morning. a quick recap for you on

saltgen. you're looking at long losses coming down to $217 million. approximately a third of what -- the -- it is charging ahead. also the estimates, we ask the man who is in running for the c.e.o. job in just under 30 minutes. how he's going to grow the market business to $4.7 billion to $5.3 billion in the next three years. he joins me in just over 30 minutes. stay tuned for the man whose hat is in the ring for leadership at society general --

societe general. smarkt at $397 million. lighter than expected. this is a theme that's building. can it endure in a recessionnary environment that is said to be coming down the pipe. they confirm the outlook for the year. swelling to $1.48 billion. above the estimate again. still see the full year net income of one billion euros. the estimate was 1.06. let's keep and eye on that. can they endure with that guidance work the recession, and loan losses at a steady state. that's commerce bank. with an equity buffer, core equity buffer. 13.7%. let me take you briefly to axsa. a buyback. buyback for all my friends. not just the oil companies but insurance as well. they're launching a buyback of one billion euros.

revenue certainly beating the estimate. 55.14. on a net basis, also considerable, 4.1. so no sign of a slowdown or exceptional items so far in this report on the wild fires and sort of the various natural disasters that we've had. those are the reports. let's get to our reporters around the world. nancy pelosi's contentious visit to taiwan, we have the team, cindy is in taipei, colin is in beijing. so let's get to taipei first of all. i listened to speaker nancy pelosi saying she didn't understand why such a fuss is being made. maybe it's because she's a woman and all the other visitors are men. do you think she took some heat out of the political angst? >> we want someone to always

have freedom with secure and we're not backing away from that. manus: pelosi spoke twice and made it very, very clear on the u.s. standing with taiwan on a number of directives. do you think she escalated or de-escalated the situation? cindy: hello. manus: what is your take? pelosi talked about security, economy, and governance and she made it very, very clear, an unequivocal message that the u.s. stands by taiwan. your take?

>> that's right. pelelow see told taiwan's president this morning in their meeting the u.s. won't abandon tie won and right now, more than ever, u.s. solidarity with taiwan is crucial. that's the message she wants to bring to the tie what wan ease people. -- tie what these people -- taiwanese president. pelosi said she wants taiwan to be secure in freedom as well. that's really a strong and powerful message she's bringing to taiwan right now. she's also saying that, they discussed -- she discussed the possibility, the trade possibilities with taiwanese leaders as well as other possibilities for deepening cooperation from both sides. so that's a huge boost for the

taiwanese people, confidence, and the taiwanese government, since the president took office in 016 she has tried her best to seek u.s. support. pelosi's visit undoubtedly will be another successful win for the government here in taiwan. manus: thank you very much. let's go to colin, standing by for us. pelosi's visit prompted us to announce military drills, some of the the most provocative action, and said they would not back down on heightened military threats. >> taiwan has always been open to constructive dialogue and will work with stake holders to bring about stability and peace in the region.

manus: colin was there a second ago. let's return to him. these military drills are the most significant since 1994. six exclusion zones. when you read the list of what china is doing with some new tariffs and some new action on that, how significant are these drills? colin: well, i think most people are saying that it is definitely an escalation compared to the previous incidents in the 1990's. but even as you go through the list of the different measures, it's still not enough to satisfy some of the people here in china. there were some social media chatter overnight expressing disappointment at the level of retaliation, especially when you contrast that with the, you know, bellicose and hyperbole

that was in place before the visit took place, where there was a lot of menacing language coming from the chinese foreign ministry. even though the list is quite long of the measures that china is taking, some people say that it's not going far enough. this is crucial because if there is a gap and the gap persists between the actions of the government -- that the government is taking an, you know, the perception amongst the broader expansion -- expanse of the yen public that's going to reflect poorly on the government perhaps and also this year being a critical year for him, the last thing he wants to be seen is to be considered weak by his own people. manus: and indeed pelosi did make, it's fascinating. if you go back and listen to the speech from pelosi, she talked about xi's own insecurities in regards to what's going nonchina. you're on your way to the finance minister's briefing. what do you think that is going to yield, colum?

is it going to be more about action on taiwan? 88% -- i love the op-ed, 88% of all the major huge cargo ships travel through taiwan straits last year. this is a big risk for the world's supply chains. >> clearly. yes, as you mentioned, i will be going to a briefing by the chinese foreign ministry, that takes place at 3:00 today. you know, it's impossible to guess exactly the nature of the press briefing today. one of the possibilities would be sanctions and actually sanctions on pelosi herself. this is something that, you know, has been done in the past. there's a number of u.s. officials have been sanctioned. but you know, the general feeling is that sanctioning u.s. officials is not that effective. and a more sort of pressing or impact. approach would be to pursue u.s.

companies. or as you mentioned, some of the logistics issues around shipping or chips. but we haven't seen a lot of evidence that that's the next step. it would be definitely an escalation and would be definitely more impact. than say, you know, sanctions on u.s. officials that are in effect meaningless. manus: thank you very much. let's see how things evolve and whether the chinese are keeping their noses dry in terms of acts that can be brought to bear. let me set up the risk a-- risk agenda i would say the bond market exploded, that's where you want to focus. the equity market we're seeing some level of stoicism one could say. futures are managing to eke out gains. bank of america says too soon for stocks to fade. recession. july darlings were the worst so

far. they expect a meaningfully higher equity market. even as real yields turn positive, equity markets turning on to some small gains. it's the sixth biggest one day move in 10-year government bonds in the history of 10-year bonds. 2.70% is where you are on 10-year government bonds. they say, we are still resolute and united. that leaves the bond market with a lot of angst. let's talk about the market moves. we've got fed talk, we've got the asian data coming through. we'll talk about that in a moment. a little bit of green there. and the fed officials send a powerful message, top priority is bringing down inflation.

there is a long way to go. >> we talk about recession per se, it's are we growing below or above trend. and you know, my forecast for this year is that we'll be growing below trend. but that's necessary in order to get price increases, inflation, under control. >> i'd like to see the policy rate get to 3.75% to 4% this year. i think that inflation has come in hotter than what i would have expected in the second quarter. so now that that has happened, i think we're going to have to go a little higher than i was saying before. manus: 4%, do you think the market is ready for that? >> there seems to be an effort to correct the market now. we had four officials from the fed out overnight making the point of look, bringing down inflation remain theirs top

priority. we had charles evans of the chicago fed saying he thinks they're a couple of reports away where they might be comfortable with inflation. mary daley for the san francisco fed made clear inflation is the absolute focus for now. it seems to suggest at the very least these kind of large size or jumbo size rate hikes will be a consideration going forward. jim bullard also making the point he sees a possibility for a soft landing. he doesn't see a recession for the u.s. economy. so there's been that since the last fed meeting when they said there could be some rate hikes. i think these four officials are making it clear that inflation remains a clear and present danger for them. manus: it certainly does. thank you very much. our chief asian correspondent. stocks in asia, trying to understand what nancy pelosi's

visit did, aren't they? then add in p.m.i. coming in better on the services side. balance the act for me. how are you? >> a lot more sanguine today. a lot of anxiety we had yesterday taken out of the markets. they are lifting the offshore yuan. for taiwan, down for a third. that's lifting the hang seng tech index. and we're looking ahead to ali ba ba as well. and the big e.v. batterymaker could be delaying its north america plant plans on pelosi's visit. they say it wouldn't affect the stock but we're seeing shares down about 2% today. let's look at my chart as well. there's an interesting call, the uncertainty of the taiwan could boost some of the south korean chipmakers if they short the

taiwan stocks and head on south korean chipmakers instead. taiwan stocks has been an underperformer ahead of pe low' cease visit -- pelosi's visit this year in terms of dollar. manus: thank you very much. the latest on the reaction on pelosi's visit to taiwan. coming up, market watchers skeptical that opec will answer the u.s. call for more supply. we drill into the story here on bloomberg. ♪

>> the thing that concerns every airline chief executive is oil price. >> i'm calling triple digits through the end of the calendar

year and into 2023. >> that's the single biggest task in terms of fuel. at the moment there's probably risk in that going forward. >> where we are today there's more upside than downside. >> from the mid 80's, w.t.i. in the low 80's. >> the temporary pullback in crude and gas prices, or crude oil prices, is a temporary reprieve. >> gasoline prices have come up. the continued strength of the dollar, as you noted, it's weakening. just the sheer high price is deterring people from using their cars. >> opec is producing under capacity. we're about to see demand continue to go up. >> what we do so see is continued volatility and tight marks going forward. manus: our guests on bloomberg weighing in on the oil market. let's stay with that story. you've got oil watchers and skepticism creeping in that opec will answer the call from u.s. president joe biden for more oil

supplies when it meets today. expecting the coalition to preserve the remaining capacity for another day. our reporter is with me. steven, many scenarios are being put forward on the table today for opec's decision. the question is, is now the right time in the jaws of recession to add more? they've added back 10 million which is what they took off. is now the moment to turn on the spigot. >> according to analysts we surveyed, no. now is not the moment to do that. when you look at what saudi arabia has been saying for month they don't see a crude oil supply crunch. they see a refinery crunch. which is why you saw gasoline prices rise so much. now gasoline prices are falling. oil prices have weakened down to basically prewar levels. and the market is looking to be in a better situation than it was even just last month. so when saudi arabia and other

members come together, the analysts we've surveyed don't think there'll by any -- there'll be any increase for september that could also be doing not getting any anger out of russia which is having sanctions against them, and they would lose market share if saudi arabia or other countries boost the jut put that. being said there are some scenarios presented by some analysts that say there could be a modest increase to answer what biden is asking. maybe 200,000 barrels a day. one analyst said one million barrels a day. if it does happen that could add a bearish element to oil markets and they could continue trending down. manus: my apologies to our viewers whose ear crumbs probably popped on that, that was my inner sneeze coming out. i loved your piece on bloomberg.com, so much so i've used the map, ex-told your virtue, it's very prescient, you

are identifying the risk. an 88% tail risk for the global economy. qualify what 88% is, it's on u.s.-china tensions on the taiwan strait. talk me through it. >> what we're seeing now is china is going to have these war games, missile drils in the taiwan strait over the next -- through the this weekend. and there is this fear that it will disrupt deliveries. it was a surprise to me when we were crunching the you were in bus 88% of large ships go through the taiwan strait. it is a very important part of the ocean. it's a place that, you know, it's centrally located near china and because of that, there is a risk to supply chains. to l.n.g. shipments. to oil shipments. supply chains are already strained. >> i think this is the most underpriced tail risk. your article defines for me what

the longer term tail risk is for the world. keep up the good work. we love the bloomberg.com article. i'll be your banner fan for the month. the latest on the oil markets and risk from u.s. china. i suppose escalation of tensions. latest quarterly earnings. the german medical company took a hit from continued supply shortages, china's lockdown and lower covid antigen. have they hit the numbers? let's get to it. i'm looking at your guidance. you're going to cut your full year imaging at comparable sales. what is it that is hitting you yao? is it the supply capacity side or the demand?

>> thank you for having us. we are very, very happy with the demand we are seeing. the double digit growth of 1.3 in the last quarter i think is a very, very strong message that we have the right products and that demand out there is extremely high. what made the last quarter a little difficult was supply chain challenges, inbound and outbound logistics mainly caused by the lockdowns in china which took about a month longer than originally expected. but we are very, very confident that with a strong q4 we will make sure to make the full-year guidance. manus: are your shanghai and shenzhen operations back at full capacity now? >> yes, they are. and i want to really give kudos to the teams there who did so much during the lockdown and were able to limit the effects

on our q3 results and i think still growth between 3% and 8% of our imaging, the team vet weathered the storms extremely well. manus: how much of a tail risk do you see in taiwan strait. 88% of the biggest cargo ships in the in the world pass through there. how big a risk is that for the world and you? >> i am confident and i hope that everybody is committed to peace. we are very positive in the way our supply chain is set up. also that a lot of the business in china is -- the business for

china is produced in china. and the same in europe and in the united states. it can be a couple of things but first and foremost i think is that everybody stays committed to keep peace. manus: let's see whether that endures and that is a global aspiration. very few i talk to are not able to pass on price hikes, supply chain costs. are you renegotiating any contracts? raising prices on the imaging side of the business? across the business? if so, how much? >> we are not renegotiating existing contracts, of course. but we have -- we are changing pricing measures in new orders.

typically the business has a book to build time of six to 18 months so that the pricing measures which we will see on the revenue side come a little bit later ta, then we see the impact on our own cost side which is also one of the reasons for the margins in the quarter we will talk about today. manus: covid is far from gone. it's very present depending on where you travel in the world. what's the demand like for your rapid test you antigen rapid tests? >> demand is stillthere fortunately and unfortunately, we have raised full-year expectations by another tissue in our numbers by another 200 million to 1.5 billion.

it's a business for us that is not part of the core of what our company stands for. it shows the agility of our company and our commitment to global health but to be very, very honest, i hope for a future without covid and without the need of this business. manus: ok. thank you so much for joining us. thank you very much for being with me. coming up on the show, a deeper dive into those numbers from socgen. the guidance from the head of global banking. and investor solutions from a french lender. his take on how do you grow? ♪

good morning from our middle east headquarters in dubai. it is "daybreak europe." speaker pelosi meets the president of taiwan and praises one of the world's freest societies, but an enraged china announces provocative military drills. treasury yields surge after the fed opec is expected to maintain production levels to boost supplies. society general has outlined a new growth -- eight new growth targets, promising higher profitability, rising interest rates, and a global trading rally have provided

tailwinds. operating profits and revenue beating estimates. we have with us socgen's head of global banking. thank you very much for joining me this morning. a great set of numbers, a nice beat. loan losses are dropping. i want to get to this guidance you have given. global markets have grown their revenue. where will the offer for that growth come from? >> thank you for having me. the output for the growth in markets comes from being diversified, being close to your clients, being as we have been over the last three decades, and making sure you are organized and ready and able to capture growth in the market.

we want to recognize that depending on market conditions and market opportunities, we will oscillate between these numbers, but much higher than they have been in the past. manus: obviously it has been a blistering return in the market business in the second quarter from rates to equities. was it all rates and inflation trade that made these numbers in fic? >> fic is a lot of commercial activity across the board for the reasons you just outlined. demand for positioning on the financial institutions side. for hedging on the corporate side has soared in a context with chaz -- which has changed dramatically because of the war. this helps especially on the rates side but also, risk

management. market's are more volatile. they are changing more often. you have to have strong risk management delivered on both. the ability to retain commercial value. >> how would you describe the market positioning on inflation? a lot of my friends who are brokers and traders have a massive trade on inflation spikes and saw them roll off. >> my view, you obviously have the impact of the war in ukraine which really through oil -- threw oil on the fire that was already there in terms of inflation. there were a number of major decisions made at the beginning of the year and sort of a rush

to get things done in a new context. now i think with the policy response across the world, both in the u.s. and europe, you have somewhat of a level situation where people are saying ok, we did what we had to do, and the monetary authorities are doing what they have to do. let's see what happens now. is there going to be demand destruction? is there going to be real recessionary trends across the board, which we don't really see entirely happening yet. actually speaking with our corporate clients. there is a wait-and-see situation at a different level, right? manus: you are not preparing for a hurricane as jamie dimon is or a major recession, even in europe? >> we are very cautious because we have a lot of weird trends out there.

but we are not preparing right now for a hurricane. we are extremely cautious recognizing the patterns that are out there apply -- at play are unique in the last couple decades. we are cautious, but not overly pessimistic at this stage. manus: the u.s. banks are pulling back on their variable calls. you were ready for massive bonuses at the end of last year. are you banking massive variable costs on these numbers? what is your adjective for q2 allocation? >> i knew you would come up with that question. it is too early for me to give you a good headline. we are in a market which is driven by market forces. it is clear that performance was

strong. for now it is in line with the proposal. manus: once bitten, twice shy, you don't want to be -- come with me on the journey. are you having to pay up to keep rainmakers at socgen? >> listen, it is all about performance. you have to reward performance in a market which is full of demand. we are competing for clients like everyone else making sure we are efficient in this competition. manus: very constrained today. do you think you can keep the cost of risk where it is? your lowest revision is something the market will focus on, well below the estimate. cannot hold steady? how confident are you?

>> it can and it is linked to my comment about the macro outlook. we are guiding to 230 basis points for the year because we want to remain cautious. not overly pessimistic, but cautious. manus: let me see whether you throw caution to the wind. you are in the running to succeed. credit suisse went internal, unicredit went external. do you think socgen should go full french with you? are you optimistic to get that seat? >> let me give you one. i'm not overly pessimistic as with the macro outlook. all jokes aside it is a question for the board.

we will see what happens, but yes. it is a question for the board, manus. manus: do you think the culture within societe generale lends itself to the leader of the investment bank as a more prime candidate for culture? >> in terms of culture, socgen has a very specific one which has served us well in terms of managing crisis and capturing innovation trends and growth trends. it is true across the board. it is true in retail banking, and so i think the culture of socgen is great across the board and lends itself to a lot of options. manus: we wish you well with that race and the growth target you have set up. ambitious targets for your side of the bank. that is slawomir krupa, socgen

head of global banking. to the in syria's -- insurance giant axa. revenue boosted by inflows to the management business and price increases on the insurance products. the shareholders will be happy. a buyback of one billion euros. well done. talk me through how you are managing to raise prices in the current environment and the buyback. good morning. >> we are certainly in an environment where the cost is increasing. when you look at different businesses, our corporate business, we are always very closely following into price increases. we have on the retail business in many of the areas, for example household controls.

making sure your claim is reflected in price increases is very important. manus: do you think the pricing can hold? hopefully you heard the society general chief. do you think you are -- your pricing rises can endure if there is a material slowdown as many people are expecting? >> the price increases have support because the price increases do represent the increase in the inflation of the claims. if those prices do not hold we will not be able to ensure some of these risks. we are doing everything to make sure on the one hand there is a clear correlation, but also, we

work a lot with our companies and clients to work on prevention. making sure we are reducing and avoiding claims. this is of more and more importance. we have launched deplatform where we help customers -- launched a platform where we help customers with claims. manus: if i look at what has happened on the national catastrophe site in france, italy, and germany, will i see the wounds of that come through on your numbers on these natural catastrophes? are you going to have to take a sizable hit if it is an unknown known at this stage? how can you guide the market? >> the catastrophes of the first half of the year are reflected in the numbers today. we have seen quite a few events.

you mentioned the event in europe. there are others in the world. what we have done this year, we have seen it on the regional side. we have cut back significantly our exposure this year by 40% in order also to align our own risk appetite with this new reality. so the second half as you know is always more prone to natural catastrophe, particularly when you look at the u.s.. the american season will start soon. we hope we will not have a difficult second half. manus: many companies have been rewarded by the scale of their buybacks, by the anticipation of increasing buybacks. we have had a billion today with a firm commitment to increasing.

how would you describe the dividend policy to the markets? >> it is positive news for shareholders. we have moved from being a life insurance, a strong player in technical risk that has not very much links to the economic cycle , so we have today very good results. this is also resulting in a high generation of cash. we are investing every year into our business. i mentioned one of these investments earlier. we return our capital to shareholders and we have shown

that today. manus: the other question is of course not just returning shareholder capital, but we have written this story about you eyeing bankrolled insurance business. i know credit agricole has picked up a stake in that. you're deploying capital to buybacks bar you prepared to go into a full bidding war? -- buybacks, but are you prepared to go into a full bidding war? how prepared are you? >> we are very public in italy. we have a good collaboration with mbs which has worked very well over the years. i think you have full understanding i'm not commenting on any ongoing affairs. manus: but as the ceo, are you prepared to --

>> this market is attractive for us. we have a very good collaboration. if we can extend to italy, we will happily do it. manus: well deflected. we wish you well with that. we will pick up on themes about how you see the u.k. next time. we will see how the market takes the news flow on the day. an exclusive conversation. coming up, shares are the most since 2020. ordering takeout food in the face of u.s. inflation. we talked the numbers on the hour.

manus: it is "daybreak europe" from divine. -- from dubai. the firm achieve positive cash flow for the first time along with a record gross cooking in revenue. after the bell, airbnb. joining us with a breakdown is laura wright. where's you want to go? -- where do you want to go? >> it is good to be reunited. the market liked what it heard. it explains why uber closed up almost 19%. uber's business appears to be diversifying in the current macroenvironment. the platform is still making a net loss but uber is vying to show the street it is making good on its commitments toward profitability. my chart shows total growth bookings which i will break

down. orange is mobility which of course encompasses ride-hailing. uber has been able to combat the driver shortage. they have increased driver supplied by 31% year on year. they have increased wages which customers have paid for in the form of higher prices. so far no sign that customers have been deterred as a result. delivery is in the white line and it still is the largest proportion of total growth bookings. hoover believes we are all now habitual takeaway eaters -- uber believes we are all now habitual takeaway eaters but it cannot deny takeout has decelerated sharply. year-over-year revenue growth of over 400%. what we saw from maersk earnings yesterday, providers are experiencing significant upside to supply chain congestion entire freight prices. manus: are you a habitual

takeaway orderer or can you cook? i used to cook a lot. >> i'm a once a week takeaway kind of girl if i'm honest. manus: where are you on airbnb? i mentioned the higher end the booking model. >> i like to keep my cards close on that front. even though it was a beat on earnings and the platform forecast record revenue in the third quarter, the achilles' heel was the miss on bookings in the last quarter and the guidance of stable bookings. investors want to see companies capitalizing on demand for traveling. at present, the market remains circumspect on airbnb as illustrated by its year to date share price. manus: it is interesting, just the takeaway orders missed by

7%. so maybe there is a bit of a differential in terms of who we are ordering through. good to see you. reunited again, my producer in zurich. a long-suffering person on the road with me. we take a look at some of the markets in just a moment. we have bond markets flying higher in terms of yields. we take you through the very latest on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak europe." let's get across for the first word news with juliette saly. >> nancy pelosi has reaffirmed u.s. support for taiwan despite threats of military action by china. she made her comments in a

ceremony with the president of taiwan who said the visit shows international support for the island. closely is the highest-ranking american official to visit taiwan in 25 years. water levels on the rise huge quantities of goods at risk. in germany, a key waypoint for the transport of commodities, it is set to drop seven centimeters from being all but impossible. the rhine is essential to deliveries of commodities. russian president vladimir putin will meet with president erdogan to discuss exports of grain from ukraine after the first ship carrying grain exports from odessa arrived in turkey. kyiv began mandatory evacuation of ukrainians from the eastern region of donetsk has russian attacks continued.

u.s. job openings fell to a nine-month low in june suggesting the tight labor market is cooling amid growing economic pressures. the number of available positions decreased. the drop was the biggest since april 2020. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: thank you very much. we had bmw's numbers earlier and it is a beat on the sales and the auto components. a beat on the top line earnings also. they talk about deliveries being slightly below 2021. we are still having difficulties. they do see a significant increase in group pretax profit.

and when it comes to the margin, a lot of automakers focus on the higher-margin cars and putting their chips in those more premium products. full-year automotive margin will be seven to nine. the estimate was for 8.4%. no material downgrade on the margin guidance. keep an eye on bmw and socgen. confident on containing the cost of risk. a snapshot of where we are with markets before anna and mark take you through the next hour. the s&p 500 is up and running. the bank of america say too soon for stockmarkets to pay for a recession. markets will remain meaningfully higher. this is bloomberg. ♪

this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.

so many people are overweight now, and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now there's release from golo. it naturally helps reverse insulin resistance, stops sugar cravings, and releases stubborn fat all while controlling stress and emotional eating. at last, a diet pill that actually works. go to golo.com to get yours.