♪ >> good morning and welcome. we are counting down to asia's major market open. >> good evening, i am shery ahn.

top stories this hour. china set report key economic figures including industrial output and retail sales. covid lockdowns and a property slump threatening its recovery. haidi: -- reports the biggest profit of any company globally due to high crude prices and production. shery: earnings in australia were a quarter of -- retailers set to provide insight into the health of the consumer. u.s. futures under a little pressure at the open. this after we saw a rally on friday. big tech led the gains. four consecutive weeks of gains for the s&p 500. with a 14 day rsi passed 70. perhaps -- territory. we continue to watch the vix because volatility has fallen below the 20 level to which has been a historic average. we continue to watch oil prices as well. we are seeing pressure in the asian session after weekly gains. it is all about supply concerns,

but also demand. and that dynamic playing out. we have had positive data in the u.s. with consumer sentiment popping to the three month high. mixed inflation expectations when it came to that data. we are watching chinese adrs on the friday session. we will be watching how stocks trade in the china open as well. five of the largest state-owned companies will be delisting in the u.s.. you saw that listing boom in the u.s. in 2020, but that has dried out. we continue to see the u.s.-china tensions, concerns about chinese baseness is -- businesses. haidi: earnings dominating the future as well when it comes to asian markets. we have another u.s. congressional visit in taiwan, potentially further exacerbating geopolitical tensions between washington and beijing. when it comes to pressure on

chinese equities, we are expecting 12% downside for earnings. that shock to the downside. overall we are seeing a broader downside when it comes to the profit drop in asia with more earnings to come. in australia, -- reporting this week, we are seeing futures hold firm. looking like early gains at about .6%. some of the tailwind with the s&p 500 seeing the fourth straight week of gains. the aussie dollar seeing strength, holding unchanged at the moment. we will see how well that risk straight holds up particularly going into the -- decision week where we are expecting the new zealand central bank to deliver its fourth straight 50 basis point rise at wednesday's policy meeting. that will take the cash rate at 3%. watching the dollar yen, given we are looking at some risk. shery: also for the philippines and sri lanka, we get minutes

from the july fed meeting. we are trying to get clues about when the fed will think there has been enough tightening work -- for the kind of data they are looking at to decide how things go in september. in july there was a unanimous vote to hike 75 basis points. this week there will be plenty of data for policymakers as well. manufacturing sentiment and consumer demand in the u.s. with retail sales as well. plenty on the market to watch for. haidi: what has been soothing, not just the idea that potentially we have the possibility of a fed pitted, u.s. earnings as a whole have come in better than expected. we have seen an aggregate gain of about 9%. not so for asia. in this part of the world, we are seeing stocks whipped by what is happening with the taiwan situation, but also the

worst earnings forecast season since the beginning of the pandemic. earnings for the asia-pacific members sliding on aggregate, 16% in that quarter from a year earlier. the biggest decline in eight quarters, in court -- according to analysts. not a great deal of good news expected. >> a lot of expectations on how china performs, right? its economy and what it means. will the stimulus support the markets? a flood of data out of china monday should indicate gradually improving activity. however, recovery continues to be tested. let's bring in our chief correspondent in hong kong. plenty of data for investors, what are we expecting. >> a busy morning. a big data dump for july. we saw in june a pickup of

activity with lockdowns and shanghai. we are likely to see, according to most economists, a gradual pickup and continuation of this recovery. the question is, how much? will these new outbreaks of covid -- hainan island does not contribute a lot to gdp. about 0.6%. only about 0.5% of retail sales. it is a key travel destination and with some of these numbers from retail sales, we could get an indication of the risks with travel. many people are locked down on the island. not a bad place to be, but it shows the risk in the economy right now. we add those new loans as well, falling off accurate -- aggregate financing falling off friday. an indication that as an-two has

been surging, a broad indicator of money supply, there's plenty of liquidity at the banks. they are having a hard time lending. there is a confidence factor about what might come next. could there be more lockdowns because of covid zero? is -- are the property sector rose going to trickle into broader spending? mortgage boycotts? so much to digest on these numbers. we will get industrial production, retail sales, fixed asset investment which will likely be held up by infrastructure spending and stimulus from the government. lots of data today. busy day. haidi: lots to consider. what are be expecting? >> the mlf, we get that. we are looking at the forecasts. eight of 12 economist forecasts -- expect the central bank to withdraw cash through the mls for the first time this year by offering less cash than the 600

billion you wan that is maturing this month. the consensus is fro 400 billion you on injection. all of those economists expect the rate to be kept unchanged. that shift to a lower mlf of 400 billion is indicating that beijing is prioritizing limiting financial risk over ultra-loose liquidity to support growth. we will have to see, when we get all of this data at 10:00 a.m. local time, then the decision from pboc. >> -- haidi: stephen engle. we take a look at powerhouse falling income -- handily beating estimates, that full-year underlying at 3.7 9 billion aussie.

the u.s. steel market when it comes to bluescope fortunes continues to be the profit powerhouse. australia's largest steelmaker, we had seen previously raising the profit forecast by 12%. we are seeing strong numbers come through with a four year underlying profit beating expectations easily. $2.7 billion against 2.6 billion australian. bullish on stock. we will be getting more on these numbers from bluescope's managing director and ceo, joining us live on bloomberg tv at 10:00 a.m. hong kong, 12:00 noon sydney. shery: we are looking forward to treating in china. five of the biggest state owned companies announced plans to delist from u.s. exchanges. lots of volatility in the friday session. let's bring in annabelle. this includes china life, among

the big names. why now? >> the timing is interesting. it does come after the u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi's trip to taiwan come escalating tensions. what we got friday, five major state backed enterprises in china announcing in quick succession that they plan to delist from new york exchanges. that graphic there with some names, they are rounding out the list. the reason for this, china says it comes down to business concerns. these companies are in strategic sections, so beijing could be reluctant to hand over details to regulators. that is the ongoing issue, the multi-decade struggle between china and the u.s.. this self-imposed deadline from congress that unless chinese companies are willing to hand over audit papers to american

inspectors, they risk being delisted. the clock is ticking down to this deadline. so far, we haven't been able to get agreement from the two sides, but about 300 businesses face delisting risks. it really does underscore how tensions have ratcheted up between beijing and washington. shery: have we seen any analyst reaction so far? >> quite a few. the headline is that we can expect initial impact sentiment, but beyond that is looking muted. trading volumes are thin for adrs. some affects staying smooth with -- bloomberg intelligence says we still could see more delisting's to come, but the silver lining is that it could force china to reach some sort

of auditing deal for the companies's still listed in new york. alibaba is one of the biggest and it has said it wants to keep up with that structure. cnc markets do say the markets underscore the strained relationship between washington and beijing. the u.s. really no longer a rival center to raise capital and rising geopolitical risks could not be priced in as of yet. should -- haidi: former president trump says everything taken by federal agents from his home was declassified. democratic lawmakers are calling for a full review. let's bring in tony. explain to us what is going on here. we know these were top-secret documents, some of them. the president does have the

authority to declassify, did he? >> that is somewhat in dispute. we talked to a number of legal experts who say that is a murky claim. we had a senior democrat representative adam schiff, chairman of the intelligence committee, saying today that the way trump portrayed this declassification issue is "absurd." that is clearly in dispute but what is happening now is that congress -- both the senate and the house -- want to see what is in these documents. which, presumably, would happen behind closed doors since the justice department has been very careful about revealing anything

about this ongoing investigation. that is the new twist here. as we wait also for the fbi's affidavit. haidi: how does this issue play into the midterms, and potentially affect the next election? >> that is the big question. what has happened is that after -- immediately after the search of mar-a-lago, a lot of republicans rallied behind trump and were very forceful in defending him. now, that seems to be a bit more -- there seems to be more nuanced creeping into that. simply because we do not know, there's so much floating around that is not confirmed about what is actually in these documents.

that is a new wrench that has been thrown into the midterms and the politicking around that and potentially the 2024 election, if trump decides to run. haidi: let's get you to vonnie quinn with first world headlines. vonnie: a u.s. congressional delegation led by senator ed markey landed in taiwan sunday for a two day visit. they are meeting with the taiwanese president and other lawmakers. according to taiwan, the sessions include global supply chains and climate change. tensions with china hi after nancy pelosi's visit. chinese officials have signaled that thousands of tourists trapped in hotels on hainan could return. frustration over covid lockdowns sparked protests.

commercial flights for domestic passengers should resume monday. travelers may only fly out if there are no new cases in their tour group and hotel within the last seven days. salman rushdie recover -- recovering after being stabbed. he is on the road to recovery. he is said to have been removed from a ventilator sunday and is able to talk and even joke. the author suffered serious injuries friday after being stabbed multiple times shortly after taking the stage. tributes pouring in from wall street and beyond for andrew james comer the former deutsche bank co-ceo. his death at the age of 59 was announced saturday after a five-year battle with cancer. he had been credited with building banking businesses and turning -- into a global trading powerhouse.

global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. haidi: still ahead, u.s. inflation has pushed up commodity prices. shrinking demand outlook weighing on market sentiment. daniel hanh shows us later. up next, as traders become more cautious, -- discusses why they stay long on risks. this is bloomberg. ♪

we have come to a more structurally neutral position. what takes is higher from here is that following systematic funds from the 200 day moving average which is not actually the trigger, but the trigger mechanism for going long. if we got a break there, you're going to see a huge amount of wage buying. what has been working? cyclicals. continue to see that happening in the short-term. haidi: the buying a cerium trade you seem to be doing now is up quite the long risk scenario? >> it is. part of the reason we are seeing risk doing what it's doing is if you have a look at the liability side of the fed balance sheet, excess reserves were what banks are holding come they have been increasing at a faster than the fed's asset side of the balance sheet has been drawing down.

the market sees that as qe and these risky assets are working well. ethereum, which has its own idiosyncratic story today, is benefiting. liquidity may last for the short period, you want to go into the high space for assets, and that means crypto because there is no higher meter unless you want to go into game stocks, which i do not want to be part of. for me it has been working, it has been going up and it has -- that is what i wanted to see. the liquidity dynamics on the fed balance sheet continues. i think crypto continues to work. haidi: we have seen even the basket of unprofitable meme stocks really outperforming broader markets in the u.s.. as you take a look at that in the rebound we have seen across broader tech, which part of that market looks interesting? >> on the meme stocks, -- has been short covering.

you have seen that microstrategy. what is interesting is the level of core buying coming in. we have seen a significant pickup in core buying certainly in game stock. it looks like we are back again and i think that comes back to the liquidity dynamics. better data has been at the heart of that. you see a strong correlation between citigroup futures and the s&p. in this world, financials are ok. i think they are looking pretty good. energy has been working well. tack has been the place you want to go, as well as automobiles. those areas are working. i think the cyclical areas continue to work for now. we've got our eyes this week on real rates. if we see 10 year real rates move about of 50 basis -- move above 50 basis points, that could be a headwind for risk assets. it is not without risk, but we just continue to do what is working.

knowing that there is a massive trigger out there for further upside. that is the ctas and trend funds. if they were to buy on leverage come that would propel risk to move higher. our friend phil move comes back into play. haidi: great to have you. more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: let's look at u.s. futures. fourth straight week of gains being led by consumer as well as tech stocks. we are seeing softness across both s&p and dow futures. when it comes to the nasdaq, that long-term trend is continuing. we have seen about three quarters of u.s. corporate speeding expectations. this i this is xfinity rewards. our way of showing our appreciation. with rewards of all shapes and sizes. [ cheers ] are we actually going? yes!! and once in a lifetime moments. two tickets to nascar! yes! find rewards like these and so many more in the xfinity app.

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haidi: we will be getting a read on new zealand's performance services index for july. that state above 15 of the last four months. the sydney morning herald

reporting energy ministers have agreed on the electricity market goals, signaling that operators must zero in on emissions. we will be watching energy news, a new power station in new zealand's north island. they are shutting down the other station next june. it is a big week for earnings in australia. a order of the reporting results. we heard a beat from bluescope. stephen: good numbers from bluescope, considering the environment. all of the earnings we will hear from will have the asterisk next to them. the -- impact did beat estimates by $100 million. the dividend, $.25 and another share buyback coming back for shareholders to the tune of $500 million on top of the $630 million we saw over the past 12 months. lou scope makes about half of its -- probably more than half its revenue from north america. it has substantially completed

one of its major mills there. seal spreads weakening in the u.s. and asia, dealing with strong in put prices. demand holding upcoming even though you consider all of that and the outlook is looking reasonable for bluescope. even with the asterisk, pretty decent set of numbers. shery: like most major markets, it challenging environment for australian companies. what are we expecting to cure about the bigger picture as more results role in? >> about a quarter of the index will be reporting this week. among them, big retailers. we just heard from jb hi-fi, an electronics retailer in australia. good numbers there. sales and profit both leading estimates. this is going to give us a good gauge of how the consumer is doing in australia as well, against the backdrop of rising prices. particularly rising rates as well. the country's largest bank did issue a warning last week,

warning about the cost of limning -- living pressures on consumers. but again, even commonwealth bank coming through with slightly better than expected cash profits. all major corporations in australia seem to be doing pretty well but we are going to get a better idea by the end of the week. haidi: compared to the u.s. and u.k. recession fears, things haven't seen as bad for australia and new zealand. is that starting to get uncertain? >> in terms of inflation, we are still waiting to see how that evolves. we are going to get the rba minutes student and that would give us a clear picture on the inflation outlook. the next rate increase almost certainly going to happen in a couple of weeks. one of the major media outlets here did put out an extensive piece of coverage this morning about how a lot of us really and households are spending up to 60% of their income just

covering the basics. things are holding together ok now, but the rest of the year will give us a clear picture of just how resilient of the economy is as supply pressures mount. haidi: paul allen here. managing director and ceo mark masella at 10 a.m. hong kong. -- 10:00 a.m. vonnie: the chair of the u.s. house intelligence committee, adam schiff, says he has not seen evidence that materials the fbi seized from donald trump's home were impressed -- were properly declassified. trump said everything was declassified or covered by executive privilege. adam schiff says the argument is absurd and has asked intelligence to provide a damages estimate of the records. capitol police a man crashed his car into a barricade and fired his gun before shooting himself. the 29-year-old man may have set fire to his own car.

he was being approached by officers when he shot himself. it is still unclear why he did it. according to police commit does not appear the man was targeting members of congress. china life insurance among a group of chinese giants set to exit u.s. exchanges. five of china's largest firms announced their intentions to delist friday. about 200 chinese firms are facing possible delisting in the u.s.. unless beijing grants access to american auditors. -- levels at a key waypoint. expected to sit -- steady at an extremely low level as the climate crisis adds to europe's energy crunch. many barges cannot transit pass the marker west of frankfurt, where the water level is about 40 centimeters or below. currently 35 centimeters. the ride is western europe's most important river for transporting goods.

haidi: a billionaire investor has died at 62. dubbed india's warren buffett, due to his reputation for long-term equity investing and was among the most influence will market voices in the nation. started buying shares with a loan of $100 in 1985. along the way invested in some of india's most prominent names including its biggest jeweler and an airline startup. this is bloomberg. ♪ -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shery: the u.s. stock market rally continuing for four consecutive weeks, the longest rally this year. recovery could be facing a new hurdle. annabelle with the morning calls. it could be the end of an era for record share buybacks? annabelle: that's right. we saw big names forcing their buyback flags.

jp morgan, best buy, citigroup. we have seen record buybacks over the past few years, really since the start of the pandemic. about $1 trillion worth of share buybacks from executives here. any retreat really does strengthen what has been a critical crutch for sentiment in the market, given they are facing slowdown fears and inflation concerns. one of them saying this is actually the proper heading. we can take a look at why strategists are saying that. it is really down to the beginning outlook for earnings. and lowered ceo confidence. as for next year, the outlook is looking more uncertain. that is because of a post-u.s. tax stock taking effect. that could open the windows here for companies to fly forward in the second half, though unlikely. >> there's a worthy inflation numbers we have seen in the u.s. might be a head fake. annabelle: that's right.

the cio of morgan stanley's wealth management joined the what goes up podcast on bloomberg, talking about the outlook for inflation and those latest cpi numbers. she basically said, don't get too excited. numbers did come down a little, but we did see a better outlook for energy prices china has been a little weaker than expected. something more supportive for the inflation picture as well because less demand coming from there. a lot of things could have gone right, but do not expect the fed can celebrate that in any meaningful sense. we are looking ahead to the next fed rate hike and we had that university of michigan survey coming through, markets expecting a 50-50 chance of a three-quarter move at the next meeting. haidi: up next, the outlook for oil and the broader commodities market. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: the recent rise in oil prices, another record. aramco posted the biggest adjusted profit of any company globally. $40.4 billion. su keenan joins us with more. quite a windfall, but i can't help but ask, how long? given the pressure on prices. >> good question. we could be at the peak. high oil prices have been very good for saudi arabia. it's second quarter profit blows away all prior records. 40 and $.4 billion dwarfed the profit of any listed company in the world. free cash flow rose by 53% from a year ago. it is a windfall to reduce debt as well as invest in a huge expansion of its production capacity. in terms of outlook, it is betting the demand for chemicals will remain high. that is even as the world is

starting to look to transition away from fossil fuel. the company's ceo expects to oil demand to continue to grow despite the downward economic pressures. we are seeing this boom from other energy companies as well. exxon and shell recently posted record second-quarter earnings. the russian invasion of ukraine sending oil prices up $100 a barrel and causing margins to soar. there is a view that this could well be the peak of these major profits for big oil. haidi: oil prices have been easing. su: they have. in asia, west texas intermediate is down. they fell 2% friday but managed to post gains for the week. we are seeing west texas intermediate crude -- between

bullish and bearish headlines that have been hitting the market. traders weighing the prospects of higher demands this winter against the potential for a rainy and supply to return. iran said it could accept a european union nuclear deal if it gets the right guarantees. that could mean more oil on the market, but calming inflation could ease the rate of -- ease the pace of rate hikes by the fed. you are now looking at gas prices, an unexpected welcomed political break for the biden administration. gas prices recently fell below four dollars for the first time since march. u.s. energy secretary as saying u.s. gas prices should fall further. a lot of focus is now on where oil goes from here. options for west texas intermediate oil prices tend to skew lower. we are seeing more bearish -- for the near term which could be an indication of sentiment right now.

haidi: crude markets have been whipped by their is an bullish headlines. in recent weeks. let's get more analysis with -- and sometimes feels like we are not a hero there when it comes to oil, admits more broader ambiguity we see in the macro environment. >> at the moment, the variables impacting the oil market and the broader commodity system are quite significant. really they could go either way. short-term, it is extremely difficult to really get a true guide on where prices are going to trade. that is why we are seeing that volatility at the moment. certainly when you step back from those short-term issues and look at the broader schematics within the market, that is

really these ongoing supply-side issues. which are actually coming against a relatively positive outlook for demand. the market still looks fundamentally tight, but getting to that point is going to be a pretty rocky road. considering all of these external factors impacting the market at the moment. shery: let me get your view when it comes to the broader commodity complex, pertaining to the slowdown in china. look at this chart. we are getting domestic activity data points dropping later on today. we are expecting a bit of a pickup but ultimately when it comes to the big infrastructure push from the property market, how much is covid zero going to continue constraining the ability to get demand up? >> it is going to have a lasting impact. it is clearly weighing on

companies future expectations around demand. we are seeing this reluctance to really build inventory and start to plan for that medium-term outlook. until there's a little more clarity around that, it is hard to put a timeframe on that, then it is going to be this stop-start scenario. -- will obviously react to short-term adjustments in demand but ultimately the fed is not really planning for that future. i think that is going to weigh on sentiment and obviously demand as well. as i said, coming out of the pandemic, some of the more developed economies saw a pretty strong rebound. i expect that to be the case at some point in china, but it does not look like that will be short-term.

everyone has got to be relatively patient for that recovery to move into a more sustained phase where demand growth from commodities can ultimately occur. haidi: does that mean perhaps we are not going to see nasty supply deficits for commodities? what does a supply balance really look like in the commodities space for winter in asia? >> that is certainly a big issue. across energy markets at the moment. i do think the sheer scale of supply disruptions we are looking at, particularly in oil and gas, do offset quite significantly. the relatively subdued growth in demand is going to be a tough winter. particularly for europe, but even for china.

we have seen recently extreme weather there. heat in particular really driving electricity demand. we have seen as a consequence, small signs of disruption to output there. recently one of their top copper producers was forced to close temporarily because of a surge in electricity demand. it is showing signs are ready that we are at a fragile state and we are not even at peak winter. shery: a similar narrative for steelmaking as well, right? >> they are obviously concerned. there have been over the past few years, trying to curb output. i think with that drop, the

backdrop against the picture, i think they are going to remain relatively constrained on the output did that comes against a pretty fragile property market where we are still seeing a lot of issues there really constraining new construction into the sector. that is despite a push from authorities to boost infrastructure spending. it is on a pretty shaky basis at the moment. i suspect we are going to see potentially more downside as a consequence. haidi: what is the investment pipeline looking at as to any increase in coil -- coal production? >> on the lng side we are starting to see that come through, which is positive. companies have a difficult decision to make here. in the next year or two.

considering the lifeline of a lot of these projects, which can be 10 to 20 years long and billions of dollars of investment, against that accelerated push for renewables, we are confident lng is going to take a significant part of this transition phase now in the energy markets. -- is enough to reduce enough supply into the markets to balance it out. i think it will. it may take time. certainly a leap of faith by some companies to really put that capital into play with those risks, long-term risks still hanging over the back. shery: do you see an enduring shift from natural gas to oil going into this winter because of the situation of supply? >> i agree with what the --

talked about last week. we are seeing gas fuel switching to the economics at the moment makes sense and i think the shortages in the energy market are acute enough even if those economics were not as attractive as they are, to really push utilities into that switching. it is certainly benefiting oil demand overall. offsetting the weakness we saw emerge through the dry season in the u.s.. shery: great catching up with you. senior commodity strategist, his views on the greater commodities space. tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the days big newsmakers. yet in-depth analysis from the daybreak team. listen through the app or bloomberg radio. plenty more ahead.

haidi: wells fargo planning to shrink its mortgage empire, which what -- once -- sources say the bank's leadership may begin the retreat by -- outside the mortgage firm. that generated roughly one third of its $205 billion in new home loans last year. the strategy shift follows changes in the -- and years of costly revelatory scrutiny. -- bond management has increased its holding a big tech stocks following a sharp rally. according to a record tory filing, george soros's firm bolstered stakes in amazon and alphabet. adding a new $20 million position in test lab. the billionaire philanthropist investment firm manage more than 28 billion dollars as of the start of 2022. chinese developers receiving a -- loan which would potentially alleviate market concern about liquidity. a source says the company has

reached an agreement to sign a contract for the loan with state owned and foreign banks as early as this week. the world's largest managers including blackrock and state street reportedly cutting pay and taking other steps to rein in costs. blackrock plans to postpone hiring for more senior roles. pay and employee benefits drop 15% last quarter. the plans come as customers withdraw assets and stay on the sidelines. shery: look at the currency space right now. we are seeing a little bit of marginal strength following the dollar. this of course coming at a time when we are seeing on the others of the -- pressure for the euro. although we are seeing a little bit of recovery on that front. the offshore yuan holding steady as the aussie also trading. after the best week since 2020 against the u.s. dollar. we continue to see the widening

yield differentials between the rba and the federal reserve. haidi: let's look at u.s. futures. the fourth straight week of gains, the s&p 500, some resilience being seen. mastec pricing moving into a technical bull market with the long-term trend still intact. a little bit of softness going into the start of trading with all u.s. futures sitting a little lower.

♪ >> you are watching daybreak asia coming to live from new york, sydney and hong kong. we are counting dow