>> good morning from dubai.

i am manus cranny. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the stories that cite your agenda. global equities turn higher as investors look to jay powell's much-anticipated speech. the fed rates indicating a willingness to do what it takes to tame inflation. >> it is very important we are clear on our communication about the destination we are headed and i think that is important which is we have to get interest rates higher to slow down demand and bring inflation back to our target. >> another day of record energy prices in europe with leaders set to take drastic measures. tech relief. concerns ease for u.s. listed chinese firms after reported progress in talks between officials of the two countries paid warm welcome to the show. we are finally there.

what will jay powell say to the market? esther george is readying the bond market for 4% rates at a glide path. we will hear more from esther george and kathleen hays from jackson hole in just a moment. a quick snapshot of risk. stocks are facing the prospect of 4%. reasons to be bullish. higher wages is not good news for the equities story and we are leaning far too much on cpi. the reasons to be bullish are than a bit thin. dax gone with a rally of .4%. have a look at the bond markets. we are focused on 50, 75 basis points, but you have a yield curve which has bounced from the -50 to 73 and this is

significant. this suggests that perhaps the worst has passed in the bond market. the dollar remains resilient. 18% overvalued on a relative basis, relative effective exchange basis. the past 10 years. is the dollar exhausted and something that may come into play? what will jay powell communicate to the market? we are going to the higher ground and we are going to hang out there for a while. kathleen hays is with me from jackson hole. i love that line. steve stitching ski is tracking the energy story. talking through the good news on the u.s. listed chinese stocks. as ever, it threads the needle of the markets from singapore so the financial world is counting down to the fed chair, jay powell's hotly anticipated speech in jackson home.

the fomc member esther george told bloomberg it is important to clarify the destination that rates are heading to. >> we have more room to go. we would bring the rates down quickly and i have seen that in some of the forecasting. it is a bit remarkable to me. >> over 4%? >> could be over 4%. i do not think that is out of the question but you will not know that i think until you begin to watch the data. manus: you will not know until you are there. kathleen hays did the interview in jackson hole. thank you for staying up late for us. it is a clear message. that destination is significantly higher than where we are now. >> it's also very important that esther george said it is remarkable that they are going to start raising rates. at least until recently, the

quick pick by the market. maybe it is a bit weaker. might have to pivot. mary daly, the fed president, just a couple of weeks ago, this idea that there is a hump that it's going to go up and start coming down, it just seems totally unrealistic and that is one very important point and this question about how much higher they may go, not only did she agree in the interview with us that it could go above 4%, 5%, when i asked her about what john taylor told us a couple of days ago, author of the taylor rule on bloomberg television, he said they should be aiming for 5% and maybe even higher. she said we could go higher. is jay powell going to signal that? how is he going to signal it? what context will he put that in? he will tell us about the update. >> look at how the latest jobs report was.

his inflation starting to break? the year-over-year number has started to cool off a little bit and so has the ppi. how long will they keep it up? how long will they keep it there? i hope you can signal to us that it takes a recession to do this, if that is what happens in the fall out, that is what we will have to do. we will see. manus: as your interview with -- kathleen, great interview with the rbnz central bank governor. watch, wait, and worry, the natural resting state of the central bank. i loved it. you push him on what level of growth drop which he tolerate and what central bankers drop? i found interesting you talked about zero growth around the world is what we might need. kathleen: exactly and i think that was very wise, too. in many ways, we know that this is a global problem. we can say central banks blew

it. they misjudged inflation, they overstimulated, etc., but bottom line, on top of that, there was all these other things that they did not cause. supply chain constraints. in order to battle all that and push back, very slow growth could be and probably will be required. if central banks are not willing to signal that they are not going to help change expectations, maybe that is another big part of this. you have to change people's expectations about what the central banks are going to do and what that means so that you can start reaching that. it was very interesting. i pushed him on how high he will go. we really think that this is the top. we think that we are there. it is a pretty strong message and again, i think it does apply not just to the rbnz and the fed but to a lot of central banks around the world.

manus: thank. we will catch up on monday with the big reveal. kathleen in jackson hole. you can catch the special coverage. the whole team are at the symposium right now for bloomberg tv and we will hear from a host of fed officials. pressure is mounting on european leaders as the energy prices soared to levels we have not seen since the early weeks of the russian invasion of ukraine. let's bring in stephen in singapore. the pressure on leaders is building. what actions can they take? it differs greatly, doesn't take, in terms of which country in which political persuasion you are talking about. >> absolutely. you look at the actions that they have taken so far and a lot of it is involuntary. telling industries to cut their demand as much as they can, aiming for 15% demand cut from last year.

at the same time, they put together basically a $280 billion bailout package to help lighten the blow across the e.u., but the fact of the matter is, that is not enough, so they are gathering to figure out what are the next steps, what can we do next? you have the czech republic, you know, they are potentially saying let's look at the energy price cap according to local reports. that is one other thing that they could do. you have france kind of pushback on that idea because they are not in nearly as dire a situation. they want the free market to continue. there are some economists who say if you put a price cap, that might get folks to consume more energy because they know that prices will not increase so that might not solve the problem. it would lighten the load for consumers but france, while they have nuclear power issues, they have a pretty big fleet of nuclear reactors and they are in a generally good situation and they should be fine for the

winter. but other countries, potentially germany or other neighbors around their could be in a much more dire position when temperatures turn colder. manus: that is interesting. we are showing from the gtv library, stephen, natural gas up 360% year-to-date in europe. european coal up over 200%. those are just some of the inflationary and indeed destructive elements for society to deal with. thank you very much. stevens to tim ski, great work on the energy crisis as the leaders of europe are set together. talks between beijing and washington to avoid the delisting of about 200 companies from the new york stock exchange is is gathering pace. officials are discussing the plan to let u.s. inspectors travel to hong kong and review the documents of chinese businesses. she is our chief china markets correspondent in hong kong. does this make a u.s.-china deal

more likely? >> good morning, manus. it is good news if true. this has been something that has been under negotiation for a very long time and it has become not just a financial market consideration, not just a regulatory problem, but almost geopolitical problem more than anything else and when you take that context of u.s.-china relations, which are only worsening, we have u.s. senator marsha blackburn in taipei today. that is the third visit from a -- in taiwan this month alone. when you take that more problematic geopolitical context and really think about what this means for u.s.-china relation, if we do have a deal on the adrs coming through, it's very positive signal. manus. manus: what are the investors saying? you know, we are looking about

the movement of alibaba from the mainland, relisting in hong kong. i was starting -- chatting to stephen earlier. lots of people saying they couldn't without chinese exposure at the moment. can you tie that together for me? >> that has been already a movement from, as you say, from new york to hong kong. hong kong is seen as a big fish eerie of that. we are seeing volumes pick up and if you look at the report, the deal would benefit hong kong in the way the financial auditing would take place here so really kind of reinforcing hong kong's position as a global financial center so that is being taken positively. the key concern, you are seeing that reflected in market today. hang seng tech index is not really rising. no follow-through from that big move overnight and that is because the big question is, will the fcc accept this? is the u.s. going to push back again on a deal with china?

or are we really nearing a deal where the two sides will meet halfway? that is the big question and it is a lot of skepticism in the market, manus. manus: thank you so much for putting the contacts there for us. our chief china markets correspondent in hong kong. let's get the market reaction with jewels because there's a number of these factors at play. put it together. juliette: you have seen a bit of skepticism creeping particularly in the afternoon session, only slightly higher on the hang seng tech index that we did rally 6% yesterday but importantly, this index is flirting with the 100 day moving average. morgan stanley says you could see a little bit more rally coming through. some of the short squeeze factors are not quite reflected in the market and also esg asset management telling us the fact that both sides are talking could be a positive sign on the china risk premium overall. let's have a look at what we are

seeing in asian markets as we await jackson hole. we are higher for a second session and on track for a small weekly gain of around .25%. flat after yet another big week for investors in that market on the back of that $146 billion worth of further stimulus that was pledged and we did see once again yet another stronger-than-expected -- from the pboc, not being reflected in the weakness that you are seeing in this currency but it does show us that authorities are not that comfortable with the depreciation that we are seeing in the yuan which is holding near the two-year low. on the back of kathleen's excellent interview with adrian orr, the kiwi as well, the worst-performing g10 currency after adrian orr told bloomberg that perhaps the rbnz is getting close to the end of that aggressive tightening cycle. manus. manus: your homeland is not anywhere near that. juliette saly in singapore

there. coming up on the show, we are watching and waiting on wyoming. i love alliteration. the latest from jackson hole ahead of the highly anticipated each from jerome powell this afternoon. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> i know what they should do. they should not blink. but it has been very difficult to call this fed. it has failed at analysis, at forecasts, at communication, so it's very difficult to say what this fed is going to do. easy to say what it should do but it's much harder to say what it is going to do and that is why you get this disconnect you have been talking about between

the markets and the fed. >> that is the causative queen college, cambridge university, mohamed el-erian. my guest is the senior portfolio manager, head of global fixed income. it is a difficult day for you. every bond person in the world out there -- mohamed el-erian failed and analysis, failed at forecasting, failed at communicating. so tell me this. what do you need to hear from jay powell to understand the trajectory and destination of this fed? >> i think he said it right. i do not think it is a time to blank. that is what we are hoping for this afternoon.

our sense is that the fed should see slowing growth is what they want at this point. even efficient pushes the economy into a mild recession and that is better than letting inflation loose. so given the situation in the u.s., the tightness in the labor market in the u.s., we are going to get more hikes over the next few months. manus: i am drawn to as her doors talking about 4% and holding. i started the show by talking about that. that passed quickly from -50 basis points. his -33 a mild recession, is that a fair value for a mild recession or how do you look at the shape of the curve if we get to 4% and the material slowdown? >> what is interesting is if you look at the near-term, actually.

there is a cut for pricing into next year and that is probably what he wants to get rid of at this point because that may be upsetting what he is trying to get with higher rates and trying to slow down the economy at this point. we see how that impacts the rest of the curve. we are expecting a flatter curve coming out of this afternoon. that would be a good outcome. >> interesting. that is a lovely way of putting it which means -- which is he needs to get rid of this pivot obsession with risk assets. equities have leaned on. credit has leaned on it. overall risk has leaned on it so let's extrapolate. he manages to convince you that rate cuts are off the table. esther george laid out the entree for that. he backs it up.

what does that do to credit? there is a debate that you see a material slowdown and higher rates, that the credit markets have perhaps been too bullish, specifically in high yields, and this is what jp morgan was saying to us the other day, which is credit is too well behaved. do you agree question what do you think they could move a little bit higher? >> the further down you go, the more sensitive it's going to be to a slow down so we have seen widening spread in the course of this year but i know you have seen a bit less of that in the u.s. compared to europe on the euro side or the serial -- sterling side. that being said if you look at the investment grade, the balance sheets of these companies, you have to pick your way through the high-yield market and see who has got the

balance sheets that can take a more people colts economic environment that we will get in the second half of the year for sure. >> you have penned -- i want to pivot to europe easily. you have three rate hikes. the reason why i'm looking down, i want to try and get the energy price. i'm going to ask the producer of this -- to put it in the gtv library so you and i can deal with it. the markets have got three rate hikes now by the end of the year and i want to challenge that. and i want to challenge it based on this, the energy price inflation narrative which is hundreds of percent rises in electricity, goal, --, gas, cost-of-living, 523% on german power. it's a debate, isn't it? they have to do something. but it is supply-side.

how folly would it be to do three rate hikes? >> the ecb and the bank of england have got a much harder job than the fed. the fed needed to cool down some of these enthusiasm in the u.s. economy. in europe, the biggest issue is energy prices. it's not what the central bank can do that will change that. the fiscal side of what european governments do vis-a-vis the energy crisis is important for where we go on the european side because, yes, the consumer and the company's are being a lot more squeezed in europe than they are in the u.s. vis-a-vis the energy situation so it's much less clear cut what central banks need to do or can do on the european side compared to the u.s., a very different situation. manus: that job at the bank of

england is made even more difficult, as part of the narrative is this. well, yes. he is technically the p.m.. somebody said -- you are a government in waiting. a prime minister in waiting. to be fair, yes, you are right. on a semi-more serious note, the fiscal agenda of the u.k., they are hamstrung. if they go for another bailout on the energy side, they just do not have that capacity because the bond market will slap them. do you recommend building shorts in u.k. rates? if so, where? >> the u.k. is in a much trickier position. they are a lot more hamstrung than even europe on this run.

the economy needs help given the energy crisis. as you say, they are a lot more hamstrung in what they can do and that is reflected really in what we are seeing for rates on the sterling side. they are going up because of inflation but also because of the lack of flexibility that the u.k. has at the moment as well to support the economy and what is happening in the energy crisis so very tricky situation on the sterling side, absolutely. manus: absolutely. it has taken a brutal thrashing this week. thank you very much. senior portfolio manager and head of global fixed income. later in the show, we are building up to the jackson hole speech with jerome powell.

you can get all the coverage on jackson hole on bloomberg tv. coming up, workplace demands are changing. younger generations entering the global workforce. right here on bloomberg. ♪

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manus: good morning from dubai.

i've manus cranny, it's daybreak europe and these are the stories etc. agenda. jackson in focus. global equities turn higher as investors look to jay powell's speech. >> it's very important that we are clear on our communication about the destination. and we have to get interest rates higher to slow down demand and bring inflation back to our target. manus: no letting off, another day of record energy prices in europe, with leaders in the u.k. and brussels set to take drastic measures. concerns ease on tech as u.s.-listed chinese firms report progress in talks between officials of the two countries.

the annual jackson hole symposium gets underway, and the markets are bracing for a much-anticipated speech by the fed chair. for a bit of cover surrounding the symposium, bloomberg's michael mckee has more. >> the fed chair speeches the main event on friday. thursday, the talk of the conference was liquidity but not the wall street kind. a massive storm hit grand teton national park, flooding roads and blowing down the tv tents and creating its own converted yield curve. jay powell's speech may not have an impact on the markets quite as dramatic as investors have already priced in a hawkish message. even if he says nothing new, they will probably take it that way. meanwhile, we have had requests to a sequel on our history lesson on how the federal reserve ended up here. how did grand teton become a

national park. it became mountains about 2.2 billion years ago. fast-forward and a small area of this part. then came john d rockefeller who was so enchanted with this part that he bought all of the land between here and the town of jackson. in 1943, he donated thousands of acres to add to the national park. this is where the deer and the antelope play. grand teton and yellowstone are also home to bison and elk. once a year, in late august, you can spot central bankers in the wild here in grand teton. michael mckee bloomberg, jackson hole, wyoming. manus: let me show you how the markets are braced for this jackson hole meeting. equities are stoic, nasdaq down

to 13,130. you'd think higher wages are good news but they will chip away at the margins. and we have a little bit of an obsession with cpi and the next 50 basis point move. that is the longer duration rate that matters. the dax down .4%. showing you the bond markets. henrietta was with me moments ago, get rid of the rate cut narrative in 2023 is what jay powell needs to achieve today. 2's and 10's are at -33, that means a mild rather than a deep recession. you are seeing a narrative in the yuan market which is a clariion call for cuts to crude for the coalition of the willing. output cuts in the oil market. and cable still plummeting at

1.1806. did you like our clariion call alliteration. so, mark, do you want to start with bonds or oil what takes your fancy? >> let's talk about something at jackson hole which you probably haven't covered so far. there is actually a very interesting discussion panel on saturday. why that matters is by friday night the markets have priced in everything jerome powell has to say. we do have a roundtable on saturday after the markets have closed but before monday's foreign exchange trading gets going. it has someone from the swiss national bank, the ecb and the bank of korea. they could all speak about their currencies, either pushing back against the hawkishness we hear over the weekend or reinforcing

their message that they have more work to do themselves. that sets up a pretty feisty morning in australia, which is notoriously illiquid first thing on monday morning. we know of the dramatic moves, the yen and pound off in full into 8 -- often fall into a deep hole on a monday morning. manus: if you look at where the dollar is, bank of america notes it is 18% overvalued on a real effective exchange rate. if the s&p, ecb and bok did want to talk about currencies, what you think their message is going to be? >> the bank of korea this week has told traders a few times that there is concern about speculation against the korean won which is trading at the lowest levels in 13 years. so that market has positioned

itself or more dollar strength and korean won weakness. the central banks are watching emerging-market click currencies -- emerging-market currencies closely. the swiss national bank is probably more sanguine. they have hiked even earlier than the ecb but they probably don't mind if the swiss bank weakens a little, particularly against the dollar. but they certainly could have something to say about the risk of intervention if the euro-swiss franc rate gets too low. that is something they will be watching closely, we have seen them do work on that currency pair in the past. and the ecb themselves, the euro is weak, but is doing not much to help the equity markets. exporters have a problem with the gas markets, so for now, the euro is not doing a great job

even though it is weak. manus: rate hikes have done nothing to give succor to some of these currencies. cable with no reaction to the upside. likewise, the ecb said to raise rates in september again, completely obliterated because it is about the risk associated with the dollar. the dollar is sold when it is risk on. you buy houses. it is the juxtaposition between risk and currencies, isn't it? >> it always is a very careful balancing line between how far you allow the currency to absorb some of the problems you have. it is a safety valve, particularly for an export driven country. but if confidence is shot in your currency, people start backing away from other assets,

maybe your equity markets and bonds as well which is maybe even more important. sometimes a central banks need to say we need to defend our other asset classes, so we need to stop volatility in our currency. manus: crossed over one another there. mark, apologies. the one other thing that neither of us have talked about 38 minutes into the show, nobody has mentioned qt. forgive my naivete, but various people have said to me that it is another pretty hefty lever that he has at his disposal. >> i think bloomberg are running a story today from the cio at

bridgewater who says qt may be important -- more important than anything that happens this weekend as the fed ratchets up qt from next month. other central banks are also reducing their balance sheets. the world has got so comfortable with central banks always providing liquidity, so it is probably not well priced in at all. it could easily become a headwind, particularly if they do 75 basis points and increase qt, that may not be priced in. so we could see some major setbacks in bond markets once that recognition filters in sometime during september. manus: the aha moment. mark cranfield will be up tomorrow night watching that roundtable between the snb, ecb

and bok. a quick apology but apparently my microphone was off for 10 seconds. juliette was broken. she has the first word news. juliette: still recovering, manus. european energy has extended the rally, adding pressure on politicians to do more. in france, the cost of power hit a new record after edf says nuclear reactors will take longer to come online. the u.k.'s prime minister is planning more help on energy bills, days after rising electricity costs are expected to be some 80%. president putin has ordered the russian military to increase armed forces by 130,000, the decree did not explain whether that would happen with a draft. so far, the kremlin has avoided a mass mobilization as it seeks

to limit domestic fallout from the war. global monkeypox cases have declined for the first time, led by a drop in infections across europe. the who says new cases fell 21% in the last week but continue to rise in the americas. six countries have not reported new infections for three weeks now, the maximum incubation period for the disease. the white house chief medical advisor anthony fauci says he expected the u.s. would have moved past covid after the first year, but the disruption has lingered longer than he anticipated. he has been speaking days after announcing he is stepping down at the age of 81. >> i thought after yet another year, we would have covid behind us but that is not the case. we just have to get more people vaccinated and boosted. but i think we are on the

threshold of getting covid to the point where it is at a level where it is low enough that we can actually not have it disrupt the social order. juliette: global news, 24 hours a day, on air, and on bloomberg quicktake. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg, manus? manus: thank you very much, juliette saly there in singapore. oil on track for a weekly gain amid tightening supply outlook. energy aspects co-founder amrita sen, what does she think of an output cut from opec+? that's next on bloomberg. ♪

manus: its debris com

--daybreak here, i'm manus cranny in dubai. i'm an hour late. oil is on track for a weekly gain amid tightening supply outlook as opec+ members say supply curves may be needed to stabilize supplies. there are talks to revive the iran nuclear deal which is likely to boost supply. amrita sen has been watching all the moves, she is the director of research at energy aspects. my oh my, how the world has changed from skating on thin nice in vienna to saudi arabia talking about the need for cuts. does this oil market seriously need cuts and a pivot? amrita: i also think the market has slightly misrepresented what the saudi's were saying.

he is talking about bringing stability to the market, and he talked about the disconnect between futures end of the physically market and we have seen that this summer how disconnected to both got. that's really what he is talking about and saying look, opec+ are ready and willing to act, and it could be in whatever form. he does mention the rumors about the return of huge amounts of supply. you were referring to iran. opec+ will be and they will remain proactive, they are not going to sit here and watch, let's say if there was to be billions of barrels of iranian oil coming back, and the market not doing anything about it. they have maintained cohesion the last two years, so why not now? manus: do you agree with his royal highness that there is a

disconnect between what is being traded in futures versus fiscal forward -- physical forward delivery on the sea, and where the demand construct is? amrita: even about a month ago, the disconnect was absolutely huge. the physicals market was screaming for oil, and then the paper market kept coming off. we were down towards $100, so i have not seen the disconnect higher than that. right now it has eased partly because the physicals market has come off due to seasonal maintenance. it is meant to be weaker. but after the seasonal weakness and the turnarounds for refiners are over, we will see the disconnect come back up i get when fiscal goes -- basic all goat -- physical goes straight up.

demand, so far remains still very strong. yes, we have baked in a recession in europe, a mild one in the u.s. but every month for numbers are coming in higher than our expectations. manus: we know his royal highness likes to keep hedge funds -- so let's talk about the prospect for additional supply. i love what you say about iran. we go to page two of six, and this is what you say, iran is betting that the u.s. and eu are not willing to walk away from the table and go to a mostly nonexistent plan b, which has so far proved correct. and that gives iran the upper hand. we talk about this endlessly, so near yet so far on iran. you think we are really there,

and if so, how quickly do we go from two a to have to -- 2.5 to 2.5 million barrels? amrita: do we think the probability of the chances of a deal are higher now, yes. we think there is more of a chance of a deal but there are still some sticking points. particularly, bringing back the iea safeguards. these are issues which the u.s. is simply not going to budge on. yes, i think the probabilities are higher but some in the markets think this is a slamdunk and that is absolutely not the case. where i think there has been more clarity is around the 120 day implementation period, which means even if iranian oil is in footing storage, it will not hit the market until january of next year. that means that december, the

market will be incredibly tight because the iranian barrels want to be helping us this year. manus: this goes back to the secretary-general's point about skating on thin nice in terms of additional capacity. the next round at christmas time, the spr in the united states runs out, the iranian barrel don't come until the beginning of next year, then you have additional sanctions on crude in russia in february. talk me through the constriction in the backwater, -- back quarter and your target on brent and wti? amrita: we think it will be about $120 in q4 precisely because of the reasons you highlighted. the embargo kicks in in december. ice, which s the exachange,

stops excepting russian oil from january. these are huge numbers you are talking about. europe is frontloading and taking as much russian crude as possible before the embargo kicks in. the amount that needs to be replaced in december is as much as 1.8 million barrels a day, where are we going to find that oil? manus: indeed, energy aspects co-founder --and you didn't give me a price? amrita: i sent $120 plus for both, which means by december it is going to be fired. -- higher. manus: you spoke so quickly i missed it. in december, can you get me a ex act date for opec? i'm rit -- amrita thank you so

much, the cofounder of energy aspects. coming up, we will talk more about energy. you kate regulator is set to announce a new price cap as households grapple with rapidly rising bills. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it's daybreak europe. i'm manus cranny in dubai. energy bills in the u.k. are set to rise further, the announcement of a price capital, in a few minutes. let's get to our reporter. it is will mathis, what do you we expect? >> we are expecting the cap to g

o somewhere between 3,500 and 3,600 pounds, it is currently 1,500 so it is only going to keep rising. this is the beginning of the long-term period of really high power and gas prices in the u.k. manus: what will this next prime minister reasonably be able to do? what will truss do, because she is in the lead? >> she is signaling she will be more. whatever she does will probably mean spending a lot of money to try and shield people from these prices. there is really nothing you can do to stop the prices because these are international markets. you can't just easily halt the rise of the price of gas. and it's not really clear how

long it's going to take. because right now, the forecast is that all of next year prices will be much higher than they are this year, even in this winter. and how long can governments just keep spending billions? manus: i will let you get the report and we will see you through programming. that is will mathis there. quick snapshot of the bond markets, can jay powell dispense with the narrative that there will be rate hikes in 2023, and will we get to 4%? the coverage of jackson hole continues right here. ♪

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