dani: this is "bloomberg

daybreak: europe," i am dani burger alongside manus cranny in london and these are the stories that set your agenda. manus: prime minister liz truss looks to stem a party rebellion after the tax cut debacle. we are live for the tory party conference. crude prices jump as opec wages -- waiters cutting -- wagers cutting output. the fourth-quarter kicks in amid ongoing concern about stuttering economic growth. you go away for two weeks, you arrive in london, what have you done? broken everything. the gilt market, the currency. dani: i tried to steer the ship as much as i could. manus: where are we in the

evolution of a cross asset are shock? are we done with liquidating and conserving our power in markets? dani: it starts with liquidity and skills into equities, at least that from bank of america. bank of america out over the weekend morning that we could -- that we are indeed having the issue where the risks are spilling over. there are now mass liquidations. a really ugly day on friday for wall street, the third straight quarter of losses, the worst since the gse. euro stoxx, ftse futures, cash markets closed in the green, they have to play catch up. s&p tumbled again. mastec futures worse off at the moment. tesla over the weekend, their deliveries down in the third quarter. decently risk off inequities. manus: the biggest shock i saw

was mikey down 20% at one juncture on friday. -- was nike down 20% at one juncture on friday. 8% up -- we are 8% up than last monday on sterling. the question is will there be a second assault on sterling as liz truss seems to back track ongoing the full mile on the tax cut for the upper end. will the market again attack sterling because a confidence void and void of belief in terms of strategy. crude up this morning by nearly 3%. as we are all going to vienna, there could be a cut of a million barrels. mbs has said -- where are we on the rate cycle, 5%, 4%, 5% in the u.s..

the fed putting u.s. first we broke 145, will it take more than unilateral intervention to stop the rot in dollar-yen. dani: i think the part about what the fed is doing, continuing to hike despite fears of contagion. i came in and you said to me, sometimes this fear of risk gets elevated. it is bad right now, i know you're looking at the cross as a contagion index. manus: dollar funding in 2007, we are not as stressed. we have cross asset vol. this is when we were in the pandemic. taking you back to a tenuous time, this was a liquidity crunch, counterparty risk in 2007. we are nowhere near there is what state street said to me. but dollar construction.

where are the dark parts of the concern in the world across assets today? dani: someone essentially said they are monitoring it and it is not bad yet, perhaps indicative of that chart. the world is monitoring it. let's get to our top stories. as he burden is at the tory party conference in birmingham -- lizzy burden is at the tory party conference in birmingham. manus: we have ahead of that, prime minister liz truss spent the weekend defending the government's economic policies after the mini budget triggered a market rout. >> i stand by the package we announced and by the fact that we announced it quickly because we had to act. i do accept we should have laid

the ground better. manus: we are on the ground in birmingham. lizzy, the question is, did that interview yesterday set up enough to quell the mounting anger against her and her chancellor? lizzy: liz truss is trying to stay defiant but you can see the crack's in her resolve starting to show. it is mentioned that she through the chancellor under the bus. she said the groundwork had not been laid properly for these fiscal announcements. behind the scenes here, the chancellor is desperately trying to drum up support from tory mps , trying to convince them that the taxcutting plans will grow the economy. we also heard from a former cabinet minister yesterday, he said these plans were not a display of tory values. this was an interview with the

bbc. take a listen. >> you have additional billions of pounds, to have as your principal decision the taxes cut for the wealthiest, that displays the wrong values. lizzy: michael gove has become the de facto leader for the rebels in the party that could potentially vote against these measures. there was not meant to be a vote until march but the opposition labour party is ahead in the polls and could try to force a vote earlier in the coming weeks. if the government loses that, it will be hugely embarrassing and the labour party could push for a general election. dani: we continue to see the market and political fallout to the plan. where can liz truss go in terms of economic policy? lizzy: we saw the chancellor and prime minister unusually, going

to the office of responsibility on friday despite that they had sidelined the fiscal watchdog. the settlement of these plans is not expected until november 23, that what they could do to calm markets, this is what investors are backing for, to bring the forecast forward. the other point is that the opr -- obr may not agree. they may reckon that they need to cut spending to balance the books. they would have to cut spending by more than they had in the austerity years. it would be very painful, especially in a cost-of-living crisis. liz truss said in her campaign there would be no return to austerity. again, the labour party would seize on that. dani: ok, thank you very much. lizzy at the tory party

conference. opec is set to discuss an output cut of over one million barrels per day what it meets later this week. we are joined by elizabeth low. oil jumping about 2.5% today on the back of this possible cut. the market is reacting, but how likely is it? elizabeth: opec-plus has signaled he will cut barrels at the upcoming meeting. more than double of what banks such as jp morgan had estimated they need to cut to stabilize oil. stepping back a little bit, will prices have been weakening the past quarter after hitting 135 dollars a barrel in june. that is coming off good demand in china and the u.s.

opec-plus has been under pressure to stabilize oil prices. it is also important to note that if they make such a move, it is ahead of a closely watched winter for oil this year. the market is set to look very different from how it did in q3. russian sanctions are set to kick in. it is still very volatile. other factors, the u.s. drawdown coming to an end. china has announced it is going to significantly limit fuel exports. it will be pretty bullish for crude markets. all of these are bullish factors for oil, and outsized response on supply this week from opec-plus could push all markets

into a shortage, especially at year end. manus: well, the secretary-general, when we caught up with him in vienna a couple of weeks ago, talked about the buffers in the market. thank you, elizabeth low. go big or go home, that's probably what we will get in vienna. credit suisse, the air is thick with angst. look at this. 15% in a week and shares in the stock at a record low. this is the challenger for the new ceo. he has 100 days to deliver a message. stay with me, trust me, of got my hands on the wheel. dani: this is the thing, we started this morning saying we are concerned about a liquidity crisis, not a counterparty crisis yet, but it is something credit suisse has had to go to investors and calm them. saying our positions and

liquidity is sound. at what point does the crisis morph into something different? where it is not just about liquidity. you need to temper with how bad things are with the swaps. manus: we are fine, we are robust, ok. we are fine, we are grand, leverage, prime brokerage. our management systems are robust. if i was working at credit suisse, what are the options? i asked the chairman, what are you going to do for your staff that are long of options to stay here? trust me? you need more than trust. dani: again, it is about confidence, but i go back to the point, the financial position is different than other crises. their key capital ratio, deutsche bank was worse. manus: if you go from 55 basis

points, 250 basis points, that is not saying a bank is going to default, but what that is saying is there is a warning shot out there and you need to understand is this where you want to have all your exposure? dani: let's switch gears a bit because can cheat is currently speeding. talking about to use a weak yen. japan is set to ease research and's. manus: do you think inbound tourism is going to save dollar-yen? dani: i'd love to go to japan but that is beside the point. manus: that is the trait apparently. dani: they will seek benefits from a week yen and return those to the public. manus: they spent $20 billion so

far to defend the yen and it takes more than unilateral action to actually shift the action. coming up, the relentless rally, government interventions, several central bank interventions could be on the way. more on the markets. dani: plus, europe's energy battle with russia escalates further. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> it is hard to put a pin in it. >> this is a dollar story. >> markets are looking relatively solid. >> watching what is happening in china. >> the yuan getting close to his bottom. >> a semi-crisis at the moment

if you look at the euro. >> the pound is a big alert to countries that want to toy with our -- toy with fiscal imprudence. >> i am confident the u.k. will come through this. >> eventually might need some central-bank coordination if this continues, and very short-term, it looks like the u.s. dollar has further to go. dani: some of our guests discussing the next currency crisis as the u.s. dollars will in this rally continues. this morning we also saw the yen weakened past $145, liquidity fears of into markets as the dash to dollars spills into funding stress as opposed to other currencies stressed. manus: ok, intervention is the question, windows that come?

we are looking at the cost of dollars and constriction. there is dollar-yen. let's get our guest in. good to have you with us. let's start with a topline line, we broke 145 on dollar-yen, it will take a lot more than 25 bucks to stop the yen, you reckon? >> yes. fundamentally we are at 135, 140, 145 on dollar-yen. until you address the root source of the problem, there's no point in intervention. the bank is clever that in how it's acute this -- it executes this by order, it did it in a stealthy way, to remove the possible speculation side of it because all of a sudden you had the kickback. the problem is, as soon as fundamentals come back into play, it will drain the banks. dani: the problem is the strong dollar.

until that is fixed, what will happen? . simon: i think they are laying out speed bumps, i don't think they have the intention of completely reversing course. it is just stopping the ease, a bit more synonymous with crisis, and religious low markets down -- and really just slow markets down. manus: it doesn't stop the truck, it just slows it down. ok. we might get signs of concern intervention, that is a new and of risk. one thing we looked at this morning is constriction in dollar front. nowhere near 2007, so just to be very clear. we are not going to get a radical call. what we are looking at is the risk. nowhere near 2007. where does the liquidity jolt and turn into something more

manifest that you worry from an ethics perspective? simon: we start to see central banks discussing it aggressively and -- manus: liquidity. simon: exactly. dani: brainard said in a speech on friday that financial vulnerabilities are a consideration for the fed. simon: i think it is a consideration, the gilt market last week. volatility stays higher and all of a sudden we see another three or 4% jump in the dollar, i think that's when people start to get twitchy. manus: twitchy. dani: i am a bit twitchy. manus: it is better for me, i am paid in dollars. we are back at levels before the

catastrophic budget communication. we have a confidence deficit, a clarity deficit and credibility deficit. do you think they attack the pound again even though it is up 8% from last week? simon: i think so, it is shaky ground. this is more of a technical reason for a rebound here, flows and adjustments and portfolios. i don't necessarily think it is all of a sudden that the storm is past and we are in clearwater. more political noise in the background and all of a sudden, a ramp-up in european gas prices. it only just extends the government liability. dani: what is your value of the pound right now? simon: bearing in mind the government could stretch out over the winter, to a piece of string. manus: is it going to break parity, where does it go?

what does a credible attack on sterling look like? simon: i think in the short term 105. a lot of people would look at the all-time lows. when you put series volume through at those prices, we will talk about a low. 105 is the level market is looking at saying this is a political barrier. dani: what is a risk of a boe that disappoints in terms of a market rising over 120 basis points worth of hikes from the boe? how realistic is that and what happens to the market if they don't go through with that? simon: i think 100 basis points is the light side of things. i think the bank needs to create a backstop especially if there isn't anything from the government. manus: the bank of england have told us that it is a temporary reprieve in terms of the intervention. they told us it is temporary.

does monetary policy allow for the credit void to be filled? simon: it has to because one of the pillars of u.k. investment is confidence. everything would be moved by the same lever, government policy. they can have a credible start by rubbing of interest rates. you look at what the government policies are, inflation rates. the bank of england will have to come out if we roll back. governor bailey said the reason they went back to 50 basis points is they don't want it to be passed onto the consumer. when the consumer has a better balance sheet, they can do this. dani: but they aren't able to do it because of all the floating mortgages and the u.k.. hiking by 100 basis points would be extreme for folks and mortgage payments. simon: yes, but it is the lesser of two evils at this point. do you do that or have a perpetual inflation problem you

have to catch up on over the next five years? we think the bank is going to go big not for long. we are not talking federal reserve that wants to keep interest rates restricted for 12 months. we think do it quickly, take the short pain, and then stabilize. manus: how does the dollar translate the hike? a very different context you are putting forward. talking about a much longer and enduring holding pattern from the fed. if you're looking for a rollover when it is a rollover when it is rollover on top of the fed, does the dollar start to price that in? i know we ask it every time you are here, but should i prepare for and exhaustion in dollar? simon: every time you ask i say not quite yet. we are looking at at least q2 next year. dani: simon, thank you for joining us. i am sure we will ask you back many times. coming up, europe's energy

battle with russia escalates further. gas supply halted to italy. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: monday morning, let's get the first word news. >> good morning. bolsonaro is headed for a runoff election in brazil. they fell short of the simple majority needed for victory. the outcome puts the former president within reach of overturning latin america's biggest economy. the election will be the 30th of october.

a controversial decision to remove the top tax rate was made by her chancellor, according to liz truss. bloomberg has heard the chancellor has met with mp's to head off a rebellion. in an interview, liz truss said they should've laid better groundwork. russia with another defeat in eastern ukraine, casting doubt on its plans for annexation. several thousand troops withdrew over the weekend after coming surrounded by forces. the town was a key logistic hub for moscow. this is bloomberg. hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. being a veteran, the transition from the military into civilian life causes a lot of stress. i ate a lot for stress. golo and release has helped me with managing that stress and allowing me to focus on losing weight. for anyone struggling with weight and stress-related weight gain,

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manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am manus

cranny in dubai with dani burger in london. dani: prime minister liz truss and her chancellor look to stem a party rebellion over a tax-cut debacle. we are live at the conservative party conference. crude prices jump as opec loves weighs cutting output over more than one barrels per day. stocks struggle for traction and the fourth quarter caps off amid ongoing concern over stuttering economic growth. manus, back from the beach, back from mika knows -- mikkonos. manus: no doubt about it, we have confidence voids in governance and in terms of what is going on in terms of dollar funding, equities, credibility of the u.k. government, etc., all coming into play.

this look at some of these assets. we broke to the 145 level on dollar-yen. you have commentary coming through from not just the government in japan but also information that we could be setting up for a little bit more intervention. what more can i do? they did 20 billion. nymex up nearly 3%. we are going to head to vienna, we will be on the road. mbs has asked us to go to vienna. dani: we saw it was really ugly on friday for u.s. equities, european stocks ended the day higher by more than 1%. ftse futures down. nasdaq futures underperforming considering that tesla missed on third-quarter deliveries. the real risk as america lays out losses, they are so substantial we might see some forced liquidation.

manus: there you go, the bar shock continues. governments and companies around the world are facing unprecedented cost and financing bonds. a burden that is set to deepen. the crux in the debt markets expose the vulnerabilities -- the crack's in the debt markets expose the vulnerabilities. garfield, market turmoil. liquidity is drying up. who is exposed? garfield: everybody is exposed. indirectly and directly. we talk about the idea that what central banks do takes time to work into the economy. this is a classic example. you have the steepest rate hike in a generation, driving secondary market yields when

companies look to refinance or borrow, they are suddenly facing significantly higher costs. of course it doesn't come all at once. it is a trillion dollar hit by our calculation because of the increase. the existing crude bond and -- that is the gap that is going to close. dani: didn't you have -- i want to get into the root of the issue. you have companies and governments that faced rolling over existing debt or issuing new bonds. what is the debate look like for that? garfield: it is a tough one because on the one hand, you don't want to rush into it. on the other hand, they have

fallen by the wayside. do you rush in or stay away? how does that play out? maybe you decide to trim your spending and rely on cash. that's why you will see particularly vulnerable issuers. the dollar is so expensive. finally, companies that have got high leverage, and perhaps there are too many of them because we got a lot of money pumped into the system. but anything that applies to leverage when it comes to companies, those are the ones that are the most vulnerable. they are not going to have a choice about whether or not they rollover. they are not going to be able to afford to do anything else. the question is if they can afford to even do that. manus: in 2007, we were obsessed

with counterparty risk, and as liquidity drained away, we looked at the balance sheets of banks and we looked at the exposure and leverage. what do i need to look for in 2022 in terms of borrowers with weakest links? are we beyond banks? garfield: the banks are likely part of the problem. the cross currency basis swaps blowout last week because the three-month started to come up in the year-end funding window. that will be tough this year. partly because of regulations that have been brought in to try and prevent what happened in 2007 and 2008. banks will try to hold onto liquid assets and collateral. that will make it hard for everybody else to get it. in a lot of ways, it is second-tier.

you also look at potentially some banks might -- especially investment banks. they might find their costs go up. dani: garfield, thank you very much. let's continue the conversation. joining us is gordon channon. thank you for joining us. i want to start on the idea that we see liquidity risk, swap spreads blowing out. liquidity and treasury, a lot of those measures at new highs for the year. at what point does this morph from a liquidity risk into a credit risk? gordon: whenever you have leverage, we have leverage everywhere, it is essential liquidity is monitored and kept

under control. for me, there is a lot of deja vu with 2007. what is different this time is the liquidity dreams we have had -- liquidity drains we've had have been more localized. earlier this year in the tech sector. we had it in the gilt market. because it has been localized, other players -- have to be attracted by higher returns but there is money deployed. the key is keeping it localized rather than it being a systemic issue. manus: this coming from state street, it is not too thousand seven, we are not as worried about that at the moment. what is it here in the u.k. that can blow into a global systemic issue, or is it not going to happen? the gilt market broke. it should be a liquid market. gordon: you had a perfect storm. the central bank, and a

chancellor that is a maverick, and it resulted in the gilt market breaking. when you have volatility, you have the expected outcomes. we would have thought that risinggilt was good for that -- rising gilt was good for that. i think the key is that now that we have -- in the system, you have more dispersion, so you have some losers and people have been aware it is possible to lose. his premiums go up everywhere. dani: i came in this morning and manus was quoting roosevelt, there are known unknowns. do you feel there is more of this that needs to be washed out of the system after years of going up the risk curve? gordon: i am in favor of creative disruption. i would rather the central banks

don't keep kicking the can down the road. ultimately the assets for liability -- it comes back to liquidity. they started the year with collateral to cover 150 to 200 basis points. but then we had 200 by june this year and they hadn't be able to reload that liquidity. it's having the first 100 or 200 basis points move doesn't make it less likely, in fact it makes it more likely you have another hundred. manus: blackrock moves to unwind trades. in other words, they do what we all did in 2007. close positions because you don't have the margins, pull the ripcord. blackrock and others. do they have a sponsor ability in the convulsion in the market

last week? gordon: your previous commentator was mentioning the legislation was put in place from the financial crisis has made financial institutions and banks stronger, but it makes them faster to pull the cord. manus: do you think that bar shock last week is done? gordon: i think in that part of the market in this done but there will be unknowable consequences. dani: the known unknowns come back. gordon, fed above 5%? can we get there without breaking something? gordon: you've got to break a small amount of things. restaurants can exist because some go bust. manus: two generations have not seen a mortgage at that price. gordon: it will be horrible.

20% fall in house prices in the u.k., there will be political fallout. dani: that's not what we wanted to hear, gordon. [laughter] is the fed and boe not going to back off if this is the consequence? politically ken lay stomach something like that? -- politically can they stomach something like that? gordon: i think the fed is different, it is easier to be brave. i am convinced the fed, the language used in the last q&a, it was apologetic in advance, talking about pain communities will feel, that says i will do this. the bank of england, i think andrew bailey is a far less secure. he did not like the media criticism he saw early in his tenure when he was inconsistent in his messaging and we his --

and he is under increasing pressure. there was the house of lords qe inquiry. liz truss throwing around the idea of a change. he cannot be confident about his independence. manus: we are going to punch this out to you. dani: the u.k. government expected to reverse scrapping of the 45% tax rate, this coming from the bbc, the immediate reaction in sterling, up this morning. manus: smart move. a little bit of fiscal parity. gordon: the market wants it and the government listened. dani: in the world where we have again 45% tax rate that is gone, the market wants it, but it is the risk on. manus: it is the borrowing, isn't that it? gordon: it was an unfunded fiscal expansion and we weren't given enough details.

markets are now convincing government that communication and feedback is key, and they will start taking it more seriously that they are not unconstrained in the ability to borrow. they have to listen to us. dani: your message is that the bond vigilantes are back. manus: he's got a bloomberg. dani: why else will really be talking to him -- why else would we be talking to him? [laughter] no, he is brilliant. does this not reduce credibility where you have a situation that markets are dictating policy? gordon: markets dictate policy because markets are the weighted opinion of where we are going. you have to trust that more i think than a politician that wants to be reelected in a few years. manus: that is on the assumption that the chancellor and current prime minister endure beyond the

end of the week in birmingham. gordon, thank you. what does your reprieve in the pound look like? let me show you the pound, from hell and back. looks like a backtrack on the 45% tax rate for high earners, off the table. 11185. confidence void, clarity void, credibility void. the three c's that imploded the pound, destructed the gilt market and pilloried the tory party. it might be the beginning of a backtrack. dani: so much bad was priced into sterling it was primed to pop. it something we look at with intervention and policy changes. is this temporary? it is sending the entirety of fx volatility higher in these markets. manus: options markets, 22%

probability of low parity by christmas. jordan rochester, role appear sleeves, this could be -- roll up your sleeves, this could be the glorious moment to attack the pound. while markets -- opec-plus considers by cutting output by more than a barrel -- a million barrels per day at their meeting in vienna. we will have the story. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: welcome back to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." manus, no shortage of u.k. stories to keep you busy. bbc reporting the government is considering scrapping that 45% -- or rather in rid of the scrapping of the 45% tax rate

and sterling back at 112. manus: this is the heart of the michael gove issue, a veteran of the tory party, saying this is not possible. we are up from the lows last monday, but for five days in a row, up 4.79%. getting more expensive, i've got to leave london. suddenly it is no longer cheap. another market that has my attention is crude oil. 174 is where we are. opec-plus is considering cutting over one million barrels per day. on the european energy battlefront. paul wallace is in dubai. why such a sudden call for an in

person meeting? paul: that is a big question and they did ask all of a sudden. it seemed the group decided to call for an in person meeting on friday night. they weren't expected together in person until at least the end of the year. we think this is because they are planning quite a big cut, but to do that it is easier to be in the room together, seeing each other face-to-face rather than meeting of resume or something like that. -- meeting over zoom or something like that. the last few opec-plus meetings have been extremely short affairs. most of them have been done in less than 15 minutes. this one will be a bit more complicated by the looks of it. dani: we have wti falling 25% in the third quarter, moving higher today, more than 2%, how big of

a cut will it take for opec-plus to stabilize these prices? paul: given how bearish so many traders are, especially macro traders, about the outlook for the local economy and china reopening and that sort of thing, you would think it would take a big cut we are talking -- a big cut. we are talking more than a million barrels per day plus to move markets substantially. the other thing the group has to really consider is the distribution of those cuts. it is underperforming -- it is pumping so far below its quotas that it will have to convince the markets that any cut it decides on wednesday is not just a cut to the quotas but it will lead to less oil being delivered to global markets. that might take, for example, a unilateral cut by saudi arabia. manus: they have the capacity to deliver that swing add and swing

cut. his royal highness wants to keep people itching. let's head to europe. where are we on the gas crisis? give us the context of what russia has now done to italy. paul: yeah, that is big news. it cut off gas to italy over the weekend. some people might say it is not surprising. what we've seen with russia is a gradual reduction of flows to those countries and through various pipelines. i think in all honesty, a lot of european officials must be looking ahead to next year and thinking flows from russia will be all but zero. it looks like there will be absolutely nothing through nord stream 1 because of the damage the pipeline has suffered. it is possible the other pipelines too will be cut to

nothing or almost nothing by russia. basically every day we are getting news that suggests europe just cannot count or bank on any flows coming from russia. that means the continent really has to ramp up purchases of liquefied national -- liquefied natural gas from places like the u.s., qatar and australia. dani: thank you, paul wallace. another check on sterling after the bbc breaking story reporting the u.k. will reverse that scrapping of the 45% tax rate. we are expecting a statement in the next hour. we are above 112, putting sterling at its highest since september 22, that happened to be the day right before we got the mini budget. manus: to quote michael gove, one of the veterans of the tory

party, to deliver a tax cut for those in the higher tax brackets in the united kingdom is not conservative. to fund a tax cut by borrowing marked a betrayal. this of course was the essence of a building rebellion against liz truss in her chancellor. this is about the confidence void we've talked about. dani: the u-turn comes after several tory mps voiced opposition to the plan, so exactly what you are talking about. coming up, or politics but in brazil. we bring you the latest on the unexpectedly close race for the leader of latin america's biggest democracy. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: the brazilian presidential race headed for a runoff after a tight election. lula with 48% of the vote, short

of the majority needed for the victory. roderigo, what does this mean? roderigo: it means we have a lot of uncertainty going into the runoff on october 13. it was much tighter than expected. there was expectations lula would get at least half of the vote and also narrow had a very good showing. clear wins in both. manus: roderigo, short, sweet and punchy. thank you for being with us. we will pick that story up in the rest of programming here on europe. bloomberg markets: europe is next. ♪

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