tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg September 26, 2022 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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anabel: we are counting down to asia's major market open. shery: the top stories this hour. u.s. stocks in freefall, the 10-year yield rising higher and volatility spiking past 30, bearish market sentiment looks far from exhausted. haidi: the pound continues to tumble as markets are overwhelmed. shery: we speak to u.n. general assembly president about john just a world order and building trust in a time of war. this is after the s&p 500 fell in the new york session, we had a brief rebound that did not last. we continue to see the hawkish sentiment come from global central banks and that is affecting markets. we heard from the doe, not of assurance on u.k. assets. we had more hawkish rhetoric
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coming from been officials. -- from officials. this is at the highest level since 2010, the two year yield, also rallies for 13 consecutive sessions, hawkish expectations and crude prices continuing to fall in the asian session, below $77 a barrel level. the broader index now at an eight month low. we were looking at sterling, in fact by now we continue to see the downside pressure against the u.s. dollar, not as much as when it touched a 103 level and was closer to dollar parity. we have continuing selloff in the 10-year yield, past the 4% level. the highest since 2010. we have lost by 25% this year, we are already in a bear market. how those comments from the doe
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and any efforts to support u.k. assets have been perceived by the markets after they fiscal plan from the u.k. government, it sent invent -- it made investors anxious. haidi: how they can actually fund those massive cuts? the currency we are focusing on in asia, a very important one is at risk of being torpedoed by the strong dollar, we have the offshore yuan and yen. take a look at what we are seeing in the offshore yuan. we also have the currency, it has been picked up by the pboc, not enough to stem the slide we are seeing. we see the yen, we are back on levels we had before the doj, the significance of that when you look at what it means for the markets as a whole.
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the currency risk is actually a bigger challenge than interest rates. they are using overseas funds to pull money out of the right. we are looking to a pretty mixed side across the board. the aussie dollar may be in oversold territory. we are keeping an eye on what we are seeing in the qe dollar this morning. -- kiwi dollar this morning. a contrast to what we are hearing from the likes of the doe. haidi: that was a surprise which caused a renewed selloff when it comes to the pound, sending it to the record low again. a joint effort by the boe, troy of sentiment. they say they are delaying the action until november as they say only as they closely monitor
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the action and the effects of what they are saying across fx markets, they could be waiting for the november meeting. this is also dropping to the record lows, speculation has been that they would launch a stronger form of convention, possibly including emergency rate to stem the decline. we saw another round of selling, that is a lack of immediate action. shery: all of this is coming from global central banks does not help the global economic picture. we have concerns but a global recession and geopolitical tensions are adding to that anxiety, we are hearing from financial firms they are reassessing the risks of doing business in greater china. once perceived as a market that could really get away from all of the fears of a slowdown, as tensions over taiwan are not helping. sources are telling bloomberg that may have asked staff to
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review contingency plans in the past few months to manage exposure. we know the global insurers have been backing away, lyrical risk coverage, more than 60%, you put all of this together with the central-bank action, hawkish at the moment, it does not bode well for investment sentiment -- investor sentiment. everything else on the market, let us bring in on markets reporter, let me start with you. you were watching what sterling was doing. you continue to see the downside pressure despite the efforts coming from policymakers. what could be next? >> sentiment is about the market. look at the u.k. on the, an increase by 50 basis points in one day move.
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to put the number in perspective, what happened, why that is a tremendous fall in the market and there is not much liquidity because they are a step away. today, they downplayed the hike. they are looking for the downside in the pound. markets are looking for 50% of the chance for it to reach parity. haidi: this is a broken market, are there any good options? what does an -- does an intermediate meeting make much of a difference?
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>> they do not know the extent or the dealer ability the market move. -- durability of the market move. they do not know the size or magnitude of rate hike it would take to stabilize and restore a bit of the lost ground for the pound. we saw the government in the news of disappointing markets by flanking that they do not want to make an emergency move. we want to see how things develop and wait for the next meeting in order to act. we think the drop in the pound, what that means for the imported inflation, and will force the banks into a 100 basis point move in the next meeting. that is going to come with increased costs for the u.k. economy. very sensitive, especially big moves in interest rates. resolution of this problem,
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perhaps has to come from the place where the problem started. the treasury is going to have to look again at his numbers and ensure it is putting a plan which is credible and keeps the sustainable. haidi: you see the yuan getting sucked into this dollar vortex. is there a bottom or do see something beyond 70.2? >> 70.2 is the bigger number, we have not touched that in more than a decade. so far, the problem is from china's perspective, look at the yuan traded, it is flat. the dollar is hiking rates aggressively. all of these currencies, chinese
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currency included will come under pressure. as a mitigating factor is that china is enjoying a large surplus and they account for the poles having been closed. balance the payment picture in china is much better compared to a couple years ago. they do not need to do a lot for the market to stabilize. shery: we are not getting there yet, despite the pboc's interventions. what can we expect next in the central-bank's playbook? >> keep in mind that the drop in the pound we are seeing today is a reflection of a serious policy misstep by the british government. the drop in the yuan in china is a reflection of the u.s. entering the policy that is
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right for them, i keen interest rates to control inflation and the chinese banks are pursuing the policy that is right for them. cut rates to support growth. it is a kind of fundamental misstep or driving the -- it is a kind of fundamental step that is driving the changes. i weaker yuan has some pretty important plus points. it boosts export competitiveness, it brings in more foreign earnings at a time when the domestic economy is weak. we see the pboc take steps using the yuan fixing, different instruments to control how sensitive it is. to try and slow the slide in the yuan. i expect them to continue to do so.
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fundamentally, i do not think the yuan weakness at this point for china is a reflection of policy failure. i think it has some important upsides for a chinese economy which needs some new drivers. shery: that is tom at our markets reporter on the various currency moves. let us get over to vonnie quinn. >> -- says more rate hikes are needed. speaking in boston, they did not specify how much more tightening would be needed but they want to see inflation hold before concluding it has peaked. fed officials expect rates to hit 4.4% by the end of this year. >> we are committed to bring inflation back down to below 2%. we took another decisive action
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to remove monetary policy accommodation. we raised the fed funds rate by 25 basis points. we are continuing the process of producing assets off of our balance sheet which also produces accommodations. >> they expect economic growth to slow next year, the organization cut its 2023 global growth forecast from his earlier protection -- production. the last forecast had indonesia getting a's moderately higher album. in says interest rate hikes are needed in most economies to tame inflation. >> we are slowdown of the economy, the united states going 0.5% next year. it is a slowdown in china this year and next year, recovering a little bit. globally, we are talking about a significant slowdown. >> vladimir putin has granted
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citizenship to edward snowden. he disclosed the top-secret information from the united states. he obtained permanent residency in 2020. he showed how the u.s. had been monitoring communications of citizens without having them suspected of a crime. tiktok and biden administration has an agreement to allow the company to continue operating in the u.s.. an agreement would allow their platform to continue operating in the u.s. with additional restrictions on how data from american users is stored. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: the when -- the un
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markets and in the currency market. >> the u.k. lacks credibility in markets. >> the crisis of confidence. >> we will determine which way it goes. >> we have to do more. >> the bank of england needs to hike up by 200 basis points. >> if they do not raise rates this week -- >> it will take another hit. >> i think we break the parity before christmas, probably by the end of november. haidi: weighing in on the volatility in the u.k. markets. our next guest says he is -- she is not in the recession camp process that the chances of a soft landing is increasingly slim, we have laila pence of
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pence wealth management. how are you taking shelter or finding opportunities? laila: we have an increased cash position. cash pays for something. we are -- money markets are paying close to 2.5% and the bond is over 4%, we have had a lot of money in cash over this month and we are getting to earnings because we are in a waiting game. we need to see some direction, inflation has started to go down. we saw in august, inflation went up instead of down. everyone is nervous. markets do not like to be surprised and they got surprised with the numbers. haidi: you say there are pockets of this market that is being too
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>> and quick check on the latest business flash headlines, elon musk and the twitter ceo are seeking to reschedule their depositions over musk's $40 million buyout. they were scheduled to face questioning on monday, must is in delaware and the other ceo is in san francisco. muska wants his move to a different location. amazon will hold a second time day sale on october 11 and 12, targeting consumers starting the holiday shopping early. they are bracing for a slow season because of higher inflation. they may need to rely on deep discounts to move a lot on products. this is the first time they have hosted this sale of it twice in one year. apple is making the iphone 1480
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india faster than anticipated. this comes after a surprisingly smooth product rollout. the original goal was to assemble iphones in areas two months after global launch. bloomberg shows volkswagen is likely to offer in the top end in the official range. the carmaker will be valued at almost $73 billion, they are expected to set the ipo price on wednesday with shares to begin trading thursday. haidi: take a look at the day ahead in australia and new zealand, the bridge has released the information of 10,000 customers. they have slashed the growth forecast in june, s&p says the aaa credit rating remains a study ahead of the next month's
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budget. the tightening cycle is much work, it still has some work to do on interest rates. take a look at how it currency markets are trading because it is all about the king dollar. the bloomberg dollar index is gaining ground and is above the $1352 level. we are trading at levels we have not seen in years. the point is every other trade on the other is the british pound, losing ground, we so what are three levels but we are down .3%, the euro is moving around after we saw the inventory in injury -- we saw the change in italy.
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normalized rate. they told lawmakers the interest rates remain the appropriate policy to work on inflation and tightening will be held and will reach neutral. the ecb is holding bonds during recent crises. new zealand's central bank governors says the inflation fight is over, there is to work to do. inflation is a 7.3% is too high but it is lower than many other countries. he says the tightening cycle is well. the bank may hike rates 24% by early next year -- 2.4% by early next year. the shinzo abe's funeral ceremony has -- vice president kamala, and the prime minister was from india and australia.
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residents among florida's gulf coast are stocking up and heading out of town as working ian gets closer. the storm is gaining power as it nears cuba, threatening to become the were storm to hit tampa in a century. the national hurricane center says the tropical storm winds could be coming through late tuesday. morrison 200,000 people are expected to evacuate -- more than 300,000 people are expected to evacuate. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: the bank of england and u.k. treasury have come together in a bid to calm financial markets. they will need to wait until november for a broader policy response. a college professor is a former member of the monetary policy committee, he told us this is under a huge political pressure. >> i only have been to the meeting once on october 6, after
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the failure of the rbs. the members say you haven't made an announcement, we need to weigh in on this. they say you do not get to set monetary policy so i think the door will be banged. they have spoken to me, it is all your statements. it is not represent what i think. there will be huge pressure on you. is he doing this to protect himself? maybe that is what is going on. nine people say if it was me, i would have said you did not get to speak to me, i want to hear what my colleagues think. they decide that they do nothing, that is different from what this government is under considerable pressure. it is not want the bank of england to raise rates. it is supposed to be an independent central bank.
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i think there will be huge pressures, the commentators have said sensible things. the government of the bank of england, what is your answer? i think what is going to happen is volatility in the market. what does it do? it reverses the pound. it is sinking again. shery: but i was a u.k. monetary policy committee member. haidi: some emerging markets are exposed to capital outflows, for more, we bring in our contributor garfield. thousand dollar trade is causing so much pain across the entire side. >> it is the developed markets that are causing so much of the pain. it is not that there are
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anything particularly imprudent. her fragile about a lot of them, emerging markets. when you have the euro dropping, the yen tanking, the pound follows up. that sets off a massive demand for u.s. dollar, contagion across currencies. it boosts volatility, the price of going into or out of currencies. all of that is exacerbating what has already been a difficult year for emerging-market currencies. we have seen plenty of pressure on places like turkey, argentina, hungary, among the worst metrics. this is starting to spread even to those territories which had been marked by a lot of investors as being potentially an opera performance. we have the fundamentals right.
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the foreign exchange reserves, they will have to lean on those foreign exchange reserves and a lot of pressure on supporting thailand, how it covid fairly well. -- coped fairly well. central government officials have day in and day out, monitoring of financial markets. we will potentially step in to slow down one side, and eventually the poster child is south korea. in a lot of ways it has done a decent job as far as an emerging-market currency goes. it is exposed to china, it is also exposed to the technology sector which has been a real pain point across markets this year. that is why the south korean won keeps hitting low levels. we are urgently monitoring the currency markets.
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as urgently as a monitor it, they cannot slow down the won all that much. it is not much that they can do, either by korea, not have much impact. i mean everything else that is going on, if korea is trying to support the won, the pound is crashing and the yen is under pressure, it is hard for emerging markets to push back against the rising tide. haidi: it is difficult to see what is happening now, is there a scenario where the dollar strength becomes a problem for the u.s.? >> there could be such a point. it is hard to see that because on balance, a strong dollar actually helps the fed in its efforts to slow inflation. you could argue that the dollar
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only becomes a problem for the u.s. once inflation slows down and than they're starting to worry about a chance for a recession and in particular, if the u.s. is getting serious about on shoring. bringing back home some of the manufacturing that has left over the past 30-40 years, there are programs from the biden administration of the look to do that. if that comes to the fore, you can expect a strong push back against an expensive u.s. dollar. haidi: that was garfield reynolds. shery: we can see all of these stories and all of the day's trading on mliv . you can get a market run out in one click. commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors.
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sticking with the dollar strength, morgan stanley is concerned about risk assets, let us bring in annabelle for morning calls. what are they saying? >> one of the most vocal individuals from wall street, the u.s. equity strategist, what he says is the dollar rally was unsustainable for risk assets. he is looking here at the impact it will be having on corporate profits. their calculation is everyone present pain juicy in the dollar index has a negative 15% impact on profits in the fourth quarter for the s&p 500 earnings. they are predicting a headwind of 10% from the king dollar in line with other issues like import costs. in terms of what that means, let us bring up the terminal. morgan stanley's wilson says his
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will early around -- this will end around early next year. the downside from where we are today, this is based on the midpoint of the production. the s&p 500 also looking at a crucial moving average. you can see we have touched this number over the past few decades, in terms of what this means, the circles here in green, we have bounced off of it a couple of times. here around the.com bubble burst, the financial crisis around 2008 and 2009, you can see that there was a big decline in u.s. stocks that followed. haidi: bitcoin is trading in correspondence with stocks this year, we see this connection break down a bit? annabelle: it is interesting because for much of the year when u.s. stocks declined while
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bitcoin did the same. on monday we saw a reversal which was interesting. bitcoin reached the $19,300 level off of the gains. you can see that in the crypto index, those of the losses we had in the u.s. stocks. what strategists say is happening in the market is that these long-term committed investors are starting to starting to bring in a portion of the market share. basically we will see these pele end up being the majority in the market and that bitcoin will actually fully decoupled from what we have seen in the u.s. stocks and that is trading in his own world. bitcoin is down around 50% on the year. they're saying the global adoption also slowing. shery: rising concerns about global recession, commodities also are on a downward ride.
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a key age for raw materials. new york traded oil futures are the lowest since the start of the year. su keenan joins us with the latest. the implications of king dollar and we are seeing it in commodities as well. >> the dollar is seen as a safe haven for many investors around the world. you have the fed rate hikes strengthening the dollar, that is bad news for commodities, particularly raw materials and metals, drop in the bloomberg. we see the dramatically illustrated here. raw materials prices, the bloomberg commodity spot index, an eight month low. we saw the dollars served -- dollar surge. copper is standing out, the lowest since july. we spoke on copper because it is often a proxy for global growth since it is used in so much
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construction and other industrial applications. gold is also extending its decline into the lowest it has been since april 2020. gold is also a safe haven but has fallen in the relentless gain of the dollar. again, copper is also down in the five day chart. it is signaling that the investors are really focusing in on global recession, a global slowdown and that dense demand, even supplies moving fairly tight when it comes to materials. shery: will continues to sink further. >> we saw a brief rally in the u.s. but by the end of the day, those were down. we have seen oil in the asian market come off of it lows.
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we are still in the red, we saw west texas intermediate closing at its lowest since early january. we have accrued still your its low in london. -- we have accrued still selling your its low in london. we have the volatility roller coaster, very much impacted by the currency dynamics. particularly the strong dollar and historic moves with currencies is troubling for the global outlook and that is weighing heavily on oil. we do have a bit of tightness in those concerns that opec-plus could tighten or actually reduce their output at their next meeting. the second such monthly tightening of output. the real concern is global recession, demand.
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that will dent the price of oil. there is a big global meeting in singapore taking place with all of the industry specialists and they are concerned that what we will see is a continued disconnect between the supply and demand dynamics and the price in the futures market. shery: coming up, the gwen general assembly president says the world is suffering -- the un general assembly president says the world is suffering. we have him next. ♪
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>> we need to approach russia and say that they need to loosen up. provide us with some fuel. >> we have spoke to of the russian president putin about the availability of gas. he promised me that they will look into this. there is no such commitment as of yet. we do not think they have a shortage of wheat because there is a shortage of wheat last year. shery: buying russian fuel, despite sanctions over the invasion of ukraine. the war in ukraine is in his seventh month, that was in sharp
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focus at the u.n. general assembly. joining us for an exclusive conversation is the u.n. general assembly president, csaba korosi . thank you for making the time in a busy day. you have been rushing back from a high level meeting on the eradication of nuclear weapons, timely given russia's nuclear threat. how much progress has been made? president korosi: we would like to see concrete progress, impact on the ground. that will take more time. if you listen to the member states, all 190 quandaries -- countries, all of them spoke about ukraine. today, during the nuclear disarmament meeting, basically everybody agrees on the point that in a civilized world there is no place for nuclear weapons
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in the future. nuclear threats should be removed from the books of the power. shery: the world is so fragmented getting to any agreement at the implementation of the agreement has been hard. getting to the invasion of ukraine, how much of this is an issue for the united nations as an institution? >> it is a vital and important issue. as i mentioned, 190 countries, out of the 130 active state and government spoke about the dangers of the war in ukraine and most of them expressed not only the immediate danger from the battlefield, but the impacts of the fight in ukraine on the one economy and on the country's most fragile. thousands of lives.
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there is a large majority of the member states who said this war should not have started and this war should be stopped. haidi: you also talk about speaking and talking discussions, because that so many treaties and agreements have actually have to get to implementation of all of those changes? president korosi: the member states are good in drafting solutions, agreements. we are much less good on implementing them and making an impact. i announced the motto and the priorities of my presidency which is solutions through solidarity and sustainability and science. solutions because at its time -- it is time to make an impact. the difference is inequality in
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the world within countries and among countries, destroying really rapidly. solidarity, we have a responsibility to each other. we are living, we stand together. we have evidence based. science, because we know we need a slow down and this may come together. haidi: two shery's point of credibility, if solutions can be forced when it comes to stopping military conflict, are you confident that solutions can be put in place when it concert the energy transition? you talk about science being one of the pillars of this. president korosi: we are still not there. unfortunately, the defense and
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the interest of the member states are still going apart. we are in the middle of the crisis. we cannot lose one single day. we have to try and create programs. it is easy to identify what is dividing member states. including the different approaches on how to secure energy and security. it is the only way to create common ground. we have to go and the only way we can go. haidi: there comes a time where everyone keeps saying there are unprecedented challenges, the perfect storm of supply chain and war and conflict, soaring inflation, energy as well. weather events and climate change. is there something that the agenda? is there a way for the united nations as an institution to
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take on a sense of more urgency given that so many of these problems are an issue of tidiness? >> let us be honest, let us be quite open. we have opened a new chapter of history. we have not given a name to it yet, we have not analyzed, we do not know exactly what this new chapter of history as we have entered it. we feel it. our actions should be focused. the united nations, there are 181 items. that means we have 180 one focus points, that is weight too many. i have requested member states that whatever we discussed, let us look at the big issues through the lenses of crisis management and transformation. these two avenues must be kept in mind.
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these avenues that can take out the difficult situations we have now and show where we want to see ourselves in five-years or 10 years time. shery: you want more informal conversations among diplomats including fireside chats. about what you are that will do for the next year. that is different from what is being done in the past to take the general assembly to the next level. >> that is next month, we will convene for regularly. the signs based institutions, the actors, the protectors and the financial world. to address all of those issues which are to come to the member states with a clear-cut objective. let us take their advice, let us take their objectives and concerns and take it over to the
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member states. this is not exclusively in the pockets of the member states. this is everywhere, we need everybody on board. we need everybody's wisdom, determination. we are trying to address complex issues from different angles. we need all knowledge on the table. haidi: we appreciate your time speaking with us today. the president of the u.n. general assembly general assembly. let us look at aussie and kiwi bonds as we see the jump in yields at the moment. jumping 11 basis points, the three or rising for the highest since 2012.
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with her when it comes to the move across new zealand, -- we hear when it comes to the move across new zealand, the tightening cycle is advanced, the rbn says there is work to temper inflation. the listing is behind the fed. we start to see those comments really being priced in the trading of our qe bonds as well. -- kiwi bonds as well. we have daybreak asia and the countdown to the start of trading this session. this is bloomberg. ♪
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