>> let's dive right into the nasdaq right here. we are seeing a mixture when it comes to the market. losses have compared to s&p 500, flat on the day. all the action is in the bond market. not just 75 basis points on wednesday, but perhaps at the next meeting as well.

getting very, very close to that key 4% level. a seven point basis move. the 10 year yield moving as well. it's important to note that the yield curve is getting flatter. in the meantime, the dollars getting marginally stronger, making a full round trip in today's session. >> i think one question is how much conviction is ultimately out there, even though we bounced off early declines today in the crypto world. caution when it comes to bitcoin. coinbase is under pressure today. it is interesting that you have some mulch recalls -- wall street calls of rallies going forward. homebuilders have been moving higher today after some bullish comments on the sector. it always helps things when some activists are the mix. we have seen that with weeks and star board. though shares up more than 13%. and we have learned there have

been some conversations with elliot about their game plan going forward, so committing to some buyback plans. speaking of, we will get more perspective later this hour with the executive chairman of another gold player, jan mata. kriti: something to keep and i on. but as we talk about these equity stocks, it is the macro that seems to be driving trade. equity strategist after equity strategist. we spoke with one chief economist about the impacts on the fed's actions so far. take a listen. >> a long time ago, we would say it takes 12 to 18 months for any good actions really feed three. but we are already seeing that actions are having an impact on the housing market. that is certainly a positive for the fed, in terms of addressing inflation, even though the fed does not target asset prices. it certainly turns the consumer price indexes. the federal he needs to do the

work now and we should probably start seeing the effect later on next year. we are seeing key inflation turning to 2% in very early 2024. jon: let's type back to the markets on this monday. one chief equity strategist for bloomberg intelligence joining us. we start to see those signs of the central bank strategy that is having the effect that is desired. how are market or to some pins going to interpret that? >> i think it depends upon the extent of the slowdown ahead. we are already in a technical recession. bizarrely, this cycle has actually peaked well before the fed started tightening. we have seen a baby -- a pretty big can -- compression over the course of the last year or 1.5 years. there is the impact of tightening continuing to accelerate that process. i think one of the things to really ask about the outlook is

how deep the recession will be. how much will economic growth be dependent on low interest rates to start and how much will it change going forward? kriti: as we have seen in the bond market pricing in what was announced on wednesday and potentially meetings after, i am curious what the hedge is going into wednesday. what is your take? >> i think the market is extremely nervous. everything inflation-related, we saw that last week with one of the most vicious responses to cpi we have seen in the market history. we have priced and a lot of expectation for the fed in the very near term. i think a lot of the focus going into the next meeting really be about the long-term outlook, what terminal rate looks like. will it slowdown going forward and what is the fed really looking for, because there is a lot of confusion on what will make the fed happy. is the core 2% enough to make

them slow down or do we need to get to 2% cpi for they start to feel really confident in the outlook? the other thing we are not talking a whole lot about in the market is the balance sheet. where does the fed expect to go with that? what are the dependencies that they are looking at for that balance sheet tightening process and what are they -- and where do they ultimately want to land? i think there are still some trigger points to watch for. we did go a long way to pricing in a lot with last week's cpr reaction, but there are still some uncertainties in the market. jon: i want to come back to the idea of a soft landing for those in the market that are still wearing that hat. what is your interpretation of that? wells fargo was on bloomberg surveillance today, talking about the idea of a soft landing being like landing a plane on a picnic blanket. you go back more than a dozen rate height cycle since the

1950's, only a small portion of those, at best one third, have turned to soft landings. what is your sense on how market expectations are still trying to bake that into the equation? >> i'm not sure, because i'm not sure what self landing really means be a we are already in a technical recession a soft landing doesn't mean we don't go into a more onerous recession. i think it is really questionable. i don't use it too much. frankly, what we see is the most likely outlook for earnings, based upon the fact that we continue to see a slowdown in employment growth, we see unemployment slowdown, it looks a bit more stable than a typical recession outlook that we have experienced for the last several cycles. it would imply we get about 4% earnings going forward. the consensus has been about 8%. there is still some downside to earnings. how does the recession actually impact the market? the market's

forecast some degree recession already. we've been talking about this for much of this year, really starting in june. the market was already forecasting at least a material slowdown coming into 2023. but the degree of that slowdown is really under question right now. i think a soft landing is kind of out of the question. we have already seen a contraction in gdp. we have already seen them starting to price in some sort of recession. it is really just a dig. of the recession coming. kriti: we thank you. let's get a little bit more context on the markets, a little bit more context on the trade our next guest joining us is tom damon, head of america's investment solution. quite the title we are expecting more volatility. i want to pose the same question to you. what is the hedge going into wednesday? >> when you see the current market environment, there is

this level of uncertainty. what's interesting is we are already -- we are always in uncertain times. but the market thinks it is certain about things. i think they don't really know the planning. they know the fed is raising rates, but we don't know the impact. jon: just to stretch things out, kriti is asking about this week. but over the long term, this idea of effectively fighting inflation could ultimately lead to a very bullish scenario for the markets. i know to a certain degree, you have been thinking about that scenario longer-term. >> definitely. the near term their case is the fed. if it goes higher, we have seen what happens when terminal rate rises, what it does to markets. when you think of going back to volker, he was extremely tight, and that was the highest market rates we've ever seen.

although we are a little bare right now, we will have much longer-term benefits. kriti: there seems to be a consensus baked into the market that basically the stock market is more about the macro than the micro. what does the stock market need to hear from jay powell to actually have a sustainable rally? >> i think we need him to not surprise us. once we get a feel for the direction he is going and it is predictable, the market will look at that and see the relative value in energy and health care. for right now the fed is kind of dragging the ship. jon: just to add in the fixed income market, investors are trying figure out where equities go, you cannot ignore what has been happening in the world fixed income and what used to be the 60/40 split that everyone would talk about and became so frustrated with. what is your interpretation of

what has been happening in that portfolio mix this year? >> the market is thin. it is crating opportunity. the 6040 portfolio is no longer dead. there is no alternative. there is one. you can get a return for fixed income. at the beginning of the year, if you are modeling and around 4% returns for a 60/40 portfolio, now you are looking at 6%. for long-term investors, the environment is a lot more in -- is a lot more attractive than it was at the start of the year. kriti: but you just said that there is an alternative to that concept, but it has gone away. any decelerating impairment, which we are in globally, isn't growth supposed to excel? >> it should, but the problem with growth stocks is they are very dependent on interest rates. that is where they get hit the quickest. i think where you will see a pivot in the market is when the

fed reaches that terminal rate and then you can see a really strong market reaction on that first lowering of rates. i think that is quite a way down the road. kriti: is it interest rates or the dollar? which one is the biggest growth? >> right now, the dollar is as strong as we have ever seen it. i think we can expect continued strength. but when we hit terminal rate, that is when you will see a rapid weakening of the dollar. the u.s. is well ahead of other markets. jon: we have certainly seen that strong u.s. dollar play against the canadian currency among others. just to bring you back to something gina martin adams was talking about, the concept of soft landing at this point. as we referenced, you go back to the 50's and more than a dozen rate height cycles, it is rare to execute on and unquote -- on a quote soft landing. >> thing about 20% of the time

you can get a soft landing. in the short run, you want a soft landing. but in the long run, you couldn't get a job. there was a dramatically hard landing. but it really set the stage for longer-term benefits. but here's where we could get a soft landing. if the big drivers of inflation, supply change management and oil disruption, and we get positive news on that front, that helps the fed. that will get them halfway there without the fed having to keep raising rates. jon: helpful context. thank you very much. we get ready for the fed decision on wednesday. today, a day of mourning for queen elizabeth ii, as world leaders and the royal family gather to say a final farewell. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

kriti: this is bloomberg markets. i'm kriti cute. in just under an hour, queen elizabeth ii will be buried alongside her husband at a private seen -- private family service. it will bring to end a day of mourning, attended by local

dignitaries. a procession through the streets of london and a service by the chapel at windsor castle. joining us now is alexander, the -- a famous author. we will start with the legacy of queen elizabeth, relative to her predecessors, but also winston churchill. >> she is the most sequential queen and monarch to serve ever in history, certainly the 21st century. today has been a very emotional day. it really is the end of an era. lots of people, myself included, had a real sense of how she [indiscernible] most people have never seen anything to compare to it in the streets of london. i think there was a seriousness of it. today was very much a serious day, which flicks her

personality. the queen was serious during serious times. i think she was seen in the best possible way she could have been. jon: just to build on that point, he talked about pageantry. you also talked about the economic reality for great britain right now. what do you make of that juxtaposition of the fact that when it comes to the future, the financial uncertainty, there are so many other issues that are on the table right now? >> i think heard death is important to the country. obviously, britain is seeing all sorts of difficulties now. there is a general feeling that it's not just our country as well. [indiscernible]

i think britain now has a real potential to be a world power and what the queen represents in terms of diplomacy. i think about the realities of it, it is hard to think of the direct coronation and what happened today. i feel like the world's eyes have been on britain and i am happy to see how the event has gone. what i would be hesitant to do now is say that this is a global rebirth. i'm not sure it is. it is definitely the end of an era. kriti: one of the criticisms of the monarchy is simply that it is an antiquated historical tradition, but queen elizabeth was known for many things over the years, including bringing access, television access, all

caps access to her or nation, her life inside the palace with princess margaret, access to the palaces, which the public didn't have access to, as well as divorce among her sister and children. walk us through the elements of modernity during her rule. >> when she became queen after her father died, younger than expected, there was a real sense that the royal family was in trouble. there was a real sense that she could show a physical was. what she showed was our component and she was good at making sure her family seemed like more. i think she was disappointed by prince harry and the things he was involved in. [indiscernible] that obviously made her feel unhappy on a more personal level. but if you leave that aside, you can take her reign as a remarkable evolution, because what she understood was that for

the royal family to survive the 20th and 20th -- 21st centuries, and to process -- and to prosper, there had to be a level of transparency. there was a documentary in 1969 about the royal family that has not been repeated. nevertheless, she did remarkably well. people used to her being very open. if you look at the duchess of sussex, people complain constantly that we can see the difference between her and the queen. [indiscernible] people felt that they knew her. i think that because of that, there has been a real sense of grief far beyond what most public figures would get. jon: really helpful context,

alexander. we appreciate your time today. thank you for sharing all of that with us. coming up, the price of gold has taken a hit. we are going to get some perspective on the road ahead. the executive of the gold the executive of the gold company ja ♪♪ energy demands are rising. and the effects are being felt everywhere. that's why at chevron, we're increasing production in the permian basin by 15%. and we're projected to reach 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2025. all while staying on track to reduce our carbon emissions intensity in the area. because it's only human to tackle the challenges of today to help ensure a brighter tomorrow.

>> this is bloomberg markets. time now for what it's worth. we are looking at the price of gold, which has been sitting around $16.70 per ounce. obviously, we have not seen what some gold thugs thought would be a bounce. part of that has to do with the ongoing strength of the u.s. dollar. earlier, we spoke with one u.s. gold executive chairman.

here's what he had to say. >> it at a low point that we haven't seen since 2020. if you go back to perhaps 2015 or 2016, you look at the gold price and how it compares to 2020, and how it compared to today. again, it is very difficult to see a gold price over a short period of time. but i think directionally, the price continues to be strong and get stronger. [indiscernible] the u.s. dollar has definitely shown strength and resilience. equally, i think the direction of the gold price will find a base and start to establish upset. i think that really resonates for me is that each and every time we look at these levels, we begin to see there is strong support coming from countries

like india. china has been in covert restrictions for a very long period of time. as they come out of those restrictions, i think is that buying begins to manifest itself, we begin to see strong gold prices again. jon: peter maroney, chief executive chair of yamana. we have seen a number of gold companies committed today to some stock buybacks. we have seen a well-known investor in elliott, because shareholders are important at a time like this. until we sealed -- until we see a real change in the u.s. dollar, you have to wonder what lies ahead for bullion. kriti: there hasn't been a real gold piece because of what rates are doing. real rates aren't higher and they are getting that much returns from gold anyway, so why bother to weigh them with things like cryptocurrency?

a lot to digest here. for now, the markets we are seeing flat on the screen here. the s&p 500 down just about eight. a two-year yield 294 basis points. whether we get to four in this session is a bit of a stretch. still something to watch. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world you're the first word i am arc crumpton -- mark crumpton. >> hundreds of thousands of people lined up for miles to pay tribute to queen elizabeth, today's funeral and subsequent journey to the final resting place in windsor was a last public rooms for a woman who reigned over her country for 70 years. global dignitaries from president biden to amp or here he to come were among the guests -- amber