>> welcome to first word news. the white house is offering state and local governments $1 billion over four years to fight cybercrimes. is part of an effort to beat back attacks from criminals who have targeted everything from pipelines to meet factories. this comes from an infrastructure bill that was passed last year. despite the somber mood, with the death of queen elizabeth, decisions to shut down the economy on the day of her funeral have drawn mixed reactions. this includes criticism and in some cases, widespread confusion. the u.k. government announced that monday would be a national bank holiday. schools will be close, but companies are left to decide whether or not to stay open. the economic crisis in lebanon

is getting worse. toy guns and angry citizens have forced their way into as many as seven banks is weak to get their own money. the capital controls are in place across lebanon, blocking bank customers from withdrawing their money. unable to play for basic necessities, account holders will take aspirin measures to get a hold of their cash. three quarters of the country's population now lives in poverty. the russian president acknowledged indian concerns under his invasion of ukraine. he met with a prime minister today. during a meeting, he said now is not the time for war. cap -- putin said he will do everything to end this as soon as possible. the meeting came one week after mr. pruden told his chinese counterparts that he understood beijing's worries about the war. global news, 20 for hours a day, on lumber quick take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and

analysts in 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> welcome to bloomberg markets. let's dive right into the price action. you are starting to see some not so great days for the stock market create a lot of pain. 1.3% with fear stricken by one name. fedex. what does it say about the global economy. is the recession closer than a lot of economists really thought it was. take a look at the yield. 344. really unchanged when it comes to a basis move, but it is intraday volatility want to keep an eye on. with that move, you are seeing the dollar kind of stay fairly steady. 1309 on the bloomberg dollar index, but a slight index on the

session weighing on the commodity space, down by five densa 1%. as we look a little deeper, according to the stock movers, we have been shying away from technology. platforms are preparing for facebook platforms. close to 3%. it's basically dancing around levels we saw during the first big dip in 2020. on the doorstep of levels we haven't seen since 2019. shopify and canada, and another example of tech names and pressure. changing a compensation program to give employees and opportunities to take more cash versus stock, given the change in sentiment around equity right now. you are covering the supply chain story with trade tensions. yesterday, and today, it shares are under pressure after the cfo made it clear that they are dealing with their own headaches on the supply chain making hard to deliver deck -- jet engines. you talked about the fedex selloff. let's show everyone how are talking about a 22% decline. if that seems unusual, it is.

we are set up for one of the worst days in the past four decades. prophetic shares. we will stick with that. bloomberg spoke with jonathan chapelle from emerson about how it is affecting the company. take a listen. >> in europe, there was undoubtedly recession. our economists have been calling for a global recession for some time. that is based on what is going on in your. you understand what is going on with fedex is mostly export. it's aircraft coming out of parts of china to the western world. that slowdown is associated with lockdowns, and consumer demand. let's tie it all together. there is a u.s. element. it's important to separate your recession slowly, and that is not our call. but there is an element of the u.s. having an impact here. we have seen that in round business which missed expectations by 300 million in

the first quarter. >> let's stick with that topic. joining us is our bloomberg intelligence senior analyst for logistics. always a pleasure. let's start where jonathan left out. the ground business, when it comes to fedex. they say that is the indicator that the night states of slowing down faster than expected. is that your take? yes. i would say this is more of a fedex problem than it is a global economic readthrough. obviously, two thirds of the preannouncement is probably due to fedex individually, in the third to the macro factor. reality is that they are an express business. it is really having issues, and they mentioned in a release that they are having some sort of service challenging year. you can read that as an issue with acquisition, and there is an acquisition from 2016. it was hit with a debilitating cyber attack 2017, and it could

force the company to close, if it wasn't for fedex capital. it would likely not be in existence today. that organization is fully integrated from a couple months ago. a lot of us, we are looking at fedex, were expecting to see benefits from that, but it seems like those benefits are not coming. we will have to wait even longer for any benefits from that acquisition to happen. the reason they bought it is they want to be better with ups. on ups, eight they had a sell side analyst day, and it was on the eighth of september. they reiterated their guidance. obviously they are not seeing the same things that fedex is seeing. into that, they had a capital market today, and they also are not bringing to bear any major issues with demand. a lot of it is really fedex specific. i would also note that jumpers

-- john mentioned issues going on in china. the reality is that fedex has more exposure in china than ups does. on a relative basis, ups is probably stronger in europe over fedex. there are weaknesses in those regions versus the united states. it is driven by consumer, is -- consumers, and consumers are strong. it is still good, even as the fed tightens. >>. some good perspective there. , especially given the size of the selloff. not just in fedex, but with company specific issues, so the macro worried at markets have been reacting and worth contacts rising, given the specific issues. >> we appreciate your time is always with bloomberg intelligence. as we were talking about, the story of setting up some economic uncertainty is the fed is set for another aggressive rate hike on wednesday of next

week. let's get some perspective. marina is with them as a u.s. economist. now, the market is really going to get ready for a new fed speak after a week with some sobering reminders of the inflation challenges. what are you looking for heading into next week? >> i think we have a fed meeting next week, and we are focusing a lot on the size of pipes from the fed. at the next meeting. but i think what will matter more will be the indication of how they are revising the terminal rate. that is closer to three and three quarters percent in the june summary of economic projections, and it's bound to increase in this set of revisions in the forecast. and the back of those very surprises from the labor market, and inflation as you mentioned, so we are looking at the fed,

and they need to provide us a little bit more guidance as to how they are going to move from this unusually large 75 basis point hike to something more incremental over the coming months. in today's price action from a market perspective, it is all about that fedex profit warning, known as a global bellwether because of how closely they can monitor exactly what is going on in terms of shipping in economic activity. do you take the same message on a macro sphere about a slowing u.s. economy from the fedex numbers? we need to be careful whenever we look at these reports. how much of that is a trend. what i mean about the micro trends is that there is truly a

scenario that we are looking at in the u.s. for the rest of the a. activity is such -- said to slow, and with retail sales, we also have a painful adjustment coming as consumers spend less on goods, and more on services. that's going to affect companies that focus more on the good side of the economy. also, we have a labor market that has been surprising to the outside, but it is a matter of time before employment. we are looking at surveys, they are not hiring at as fast the pace as they did earlier in the year. >> obviously, for these companies as well, watching what is happening with the currency is a key consideration. obviously, we are monitoring what is happening with the u.s. dollar, but you said it before.

i want to give an opportunity to say it again. a rally you have seen certainly has to be a consideration for the federal reserve. >> that is something they watch closely, and it is not sending a straightforward signal. there is a sense that it is positive in the fight for inflation. a stronger dollar will have to be imported. it's also a vote of confidence in a world where we are balancing so many risks and headwinds. the u.s. remains a bright spot in spite of challenges, but it will hurt growth down the line in company profits, and it does feed through to the real economy and the second round affect. >> the u.s. economist for t. rowe price. great to have you. thank you. coming up, texas instruments authorizes buybacks.

we'll look at what is behind the move in a difficult year chip stocks. that is next. this is bloomberg.

>> bloomberg markets with kriti gupta. i'm trying not to nerd out, but i think i will, just this one time. there is a chart that caught my eye. were going to bring back down the old-fashioned dow theory. the idea that if you have the transports, they are outperforming the dow jones average. the economy is on a good track, and if it's underperforming is not looking good for the economy, there a broader benchmark as well. that being said, as we talk about real strikes, labor issues, supply chain issues, and what we're hearing from the fedex, the ripple is alongside ups and amazon. it will come back in the play, but i will throw out a contrary and take it may be said of looking at transports, which are kind of a high-frequency indicator of exactly what is going on, let's talk about chips instead. maybe that is a high-frequency indicator because it is not just about the united states. it's about a global economy.

what is your take on that? >> thing about the stock performance as we start to see a lag in those chip names. obviously, the uncertainty will rise. we will see the stock index for the nasdaq 100. we also have heard about in the industry, slower sales for memory chips. the actual performance in the industry is generally a great indicator of what is going? >> we come back to the theory that if your needing more industrial chips or transportation things, it is still going to reflect what you're seeing, that is something we will ask our guests for the next couple of hours. thank you for playing with me. we had a little minute to figure it out. it's always fun. let's talk about a big company in the space. texas instruments is authorizing more buybacks. for more insight, we welcome our

bloomberg intelligence. welcome as always. don't worry. i will not ask you about the theory. that is just for me and john. i will ask you about texas instruments. a big move with buybacks and dividends. what is your take? >> we know that demand is going down. the thing about chips is the cycle will be no different in the sense that some elements of the chips will peak and cross at different times. that is what you will see with analogs and logic memory. that is typically the earliest 12 peak and trough. my sense is, texas instruments is announcing a buyback because they have a cash flow with $5 billion in peak assets, and i think they have nothing better

to do at this point of time than to return to the shareholders, and look. i think they like this process, but in general, my sense is the consumer side is deeper. there is a shift toward services which are burning the nature at this point time. >> this is a company. connect me -- correct me if i'm wrong, but sharing the outlook, there is something relatively rosy because of those components to the business that have held up elegantly well. it is important not just for something shareholder friendly, but something shareholder friendly, but also to keep spending. here's a company that manufactures the majority of his chips in its own facility, and it happened looking to invest in that any long-term. >> look. i think they will be quite strategic about it, given what is going on at a geopolitical level.

at the end of the day, the fork is -- forecast is an inventory correction across the board, whether it is analog, or logic. it will hurt chip demand for all of the functions with negative announcements, whether it is nvidia or amd or any other company. inventory correction is a given for 2023, and that is why it is prudent to allocate the free cash flow. >> i'm looking at the geographic breakdown of texas instruments it the fa function. 88.9% of its revenue comes from abroad. 65% of that comes from asia specifically. we are seeing some extreme weakness, relative to the dollar. talk to us about the currency

impact on the bottom line of texas instruments. >> absolutely. i think all of these companies have a pretty high exposure, and they are good with their strategies. i think it is not going to hit them as big as you might see in the currency. look. i think there is a demand exhilarating. i guess the positive in nvidia, is that they are so big that in the end, the sectors cyclical, and there is no other place to go. we will see that before rebound. really awful context -- helpful context. a reminder for more research from bloomberg intelligence, you can use the function bi on the terminal. very helpful print will take a

quick break. coming up, we discussed the movement of the pound on the 30th anniversary of black wednesday. this is bloomberg.

>> is time for what it's worth. the price of the pound is sitting in its weakest level since 1985. if you want to get specific, were looking at the performance versus the u.s. dollar. 1.1397. the 30th anniversary could be on black wednesday. that is a milestone. earlier, they spoke on fx strategy. also what is happening.

>> the person that came to my mind was the position of the u.k. because if you have a current account deficit, don't forget that the u.k. deficit is right now at record levels. it is much worse than it was a 1992, but if you have a deficit, really, you are exposing your country to the whims of domestics, but you will adjust lower. i think that is something that is happening to the pound for a while. the market doesn't like the growth story or the brexit story. it doesn't like the fact that the tax cuts that are coming could really push the finances into numbers they just don't like. it is vulnerable in the current account position. it really exposes the u.k., and a lot of the story is dollar strength, but there is certainly a weakness here. >> great context.

obviously, the pound is not pegged, so there are some differences, but the point about tax cuts, that is something we are watching on the pound right now, along with how the currency performs versus central-bank strategies in the u.s. with aggressive move of the u.s. dollar strength. >> what's interesting is that with the bucket, with hundred basis points, there could be a rate differential, and the feedback loop of that is that it comes back to the dollar. the euro weakness is drawing the dollar. now, it feels like the pound weakness is drawing a dollar. >> we've seen a canadian dollar. that will be weak against the greenback, and that cycles into the commodity performance. as we look at the markets, a lot of those commodity stocks have struggled as well. >> something we will keep our eye on. on the screen, we will keep you posted throughout the session.

for jon erlichman and kriti gupta, this is bloomberg.

>> i'm mark crumpton. i'm mark crumpton with first word news. in ukraine, president zelenskyy is demanding that russia be held accountable or more crimes. this follows the discovery of a mass grave site. the graves were found near a city that russian troops abandoned last week. the associated press cited a prosecutor who said somebody showed signs of torture. liz truss will meet joe biden for