>> the fed had articulated a focus on growth. we know they are not there yet. >> focusing on inflation, inflation is still rising. >> the view here is that the fed will remain aggressive in trying to curb inflation and as a result, increase recession risks. >> i think they want to be cautious about pivoting too soon. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: good morning good

morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. futures positive for tenths of 1%. officials lining up. tom: i was watching the major league baseball trading and that was more interesting but there it is in the markets move one way, move the other way. are we back to forward guidance? jonathan: the two year yield, a coiled spring. up 18 basis points. tom: look at the five-year. jonathan: the san francisco fed saying we are nowhere near done yet. 2/10 of 1% lower on the nasdaq yesterday. tom: service sector has resilient consumption and maybe you see that with inequities holding on and a certain kind of equities. jonathan: bramo wasn't watching

the baseball. lisa i know you are looking at the data. job openings in america coming in, aggressively. lisa: how much does it mean that you are starting to see a weakening in the labor market versus all of the fall sever ties and for jobs because companies are ratcheting back hiring plans. what i'm getting at is how do you read data that is soft, that is not necessarily so clear and isn't exactly the hard data we get in the jobs reports out on friday. jonathan: the academic debate of the moment, can we break job openings down without pushing unemployment higher? a lot out on that topic at the moment. lisa: there is this perfect reality that people are looking for, some mystery behind why the participation rate has not picked up and we are not seeing more people come back and say we have to work now and i think people are hoping that will resolve itself and get itself back to some kind of equilibrium at a time when that is not

happening quickly enough. jonathan: afternoon baseball before i hit these markets? tom: the premier league does just as well. it is fun and the padres looked good. jonathan: two thirds of the show, prepared for today. futures positive on the s&p and the nasdaq 100. tom: josh haider came out to the mound. jonathan: good to know. a real turnaround in the last 24 hours. lisa: it has been shocking because everybody knew the fed was pushing back on the huge rally we saw in stocks and basically said that the bond yields were not responding to something to the fed was actually going to do which is back away from rate hiking and yet here we are. i can rant about that for the rest of the show but i will spare everybody. when it comes to the hard data,

opec-plus is set to agree. how much do you think they will increase output in response to the trip president biden took to saudi arabia? how much activity is declining? do we get some sense of that push pull in the latest reads on the economic outlook? we have seen softening in the services industry. the services index for the month of july, how much does it continue to decline at a time and we are supposed to see a shift from goods to services? we have also seen services start to really bleed lower and then the next read on that we will get today is a slew of earnings. we've had companies reporting earnings. i'm curious about some of these discretionary spending companies but how much does it show people

are seeing prices going up for the basic staples of life, pulling back from the other less basic items and how much do you start to see that in the anecdotal data? jonathan: i was going through earnings calls data yesterday afternoon. the word weakness came up repeatedly for disc -- for consumer discretionary. consumer discretionary on the s&p 500 is up 20% from the month of june. lisa: people are looking at the next cycle and saying consumer discretionary is the place to be if we are seeing the bottom, the downturn now. how much more weakness is there to go, and we get a sense of some projections -- and do we get a sense of some projections? jonathan: more fed speak to come through today. the founder and ceo of -- joins us now. a coiled spring, two year

yields. what did you make of that pushback from fed speakers across the country? >> they reiterated the men should -- they reiterated the message they were trying to send. the reason why we had a dramatic rally in fixed income over the last few weeks. a reversal -- i think the big issue we have in the market is that the fed is not about to pivot and it is the same issue we have for many places around the world. it is too early for central banks to come out and explicitly signal something new but at the same time, the growth data we are getting is soft. the market is looking through what the fed and other central banks are saying right now, saying they will have to pivot. it is this tension between what they are actually seeing on the market trying to be one step ahead of that. tom: of got like 14 questions.

let me boil it down. we were just handed double digit developed world inflation. 10.3%, announced moments ago. up from 9.2 percent and 8.8%. we've got this global inflation. what is the dollar dynamic if we are ever so lucky as to get u.s. inflation from 9% down to 7%? does dollar move? jens: i think what we have seen over the last two or three weeks is that we have this incredible tension between weak growth and the fact the long end of the u.s. yield curve is set lower. the dollar has been stuck between those two things. from a medium-term perspective, you will often find that the big cycle in the dollar is determined by the global growth

cycle. it is hard to see if we don't have any green shifts in the economy, it is hard to see the dollar weakening dramatically but we could have a big reset in the yield curve, and that is what we have seen over the last couple of weeks. lisa: jens, yesterday we were talking about nancy pelosi visiting taiwan. a game changer not only for geopolitics but also the markets. we saw a big reaction with the going lower and then jobs from the fed scent at the other way. is this going to be a lasting story or a blip on the road to whatever is going to happen to the economy and fed speak? jens: the big issue that i speak to with exante data clients, is where exactly is inflation going to land? in the coming months we will have a situation where goods prices are going to come down.

gasoline prices are down in the u.s. you can see it around the world. the july inflation readings we are getting are a little different. that is not enough for the fed. the fed needs to see that on a broad basis, there is something new going on, meaning services prices. it is going to take some time before we can have conviction that there is something really different going on and i think it is going to be really difficult for the fed. headlines coming down a bit but services prices are still sticky. that is why the market is trading so erratically white now -- right now. we need to be careful with the orange points -- origin points but there are some rates where -- it is too quick a pivot price. european rates, we think there is going to be a need for the

ecb to do meaningful steps to get into positives and that has been priced out. jonathan: jens nordvig of exante , thank you very much. the debate around ecb rates, very one sided. a complete lack of belief about how far they can go in the yen seems to be pushing back against that. tom: where on -- where are we on the bank of england? that is tomorrow? i can't convey enough about how these are three different dialogs we are getting about japan. bank of england with the inflation story and the politics and i can barely keep up. does the bank of england step back in honor of the politics? jonathan: no, they have to step in, in honor of the data. i'm looking ahead to next week. cpi out of america.

8.8%, year-over-year. month over month changes to inflation is something the president mentioned yesterday. tom: we've got to stop. this is really important. august 10, models up and as was mentioned yesterday, the trimmed one-month data was nothing short of stunning. the inflation metric on a 30 day basis is up. jonathan: that is what this market is going to be focused on next week. lisa: it is not going to give people comfort and it may cause doubling down on the trade we saw in the second half of yesterday when people realized the fed cannot take their foot off the brakes that quickly. you pointed this out this morning. we didn't see it in stats. jonathan: resilience is the word of the moment. up again today by 4/10 of 1%.

we will get the view of kristin bigley coming up in about 50 minutes time. we can confirm nancy pelosi has taken off from taiwan. tom: she is heading east. i'm watching it on flight radar. jonathan: we will catch up in d.c.. tom has two screens. baseball on the one with a flight radar on the other. tom: the pond raise and dodgers, it is going to be great. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, with the first word, i am ritika gupta. house speaker nancy pelosi pledged the u.s. will not abandon taiwan. she reaffirmed support for the democratic elected government in taipei despite new threats of chinese military action. pelosi met with taiwan's leader and left today for south korea.

china announced military drills to protest the visit. they also halted some trade. the federal reserve is pushing back against the idea that policymakers may move away from tightening. there were -- there were remarks that there is no sign inflation is easing. voters in kansas have refused to change the state constitution to declare but there is no right to an abortion. it was the first referendum on abortion since the supreme court said each state could set its own policy and voter turnout was high. four other states will hold similar votes in november. in the u.k., -- suggesting she is on track to some -- to succeed boris as the uk prime minister. the u.k. poll shows the foreign secretary with a 34 point lead. it is a timely boost for the trust campaign.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the delegation came to taiwan

to make unequivocally clear, we will not abandon our commitment to taiwan and we are proud of our enduring friendship. jonathan: speaker pelosi yesterday, taking off from taiwan about an hour ago today. good morning. futures positive just about up 4/10 of 1%. the yields much higher in yesterday's session. up another basis point. bouncing around on the u.s. 10 year. here is the latest from richard haass. the reit -- the recent visit is getting attention and because of china's a reaction. the mainland prioritize relation with the u.s. it would have downplayed the visit saying to expect of the u.s. to live up to the one china policy. this crisis is about mainland politics. tom: he took that from you

yesterday. you were out front on that that the dynamic of america is pretty much the same as it has always been. you were dead on about this being simply a changed china. jonathan: a changed china under this leader and ultimately a changed economy. tom: with taiwan, 30% of time one exports to the mainland and we saw some kind of sand yesterday that was cut off by the chinese. annmarie hordern joins us. speaker pelosi is north of -- on the way to japan and seoul. it brings forward the proposed meeting of the chinese and american leaders. was that blown up yesterday or are we still going to see a meeting? annmarie: nothing has changed so far. what we do know is that taking away from that call xi jinping

had with president biden, that they set up a personal meeting. we should note that during that call, there was already a lot of talk and speculation and most everyone assumed speaker pelosi was going to make this trip to taiwan. xi jinping was pretty much well aware that the speaker of the house would be going to taiwan when he directed his team to set up an in-person meeting. i believe they are still doing that, and that will likely come in november because the president will be in asia. that would potentially be the first time the two meet with biden as president. tom: there was respectful silence yesterday, to be given dangers or worries of speaker pelosi's safety. as she leaves taiwan, outcomes the knives and criticism. give us the distinction that this was not bipartisan. the post has a fabulous

photograph of speaker pelosi 30, 40 years ago on china. what is the significance that republicans weren't invited? annmarie: republicans, i believe they were invited and decided to not go. you had heard from minority leader kevin mccarthy saying that if he is speaker, he would love to lead a delegation as well. i would say the republicans have supported this trip. they released a statement about -- saying they are very much in support of speaker pelosi's visit to taiwan and they applauded her visit and it think that she should be doing this, standing firm in the face of china at also making sure that the united states reaffirming that they have not changed their policy of its ambiguous one china policy. there has been a lot of support for her on the others of the aisle. this has got a lot of bipartisan support. if she didn't go on this trip,

that is where you would have seen a lot of the political backlash and republicans would have said that the democrats looked week in beijing, which is not advantageous. lisa: what is the sense that we get about additional ramifications from china? the response we have already seen being some of the military exercises and some sanctions on certain goods. what is next? annmarie: we don't know yet, but you can imagine it is more of the same. for the military exercises, they have given exact dates. those would linger and you now have a lot of asian flight carriers having to divert around taiwan because the chinese military, the actions they are doing. the big question on the military front is maybe this continues but for how long? of course when it comes to the trade sanctions, you have china not allowing exports of sand,

that taiwan will likely have to get from the philippines to make concrete. at the same time, one of taiwan's biggest exports is fruit in china is cutting that off -- and china is cutting that off. you see the consequences not on nancy pelosi but on taiwan. you can see with the speaker left, you had people trying to get any sort of moment with her. that will not happen in beijing. jonathan: thank you, anne-marie. lisa, how do we get the leaders to meet in person? are we anywhere close to removing chinese tariffs? lisa: it seems like that is off the table. people are saying that potential leaf is gone. how significant is this going to be in terms of accelerating the breach between the u.s. and china economically?

there are the military exercises. people are not expecting a huge altercation. the issue is, how much does the u.s. pull back from china or the other way around as china starts to retaliate economically? jonathan: china has its own problems. covid zero is the number one issue. it is the mortgage boycott, the direction of the economy, the data is weak. tom: the math is shockingly simple. the run rate is china is 6% and the answer is 3% is unacceptable and 3% signals a global recession and there are many surveys that look at where china is set right now. jonathan: i looked at the ecfc function on the terminal and 4% is the estimate right now. there were others looking for that 3% handle. tom: it is gospel that

domestically it is all about jobs and keeping people employed and busy within the unique government of china, if you want to call it that. it'll be fascinating to see. they need growth badly and that is going to play into their response to speaker pelosi and president biden. jonathan: and try to avoid any kind of social unrest. your equity markets shaping up as follows. up a third of 1% on the s&p, also the nasdaq. yesterday, a dramatic move higher in the two year yield. yields creeping higher today on a 10 year, by about three basis points. from new york, good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: good morning. futures tracking lower. the nasdaq up by a third of 1%. the market up by more than 11% from the lows of june 16. have we seen the lows? two things matter.

maybe we haven't seen sufficient cuts to estimates to say with any confidence or conviction that we have seen the lows of this equity market. on the federal reserve yesterday, like a coiled spring going into fed speak. two year yields came up. this is what they look like now. up 30 basis points. what has happened with the curve? two's and tends. -- and tens. tom, you have to go all the way back to the early 2000s to see this curve this flat and this inverted. tom: i'm going to say it as clear as i can, q3 early, it is not only that we are here at -32

and houck -- it is how quickly we got here. jonathan: lisa, we are getting closer and closer. lisa: less than 10 basis points away and that is the road to travel. they move away from the front-end because the fed has to do a lot more in the eyes of so many. jonathan: the work is not done according to fed officials. tom: november is as important as september. futures again up 15 and the vix, 23 point 51 signals the trading range as we await the jobs report on friday. we need to recalibrate on equities. linda joins us now, senior equity certain just -- senior equity strategist. what that does signal is that you came out of high school and you had a lot of experience looking at how you participate, trying to figure out when the bottom -- where the bottom is.

nasdaq a more painful -22%. you've got to participate. how do you participate, not knowing where the bottom is? linda: i have been around a long time, and i can't help but continue to think that we may be in the 70's again and if i am right about that, we had that long period of malaise, about 10 years when we saw peak inflation three times, so to think that we are done with this is silly. we at federated hermes suggest we will probably begin a wide range malaise for the next 18 months. we would not be per discipline -- we would not be particularly aggressive at this point. tom: you can't be 100% in cash, so what do you go into? are you suggesting the same we

have heard the last couple of days which is quality and persistency of the only things that matter? linda: that is often what matters unless you are in a momentum market, which we are not. when you see pockets of the market getting hot or racing, then you have a chance to adjust and this is a nice market for traders. what you have seen is it is very strong and you see money going back into small-cap and growth. these two areas of the market had been pummeled. it has been kind of a trading range and what i think of the wise thing to do is to continue to look for quality yield, get yourself paid if you don't want to be a traitor. look for quality income when you can find it. that is where we are right now. value and defensive value.

jonathan: what business does consumer discretionary have rallying against the weakness many people are anticipating? linda: it doesn't and it goes to the trading range we are in and the market that says i want to buy the dip. there is simply too much out there sloshing around, looking at what is next and i travel for my job and speak to a lot of investors and they say tell me what to buy. this sounds look very afraid group of investors well at the same time, the bloomberg count for stories looking at recession is at the highs we have not seen since the lockdown. lisa: so we are gloomy, portraying the worries but not the action of investors as well as consumers. the view forward you have is different from other people, in terms of going back to the 1970's.

it still won't be enough and you will see inflation remain higher than they would like for even longer. how do you participate in that into what is supposed to be safe? this is not give people confidence to go into the long end of the year cooked -- the yield curve. how does that translate into the equity world in terms of safety? linda: as the 10 year bond goes, you finished it 3.25% so if you can get a 3% or, the head of our bond department is suggesting to me that by the end of this year, you may get 3% on the shortest term money, so we are suggesting stay in the short end and we are not happy at all with investing in credit right now on the bond side. lisa: where are the safe spots? is it tech or big oil? where are you seeing this sense of balance -- ballast?

linda: we still like energy very much, we still believe that the dynamics even though this could go into a recession, we think the dynamics are very strong, and big tech stocks, the big growing stocks that gush cash flow probably still will so you are getting more into that range again, where they are starting to look impressive. tom: we've got to advance this further. you are remarkably cautious, cautious for the optimism i have seen over the decades at federated hermes. if that is the case and you say this is the dismal 1970's, what to the other stocks do that don't have that persistent free cash flow? are you talking single digit

multiples? are you talking a blended sub 15 pe multiple? linda: we would not go that far. we still think the economy is reasonably strong. we did all the damage this year. the pe multiples look pretty good right now. what we are suggesting in a malaise situation which has something to do with it, it is not terrible but we should just temper our expectations for returns. tempering can get you back to where you would say if i get an 8% return for the whole year, that would be a good year. that is the kind of thing to look at. not crushing earnings. we are near record earnings. we are still near record cash with a job market that is as tight as a drum which means we are probably going to see continued strength but i want to make this comment, which is

consumer confidence of the more well-to-do income segments is below that of the less well-to-do. that is a rarity and you generally only see that when you are going to go into recession, which is not what we are calling for, i am just saying. jonathan: linda duessel, thank you very much for your comments. payrolls on friday which will still show strong data and ultimately the fed is going to have to go big again in september. tom: but they are from two different worlds. i can honestly say i've never seen a harking back to the 70's like that in years. you go back to the dismal 1970's, i didn't hear her saying this is the dismal 20's. i'm thinking back like, the songs of the time. the dismal 1970's. jonathan: is there something you want to share?

tom: she was as bright as the sun on the california coast. she looked at him with those soft eyes so innocent and blue. jonathan: are you serenading me? tom: what depresses me is how many people younger have no idea about -- bob seeger defined the dismal 1970's. it wasn't olivia newton whatever her name was. jonathan: i'm going to rescue this segment. tom: great note. jonathan: much better than expected results for corporate earnings and support of any coming economic downturn is likely to be short and shallow. going forward, it also tells us that the rally in stocks is fragile given the possibility of further downward earnings. different people talking about the exact same thing. tom: there are a lot of

different opinions out there. what i'm watching here, the people with the very cautious equity view, do they start migrating upward because of the resilience that we have seen in revenue? jonathan: did they get crowded in? this is going to crowd some investors in, and the short-term. lisa: in the short-term. how much does this mean that in the longer-term, people, sector spending or the travel sector or the balance sheet of the households. take a look at the savings rate, it has plummeted. at what point does that start to bleed into retail sales more than we have seen and into the forward projections? jonathan: nord stream 1 is running at reduced capacity. you got the russian side saying this is about turbines and servicing turbines.

on twitter 10 minutes ago. i sought with my own eyes. the service turbine is there and ready for operation at any time. it has to be requested by russia. there are no technical reasons for reducing gas supply. tom: was it just a photo op? i will put that out on twitter. jonathan: futures positive a third of 1%. coming up, the atlantic council may or may not be joining us. ritika: keeping you up-to-date with newsom around the world, i am ritika gupta -- with news from around the world, i am ritika gupta. nancy pelosi spoke with taiwan fleet or and she is now on her way to south korea. china has strongly protested pelosi's trip, she is the highest-ranking u.s. official visit in a quarter-century.

to retaliate, china will conduct military drills around the island and restricting some trade with taiwan. traders are waiting to hear if opec-plus will increase oil supplies. they are meeting virtually and it is more likely to keep output steady in september. in turkey, it may be months away from peeking. the central bank is dealing with -- the rising consumer prices have already forced economists to rewrite forecasts multiple times this year. -- would have to effectively close. that would put the transport of large quantities of goods at risk. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta, this is

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>> we are seeing demand destruction across the board. policy in china could reverse in the fall but the charts don't lie. we are continuing to be neutral on energy. jonathan: that was mike wilson of morgan stanley. good morning. tom keene, lisa abramowicz and jonathan ferro. futures positive. yields high yesterday by 18 basis points on a two-year.

everyone lying up -- lining up to say this and then the markets responded like they were surprised. if you like the fed speak, you get more of it today. harker, daily, that is your lineup for today. tom: we have to stop here. i thought forward guidance was dead. we did we get that memo -- didn't we get that memo? jonathan: just reestablish the reaction function. based on what happened with markets over the last week, easing of financial conditions, we had guest after guest saying this is an unprecedented easing of conditions. this tweet, speaker pelosi has left taiwan. this is what they have to say. it is fair to assume that the

charters of china -- have gone considerably lower. he goes on to say without china you don't have india and without either, you don't have any emerging nation. some people might go on to say without any of that, you don't have an oil price cap on russia. tom: as we mentioned with annmarie hordern, she saw the washington post, the beginning of criticisms of pelosi's trip. we will have much more on that, particularly as speaker pelosi goes to south korea. ellen wald with us, senior fellow at the atlantic council. i have been humbled by this over the years. we gained supply dynamics and we gained demand dynamics of oil and we get one or both or all wrong. how great is the mystery right now of supply and demand? ellen: it really is a big question because there are

considerations in terms of whether we will see a recession and how deep that will go. as we remember back to 2008, there was a huge drop in oil prices that even necessitated opec taking some very significant action when the recession hit. we could definitely see something like that, but the jury is still out on whether we see that or whether we continue to see strong demand, separate from so much pent up pandemic demand. tom: your job is not to model brent crude, that is not the ellen wald act but you could talk about the power of the players. in opec-plus, what is the power this morning of saudi arabia? ellen: saudi arabia definitely has the upper hand, though because they are in this larger opec-plus group, you really

can't exclude russia and the uae as the other really big important players right now. it is really going to be about not just what they want but also how they see the market, especially for the opec players, they are really very much into their assessment of where they see the markets and do they think we are in a supply shortage or do they foresee a supply shortage emerging between now and the end of the year? that could trigger them to do some sort of modest increase in production quotas. the question arises, will we actually see any output increases because so many of the opec players are capped out? lisa: how much more can they increase output at this point? ellen: if you look at saudi arabia, which has the most spare capacity, they are producing either 10.5 million or 10.6 5

million barrels a day depending on whether you believe the saudi reports over an external source. starting in august, their quota is up to 11 million barrels a day that is not something that they have regularly produced ever. i think we have seen them hit that mark twice. once we saw them hit 12 million barrels, it is not a rate that they are comfortable producing at, particularly because they are focused on the long-term health of their reservoirs. i think we could see saudi arabia increase a little bit but i would not expect to see 11 million barrels a day from them anytime soon. lisa: perhaps this meeting will be 12 minutes or 14 minutes long as they make some decisions. i wonder if they have any assessment of how much demand has been destroyed in the face of higher prices versus the ongoing requirements that people have to get around and the demand for travel. ellen: i think the demand for

travel this summer and the fact that people made a lot of plans is potentially masking some of the demand destruction we might be seeing from the higher prices. inflation is really starting to bite, especially in the u.s.. it is going to bite more in europe as well. i think we will see opec looking at that and looking at signs for demand destruction as the summer travel season winds down and across the u.s.. many schools are starting up and that signals the end of the big demand season. of course then they have a look at china and india which is the big emerging player in the demand picture and whether or not inflation is biting. jonathan: ellen, awesome to hear from you. ellen wald of the atlantic council. just to guide you through this morning or this afternoon over in vienna, 1:00 p.m. local time is when the monitoring committee

meeting is. opec-plus will meet about 13 minutes later. the main events have so many people, after that meeting between the crown prince and the president of the united states. will joe biden get anything whatsoever? tom: this is well said. is that the dominant theme or is that a sideshow? i would suggest because of europe, what we saw with the photo op, all of a sudden, maybe the biden discussion is secondary. jonathan: i would say the regional buyers from this perspective, i have to say you would have to be looking at the recession story that is emerging worldwide. china has difficulties. europe is suffering. the united states in the minds of many people is heading in the wrong direction. could you see a deceleration in demand? lisa: that is what i'm curious

about. if they emphasize that, the slow down, could that basically be an indication of just what you are saying? they don't want to release all of their supplies in a time of cooling growth. jonathan: as they monitor the opec-plus. tom: we were supposed to be there, weren't we? jonathan: you thought we should be there. i don't know if anyone else shared that. the 12 minutes thing drives me nuts. 12 minutes to have a meeting. tom: we each get four meetings -- four minutes. jonathan: what are you actually discussing? lisa: the world and oil. jonathan: up a third of 1% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the fed had articulated a focus on growth. we know they are not there yet. >> inflation is still rising. >> they want to create slack in the economy without causing a recession. >> the view is the federal remain aggressive in trying to curb inflation and as a result increase recession risk. >> i think they want to