tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg August 10, 2022 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT
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>> we are more than halfway through the trading day. stocks are falling, yields are falling and the cpi print came in as a surprise. i'm caroline hyde and this is "bloomberg markets." caroline: halfway through the trading day and what a day it is. after the cpi print came in slightly cooler than expected, we see the s&p 500 level search up one point 9% thinking perhaps the federal reserve will not need to go as hard as the market previously had been basing in. yields dropping significantly on the short end. two year yields down some 11
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basis points meaning the inverted yield curve gets a little less inverted on the twos, tens, dollar index selling off 1.2% lower. we expect a less hawk's federal reserve. bitcoin in general play that much higher, 3.5% on, the white house economic advisor reacted to the latest inflation numbers. take a listen. >> what we need to do right now is we need to help bring prices down in a way that sustains their economic progress we have made. we saw 500,000 jobs created last month while the inflation print was zero. we can keep making progress on that front. caroline: let's get more analysis on the jobs, cpi, what it means. the president and founder of macro policy perspectives, a federal reserve researcher in previous years. great to get your voice on network. i'm interested in where we are now balanced. are we focused on the cooler cpi's and the seriously hot jobs
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number we had friday? >> the two are not necessarily contradictory. we can have a cooling in inflation driven by headline inflation, driven by increased price sensitivity of consumers, even with a resilient job market. i do not think we are out of the inflation woods. wage growth is strong, core inflation is running hot, but we will take the wind. this is good news both on core inflation and headline inflation with evidence consumers are picking and choosing now that they can spend on goods and services. they will put their money where the deals are the best and so we saw airfares falling after an incredible surge over the last few months and in general a cooling in travel crisis after really red-hot numbers in q2. caroline: about the components, we had a darling back in
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gasoline and travel fed and we are worried about the amount people are having to have to spend on rent and shelter. what to make of the pace of the calling we now get because a .5% is less than what we worried about but extremely elevated. julia: it is extremely elevated. again, the fed's work is not done here. we have seen inflation run high, it has been high for a long time and it has become entrenched but again, we are starting to see things moving in the right direction. the broad-based decline in commodity prices puts pressure on input costs and i think a lot of this -- we focus a lot on the labor market but some of the rising price sensitivity may be on the part of consumers reflecting the fiscal support. we were pumping money into people's pockets throughout the pandemic and that ended abruptly at the beginning of this year and as budgets tighten up, there
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is that extra cash on the sidelines. you are seeing rising price sensitivity. it will take some time. things like rent inflation is sticky so that relief on that front probably is a 2023 issue. this notion the fed is close to being done i think is quite dramatically overstated. they will probably raise rates into next year and keep them high for a while. but again, at least we can see that there are -- there is some relief and the tightening is delivering results now and hopefully more to come. caroline: as you say, the chicago fed president already said we are hiking into 2023. i'm interested in what the bond market signals. it's interesting we did not get the tenure auction in the note, the results of the auction coming through now. do we have a bit of ratio compared to last month and what happened with rising yields on
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the longer and. the slightly less in version of twos intends, does that mean we're less worried about a recession? julia: the twos/tens inversion is a leading indicator but i would say not a possible indication of a recession and it can convert years ahead of a recession. i just tells the fed is taking -- away. that may or may not lead to a recession imminently. given the job market, the soonest i can imagine this going into a recession is next year, nothing m&a. i think the fact we are seeing cooling price pressures now while the job market is still strong, gives us a little glimmer of a hope of soft landing. not cooling but they can stop at what i think president evans said something like 375 and 4% e market range, i think that would be consistent with a market
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landing in this hot labor market. time will tell. we need a lot more of reports like this. caroline: and a lot more data to chew on. i'm interested in what the next one is for you, people talking about how the retail can be interesting. as he spoke about a moment ago, where are people allocating that for the moment. is that the data point for you? what are you keeping an eye on? julia: yeah, susan li -- yes, certainly the consumers are key. we have gotten a pretty decent round of earnings reports for q2 , certainly nothing recessionary there. a few misses here and there but overall a pretty strong result. so consumers are getting choosier, they are getting more cautious, that can be expected and that is good news because that is the necessary element to a cooling in inflation pressure.
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so the retail sales data there will be tricky to interpret because we are seeing the shift away from goods to services. we can see weak retail spending reports as consumers hold up on goods. they will get more of their dollars toward experiences and services. we need to keep a broad picture on the data. the broadest readings we get really come in the jobs report. that is where we become -- we see how the certain sector is doing, the good sector is doing, and how that translates into purchasing power. we have had really good news there. caroline: all truism, i love it. great to have you with us. julie coronado, micro policy perspectives president and founder. let's begin with how reporter of
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bloomberg intelligence, smartest man in the building. tell us what you made of the 8.5% and what you saw of the dramatic move of long bike on the back. >> the data this morning basically took back everything we did in terms of more inversion from the pavers roles -- payrolls report. i would not say this is a significant change in trend in terms of the yield curve further inversion. it does take off a little of the froth from the idea the fed is going to have to continue to hike at a 75 basis point pace and maybe go further than they thought. it is one data point and there is a lot of internal pieces of the data that still point to award inflation being uncomfortably high for the fed. i would not take this as a complete turn the market psychology right now but it is certainly something the market is taken has a positive in terms of not as high as inflation as the market thought.
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caroline: this is exactly probably how the federal reserve chief himself will be feeling, this is not a seven change in the mantra angst and is not compelling evidence. he does not feel we are dialing back on inflation significantly. it is a part of that story to that end, with the market pricing in 50 to 75, is that about right you're still anticipating a more hawkish federal reserve or should we dilute back? >> i think 50 basis points have to be a base case with your best case 75 basis points, which is what the market is pricing. the fed at this point i think -- and think about calibrating the pace and terminal rate in the not-too-distant future, if they go 50 basis points in september, they can maybe go at 25 basis point clips but maybe go further if they have to. if the federal reserve thinks inflation is still running hotter were not trending downward as fast as they want in the early 2023, they can keep going at their normal 25 basis
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point clips. maybe all of the way up to what adam long and the bloomberg economic team think is it a -- think it is up to five percent. michael is 4.5 percent but it is close enough and certainly in that direction and that is significantly more hikes than the market is pricing at a little under another 100 basis of hikes. the idea the market -- the fed will hike 50 basis points in september and 25 in the last few meetings of the year then stop, that has to end. you even had dovish fed speak after today's number like from charlie evans who even said he has penciled in several hikes in 2023 and that is not something the market is yet thinking about. caroline: i think about the hawkish data they came out yesterday, we are of course short in our memories of the markets but unit lever costs came up yesterday. we worried about sticking inflation. is there anything you are looking to? >> we are looking for the retail sales data. that is the next big data point
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and we will get that prior to chair powell speaking at jackson hole later this month. i think if that shows that sales data is going up, excluding gasoline because we know gasoline data is going to be volatile, outside of that, looking at core retail sales, if that data continues to run at a decent pace, i think you have to think the fed is going to go to at least with the market is pricing in if not further. the importance of friday's data is with wages and aggregate labor income continuing to rise dramatically at a 9% year on your pace, that is not slow. that means consumers as a whole are able to continue to purchase even at these higher prices. so basically the higher prices can be sustained for longer because of the economic data we have seen over the last couple days. overall, it is good for the economy but that is probably bad for long-term inflation.
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caroline: i miss the [indiscernible] behind him but i love the bloomberg intelligence back on. let's get you our programming note, tune in for our interview with the san francisco fed president tomorrow 7:30 p.m. new york time. it is time now for the bloomberg first word news. here is crumpton. mark: inflation in the u.s. is celebrated -- accelerated last month by more than expected. that may take some pressure off the federal reserve to keep aggressively hiking interest rates. u.s. commerce secretary gina raimondo says there is no easy resolution when it comes to addressing inflation. >> it is good news, though i think we have to be cautious. a big reason for the good news, gas prices are leveling off and that certainly helps consumers but, as you point out, there are other issues in housing that we have to still keep our eye on the ball. as we said, there is no silver
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bullet here. the mark: consumer price index rose .5% from a year earlier, a drop in gasoline prices offset higher food and housing costs. former president trump is refusing to answer questions in an investigation by new york's attorney general letitia james. the probe has to do with his business deals. he arrived at the attorney general's office this morning but then put out a statement saying he was asserting his for the minute right not to answer questions. the u.s. justice department charged an iranian national for plotting the murder of former u.s. national security advisor john bolton. the u.s. alleges he tried to pay $300,000 to have him murdered. officials say the plot was likely in retaliation for the january 2020 killing of a high-ranking commander of iran's armed forces.
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caroline: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm caroline hyde. from the rhine to the nano, europe is drying up at the worst possible moment as the comic crisis and energy crunch for the country -- i'm interested in the levels of waters now on the rhine and remind us of why they are so important, what is traveling on them? >> right, so the rhine river is about 800 miles long, it goes from high up in this with us -- in the swiss alps to the north sea. it goes through a lot of european countries and it is used the ship so much important stuff to europe. it is gas, oil, diesel, gasoline, but also coal, iron or, sand, gravel, all of the supporting commodities. what is happening is there is
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this place that is very cute, just a bit to the west of frankfurt and the water level there, the measure board level is forecast now to fall to 40 centimeters. that is not literally 40 centimeters deep the entire river but it is how they measure its. basically when it gets to that level, it becomes uneconomical for a lot of barges to carry on going through. caroline: so because they cannot fill themselves as much as they want, numbers do not add up and so we see a drying up of the transport of commodities? >> right. what it is is when you load a barge, the more stuff you put into the barge, the lower it sits in the water. if you're river is getting shallower and shower, getting too much in the barge in your river is shallow, the bottom of the barge will run aground in the bottom of the river. it is not just a cow, it is all
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along the rhine. there have been limits on how much barges can carry. caroline: when we are thinking about what is in them, you said a very important thoroughfare through many european countries, i'm interested in the bigger context, what then starts happening? less energy is able to be transported, more concerns about smelting in industry and the like? >> exactly. a lot less is able to be carried along the river. you can still get some barges going through. it is not a complete hole when it gets $.40 was speaking to an owner the other day saying he had some barges that could get through a cop 20, when it is 20 centimeters. switzerland on the south side of cobb does import what they call mineral oil products along the rivers, stuff like diesel and so they are going to struggle to get what they need and there are other consequences like it's
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warned output might have to be cut in germany as the company struggles to get supplies for the rhine river. it is also getting extremely expensive. the barge on her i was speaking to before said he literally fell off his chair when he saw the cost of shipping on the rhine. it really is dramatic. caroline: extraordinary price pressures, energy crashes, blackouts, all of this attic for nerd times. thank you very much. it is a great read. thank you so much for staying in the london bureau for us. meanwhile, you can check it out, bloomberg.com. still ahead, talking about monkeypox, continues to -- cases continue to rise. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: this is "bloomberg markets." i'm caroline hyde. the u.s. food and drug administration issued an emergency use authorization for the vaccine aiming to curb the spread of monkeypox virus. it is a cunning move given the risk of spreading the virus is rising, students heading back to school for example. an at -- an epidemiologist at the bloomberg school of public health shed a little light on how we are managing if at all to get our hands around this virus at the moment. >> the primary strategy right now is to offer vaccines to people at highest risk and that is right now gay and bisexual men who have multiple or anonymous partners. so this vaccine is available to prevent monkeypox in that high-risk population. we did here yesterday the way the vaccine is administered is being changed to stretch the supply and i expect this to help
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to slow the transmission of the virus. caroline: they are just going at a very high level of your skin to be able to ensure you can get it and use less of all of it. important to continue to innovate and think about the ways in which we can get this into the arms of people who are most at risk. but anyone can be affected by monkeypox. i'm interested, the work you've done the research winco that it -- when combating covid-19 in the u.s.. have we acted differently monkeypox because of it? >> the good news is for monkeypox, we had a pretty broad base of preparedness. that is because after september 11 and the anthrax attacks on the country, -- attacks on the country, the country put a lot of effort into viruses. so we have a vaccine, in antiviral, and diagnostic tests distributed to the states. so we had a suspension substantial leg up compared with covid-19. caroline: what about treatments
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as when you have it? julia: there is >> >> an antiviral available held in a strategical -- >> there is an antiviral available held in a strategical stockpile, stockpile of medications to help respond to health events. the antiviral is called cpox and some clinicians say can be a little hard to access because it is only this one supply but it had been almost any other pathogen we would not have had that availability because of the smallpox preparedness that we have an antiviral for monkeypox on the shelves. caroline: are people managing with the outreach as much as they can to part the communities who do not want to stand in the street publicly going for a monkeypox vaccine if they feel in any way the religious reasons or whatever they might be in some way different for this vaccine? do we see people communicating in certain minority environments
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for example? caitlin: avoiding stigma is an absolute priority. for this outbreak in any outbreak. the cdc has been concentrating their out root -- outreach through groups and media primarily serving the lgbtq community, to make sure the right messages reach the right people. anything we can do to further our engagement with community groups and with of the populations at risk will be important. caroline: there was another story that, i, a virus and eastern china, is this something we need to be concerned about or no? caitlin: not yet. it worries me as an epidemiologist because the virus is related to a virus, one of the viruses that has been identified as one of possible pandemic concern but there are only 35 cases of this new virus that have been identified. no transmission and no death. caroline: thank you for your time today.
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mark: welcome to the bnn and bloomberg audience. i am mark crumpton with first word news. a missile strike in crimea was met with celebration in ukraine and consternation in moscow. they decried the missile strike while ukraine and officials did not directly claim responsibility. a top aide to president zelensky call the blast, "just the beginning." u.s. defense secretary lloyd austin enforced the pledge that washington and allies will continue supplying military aid to ukraine to help it repel russia's invasion.
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russia has resumed oil flows toward ukraine. the largest oil refinery in hungary says it resolved the dispute that led to the halt in oil flows to central europe. european sanctions had prevented russia from paying the transit fee to let the oil pass through. in moscow, a russian journalist who staged an antiwar protest on the main news channel said police raided her home as part of a new fake news probe against her. she says 10 police and officers from the investigative committee, the russian equivalent of the fbi, took her away for questioning. the u.k.'foreign office says some of the chinese ambassador over wide-ranging escalation against taiwan. china has ended unprecedented military exercises near taiwan
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that says it plans to conduct regular patrols in the region. the chinese began the drills last week after house speaker nancy pelosi defied beijing and visited taiwan. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. jon: i am jon erlichman. welcome to "bloomberg markets." caroline: i am caroline hyde. the reaction to the soft cpi. the s&p 500 launches higher 1.9%. hawkish sentiment. whether it is right or not in terms of interest rates we will
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see. the dollar index not king on the day. bitcoin risk assets, tech shares spiraling higher. jon: when we go under the hood and look at technology, the fact that you have got a lot of momentum behind tesla. we will talk about elon musk coming up. roblocks holding in with a modest decline on the day. we are looking at the inflation realities within the earnings report themselves. for wendy's, that was ahead during the quarter. we will see how this fits into disney. we will have a preview of those results after the bell tonight. caroline: we are getting back to the all-important cpi number. here are what the top voices have already said. >> this was a good report.
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>> this data allows us to breathe a sigh of relief. >> it is nothing like we are out of the woods. >> the fed has plenty more work to do. >> we do not expect we are finished. >> this is still 75. >> our goal is 50. >> 50 basis points. >> we are looking back at 50 basis points. >> it looks like it will be 50, 25, 25. >> that is a ton of tightening. >> i expect the end of the year the range will be 3.5% to 3.25%. jon: the fed does not believe this will come down anytime soon. lots of perspective. let's get more perspective from international economics policy correspondent michael mckee, who has been covering the report today. outside of the comments we just heard, you were on surveillance this morning. at least today saying, for the
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white house on the fed, the opportunity for a smile. mike: the news has been better for them the last month or so. jay powell suggested inflation would come down and they had the chance of a soft landing. of course, joe biden tried to defend his economic policies. both of them can smile because you have inflation coming down at the same time you have the unemployment rate falling. it was supposed to be the opposite. for this month, good news for those men in washington. caroline: interesting good news on the data front is good news for the market. we are so short minded. i think about the labor unit cost yesterday. there was sticky inflation elements. what are you now training your eye on as to what gives us fuel? mike: i would tell them not to celebrate too much. we do not know what is going to happen with energy prices.
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gasoline prices fell 7.7% and that was the big reason we saw the decline we did. if those should turn around because of the war, that's a problem. you mentioned the unit labor cost. as more people buy services, and that accelerated during the month, that is going to create more pressure on the workers they hire to pay them more money. that feeds into the inflation story. that is something to keep an eye on. the good news for these companies is that some of the transitory things have started to go down. used cars, rental cars, hotels and motels fell. there is a chance this momentum continues. jon: if we are trying to see the language that any fed officials who are making comments before we get to september, based on
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the inflation read today, what should we be watching for to see if there is doveish movement ahead? mike: i think a lot of them will say, like evans did today, they will give going. the question becomes, where do they stop? evans is looking at 3.5%. that is a full percentage point higher than now. they will have a couple of meetings where they are raising rates in september, may be and december. depending on how they break that up, we could see rising rates into the end of the year. we will see what happens with the data between now and then. caroline: michael mckee, important day for cpi. more important for us because it is your birthday. mike: thank you. my age keeps inflating. [laughter] caroline: inflation all around. michael mckee, what a legend. we thank him for staying late on his birthday.
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let's look at the market impact with the macro man. cameron, you have great notes today to put this into context. the market reaction was pretty obvious and so was the reading overall. but what -- jay powell cannot get enthusiastic yet. is this compelling evidence of the moderation in inflation? cameron: no, because it is only one data point. we do not know what the future holds. from a statistical perspective, you need more than one observation to render definitive or compelling judgment. if you want to look on the sour side of things, the fed meeting cpi, which lines up every piece of stuff and ranks them from the top to the bottom, that reached a new high.
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6.2% year on year, albeit receding from 0.27%. that is above what anyone would consider to be price stability or where the fed needs inflation to go. jon: as we continue to chew on these data points, i saw you writing today you are interested in looking ahead to the next retail sales reading. how come? cameron: one of the issues along with the unit labor cost issue is consumption. yes, we have supply constraints from covid. but there is also the demand component which is nominal spending from the consumer. that is one of the big drivers of inflation the last year.
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but there, last month, there was windfall from lower gasoline prices which represents positive income shock for consumers. the question is, do they save it? or do they spend it on other stuff? if they spend it, that would reduce the inflationary impulse. if they spend it, that would suggest the underlying causes of this inflation problem remain intact. we kind of need to see whether it is pocketed or deployed in other stuff, goods and services other than gasoline. caroline: i think back to the abrupt move on friday. today the reversal with good news is good news. are we going to have more volatile markets? are we seeing some short squeeze and will it be sustained? cameron: the answer to both of
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those in the medium-term is yes. we are seeing -- we should see ongoing volatility over the next several months. arguably, that i several weeks. that is going to be less of an issue because my interest notwithstanding, the two important data points are employment at inflation. we basically had them in the span of a few days. now we have to wait until next month. given the benign reading on inflation, that would arguably be, in the short run, volatility. moving forward, we have uncertainty. we do not know what the labor market data for august is going to say. we do not know what the inflation data is going to say. it does seem reasonable to think that after you get this
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follow-through, however long it may be on the back of this inflation number, the risks become a lot more symmetrical. there is every chance we could head right back down because of strong employment and another strong inflation print. if the trend turns for the august data, or if there is some shock. there is plenty of candidates for those these days. jon: we will be covering those numbers in the weeks ahead. cameron crise on the inflation story today. we are also watching the story of earnings from disney which are set to cross after the bell. we will get a preview from jason bazinet from citigroup. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: this is "bloomberg markets." i am caroline hyde with jon erlichman. disney expected after the bell and we might be adding subscribers to the streaming service. acceleration from the previous three months in terms of subscribers. more analysis from jason bazinet of citigroup. we are also focusing on the outlook, the four year guidance, right? jason: i think there is true statements here. the perception of the streaming business has been impaired the last six months. it is not anything to do with disney, but netflix. the street is dower on the
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economic returns streaming will ever generate. anything that disney can do to explain why this is going to be a better business in term of profits longer-term is going to be the best disney can do for its stock. jon: it was absolutely incredible to watch what has happened to netflix's stock. wiping away upwards of $200 billion in market value in nine months. do you think there will come a time where the market will, once again, see market in the streaming business? clearly, that has not been the case. jason: the buy side, i understand. if netflix is the market leader and they are not generating cash, the reasonable conclusion is there is no economic value. the reason we are optimistic is if you look at the pricing of streaming services to the consumer, it is far below. that is about one third the
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level what a consumer pays for linear tv. the pricing is wrong, way wrong on the streaming services. why is the pricing wrong? because everybody was going after subs. who could sign up the most the fastest? now there is no growth. if that is true, it is time to adjust the pricing strategy. if we get the pricing right, the business can become more profitable. that is why we are doing the math on disney and we see ample upside. we believe the buy side sentiment will improve. caroline: how much do you care about profitability when it comes to the investment in content? disney decided not to go with the indian premier league. is it better to focus on margins? jason: disney has a very good,
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long track record of being judicious on sports rights. they win some and they lose some. passing was the right call. in any environment, but particularly in this. i do not think disney bids on sports to drive ads. but it is more about cash flow. that will comport with the current sentiment. jon: quickly, are you going to be looking for any guidance for disney on the big, theatrical releases? how they feel about the transition to disney+ based on the economics we have heard from the new management team of warner bros. and discovery on how they feel about that math? jason: i think everyone settled into a pretty reasonable equilibrium. short of the theatrical window,
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that is the common consensus. disney has been there a while and i think others are following. i do not expect any real pivot from disney on that front. jon: ok. we will watch to see with the company has to say. jason, thank you for your analysis. jason bazinet, citigroup global head of cmt with a preview on disney. when we come back, elon musk selling $6.9 billion in tesla shares in case he needs it for twitter. more on what this means for his future in court. this is bloomberg. ♪
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acquisition of twitter. he already sold billions of dollars of stock this year. he is now offloaded $32 billion worth of tesla shares the past 10 months. caroline: he really came to bear with saying, i do not want to do this panicked. just in case he has the worst case scenario. he had to talk about whether the equity partners do not come up as well. jon: absolutely. the other big question, does that mean there is less attention on tesla? caroline: notable that tesla is managing to rally. that shows you the risk on mood everyone is in. we can get to the man who knows about these, ed ludlow. talk about not wanting to create undue stress on the share price.
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did that give us any inkling of where his mind is at on the twitter deal? ed: yeah. there has been a few things. his thinking, according to the tweet, to avoid the scenarios you outlined, one is that he did not want to fire with tesla stock in case the judge forces him to go through with the deal. and the second stipulation that he is hedging against the equity financing partners he lined up walking away. there is speculation in the market the timing is interesting. these regulatory filings show the stock was sold august 5 prior to the cpi print. maybe there is an element of preparation for market volatility. jon: i alluded to this earlier, but dana hull does excellent reporting for the team. put out a story looking at the big things tesla related that
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are on the agenda right now. clearly, as a major investor in the company and with much of his time still a tesla, some would say he is committed. there is a long list of to do's. ed: i will point out that he also tweeted that when the opportunity arises in the future, in the event he is not forced to buy twitter, he would come back and buy more tesla stock. musk has made the point he does not draw a significant cash salary. it is mostly equity or stock-based. he had to liquidate in the past but you are right. there is a lot of transformation to come with tesla. masterplan 3.0 for self-driving. but a, the vast majority of his
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wealth is in tesla holdings, but he is also the biggest shareholder. caroline: we always find any excuse to debate what is going on in the mind of that man. notable the full autonomy pitch. ed ludlow, our tesla man, hour everything man, thank you. it was a great story by dana hull. i do not understand how the man has some any hours in the day. he manages to either della great efficiently -- delicate efficiently or stretches his time zones. jon: there have been instances where he slept at the office. getting a good night's rest is important, especially in markets like this. caroline: the nasdaq selloff we had yesterday.
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we are actually seeing volumes up. the s&p pretty much in line with your average. as always, it is such a joy. stay well for the afternoon. jon erlichman, caroline hyde, this is bloomberg. ♪ when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds
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mark: keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world. here is the first word. i am mark crumpton. former president trump says he will not answer questions by the new york attorney general, invoking his fifth amendment right. he was deposed in a probe involving the value of his real estate holdings. the deposition was delayed because of the death of the former president's wife. this comes two days after federal investigators searched his home in florida. republicans echoed the assertion the search was politically motivated. mr. trump's 2016 presidential campaign has released former staffers from key sections of the nondisclosur
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