dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe", i'm dani burger in london with manus cranny also in london. manus: dubs take a round, the rba surprises with a smaller than forecast rate hike. stocks and futures rally. u.s. manufacturing falls the lowest level in 2 years, fueling optimism the fed may soften its stance and sparking gains on wall street. key jobs data is due later today. sources say kwasi kwarteng will bring forward his fiscal plan in the bid to take on markets. liz truss may still struggle to advance her economic program. packing the bags, i am going to vienna but the rba shifts narrative. it is a dovish hike.

dani: yesterday going from the sell everything to the rally we have seen. mark is trying to price everything -- markets trying to price everything. s&p 500 futures continuing to push higher after a more than 2% gain yesterday. that was the third-best start to an october since 1930's spooky season. a rally of more than 1% in the nasdaq. the euro stoxx 50 futures and s&p all bouncing off of the rate decision. bank of america says we have not capitulated, there is more selling to go. our hope a lot of it says his -- kalanovich says his target

for the s&p is in trouble. manus: the rba is not on a preset path. down goes the aussie dollar on the back of this 25 basis point hike. the royal bank of canada says it is a temporary reprieve along with a number of others. this rally is challenged. we will go down says morgan stanley. the harsh northern hemisphere winter will kick in, and there is fiscal largess in the u.k. the language from kwarteng, either amazing naivete or just downright arrogance. the gilt market broke last week. 10 year paper goes down and aussie rates are the tail wagging the global rates dog. all rates are under pressure because of this peak height

narrative kicking in. -- hike narrative kicking in. dani: you have got $83 a barrel, that is up, manus. but what has caught our attention today is the rba rate decision. this is the first central-bank decision we've gotten, after the global volatility of last week. is this central banks moving in this direction of preferring stability over the fight against inflation? manus: let's get to everybody around the world. in sydney for more on the rba, and jules will take us through market moves. then we will talk about the fed and u.s. economics. lizzy burden is at the tory party conference in birmingham. dani: australia's dollar tumble as much as 1%, after the rba

delivered a smaller than expected 25 basis point rate hike. expectations had been for a fifth straight half a point increase. joining us now is swathi, in sydney, what prompted the rba to go slow? when we look at the rest of the world to was delivering just a few weeks ago more than 500 basis point of tightening? >> it was a surprise decision. a small group of economists were expecting a 25 basis point increase, even though he had signaled he would slow down the rate of interest rate hikes. his argument is the rba has delivered a essential increase over a short period of time. this started with the 25 basis point increase, and after four 50 basis point hikes.

the interest rate is above the neutral rate where policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary. so, it was a good time for them to signal a slowdown in the pace of hike and assess the economic situation, and how effective the rate hikes have been. manus: we have seen pretty gargantuan moves across the bond and fx space. we will get to those in a moment, but is there something that makes australia different? is the structure of their mortgage market, let's say everybody in the states is on a 30 year, in the u.k. you are on a two-year or five-year, what is different about the rba? >> that is right. the structure of the mortgage market is very different. more than 60% of australians'

mortage is on variable-rate, which means the monetary policy translation is a lot more potent than in the united states where interest rate edges are on -- mortgages are on a fixed 30-year term. that is the factor behind this outlier position and going slow on interest rate hikes. manus: swati, thank you so much, in sydney, with the latest on the rba moves. i showed you the aussie currency, but how it is impacting the asian trade is pervasive as ever. jules has got a new one. juliette: i know you want to look at that big move we've seen in yields, the biggest drop since 2008 which is when the rba

cut rates by 100 basis points moving into the gsa. here we are looking at implied volatility forbad -- for the aussie, still not testing the lows we saw on friday. it is holding around 64.5 at the moment. let's have a look at the move in equity markets because a huge rally in australian stocks, having their best day since june 2020. and what happens with the rv and said -- rbnz, they could do a 50 basis point hike as well, so you are seeing pressure on the kiwi. asian stocks are holding onto the best day since march despite be missile launch we saw from north korea. the likes of japan and korea higher. dani: all you get is that heart

today. we will have to get you the other reports he desired. on the other side of the break, we saw the s&p 500 enjoying its best session since july. third-best since the 1930's. investors are paring expectations of how aggressively the fed will hike. following weaker than expected manufacturing data. but rafael bostic says companies adjusting supply chains will lead to more upward pressure on prices. >> elevated inflation today is the most pressing issue facing policymakers. by crating long-term upward price pressure, secular shifts in supply chain management could present additional challenges for monetary policy makers during a period of already elevated inflation. dani: not to mention it is jobs day on friday.

here to help us cover jobs week is bloomberg's daniel loss. there is an element of looking at the data and interpreting that, versus what the fed has been saying. williams', policy not give restrictive, how do we sort these things? >> it's about what comes after that. i would just add a potential point of nuance, the district bank presidents with the exception of new york, i have learned, are not the ones to listen to. the two most important things are the speech by layla brain are friday, the vice chair, and the speech by john williams monday. both of them, and certainly in the case of williams with reporters, have acknowledged there is a global element here. at some point, the fed needs to

think as they move into restrictive policy, how fast do we do this? evercore isi have talked about the need for the fed to get off the hamster wheel of 75 basis points. something that is causing enormous strain to the global economy transmitted through dollar strength. comments by brainard, and some of the q&a stuff from williams may turn out to be pretty significant. manus: you listen to people like yeredani saying get off 75. and and typing because of -- end tightening because of qe.

where is the rba in all of this? do you believe that what the rba does has that pervasive impact globally? >> first, a bit of throat clearing. i'm not suggesting the tightening cycle is over. none of the fed officials who may be injecting nuance are suggesting tightening is over. it's an emerging debate about how fast you get there. the rba, are they going to be sitting around on his due to -- constitution avenue saying hey, how about that, probably not. but in an environment where there are great concerns outside the united states about the strength of the dollar, and the global economy, this is going to land. manus: daniel, throat clearing

as always, sometimes i run faster than my words come out of my mouth. the clarity around fed speak. some members of liz truss's cabinet are warning that key parts of the economic package are unlikely to be realized. that was yesterday's u-turns, lizzy burden is at the conservative already conference in -- party conference in birmingham, two u-turns, is it enough to change the narrative? lizzy: i think about it this way. they are for two different audiences. we heard yesterday big government was going to stop the cut to the top rate of income tax. that was politically toxic. if liz truss did not reverse it, her own mp's were going to vote

it down. for markets, they had another surprise. officials told us last night that they are going to publish the medium-term fiscal plan sooner than expected. it was going to be november 23, now it is going to come shortly. it will also come with the forecast from the office of budget responsibility. the obr had been gagged, and that had undermined the credibility of the budget in the eyes of the market, but the issue remains that the government is doing a massive amount of borrowing not just for energy bailouts but longer-term for tax cuts which are permanent. at a time when you have got high inflation and high interest rates, and it's not clear when the obr is going to agree with the chancellor about how much growth they are going to stimulate. dani: all of that feeding into

this bond market rally, hoping for more u-turns to come. let's take a look at key things we will watch out for. 10:00 a.m. we will have euro area ppi, 3:00 p.m. we will have manufacturing from the data data -- data from the u.s.. manus: a ecb governing council member will speak at a conference in luxembourg. later, a number of head presidents are speaking across the u.s. new york's john williams, really important, dallas, cleveland's loretta mester, mary daly all due to speak. i wonder where the reaffirmation will come from across the fed speak. dani: and the jobs data really important as we look for cracks in the labor market.

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>> i'm totally mystified, surprised that fed officials don't seem to acknowledge that just focusing on the fed funds rate as part of monetary tightening is a mistake. when you also have qt and a soaring dollar, these are very restrictive monetary developments. i think they will go one more rate hike in november and that will be it because financial stability will be the primary concern. dani: a research president who

was stumped, mystified and surprised. manus: i am on a daily basis. this morning, i was stumped when the alarm went off. norman villamin is never stumped, he is the cio for union bank. is he right, they are overly focused on this fed funds rate, because of qt and this monster really on the dollar? norman: i don't think they are over focused on fed funds. the economy in the u.s. is slowing and the job market remains strong, so i think they are rightfully concerned they are going to release policy a little too quickly. and allow inflation to resume going forward.

but he rightly points out, the balancing act is avoiding a financial system mistake. that is what central banks are dealing with right now. dani: a central bank mistake, but i take you to what barkin said saying there is risk of financial contagion to the u.s. dollar norman: let's be clear about what market they are concerned about in terms of stability. they are concerned about the u.s. market. we saw this during the asian financial crisis. we saw this in 2010-2011 during the european financial crisis. it wasn't until these shocks came on shore and threatened the domestic u.s. economy, that they became concerned. i expect they will stay to that script and focus on what is

happening domestically until it starts to come onshore. manus: there was a splendid policy in the united kingdom of isolation. you can't live in isolation, this is the point which is we have global issues. the aussies rocked the bond markets this morning, there is an arrogance, isn't it? norman: the last time they responded to a global p roblem easing policy was in 1995 the russian crisis. it didn't tip into recession and we got what was then the biggest asset bubble in history in 2000. the fed does not want to be premature. the u.s. economy is not in a position where they need to ease. they will try to hold off as long as they can to prevent

rekindling the asset bubble. dani: on the asset bubble, we have seen stocks declined remarkably. it was the worst streak of quarterly declines in the s&p 500 since the financial crisis. bank of america says we have seen capitulation yet, do you agree? norman: yes, it has been a terrible decline but even with that, the stock market is at 16 times earnings, which is the average prior to the pandemic. by no means has it unwound excesses. if you look at where earnings expectations are, they are at a level that is consistent with a expanding u.s. economy. manus: second line on the note, the s&p 500 has not only unpriced, they are back to levels that you haven't seen since pre-pandemic.

how much further do we need to reprice on the downside before you step in and buy? norman: we think another 10% on pe, but we think earnings need to fall by 10 to 15% to price the slowing in the economy right now. manus: short and 16th, norman can come back. -- succint, norman can come back. e.u. finance ministers me for a second day in luxembourg. energy takes central stage as we head to vienna. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: it is daybreak europe with me and dani burger joined at the hip in london.

the bond markets are convulsing, so is credit suisse. we spoke about credit default swaps, it is not just where they are at the end of the day, 300. , 600 offer, that is a cap. are we going into a liquidity asphyxiation with credit suisse? when will the regulator may be step in here? dani: i think we have a chart of the spread. we are contained by liquidity crunches at the moment. who would participate in a capital raise at this state? like when kuwait invested in citi? manus: the qatari's, i know there was a lawsuit over it. they were monster shareholders.

so too was mr. harold, who was on this roster as well. the qataris have reduced their holdings, david harold has also really regretted not bailing sooner. who is the sovereign wealth fund that will stand out? what is your quote? dani: will the real slim capitol police standup -- please stand up. it is a lot of capital they will need. they said we believe the group will meet 6 billion swiss francs of capital to effectively restructure operations. manus: that is a lot more than what is built into the stock price. the market thanks for billion is -- four billion is priced in, but is it that they need capital

or confidence? to get through the transition, and take really cheap prices on those, maybe that is why they need extra capital. dani: the stock trading at a record low. you can call them up, manus. we will continue. we have an analyst from the report we were just mentioning, and we will talk about the u.k. we are live at the ruling conservative party conference. this is bloomberg. ♪

manus: welcome to "daybreak europe," with me, manus cranny and dani. dani: the dollar slides, stocks and futures rally. u.s. manufacturing falls to the lowest level in over two years, fueling optimism the fed may soften its policy stance. key jobs data due to later today. damage control. liz truses may still struggle to advance key parts of her economic program. it does feel like every week we're looking for the tail that wags the dog. last week it was u.k. markets. today it is australia. manus: it is. they're up 50 basis points, assumed in consensus. that has had massive

ramifications. i didn't come up with this, the short end of the aussie rates. i don't know why i'm laughing. because it's monstrous. 32 basis points. the momentum, dani, of global slowdown, peak rates and that adds to momentum, down 20 basis points and the short end yesterday. dani: it's doing enough to put a bid into the equity markets. it's gone from sell everything to an everything rally. manus: my favorite line, cash is no longer trash that. investment strategy of mine finally pays off. dani: keeping cash in the mattress now. manus: let's talk about the u.k. some of liz truss's government

warning parts of her economic revolution may not be realized. it's hard to restore credibility after yesterday's multiple u-turns. they outflanked themselves on the tax u-turn because the market gave up on that yesterday. let's talk through these u-turns, lizie, you know she channeled her inner thatcher. hasn't gone so well so far. dani: no. the lady has returned, it was clear m.p.'s in the tory party would vote down the top income tax. liz truss is not going ahead with that. it did rally bonds and sterling for a little bit, investors said it was because it showed that the government was willing to be a little more malleable. but really, even now, even

though they've now done that, the overall forecast going forward, as well as the medium term fiscal plan, you've got the fundamental concern that the tax cuts funded by borrowing at a time when borrowing is more expensive. the focus now turns to how the chancellor will pay for it all. looks like deep spending cuts are in the pipeline. economic analysis suggests deeping -- deeper spending cuts in the austerity years. i spoke to the chief treasury of the secretary and the secretary of state for pensions, neither were concerned they're not going to cut benefits. looks like we'll have even more political explosions in the pipeline. dani: liz sy, i think we do have that sound -- lizzy, i think we

do have the sound you were talking about -- i'm sorry, we don't have that sound, i lied to you and everyone. save me herer lizzy. politically there were concerns of tories polling extremely badly. when it comes to liz truss's future, does that mean her concerns, her future, her survival is now in a better place? lizzy: my colleague has been doing fantastic reporting on this. she's always in the dark corners of the conference hall in birmingham. at first there were concerns that tory m.p.'s were going to ask the chair to change the rules so that liz truss's immunity for a year from a vote of confidence could be changed and she could be removed. that seems to have died down a bit but we're hearing even some of truss's cabinet says she'll

be a lame duck for the rest of her term. it will be difficult for her to do this full radical reform on the economy she really wants to do. dani: lizzy, thank you very much. lizzy burden joining us from the tory party conference in birmingham. dani, this goes to the heart of the matter. dani: it's not just sterling, it's also the mark that's on a wild ride. let's talk about all of it with sebastian daily. this is what i'm looking at. you have the yield market over the span of one month. it falls by 100 in one day. we're looking at another rally. this is a lot of volatility for a bond market which yawcially

does not see much action. what happened to an investment strategy when usually a calm asset like this is all of a sudden volatile? >> it's more of a preview of what's going to happen because the market has been bulled up on expectations of rate hikes. this u.k. crisis of confidence, people like to be depressed by the u.k. economy. some of it is real because of brexit and other issues. if the government actually cuts into benefits at a time when the people who suffer the most from inflation are crying for help and that's going to intensify in the next few weeks and months, then you have a volatile cocktail, unfortunately. sowf a lot of people coming out and dancing on the top of the hills which is -- it's an unhappy mix. back down you get the rallies.

sterling from extremely weak levels. the question is, where do we go forward? it's difficult for an investor to place themselves in such a spectrum. most investors will prefer to stay on the short end. manus: sebastian, good morning. finally we meet across the airwaves. i read your research, thanks for staying up for us. we had the monster move and mohns eball. the rallies in sterling and that an attack will come again. the guilt market has had over three but it was the tail that wagged the global bond market dog. are we setting up for another wave of attack against the u.k.? sebastian: i think that wave of bearishness, the head of deutsche bank coming out on the u.k. economy and others, it's basically become just an appealing meme and it feeds on

itself. some of it is real. some of the underlying elements of the speculative move are real. commentary sometimes is actually not responsible. most people when they're faced with commentary, in the case of the u.k. hasn't happened much which is very unfortunately fortunate. i think the key bearishness is there. the u.k. government goes around, cuts benefits to people who are already suffering a lot, you could get big associate movements in the u.k. so that really depends on what the u.k. government does. fit actually hits, it will repeat itself. dani: you have this idea where some of it is real. tell me what's not real. what have we seen to you that is jumping on again as you say this appealing meme of bearish u.k. stories? sebastian: just look, i sat in

an investment bank in london, you started to get rumors flying around, much like on twitter, a lot of it is nonsense. some of it was real. then you ended up, people are running around and that was for real reasons. every phenomenon is something real. in the case of u.k., real data, not based on rumor, based on actions, some of which are deeply unhelpful. it feeds upon itself. people just running around. they have trade. they're pushing the taid they have. one should be aware of it. they don't talk in a neutral way most of the time. manus: they don't and all traders will push their own group. these are not real trades. they're not real price of electricity or gas. they are huge spec. monstrous spec positions built up over time. what do they knead to do?

you say this is a meme, it's irresponsible, hyperbole unline. what fiscally does this chancellor need to do to prevent another explosive move? his language yesterday deserves serious consideration. the market groak, you can't deny that. their actions broke the guilt market. what do they need to do to close the credibility gap? >> they need to live in reality. you can't blame international bond mark for what happened. and the market is driven by the british market and people feeding on it. they feed on the actions. you can't spend the rest of your life look in the past. you have to look forward. and dance wit. they're not dancing yet. so they back down, strange reasons for it. they need to accept reality that they're living in a giant community, there are limitations to what they can do.

maybe need to be good, trustworthy government in the sense that they do the right thing, not what they believe from an ideological point of view but what the economy actually needed. that may take a few weeks which is deeply unhelpful. dani: there is an elm though, their actions set the bond mark on fire. what was already present in this macro environment was liquidity, a lot of fragility that seemed anything could tip it over the edge. when you look at this financial system and the risk of more things to happen, like u.k. pentagon, how present is this? have we moved into market disfunction from poor liquidity? >> one should be aware, liquidity is a complex phenomenon. the way it happens is, when you match supply and demand and, that's something which is deeply imaginary. as you match supply and demand

there's something in the middle called liquidity risk. it all matches in. when you get a big shot such as brexit. supply shocks, demand that we've seen globally it doesn't work so well. it becomes bigger. and it's also refrequented in other financial marks such as the long end of the guild term. the number of suppliers and hedgers and speculators don't match very well because it's difficult for long-term investors to be in the long end, except for pension funds which are more or less forced to it. because there's been so much liquidity and they're desperate to earn yield they've leveraged it like crazy which forced the bank of exland to step in. u.k. as a whole is rich in savings because the market is afraid but as an aggregate it owes the rest of the world because of the position of the u.k. having said this, within these pockets, the rich and middle income, in the u.k., are actually quite rich. they're very happy with a

reasonable policy from the government to extend the duration and stabilize the yield market. for that they need to believe the government is doing the right thing which is not the case now. manus: certainly not at the moment. sebastian, thank you very much. sebastian galy. coming up in the next hour, the chair of the u.k.'s parliamentary treasury committee joining us from the tory party conference. dani: let's get to the first word news. standing by with that is julia in singapore. julia: commissioners are calling for joint guaranteed debt as the continent continues to face up to an energy crisis. they wrote that situation means yurp is at another cross roads. the e.u.'s 1.8 trillion

emergency package in the pandemic was the first time they issued joint debt. officials in florida face 6 -- say 68 people have been killed by hurricane ian as the damage still mounts, five day that was storm struck. president biden has said he'll visit florida and wednesday to survey the damage from what he describes as one of the worst storms to hit the u.s. one estimate says that insured losses could reach $67 billion. the japanese government has issued a rare warning to residents in remote islands to take shelter after north korea fired a missile over its territory for the first time since 2017. south korea says it was a medium range ballistic missile. japan said it splashed down in waters to the country's east. elon musk is drawing criticism after a series of tweets calling for ukraine to negotiate with

russia to end the war and cede crimea for good. he proposes voting to ask residents if they want to live in ukraine or russia. global news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts -- analysts in more than 100 countries. dani: coming up, we'll continue the credit suisse story, talking about the six billion swiss franks they'll need to get through the crisis. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: credit suisse shares touched a record low yesterday as the continued fallout of concern confidence when it comes to credit suisse builds with their risk gauge jumping to an all-time high. let's get straight to our guest, the head of european banking, andrew simpson. thank you so much for joining us this morning. so you and the team write they need six billion swiss francs to turn things around. where is that going to come from? andrew: some can come from asset sarybltion the rest we think they'll have to raise as fresh capital from the market. manus: good morning, andrew. they said they should have sold the stock years ago. who steps in. who steps in, where does the capital come from?

andrew: comes from the markets somewhat. it will depend on the strategic management. then they should be able to raise. given where the shares have gotten to, that's a large proportion of the existing market cap. dani: i bugged manus this weekend when he was out having a lovely sunday brunch, what is happening on financial twitter, talking about credit suisse. the speculation was wild, talking about another implosion of the financial market because of sweat chriss. these are pure and simple rumors but from what in your perspective, is this just a confidence issue or is there something more pernicious here through the entire thoif european banking sector? andrew: i think it's -- all the regulators have done a very good

job, somehow i'm probably including myself at some point. all the extra security and rules brought in for the financial crisis. they've built in a lot more liquidity for the banks and a lot more buffers. to my mind there's a lot of things going on on twitter were very unhelpful and nothing near to what reality would be. we think the needs -- the bank needs capital to have positive equity to reach it, to present to stake holders in the future. that's going to include some capital needed for growth. which is why our estimate is probably toward the top end of expectations out there in the market. but this is a bank with an enormous amount of liquidity, an enormous amount of capital. manus: that is probably the two most important statements the

three of us have had. enormous amount of capital and enormous amount of liquidity. do you agree it's hyperbole this doom and gloom. let's care this away very, very clearly. how much of that is just media and twitter speculating? how robust is credit suisse? can you confirm that credit suisse is not in a doom loop? let's square this away. andrew: credit suisse is not in a doom loop with respect to liquidity. we think there are strategic questions, there are questions around whether the bank can get its cost base down to what it says it can be. it can do. and questions about whether it has enough capital to grow after it has shrunk down its investment base which can be very expensive and absorb some excess capital.

so it's about the equity story, and being able to grow the bank after that. dani: they've got to grow the bank and they say they'll lay out their plans for doing that on october 27. will the market give them the time, will it wait until october 27? andrew: the last few days would suggest it would prefer a plan earlier rather than later. and currently the bank is sticking to that date. so we'll have to wait until the bank and the, you know, relatively new management team are ready to present their plan. i can appreciate that there are pressures on the management to accelerate that. but at the same time i'm sure they want to make sure they get it right first time. the last thing the bank will want to do is rush out a plan and then need to amend it in a few months time. that hasn't gone well for the bank in the past.

so there are competing pressures on the timeline for the management team. manus: let's extrapolate. six billion in capital, two billion from asset sales, four billion in equity. do you just dump the investment bank or turn it into u.b.s., investment bank light? feed the puppy, feed the wealth management? andrew: ultimately that is what, i would say, lots of the recent credit suisse business plans in the past few years have all kind of gone in that direction gradually. i would says this time to make a more decisive move in whatever direction management chooses. it has to be decisive. it can't, in our opinion, should not be an incremental plan. it has to be a much more desitessive move. if we look at where that's worked in the past, with deutsche bank, it's been a

decisive move. shrinking of the big business. dani: we're almost out of time, i want to squeeze this in. you talk about the idea that credit suisse will be a buy. at what level are they a buy? 10 seconds here, andrew. andrew: we'll need to wait and see how much. see what the strategic plan is going to be. it's all uncertain at the moment. manus: this will be your abiding memory of this interview, she's cruel. dani: only sometimes. manus: it's a double act here. dani: he handled it well. manus: i think you've made a fair point. let's see where they respond in terms of liquidity and capital. come back when we get the plan. great to have you with us on the show. that is andrew stimpson head of

k.d.w. russia coming off the gas delivery, novak is rising in vienna, tomorrow we'll be chasing him. let's get our colleague andrew james in singapore. here we are. germany's energy program is alarming other e. yumplet members -- e.u. members, why? >> 200 billion euros, pretty massive. the concern is somehow the european economies will struggle to match a proportionate sort of package for their own economies given that they face considerably higher borrowing costs in germany. and the fears and the response

to the energy crisis. we had a finance minister meeting yesterday. sort of talked about these concerns and stressed the need for europe to sort of present a united front here. there's also concern arising from other places that various things will stoke higher inflation. dani: thank you very much. bloomberg's andrew janes. and manus is off. ♪

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