paul: welcome to "daybreak asia ." haidi: the top stories this hour, risk aversion on the radar for the asia open after bond yields jumped on bets the fed will stay hawkish to fight inflation. the yen with its biggest one-day plunge in a month. taking its year to date the to almost 25% against the u.s. dollar. saudi arabia cuts oil prices to asia and europe as covid restrictions in china cool energy demand. paul: just get you across some breaking news on the bloomberg terminal, getting korea's current account balance for the month of july, a sharp improvement on the month prior, narrowing at $1.089 billion back in july. that was $5.6 billion so a sharp

narrowing of that metric. the korean won not trading right now. of course, one of the members of the club of those currencies depreciating against the u.s. dollar has depreciated about 5% over the past month alone. this data for july -- it is a really sharp improvement. $1.08 billion. shery: we had the korean won supported and could do was some support. we are talking about the 13 year lows you mentioned against the u.s. dollar but take a look at how u.s. futures are doing because we are lacking clear direction after the s&p 500 fell in the new york session and was still above the 3900 level. we are talking about very close to oversold levels on the 13 day rsi a but it really was all about the treasury space. we saw yield curves really

soaring across the curve. 30 year yield at a 2013 high and this to do with the services data we got in the fastest acceleration in the u.s. in for months. that is the key question right now. oil prices really not doing much at the moment. $87 per barrel is the level. investors trying to figure out where we are headed, given we have the opec-plus meeting in that rally and we are looking at lockdowns across china. the markets trying to see where we go from here and how that could affect prices as well. paul: i would call that an improvement. it has got a lot narrower in fact. that's have a look at how we are shaping up for trades here in australia. futures pointing to a down day to the tune of .5%. we did enter tuesday weaker after a very positive start. we have seen the yield on the 10

year little changed. we did not see a lot of change in that either or the value of the currency. we did not see a lot of change in the yield after the reserve bank of australia's decision to increase the cash rate by another 50 basis points but we did see a sharp depreciation in the value of the aussie dollar slipping further against the greenback. seems to have found a floor for now. that is against the u.s. dollar. nikkei futures meanwhile pointing to a slightly weaker open. new zealand has been trading for an hour now just off by a few points. the yen now pushed through and continues to depreciate evermore against researching greenback. let's get more on what is going on with markets with garfield reynolds, joining us is su keenan. talk to us about some of the movement we have seen in u.s. treasuries. garfield: part of this, as you

say, is the services, extremely strong number. the way that feeds into the narrative with the fed is more likely than not to raise basis points next month. we have very strong debt. that is the call that is expected if you look at rates markets. we are waiting to see what cpi brings in the coming days just in case -- that seems unlikely. more importantly for treasuries, it adds to the narrative that it is going to go higher and stay higher than the market has been expecting. we saw some wages in euro-dollar future overnight on a 4% said rate by the end of this year. that is hedging against the extreme version. we also have a lot of corporate

issuance. deals coming to market. that helps to send treasuries up in the immediate response because of the hitching flows that occur. it also speaks to the way that companies that need to fund or refinance are looking at what is going on and saying we need to get cracking now because yields are only going to go higher. though all of that speaks to higher yields and for that sustaining for some time. shery: a lot to do with what is happening on the inflation front and of course, oil is very important in this equation. what are we seeing in prices? su: we are seeing any rally that began crumble. do we look to asia prices with green earlier? we have seen the erosion in price support. west texas intermediate just below. brent crude coming down in the

most recent sessions paid we have chinese authorities with more restrictions. saudi arabia is cutting its oil prices to asia. you look at the five-day chart for west texas intermediate and even though opec-plus made a decision to cut output in their most recent meeting which put oil up, it is steadily -- it has steadily come down. we drop into the bloomberg and you can also see why opec-plus is making this move to cut output. they have very little spare capacity. they are almost back to 2019 in terms of spare capacity. there is not a lot of focus on supplying now. it is more on demand. traders skeptical of rallies and then you have the fact that in california now, we have our own energy crisis. we have a huge heatwave. california residents are being

warned to prepare for rolling blackouts. almost a microcosm of what we are seeing possibly in europe. paul: definitely. that problem is not unique to the u.s. and europe as you say in the grip of an energy crisis as well. governments moving to protect households against rising prices but what are the implications for energy traders? su: energy traders are facing a real massive margin calls. look at how you have seen the surge in every aspect of energy commodities, whether it be natural gas, whether it be coal, whether it be electricity. that peak is the year ahead projections for german power prices paid what it has done is all the exchange requirements to secure trade is sucking up capital so governments are under pressure to provide the market with liquidity. marginal call to the tune of 1.5

trillion are now being imposed on traders and a lot of companies need capital quickly to be able to deal with this. norway's afa has explained the problem rather graphically, saying derivatives are clearly an issue. we drop into the bloomberg one more time and you will see that russia's stranglehold on the gas shipments to europe, mainly, they are servicing that nord stream pipeline right now. there is enormous concern that they find other issues that are extending the outage and this may result in a complete cut off. the focus on the european union to come up with ideas to keep its energy crisis from turning into an economic meltdown could not be more urgent. energy ministers are preparing for an emergency meeting in brussels on friday. germany wants power price caps also seeking limits. shery: not a great set up for the asian open. garfield: not really.

we have got the twin currency returns for the yen and the yuan thaad to that poor outlook for sentiment. the yen crashed lower again to mid 143 per dollar. a lot of thought that there will at the very least be some jawboning. there could be some intervention brewing to try and slow down -- as it gets closer to going through the 1998 flows at 146 or so. then, there is the yuan which got pretty close to 7, 6 .97 in the offshore market. seven per dollar for the yuan, seen as being a line that the pboc would be reluctant to have broken and you would want to

take some time to go through there. that would set off further turmoil. there is that backdrop as well as just the general concern. higher yields that go on hurting equity markets as it raises the risk free rate. we have australian tenure yields following on from what happened overnight and speaking of yields , fairly soon, we have the japanese open. the japanese yields were only a basis point or so below the .25% cap the boj has imposed so let's see what goes on there and whether the boj is forced to come as it was last time the end was really dropping, step into by large amounts of japanese government bonds to stop those yields preaching its ceiling. shery: they will have to tweak their yield curve control

eventually. garfield reynolds with the latest on the currencies. su keenan on the energy space. you can follow more on this story and all of the trading on the markets live blog on the bloomberg at mliv . you can get a market rounds down in one click. you can find out what is affecting your investments right now. we are watching the currency space. the chinese yuan getting close to that level at a time when we are seeing the pboc really trying to stabilize. let's bring in our china open anchor, david in glace. the pboc really setting the yuan fixing stronger than expected for what the last 10 sessions were or so. what can you tell us about when we could get to this seven level? david: we could get to that today, absolutely. i say that from a purely mechanical perspective because the midpoint yesterday was 6.9 so we are within that 2% range

that allows the exchange rate to move beyond that. do we get to seven today? probably not because that opens up things like herd mentality. is that a big deal? maybe it is not as big of a deal as we talk about, for example. it is a nice come around number. maybe not quite. it is certainly a headline number. when the trade numbers come out today, we are still looking at a $90 billion surplus for china. that is the only major pillar anchoring the currencies. the trade figure might get us closer to seven. certainly not fundamentals in the economy so lots to watch today, guys. paul: how much of this is still a factor of dollar strength? david: it's more dollar strength

-- you look at measures of the dollar, separate measures of the yuan. you look at the measure rightly between the exchange rate. it is still mostly dollar strength and you guys were talking about the yen, for example. the yuan has fallen less against the basket than it has against the u.s. dollar but more so recently, we have seen a lot more weakness coming through with the spot price with the weakening economy. you look at yen-you want, for example. -- yen-yuan, for example. so when you look at the broader fx space, what's fascinating about our fascination with that is other currencies in the region, to answer your question, is the ringgit is at lows, the won is at 2009 lows, the taiwan dollar is having its worst year since the asian financial crisis . do conditions merit sort of the

bigger conditions in the pboc? is this more about you want weakness -- yuan weakness? not just yet. kicked one and two. stronger fixes, a cut in reserve ratio requirements for forex. watch the cnh live board. that leads into higher rates here in hong kong. it makes it harder to short the currency. back to you. paul: david in glace, thanks for joining us pick let's get over to vonnie quinn for the first word headlines. vonnie: california is warning residents to prepare for rolling blackouts, issuing a level two emergency warning for a second day. temperatures about 40 degrees celsius across much of the state and schools and businesses reopening after labor day. the emergency declaration allows officials to order some large power consumers to shut down. saudi arabia has cut oil prices for asia and europe as covid

lockdowns and sagging economies cool energy demand. saudi aramco -- next month's shipments by almost $40 a barrel. it will be in line with expectations and follows a 25% drop in brent crude futures in the past few months. pakistan is facing more flooding after its largest lake breached a retaining wall. water from the lake inundated hundreds of villages downstream and could force thousands of people from their homes. the planning minister said damage will be far greater than the 10 billion dollars initially forecast. what than 1300 people have been killed. xi jinping is calling for stronger -- developing key technologies. he says the so-called whole nation's system would improve china's strategy in areas critical to national security. his comments reported by state media, as competition with the u.s. rises and industries

including semi-connectors. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. shary. shery: week -- shery. shery: we count down to china trade data. would a weakening currency add to growing investor concern? covid lockdowns in china weighing on the oil markets as opec-plus agrees to cut back on supply. more on that with our guests. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: take a quick look at what is happening on energy market at the moment. we have the oil price moving a little bit lower then we have become accustomed to.

86-70 four for west texas. gasoline prices showing a good strength but natural gas prices using as well. we have seen moves both within the european union and in the u.k. to make trade cap is cap down prices for households. interesting implications for energy traders as well. let's talk about how those oil prices are going to attract from here without next guest joining us from the sidelines of the jeffries asia forum. we have the founder and chairman net energy consultancy sge. thank you for joining sp it i want to start with the oil price. we are seeing weakening here. concerns about chinese demands and then on the other hand this week, we had opec-plus announcing there's going to -- they will be cutting production by 100,000 barrels so what is the stronger catalyst in terms of the future for oil prices? >> it adds 100,000 barrels per

day. this really is not very dramatic but what it tells you is opec-plus is willing to take action if the prices begin to go down. much below $90 per barrel. we can expect some production cutbacks. the prices opec seems to want, $90 plus. but this current weakness in the price -- china. chinese demand, over and million barrels per day lower than it should be and it could be half a million barrels per day lower so the problem is that -- the chinese policy, zero covid policy, is not -- on the other hand, the possibility of adding production

of oil from iran is trading so that is also in the background. it is a substantial difference in the market price if the production comes in there. paul: as far as china, how does the demand picture look more broadly to you? do global economies need more supply of cheaper oil at the moment? fereidun: the global picture has done quite well on the oil side. the dax side, not so well. the rest of the world is pretty ok. europe is over the long term supply no matter what. if there is a removal of the lockdowns in china, chinese demand -- the global prices can

jump so at the moment, it is all china, china. shery: what is about -- what about what is happening in europe? energy trading being trained by margin calls of $1.5 trillion. where is the market headed in the trading when it comes to investors trying to make something out of what is happening with the crisis over there? fereidun: the margin call is a very serious issue but the big question in europe is -- the price of oil is -- the european success in stopping extra oil coming in is a factor in the higher price of oil. if they stop the russian oil getting out to the rest of the world, the price it would be in the same range they are now. the measurement is what happened

on december 5. the rest of the world paid the price for the european -- it does not impact europe alone. it impacts everybody else. shery: what will the window look like in europe? fereidun: it is supposed to be regular but it could be anybody's guess. it could be chaos. i think the russians are counting on cutting their supply . they changed their mind about the level of sanctions. i think that is a mistaken assumption because as long as president putin is there, i don't think that they will change -- the situation can get out of hand. europeans don't have -- very well. they don't know what is going to happen. they pretend like they do but they don't. shery: fereidun fesharaki, good

to have you with us, founder and chairman at fge with his outlook on the energy space to plenty more to calm on -- energy space. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. evergrande group is said to be exiting its investments in the changing bank -- in the bank. sources say a state owned entity is the only bettor ahead of the deadline. evergrande will use the proceeds to repay debts owed to the bank. abu dhabi investment is said to be nearing a deal to buy fortress investment. it could value the asset manager at more than $2 billion.

he is playing a key role in brokering the deal. tencent is said to more than double its stake, buying 49.9% of the holding company. the move gives the brothers time to get the company back on track and retain control. governor stitt ubisoft will remain unchecked -- the governor said ubisoft will remain unchanged. -- china struggles with covid and a weakening currency. that conversation in a moment. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪ when people come, they say they've tried lots of diets, nothing's worked or they've lost the same 10, 20, 50 pounds over and over again. they need a real solution. i've always fought with 5-10 pounds all the time. eating all these different things and nothing's ever working. i've done the diets, all the diets.

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>> this is "daybreak asia."

i'm vonnie quinn with the first word headlines. -- morning auto firms to be careful. regulators for washington and beijing are in a dispute over autos that could see 200 companies kicked off american stock exchanges. watchdogs will travel to hong kong in the coming weeks. -- has been confirmed as the new chancellor of the exchequer. he is part of a new look cabinet which does not include any white men in the top four leadership roles. he is the new deputy prime minister and help secretary. they will have to navigate one of the toughest economic periods with sky high inflation and surging energy costs. japanese prosecutors arrested three executives as they investigate alleged bribery in the olympics sponsorship process. it is alleged that he paid the

other bribes in 2019 and 2021. the company said it will fully cooperate with authorities. bank of america says it is planning updated return to office policies that formalize some of the new flexibility the bank has given workers during the pandemic. brian moynihan said the plans will be based on feedback from staff surveys. it will add formality to the flexibility and be specific to each business unit. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. paul: thank you very much. let's look at what is going on on the fx markets for the moment. double strength, continuing to be a major theme when it comes to the job easy and. we have seen further depreciation today. 143.28. the uber question of the day

does deal with this issue. when might we see some intervention to address that rapidly depreciating yuan? that psychological level could be breached. we have seen 10 consecutive days of stronger-than-expected innings from the pboc. shery: we have some -- seen some support for the yuan from export numbers so far. there is pressure because of the yuan not to mention encouraging monetary policies of the two countries but the record tray -- trade surplus has helped keep that support level for the chinese yuan. take a look at what we are expecting in terms of trade members because we are expecting export numbers to slow a little bit. we have seen pmi numbers from trading peers of china, weakening slightly in the previous month so we are expecting to see a little bit of

easing in those numbers but when it comes to numbers year on year, we are talking about double digit growth and we are watching inflation concerns as well in china, not only all the rest of the world offering from inflation hit a little bit of inflation in china as well. we are expecting pi year on year to grow 2.8%. a little bit of easing on that sector as well given vegetable inflation has eased in china. port prices have gone up a little bit but this does not compare to what is happening in the rest of the world, right? joining us now, the head of aipac economic analysis. it is great to have you with us. what are we expecting in terms of inflation numbers? as i was saying, it does not compare to the rest of the world when you have double-digit inflation, the fastest in decades across the world, not being felt across china as of yet. a little bit more leeway for the pboc. >> indeed. china's inflation -- the rest of

the world. out of the fruit and vegetables last month, chinese inflation has been rather muted as you look at manufacturing goods. it was around 1%. this has allowed the pboc to ease its monetary policy. we think that this moment, there's is not a lot of reason for china to use cheap currency to boost its exports further as we expect. although august exports growth could slow to 14% from last month, more than the 14.7%. china's trade surplus this month. we will remain sizable. given the rest of the world is slowing down, cheap currency

will not serve china well. at the same time, china may import inflation from the rest of the world. shery: tell us a little bit about currency concerns paid i was talking about the weakness and the pressure. at the same time, we have the record trade surplus giving a boost to the renminbi. how did that play out when you have conflicting powers at play here? liu: at this moment, a weak currency is not in china's interest. from the macro perspective, if the renminbi continues to weaken in the rest of the year, this will bring in larger depreciation expectations as a result which could defeat china's macro policy stimulus impacts because at this moment, if currency started to wobble,

property market -- a lot of macro policy stimulus may not work well. people in the market may speculate on the currency gains rather than use the money and put money in the real economy. as a result of the macroeconomic stimulus, maybe effective. this is the reason we think the pboc need to be very careful. it needs to draw a line in the sand to defend the renminbi from depreciated -- depreciating beyond that. paul: i'm just wondering how likely it is that you think things might change after president xi jinping is confirmed for that record third term. would that give some impetus to

the policy agenda? perhaps the relaxation of covid policies? is that the big political moment we might be waiting for? liu: indeed. there's a lot of positive expectations for the party congress. the opening date of the congress has become earlier, starting from october 16. ahead of market expectation early in november. whilst this party congress is over, perhaps china will contemplate how to ease out this very restricted covid zero policy. in most parts of the country, it has been fairly free. once one region was affected, then we still see draconian

policies such as lockdowns and things like that. indeed, such activities will definitely dampen china's economic recovery in q3. the lockdown in chengdu, fairly large. 25 million people. the recovery is expected this year. paul: i want to get your thoughts on the property sector as well as. do you feel like all the bad news is out of the way yet or are there a few more cockroaches lurking behind the fridge? liu: at least the government has become quite alert on this property market slump. for now, we see more supportive policies, for example, certain developers can issue bonds with

government guarantees so the bond yield was quite low relative to market levels. we think perhaps we need to watch whether this current policy can be steered towards government policy rather than individual re-structural. china's property market slump may not be a prolonged one which may be a good news for china's property sector overall and also, that will help stabilize market expectation, especially it could be good for chinese consumers who are waiting to get into the property market. paul: liu li-gang, head of

economic analysis at diti private -- citi private bank. we are on yen watch. we will take a look at what is in store for japan's embattled currency, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we are counting down to the start of trade in tokyo and seoul. the lending -- leading index falling for a third straight month and that has to do with the business cycle in japan so watch out for that number. prosecutors arrested three executives in connection with olympic bribery allegations hit the publisher saying it is fully cooperating in the investigation. we are also watching fujitsu. it shows the plans to list on the tokyo stock exchange on october 12. we are watching korea. we have seen the massive floods and the cleaning up after the typhoon passed through. hoping some -- after the storm. the commission saying that it will announce sidelines and cook the security tokens in the fourth quarter and the e.u. saying south korea has removed long-standing barriers that

hampered e.u. vonnie: pork -- e.u. pork sales. paul. paul: thanks. we are keeping a close watch on the yen today after current these biggest one-day plunged against the dollar in a month. it has -- so the yen pushing through 143 while we were on air today. how much more pain is there in store for the japanese yen? >> in a nutshell, potentially a lot more. the currency is getting lower by the day. at this stage, with the bank of japan cleaning to alter a dovish monetary policy and the fed hiking aggressively, it is hitting levels last seen in the early 1990's. japan's former vice finance

ministers said in may that the yen could reach 150 this year. it may have seemed far-fetched back then that here we are in september and the yen is at 143. it is not that shocking a notion at all. you have forecasters from new york saying do not rule out the yen weakness. 150 may be another line of defense. it doesn't mean the currency will stay at the weaker levels we are seeing forever but until something breaks, we cannot rule out yen weakness. shery: will japanese officials have to actually intervene in the markets? ruth: that is a great question and definitely on traders minds at the moment. the velocity in the drop of the yen is critical to watch here. down 20% against the dollar. it is not and emerging-market currency. it is the third most traded currency in the world. policy makers have not changed

their language to indicate such a move could happen anytime soon but look out. do look out. we will not rule out any options . we are ready to take decisive action to counter speculative moves so all eyes on the end. shery: ruth carson watching the japanese currency. softbank said to be nearing a 2 billion-dollar deal to sell fortress investment group. let's get the details from our technology reporter. what is behind this move by softbank and what kind of impact can we expect? >> this potential sale of fortress has been in the works in the past several months as our colleagues have reported and also, masayoshi son confirmed for the first time during softbank's earning call last month that -- and this whole

sale is a part of the rotor efforts to clean up its balance sheet because it reported billions of dollars of record losses at its flagship vision fund unit so all of this has to do with turning around its earnings. but of course, what really matters is how the stock market performs going forward. we will have to see if these efforts resolve, yields resolved. paul: in terms of turning things around, what might be next? min jeong: it is very likely that we will see more developments relating to potential sale of softbank's other assets and holdings. one thing to remember is that softbank has already been divesting actually quite a bit

of its investments over the past year. it also told last month that it has exited investments in uber. analysts have positively viewed its efforts. i also mentioned softbank's fortunes are very closely tied to how the stock market performs , especially those technology stocks so we will really have to see how the global stage -- stock market performs and we probably will not see any meaningful turnaround unless markets recover so we will see. paul: bloomberg technology reporter, min jeong lee, that. pantera capital is confident bitcoin is on the cusp of entering a bull market after bear market cycles. dan moynihan is coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: let's take a look at what is going on in the crypto space paid we have bitcoin showing quite a bit of weakness. well below their $20,000 support level. ether losing ground to the tune of almost 1%.

pantera capital ceo says bitcoin has hit its lows in june and could easily decouple from markets. on the way to its next all-time high. >> it could easily decouple from the risk-on and risk-off mentality. in a years time, even if the main markets are struggling, bonds, real estate, equities, crypto marching to its own drummer and hitting all-time highs. >> we have seen a big leverage in terms of the open interest in their perpetual swap contracts compared to the amount of bitcoin out there. it looks like the market is preparing for a lift. what do you see in terms of the price? >> i agree. we have been doing it for 10 years. three big bear market cycles paid on average, they lasted 220 days. so i think we hit the lows in june that we will see and we are onto the next market.

it might be rocky and it might take a while to get going but i think that we are onto the next leg of our outing. >> where will that bring us to? what is your target for year-end? five years out? >> bitcoin is an industry -- standard forecast to keep going at the same growth rate for a while so it is important to remember bitcoin is no longer everything. for, bitcoin was for essentially everything. now, there are important projects and we have seen bitcoin rally a bit but the real story is the project other than bitcoin. >> let's talk about ethereum. we are getting closer and closer. it dan: seems like dan: there's

a lot of height, a lot of optimism. what is your read on the impact it will have? -- dan: once we get next weekend it goes through, god willing, it does work. we have been much more excited in the last month or two. we have seen bitcoin's share the market, drifting down 38%. ethereum is a bit more than half the total market cap of bitcoin. >> i would love to get your take on stablecoins in light of recent big, bold moves. they are going to automatically switch. into their own stablecoin. are we setting up for big competition on the exchanges in terms of their stable products? dan: definitely, even with governments. central banks need to be into this because with antiquated

systems like fed wire, stablecoins get money around the world. in the future, finance will use a stablecoin or similar products. the federal government is going to get into this. shery: dan moorehead speaking with matt miller. here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. juul has reached an agreement to pay $439 million to 33 states to resolve an investigation into its sales practices. they are accused of marketing nicotine products to children. under the deal, juul must restrain from all paid product placement and advertising on public transport. -- strategic options.

the most expensive hotels. it could fetch $600 million in the transaction. it could be the largest luxury hotel sale in new york city since the pandemic. closing in on the levels of jeff bezos and elon musk. the bloomberg billionaires index shows -- increasing by $65 billion to more than 141 billion dollars, making him the third richest percent on the planet. it is attracting fresh scrutiny to the valuations and leverage. paul: here's some of the stocks we are going to be watching when trade opens in australia, japan, and korea at the top of the hour. energy related shares might move with oil dropping on an additional covid lockdowns in china and coming up in the next hour, we are going to be talking to j.p. morgan's choice chang.

she will be joining us exclusively from the forum. we have that interview just a few minutes away now. challenging macro environment for crypto over the coming months. we will figure out why a little later on. up next, market opens in sydney, tokyo, and seoul. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: this is "bloomberg daybreak: asia." counting down to asia's major market open as we watch the currency space across asia. the japanese yen at the first 24 year low against the dollar. the korean won, 13 year low. the chinese yuan close to the seven level. surprising even though we have more than 30 cities across china fully or partially under lockdown. paul: in terms of currencies, the aussie dollar weakened yesterday, holding the floor at the moment. after that, the bank of us barely -- australia tightened. none of it really seems to matter in the face of a very strong greenback and ongoing fed tightening. shery: that really is playing into the markets. as we await the japanese market open, policy diverges narrative continues to hammer the japanese yen. 143 is your level against the

u.s. dollar. first 24 year low. we see pressure even on japanese stock market. usually you would think you have a weaker japanese yen, exporters being supported. that is no longer the case. we are looking at the 10 year yield. very close to the .25% level, the upper limit of tolerance for the boj. we had our guest earlier today coming out and saying the yield curve control would have to be adjusted, or officials would have to intervene in the market with such a week japanese yen. oil prices not doing much. we have that dynamic of the oil price being felt. the rally after the open plus meeting. but given the lockdowns across china, the demand picture not looking great. look at korea. watching some news over there. a hold of the steel mills. watch out for those stocks.

kospi under pressure, .6%. the korean won, weakening. going past the 1300 level to the u.s. dollar, i thought that was pretty weak. we are even further out than that, nearing the $1400 level. talking about the weakest level in 13 years. continuing to watch what the korean won is doing, at a time when the bok is tightening, but the divergence and the pressure on capital flows continues. paul: let's see how we are tracking on the asx. hard to get a bead on things this early on due to the open. things will be flat right now. yesterday we saw a decent front before selling later into the day. futures indicated downside for the asx today. just off by about six points. we will be keeping a close eye on energy stocks.

the oil price retreating after we had some weaker than expected data out of china. some real concerns about the demand outlook. concerns of oil. australian dollar, 6726 against the greenback. continuing to lose ground. it is not about what is going on in australia and more about the narrative out of the u.s. rba tightening as expected by 50 basis points. later on, we will have second-quarter gdp numbers for australia. about 90 minutes time. we are expecting a modest expansion. .10% on the quarter. a lot of movement in the ten year. let's get to vonnie quin for the first word headlines. vonnie: -- confirmed as the uk's new chancellor as part of a cabinet that doesn't include any white men in the top four leadership roles.

the new deputy prime minister and health secretary. the new government will have to navigate one of the uk's toughest economic periods with sky high inflation and surging energy costs. california is telling residents to prepare for rolling blackouts, issuing a level two emergency warning for a second day. electricity demand soaring with temperatures above 40 degrees celsius across much of the state as a schools and businesses reopen after labor day. the emergency declaration allows large power consumers to shut down. the chinese president calling for stronger efforts to cool nationwide resources in developing xi technology. he said the so-called coronation system would include -- improve china's strategy in areas critical to its industrial, economic, and national security. the comments come as competition with the u.s. rises and industries, including semiconductors. -- in industries, including semiconductors.

pakistan facing more flooding after its largest lakes reached a written -- largest lake reached a retaining wall. it inundated hundreds of villages downstream after it purged its banks and can force thousands from their homes. pakistan is -- damage from the floods will be greater than the $10 billion estimated. more than 1300 people have been killed so far. japanese prosecutors arrested three executives as they investigate alleged bribery in the olympic sponsorship process. a fresh warrant was issued for the tokyo 2020 board member. it is alleged he was paid around 480 $9,000 between 2019 and 2021. the company says it will fully cooperate with authorities. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quin, this is bloomberg.

shery: we are watching the markets very closely, as mentioned earlier. the japanese yen around a 24 year low against the u.s. dollar. it comes with u.s. dollar strength, but also leading to currency is fueling the downside pressure. the korean won at that 13 year low. the malaysian ringgit, as well. hitting the lowest ever. the chinese yuan also very close to the seven level. let's bring in david ingles. will we be touching the seven level for the chinese yuan? >> it is definitely possible, from a mechanical perspective. six was at 6.90 yesterday. we have been -- the pboc accepted a stronger end of expectations along the weakening

exchange rate. before we get to that, this is the other bit we are talking about. the 10 year yields in japan. we are at levels now that in about an hour's time, we might get indication they will need to step in. look at the 10 year yield, whether it is on the run, cheapest to deliver, we are at that level that should be leading to them buying an unlimited amount of bonds. we are watching it closely. dollar-yen, we talked about that. on the back of 3.5% yield on the 30 year yield. 143. obviously it goes back to earlier until he gets to seven on the yuan. yen-yuan cross is very close to the lowest since 1992. it is a strong dollar story. increasingly becoming a weak yuan story. paul: in terms of the yuan, how

likely are we to see more what tools are left in the box? >> i think we can go from every day guidance, which is a fixed, counter typical factor. we haven't quite gotten through the rest of the closet just yet. in a lot of ways, it speaks to the conditions we are looking at and currency markets right now -- in currency markets right now. it is more dollar strength than weakness in the currency. that means we are going through some of these tools that on a normal basis, we don't see often. two days ago, we had the reduction in the amount of reserves the bank can keep, essentially opening up more, allowing it to flow into the system and indirectly supporting the currency. we will be getting trade numbers

coming up. an indication of fundamental supports. booming exports has been -- i would even say the only remaining driver, apart from leading authorities and the pboc actually supporting the chinese currency. it is certainly not rate differentials. certainly not the fundamental story. it is leading to those things, a higher exchange rate. some tools the pboc and china have at their disposal to deal with fluctuations in the currency. one and two -- we have not really gotten to things like -- it doesn't would like we will get there in the moment, conditions that would necessitate a judgment in capital controls, selling

reserves, for example. it is the third bit i would watch next. the pickup in high rates. cnh, which in effect, makes it more difficult and costly to short the currency. shery: we want to dive into what is happening with china's trade numbers. exports expected to show a sharp deceleration in august talking about the chinese trade numbers. our global economics and policy editor is here with more. how severe can we expect the slowdown to be? kathleen: it will be pretty steep. a double whammy for china. countries around the world are facing all kinds of pressure on their economy, from their own central banks, for example. this is around the world, this chance that they need to slow demand down. that is what they are trying to do and what we are seeing. in china, covid zero.

locking down again. it is expected to show up severely in the august numbers. august exports are supposed to be up, 13% year-over-year. doesn't sound bad, but they were up 18% in july. they are already slowing down. you can see that in the imports. staying flat around 2%. looking at some of the red flags for china's exports. a key city -- not one of the biggest ones, but it is a toy and goods distributor, a weeklong shutdown. that is expected to show up here. and manufacturing pmi's in the u.s., japan, and the eu, they take a lot of exports from china. that will be negative. export growth, slowing to 6.6 percent year-over-year. about 9% over year. that is another red flag. they are another major asian exporter. these things are adding up at a

time when there is not much the government can do about this. we talked about the currency, david gave us a position of where it is going, but not much can be done. for now, this is what is happening. we will see how bad it is. paul: we have australia gdp second-quarter numbers out. these are the numbers we would have started to see occur during the start of the rba's tightening cycle. delivering their fourth 50 basis point hike. what are we inspecting to see? kathleen: so far, so good. that is the story so far. there is not a sign of slow yet. maybe in the housing market. but for growth in the second quarter, we are getting well into the third quarter by now. it is supposed to be 3.5 percent year-over-year for the second quarter in a row. the retail sales have been strong. particularly in services.

particularly overseas travel is another thing adding to spending. any developed economy, modern economy, the consumer is really the main driver of the economy. the negative side is in construction, homebuilding. bad weather has probably slowed construction, there is science it has. within the report, that is what people will look for. but clearly the rba, like every other bank in the world is fighting inflation, they want to see a slowdown in the economy. no sign of that happening in the second quarter of the year. getting into the summer and beyond, that is where our bloomberg economics team sees some signs the economy will start showing some impacts of the rate hikes. we will see a show up in the gdp numbers. for now, it seems to be a green light for the rba if they want to continue the rate hikes. shery: kathleen hays with the latest. we are watching some of the energy related stocks in australia, given we had the bump in oil prices on monday with

russia announcing with opec-plus they are -- 100 barrels a day, but that did not last. oil prices under pressure with brent headed toward $92 a barrel. and we are following the energy companies across the region. take a look at softbank. we weren't watching any news related to the sale to buy investments from softbank. that could value the u.s. asset manager at more than $2 billion, according to people speaking with bloomberg. the abu dhabi sovereign fund can announce that agreement in the coming weeks. we see softbank under a little bit of pressure. but it is downsized across japanese markets. across the broader space right now. paul: still to come. we explore the challenging macroenvironment of cryptocurrencies with kevin lou, who is seeing more money coming

into blockchain startups. up next, joyce chang joins us from the apex cfo and treasurer's forum. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: jp morgan holding the annual asia-pacific cfo and treasurer's forum, bringing together leading corporates in the region. let's crossover to haslinda amin with our next guest. >> this forum is being organized against a very challenging backdrop. aggressive fed, keen dollar, and risk off -- bond market is already there. stocks might be getting closer to the bear market. let's bring in joyce chang. she joins us.

good to have you with us. in your opinion, what matters most to asset classes globally? is it dollar? >> thank you so much, great to be back in person. today it is all about the currencies. the big question is still inflation and how central banks have to react. we see a widening differential, not just the fed moving 75 basis points, we have the ecb, bank of england moving in kind, the same way. this is a widening premium that we have versus the yen, given the bank of japan is not going to do anything. it is moving the currency. i think the strong dollar is here to stay over the near term. but all eyes are on the inflation number, how policymakers will react. also on gas prices in europe and what type of recession can be in store. >> let's speak about differentials. yen already now at 143.

150 isn't so far away. do you see the yen headed that way? >> 140 has been our target. it can go to 145. it is even a wider differential right now. now that you see all of the central banks in developed markets, except for bank of japan, having to aggressively frontload, moving to a 75 basis point call. we are not necessarily done with the weakness we have seen in the yen. i think it will endure. when do you begin to see the bank of japan talk about surrendering yield curve control? i think that is 2023. it could be with us for the next couple of months. >> how do you really assess whether the weakness of those currencies were net negative or net positive for those economies? we talk about japan, but we talked about how we had a weaker japanese, same thing for china

and their exports. at what point does it become a problem? >> i think the strong dollar is here to stay. all eyes are still on the fed. we are also looking at the gross story. the story in japan is really one about the exit from deflation, pushing change. i wouldn't say so much on where the currency is at, the question will come up -- maybe not tomorrow -- but in the coming months, what they will do on the curve control and how it looks. the growth numbers out of japan have done a pretty reasonable in this environment. and we are seeing a shift. less about a global recession than very divergent performance between different regions. the recession in europe, subpar growth in asia. i think exit from inflation will be what we are talking about

moving towards the end of the year and into 2023. paul: how about the growth story in china? the fed just going to remain mired in the mud with the covid zero policy? >> we have taken down the china growth forecast this year to just 3%. next year, 4.6%. that is well below the 5.5% target. it is not just covid zero. the issue is we are focused on the property sector over the medium term. that is a big portion of gdp, bank lending, and household, as well. it is a big issue that will pursue us through 2023 into 2024, as far as what we do with the empty apartments, the mortgage extensions, fall in housing prices. and they have to really find balance between home price stability, given the percentage it is of household wealth, and

addressing some of these issues they have with respect to the property center outlook. and we have fall rates rising, we have rise to about 13%, $45 million of defaults for chinese properties. >> a clear sign of vulnerability, especially looking at the chinese currency. yuan approaching seven. even talking about its weakness, it is stable. how are you looking at the yuan? >> the yuan has been very stable against the basket currencies. when we look at what has been happening with euro-dollar, dollar-yen. we have it -- next year, i think that will happen. but we have also seen the export numbers, they have slowed a little bit. i think the currency will stay in this range we see. and we see these moves have not been the sharpest that we have seen in the other developed market currencies, quite frankly

. we are also looking at the euro-dollar. 95, below parity. backing the envelope, everyone percent change in european growth is about 3% on euro-dollar. so there's a lot of questions about what a slowdown in europe looks like. i think we measure china against that. i think the weakness will continue. but i still think it is relative to some of the other major currencies we are looking at. >> we started the conversation with you saying the dollar is key. how much is it impacting, in terms of asset allocation? 60/40, down 15% yesterday, how should we look at asset allocations? >> 60/40, take a longer-term yield, now that we see the bigger move in fixed income yields. last year we were at zero yield, so we said 3%. now that you have u.s. ag at 4%,

are we looking at for percent fixed income? maybe 5%, 6% in the equity market. one of the silver linings of such a dramatic stoploss is going forward, since we are exiting zero yield and deflation, it could be something more like a 5% return rather than a 3% return. it doesn't help much this year. this year, whether you are in the bond market or equity market, one of the worst years on record. one you will think about when it comes to tax crisis. but i think the themes we are going to have going forward will be frontloading all of the central bank's moves. at what point can they pause and see where inflation settles? i think it is very premature to talk about leaving. >> thank you so much for that, joyce chang. 60/40 is -- paul? paul: thank you very much.

haslinda with joyce chang. we will bring you more insight at the jp morgan forum through this morning. and we will speak with jp morgan's -- strategy, as well as uc berkeley's -- plenty more to watch out from. this is bloomberg. ♪

> i will deal hands-on with the energy crisis caused by putin's war. i will take action this week to deal with energy bills and secure our future energy supplies. shery: that is the uk prime minister, critic of the boe's approach to inflation and cost to reveal the bank's mandate. we will hear from governor andrew bailey as he testifies at the select committee. a promise to really tackle the

energy crisis by the new prime minister. shares higher, we saw it rebound in the session, which led to volatility in the markets. futures at the moment looking a little bit mixed. you can see ftse 100 futures under pressure. this after they climbed about 1%. we had bloomberg reporting the plan to fix the annual electricity and gas bills for a typical u.k. house bill at or below current levels. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ pst. girl. you can do better. at least with your big-name wireless carrier. with xfinity mobile you can get unlimited for $30 per month on the nation's most reliable 5g network. they can even save you hundreds a year on your wireless bill over t-mobile, at&t, and verizon. wow. i can do better!

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shery: china oil markets bracing

for rocky weeks ahead. as a government list covered restrictions. one of 60 million people now facing travel restrictions and china. we are seeing pressure on energy prices. >> major event for a financial forum in shanghai. all been canceled or delayed. the longer china persists in its zero covid strategies of the last oil, the largest consumer of the oil in the world needs. that's having a big impact on price. we are seeing oil futures trade are on the screens of the big moves in london and new york, closing under 87. down about 3%. we also saw brent trading below $93. opec's falling capacity, also a

big part of the story. just last week, -- earlier this week, oil -- opec plus decided to cut output slightly. the push for oil has diminished, as you can see. you got these covid strategies that limited demand. and now cutting prices to its asia come -- customers. you've got opec cutting output just a bit. all this changing the focus from supply to what is demand. that we've got the booming energy crisis in the u.s., out the west coast. california having record heat for the second day and road -- second day in a row. hundred 15 in san clemente though. california residents being warned to prepare for rolling blackouts.

that is a big crisis because of the extreme heat. paul: also the energy crisis in europe, what is the latest there? >> they can't move soon enough. a lot of nations now marshaling different resources. you see the surge in every major commodity, natural gas, coal, energy prices. next year's energy prices in germany surging. the european union coming up with ideas to keep it from turning into a meltdown. he got ministers preparing for an emergency meeting friday. there were no limit prices on all natural gas imports. then energy create -- energy trading struck by margin calls, 1.5 trillion. norway talking about how you

have a derivative prices. there is not enough liquidity in all the exchange requirements is sucking up capital. now governments trying to come up with my to provide to these firms to keep the trading going on. let's look at the nordstrom pipelines, that russia has been holding due to maintenance, now they found problems with the maintenance. what they have done is slowly cut off the flow of oil -- i should say natural gas, to europe. putting a lot of pressure on those countries because the concern is the narrowing of the spigot is going to be a. cut off. -- 80 stop cut off. paul: let's get to vonnie quinn for a check of the first word headlines.

>> california telling residents to prepare for rolling blackouts. electricity demand is soaring, with temperatures above 40 degrees celsius across much of the state. the emergency declaration allows officials to order some large power consumers to be shut down. pakistan facing more flooding after its largest lake reached a rush -- a retaining wall. it could force thousands more people from its homes. the minister says damage from the flood will be greater then initially forecast. saudi arabia has cut oil prices for asia and europe, as lagging economies and lockdowns affect demand.

it will be in line with trader's expectations, including brent futures. it is planning updated returned office priorities. the ceo told the conference, -- he says the policy will add formality to flexibility and be specific to each business unit. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn, this is bloomberg. paul: thanks. assets in china's esg doubled since 2021, lifted by beijing's growing emphasis on policy -- poverty alleviation and energy security. jonathan joins us now. does esg and china have the same

definition or is it being enacted to achieve product -- policy priorities. >> it is generally true in many places that government policies can support esg. it is being clearly defined almost everywhere. what you have in china is a definition of industries that may become part of the rationale. if you are looking at the eaton esg, it is most likely a different definition in different markets. in china's of the definition will likely include nuclear and coal, it is still going to be a big part of the countries power. . we believe that coal can still take up 40% by 2030. shery: what are china esg investors looking for? >> a very important question.

it is a trans value base, the past two years, the term value all at the same direction. that's -- electric vehicles upon popular. they are still being discussed today, because the valuation has seen an adjustment since last year, we may not see the same level of enthusiasm or momentum going forward. paul: is there a climate for more regulation and china around greenwashing? like we are seeing in the eu and potentially the u.s.? >> chinese regulators are just starting to talk about corporate esg disclosure. it's going to be important for investors to narrow down the target to fit their own death --

own definition of esg. we think the better disclosure will still help the government better manage to help the company's -- the country's transition. shery: you mentioned how their facing returns of does that -- what does esg investing look like in terms of are there significant results? will continue? >> we think the government effort to decarbonizing will continue. we think that main demands for industries will be there. we think it is too early for china to see value-based investing. shery: jonathan with the latest on china esg investing. coming up, investor kevin loo remains cautiously optimistic in the macro environment for crypto. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: let's take a quick look at trading on the asia pacific. evidence of selling at the moment, we got the nikkei weaker by more than 1%, same story for the major indexes at the moment. here in australia, weaker as

well as up to the tune of 1%. the sei asia-pacific index, the lowest since may 2020. quite a broad based selloffs from the asia pacific right now. shery: forcing is off of cryptocurrencies as well, after the outperformance in the broader crypto calls. a theory attempts of the spotlight in the crypto space ahead of the highly anticipated merge. when the blockchain transitions. the enthusiasm leading to the outperformance. at this location has been shrinking lately as investors turn more optimistic. digital asset investor kevin loo sees a challenging macro environment for crypto over the coming months, but remains

cautiously optimistic. good to have you with us. let me start with -- were talking a lot of challenge at the 20,000 level, we are 18,000 right now. could we call this a bottom, would or do we have further momentum down? kevin: thank you for having me here. it's a pleasure to speak to you. as an early adopter bitcoin and being involved in this market for six years or so, one thing i would caution is counting on bottoms. i got in the industry because i thought about the long-term strategic value and disruption they can bring to the market. while i think we are looking at a challenging macroenvironment, i think the narrative is hard to be able to let go or drive risk asset classes. i still believe that ultimately

highly selective coins, the fundamental start to take hold, given this is the second crypto winter, we've got some validation, and ultimately some decentralized economies are starting to take hold and use it. shery: what will the impact be in terms of what long-term strategic outlook for the crypto space? kevin: i think bitcoin below 20,000, that we have been here before, it is likely we could go slightly lower. ultimately, as you have a lot of uncertainty that feeds into the markets of people will be looking at what's happening in private equities, in public debt markets, they are looking at new alternative digital asset classes. whether that be btc, a visual

commodity speculation or you look at what's happening with ethereum in the march, -- and the merge, for those that have been involved for a long time, we remember what btc was like at $3000 in the first crypto winter. the futures measure, the trend as we are heading higher for the return. paul: you mentioned etherium, the march upgrade, can you give us a sense of what that means and how significant it is? kevin: thank you, paul. i think the merge is significant. when you're working with individual asset space, we are in a hybrid, multi-chain, multi-technology environment. bitcoin being critical, the

march moving to the proof of stake. i think they can coexist. the proof of stake merge for etherium will ultimately be toward reducing its power output, trying to improve efficiency and in the longer term, reducing prices. one of the things we had a trading at 1400, it could go lower, ultimately i remain optimistic could bounce quite a bit higher than that. the one thing i would say for ethereum prices, to be cautious of is if it becomes too expensive, it can become unusable. no one really wants to use -- they will burn you on transaction fees. it makes it too expensive to use. there is a utility factor for ethereum. and they become more energy efficient, hopefully more

transaction efficient over the long term. paul: forcing a rise in interest from institutions with crypto assets? kevin: certainly. i remember when we entered into the space by early on. back then, it was difficult to get legal opinion, insurance, now you have people that are chatty her about it and how to get asset allocations to the growing universe. also, you have a situation where crypto was a topic people did not want to discuss. with the microtel in such as the metaverse, that is where you're going to find escapism, your entertainment, but also met a -- ultimately, crypto brings it to that. 2.0 becomes the environment of -- that's what scott investors on the venture-capital side and

hopefully bring market liquidity for trading. paul: kevin loo at idg asset management bank, thank you for joining us and tells us what's going on in the crypto space. work going to update you on some of the richest people, we got indian billionaire, coming from nowhere, if you look at the rich go flat -- function. he's of the third richest person on the face of the earth, quite a feat considering the assets -- some of his investments like then green energy, all performing very well in this environment. shery: adani trading at a great profit -- 750 times profit. amazon has chelation's about

100. this is an interesting personality. we are talking about a college dropout was held for ransom, survived a terror attack, and he has now. a lot of his focus on what he considers important. which so is your function -- rich go is your function. here's a check of the latest business flash headlines, edward bramson group said to be upping its investment in shenzhen bank, of the alibaba website. there are better have the wednesday deadline, offering $1.1 billion for the near 15% stake. we are told they will use the proceeds to repay debt. abu dhabi investment said to be

nearing a deal to buy investment from something. sources say that purchase could value the manager at more than $2.1 billion. they could announce an agreement in the coming weeks. tencent is said to mordred than double its stake in ubisoft. -- more than double its stake in ubisoft. governors at ubisoft will remain unchanged and tencent will not have any operational bodies. paul: still to come, weakening weighing on china. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: awakening you on may be -- a weakening yuan -- this chart showing when it is weak, chinese stocks are weak as well. let's get more from our senior equities reporter. this sounds like it is

counterintuitive. we know china has a huge exporter. you would think, you have a week chinese currency, that is going to be a competitive edge for these exporters, why is this happening in the stock market? >> a weaker yuan is a burden for the chinese economy. it is counterintuitive considering china is the world's largest exporter. if you look at the stock market, the biggest companies in the chinese stock market are demand oriented companies, such as tech companies, e-commerce or financial like insurance companies. within the top 20 companies in msci china, as far as stock markets are concerned, a weaker

yuan is not helpful for the market. it's different from other export driven markets like south korea, japan or taiwan, were exporters are a component segment of the market. paul: there must be some exporters that are benefiting from this cheaper yuan, though, right? >> there are two companies with overseas revenues. they are see adl, the world largest battery maker, and a carmaker. these shares have been falling sharply the past several sessions because warren buffett

cited a stake in byd, that is a much bigger concern for investors, the stocks have rich valuations at the moment. apart from those stocks, the export environment is not necessarily good. both the u.s. and europe economy is in fear of recession. when the export varmint is the worst on prices since 2008. in addition, u.s. administration -- fed administration is increasingly hawkish against china. u.s. chip companies, such as nvidia and conductors. and extending trump era tariffs.

paul: senior equities reporter and a u.k. said no -- some socks were watching ahead of opening and china, automakers in focus. shares of chinese ship bankers as well -- chipmakers as well. they strong -- we are watching aluminum producers as well. the jump in the inventory adding to mounting evidence of weakening demand one of the world's most important industrial mills. that is it from "bloomberg daybreak: asia." as we look ahead to the start of trading in shanghai and shenzhen and hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪

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