>> the reality is the economy is weakening. it will probably weaken further. >> a race between inflation and probably a recession. >> the federal reserve is unlikely to be kind to the equity market. >> if we see weakness in the labor market how will the fed's communication evolve? >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: jobs tuesday. does that work? it has a ring to it.

tom: it jolted me out of my sleep from numbness monday. jonathan: alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, jonathan ferro. will she, won't she? she will reportedly go to taiwan, talking about speaker pelosi. tom: international relations are front and center today. i would say that the ante is up. listeners on global wall street, honing in on 10:00 a.m. wall street time. i agree that this is front and center for the global economy. jonathan: the unknown, how will china respond? when she was set to go back in the spring the rhetoric was a little different than the rhetoric we are experiencing now. tom: the answer is that we don't have a clue, it is original thinking. it will be interesting to see

some look back, look forward. jonathan: it is not just your politics. we have jobs opening data later on top of all of the fed's becoming through this morning and this week. lisa: so much of the market moves has been that there has been a rollover in inflation. the labor market will start deteriorating and give the fed or reason to pull back. do we see that in job openings that depleted 11 million? how much do they come down, how quickly, and how much does that give the fed confidence ahead of jobs friday that there's a reason to pause, and this wrapping in the taiwan issue and china and the u.s.. how much structural inflation is getting embedded in the global economy because of some of these geopolitical conflicts? jonathan: in the united states manufacturing came in and prices really came down. when you look at jobs opening

you would argue that's the objective of the fed. i asked them if that was the objective of the fed to see that kind of action in those sub readings. lisa: is the fed tracking oil prices? is that with this comes down to? if you look at the underlying data it shows a lot of this had to do with oil prices coming off of the high. at what point is fed policy trying to target oil prices and establish which is the stickier aspect of inflation that they need to address? jonathan: following a headline, that seems to shift from meeting to meeting and crisis to crisis. futures down .6% on the s&p. the nasdaq down .6% as well. we recovered a little in the last five to 10 minutes. what a turnaround from a month or so ago from close to 3.50. lisa: bank of america going to

2% because of the inflationary pressure and the belief that the fed will continue to raise rates and curtail longer-term growth. to get a sense on that, at 10:00 a.m. we get that data of jobs openings. how much will it give people the sense that there is a loss and momentum in the labor market, a softening, perhaps a little lack of pricing power for employees at a time when the employee cost index came in about where it was expected and is rising at a relatively rapid pace historically. house speaker nancy pelosi is expected to be the first house speaker to visit taiwan in 25 years. how much does this ratchet up tensions in a way that doesn't deal with the military approach of china and the u.s.? really, the economic one. expect a lot of reports trying to understand what a reshaping of supply chains looks like. we've seen this all year.

companies have been re-shoring being rewarded. how much will that continue to be a trend? there's loads of fed speak trying to push back against the dovish privet many are baking into the market. we hear from cleveland and st. louis's fed presidents. at one point they were pretty positive. they are now back down nearly 20. easing of financial conditions at a time when the fed is hoping that a tighter financial backdrop will lead to a decline in inflation. jonathan: that will get inflation down. that will do it. lisa: i don't think a lot of people like that. jonathan: premature is the word that i've heard again and again, and you hear it from credit suisse too. mandy, let's start with how do you play a peak in real yields?

>> i get this question a lot. the most traditional way that people look at it is go along tech or long gold.those two have historically had the most inverse relationship with real yields. in my view i think that going long gold is a better player for a peak in real yields rather than tech. the real yields going down either because of the dovish fed or because of the rising recession risk, right? for tech, if it is rising recession risk that doesn't bode well. for us, looking in gold and you have seen in the derivative market more of an upside in gld options. tom: on twitter the dallas trim inflation statistics, the first derivative of this over one month is stunning. 3.0, 3.1, and then an explosion

from 5.2 two hi norma 6.9. -- two join or miss 6.9. -- gianormous 6.9. mandy: you can play it through bond etf's, so looking at we have been recommending people look at upside plays in longer data bonds. the view here is that the fed will actually remain aggressive and try to curb inflation and as a result increase recession risks. that means that the backend of the yield curve goes down. that is more of a function of inflation and growth. you can look at it through hybrid options or equity options. their different ways that you can play it, but in my view the markets are wrong that the fed will pay that. i don't think that inflation will come in that quickly. powell has said that he needs clear and convincing evidence that inflation is falling down to the 2% target. i don't think that we will get

that soon. lisa: how much conviction has this rally had behind it from a derivatives perspective? how much have people closed out their bearish bets on the u.s. economy and stock market in particular as the market rallied the most since september 2020. mandy: what bearish? one of the defining characteristics of we have seen little hedging in the derivatives market contributing to the relatively lower levels in the vix and all of the measures that we track in options. part of that is because we've seen already very significant deleveraging and de-risking in terms of people selling out of stocks and going into cash. over the past week we've seen some pickup of buying, but certainly not significant enough. i don't think that this will be a high conviction rally, if anything more of a bear market rally. tom: when you face the headline

risk that we face today and the event that could take place, speaker pelosi landing in taiwan and the unknown to how the chinese will respond, what do you say to clients when they call you about how they should manage the situation? mandy: on top of china, there is clearly a lot of headline risk in the near term, but the figure risk and what i've been emphasizing and the outlook for china and the global economy is china zero covid policy and that will have a bigger economic impact and a bigger market impact than whatever happens in the next 24 hours on the geopolitical front. the key is if you talk to investors most people still expect china to pivot from the zero covid policy because of the economic cost. in my view, if you listen to the top chinese leadership, they are very ideologically committed to zero covid. i don't think a politically sensitive year, like this one for china, they will abandon zero covid anytime soon.

that will mean a bigger shock for global growth, a bigger demand shock for commodity. that is one of the reasons why we are there shone commodities as of late. jonathan: thank you as always. from credit suisse in new york, i think the final point is such a good point. you can try to navigate the headline risk, but it's almost impossible. this event and response has the potential to be highly significant and also the potential to pass you by. we are already seeing weakness in the chinese economy. it's easy to identify. we know covid zero is something they are committed to and they could be through the year, making things problematic for that economy. lisa: and problematic with how you deal with it as an investor because you see oil companies reporting record earnings and paying investors back at a time when you see the two deterioration of demand from china come that could be the peak in what we see in commodity

demand. how do you play this at a time when that had been the hedge against inflation, and suddenly it is a little more in question? jonathan: this sounds bearish. to balance this out we go to one man. he says, earnings on the fed we see a reset of investor expectations, risk markets rallying despite disappointing data releases. indicating bad news anticipated/priced in. tom: i thought that stuart keiser was brilliant yesterday. they are looking at earnings, they are looking at the consistency of earnings, the free cash flow statistic was joe weisenthal as he underscored was an act of god. and separately, the big survives. delta killing it. jetblue, not good. jonathan: we will get to the less constructive you in the next -- constructive view in the

next hour at 8:00 eastern. right about 50 minutes on tv and radio. the futures down .7% on the s&p and we will catch up with the team in d.c. next. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date, nancy pelosi is expected to land in taiwan in a few hours, defying chinese threats of military action. the trip will make her highest ranking american politician to visit in 20 years. china has vowed an unspecified military response. president biden says that a u.s. drone strike in afghanistan killed one of the planners of the 9/11 attack. ayman al-zawahiri was the leader of al qaeda. the drone attack had been planned for weeks. ayman al-zawahiri was in a house in kabul and was said to be killed when he stood on a

balcony. a state of emergency in response to the monkeypox outbreak. california joined new york and illinois in announcing the emergency. the goal is to bolster vaccination and stem the rise of infections. roughly 6000 monkeypox infections in the u.s. in the u.k. bowing to cut waste bureaucracy and inefficiency in the civil service if she becomes prime minister. she is the front runner in the race to replace boris johnson. she says she can save billions of pounds a year by slashing pay scales and holiday allowances. share buybacks the fastest pace yet. the london-based energy company posted its highest income since 2008, high crude and natural gas prices. bp's high margins delivered performance.

global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what will happen with speaker pelosi strip is that she has raised high expectations in taiwan and high anxieties in china. i believe that how we deal with

taiwan is a very bright red line as far as the chinese are concerned. i think they will find a way to respond in their own fashion that will inflict some harm upon us. jonathan: that was the former secretary of defense, the event speaker pelosi landing in taiwan potentially in two hours time -- make that three hours time. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i am jonathan ferro. the nasdaq down. you can tell that it is defensive out there. i keep hammering this one home. this turnaround in yields has been a monster move on the 10-year from the middle of june all the way down to 256. tom: two thirds of the way, even closer on the 40-basis point call.

not as low as they were an hour ago, but the velocity of the move is shocking. someone is losing money out there. jonathan: the biggest inversion going back 20 years. tom: we have to migrate forward on the issue at hand, speaker pelosi's moment on the way to taiwan. would i find so interesting is what i haven't heard out of washington, how alone is speaker pelosi on this trip? i don't see people lining up on marble steps saying blah, blah, blah for or against. how alone is she? >> she has the support of both parties all of a sudden thanks to the rhetoric coming from china. this is common during the august recess that members go to various countries.

this is a particularly sensitive one, however. we've heard from republicans and democrats who say you cannot turn back now. she has every right to visit the country and even the white house made clear, john kirby said we cannot tell her not to go and there is no change in policy. there is precedent for this trip. so basically, what is the problem? tom: the gentleman from maine was with us yesterday, the secretary of defense from ages ago, this is a change. there were almost no exports from taiwan to china. and now mainland china, 30% of their export business. they are amazingly entwined as two economies? joe: that is right, and that's another avenue for china to respond. we have been talking about so many different possible military responses. maybe they drop missiles into the sea. maybe there is an incursion of taiwanese airspace.what

about a diplomatic and economic response? these are likely all being considered by china and i'm not sure that we will see one immediately. it could take days. the news conferences here, and then you see the action from china. they are taking this seriously. i wonder how pronounce this visit will be? obviously nancy pelosi will be welcomed warmly by taiwan and they are very much looking forward, but will we have the red carpet arrival or will we have to wait hours to see images? lisa: how much discussion is there about how to diverge economic ramifications between conflict between china and the u.s.? the taiwanese semiconductor and manufacturing capabilities, this is one of the main sources of semiconductors and the world at

a time when that was one of the key components disrupting supply chains a couple of years ago. how was the u.s. prepared for possible disruption or an in general ramping up reduction in other places? joe: this was the argument that gina raimondo was making to get the chip act passed. what if we couldn't get chips out of taiwan, a chinese blockade, something would happen to impact our national security never mind consumer goods? that is why they got that across the finish line, the national security aspect, competing with china. this is part of a bigger conversation that the administration is having that involves chinese tariffs and also involves the potential for a face-to-face meeting between presidents biden and xi. they met by phone and that prompted a lot of the rhetoric we are hearing about nancy pelosi, but a sit down meeting between the two could bring more opportunity to advance the

political and economic agenda for the u.s. jonathan: the more we hear about that call last week the more contentious it sounds. tom: could that call have happened this week? that is a really important question, the deterioration. what are they going to talk about? jonathan: t.k., what are they going to talk about exactly. the idea that they remove tariffs anytime soon seems to have slipped off the last couple of days. lisa: it seems that is off the table and now there will be a question of penalty. how much that conversation foreshadowed this visit by pelosi to taiwan, considering that neither of them, neither xi jinping or joe biden's camp said that it was a constructive call. both said they would plan in person meetings. how much of that was in anticipation of a ratcheting up of the conflict to come to some understanding?neither

nation can handle the economic fallout now, particularly china. how does the u.s. use that leverage? jonathan: tensions have been simmering for some time reinforced by what happened in ukraine earlier this year and how china took the side of russia against the wishes of the u.s. administration. tom: no question come the linkage is there. what i would go back to you a change in rhetoric, and you have to reach back 4, 5, 6 years and this is about the sea in china. forget about the china of henry kissinger, this is not the china of early obama. jonathan: that is well framed. hawkish on the international stage. this is all we understand at this point, that we will get speaker pelosi landing in the country at 10:20 p.m. local time, about three hours from now. from there, who knows? lisa: and how quickly do we get a response?

you get the immediate pomp and circumstance, the show flying in somewhere, but when do we see the real fishers begin -- fissures begin? jonathan: it is defensive out there, risk aversion. the equity market is pulling down yields as well. down about a basis point on the 10-year. the dollar strength against the euro, negative. crude just about turning around in the last hour, now positive on the session. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: two ways of looking at this market, risk markets are rallying despite disappointing data. that indicates that a lot of this was anticipated, priced in. the other way is from goldman. they say we are getting too complacent to soon. -- too soon. a picture of events this morning, waiting for speaker pelosi to potentially land in taiwan in a little over three

hours. we don't know how china responds. futures declined. the nasdaq down .7%. it is still over pretty clear into the bond market will stop things get better as the session grows older. 30-year down three basis points. the 10-year, which has gone close to 350 all the way down to 255. a lot of work on the yield curve. the difference between the two, -30 basis points. i will point out the three month versus the 10 year. inversion as well. tom: the spread market is speaking volumes and repricing some form of slow down. everyone in the equity markets got an opinion here and there and i'm not sure which one to believe. the market is telling me, slow down. jonathan: defensive. to capture some of the defensiveness, the japanese yen stronger for five days.

dollar-yen from the middle of july, close to 140. now back to 13097. he likes the short against the euro and he is looking for the yen to come down from where we are now potentially into the one 20's. tom: the standard deviation study, that is a really strong japanese yen. way out. jonathan: it is about yields. we have some risk aversion and that is a stronger japanese yen. the yen story starting to work in a way it didn't work at the start of the year. we can see that this morning with lisa abramowicz. lisa: it doesn't confirm the gloom, and he is right when it comes to companies that have reported earnings so far.

pinterest and uber, their shares are down or than 40% so far ahead of today's trading session. both shares popping dramatically. pinterest reported earnings after the bell. those shares of nearly 20%. elliott management taking a majority stake, but also the resilience of their user base, which is majorly female and is down 5% on the year, but still a lot more robust than people expected. uber, better than expected earnings when they are facing off with ridesharing, inflation, amid the inflationary inputs, shares up 11% ahead of the open. not doing hot, jetblue down 3.4% on the heels of demand being very strong, capacity not meeting that. not seeing capacity coming up as much as people want. it's interesting the share prices coming down so much even though people are still paying more, and more than people

expected for the airline tickets. we have been covering this, but the oil companies, the earnings have been record-breaking in many capacities. bp posting the best earnings going back to 2000 eight, those shares up 2.5 percent with increasing dividends across the board. both had record profits. these are the two biggest shale and oil producers in the united states. they talked about increasing dividends. both share prices down. at what point to lower oil prices and the potential backdrop of slowing demand start to eat into some of these oil companies, even as they report record earnings? tom: the divide is ed morris of citigroup the other day really quite extraordinary, modeling out $80 as a possibility on oil. brent crude, in the six dollars spread off of the west texas intermediate. brent crude $101 a barrel.

she knows about jetblue. she outperformed on jetblue. she is this morning going to have the good counsel of mark mccormick. they will take out a good match. mark mccormick and elaine becker. mr. mccormick joins us, the global head of fx strategy at td securities. what is the dollar going to do in the next year? mark: we will talk about the peak dollar story. that's not where we are at in the next couple of months, but if we look where we are and extrapolate past this year it looks like we will be at the conditions of the peak dollar, the fed cutting rate. the euro zone is looking into a recession, but all of those factors could turn by next year, so that is the big forecast in the story, the turning of the dollar in the next year. tom: on a risk-adjusted basis, including geopolitical risk adjusted, which is the currency flat on its back with the greatest weak dollar

opportunity? mark: it is billion. from an evaluation -- it is still yet. from an evaluation perspective talking about the yield curve, 50% of the yield curve is inverted. if we think about the slowing conditions in the u.s. and how much of the yen has moved from fair value, fair value somewhere 110 to 115. if we think about the reversal of the dollar come the eurozone has a lot of cyclical problems to deal with. the big driver for what pushed the yen weaker has been global rates moving higher in the oil in terms of trade shock. you've already mentioned on the oil side, we are expecting oil prices to be lower next year as well. the combination of peak higher rates and essentially a peak in the terms of the trade cycle, which has been challenging for asian currencies the last six months, those reversals would help us see dollar-yen move back closer to failure value -- closer to fair value.

jonathan: is this a risk of trade that now works, or is it a trade that will work through the end of the year because of the dynamics you described? mark: the risk off helps because it is pushing yields lower. i think that is an important combination then what we are starting to see. the fed had articulated a bit of a focus on growth. we know they are not there yet. it is to trade this as a durable fee. in the year term buying the dollar against most major currencies, better for talking about the next six months to a year the conditions are changing where u.s. data is deteriorating. in the backdrop it doesn't have to be risk off. we are not going to see this persistent deterioration in terms of trade where oil prices are at 120 dollars a barrel. if are talking about oil below 100 next year that will be positive for the japanese trade balance and european trade balance as well.

lisa:lisa: let's say that the fed does not pivot. that they continue to raise rates and you start to see concern about having to go further and perhaps faster than people are expecting. at credit suisse, talking about a 5% to six. 6% hedge fund rate to get inflation down. does that eradicate as they start to forecast a higher dollar to come? mark: they're not playing with our baseline at 5% to 6% terminal rate. you can see that we are bit more hawkish than where the market is currently priced which is why we like the dollar now. if are talking about a 5% to 6% terminal rate next year, risk off and a global recession, this reinforces where we in. a global demand shock list the bed offering the dollars like the world safe haven. if you think about where assets have done well in the last three months, energy prices, chinese equities, and the dollars all there has been.

the dollar is offering relatively higher yields and decent data to a declining global economy. were talking about a 5% to 6% fed terminal rate, then the peak dollar story will not persist. lisa: what is your highest conviction trade now? mark: i know we've moved a lot in the short-term but i think some of the european crosses. sterling, the bank of england, sterling and downside is quite attractive, the euro-yen downside is quite attractive. tom: give us some numbers. my head is spinning. jon, take notes. please. i have lost my surveillance pencil. give me a yen number. short yen now is to what? mark: we are expecting better u.s. data, so i think we get a dollar-yen reversal to 133. we could see another half percent move higher in euro-yen i think we are going through 130.

i think that that would be a good short-term set up. tom: a year from now are you at 120 two standard deviations out or strengthened to 115? mark: we have yen at 120-ish. that environment will be quite bullish for the yen, particularly oil prices and the trade shock, which would start to reverse. tom: does this work for my 401(k)? jonathan: how relieved are you that foreign-exchange is no longer boring? mark: it would be great if the regime did not change every week, but yeah. [laughter] yeah, people care about fx again. jonathan: dear member that time that went on for years that no one really cared about foreign-exchange -- do you remember the time that went on for years that no one really cared about foreign-exchange? tom: no one is dozing off. that was amazing.

to translate that, weak yen, 130 to 133, and then a big move of strong yen. i think he said 120-ish. jonathan: 134 on euro-yen right now targeting 125. that is the end of september. that's the call. that's the timeframe and your number. lisa: how much of that is the weakening and the dollar, basically? this move away from the hawkish fed and the hawkish ecb no matter what, allowed japan to move away from some of theirs giving them breathing room. that could trigger this significant rally that people are calling for in the yen. jonathan: shout out to presenting the research in this way. they put the level of conviction next to the trade. they have a form of on a short euro-yen. tom: i have a strong conviction

that we need a refresher. jonathan: no doubt that you have a high conviction of that every morning every hour. on the nasdaq we have .3%. it is a serious morning, believe it or not. speaker pelosi seemingly heading to taiwan. the latest out of asia, coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. threats by china don't seem to be deterring house speaker nancy pelosi. she is expected to become the highest-ranking u.s. politician in 25 years to visit taiwan. china vowed and unspecified military response thinking of taiwan as part of its own territory. the u.s. took out a long terrorist who helped plan the 9/11 attack now the leader of al qaeda. ayman al-zawahiri has been killed in afghanistan by u.s. drone strike. in a statement at the white

house the president said justice has been -- their goal is to whittle down the $433 billion bill, which limits legislation with a simple majority. the ride-hailing company reported second-quarter revenues more than doubled beating estimates. uber is looking to include passenger rides, food delivery to an all-time high. posting second-quarter sales that beat estimates, the maker of construction and mining machinery is showing a slowdown in china with unfavorable manufacturing costs for raw prices for material. global news, 24 hours a day on-air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i think it's a mistake for the speaker to go to taipei. the goal of foreign policy with china is to reduce tensions not increase tensions. her visit to taiwan will clearly increase tensions. jonathan: speaker pelosi headed to taiwan. thus the former u.s. ambassador to china. futures are down .6% on the s&p. down three quarters of 1% on the nasdaq. lots of economic data this week, job openings in america coming up a little bit later. some fed speak as well this morning.

tom: are they going to speak forward guidance? it's fascinating how that will shift. jonathan: they have to talk about how they are dependent on the data. they have to reestablish their reach and function, so to speak, after a a lot of people saw the words of chairman powell last weekend is very dovish. tom: the real yield is now .07, a bounce in the right direction. jonathan: you mentioned the three-month, 10-year, that far away from inversion. tom: this is an important conversation. looking forward to speaker pelosi's historic trip, looking back to speaker gingrich in 1997. jonathan: 10:25 according to my reports. tom: this is the conversation across the bloomberg world. the bloomberg taipei bureau chief and far more than that, has lived the chinese experience, and we are thrilled he can joining us from taipei.

sampson, i want to know what the people of taiwan say. i say this with great respect for the lectures that i've had over the years. -- also scarlet fu of bloomberg who once took my head off as i conflated taiwan and china. what are the people of taiwan thinking this morning? sampson: you're definitely treading on very dangerous territory whenever you get into that debate over taiwanese versus chinese. for sure, i feel your pain. today we actually are finally getting palpable expectation in taipei. we are in the final countdown of answering this question that much of the globe has been

asking, will pelosi come to taiwan or will she? we will get that answer, and all indications are that she will be here. as for how people and taiwan are receiving this, largely for the last week it has been with a collective shrug. taiwan is always welcome these high-profile visits. taiwan is often largely excluded on the international stage. if pelosi is willing to come to taiwan, that is a cause for joy in taiwan, but -- tom: jon has made clear that the sea change for us is president xi, different leadership in beijing. to the people of taiwan, the government of taiwan, do they see a seachange in chinese leadership out of beijing? samson: there is no doubt that

xi jinping has changed everything with regard to china's relation to its periphery and the rest of the world. if you go back 10 years the predominant sense in taiwan is you had a pro chinese government, a government party that supported eventual unification with china. 10 years later we are in a different place in taiwan where there is a rapidly growing sense of taiwan moving ever further away from xi jinping's dream of reunification. lisa: what has the lesson been to taiwan from what happened in ukraine? samson: taiwan has been watching events in ukraine closely, as has china obviously. to learn exactly how -- and the

comparisons are obvious -- how can a smaller entity defend itself against this much larger, more powerful neighbor? definitely the lessons that it has learned are that first you have to prepare. you have to get your population ready and the population has to be willing to fight. a lot of taiwanese have been moved by what they have seen in ukraine by how willing people are to stand up and potentially laying down their lives to defend their country. they are definitely moved to start preparing the population to be mentally ready to potentially stand up and fight. and you have the logistical stuff like can you get enough munitions, enough material here that would sustain the fight until potentially you get a bigger ally, the united states and potentially japan, coming to help you? one thing that it has shown is that taiwan would not be able to fight that fight on its own.

lisa: quickly, tom began by asking you what the mood was like and you said it is a shrug, people don't care. is there however concerned about the economic blowback from china penalizing taiwan, not from a military perspective but an economic one? samson: that is obviously the predominant concern. while people do broadly welcome these kinds of visits to put taiwan in the international spotlight, people are absolutely aware that it does come with some negatives. we saw that yesterday when china banned the imports of foodstuffs from taiwan. one of the difficult things were taiwan is after this visit. it will open its arms to pelosi and welcome her, but taiwan did not initiate this. taiwan will suffer the repercussions and china's wrath. taiwan is in a difficult

position. jonathan: i think it is important to squeeze this in, what changed from your perspective, from china's perspective, and the last three to four months? when speaker pelosi was due to go in the spring she couldn't because she contracted covid. i don't remember this kind of rhetoric. what changed? samson: i think this goes back to ukraine. china is watching what is going on and it really notices that it needs to message very strongly if it is going to deter greater integration and contact between taiwan and the united states precisely because taiwan isn't ready to launch the full-scale invasion that we may see five to seven years from now or a decade from now. but it is messaging aggressively to convince the rest of the world to back off taiwan. jonathan: wonderful to catch up with you and fantastic to hear

your perspective on the ground in taiwan. a unique perspective on the ground. the take away from that, and lisa mentioned a couple of times, a collective shrug from a lot of people. tom: we have people worldwide across the bloomberg world and it is valuable. i know that it's a serious day, but may be a road trip to taipei. i think we need to do more than that. i have only been to the airport. we need to do more. we need to do more. jonat your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.

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>> looking at the market reaction, the higher inflation is a game changer. >> a great deal of inflation we have experienced doesn't have a life of its own.