>> the fed had articulated a focus on growth. we know they are not there yet. >> inflation is still rising. >> they want to create slack in the economy without causing a recession. >> the view is the federal remain aggressive in trying to curb inflation and as a result increase recession risk. >> i think they want to be

really cautious about pivoting too soon. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this hour comes with a warning, tom has been singing repeatedly the last 60 minutes. live from new york, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. a push back after fed speakers yesterday. tom: the pushback is there, and all of it is leading into it matters, jobs day on friday. regardless of the jolt survey, i think it is way more important than what fed speakers are going to say. jonathan: in looking at 250,000, step down from the last month with the previous number 372. tom: when i got in this morning at 5:52, i really emphasized that the jobs number is way

above normal. we are miles from normal nonfarm payroll report. jonathan: with job openings yesterday, things are starting to happen the labor market the way they were not last year. lisa: we are hearing it and from companies. they are pulling back, they are not expecting to be as ambitious in their expansion. yes, you have team resilience in some earnings, but one note really highlights, have companies really adapted to what is to come? i point to under armour coming out, cutting their full year forecast this and next year and the anticipation of that weakness. jonathan: we have not ripped off the band-aid. i think that was the line this morning. lisa: how much is that the case? others would push back and say, you are still seeing resilience. marist came out and said they see a beacon in the u.s. because of people continuing to spend.

tom: you cannot inflate a cash flow monster like marist with all the challenges at under armour. there was a whole group of stocks out there that were in trouble before this mess, and they are still troubled into and adapting. they are not all peloton. i get that, but there is a group of stocks that cannot be conflated in with power players like marist. jonathan: consumer discretionary, tom, on that part of the market, those companies will have a difficult time if this economy plays out in a way so many people anticipate it will. tom: am i going away lululemon or under armour? jonathan: lululemon have a great of sneakers for women. i like to see them do it from an, too. they sleek. tom: idea, too. jonathan: i noticed that recently. tom: i'm not going give object purcell -- give up purcell's. lisa: i am picturing you both in yoga pants and it is splintering. jonathan: it is very relaxing. tom: we have seen ferro and me

in lululemon. are all three of us together for jobs day? that's good. jonathan: once went into the gym and i saw him working out. lisa: was he wearing lululemon? jonathan: weights everywhere. lisa: i'm not surprised. jonathan: anyway, that is a story for another day. futures right now -- tom: or the next hour. jonathan: on the next day. up .4. yields climbing by two basis points. yesterday, the two year yield of more than 18 basis points. crew this morning, down. let's call it 50. lisa: we are not in vienna, but if we were, we we are tracking that opec meeting -- we would be tracking that opec meeting. you said how much of the going give a nod to president biden? the meeting with saudi arabia was successful, that they got what they wanted, the u.s., in

terms of increased output. my question, how much can these oil producers increase production at a time when they are bumping up against their peak? 10:00 a.m., u.s. ism service index the month of july. how much do we see an ongoing softening in the service sector that is supposed to be rebounding? this is supposed to be the rotation from goods to services? we have seen the rotation away from goods, but even services is showing signs of pulling back. we saw that with certain travel stocks coming off their high is because there was a weakening in the underpinning data as people pull back on discretionary spending. we are getting a lot of earnings but also a host of fed speak. we will hear from patrick harper, mary daly, all of them coming out to talk about this, does it make sense to see the point to yield curve going down to the most inverted to the year 2000? does it make sense the market was pushing back against the idea of rate hikes to the extent

they were a couple of months ago? given that we are expecting a .8% next week on the cpi? inflation may be coming down, but to what and how quickly? jonathan: and it will remain punchy, according to estimates. thank you. the data, the meetings, kristin bailey -- kristen joins us now. we have shifted to are fully invested portfolio since the first quarter of 2020. what does that mean? kristen: what we have said the past months is really looking at where we can go from here, and there are three different scenarios we can see. robust, resilient, or a recessionary scenario. i don't think anyone is really calling for robust. right now we have a 50-50 chance in terms of tipping over into a true recession, not technical, or seen that resilient slowing growth environment.

we want to prepare for folios for both, so the changes we made in terms of investing in high-quality equity, we have been there all along here today starting q3 last year, and upping our fixed income portfolios and pulled back on commodity and energy positions due to the fact we are seeing inflationary pressures of eight, and that was more in our portfolios for hedging purposes than any type of long hung. tom: you are so good on the income statement. what did you learn about margin dynamics? i believe we have 70 x percent of earnings in right now. what did you learn about what we need to study down the income statement? kristen: what we need to look at going into the end of q2 earnings and q3 earnings, i think when we look at the rally we saw in july, a lot of people pointed to a potential fed pivot, some dovish comments. i don't think that is it at all. i think earnings show from resiliency that was not

anticipated. tom: where was it on the income statement? i get the earnings were there and we chat up revenues, but was this about growth margin or dynamics? where was operating income on the income statement? kristen: it was a top line revenue. when you look at the top line revenue growth we saw, i think that was surprising because everyone -- tom: totally agree. kristen: you are looking at consumer spending. consumer spending is 65% of gdp, and we were trying to look for >> and the consumer backdrop in q2. -- look for cracks in the consumer backdrop in q2. everything came out better than. when they came to the consumer. the only cracks were in mass market retailers like walmart and best buy. we saw commentary there in terms of shifting consumer patterns. this is why when you look at how we are allocated, we want to prepare for two different situations, resilient or

recession because of consumers are shifting spending patterns and pulling away from services, if we see that dynamic over the summer that was to prevent spending, traveling, getting that out in the system, and now they are preparing for a recession, along with companies preparing for a recession, that will flow through to earnings, and we will see some estimates from here. jonathan: we hear the phrase data dependency over time, what is your data dependency as you gauge whether there is a broadening out in that weakness of consumer spending that we saw anecdotally in the walmarts and targets, but not that much elsewhere? kristen: i think what we are going to have to look at is really some of the data -- so take inflation. i think what people can agree upon now is growth is slowing, court inflation is proving persistent, but headline inflation is slowing on energy prices, so i think is tight rope walk we are going to have is on the sense that some people, the more resilient are pointing to

commodity prices coming over, gasoline prices coming down, but i think you still have the shelter cost and the housing affordability that has deteriorated substantially. that balance that the average consumer is walking through, i think you can see spending patterns and credit cards, overall consumer patterns there, and then looking through in terms of inflation dynamics we are facing, and whether some of that court inflation is stickier than expected. jonathan: super cautious, kristen bitterly. speaker pelosi left one, heading to seoul. a couple of people said her visit may be taiwan's problem. here is one, the taiwan transfer ministry said all flights inside and out would use alternative routes. here's another headline from the digital minister out of taiwan, commenting on cyberattacks at a briefing.

they strengthened security for key infrastructure. just some headlines coming through at the moment. tom: i guess those are expected. i think the geography is trying to see what is immovable, but to me it is sequential. it has got to be, as i mentioned at the top of the show, i think i was here for that, is the basic idea of how to see meet with president biden? how to see play a meeting with biden back with the domestic challenges of china? jonathan: i confirm that you were here. tom: was i? jonathan: just about. tom: i was celebratory last night over the padres. jonathan: to tom's point, to put that meeting together face-to-face, in person, it gets harder after yesterday. lisa: one to how much they knew this would all happen? how much this was basically the conversation they had last week because of people start to talk about it, they start to have a more and more contentious tenor

to a given some communications, the most contentious in years between the u.s. and china. jonathan: we will guide you through the latest headlines and opec-plus. that meeting just started, according to delegates. will review the headlines as they come through on this day in vienna with the opec-plus meeting some speculate whether we get a plus output boost. it is opec wednesday, tom. i know you are excited. it will only last 15 minutes. futures of .5. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up to date. nancy pelosi has ended her trip to taiwan after watching the u.s. would not abandon it. the house speaker reaffirmed american support for the democratically elected government in taipei, despite more threats from china. beijing announced military drills to protest the visit and china announced trade sanctions on taiwan.

they are pushing back against the idea that policymakers may pivot from tightening. four fed district highlighted in the marks on tuesday that there is no sign that inflation is easing, and that triggered what is a surge in treasury yields. voters in kansas refused to change the state's constitution to the clear there is no right to an abortion. it was the first referendum on abortion since the supreme court said each state can set its own policy, and voter turnout was high. four other states will hold similar votes in november. over in the u.k., the extended lead, suggesting she is on track to secede boris johnson as prime minister. the poll show that the foreign secretary had a 34 point lead, a boost for the campaign. earlier tuesday, there was an embarrassing you turn on the plan to align civil service pay to reduce cost of living. and for a second quarter profit, cvs raised its outlook for the

full year. they saw growth across pharmacy retail and insurance division, helped by sales of over-the-counter covid tests. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at quicktake on bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> united states does not and

will not seek a crisis. we are prepared to manage beijing chooses to do. at the same time, we will not engage. we will continue to operate in the season skies of the western pacific as we have done for decades. jonathan: john kirby, spokesperson for the u.s. security council following speaker pelosi's visit to taiwan. with tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. futures are positive, up .5 on the s&p 500, and nasdaq. yields creeping higher by two basis points, stronger euro. euro-dollar, and a look out below, crude down about .4, 94 dollars. the opec-plus meeting, tom, rhett vienna, starting at about 11 minutes time. tom: i know, and it will be 12 minutes long. there will be four minute coverage. jonathan: i joke about it, but whenever we speak to them, i find it infuriating.

given what is going on in the global economy, the energy crisis hits so many parts of the world, and they get together and have a escutcheon that last 15 minutes? tom: they have the same pr people as i have. jonathan:jonathan: i think it is ridiculous. tom: we will continue to monitor that seriously, and again, our team just doing a great job covering these dynamics. right now, annmarie hordern joins us. speaker pelosi after tokyo will fly back, and perhaps will have to do a fly around kansas. extraordinary election results last night. and what it is about is what put aydin in office, which is turnout -- put biden in office, which is turnout. all of a sudden, there will be lots of stories on turnout. brief us on how important turnout is for both parties. annmarie: it was huge last night for kansas. when you look across the primary map, and it was not any

individual candidate that stole the show, it was this referendum in kansas about whether or not there should be amendments to the constitution, which would give the lawmakers in that state the ability to either restrict or ban abortion. overwhelmingly, individuals in kansas came out and said no. this is a state that the former president trump led by 15 points, so, as you say, there will be a lot of momentum for the democrats to say, abortion is a live issue for midterm elections on the 2024 resident election. tom: what will people turnout for someone as ancient as biden and trump? how does turnout play into the gamesmanship for 2024? annmarie: i think if you look at it based on issues, these individuals came out like it was a november election to vote on a specific issue. if the democrats or republicans are able to harness an issue and attack their candidates

potentially, but what you are talking about here is these two individuals, c theya get the fanfare of people to come outn? they want to see a shakeup and younger generation. lisa: harnessing an issue, one has been gasoline prices, in addition to the abortion issue, very much bringing people to the polls. we are going to be hearing, after what we assume will be a short meeting for opec-plus, but their decision will be about output. what does this president want to see after making that visit, making those outreaches to the kingdom, and now expecting something in return? annmarie: the president said when he was in jeddah, that the saudi shared his urgency, and he expects more oil to come on the market in the coming weeks. this is not coming week. this is the opec meeting, august 3. while really everyone is expecting this status quo to maintain, if you look at the bloomberg survey, some potentially say a modest

increase. the white house would view a modest increase as a win because when you look at the global oil supply, there is not much their capacity left. even if the saudi's are able to pump a little bit more, this would be a win little white house. they were just need to explain the dynamics to the american people that they do not have intentionally a whole lot to give, and you do not want them going tonight's capacity because second low back -- going to max capacity because that could low back. that is what they will have to play in terms of messaging. if there was nothing out of this meeting, potentially, that would be harnessed by the republican saying it was a failed meeting of the president owing to the kingdom. but we should know. we have seen riyadh over the past two months incrementally start to increase production, so there already has been some goodwill outreach from this meeting for the president. lisa: you covered opec for years. why the meetings so short? annmarie: that's a great question because i've been to meetings where they have extended into days and weekends

where i have been us can vienna. tom: you milked that. annmarie: the expenses were pretty good, too. what i would say is no one is reaching their quotas, right? you have a number of countries central to opec not being able to hit their targets. they pretty much come in, where everyone stands. there is no major issue at play that are huge debates besides whether or not saudi arabia or the ua is going to pump or. a lot of this -- pump more. a lot of this is a great behind-the-scenes and at the highest level of the kingdom and russia. russia is going to be a difficult one for the saudis. they need to make sure they keep brush on board with the alliance. russia does not want lower prices. they are already selling crude at discount. they need to keep it as high as possible for maximum profit. jonathan: you cannot talk about expenses live on air, it's not the way forward. thank you. tom can say things i just cannot say. he called the former president

the current president ancient, can you imagine what would happen if i said that? lisa: why do you want me to weigh in on this? tom: i think this is a valid issue. and greg mentioned there, mike allen. jonathan: i agree. tom: it is worth talking about. jonathan: could not agree more. do you know what? i love having you unleashed on bloomberg opinion. at the current rate, i fear that president joe biden consumed more jet fuel traveling on jet fuel traveling to jeddah than in september. the opec+ meeting starts in about five minutes. tom: but this is not the topic at hand. what matters is -- i'm sorry, folks, i don't have it in front of me -- someone is going after taylor swift living the summer on a private jet. jonathan: i saw that, biggest polluter on private jets. tom: and they call it sweetener like jet guild or something. lisa: she lends it out to

friends, though. this is taylorgate. jonathan: the friends don't fly commercial either, they fly the private jet. tom: and i keep careful track of this with the surveillance gulfstream. francine is on the case. jonathan: are they 20 minute flights? really short flights, up and down. tom: teterboro is teterboro. lisa: you are asking because he is flight tracker on one side. jonathan: it is going to disrupt my commercial flight. go away. if it jets to friends, what's the point? tom: at least the carbon footprint is birkenstocks. jonathan: it is all lisa's fault. it always is. futures up .5. do what you like for your friends. ♪

jonathan: equities from 1% on the s&p this morning. the nasdaq up .6%. a long list of people lining up to thomas that we may not have seen on the lows because we have not seen the cut to estimates.

recession is the story on the horizon but everyone is saying earnings have not been cut enough. tom: we will get to this with mike schumacher in a moment. i'm sorry, but we are missing with our american focus, europe is a mess, a marginal basis, is messier than a week ago, a quarter ago. jonathan: that dispute between russia and what will happen with that gasturbine. twitter effectively saying that the turbines are ready to go, the russians are just not asking for it. tom: part of it is the calendar. it is august, closer to november than july. jonathan: getting closer to the end of the year when it starts to get colder. the bond market very frustrated

with this. the two year yield coming in all the way up to fed speak. every guest said they would have to push back. this market was surprised. 18 basis points higher on the two-year. much more fed speak today. the spread between twos intends are inverted. back to levels we have not seen since the early 2000's. going into the opec-plus meeting . finished perhaps already. wti back to 94. someone message me moments ago saying maybe phil mickelson could get the saudi to pump more. golf joke. phil's relationship with the saudi's. let's get to lisa. lisa: let's look at some of the earnings.

they show a very differentiated backdrop depending on which company you look at. cvs health beat estimates because of covid-19 tests. increased revenues because they are selling so many tests. shares up 3.6%. starbucks reported after the bell yesterday that beat expectations. people are buying more, at least the overall amount. part of this, they increase prices 5% over the year. airbnb missed expectations. their forecast is not that optimistic. is this a story of weakening demand by consumers for travel or is this a story of the world righting itself, going from a pandemic era, where people could travel forever, and now having

to come home? elliott management taking a stake in paypal. they are looking for some sort of way to right size a company. tom: this is a good news story for paypal, right? lisa: the activists taking a stake, asking for cuts, and the market is cheering them. the market is also cheering under armour after coming out with weaker than expected earnings, seeing some resilience in the u.s., but weakness in china. yum! brands, i know that you have very close feelings, the parent company of kfc, pizza hut, which did not do so well. taco bell did do well. tom: driving the conversation forward, kristin emails in, love

the blog seeker -- bob seeger. jonathan: we are not doing this. lisa: i don't know where you thought i was traveling, but people were asking me, how was kathmandu, the himalayan mountains? tom: thank you so much for driving the conversation forward. michael shoemaker with us, global head of macro strategy at wells fargo. buried in your note is something to watch for august. italian-german spreads. your team says this is a monitor on europe that could go back to the fed and united states. mike: we see that spread going out quite a bit. i know the ecb has introduced a new program to combat it. let's say the 10 year italy goes

300 basis points over germany. i think that marks a crisis. tom: absolutely critical. right now, all of a sudden it matters. jonathan: getting a headlight around opec-plus they are considering a 100,000 barrel a day increase, and that is a drop in the ocean. wti up .75% on these headlines. lisa: just an all-out branch to this administration. we heard you, we are taking actions, but it has no bearings on a market. jonathan: i think they wanted more than this. lisa: maybe so but what can they do? to anne-marie's point, they cannot increase. it is unclear how much that

would even affect gas prices considering it's a refinery issue more than just a crude one. jonathan: we joke about how long this opec meeting may go on for. it could be over in five minutes time. mike schumacher is still with us. forgive me for that, i wanted to bring the audience the news. fed speak into next week, cpi. you came out, and you said 1.50 on the two-year. we got there so quickly. how much work do you think this fed still needs to do to get inflation down from nine back toward 2? mike: it's amazing to say it, inflation at 9%. the fed has a lot of work yet to do. we think inflation will be running at 4 plus in core at the end of the year.

by the end of the quarter, pushing 2.5, three into next year. a lot of work to be done. we think the two-year goes up substantially from here. i think the fed has been trying to reset saying we didn't have it. you may have thought so but we didn't. lisa: does jay powell have a communication problem considering this is not the first time that he sent a message that is different than what the market wanted to hear? mike: i think for jay powell being hawkish, it is like taking cop sharp -- cough syrup when you have a cold. you do it, you don't really want to do it. i will go out and talk about it but my heart is not really in it. lisa: how important is it for this market to see him actually buy into a message that the fed has to raise rates significantly before they believe the story that right now they are

rejecting. everyone says the fed hates to see the rally, they will push back, the markets are oblivious. the fed pushes back, the market drops their hands. how much do you have to see before the market believes the hawkish tilt that the fed is saying? mike: i think what the market need to see is more tightening, not 75 after 75, but a steady stream of 50's would probably do it. he said they would go meeting by meeting, offering guidance right now. i think the market needs to see those actual rate hikes. go another 50 or 75 in september, set the stage for the end of the year. by the way, if the fed were to indicate we are not done tightening this year, it will extend all well into 23, that would catch a lot of people off guard. there is a view that tightening will end in december and then by march, using mode.

that seems unrealistic. jonathan: are you over at hudson yards right now? mike: great place. come down and see it. jonathan: who is downtown anymore apart from goldman? deutsche bank taking over the time warner center. tom: like anything else, and the building of these things, they are there, then they get a critical mass, boom. i wonder if this is the year after the pandemic that hudson yards gets a boom. jonathan: midtown west is stacked. i cannot think of many names downtown other than goldman. lisa: i was doing some research and i cannot find a lot of that. i wonder how many people go to the floor of the new york stock exchange anymore. jonathan: i have heard it is a

tv studio now. it is just a joke. let me get back to opec-plus. the team at bloomberg on the commodity side is fantastic. they said if they deliver a 100,000 barrel a day increase share prorata, it would raise the target by 26,000 barrels a day. that is not even enough to fill one tanker a month. a great way of breaking that down. tom: it gets down to the process involved. it is not financial intangibles. these are all tangible assets. jonathan: it is a nice tv studio. anyway. futures up .4 on the s&p. tom: people emailing in like crazy.

coventry theater. i believe some of the ferro clan was there. jonathan: remember half the family was incessantly down in the mines. futures are higher. it's a great day for it. an opec-plus meeting wrapping up soon. this is bloomberg. ritika: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm ritika gupta. nancy pelosi has reaffirmed the u.s. commitment to taiwan. house speaker ended her visit after pledging the u.s. would not abandon its commitment to the democratically elected government. china reacted by announcing a series of military exercises. beijing also imposed trade sanctions on taiwan. the coalition -- at today's

virtual meeting. it would be a small hike, 100,000 barrels in september, after president biden visited saudi arabia to ask for more oil to be pumped. in turkey, inflation was almost 80% in july. the central bank is sticking with its ultra-loose monetary course. it has already forced economists to rewrite forecasts multiple times this year. france is likely to curb some nuclear power energy. the reductions threatened to push up our prices which are close to record levels in france and germany. under armour has cut its forecast for the year. they are being hurt by higher freight and production costs. investors also concerned about the outlook for asia. meanwhile, they are looking for

a ceo to replace the one who quit in may. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg.

>> we don't talk about recession per se. is it army growing about were below trend? my forecast this year is that we will be growing below trend, but that is necessary in order to get price increases, inflation under control. jonathan: that was loretta mester of the cleveland fed. she was speaking with the washington post, pushing back against these dovish expectations after chairman tells news conference. communication failure or

interpretation failure? one or the other. you should not get to your yields moving the way they have. tom: or the five-year. jonathan: the nasdaq up .4. yields creeping up higher a few basis points. crude reverses losses, gaining by .9%. that meeting has just started, according to a delegate. the opec ministerial meeting has started. set a stopwatch. tom: maybe it will last as long as kriti gupta's chart that she is showing us now. >> you were talking about the two year yield and five year yield. yesterday's move in the 10-year yield was the second-largest since we saw the covid crash in 2020. it only rivals when the bond

market was pricing in 75 basis points ahead of the june fomc meeting. that repricing is crucial, what you are seeing in this particular index. this measures bond volatility which has been on an uptrend since 2020, close to levels that we saw in march 2020. there is still a significant gap between what the market is pricing for the end of next year and the fed's projections. when you have that kind of cap come it means these swings are more, because repricing happens daily. tom: we have ignored fixed income. ira jersey joins us. when i see the five-years do what it did yesterday, that the minimum, i know that is unusual.

why are we seeing these gyrations? ira: two things. number one is misinterpretation of the federal reserve, or the communication from powell was reversed with all of the fed speakers basically all saying we are going to be more hawkish than the market thinks right now. into that you have not only some liquidity but for liquidity overall. liquidity in the treasury market has been very poor since the federal reserve stepped back from its bond buying purchases. it doesn't seem like liquidity will increase anytime soon. tom: is china stepping back, particularly with tensions we've seen in the recent weeks, can they step back and adjust our fixed income space? sam: unlikely. most central banks, when they own treasury securities, they

usually own short-term securities. may be some of the front and moves may come from central banks either not buying or outright selling, although they just let their portfolio runoff instead of outright selling securities. china and japan had not been that buyers of treasuries for seven years now. it is not like they've been increasing the amount of treasuries they own. the market has gotten so much bigger. they are not as big of a player as they used to be. our foreign private investors tend to be much more risk takers. the question is are they stepping back in an environment where yields in their home jurisdictions, like germany, are positive now, where they had been negative for several years? lisa: you are talking about the poor liquidity and the pricing

which is historic. the rally we saw in the -- the selloff we saw in the 10 year treasury was the fourth biggest in the past five years. what does that say in terms of the risk being baked into markets? what is the potential consequence from the deepest and most liquid market being not very deep and not very liquid? sam: it is still very deep and liquid but it is relative to the size. things like that repurchase agreement market, the way that you find your treasury positions , that has not grown. the treasury market is significantly larger. 2007, the repurchase market is basically the same size but the treasury market is five times larger. you can see how the plumbing will be affected by regulations, the fact that you have dealers that are not willing to take as much risk as they used to

because of regulations and their own risk management processes after the global financial crisis. all of these things have contributed -- basically liquidity being good and then not. i call it fickle liquidity. i've been writing about this for nine years now. it is not surprising that we have days like yesterday where liquidity is fine on monday and then suddenly on tuesday there is no liquidity. that is the risk in these treasury markets. the quiddity completely dries up because everyone is one way and positioning cannot shift so quickly. i think it will happen more and more, a fact of life going forward. jonathan: ira jersey, thank you. we have to pick up on the story out of vienna. the opec-plus meeting started about seven minutes ago.

we understand they are considering just a 100,000 barrel a day increase. the team at bloomberg has put together a live blog, and they have called it a negligible increase. great smith highlighting, the saudi energy minister prince is fond of springing last-minute surprises on the market. that is the direction of travel right now. up 1% on wti. tom: 101.39 on brent crude. the gap between the two has narrowed here. you wonder many people are looking at 110, 120 again, and i think that is a lonely crowd. jonathan: it couldn't get smaller without being a cut. lisa: great smith goes on to say, president biden said he was

confident of further steps from the saudi's, but this is like a moving walkway at the airport. how much of this is a courtesy that will not be received well? how much is this a capacity constraint versus, we don't need to raise output but there you go. jonathan: 100,000 barrel hike for september. tom: you wonder what it will do to commodities in general. i would look for metals to move, but hydrocarbons, it has been a lift. jonathan: we will pick up on this story in just a bit. futures up, crewed up, too.

at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward. so you can enjoy more of...this. this is the planning effect.

this is xfinity rewards. so you can enjoy more of...this. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.

so many people are overweight now and asking themselves, "why can't i lose weight?" for most, the reason is insulin resistance, and they don't even know they have it. conventional starvation diets don't address insulin resistance. that's why they don't work. now, there's golo. golo helps with insulin resistance, getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating, and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's g-o-l-o.com.

>> the conditions are changing where you just