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david: you are watching daybreak asia, coming to live from sydney and hong kong. haidi: markets in australia have come online. the top stories this hour, tepid start to the new quarter after the immersed -- worst slump in 14 years. public holiday in china. one million barrels a day this week in fear of a global slowdown. growth comes within a tight brazilian presidential election. we are live in sao paulo. >> markets coming online, starting the week here at flat. we do have a lot of the country on public holiday, so we could see a little bit of muted trading. trading in mainland china shut monday through friday but in terms of what we are coming off your, while we are starting up a new quarter, we had the u.s.

stocks closing their third straight quarter of losses. first time we see that since 2009 and worst monthly performance since september for asian stocks in 14 years. take a look at what we are seeing in new zealand and also japan. futures because we are looking ahead. it is a cautious start as well. a couple of things were watching out for this hour, the survey in japan later this hour. we are thinking should -- business conditions should improve. just how important that week is going to be for the country's biggest exporters. the other factor we are watching for as well are the clues in what we can expect from the fed looking forward. david: we are looking at 120 basis points in terms of hikes, but then no one knows. it will depend on the data. u.s. speakers -- u.s. futures, going off a banner quarter for

the u.s. dollar. we have regained 3600 on u.s. futures today. so far early monday has been a bright. up about 3%. up to give you an update of what is happening, we are about two thirds in and as you can see it is as close as it can statistically get. 4646 will get you a close round at this hour. let's get back to the sprint story because some headlines over the weekend. -- this brent story. haidi: more signaling from opec-plus and also the data moving along is going to have a big impact going forward in this new week. let's bring in richard henderson our chief asian correspondent andrew karn is with us as well. we'll start off with you because this is another signal of the magnitude of the downside risk at the moment. what we are hearing potentially from opec. >> indeed, it will be a busy

week this week. so as we have heard, potentially a million barrels of oil, which is pushing up the price of oil. let's not forget that is done in response to concern that we might slip into a global recession. of those concerns have consistently built placing downward pretzel -- pressure on the price of oil. the response of the threat of repression -- recession which israel right now. -- which is real. we are going to remain focused on those broader narratives throughout the session. david: let me bring you in. arguably the most important data point is the jobs report coming out on friday. andrew: looking for slow but

healthy jobs growth in the u.s., 200 50,000 jobs added a month, keeping unemployment around 3.7%. wage growth in this time, that will depend on where the fed goes. if the number comes in earlier than expected, the market would say the fed is going to hike again by 75 about to show signs of weakness in the whole debate about unemployment being an indicator. first rate hikes, it might start to change the fed debate. for now, it's expected to be a good number even if it comes down. mortgages also keep going up in the u.s.. haidi: does the market rate change things when it comes to the u.s. bond market? >> well, this is a situation where bad news is good news, so any sign as enda pointed out, the federal reserve are slowing

in this monetary tightening. it's going to be great for risk assets, so that's going to be obviously a massive vocus for investors. that could see upward pressure on u.s. stocks and downward pressure on the dollar which as of course been the most popular haven trade for the last few months. david: richard, i want to bring in bond yields in australia, alongside anything on the way up, the housing market in terms of where monetary policy goes, the rbn signal that tomorrow might be the last? >> yeah, i mean, that would obviously be great for equity investors. sydney has priced in for the year to move higher. and that is eventually going to be bad for risk assets, but that impact on property prices is

quite powerful in australia. there's a lot of homeownership here. mortgages. and as the cost of those mortgages goes higher, it is actually very negative or the consumer. if they are less willing to spend and those forward indicators about how much they will spend in the coming weeks and months tends to come down, which is bad for the economy. that is the picture here with interest rates creeping higher. and at the same time, hitting property prices, which are severely down. 1.7% last month alone, one of the worst in recent memory. a lot of action in property markets prices as prices decline and rates creep higher. it is quite an economic follow. david: let's round this coverage out good we are getting the doj's survey. -- the boj's survey. paint the macro backdrop for us.

>> they have had a significant year. you might say on paper that they are booster exporters. how have we given the export given what that they have gotten from global currencies. global demand is coming off. the currencies main trading rivals are weaker at the same time. the weaker currency dividend is not playing out this year. we should get a good read on the manufacturing story for the region. haidi: cross asset reporter richard henderson and chief asian correspondent enda in hong kong. brazil's presidential race is tightening. the numbers we see have bolsonaro at 46% and up to 70% of the vote. in sao paulo, our managing editor for latin america, daniel . is it likely we could see a

runoff? daniel: good evening. that's right. they think this is headed to a runoff. bolsonaro was ahead for most of the night, they just passed him a slightly in the count. it looks unlikely that he would be able to get 50% of the votes, plus one to win this in the first round. david: daniel david year, i was going to say what we have expected from the results? the question indirectly, based on the polls, which up to this point, look very close. daniel: the polls were showing a real chance of lula winning in the first round. we had polls even published last night that were showing lula getting 50 to 51%. so the support for bolsonaro has been underestimated. the highest we saw him polling was 41% before the election. so another, you know, another

surprise here that the polls were unable to capture. haidi: we were talking a little while ago and he was saying what the difficult to going into this is with the lack of clarity on policy from either candidate. what can markets be expecting, given that whatever their policies are likely to be, restraint is going to be one of them. daniel: that's right. i think the fiscal issue is the concern obviously as you go into an election. you make a lot of populist promises. and that risk, you know, overspending, right? what we would expect in the next few weeks as we head toward the upper -- october 3 runoff would be potentially getting more details about what an economic program might look like. might have to say who is finance minister will be. up until now, he has given very few details about what he would do with the economy. you know, the market may react well to the possibility of

bolsonaro staging a comeback and having an actual chance at reelection. so far, that looks, you know, to be a small probability. but, the market as like some of the stuff he has done including privatization of state companies and putting downside to the state. so we will see, first of all, what the final number is. and then how do markets react tomorrow. haidi: daniel canceled there with the latest on the brazilian elections. and the likelihood of a runoff being more and more apparent. with one of the commentators now calling that it will run into a presidential runoff. 46% apiece, lula and bolsonaro after about 70% of the vote has been counted. we will bring you the latest as we get the details, but let's get you to vonnie quinn with the first word headlines now. vonnie: thank you. russia has suffered another operational defeat in ukraine. cutting down on plans for a

total annexation. russian troops over the weekend were surrounded by forces. it was a key logistics hub for moscow. it came days after the kremlin announced it had annexed the region after holding a referendum abled a sham by the west. u.k. prime minister liz truss to says the controversial tax rate was made by her finance minister. she told bbc her administration should have laid the ground better for the announcement. the chancellor is privately trying to head off a potential rebellion with at least a dozen governments and going opposition -- public with their opposition to the plan. the country's football league as ordered a full inquiry to the fans stampeding. it killed 131 people. after an invasion and people rushed to narrow exits. it prohibits crowd control gas

or firearms. richard lu has reached a settlement with the student who accused him of rape. a civil suit less than 48 hours before a trial was set to begin. they had been seeking at least $50,000 in damages, plus additional punitive damages and losses. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. david: just ahead, the outlook and a preview of the japan economy with the bank of japan. sentiment may be improving along the biggest manufacturing firms. coming up, more on the trading week ahead. in asia, the plan.

kameda joins us. and talks about central banks worth buying. that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ david: good morning and just the state of play across the markets, approaching the open of some. australia is up and running and of course the story within that is the move up in oil stock. we will get about in a moment, but we are flat in s&p futures. a look ahead to the week ahead. central bank decision, the rba coming out toward the end of the

week. of course, it is an all important jobs report and throughout this entire week, we will not have any trading onshore, on the mainland. we are of course shut for the national day week. let's stay on top of that for you. we are looking into a new week. what do you do with that information following what has been a terrible last few quarters. andy capron it joins us right now. he is partner and co-ceo and regent of linda capital. everything is pulled back. it's not as if we are dipping our toes into a warm comfortable toebbe here. it is jumping back into lava. do you buy this dip? andy: it is eight dip worth buying. what defines this dip, how it is different from what of what we've seen recently is it is central bank driven. the central bank does not have your back but at the same time if the central bank is what is causing the bulk of volatility, it means we have a view on what the future looks like.

as soon inflation is contained in the central bank will do that as their signal to ease off the monetary tightening. improve liquidity conditions in the market and companies can come roaring back because we are not talking about a problem in the fundamental economy, just the financial economy. david: we know that though. what we do not know is when the inflation story goes away. andy: that's right. so we do not know that. we do know that some of the news has been improving, particularly on the headline cpi level, where we see gasoline prices coming off from primarily. we see lumber getting well back inside of their normal ranges. it is going to take a few months to see a dip -- definitive coat -- conclusion on whether inflation is coming down onto the 2% level. but when we have the uncertainty, the dip will be gone because it is highly likely that wants we have a lot more visibility on a 2% or so inflation rate, investors would

use that as an all ahead clear, green light so to speak. haidi: the three to five time a year time horizon is what you are going through. so with that in mind, where would you be buying the dip at the moment? andy: sure. so where i would be buying the dip at the moment is things that would work for the bulk of this year. so what is better than the broad u.s. market so far this year has been higher quality companies. dividend pairs have this unique characteristic, which is they tend to have a lot of financial discipline. they tend to manage their business to a given profit margin, a growth over an economic cycle. that is super valuable. when the going gets a little bit tougher, when there is a lot of economic uncertainty. the other thing that has worked so far this year is the value side of the market, for the first time in a long time, i think that is slightly to continue. the reason why is what i am seeing is high commodity prices today, high commodity prices potentially in the future. and higher interest rates and improving the return on capital

that the financial sector earns. something that they have not been able to do for a very long time. haidi: you mentioned china of course as being the one to watch. and i suppose that is much more maury some in this cycle, because previously, you would have china as a cyclical global growth factor, right? what do you make of the absence of that and the greater uncertainty that we get from china. andy: you started the show by mentioning it is not quite akin to dipping your toe into a warm comfortable bathtub. dipping your toe into chinese equities, especially onshore equities is something that will feel uncomfortable. the reason i am stopping short of recommending it, but thinking that it is something that is worth watching, is there has been a lot of developments that i think are frankly newsworthy. we are starting to get american regulators, the fcc, the public accounting board, coming into china and starting to review those books. additional progress there,

improving the offshore market. what about the onshore market? the onshore market shares are significantly underrepresented in the indices that offshore investors track, which is mic i, emerging markets index. they will likely start this as long as china makes regulatory progress in making those markets more predictable and transparent. this will be a win-win for everyone, but for more investors to add diversification to the world's second-largest economy. seeing more scrutiny from professional investors in the markets. haidi: embrace the discomfort in that meantime. great to have you with us, and become partner and co-ceo at regional atlantic capital. you can get around up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's addition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can find that dayb . it is available on the mobile in

the bloomberg anywhere app. you can find it -- and customize settings so that you get news on the industries and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: let's talk trucks and take you on a ride. gm took bloomberg on an exclusive right into the company's first ever electric truck that is a silverado. the president mark actually spoke to matt miller in gm's headquarters in detroit michigan. >> what people need to do is get into it and see what an electric truck really can do. this is a dedicated platform. we are bringing our cell plan online right now in ohio. the second one will be in springhill. but the center of gravity is different. this will be on sale in the spring, with our ford truck,

which is what you are probably in today. so, you know, for under $40,000. that is a heck of a deal. and we are going to start off with about 10,000 pounds of telling with it. we will follow it up with 20,000 pounds. and it is just a very capable truck. >> what is demand like right now, not just for the ev business but the american consumer, what is it like? >> we have not seen a lot of demand fall off, even when some of the ups and downs of the economic situation where seen in the united states. but the demand is there. we are selling every single thing that we make. we are selling it deep into the pipeline, so our dealers have really done a good job of being able to show people what the truck or whatever the product is, what they want and when it is built and when it is coming. and that will just get better as the chip piece of this becomes -- begins to level off and be more consistent.

>> are you seeing signs of a light at the end of the tunnel in terms of chips? >> i think so. fourth quarter, a little bit of leveling off. it is nowhere near with the demand is. the demand is going to outstrip what we can actually supply, because the inventory levels are extremely low. it takes a while for us to get the inventory back. >> that means no incentives obviously. in fact, people are paying more than msrp and a lot of situations. how long can it last? >> it will not last forever. there is no way that can last forever, but again, until we begin to fill the pipeline again with some inventory, that is going to be the case, i think. >> what about the electric pickup. the pickup in terms of consumers buying electric cars. i drove the bolt out here and it was surprisingly luxury is for a car that you basically get into for 35,000 after rebates. >> it's even lower than that now, we drop the price on it a few months ago. and we are seeing -- i think you will see in our quarterly results, people are really

interested in the bolt as probably one of the lowest-cost tv that you can get into in the market. and it strategically, that is great for us because our dealers begin to learn how to sell evs and ending the dealer footprint with our customers. customers are looking for the cars. there is supply and we are matching that the best we can right now. it is a very, very compelling vehicle. always has been, particularly with super cruise on the emv. were seeing a lot of demand. >> what about 2023, how does the business look to you as we see rising rates, as we hear concerns about a recession? how do you plan into that? >> we plan>> into it with our cost structure. and so, for five years ago, we relied on our cost structure. we are in good shape, but we can always be better, so we continually take unnecessary cost out of the business from an efficiency standpoint. next year will be better than

this year and that is what we are going to work at. haidi: that is that gm president mark. with bloomberg's matt miller. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines, tesla's worldwide deliveries missed estimates in the third quarter with the company blaming challenges in securing vehicle transportation capacity as it continues to ramp up production. it delivered a record number of cars in the third quarter, but still fell short of the 358,000 the market was expecting. ceo elon musk says tesla is aiming to smooth out deliveries away from the end of quarter rush. crypto exchange coinbase says it's fixed an issue which prevented the company from processing transactions with

♪ >> it is hard to put an opinion on when the next one is going to be. >> this is a dollars story. >> emerging markets looking solid. >> we are watching what's happening in china. >> the yuan is getting close to its bottom. >> the semi conductor crisis at the moment, if you take a look at what is happened to the pound and euro, i'm concerned about italy. >> the pound gave a pretty big alert two countries that wanted to toy with fiscal imprudence. >> i don't think the pound is done correcting. >> the u.k. does not have that much foreign-currency nominated debt. >> the u.k. will come through. >> might even need central banks culmination if this continues.

in the very short-term, it basically looks at the u.s. dollar held out for a little longer. annabelle: guests are speaking about the relentless rise in the dollar and the side effect. we discuss the results of the mliv poll survey. taking a look at the direction of the dollar over the next month, you can see here just under 70% seeing the dollar moving higher over the next four weeks from where it is now. that is because the trends that are supporting that are really unlikely to reverse, because we did see that officials really enforcing that hawkish message last week. then there is turmoil from external factors like what we have seen in increasing tensions in eastern europe and also in the u.k.. let's change it, take a look at the moves reflected in this. you can see we are coming off a bit straight quarter of gains. that is the best run we have had it since 2016 and it is also raising interrelation -- intervention bets 45% are

singapore dated effort five major world powers to weaken the dollar, even though we had heard the u.s. talking down such a movement. also saying more intervention from the boj on the half of the japanese government, although they did go the low intervention. the next big signal were going to get on the impact of the dollar rally is going to come through in earnings results. we've got the big banks you can change over now. two weeks time, nearly 90% of respondents in this survey seeing more impact from the dollar than it did before. we already heard from microsoft, saying that it is going to be affecting the bottom line. in the second quarter, we had the dollar mentioned more than 1000 times by the s&p 500 index. let's watch out for the metric this time around. haidi: bloomberg opinion columnist says liquidity risks need more attention as central banks navigate bouncing

inflation and market instability. we asked whether policymakers now face a choice between recession and financial stability or higher inflation, full on go. >> that is an important addition i think for certain countries. especially those who are importing u.s. monetary policy but do not have the robustness of the u.s.. that is your real issue. and we have got to somehow figure out how to go through this. john, you and i know that we tend to focus on interest rate risk, particularly what the fed is going to do. and on credit risk. economic conditions. etc. we tend to ignore it liquidity risk. and that is something we need to pay a lot more attention to critical >> we have been paying attention to that in the u.k. in a major way. we've seen the bank of england and driven it to intervene into

the gilt market. we saw the boj in the last week have to step into the fx market and support the japanese yen. the ecb before any of this had to set up an instrument to get ready to put a lid on italian yields to raise rates. china has been warning investors that they are willing to step in. we talked about this earlier this week, who is next? who is willing to blink and can we get to that equilibrium, the new equilibrium without central bank intervention every step of the way? >> that is the major question. and these interventions to be clear are temporary. i think they use the word band-aid. these are just and aids. and the global economy is not clearing on its own. if it is allowed to clear on its own, there's going to be a lot of collateral damage. you know my view. when you distort an economy for so long, getting out of the distortion is problematic. and that is what we are learning.

we have no choice but to get out of the distortion. if we don't, inflation is going to be more problematic. i think you and i have been warning people, all of you who are looking for a pivot, be careful what you wish for. this can only be an accident or financial accident. in the journey is a brief journey. david: bloomberg opinion columnist mohammed spoken with jon ferro. intervention in some ways, putting a floor underneath oil prices, big news out of opec. early on, some substantial games. across these energy countries in australia as you can see, one and a half to 2%, s&p is up. the most active contract for more on the opec story plus other reviews, here is vonnie quinn in new york. vonnie: final decision later this week and we will see what does the price of oil itself. opec-plus saying they will

consider cutting output by more than one million barrels a day when they meet this week. a larger than expected reduction would reflect concern that the global economy is slowing in the face of rapidly tightening monetary policy. a one million barrel cut would be the biggest since the pandemic started and again, a final decision will not be made until ministers meet in vienna on wednesday. iran says it is getting closer to recovering millions of dollars locked in foreign accounts due to u.s. emissions. the phones will be released after a u.n. announcement. two iranian americans were released from detention. the biden administration denies a link between the issues. $7 million from oil sales have been blocked due to u.s. sanctions. turkey is reported be rounding up suspects in an alleged stockmarket fraud that led to a plunge in equities last month. its chief prosecutor has begun the investigation on suspicion of organized activity which violates turkey's corporal markets law. -- capital markets law.

two of them remain at large. president biden will visit florida on wednesday to survey the damage left behind by hurricane ian. the massive storm killed at least 47 people in the state. biden says damage is likely to rank among the worst in u.s. history. florida senator marco rubio says many palm beach destinations and tourist towns were completely ravaged by the storm. global news, 24 hours a day. on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: well, the new credit suisse ceo is trying to build investor confidence as he prepares to announce a new turnaround plan at this month. bloomberg's su keenan joins us. this is a bank struggling to recover from a string of scandals and losses. and they do not have much time to come up with this strategy. su: no. just installed in july, the new ceo planning to ease in staff concern while preparing to put

out this strategy for turnaround. at the end of october, october 27. in the second end of week memo, the ceo reassuring staff that the bank has a strong capital base and liquidity position. this as the stock fell to a fresh low at the end of last week. he also told the staff that he plans to send them regular updates until the firm officially comes out with strategic plan. again, that is scheduled for october 27. name the ceo in late july. he has had to deal with market speculation, banker exits and capital downs in very short-term as he tries to turn things around. the turbulent markets are not helping him. in addition to stock falling to a fresh low, you have got the rising decline in the default swaps. last week, the cost of insuring the firm's bonds against the vault rose about 50% to levels not seen it 2009.

credit suisse market cap drop to around 10 billion swiss francs, that is just over 10 billion u.s. dollars, meaning any share of sale would be highly diluted to long-term a bondholders. david: right. so i think i'm about to regret asking this next question, but what are analysts saying at this point? su: kbw analysts are just the latest stew layer on and say this crisis of confidence for credit suisse kind of appears to be similar to the crisis of confidence for deutsche bank some six years ago. strategically, there were very big differences. but that bank also suffered its crisis of confidence while coming out and there being delays and broad questions about what the strategy was at that time. again, there were a lot of differences, just like credit suisse says it is working on possible asset and business sales as part of its strategic plan.

bloomberg has reported that the bank is exploring deals to securitize product trading unit. it is weighing the sale of its wealth management unit. it is considering reviving the first boston brandy, which many analysts say could be a strong move. kbw says with selling off these and perhaps other assets and businesses, they would still likely be left needing about 4 billion in capital to shore up and find the restructuring efforts. so in any event, the ceo doing his best to keep confidence for the stock and for the company and plans to be coming out with a regular update to staff and investors as we count down to october 27. david: su keenan at there on all the latest on credit suisse. just ahead, what time is it? in 10 minutes or so here we should be getting the latest time numbers and the pmi

numbers. we are talking japan. we will be hearing from former chief economist, and why he sees no change in the central banks ultra easy policy. this financial year. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: it is time for japan ahead. they will open up at the top of the next hour and decent losses after we saw the worst market performance for asian stocks in about 14 years. september, u.s. stocks to appear to their third straight quarter of losses since 2000.

we are seeing dollar in trading study but pretty close to the yen affect, really well and truly saving. equity futures a little bit on the back there as we see shares already online, looking pretty flat. we expect to see outperformance when it comes to energy-related names, trading in the japanese session, given that we've seen early stocks in australia up by one and a half percent. outperforming event reports that we expect potentially an upward cut of a million barrels a day from opec-plus. at their meeting. taking a look at other stories we are watching ahead of the tokyo open. boj says there survey is due in the next few minutes and bloomberg intelligence is expecting slightly strong are confidence and revision to investment plans. in september, due out with the next hour, decline for the past five months. and japanese prime minister wants the government to come up with an economic stimulus

package by the end of this month, to mitigate the impact of inflation. for more, let's bring out politics reporter isabel reynolds. what have we heard it so far about this economic package that is being floated? the scale, the target that they are hoping to look at? isabel: so as you mentioned on friday, the prime minister gave instructions to officials to draw this package up to the end of october. the topics he mentioned where things like mitigating inflation , also encouraging pay rises which obviously have been sluggish and japan for decades now. and also, generally, working towards his new capitalism plan, which is aimed at reducing economic disparities in japan. he mentioned in particular, that if nothing is done, for example, about electricity prices, electricity bills could go up by as much as 70%. in the spring of next year. so something clearly needs to be

done on that front, but he has not specified exactly what. but what we do not know as you just mentioned is we do not know the scale of this at all. some analysts we have spoken to in the last few days have expressed concern that it could be too much, if you look at the state of the economy and the moment in japan, despite the huge global risks, the domestic economy is not looking too bad. these analysts feel that the it it should be focused on people that are really suffering from inflation and should not be focused too much, especially looking at the example of the u.k., where it seems to spend too much. and have consequences. david: hopefully not. just looking at what happened with the bond market there. what can or should be expect from this speech? markets yielding the new session of parliament today. isabel: right, well obviously there will be another potential as to whether he gives more data on what he plans for this package. but also more generally, i

think, looking out for example the weakness of the yen, have you expressed his attitude on that or given any hints as to whether japan is likely to intervene in the markets again in the future. and on the less economic front, his popularity has slumped to its lowest level since he took office a year ago in the past couple of months. that is all down to his ruling party's connection with a particular religious group after the death of prime minister shinzo abe a in july. it turned out more than half the members of the ruling party have dealings with this group. the public is watching very closely to see what he can do or be confident to do to try to extricate his party from those names. haidi: bloomberg's politics reporter isabel reynolds. next guest is the former chief

economist at the bank of japan. let's bring in economist kameda. great to have you with us and we appreciate your time. curious to get your thoughts on these packages that have been floated the moment. we do not have any details, but when you take a look at the state of growth in japan at the moment, do you think this package will help? >> japan needs a package for the promotion of those. prime minister emphasizes need to control energy prices. but we must also notice that there will be structural changes in japan's economy, which is necessary. for example, changes to the economy and society. and that government says ok, but we need to raise productivity levels. in a way that can be sustained.

so i think the most important part of the package is promotion of investment and growth. strengthening energy infrastructure, strength during health care systems. the investment. so far the prime minister has not shown complete -- i hope he will more ideas of what he is going to do. haidi: cnn, some breaking news to our viewers. the brazilian election is heading to a runoff. lola and bolsonaro are headed to the runoff election october 30. we knew that if neither candidate managed to get over 50% of the vote that the runoff would happen. we've already seen it that dead heat in the election county, but at last count, 47% for lola, bolsonaro at 44% with about 89% of the votes tallied in brazil.

initially, we saw strength of the bolsonaro base. but the former leader really coming back and closing the gap. it looks like we are now heading on october 30 to the runoff. getting back to the topic at hand, when you take a look at what could be described as a policy misstep in the market reaction in the u.k. from the fiscal stimulus package, what are the lessons that japanese policymakers would want to learn and avoid at this point? >> well, i think there is u.k. and japanese, they needed to care about fiscal strategy. as well. when they plan to spend public spending. david: this is david.

i wanted to get your thoughts, broadly speaking, direct intervention out of the boj when it comes to japanese currency. i wondered as a former chief economist, what you think they are thinking when they look at the case that this is not a sustainable solution? >> well, i think that is temporary. in coming exchange market, we cannot go past the trend of strong dollar and weaker yen and a huge gap in japan. david: i'm going to jump in, we're getting breaking news. the survey is out now, to make it to our viewers here. large manufacturers estimate is 10. i know those numbers alone do not make a lot of sense, but relatively speaking, it is what we are looking at here.

small businesses, negative five. estimates for growth, negative four, not as good as expectations here. we are looking at non-manufactured assets, that's 11. also a big move from 15. were going to bring you back in, looking at business headlines and seeing corporate japan and the cost to them not being there, what is needed? what does the boj need to do and is it under their control? >> i think the japanese economy will recover for this year and next year. also the previously accepted, i think the boj will not change its monetary policy down the road. or its monetary stance, at least before the end of this fiscal year. i think that japan's potential growth is very low based on what i've said.

so i think boj should keep low the domestic market and -- policy change could be in the next fiscal year, after governor changes. and also u.s. monetary tightening ends. haidi: really appreciate your time. kameda executive economist. there is more to come. this is

♪ david: a quick now -- quick check now up stocks, tracking when the japanese markets get up and running. energy shares very much in focus. much to consider of course, cutting output by more than a million barrels a day. keeping an eye on that. change the boards. may be after teslas deliveries, missing forecasts. fashion retailer is set to report. mena move on those numbers. haidi? haidi: let's look at the trading way comes the first hour of trade in what is a holiday kind of week in the market in

australia. a number of things including in sydney are off for a public call it a good a slack session at the moment except for of course games across energies on those opec production cut expectations. we expect to see that. we've seen that drop the course of the day. the rbn said that the rba is exciting 50 basis points. market expectations, likely the last of the big moves from both of the potential banks in this tightening cycle. the market open for japan is next. and we will look ahead to the start of trading in tokyo. this is bloomberg. ♪

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haidi: are counting down to asia's major market opens. just about the worst monthly performance for asian equities in 14 years. we have emerging market uncertainty with the election runoff coming up. david: the oil story putting a floor underneath prices and the dollar coming off the best quarter since 2016. >> five straight quarters of gains for the dollar index. korea shut today for a public holiday. with time changes in australia over the weekend, we have the a sx 200 underway. look at the open of the 10 year yield for treasuries. we could see turbulence in the

bonds market because we do have the key jobs data do and that could be a test of how committed the fed is to raining in inflation. looking at the outlook for japanese trading, we just got a survey out from the doj with the large manufacturer index coming in at eight. the estimate was 10 for september. other manufacturers still at nine, so missing estimates. we are seeing a picture of the outlook that is deteriorating for the large manufacturers. certainly not seeing any sort of substance here to justify a pivot in the near term from the be oj. the minutes of the september policy meeting just out and one pog member saying continued using is appropriate. it is in positive territory, outpacing the losses for the nikkei. you can see brent crude with this report that opec plus is mulling a major production cut,

also reflected in what we are seeing at a sx 200 trading. david: let's get a sense of what investors do with that information. joining us is olivier tessier. we have turned a page. do you think the fourth quarter will be better than the last one? >> it's usually a sacred cow that markets do better after midterm elections. that has been the case since world war ii in the u.s. this year people could find that sacred cows make good hamburgers. we have too much uncertainty around the world to make a forecast. volatility is 10 percent, 15% higher than a few months ago and much higher than a year ago. the probability of losses has increased and if you can't reliably forecast concerns, what's left is to look at the

downside david: apart from inflation -- inflation is already hard enough to quantify. what other things do we have to worry about? >> a lot of things. one is the dislocation between the central bank. the be oj is still using. the fed is still tightening. we have this huge trend for the dollar for the last couple of months so you have to factor that in. that's why global equity managers, the most bearish that we track, have to deal with this additional layer of risk. no one can predict when or how this will end we just had this

big storm in and everybody is breathing a sigh of relief because it did not destroy the plants that would have added to inflation pressure. that's just luck. we can't count on that when we invest money. we have to make forecasts on things we reliably predict. now there is just too few of them. haidi: you talk about the need for a clear signal for markets. what would that need to look like? an end to the war would be a major one. >> obviously that, and it will start with inflation starting to reliably come down. it did a little bit during q2 so people got excited during july and early august but it turned out to be wrong and now we are back to looking for signs that inflation is reliably coming down because that's the only thing stopping the fed from

raising rates. employment numbers friday are going to be important but all we have is macro news and political news until the earnings season starts in a few weeks. we will hear from ceos what impact the environment has on our business. we will have specific information to place and that will help. right now it is too broad, too general, and it rises volatility, a double whammy for investors. haidi: a lot of the guidance from certain companies has not been specific and that has been part of the problem. do you expect that level of specificity going into earnings? depending on how you look at it, are the markets depressed enough in terms of expecting the worst?

>> my advice to ceos would be be as specific as you can. investors are looking for information and if you are going to give generalities -- you need to be as specific as possible. if the news is not good, be upfront and tell them your plan to deal with that. investors are looking for specifics and generalities are not going to win their hearts. david: what does one do if you are sitting on cash? >> cash is starting to have a pulse lately. markets have been rising. there is now an alternative if you have cash to do something with it instead of piling it back into the markets. risk tolerance strategies by more than 20% since the market

became negative or bearish in terms of sentiment. there is still plenty of room for risk-averse strategies to outperform risk tolerant ones. haidi: great to have you with us, olivier d'assier. let's get to bonnie quinn with the first word headlines. vonnie: russia suffered an operational defeat in eastern ukraine. several thousand russian troops withdrew after becoming surrounded by kyiv forces. the town was a key logistics hub for moscow. it comes days after the kremlin announced and annexed the region after holding referendums. u.k. prime minister liz truss says a controversial decision to remove the top tax rate was made by her finance commissioner. she told the bbc her administration should have late

the ground better for the announcement. the chancellor is trying to head off a potential rebellion with government mps going public with their opposition to the plan. >> i stand by the package we announced and i stand by the fact we announced it quickly, because we had to act. i accept we should have late the ground better. vonnie: president biden will visit florida wednesday to soak -- to survey the damage left behind by hurricane ian. the storm killed at least 47 people in the state. biden says it is likely to rank among the worst in u.s. history. marco rubio says many popular beach destinations were ravaged. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. david: eight minutes into the

session in japan. clocks changing in sydney. we are looking at energy stocks. haidi: we are still seeing brent crude trading 3% higher this morning. this is the open for the biggest energy names in japan. they are mulling a major production cut, opec plus. take a look at another sector, defense stocks in japan, shut for a public holiday in korea. we did see north korea firing two missiles over the weekend, so a major week of launches from the north at a time when a lot of attention is on ukraine. looking out the results of the brazil election, we are going to see a runoff between lula and bolsonaro at the end of the month. some say the tight race is surprising for markets. a quick look on asia.

missed deliveries in the last quarter so we are seeing the reaction. haidi: still ahead, we look at the g20. we are looking at the challenges the organization faces post-pandemic. we speak about that and also china. first, brazil's presidential contest is heading for the october 30 runoff vote. it was a surprisingly tight result. more on the market impact, next, live from são paulo. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: brazilian president bolsonaro has fought his way to a runoff election against lula da silva after a surprisingly close election. for more, let's bring in the markets editor who joins us in são paulo. opinion polls have underestimated the support for bolsonaro. >> it was a surprising outcome because bolsonaro had secured a gap for front runner lula. that is likely to be well received by markets because it shows bolsonaro has a chance of winning in the second round. polls have showed lula had the outcome of today's vote. also the fact that lula got a

much narrower lead over bolsonaro may suggest he can lean a bit toward center over the coming three weeks until the next vote. david: you touched on it already, but generally speaking with this uncertainty, how do you think local markets are expected to meander the next few days? >> much depends on what we will adopt going forward. neither of them has given much detail on the economic plans. we don't know who the finance minister will be for lula so i think it will depend on what they say about the plan for the account and for privatization, social spending. this is a very important election for the economy going forward because the next

president will have to balance growing demand for social spending and convince them they will be responsible. haidi: between now and october 30, what should investors be watching for? >> i think the main thing to watch is if lula will give any signal on who will be his finance minister and from bolsonaro's side, whether he will increase his rhetoric or try to gain the boat of the more central candidates that got the minority vote. also lula is expected to lean more toward the center, so any economic policies they mention will be very important. david: our markets editor joining us out of tokyo. japan up .5%, if that relates to

the general sentiment. we are tracking oil closely and brent. have a look at contrasts across the board. coming off highs a little bit, but still substantial gains. opec plus might consider a bigger cut. david is here to talk us through this. what do we know? >> oil rallying, suggested by some delegates that opec plus will meet on wednesday, the first in-person meeting since march 2020, they could decide to cut production by a million barrels a day, far beyond expectations. it would be the biggest cut to production since the pandemic. we are seeing prices respond to that prospect. bad news for the u.s. and other major consumers. they have been working for

months to try to secure more output. a decrease in the production would add to inflationary pressures. haidi: where is china's demand given that we don't know what happens after the party congress , if there is going to be some push to resume broader economic activity? >> good point. that's the piece of the action we are seeing today. china last week talking about new quotas for import, demand potentially strengthening in china. if we combine less output for opec plus, potentially signs of healthier demand in china. that's probably why we are seeing this price action today. a lot still to come, but signals of china around the demand look to be strengthening here. david: on the china story, let's

get you guys an update. lower, lower, lower, and lower, and where things stand. 3.3% is the consensus forecast. we will talk more about this. maybe this is a rebound. you can get a round up of the stories you need on daybreak. go to db go on your terminals. that stoic looking ball. you can get the news on the industries and assets you care about. check it out today. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: welcome back.

let's get you an update on jd.com founder richard leo. reaching a settlement with a minnesota student who accused him of rape. that brings her civil suit to a close. 48 hours before a trial is set to begin. for more, let's bring in stephen engel. do we know the details? stephen: details of the settlement were not released. we do know this student had sought upwards of $50,000 u.s. in a civil lawsuit because the criminal proceeding never realized because prosecutors said there was not enough evidence. the accuser did do a civil lawsuit. within 48 hours of the trial, the settlement was reached. richard liu has long said this

was a consensual encounter and a joint statement put out by both parties said there was a misunderstanding. we don't know the extent of the payment. she was seeking $50,000 plus other damages. we are only speculating on the amount. this removes a bit of overhang on jd.com. there have been some management shakeups. he is no longer the ceo. jd.com perhaps can move on and tackle their bigger issues, the regulatory environment and slowing chinese economy. haidi: they are big issues. once the outlook for the company? stephen: battling the regulatory environment. they have divested stakes in different companies. even richard liu has divested his equity stakes in a couple of companies tied to jd.com, part

of the trend of these high-profile founders of the tech companies, essentially removing themselves from the day-to-day operation in the corporate world. he will stay on as chairman. this lawsuit was a distraction and in the first three months after the 2018 lawsuit was filed, the stock lost about $10 billion of market input at the time, about a third of its market cap. there was an initial shock to the system for jd.com, but we saw in 2018 he brought in someone who turned things around with the company and the stock rose. now it is on the down track, down 27% year to date because of the slowing chinese economy and the regulatory overhang. haidi: chief north asian

correspondent stephen engel with the latest. let's get you a look at some of the other stories we are watching, including general motors in a conversation with bloomberg, taking us on a ride into the company's all electric truck. there president spoke with us at gm headquarters in detroit, michigan. >> what people need to do is get into it and see what an electric truck can do. this is a dedicated platform. we are just bringing ourselves an online in ohio and the second one will be in springhill. the center of gravity is different. this will be on sale in the spring. for under $40,000, a heck of a deal. we start off with about 10,000 pounds of towing, follow it up

with 20,000 pounds. it's a very capable truck. >> what's demand like right now, not just for the eb business, for the american consumer? >> we have not seen a lot of demand fall off with the ups and downs of the economic season. we are selling every single thing we make, selling it deep into the pipeline. dealers have done a good job of being able to show people whatever the product is that they want and when it is built and when it is coming and that will get better as the chip business begins to level off and be more consistent. >> are you seeing any signs of that, a light at the end of the tunnel? >> i think so, we are seeing fourth-quarter a little leveling off. demand is still going to outstrip supply because

inventory levels are still low so it takes a while to get the inventory back. >> that means no incentives. people are paying more than msrp in a lot of situations. >> there is no way that can last forever. until we fill the pipeline with inventory, that's going to be the case? >> what about the electric pick up in terms of consumers buying electric cars? i drove the bolt and it was surprisingly luxurious for a car you get into for $35,000 after rebates. >> we dropped the price a few months ago. i think you will see in our quarterly results that people are interested in the volt as the lowest cost eb you can get into in the market. strategically that's great because our dealers learn how to

sell ev's and our customers are looking for the cars. there is supply and we are matching that the best we can. it's a very compelling vehicle, always has been, and we are seeing a lot of demand. >> what about 2023? how does the business look to you as we see rising rates, concerns about a recession? >> we play into it with our cost structure. we are in good shape but we can always do better and we will continue to take unnecessary costs out of the business from an efficiency standpoint and next year will be better than this year. david: that was the gm boss with matt miller. we are coming off the dollars best quarter since 2016.

a little bit of dollar weakness against some. that is part of the conversation certainly. haidi: take a look at futures in europe opening for the week. we are seeing a climb into the end of the week but still at the moment looking pretty tepid. msci europe broadly trading higher but certainly a bearish look when you take a look at futures trading in germany. we had late last week the lowest close for the millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... add a line to your existing plan,

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haidi: -- vonnie: you are watching daybreak asia.

vote counting is underway in brazil with lula da silva narrowly trailing conservative incumbent bolsonaro. bolsonaro is campaigning on a platform of privatization and deregulation but has seen his popularity sank after the pandemic. if neither candidate wins 50%, a runoff will be held at the end of the month. the u.s. is said to be willing to pay $1.5 billion a month to ukraine to fight russia's invasion. congress is set to demand that allies share the cost burden for long-term aid. the international monetary fund previously calculated ukraine needs $5 billion every month to keep its economy going. iran says it is getting closer to recovering billions of dollars in foreign accounts used in u.s. sanctions. state media is saying the funds will be released after an

announcement that two iranian americans were released from detention. iran says it has about $7 billion from oil sales blocked due to u.s. sanctions. the indonesian president has ordered a full inquiry into a fan stampede that killed at least 131 people. police are facing criticism for firing tear gas, which caused people to panic and rush to narrow exits. the governing body prohibits police or security from carrying or using crowd control gas or firearms. billionaire jd.com founder richard liu has reached a settlement with the minnesota student who accused him of rape. it brings her civil suit to a close 48 hours before a trial was set to begin. details were not released. she had been seeking at least $50,000 in damages and additional punitive damages.

global news 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: let's look at the asian pmi ratings just crossing the bloomberg. it is mixed portions -- mixed fortunes. take a look at these numbers out of thailand, taiwan, vietnam, japan. we are seeing a moderation. we are also seeing vietnam seeing a little bit of a pullback, 52.5 as well. we are seeing manufacturing from vietnam seeing quite a bit of strength and that has been one of the standouts when it comes to the emerging markets performing in asia. david: market wide it is just

about the only one. the rest are in single digits. indonesia standing out. we are speaking with morgan stanley a couple weeks ago and even they were surprised. you look at a country like indonesia, even india, the environment where the fed is raising rates. not sure what to do now. why don't we go to annabelle? annabelle: it is interesting when you look at the terminal chart. you can see this divide we have between north and southeast asian exporters. these exports from indonesia still holding up in china. this region really dominated more by southeast asia, dominated more by the essential goods like palm oil, refined

petroleum products. you are looking more at things like chipmaking equipment, automakers. in terms of across the board at markets, there is one major thing we are watching, the energy sector. we are off the highs of the day but still up around 2.7%. in terms of trading, stock index in the red. energy is still sitting flat but it has been in more positive territory. this is all about the deteriorating public outlook. that's my opec plus is considering a major production cut, the biggest we have seen since the start of the pandemic. that came through in the economic data from japan as well. haidi: let's talk more about the survey on large manufacturers. we are not going to get very strong sentiment at the start of

trading for the week. we have seen it worsening for three straight quarters, the yen tumbling along with the global economic outlook. let's bring in the bureau chief. when people look at the affects expectations, they draw breath because they are so far from the reality at the moment. we are looking at levels around 125 built into the survey expectations. closer to 145 if you want to look at the chart that shows dollar-yen expectations versus reality. the average exchange rate at 125.71 for the full year 2022. we are a bit far off from that, sophie. sophie: we are a bit far off, the manufacturers pmi ticking down.

the measure of confidence was down among manufacturing. need other-yen outlook was strengthened a little bit from three months ago when sentiment was down as well with manufacturers worried about the lockdowns in china and impact on the supply chains. since that time, the dollar-yen has gone a week direction and we are seeing an acknowledgment of reality with the outlook around 125. close to 145 the last time we got around that area. we had actual intervention in japan. whether intervention is in the cards again at the moment, everybody is watching that closely. a little bit of brightness there with manufacturers getting more optimistic about their outlook, looking forward to the reopening of japan's borders this month.

that weak yen and its relationship with the japanese economy is a double-edged sword. a week yen will help boost profits and it has done so but most japanese people don't work in those companies. they work in small to medium sectors. food prices, energy prices are exacerbating increases. inflation in japan, the likes of which we have not seen in a generation. while it pales in comparison to japan's peers, inflation is the big concern for the government. the prime minister has given his government until the end of october to put together a package that will help offset the impact of inflation. the bank of japan governor reinforces their belief it is not right to turn down the taps following the other central banks down the world in

tightening because conditions are not good enough to warrant that. david: i want to touch on what you just mentioned, the economic package the prime minister is putting forward. what stands out to you? sophie: we have had mentioned there will be something specific to try to mitigate sharp fluctuations in energy costs. there has been a lot of talk about the u.k. policy in japan. we are also seeing energy being one of the big areas when inflation is affecting ordinary people. the announcement so far, the government spokesperson comments last friday have been a bit sparse but we are going to see something specific to help out with energy prices and try to keep those as stable as they can. details are not forthcoming but

that package should be put together by the end of october. annabelle: -- david: thank you, sophie jackman, our tokyo deputy bureau chief. coming up, alicia garcia herrera will be talking about the increasing risks of the g20 meeting. we will talk about the markets and geopolitics. this is bloomberg. ♪ and it's easier than ever to■ get your projects done right. inside, outside, big or small, angi helps you find the right so for whatever you need done. with angi, you can connect with and see ratings and reviews. just search or scroll to see upf on hundreds of projects. and when you book and pay throug you're covered by our happiness it's easy to make your home an a

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david: we are kicking off the first in a series of issues facing the g20. facing unprecedented challenges. you have an energy crisis. if we have not depressed you enough, let's bring in emma, our chief asia economics correspondent. spin that positively for us. >> we know the story that mortgage rates are growing up -- are going up.

now it is starting to get deeper. people worried about shades of 2007. the big scare in the u.k. last week made everyone think, where else is there fragility in the global financial system? we have the dollar impact. the strong dollar continuing to tear through the economy. cheaper currency. when you put together the rising mortgage costs and are worried by fragility of the system, it all adds up to a shaky end of the year for the global economy and people are warning next year won't be much better. haidi: is there any good news? is there any upside risk? enda: i have not come here to give you good news. a pivot could come when and if we reach a point where inflation starts -- it is starting to ease, underlying core inflation.

central banks continue to say their number one focus is jacking up the mortgage until the broader demand comes down. that story has a little bit to play out yet. there could be a turning point later in the year when we start to see global demands hitting bottom as well. at the moment the indications are that this cycle has not seen the bottom. no one is seeing a turning point for global demand or global geopolitical risks. all this is expected to run through something that kicked off a few weeks ago at the imf meetings. haidi: bloomberg's chief asia economics correspondent delivering the bad news calmly. as we head towards the g20, much like the sentiments and

atmosphere at the united nations, it is very depressing. how much worse can it get? is there any possibility g20 countries can come together to get things back on track? >> i realize you are looking for good news. i can only think of one. inflation seems to be resistant to anything we throw on it. it will come down. the minute central banks realize , they will support. g20 is not only about realizing it can come too fast. that would help everybody else. what the fed is doing or achieving is a strong dollar that helps reduce inflation to

some degree, exporting them everywhere else through weak currencies. we have seen that with inflation 10% in september. at some point central banks -- now there are some options for the g20 which were not there at the beginning of the pandemic. we need to think about which position is worse. all of the unknown of the pandemic. the known is concerted intervention. can the fed agreed to come up with something to protect others? not yet because inflationary pressures are high, but may be by november if we see strong

deceleration this might happen. that will be the discussion of the g20. haidi: let me throw out this chart of china, which is not good news when you look at how far growth expectations and forecasts have come down. it looks like something that has fallen down the stairs. we have gone from a north of 5% forecast to 3%. there is still the upside hope that china might come around and end up playing the full growth affect if policy changes their? >> absolutely. china has a great opportunity because we are back to march 2020, where china's mobility increased very rapidly from the

end of january-february. this time around, why the u.s. and eurozone, the u.k., basically the whole west g7 reality. this is just cyclical but it is a nice cyclical move with what is happening in the world. think about february, march, april after what happened this year. china needs to take this opportunity. the congress in october is not the end of the party. we need to wait to march to see the whole transition and that

might delay china taking over of the cyclical growth given what is happening with the rest. david: you touched on one part of the key assumption in china, covid policy. what about the other property? >> for us the magic number is if china lifts all restrictions by march. that 5% growth still is embedded. we just can't accommodate five. five is actually not so high because even the huge base effect -- it is basically 2020, 2021, you can see that repeated.

so we should see eight. no, we are going to see five. we need policy support, which we already have, doing whatever it takes, literally. they are lowering the down payment, taking state owned developers private. we need all of that to continue. it's not good for the long run. haidi: always great to chat with you. we are going to have more conversations, maybe some a bit more uplifting on the challenges the group faces. that's every monday at 8:40 a.m. in hong kong on bloomberg television. david: the hang seng china enterprises index had a bad

september, below 6000, the worst performing among the major markets. details ahead as the markets open in 40 minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪

david: one of the worst

performing benchmarks globally with the hang seng china enterprises index. 14% drop, below 6000 right now. it's also quite cheap but cheap is not a catalyst. we kind of know why but we also don't know why. why was it such a bad performer last month? >> you know why, right? it's basically covid zero, property slump, and all the geopolitical tensions you guys have been reporting on. if you look at the index performance versus the world, it's down 14% and the global index is only down 10%. the evaluation is 0.6 times, the

lowest ever. that compares to the global index. you can see the extreme pessimism for hong kong listed chinese shares. it is a good gauge for global sentiment. it is also listed in hong kong, an open capital market. people can come in and out anytime they want, versus mainland where capital control is in place. all these stocks are listed. 10 -- tencent is dubbed the property of china. haidi: what are the catalyst indexes we will be watching for now? >> one is the golden week holiday or these stats on consumer spending would be a good indicator for what's to come. because expectations are so low going into this holiday, any

positive data would be good for the stock market. the second thing is the 20th party congress. all eyes are on one thing with the investors we speak to, the covid zero relaxation. if there is anything on that front, that would be a huge boost for sentiment. haidi: stocks we are watching ahead of the markets opening, we have energy related shares in focus. opec plus is considering cutting a million barrels a day. also watching supplies in taiwan. they could move up. we have tesla's worldwide deliveries missing forecasts in the third quarter. also watching brazil and the impact potentially on the emerging market complex as well. david: the etf trade in japan is

up a little. we are headed toward a runoff vote, so no conclusion yet on that. european futures down substantially. those futures also coming down substantially. in a couple minutes we should be getting more indications. haidi: our markets coverage continues. we look at the start of trading in hong kong. bloomberg markets: china open next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yvonne: