dani: this is "bloomberg

daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in europe, back with manus cranny in dubai. manus: a high-risk milestone, china fires missiles over taiwan as beijing continues to express dismay at u.s. house speakers contentious visit. bailey and the r word. the bank of england governor warns the u.k. to brace for contraction and unrelenting inflation. elon musk sees inflation trending lower. good morning, back to breaking news. welcome back. there is no rest for the wicked, we are talking about 24 billion in revenues, the smart beat.

you've got the headlines. some things never change. you have the allianz numbers. dani: second quarter operating profit, a beat, 3.5 billion euros. on a headline basis, it is interesting to look in some of the businesses we are looking at for example, asset management, profit is weaker. 771 million euros, the estimate was 778. there is concern about volatility, that is weighing on allianz. we are looking at life and health operation profit, slightly weaker. another area that could take a hit. second quarter operating profit is a beat on the headline level.

manus: i want to know what happened to pimco. richard clarida back to pimco, so they will get an edgy track for them. the outflows horrendous in the last round. we will keep a track on those. we have big interviews through the morning. dani: we certainly do. allianz, as you mentioned. giulio terzariol, and mark reed to mention a few. manus: welcome back. we did not break anything while you are away. apart from the patience of equity traders. let's look at the bond market. you get the deepest inversion since 2000, dropping 2.68%. we are committed to getting

inflation down. 75 basis points is not unreasonable in terms of looking at the september hike. oil is up. cable, how do you get an fx trader to go head-to-head with the bank of england? tell us the currency is not in crisis. ubs trash their outlook. there is more activity in china. dani: some of the volatility, it is a stark contrast to what is happening in the equity market. local equities on track for the third weekly advance in a row. that is a recovery from the bear market lows. i wanted to flag the ftse 100 futures, weaker. they were weaker yesterday with the boe decision.

s&p 500 futures responding calmly to this report that democrats are considering adding a stock buyback tax. perhaps that is more of a bargaining chip. nasdaq futures up. up 20% from last month's bottom. manus: we have had a riproaring rally. hsbc saying cache me up, baby. let's talk to reporters around the world. lizzy burden is at the bank of england yesterday to pass on commentary from the boe. the latest on the swiss bonds. dani: we have juliette saly from singapore on the market reaction in asia to break down the u.s. jobs report. manus: the bank of england says u.k. will have a retracted

recession after raising 50 basis points, the biggest increase in seven years. >> we will get inflation back to target, no question about that. that is my message. of course, it is very hard. we are much more affected by inflation which is concentrated in energy particularly. if we do not get it under control, it will get worse, and we will have to raise interest rates more. manus: let's get to lizzy burden, she has been tracking the news. if we listen to bailey, it is about acting now and taking pain and medicine now because it could get worse later. what was the big takeaway for you? lizzy: controlling inflation, no ifs or buts, that is the message she wanted to get across yesterday. the bank has to choose a path in a dilemma it has never faced

before in its independent history. it has to inflict this recession to control inflation, which it sees in double digits but above 13%. hence this rate hike we have not seen the size of for 27 years. the reason it says inflation will rise so high is mainly because of the war in ukraine's impact on energy prices, which it can do nothing about. rate hike is targeted for a secondary effect, pay rises they will have to give, and the price rises they will have to make to cover them. the forecast looks really bleak, and you would hope the actual reality will not be so bleak because it cannot take an unconfirmed fiscal policy. you would hope whoever is the next prime minister will announce more fiscal support to cushion the blow.

most economists warn the front runners tax cuts would be inflationary. the retaliation from the eu on the more aggressive return from brexit could be a trade war and add to the cost of living crisis. this is so bleak and looks more so because of the absents of the prime mr. and the chancellor, who were on holiday. it is that economic reality from the officials. dani: do not miss francine lacqua, she will have an exclusive interview with the boe later. on to geopolitics. japan says china has likely fire missiles over taiwan during military drills thursday. it would be a major escalation as china has never before sent missiles over taiwan. the immediate rocket reaction

has faded to everything happening in taiwan, but does this represent the longer-term impacts that are likely? >> yes, that is absolutely correct. we are monitoring this closely. so far, we have seen extremely provocative acts from china's military. on thursday afternoon, according to two are ones defense ministry, china fired 11 ballistic missiles into the waters in the north, south east of taiwan. some suspect some of the missiles could fly over taiwan even though neither china nor taiwan have confirmed that, some missiles have fired over taiwan. they basically need to fly over the outer space of taiwan.

taiwan's military will not release the path of the missiles , and because it is so high, it posed no threats to the ground. that is why people in taiwan on thursday had no air raid sirens that there was a missile coming their way. there are at least 48 hours before china finishes its military drills in the waters and airspace surrounding taiwan. we will monitor closely anymore provocative moves from china in the following days. manus: here in the uae they have made their sentiment clear, which is unique for the uae in terms of these provocative moves they have seen from the situation. let's get the reaction from juliette saly, in singapore, watching the asian markets overnight.

taiwan is rallying today, so in the first flush of reaction, it is not all the way down? juliette: absolutely not, what a volatile week has been for taiwanese assets on the taiwan dollar, but today it seems a lot of investor angst has dissipated following nancy pelosi's trip. it is back to levels at the end of june, and that is lifting the broader asian index for a third week. a little profit from alibaba. it still challenges remain but we did see adr's rise. we are also watching the reaction to the are b.i. decision, the central bank lifting rates by 50 basis points, the top end of the range. you have india yields rising. let's look at that inflationary picture from the rbi.

we have not seen the cash trade at 4.5%, this level since 2019. in the last 30 minutes they think they have accommodation needed and suggest inflation will be at 6.7%. dani: thank you very much in singapore. investors are focused on today's u.s. nonprofit fuels report and what it could mean for rate hikes. jobless claims in july, let's get into the details of what to expect. what can these jobs numbers tell us at the moment about the state of the economy in the u.s., and how the fed will react? >> economists are looking for some softening in the data, expecting 250,000+ jobs created.

they are looking for softening in wage growth. that would suggest a slowing economy underway. nonetheless, people will say these numbers show the economy is not yet in a recession in the labor market is robust and healthy overall. it suggests the fed has work ahead of them. the bigger takeaway will be the stronger number coming in. the fed has a lot of work to do and will go ahead with aggressive rate hikes. manus: it sounds as if the rbi central bank governor is talking about this regime change by

global central banks. they will not be stop. -- they will not be stopped. let's look at key items on the slate for the trading day. production data in germany at 7:00 a.m., followed by france and italy. the bank of england chief economist will speak on the monetary policy report briefing. he will join bloomberg later in the day. it was said the recession could happen in the process of recession. dani: finally, the u.s. jobs report inspected to show again of 250,000 jobs in july and unchanged unemployment rate of 3.6%.

coming up, we get more into the conversation on the test the ceo. manus: we will also dive into the earnings from allianz, with the ceo, who joins us in a short while. looking at the numbers, you have outflows from pimco at the moment, 28 though you and. -- 28 billion. ♪

>> mild, moderate recession, maybe 18 months-ish. and i think inflation will drop rapidly, that is my guess. manus: elon musk speaking at the

tesla on inflation and the risk of recession. a trading model by jp morgan shows the odds of recession are falling fast. equity, credit in rate markets assigning a 40% chance down from 50%. simon harvey, let him add his voice, he is head of fx analysis, monex europe. the risk of recession is fading, the question is does the dollar fade in syncopation with these rates and percentages? simon: good morning. yes, the risk of recession is marginally falling because markets are ushering in a new period of central-bank policy where we are trying to see acceleration in the fed's hiking cycle, unless we see tension from cpi components from here on in.

does that negate the idea that the u.s. is going into recession? i'm not convinced at the moment. i think there is a lot of data from here to the end of the quarter, but the question at the moment is not necessarily is the u.s. in recession but what is the central bank's reaction? they are open to growth conditions but to what extent? we are seeing from the ecb in the bank of england that recession is on the horizon and they have to act now because the lesson they want to do is carry-on doing jumbo rate hikes when the optics are very bad. dani: i wonder in terms of what the market is pulling back, on recession expectations, how much is about positioning or profit-taking versus an actual fundamental change about the economy? simon: i think it is difficult at the moment. we are in a weird, quiet spot with a lot of data to come in before the next round of central banking.

in europe the narrative is clear. we are watching energy markets closely. in the u.s., it is not clear. for markets, if they will trade sideways with high volatility, fine if that is what they are comfortable with until we see a clear definition of what the next trading theme is. i do not think we will see that until q4. manus: we have had spectacular moves in the past few weeks. there was a sudden shutter in dollar-yen that was temporary. the taiwan acts we are seeing is a tale risk the moment. -- tail risk at the moment. how will markets prepare for an escalation in that scenario? simon: it is a tail risk but the yen has properties but if we are

looking at an escalation in taiwan, this is more inflation. this is a further polarization in global geopolitics, and it will only add to the current inflation backdrop. the yen is highly sensitive to u.s. rates, and in a global downturn even with pronounced geopolitical risk, the yen will be sensitive to what happens at the back end of the u.s. yield curve. if we see more inflation and more pressures come through, the yen is not the cleanest haven if we see an escalation in tensions between china and the west. dani: the dollar? is anything not good for the dollar? simon: it is difficult to beat the drum. we will wait until the central-bank policy shifts and we see deceleration in the federal reserve rate cycle, then we can talk about the dollar.

until then it is difficult. it is boring as an fx analyst. it is difficult to look past it. i think we are looking towards that september meeting as more of an inflection point for the dollar. manus: we would like to remember you as an fx analyst bold with your call in your moment on bloomberg. why be mediocre? there is one way to find the next george soros, tell the fx market that the pound is not in crisis. ubs is at 1.15. jane fully thinks it is on the back foot for a while. these are bloody yang remarks -- bloodying remarks. will the market challenge this line from the governor that it

is not in crisis, the pound? simon: i think we are definitely going to see it soften. on a trade-weighted basis, what will give it solace is euro has a bleaker economic outlook, but against the dollar we keep going back to it depends on what the federal reserve does. if the bank of england's hiking into recession because it does not want to take rights higher than 2% -- take rates higher than 2%, and if the fed goes back and continues to aggressively hike interest rates, then yes, we can talk about the pound being in a crisis, parity stretched at this point. i think we will see the pound be soft. dani: what do you think of the boe being so candid about his discussion on recession? it is something you would never hear from the fed. simon: if you go out and in

every run you speak on recession, it is perfect. pull back on consumer spending, and all of a sudden you do not have to hike rates aggressively because of the psychological effect of saying recession somebody times will naturally have that impact on the consumer, and ultimately if we look at the bank of england's decision it is to suppress consumer demand. as long as they can weigh on consumer sentiment more, that is their job. dani: thank you so much for joining us, simon harvey, head of fx analysis, monex europe. manus: let's focus on these lines from pimco. second straight quarter in a row were money has flooded out of pimco, 27 billion euros.

this is a monster outflow. we will break it down on bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm dani burger in london with manus cranny in dubai. we will go over these allianz numbers. operating profit might have eaten, it is all about the pimco flow. manus: it is. we have been batting these numbers, so let's put fact, 28.7 billion went out in q2, investors withdrawing money. equities tanked, bonds and commodities tanked, but if you add that to q1, 13 billion come

by my rough math it is a 15% drawdown in pimco's asset management in the first six months of 2022. this is monster. dani: end of march, 1.5 trillion euros, and at the end of this quarter, 3.9 trillion euros. second quarter of outflows, first time we are seeing outflows since the onset of the pandemic. manus: we will talk about the pricing they are seeing in the insurance market in general, and the impact of global rate hikes. we will talk about that move from the bank of millions have made the switch from the big three to xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year on their wireless bill. and all of those millions are on the nation's most reliable 5g network, with the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. that's a whole lot of happy campers out there. and it's never too late to join them.

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♪ manus: it is your friday edition

of "bloomberg daybreak: europe" with me, manus cranny, and dani burger in london with the stories that set your agenda. dani: a high-risk milestone. china reportedly fires missiles over taiwan as beijing continues to express dismay at u.s. house speaker's contentious visit to taipei. bailey's warning. after the biggest rate hike in 27 years, the bank of england governor warns the u.k. to brace contraction -- brace for contraction amid unrelenting inflation. >> in the u.k. and in the rest of europe. gdp growth in the u.k. has slowed and the economy is now forecast to enter recession later this year. dani: plus, past the peak. elon musk sees inflation trending lower as the carmaker approves a stock split. manus, happy friday to you. great to be back in the driver's seat alongside you. it is concern about recession,

yield curve even deeper inverted but markets not doing too much this morning. manus: yeah, i mean, two ceo's on daybreak middle east talking about inflation topping out. that builds on the narrative, doesn't it? let's have a look at the gmm board. you have this view. iron ore ramping up by 3.87%. you are seeing more activity in china. copper on the bounce, 1.26%. keeping an eye on the pound. you know my favorite line of the day, which is when you tell a market that you do not have a crisis in the currency, that's one way to unleash hell on it. dani: i thought you said your line would be from michael burry.

i thought you might. look, perhaps the silliness is continuing because we are seeing a rally in futures this morning. we are off from the highs in europe. u.k. continues to underperform. it was flat yesterday with the broader market rallying. we are on track for the third consecutive weekly increase when it comes to these markets. notably off the bottom is also the nasdaq 100. we have a lot of earnings, a lot of back-and-forth, but perhaps some different positioning to get risk, dive back into risk after a difficult start to the year. s&p 500 futures are up. we have some talk of a stock buyback tax in the u.s. manus: and of course, michael burry talking about the silliness transforming bulls to bubbles. we are in the silly season.

i recommend anybody reads that story. dani loves this tax buyback. let's talk about the bank of england. let's talk about the u.k., what does it face? a protracted recession. that's after the bank raised rates by 50 basis points, the biggest increase in 27 years. francine lacqua set down with the governor, and her bailey. >> we will get -- andrew bailey. >> we will get inflation back to target, there's no question about that. that's my answer. of course, it's very hard. it's very hard, particularly those with low income. if we don't get it under control, it will get worse and we will have to raise interest rates by more. manus: let's get to lizzy burden. she was outside the bank of england yesterday through today listening to that exchange. look, before we get to the

politics around the bank of england's decision, what more do we learn about qt? that is the known unknown. will it impact the gilt market aggressively or meander through? lizzy: the bank concerned they are going to be 80 billion of constant -- of quantitative tightening along with 110 billion. that's going to begin in september. we are going to go out of quantitative easing the same way we came into it, in terms of how they are going to sell the maturities in buckets across the curve. the bank wants to emphasize that interest rates are an active tool. they would not be drawn on how much qt equates to in terms of basis points of interest rate rises. thankfully, the strategist at goldman sachs who have done the

sums for us and they say 95 billion pounds worth of qt what have been worth 50 basis points of hikes. it's very difficult for markets to ignore. dani: we had the conservative leadership debate yesterday. what did we learn about how the candidates plan to solve this cost of living crisis? lizzy: it was kind of a blame game. rishi sunak, the former chancellor, has said, well, soon unka -- sunak was blamed, putin was blamed for the war in ukraine. her plans are going to help us out of a recession. she was put under the microscope, especially on her plans to reduce public sector pay in the regions, which she

had a u-turn on. she was forced to admit that this plan had not been misrepresented in the media. even as your bailey was being dragged -- even andrew bailey was being dragged into this political storm. officials were adamant about the need for boe independence. one oftruss' allies said the mandate review will look at the bank's entire exclusionary independence over interest rates. so, independence is actually going to come under the spotlight. manus: i think what's more interesting, really, these tax cuts that she talks about. if you listen to her language and her supporters, it's about the corporate right to build employment. great roundup. lizzy burden there on the politics and the bank of england. don't miss francine lacqua's exclusive interview with the boe chief economist. what else have we got? dani: joining us now, i am

pleased to say, is sonali punhani, chief u.k. economist at credit suisse, to get more into the boe. it was a pretty dire forecast coming from the boe, inflation picking above 13% -- inflation peaking above 13%, entering a contracted recession. sonali: i think the bank of england is the first central bank to say that recession might be the price we need to pay to get inflation under control. and also, what was interesting was it was a change in stance for the boe. they have been quite cautious over the last few meetings, hiking by 25 basis points. this was a willingness from them to act more aggressively. in the near term, it means hikes are possible, that maybe we see more outsized rate hikes in the near term.

the near term inflation forecast has been upgraded so significantly, which basically means there are more hikes to come. manus: welcome to the show. good to have you with us. let me just go against that, because i was listening to nomura and they said this would be the last jumbo hike that you will get. from what you just said, i don't think you agree with that. do you expect multiple jumbos to get inflation back towards the corridor for the bank of england? sonali: yes. we are actually expecting another 50 basis points rate hike in september and then we expect the bank of england to switch back to its rate hike cycle. the reason i am saying that is because in other countries, we are having these stories that inflation is potentially peaking with other pressures coming down. whereas in the u.k., given the way the energy price cap works, the peak is unlikely before

october. we still have pretty bad numbers coming up on the inflationary side. i think that is going to keep the pressure up on the bank of england to continue this path they have set out. they have also increased the persistence of inflation to domestic wages. i think that is an important change from last time. wages are still rising. we are in a tight labor market. dani: what does that mean for the outlook, of not just them pausing, but eventually you turning -- u-turning and putting in cuts? sonali: i think the bank of england has been behind the curve on inflation. that means they might be behind the curve on cuts as well. they will not have the luxury to be able to cut rates like they have in the past. they might have to keep rates in restricted territory because inflation is likely to persist for a long time. their own forecast says

inflation is likely to be above 9% for all of 2023. it would be difficult to see how they could cut in an environment like that. manus: i know those two things you said we don't talk about, politics, and two, the pound. what the heck, let's throw it at the wall. truss talking about tax cuts. maybe i am not reading the right economics books. she says they are not inflationary. could substantial tax cuts, tax breaks in housing, which is very trueblue, tori mantra -- tory mantra, could that avert the five corridor slowdown? sonali: if you look at the economics, tax cuts are inflationary. they do lead to an increase in demand and consumption by people and that means that acts as

inflation. i am not sure that's the right strategy to control inflation. talking about the recession and the risk of recession, i think to some extent, the depth of the recession can be potentially reduced by any kind of support we get. the bank would not be able to provide the accommodation that they usually provide in a recessionary environment so we would need to have some support in order to help people talk about it. it's about what kind of fiscal policies we are talking about. if you are giving support to low income individuals who are really struggling in this environment, that makes sense to me. but giving broad-based tax cuts to everyone may not be the best idea and it might just add to inflation, which the bank of england might have to take away by hiking more. dani: i love this. ok, i like how you lay out the, what exactly specifically would be inflationary?

what does help soften the blow? if andrew bailey is looking at a truss government versus a sunak government, how much will that alter their path? sonali: in the near term, this means they might have to do maybe an additional rate hike. it depends on what these plans are that truss puts in place and what exactly the timeline is. in the near term, it means potentially a rate hike by the bank of england to counter the inflationary tax cut. manus: as the governor says, the pound is not in crisis. ubs slashing their view on that. the pound is under pressure. to what extent can the pound devaluation and pressure help? sonali: yes, i mean, on the inflationary side, it actually makes things worse. if you have a weaker pound, that basically means that you are -- your cost of imports increases and that adds to inflation.

it does have this effect of making exports more competitive and intentionally -- potentially increased export growth. the entire global economy is also slowing down. there are of the european union being in recession in the next few months. in that environment, it is not very clear if global demand would be a greater factor on the outlook of growth and export growth rather than the pound. so, i am not sure how much, you know, positive impact the following pound would have on the economy -- falling pound would have on the economy. dani: thanks for joining us. sonali punhani from credit suisse. tesla has cleared the way for a three to one stock split. we will have more from the annual shareholders meeting next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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♪ manus: together on "bloomberg daybreak: europe." it is friday with manus cranny in dubai, dani burger in london. big split at tesla. dani: that's right. they had their agm last night. the carmaker approved a stock split. it did not disappoint. joining us now is bloomberg's laura wright. let's start with the stock split. what is the significance of it? laura: it is going to democratize tesla's share price. it is a three to one stock split. it will make tesla more affordable for highly engaged retail investors. the last time tesla engaged in a stock split was in august of 2020.

the expectation is that will it -- that it will bring down tesla's share price to around $300. interestingly, board members also want -- well, the proposal, rather, was rejected by shareholders. shareholders want tenures to be one year rather than the two years. elon musk gave a contrarian call that he thinks inflation will subside over the coming months. the world' wealthiests person also had a bullish call that tesla's delivery could reach one .5 million by the full year of 2022. that's after a record first quarter of deliveries from the ev maker. take a listen. elon: we might be able to announce another factory location later this year. [cheers] ok, where should we build it?

ok, we've got a lot of canadas. [laughter] i am half canadian, so maybe i should, you know? dani: matt miller will be glad to know that the cyber truck is on track to come online in mid-2023. you've got to love that angular design. manus: absolutely. we know matt likes a truck and a motorbike. there are multiple elephants that could trample into the room at an elon musk live event. did twitter get a mention? dani: it did. elon musk admitted that the only publicly traded companies he owns are tesla and twitter. musk says he understands the social media platform, that he genuinely wanted to help twitter but those comments come during an ugly legal battle with subpoenas and countersuit flying around after the deal fallout.

manus: look -- laura, thank you very much. laura wright with the latest on elon musk. allianz has reported higher profits. the giant's bond business, pimco , saw clients pull money out for a second straight quarter. a monster outlook. dani: let's dig into that. it's into the earnings with allianz's giulio terzariol, who joins us now from munich. let's start with pimco. you had over 13 billion euro outflows in the first quarter, then you have a second quarter here outflows yet again, a difficult market environment, 29 billion euros. when do you foresee pimco starting to draw inflows? what have you seen so far in this month? giulio: good morning. clearly, the first part of 2022,

we saw outflows. it is not idiosyncratic to pimco . in the month of july, we see still slightly negative outflows. but the beginning of modernization, we believe it's all about how the market is going to develop moving forward. we think we are going to be very well positioned. for pimco, definitely very positive. we could see outflows in a situation like this. we need to put things also in relation to the [indiscernible] of pimco. you are speaking about an asset manager. -- considering the environment we are going through.

and once the situation is going to stabilize, all of these outflows are going to become inflows. it will be even more compelling in a higher interest rate environment. manus:manus: good morning and welcome to the show. the market really wants to get a handle on where you see was their -- whether you seek capitulation coming to an end or we see deeper and sustained outflows. will it be deeper, leveraging, or is it capitulation plan? giulio: i will say that when we look at the interest rate curve, you might have a situation where, on the short end, you are going to see rates going in little bit up because you see what the central banks are currently doing. on the other end, there is still an expectation that in reality, we are not dealing with a high

inflation level for several years. you might see basically this kind of flattening of the curve happening. what will also be very important from our standpoint is really to play the variable position at different point of the curve. what you are seeing also, right now what you saw in the last weeks is the long end of the curve has gone down. i would not say that we are in a situation where we have a capitulation, but i think that we are entering a situation of more stability after what has been a strong shock in the interest rates development. dani: yeah, a strong shock when it comes to interest rates. and of course, there is concern about recession. you say there is more stability to come. does that mean your overall view as to whether or not we will have a recession really globally, the u.s. and europe is perhaps mitigated, that you

don't necessarily see that deep contraction that many economists are seeing? giulio: i would say they are going to see some level of contraction. that would be fair to say. i do not think we are going to go into a very deep contraction. but to a certain degree, we are going to see some impact on the economy because at the end of the day, inflation is going to be spiraling, it will be -- to act on rates. also, we see that households are going to spend more money just for pleasure spending. from that point of view, there will be a recession but i don't think we are going to have a deep recession. manus: ok, so that's the recessionary outlook. now, translating inflation and

prices into the property and casualty business, they are raising premiums. how much are you managing to raise your premiums? will this injure? will these racist -- will this endure? will these raises stick? giulio: absolutely. clearly, we see inflation also on the claims side. we are getting rate increases. by the way, if you look at our growth in property-casualty in the second quarter, there was double digits, so we are at 11% growth in property-casualty, which was widespread across her businesses. most of this growth was driven by rates. clearly, premium increases are going to accelerate. be sure that we can protect our -- dani: so, you've just finished a program of share buybacks last

month. what is your outlook for the next one? will there be another round of stock buybacks this year? giulio: so, what we did in the first part of the year, we did a buyback of one billion, and also we deployed some capital and small m&a. we deployed about a little bit more than half a billion. as we look at the second part of the year, also entering next year, clearly, we are going to continue to look at capital deployment. in this moment, buybacks might be -- as opposed to mna. but as always -- as opposed to m&a. but as always, we are going to keep our strategy to look at what is out there in the market. manus: if you say that buybacks look interesting, could you deliver a similar scale of buybacks? should investors expect that? giulio: i would say yes.

when you look at the time horizon, let's say of the next 6-12 months, i would say an expectation to have a buyback of the same size can be undertaken. manus: low done. good to have -- well done. good to have you with us, the allianz cfo. giulio terzariol our guest from allianz. his -- interesting to hear his views on the curve and where we go. dani, good to have you back. i was here for two weeks on my own. dani: i promise i will not do it to you again, i promise. "bloomberg markets" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ anna: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: europe."