness in the labor market, how will the fed communication evolve? announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: good morning, good morning. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures down three quarters of 1% on the s&p. the main event is in taiwan.

tom: it is. we will get to the markets. in my right, mike is with us later? jonathan: in a few hours time. tom: right now it is about nancy pelosi and the history being made in taiwan. absolutely stunning. i am not sure that the chinese quite see it that way this morning. tom: i would say not. there is a lot of reading to be had about what is different, but what it does come down to is the ability to make a mistake. when i talked to military experts, something like bloomberg in that regard. jonathan: we make a ton of mistakes on a daily basis.

a visit we all anticipate in the next couple of hours. lisa: and everyone is trying to figure out what the response could potentially be. this is risk off, a pretty significant market ramification that leaves you with a 10 year yield going into that to 5% and projecting further. how much are people perhaps looking past some of the longer-term implications of the share between china and the u.s.? a lot of people are looking at how the fed response to that. jonathan: we got the headline risk hovering over this market. you've also got the data which, let's face it, that is what we've been training on over the last week. lisa: this new potential risk, usually risk off or this idea that there could be some geopolitical tension would lead to an easing of fed policy. this time, how much could it exacerbate inflationary tensions and some of the inputs that are causing some of the constraints

and at the same time, the data isn't rolling over quickly enough to justify the dovish visited many people are pricing in. >> down three quarters of 1% on the s&p. as lisa pointed out, we are down three basis points on the 10 year. bear in mind that in the middle of june, we were close to 3.50, a monster turnaround on a 10 year. we are negative one quarter of 1%. the dollar-yen getting back to 1.30. as five days of strength. tom: this talk about the real change here. this is some of the nuance going on as people -- not recalibrate, but may be reset off of all the caution that is out there. he has euro-dollar, still those, but he says now because of the u.s. upset, switch over to euro-yen, looking for stronger yen, weaker euro.

jonathan: the story clear, do it against the japanese yen. lisa: it is fascinating how quickly things are changing. you were saying we do get dated today and i am actually really trained on this. the job openings data, we saw it peak a couple of months ago. 11 million job openings out there, which exceeds the number of potential available workers. how much does that come down? what does that mean about how tight this labor market is and how does that factor into a fed -- we can get into what jay powell will actually say, but the market cannot interpret a strong labor market as anything other than moving ahead with a strengthening and tightening policy. today, nancy pelosi is expected to arrive in taiwan. what is the chinese response?

she's the first to visit this territory in 25 years a longer-term breach of the relationship between china and the u.s.. how much do they talk about the easing and financial conditions of pushback against that at a time when you are getting back to zero real yield on the 10 year? remember, that real yield getting positive in risk assets. jonathan: there is a lot to talk about, and we will do that through the program. looking ahead to that data, potentially in the next couple of hours, pelosi landing in taiwan, the highest-ranking u.s. official to land there in some 25 years. i believe it was 1997, newt gingrich. that is how far back you got to go. tom: really interesting to see those domestic politics, the

revolution that gingrich led. here is the arch-democrat of baltimore and san francisco affecting a policy which i would suggest is usually quiet, they dress republican support. jonathan: during that exchange last week, that congress is an independent branch of government and the speaker makes her own decisions. this is what we heard from the chinese foreign ministry earlier today. third-highest ranking figure in the u.s. government makes a provocative visit to the taiwan region, is certainly not unofficial behavior. we are going to guide you through the headlines as they come in for the next couple of hours. we are going to guide you through the market, too. going through your calls, and there it was, bearish on the chinese currency. walk me through as to why. >> this is the only company --

and the stimulus in these conditions tends to be a weaker currency. the yen effect more broadly is under pressure. this point of view, we also expect more weakness more broadly. jonathan: some highly speculative conversations taking place right now and have china might respond. we set up for this program that you have to remain focused dealing with that economy. can you tell us, how bad are things right now in the chinese economy? >> numbers are definitely way

below what we've seen. even when the rest of the world was recovering opening up, the chinese economy was weakening. there are also problems in the state sector where investment has been key in the past, and trade tensions in the west for an economy like china that we economic outlook. but i think the most important is that until china has a way out, it is hard to become a force for economic growth. lisa: if there is escalating issue between the u.s. and china, escalating tensions after this visit to taiwan by nancy pelosi, how long can the dollar remain the haven currency if it

is also the epicenter of this potential of ratcheting up in tensions? >> definitely it will see risk off because this kind of geopolitical risk. but the market also believes that this is less caucus -- less hawkish, more dovish. with the market expecting it dovish deal by the fed, the fed is focusing on inflation. inflation is still rising. the labor market is still very strong. we need the u.s. economy to weaken and we need inflation to be well on its way down.

market pricing caps by the fed next year make absolutely no sense. jonathan: i'm going to add your name to the long list of names i've got that completely disagree with what happened last week. you've got some risk aversion accompanied with lower yields, not higher yields. that is a fixed -- that is a big change. that is a major change from five days ago. tom: is a five-day rally, but i would look at that yield space. to wake up this morning after the three hours sleep and noticing that the 10 year real yield almost went to zero and negative, it got the .02. a lot of little things going on.

tom: precisely right. jonathan: what is it now, four or five basis points? lisa: it is just about positive. the trajectory of how quickly it has collapsed, it is just dramatic. the reason why this yield curve is interesting is because it is the one that the fed has pointed to to say don't look at the spread. it is the most inverted since 2000, but we are really looking at the three-month month 10-year. so they can't ignore that anymore because inflation pressures are still there. tom: i just did what is called a fitted standard deviation study, and we have gone from plus 3.6 standard deviations on june 13 to negative two point -- whatever. it is a swing in the 10 year yield. jonathan: it is too early for that kind of stuff, tom.

tom: is never too early. the national security spokesperson said this yesterday. put simply, there is no reason for beijing to turn a potential -- into a crisis conflict. let's have a conversation up next. this equity market, ripper and rally over the last few weeks. this morning, turning negative. good morning. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi is expected to land in taiwan in a few hours, defying chinese threats of military action. she would be the first ranking american politician to visit there in 25 years. china has vowed unspecified military response to a pelosi

visit. -- killed one of the leaders of the 9/11 attacks. according to officials, the attack had been planned for weeks. the u.s. is sending ukraine another $550 million. it includes more ammunition for an advanced rocket system that was sent earlier as well as 75,000 shells. and in the u.k., bureaucracy and inefficiency. issue becomes prime minister, she says she can say potentially billions of pounds per year by slashing holiday allowances.

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>> a potential visit by the speaker of the house as sums of the pretexts to escalate tensions higher than they already are. in recent days and weeks, it is

the chinese side that has used their rhetoric, the ones that are escalating the tensions. jonathan: john kirby, the national security council spokesperson. good morning with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. it looks a little something like this, futures down nearly 1%. the nasdaq, down by more than 1%. this is just such a massive turnaround from where we were in june when we were pushing 3.50 on the 10 year, much lower since then. 92.70 on wti. tom: almost six standard deviations on the 10 year yield. i think the phrase is dry norma's. jonathan: joy norma's. -- ginormous.

tom: we will talk about the apple transaction yesterday, that was ginormous as well. joe mathieu, david sachs does a phenomenal summary as we stagger with china and taiwan over 30 years. and he says there has been a rhetorical shift in washington starting with president trump. it is not a servitude, but he looks at it with pompeo and trump. his biden and speaker pelosi simply following on from the work that trump and pompeo laid? >> they probably don't like that wording but it is essentially the reality. this is largely the same relationship here. what deliberate language coming from the white house yesterday. a lot different than what we heard from joe biden two weeks ago.

that caller opens with those remarks. the president said the military doesn't think it is a good idea right now. if he hadn't said that, this would be a very good conversation. everyone is looking back to 1997 and newt gingrich. 25 years since a speaker about house touched down in taiwan. but beijing is looking at '91 when the beijing police chased nancy pelosi and some other lawmakers out of tiananmen square when she unfurled a pro-democracy banner. there are questions about whether she will make a statement like this or if this is going to be something where we see photographs hours after the visit. tom: completely unfair, but it is unfair tuesday, so let's go. president xi has said he is looking for a great rejuvenation by 2049. that is something that was really honed at the council. do we have a plan out 2049? >> with regard to china?

i don't know if that is true. we don't even know what we are going to do in the tariffs -- with iteris for china next week. this is such a fast evolving relationship that i'm not sure the white house would have a direct answer on that. there's a lot of planning that goes behind any geopolitical matter, certainly the second largest economy in the world. but to visualize where we are going to be then, i am not sure if there is an answer. lisa: late july, joe biden said this military thinks it is not a good idea for nancy pelosi to go to taiwan and that really is the reason why we are all talking about this. how much is it joe biden's reluctance to sign off on this publicly and how much is it a rhetoric change from china hardening stance? the build up air force and the potential air raids they have been conducting in the region. how much is that going to change? >> it is hard to tell. we had a lot of fire drills two nights ago and it is a question of what exactly china is going

to do. will there actually be a concerted response? they seem to be trying to convince the white house to talk her out of it. this would be a very different story this morning. it seems clear that she has really no opportunity but to go through with the trip. is this the confrontation now, or will there be something even days later? if john kirby talked about the possibility of a missile test, maybe there is a large-scale incursion upon taiwan airspace or at least, getting closer to flying over the island. all of those would be very bold moves if we solve them in the next couple of days. we have to remember, joe biden says we can't tell nancy pelosi what to do. we are going to be figuring this out just like everybody else, but she is flying in air force plane and will likely have escorts from the pentagon, general milley who said they will get her in and out safely,

no matter what. lisa: this particular president has made a real big point in trying to coalesces allies around some sort of center, to reunify nato. how much support as the united states have from its allies in this move of nancy pelosi that perhaps has not been endorsed, but certainly has been supported by the nation. >> and of course, the region is a greater question here. if we are on the cost of creating a nato for southeast asia, this is what is going to prompt it. i asked mark esper yesterday if this would be tantamount to an article five violation for nato if china, in fact, did going to taiwan, and it is not at that level yet, but it is getting close. jonathan: we will catch up in the next hour on the important events said to take place in the next couple of hours. the white house as being pretty consistent about this. they will say we don't support

taiwan independence but they do not say they oppose it. and they are not coming out as saying they support speaker pelosi's trip but they are also not saying we oppose it. a pretty consistent start on a range of issues. tom: it shifted a couple years ago. this is stuff that was unspoken for years and years and it shifted certainly with the catalyst president trump and the secretary of state pompeo, and it is only in a biden manner, so here we are, and what we've got is one aircraft carrier off taiwan somewhere, i believe the philippines. jonathan: i think it's a little bit too simplistic to blame the previous administration. tom: absolutely. jonathan: back in spring, we heard some complaints, but nothing like this. tom: i would say in the last four or five years -- and again,

i mentioned the economy where they are mustering the third revolution, there is a third revolution in china and that brings in the change in rhetoric that we saw from mr. trump. jonathan: there are problems behind the weakness in the economy, the instability, the potential social unrest around the problems. lisa: and how much was delayed by the pandemic? it is not just a change in rhetoric but a buildup in military activity by china in taiwan. jonathan: for new york city, this is bloomberg.

jonathan: fading recession risk, that is the take from goldman sachs this morning. you are looking for recession risk, look for the data. later, job openings in america could come down and maybe that's what the fed wants to see. we discuss job openings in america along with fed speak. the nasdaq down by 1.4%. hanging over this market, headline risk in taiwan.

a little bit of weakness, risk-off, risk aversion. yields lower on the 10-year. think about where we've been. close to 250 in june, then all the way back to 25374. the spread between twos and tens is inverted. inverted by most since the early 2000's. it has been a long time since we've seen this level. lisa: and only getting more inverted. saying this does not historically track. it is deepening and the inversion before a sustained rally that is causing jitters. not enough in the market. tom: this is -- jonathan: this is five dates of eels declining and five days of japanese yen strength. give some life to the n-strength story. it is working in the way it hasn't worked all year. we come down from the middle of july to 13087 right now.

still does not like the euro, just think may be playing the yen instead. euro, 1.3395. tom: this is interest-rate rate dynamics and the central-bank catching up with chairman powell and chairman powell catching up with himself. what we are talking about is a november rate move. the interest rate dynamics is what is driving the change right now. jonathan: we have a long list of people pushing back against the dovish interpretation of chairman powell last week. tom: the earnings hallmark of the day, caterpillar open with a very nice beat. caterpillar cites favorable price realization and higher sales volume. that is a perfect entree to the chief investment strategist from charles schwab who does follow earnings. i am fascinated by what i am

observing, which is the mac roastery, the fed story, the big picture -- the macro story, the fed story, the big picture story. revenues and earnings, do they matter anymore? >> they do. us included thought that we might see a little more weakness start to creep in. you have seen it more in the outlooks in the forward-looking commentary on the revenue side and the profit margin side, but it hasn't manifested itself in terms of things like the beat rate and deterioration in earnings for the second quarter. i still think that is a second half of the year story given commentary. if you look at forward profit margin estimates, even though they aren't as robust as earnings estimates, those has

rolled over. i think he gets pushed later in the year, the deterioration i think is coming. tom: are they adjusting like we are all adjusting to the day-to-day macro analysis we are doing? liz ann: it depends on if you are on the services side of the economy, the good side, or are you a direct play into the stay-at-home environment? i think it's not a stretch to say that that is a bubble that is in the process of bursting now. i think what is unique about this environment is that often we talk about the consumer side of the economy, the investment side of the economy as the relevant side. now it is the good side versus the service side. even within goods there is the pandemic beneficiary versus other areas. i think anything tied to housing will be increasingly important to watch given the weakness in housing and the feeder into the economy. lisa: the pushback is saying

that you are starting to see inflation cool off and there are a lot of places where it is on the decline, specifically in the energy sector, but also on the margins, housing prices, and even rent. what is your pushback to the idea that that will give enough of a reason to the federal for this dovish have it that a lot of people are buying into? liz ann: i don't have any pushback on the leading indicators of inflation, to your point. you have seen it in supplier deliveries, crisis pay. my put out a chart today on the number of commodities moving up in price versus down in price and that is converging in a way that suggests an improving inflation environment. i think what could be missed, and i emphasize maybe because i'm not in the heads of the fed, but given their emphasis on wanting to see a series of lower readings on inflation, i think they learned some of the lessons of the fits and starts that preceded when voelker really had to get aggressive.

i think they want to be really cautious about pivoting too soon. i do still think there will probably be a fairly narrow window between the final rate hike, whenever that is, in the first rate cut, but it may not be as eminent as what this rally was somewhat on the basis of. lisa: how much conviction do you have? are you actively leaning against the rally we've seen so far in equities, or just taking a pause and waiting and seeing? liz ann: i think what we have been telling our investors is that the rally we've seen down the quality spectrum, that is probably a component of the rally you want to fade. there is some improving, you have anemic stocks playing at new highs, but you do have a new breath, not the new brett environment you would like to

see. i think is a bifurcation. maybe you can breathe into this on the quality end of the spectrum, but i would lean out of it down the quality spectrum. i don't think this is an environment where the junk stocks will move higher. tom: i don't want to get you in trouble, but let's do it. why not? are you suggesting that a vanilla index fund is not the way to go, a proxy for the standard in force 500, a proxy for the dow jones industrial average, and you need to get more sector specific towards service, towards quality? liz ann: we have always said that a mix of passive and active makes sense, and also it depends on you as an investor, what your goals are. however, for those who are more stock-picking oriented and want an active approach, we have been leaning away from sector-based decisions and leaning more into factor-based decisions. i think investing based on

characteristics, not putting blinders on in terms of where you look for those characteristics, i think that that has been the way to go it will continue to be the way to go. you can look at a quality wraparound factor like high return on equities, strong balance sheet, positive earnings revisions, and i think that is the way to approach investing as an active investor versus trying to make a sector call or two. tom: give me a factor that matters. quality matters, but is the factor simply an ability to hold margins? liz ann: like i said, it is the traditional quality factors like cash flow yields, terms of strong balance sheet, high cash on the balance sheet, low debt on the balance sheet. you get a hybrid growth value factor in things like positive earnings revisions because if they are moving up that means that the forward pe is moving down. lower volatility, i think that those be the types of factors that have been more consistent than what you are seeing at the

center level. i think, at least in the near term, that will continue. lisa: i would love your response to what is going on with taiwan, the tension between china and the u.s., the knee-jerk response from markets has been risk off, but very much leaning into longer-term treasuries. how much do you believe in that? how much would you see the 10-year going to 2% the way the bank of america does in the next six to 12 months? liz ann: you know my colleague in frank kathy jones so i won't step into her world and make any forecast of where the 10 year is going, but we have been forecasting moving out the duration spectrum. certainly when we were a percent or so higher in the 10-year yield. i think that is partly and play with the guards to taiwan. i think that you had a guest on pre-surveillance talking about the potential economic retaliation against maybe tech companies in california. that is not something that we

will know imminently, but that is another thing to keep an eye on. it is not just does china do something militarily, but do they try to do something economically? jonathan: it is good to catch up. tom: did she say that she watched pre-surveillance? i thought she started her morning with us. jonathan: she must wake up very early to watch pre-surveillance. that is a good thing. here are some of the numbers, revenue second quarter 2022, 14 point two 7 billion u.s. period period up from the previous last year. the second quarter was $12.889 billion. we have seen this so many times and earnings reports this quarter. the increase due to faithful price realization, partially offset by unfavorable currency impacts primarily related to the euro, the australian dollar come and the japanese yen. tom: i say 4% is the going

number. caterpillar with a drawdown of 20% back to the middle of last year. 4% seems to be the going rate. i believe i noticed apple computer, my brain says six cents on the dollar. it is a real issue. what i would suggest is like fedex, one of those global and domestic monitors of our continued ability to make profit. jonathan: and delivering growth. lisa: how much is that growth going to continue to be centered in the united states? how much is this potential fx headwind an issue with the strength of the dollar or the weakness of the economies and other places relative to the u.s.? you won't get the same activity perhaps out of europe in terms of the magnitude you would in the u.s. jonathan: do you remember the talk of a reopening and synchronized global growth story and now it feels like a synchronize downturn very quickly? on the nasdaq we are down 1.4%.

from new york city, more to come on speaker pelosi's potential visit to taiwan. ♪ >> threats by china don't seem to be deterring house speaker nancy pelosi. she is expected to become the highest ranking u.s. official and 25 years to visit taiwan. china has vowed an unspecified military response. the u.s. calls him a long time terrorist leader who helped to plan the 9/11 attacks. president biden says that the leader of al qaeda has been killed in afghanistan by a u.s. drone strike. in a statement at the white house the president said "justice has been delivered. president -- republicans plan to

use a rule against the climate deal to whittle down the billion dollar bill to limit the ability to pass legislation with a simple majority. merkley is its profit forecast the second time this year. discretion on trade routes have boosted rates creating an exceptional market. about 1/6 of the world's container trade. backed by the bill and melinda gates foundation, $50 billion and backing for a proposal that would help african nations reenter capital markets and protect against future defaults. it was launched last month. global news 24 hours a day on the bloomberg quicktake power by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

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pres. biden: since the united states deliver justice to bin laden ayman al-zawahiri has been the leader of al qaeda. now, justice has been delivered and this terrorist is no more. if you are a threat to our people, the united states will find you and take you out. jonathan: in an address to the nation. good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. the focus on taiwan and the potential visit from nancy pelosi. the focus of this market lower on the s&p and nasdaq 100. the s&p lower by three quarters of 1% on the nasdaq 100 down by 1.4 percentage points. the wall street journal reported

that this could happen as soon as this morning, and it's happening this morning. $39 per share in cash, tom. tom: inequities exposure, we use that option. helane becker and their retail is very strong. jonathan: they state is about expanding some of the abilities with this particular acquisition. tom: now we get lucky. julie norman is scheduled to be with us at the university college london center of u.s. politics. in this world she is absolutely definitive on al qaeda. i will ask her a few questions on the news of al qaeda and then we will move on to the issue of the moment. professor norman, thank you for joining us. what happens to al qaeda after the death 10 years ago plus of bin laden and now this latest drone murder?

>> the strike on ayman al-zawahiri concluded the chapter on 9/11 and the masterminds behind that. in terms of al qaeda itself ayman al-zawahiri has been more of a figurehead over the last two years. al qaeda has been strongest mostly in its affiliate groups that operate more at the local level and they have lost a lot of ground to the islamic state and other groups that have filled the gap. we will see probably another high-ranking al qaeda official step into the leadership role, but as an organization it has significantly decreased in terms of its impact in the region, especially at the central point. tom: the news flow is extraordinary, one more question. is al qaeda something of a certain country, pakistan, afghanistan, etc., etc., or a global organization we should fear? >> al qaeda has usually fashioned itself as more of a network based as more of an

international cognitive group, but i wouldn't say that it's one we should harbor fear around. obviously there's always a threat and you want to be careful, but the international kind of terrorism that had our attention for so long has seen more locally-based actions that tend to be locating more within countries, especially in the middle east and northern africa, rather than targeting, say, the united states. certainly a severe threat for those in those areas, but not an international threat for those in north america. lisa: the threat stemming from the escalating conflict from china and the u.s. is different because it's not just military, it is very much an economic. what are you watching in terms of the chinese response to nancy pelosi's expected visit to taiwan? how do you gauge what a true escalation is and how they intend to see this conflict play out? >> it is a good question, because it is not clear how

china will respond. there has been a lot of rhetoric . there are a lot of different options short of a full-out head-to-head conflict at this point. more likely a show of force, probably militarily, but also economically and politically. those will immediately see an increase in military activities and exercises around taiwan. today chinese planes are against the median line, where the airspace splits. likely to see more missile launches close to taiwan. those are probably what you will see in terms of military response. there could also be blockading the strait of taiwan saying that it is not an international waterway, perhaps laying claim to offshore islands. also more ongoing in the weeks and months to come, increasing pressure on taiwan through cyberattacks, political and economic pressure, and we will see that in terms of the u.s. as

well. probably some fallout in diplomatic relations which had remain fairly strong until this point. lisa: wall street has tried to play out with the economic ramifications will be, not tomorrow, a week, a month, but in six weeks, how is this a factor to the world? >> it will have an impact whatever plays out in these next couple of days. what's clear is that taiwan and the increasing tensions between china and the u.s. around it will be a major issue. probably for months to come. that will affect markets and the reality on the ground there. the impact is yet to be seen, but i see this as watershed, shifting that will become a major issue that we will pay attention to no matter what happens this week. jonathan: an important event taking place possibly later this

month. julie norman. speaker pelosi is expected to land in taiwan in two hours and 30 minutes. lisa: and stay there for the night. this is something where she is flying in on a u.s. military plane. this is perhaps not endorsed by the administration, but certainly with the support of the nation. i'm looking to the economic play out. yes, there is the question if there are missiles launched. no one thinks this will escalate into a real military conflict, but the u.s. economy and china and china's precarious position economically raise the specter of the cost and how this could evolve. jonathan: how many times have we discussed the potential of removing tariffs on chinese goods? we were awaiting for a decision from this president, and now --

tom: i agree with lee said that the surprise could be very surgical chinese reactions to the manufacturing process and linkages across the pacific. i think that that is a sleeper no one is talking about. jonathan: i find it highly speculative at the moment. tom: everything we are dealing with, 110 miles between china and taiwan, is massively speculative. i will say, and this is from the council of foreign relations, it is usual that the government officials will go to taiwan on military aircraft. that has been widely documented over 30 to 40 years. jonathan: the fed, work out what they will do next month. tom: we need forward guidance on taiwan. [laughter] lisa: a dot plot. tom: her book on president xi, it is a great little book to read. jonathan: futures down .8%. you know the story. the headline risk on the horizon potentially. on the nasdaq -1.4 percentage

points with the yields coming down to 2.5499. the less constructive view comes this morning from goldman. the more constructive you in 24 hours number that comes from jp morgan. we will see what credit suisse thinks about this equity market coming up shortly on this program with tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jonathan ferro. heard on radio, seen on tv in beautiful new york city. this is bloomberg. ♪ if you wake up thinking about the market and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ]

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>> the reality is the economy is weakening. it will probably weaken further. >> a race between inflation and probably a recession. >> the federal reserve is unlikely to be kind to the equity market. >> if we see weakness in the labor market how will the fed's communication evolve? >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: jobs tuesday. does that work? it h