dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani

burger in london alongside manus cranny in dubai, and these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: crisis compounded. european gas prices continue to surge ahead of another supply disruption, as the german chancellor goes dutch looks to canada and search of alternatives. -- looks to canada in search of alternatives. >> we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and doing it as fast as possible. manus: parity recession fears and the euro is pushed down to a two decade low. losses after saudi arabia's energy minister warns opec could cut production to curb a drop.

his royal highness else a floor in the market but it is about fx in terms of risk for me. good morning. dani: good morning. it is amazing how the narrative of the market has changed. equities the higher with hopes of the fed pivot to of session over the energy crisis in europe with prices rocketing ever higher. manus: surging away. we are not in extreme volatility yet. let me take you to ground zero for unseeded risk. volumes on short positions on euro-dollar going into jackson hole are monster. oil has a floor, 4%, his royal highness talks about potentially having to cut because there is a schizophrenic divorce between future prices and reality of the oil market. i love it, a schizophrenic oil market.

the euro cascade. parity, again, seeing what we haven't seen in 20 years because of the very essence of the energy catastrophe in europe putting pressure. my last guess said the ecb is behind the curve in rate hikes, they have to do 1.5%. put that in your fx pipe and smoke it. we are not done yet, citigroup calling 18% in terms of inflation. a crushing blow to sterling. good morning. dani: morning. the calmness of equity futures belies yesterday's extreme volatility in s&p 500 futures. they are unable to hang onto the s&p 500 futures, while euro stoxx and dax futures had slightly lower.

there was a change in the market after the friday -- now dealers are selling with the market drops and buying when the market rebounds. but this is a stock market and i think it is driven more by the fx picture that you have been laying out, more by the energy crisis and recession. there is your view on europe and the u.s.. let's had to asia, and look at markets with juliette saly in singapore. juliette: certainly the same here. the energy sector really the only bright spot on the rebound in oil, but a risk off session for fourth session across asian markets and being led lower by japan. you had this move by chinese authorities to try and stabilize the property market, $29.3 billion for special developer loans, but not really helping out the property stocks to month -- too much, down in the opening session.

you talk about fx, we've been watching closely. earlier today, some verbal intervention to try and stop the slide against the greenback. he saw a bounce on the won. the dollar again king, up about 2/10 of a percent. asian stocks, down for a fourth session. holding around a one month low. we have gone through the 50 day moving average and it looks like we will continue to fail at that point. if we get through that month, back at a two-year low on the index. manus: thank you very much. juliette saly with asian markets. let's get to our team of reporters around the world. andrew james with the production running from opec. birgit jennen is in berlin on

the gas prices. and david powell on what the trip to canada will mean. dani: let's start with the oil story, the saudi arabia prime minister saying opec might the forced to cut output as the futures market has become increasingly disconnected from fundamentals. we are joined by andrew james. is this a broken market and what does that mean for what opec does from here on out? andrew: i am not sure it is a broken market, the saudi's talking about a disconnect between futures prices and market fundamentals. the saudi energy minister also saying things about unsubstantiated stories about demand destruction. interesting to contrast their attitude.

they require hands-off when prices are going up but now they are going down and they are talking about decisive action. they are talking about production caps and this will make things interesting heading into the next opec-plus meeting in early september. we saw a big market reaction yesterday when this news came out. oil dropped as much as 5%. we are up moderately today. but yeah, expectation is there could be cuts, but by the market reaction, i don't think the view is that we have a huge reduction fear. manus: it is not the amount, andrew, it is the messaging. we just had a cut and one would say to appease global geopolitics. throws a spanner in all of the

lobbying we have seen. let's see what happens. andrew james with the latest on opec. to the power crisis in germany in europe, in germany, power over 700 euros per megawatt hour for the first time. there is a crisis over the reliance on russian oil supplies. chancellor schulz is in canada. he emphasized the government is working hard to wean its dependence off russian imports. >> we are deciding on making it more easy for companies to switch the fuel they use, for instance, going back to oil, although it has consequences for climate the next one or two years, but to reduce the necessity of importing gas. manus: let's get to birgit jennen. here we are, germany -- i had a guest yesterday and he said in

the front page in germany, they no longer have cobra charts, they have energy storage charts. we have entered real crisis levels, heavily? birgit: you will be really difficult, there is no doubt. germany is facing in the coming months a shortage in energy. we have to see how the winter is. the government is looking closely at the temperature, in autumn. they still have to fill up the storage. at the moment, 80%. to get us through the winter and the next winter, they know they have to build out more. this is also the reason why basically olaf scholz is traveling the world. he's been to norway and now he is in canada to basically get gas. dani: thank you very much. birgit bnn -- birgit union will

be back to cover the energy crisis. we will get europe pmi's for august, they will provide more insights on the energy costs and the risks that russia cuts off supply. for more, let's get to david powell. i am assuming these numbers, they will not even have the worst of it. david: things are likely to get worse. they won't reflect the recent surge in energy prices we just spoken of. but in all likelihood, the survey will remain in contractionary territory after having fallen below 50 already in july. manus: david, welcome back. we've got you up early and we will keep you coming back again and again. my guest in the last hour said the ecb is so far behind the curve they will have to not just raise rates by 50 basis points,

but 150 basis points, and this is where the catch of game begins to come into play. does that even make sense? 150, 250 basis points by christmastime? david: we look at 1.5 by spring of next year, and total 200 basis points from the start of this hiking cycle, because they began at -50. the next step is likely to be a move in september of 50 basis points and then we expect 25 at each meeting after that until march. manus: ok. david, thank you. david powell, our senior euro economist. coming up, the perfect storm. we discussed the euro slide as concerns mount across the region. dani: later in the program,

hedge funds make record bets and the fed -- make record bets the fed will stick to its plan in jackson hole. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> europe hasn't underperformed

as much as i think it should. i think the fx market is mispricing the situation in europe. the situation is a complete rethink of the model of the euro zone. it is strange for us to think of the euro starting off slowly. think it should be faster. dani: jordan rochester there. he says we could see euro hitting $.95. we certainly punctured low parity and have stated their this morning, at a two decade low. i like what jordan says, we have been transfixed by the fed in this dovish pivot narrative. that's part of the reason why the euro hasn't had as a dramatic of a fall. perhaps we have been ignoring how bad things might get in the region. manus: and the very essence of

what rochester had to say goes to the heart of the issue, the explosion in energy prices. looking at euro-dollar, you were talking about the 20 year low and cascading lower, all the way down. down over 1% in the past two days. let me show you the energy market. the explosion in energy prices for france and generally -- and germany. record prices in electricity, one year forward in french and german electricity prices. 700 euros per megawatt hours for the first time ever in german energy yesterday. it is hitting the region, facing a multitude of issues right now. the fallout from the war in ukraine driving the energy and food costs and severe drought. let's put it to our guest, a multi-asset strategist. good morning.

>> the euro is not in a good spot, that's for sure, we've got surging energy prices, and even a hawkish ecb is more dovish than a dovish fed. fx is a relative game and we expect the euro to fall down to 95 since against the u.s. dollar the next few months as well. it is hard to see how europe will get out of this binder because inflation is high and is putting the central bank in a difficult position. dani: i might be a bit dramatic here, so feel free to put me in my place, but do we even care if you're trying to decide what to do with your portfolio, what the ecb is going to do if we are looking at the possibility of europe freezing the main growth engine, the main exporter, germany, unable to do so in an energy crisis? kiran: it is potentially a very severe headwind for the global

economy and potentially, as olaf scholz was talking about earlier, germany starts shifting energy production away from gas and toward oil, because the falling oil prices has been an important contributor to the decline in inflation and inflation expectations, that has helped support the market the past few weeks. you could see oil the mind -- oil demand rising because of the gas crisis in europe. manus: it just seems so -- every morning you get in the car in the car and you read one doom story after the other. jackson hole, sterling crushed, euro mangled, china imploding. how do you sleep at night, and how do you deploy -- morgan stanley with the big headline, cash more appealing than stocks.

would you agree with that at the moment in the short-term? kiran: over the short term, we think there is more chance the market falls than rises. a lot has been priced in in terms of a fed pivot and soft landing. i think these anchors will still need to be tested. if the oil prices start to rise, what will happen in winter, a lot of risk isn't in the market right now. there is more of a chance that stocks fall than rise. but what if they do rise, do you have a plan that you are getting investors for the long-term? that is the big risk for our clients in this kind of period, the volatility deter some from the market and they never get back in over the course of three or four years and it gets really costly. dani: this idea we don't have a grip on exactly how things will look, everyone was transfixed by this citi story yesterday that inflation in the u.k. could reach 18% in gas prices.

are you preparing for this kind of environment right now? kiran: we think we will see pound weakness as well, 1.15 against the u.s. dollar, and the bank of england forecasting the largest surge in energy prices. an adjustment is taking place in europe, this change in power prices, and it will take a long time for it to work through in terms of fx rates and the implications for the broader economy. i think for investors, staying well diversified at this time is really important. europe is not a place we think it pays to place bets right now. manus: but you still favor the u.s., is my sense. you use these rallies and we've had months of rallies in july and august, technically line up the portfolio. i presume that is don't chase the rally but reduce excess

exposure. where would you actively reduce exposure the most? kiran: we think and technology is one area where we are concerned because we had that big rally recently and of course parts of that spectrum are cyclical, think about the digital media names and semiconductor names. if we see a deeper recession in the months ahead, those will be negatively affected. if the fed is more hawkish than expected at jackson hole as well, that could stay ahead of technology. areas we like our energy because we think that is a good hedge against some of the downside scenario portfolios. and the u.k., perhaps ironically because of the weakness in the pound, but it is quite a defensive market at the moment. dani: i am guessing again some of those large cap u.k. names are not --

equities held up relatively well, especially with the u.s., but when you look at the global picture and europe in those exposed to the energy crisis, are you expecting, are you pricing a severe earnings recession to come in some of these equities? kiran: i think we were. the lows, we were looking at -10, starting to get priced in. we had this rally the past few weeks and a lot of the negativity got stagnant. we think there's more chance of seeing downside in the near turn than upside, some of the concern about growth needs to come into the parties before they look more appealing on a tactical basis. manus: how bearish are you for jackson hole? the whole world shorting euro-dollar, and there is anaphylactic shock on the short end of the curve. our u.s. fixating -- are you as

fixating? kiran: the pivot story could be an important factor for the market because one of the key risks we've been looking out for is inflation in the near term because of lower commodity prices and supply chain issues unwinding, and too many investors get sucked into the rally and believing the story that inflation is on constant downward path. perhaps even the fed gets sucked into it. then we have an issue later in the year, perhaps because of the power crisis in europe or other issues, wage stickiness, and then you get the pivot and that would be much worse. perhaps it's not the worst thing in the world that the fed is turning from the pivot story at jackson hole this week. manus: can i just say for the record, i am one of the users that got sucked in. i can open up the pension statements. not anymore.

dani: i was going to say, i am thanking you because it is a lot of doom and gloom but it is great to have you on. thank you, as always. maybe we will end with something to look forward to. if you've got dollars and you want to buy house in the hamptons, it might be the time. people are slashing prices. we will discuss next. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "daybreak: europe." velocity, channeling my inner tom keene. take it away. 95 from ubs as a call. dani: some others not as

dramatic, 97, we are hearing from kiran that 95 as possible. steady declines in the euro, down 2/10 of a percent, trading at 99.21, the drama continues even in this low liquidity period. manus: we will go back to the boards and moment, juliette saly has the first word news. juliette: the u.s. has warned russia is planning to launch strikes against ukraine government facilities in the coming days, after vladimir putin called a car bomb that killed an allies daughter a crime. the u.k. is prepared to -- the ukraine is prepared to celebrate independence day this week. anthony found she is set to step down at the end of the year. he ran the institute of allergy

and infectious diseases since 1974. the 81-year-old says he is leaving to pursue the next chapter of his career. british airways says it is scrapping a 5000 return flights in the coming months. this after canceling about 13% of its summer schedule due to a staffing shortage and extended capacity curbs. passengers can rebook or get refunds. global news 24 hours a day. manus: pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better! yes you can! i can do better, too! now you really can do better! switch to the fastest mobile service - xfinity mobile.

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny in dubai.

dani burger. dani: european gas prices continue to surge with another supply disruption. german chancellor schulz looks to canada in search of alternatives. >> we are working hard to become independent and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen and we are doing it as fast as possible. dani: below paritydani: recession fears push the euro down to a two decade low. opec on alert. crude prices pair losses -- pare losses. manus, good morning to you. it continues to be the euro taking another leg lower this morning as recession in europe is top of a will -- of

everyone's minds. manus: no central banks seem able to save the currency whether it is sterling or the euro and it is ultimately no exhaustion in the dollar. i like what jordan rochester has said. this is the fourth year in a row you have seen the euro-dollar collapse. so parity -- sub parity. the fx market is mispricing the energy crisis. those are the words of nomura's jordan rochester. even looking at the lowest price since march 2020. we are looking at the central bank pricing. even that cannot save sterling. this is a dollar story as well as an energy crisis and economic vortex. if you are going to -- to the front door. that is what they say.

we might actually have to cut opec production. dani: i'm going to be pretty quick with this equity check because i think what you are showing is what is moving these markets. a deterioration in the euro, in a pound that is moving equities. we are seeing pretty substantial losses, down .2% for the future session. manus: did not take long to kill off the summer of love. of course unseating the technology rally. to the german power issues. markets panic, quite literally panic, over the country -- dependence on russian energy supplies. olaf scholz is in canada. part of the push is emphasizing his government is working hard to end the dependence on russian gas. >> we are working hard to become independent and we are doing a lot of investments to make it happen. we are doing it as fast as ever possible, never such an

infrastructure. using the processes because of the difficulty that germany is facing to make sure we can move through regulatory hurdles more quickly. it is something we are willing to do but there needs to be a business case. there needs to be a case for germany. manus: let's get to our correspondent in berlin. the scale of the crisis is laid bail in the market in terms of energy prices. how palpable is it at home in germany where you are? how real is the energy crisis? >> i think at the moment, people are sort of getting by. people are cutting back a little bit on their own consumption.

but really, people have not yet hit the real impact it can have if gas is going to be cut further back so we will have to see. the government is working really hard to make sure that during the wintertime that people basically can still keep their homes and industry at the same time can continue to produce. for that, they need to stock up there gas storage. we also need to make some other changes in order to fill the gaps. they are looking at keeping nuclear plants working. when we talk to the government, they say maybe we are going to get through this. the next winter, then that will be a problem. dani: in terms of the government reaction, you are talking about dealing with industry but government reaction politics when it comes to dealing with people -- potentially dealing

with people who are having rolling blackouts. what is fiscal policy going to do when it comes to addressing these sorts of issues? birgit: that is a very good question. so far, the finance minister. we can do this all without actually losing the constitutional -- keeping to the strict limits of keeping that under control. one has to see what is going to happen. during the winter, people will feel the extra cost and their bills. -- in their bills. i think they want to be seen as moving too quickly into further expansionary policy so the pressure is clearly building up. the government is thinking of another package of measures. i do wonder how this is going to

be financed. manus: in terms of energy rationing, that is part of the debate. nuclear is part of the debate. they are all on the table. what is the least toxic policy for this chancellor to pursue to politically survive? birgit: the thing is, it has to be a mixture of everything. they need on the one hand -- they need to make sure what i said before that the energy supply is maintenance. if the economy -- the economy continues to run and that is crucial for the government and for the mood in germany not to switch. there is already now a risk. we do see people becoming frustrated, especially to ease them. there is some unrest or at least protests. so he has to make sure really

there is a balance to be maintained at his own party is going to be continuing to back him. once he is losing popularity, his own party will increase pressure and then ruling in this three-part coalition will be more difficult. dani: thank. bloomberg's birgit jennen throughout the morning helping us with this story. let's get to the head of commodity is for s&p and dow jones indices. fiona, birgit jennen was talking about the political story. you said natural gas rivals oil as the commodity shaping geopolitics. given the pressure that politicians are feeling with this crisis unfolding, are you seeing mistakes being made with how we are addressing the energy crisis right now? fiona: if you are a politician or energy minister today, you have one of the toughest jobs

going around and it is certainly not when i would like to take on. as you have been talking about this morning, germany is still up. you can use germany as an example. they built up contingencies on russia over the decades and is trying to switch that within a matter of months and some of the alternatives that they have over the short or medium term are relatively unpalatable. cole or -- coal or atomic energy. manus: always good to get you on the show. record prices in france and germany. everyone is saying it is getting worse but have we even begun to extrapolate while russia switches off before the end of the year? fiona: russia has weaponized energy. they still have the option -- manus: i'm talking about a double escalation of that. i know they have weaponized it. 1000 euros per kilowatt hour. do you think the market has

genuinely extrapolated the real weaponization of oil and gas before sanctions kick in at christmas? fiona: they would tell us markets rarely priced in the worst-case scenarios so that is something certainly to consider. we have seen them turn off the caps on and off. arguably, maybe the market is not yet pricing a worst-case scenario. dani: what is it going to take for us to price that worst-case scenario? what is the catalyst going to be? fiona: the catalyst will unfortunately be the action which is cutting off. while there's still some -- while europe is still buying some russian oil, markets -- market participants have some hope that we will get through

this. we are concerned about the winter after that. that may be the catalyst when the expectation that this is not a short-term event which becomes more prevalent in the market. manus: i am seriously looking up my ticker for coal. if i take my mind back, do you remember the last day where it went over and it went late over the wording around coal, etc.? they are opening new coal mines in australia. coal kept the u.k. open and running. coal is becoming re-embedded in the european energy mix. how big is coal? how much bigger will coal become? we are in a moment where the light literally could technically go out in the u.k., could.

it's a risk. how big will coal become? is it politically palatable to have more coal? fiona: it will be very difficult to have more coal over an extended period of time. it has the advantage that it is great and may be if we need to use more than over the short term, you know, they will come to terms with that but it is essentially unpalatable over the long term if we are committed to the energy transition. put that in a very difficult position. dani: i'm thinking about the volatility we have seen in trading across commodities, be it oil, the energy story, and the fact that it is happening in august. the summer months, everyone is away. what happens when everyone gets back to their desks? what does trading look like after the summer? fiona: we have seen the oil market. increase in volatility.

some of that comes from the fact that trading volumes are low. i think it is because general uncertainty about where prices are going in that conflict between -- we do have a tight global oil market. that's against the backdrop of higher u.s. dollar, increasing interest rates, and growing concern about economic slowdowns. i am not sure when those come back from their holidays, whether that is interest in these markets that will pick back up. manus: they are all trading. they have not stopped trading. they have another large glass of whatever to get through the volatility. speaking of which, the saudi oil

minister comes out and says extreme volatility, there is a disconnect between the futures and the -- there is a schizophrenia not in my mind but in the oil market. how disconnected are the futures to the physical tightness? fiona: they do a good job of representing what is happening in the physical. maybe there is a slight disconnect. the oil market today, the oil derivatives market today is telling us that there's massive uncertainty. there is no consensus around supplies. i think the markets are doing their job. manus: do you think abs is

flying that kind of a schizophrenia, yo-yo market? is that a smokescreen for him to make room for iran? do you think that is what he is doing, kite flying? fiona: opec is not currently meeting its target production. i'm not sure at the end of the day if there was an announcement of the cut, what that would mean for the physical market. it may mean they are already not reaching the current target. manus: thank you very much. fiona boal, head of commodities and s&p dow jones. coming up in the show, brace, brace, brace. the pmi's are hitting the slate in 20 minutes, rocketing inflation, slowing growth, gathering pace across the continent. we have the story on bloomberg as the euro-dollar tanks and

other .25%. bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny in dubai. dani burger alongside me in london. headlines from around the world. juliette saly is with us from singapore. juliette: elon musk has subpoenaed his longtime friend, jack dorsey, in his legal battle with the social media giant. he is speak -- seeking to collect data to show twitter understated how much of its customer base is made up of spam and robot counts. thousands of people are being subpoenaed by both sides ahead of the expedited trial in

october. ford is cutting 3000 jobs to fund its shift towards electric vehicles. the cuts will come primarily in the u.s. with some positions eliminated in canada and india. the ceo said the company has too many workers. he wants to build 2 million electric vehicles the year by 2026. zoom shares fell after it predicted sales and profits below estimates. these annual sales going to 4.4 billion dollars, down from its projection in may. the dynamic boom has -- as competition intensifies from microsoft teams and that is your bloomberg business flash. dani: juliette saly in singapore. we get a slew of european pmi this morning for august. they will provide insight for challenges facing the euro area economy.

it threatened to tip the region into a recession. we are joined by our guest for bloomberg economics. how should we be viewing this pmi considering that there is a big --for more deterioration for the months coming? >> want to look at how much they slide. in july, the number for the composite number was already in negative territory, signaling the economy was contracting and that was led by difficulty in the manufacturing sector. that will give us a sense of what businesses are trying to contend with right now as those energy prices soar with russia cutting off the gas. manus: the debate is where we are with inflation. if we look at the energy narrative and the inflation is up 40% year on year, i think valerie has that.

when you look at that, are you prepared as an economist to say inflation is unanchored? it is becoming onboard, untethered. you can no longer say it is a temporary drift higher. >> the problem is it is not just energy. we are seeing higher prices, price increases in the cost of food which is also a result of the war in ukraine. we also see that broadening out to most of the goods in the basket used to calculate inflation, goods and services. essentially, it is becoming more widespread and not only are we worried about the actual inflation numbers, we are seeing signs of life in wage increases. that is the signal of further inflation down the road. dani: when it comes to expectations getting entrenched, i wonder what fiscal policy does

to make this better. bloomberg has the story, looking to fast-track emergency spending package to help people cope with surging inflation. what happens if there are more subsidies to help folks pay out for what is going to be much more expensive energy costs? >> the company is already acting at capacity. in the u.k., we see that in the labor market which is very tight. unemployment at a very low level. unemployment is at a 40 year low. essentially, there's more stimulus and the government and that would stoke inflationary pressures because the economy is already operating at capacity. the best way to think about the fiscal spending is to target those most in need. you don't want broad giveaways to everyone, the most vulnerable in society, which is what central banks have been saying. they need to target these subsidies so those most in need get them. we cannot have the more huge

stimulus package that is broad-based. manus: david powell with the stall for pmi's. our senior euro area economist for bloomberg economics. coming up, pound under pressure. surging u.k. yields fail to save the pound. we talk fx on bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i am manus cranny in dubai. dani burger in london. the bank of england, rate hikes alone -- have a look at this. two year yields.

the pound still getting -- against a triumphant dollar. this is what the market things is going to happen. we have this move. 231 basis points of hikes >> in by may of next year and still, the pound cannot get a bid at all and this -- dani: it leads to a lot of people saying that pound and euro trading like nem currency that even the rate spread is not healthy for lift them and adding to that, i still think it's really remarkable's, 18% inflation in the u.k. is what they are predicting if we get a gas prices. this is inflation being priced into those yields. what can an ecb or boe do to curb inflation coming from a gas crisis? manus: there is a level in the piece by jordan

rochester. he got more twitter followers than both of us put together. the fx market for him is mispricing energy prices. where does it go to? 97, 95. i like what jordan said. fx -- are you surprised there is not a more aggressive slump in the euro? dani: euro falling virtually against everything. rochester saying we have been focusing too much perhaps on that narrative but markets certainly alive and awake to the issue when it comes to european recession. more market next. this is bloomberg. ♪

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dani: -- >> good morning. i am anna edwards in london. mark cudmore joins us from sing