haidi: good morning. welcome to daybreak australia. annabelle: we are counting down

to asia's major market open. shery: the top stories this hour. u.s. listed chinese stocks plunger concerns over xi jinping's grip on power. the golden dragon index opposing the biggest drop on record. haidi: a rally for the second straight session as investors gear up for technology earnings and the prospect of slower fed hikes. shery: rishi sunak warns of a economic challenge as he becomes the third prime minister this year. u.s. futures under a little bit of pressure after u.s. stocks gaining ground for a second session i had a big technology earnings this week -- ahead of big technology earnings this week. 80% of firms on the s&p 500 are in the green. 60% are positively surprised.

we continue to follow the data around the economy in the u.s., pmi's contracting in the services sector, a little bit more pessimistic mood in the new york session although in the asian session we are gaining a bit of ground towards $85 per barrel level on oil. in the u.s. and on what is happening in china, delayed economic numbers. pointing to a mixed recovery. look at what the golden dragon china indexed it today because this is where all of the fireworks were. a 14% slump. this is as chinese adr side bob, baidu, -- this is as chinese adr, baidu, what this means for jinping's supremacy in china after assist curing the third

term -- after xi jinping secured the third term. annabelle: what this means for covid zero and state backed organizations. it was a resigning no from the traders. this is back at a 2008 low. the question is coming into this session is is this a buying opportunity? look at what jp morgan is saying, the fundamentals here disconnected from reality. we will see what happens in the session. we are watching the offshore, we are above the seven point three level for the first time as you said, this is down to concerns about the economic background in china. the yen, intervention watch in japan, two incidents where they could have stepped in, trading like this.

otherwise we have new zealand back online, australian futures are in the green. looking to take a few cues from what happened in the wall street session. you are concerned about a warning about the global backdrop. haidi: financial risks and concerns are of key importance, yellen talked about the dangerous backdrop when it comes to the economy. she's keeping a close eye on how the economy and markets hold the potential to disrupt the financial system. it is not surprising we have this conch in -- caution after the tumble in the yen. not to mention the chinese economic slowdown. you mentioned earlier the a mixed bag when it comes to those delays in the gdp and activity numbers. we are dealing with a plunging equity and currency market.

we know that in other places this may give governments pause. this is on xi jinping's leadership, his consolidated mode of policymaking, investors are wondering whether the bet is worth it. we know that you can profit quite lucrative lee if you are aligning your bets and investments along with policy priorities but this amount of volatility, chinese stocks pummeling the most in 2008. they have gone through the 10% slump when it comes to tech stocks, huge volumes compared to the average. not only has it really seen the weakness, it is about 2% weaker than the vix. pushing the limit of the 2% trading band, something that we do not usually see -- ban, not something that we usually see. shery: i have to wonder why there was such a big reaction in the markets here. we knew that the president was

securing a third term. what is being priced in now? >> i think this is a pretty brutal session. the golden dragon index declined 22%. we are back to the 2004 level which happened to be the year that xi jinping came to power. 10 years of gains. one of the bigger reasons is that because investors have concerns, the market oriented performers on the standard committee. officials like the ones who exclude the foreign committee. there is concern about the chinese government. haidi: investors have to decide whether this aligns with their investment objectives. how can we see a turnaround?

do we see this coming in? is it a priority to support domestic equity markets? >> is a big question. -- that is a big question. we had heard comforting words and eventually they has stabilized the market. this time people are wondering whether they will come out and say these words. if they do see these words, -- say these words, whether the market will buy at this time. shery: that was the latest on the market moves. big moves in chinese adr's. we have been following the moves in the u.k. markets as well. this is with the incoming prime minister saying that the u.k. faces a profound economic challenge as he prepares to take power.

>> there is no doubt we face a profound economic challenge. we now need stability and unity, i pledge that i will serve you with integrity and humility. i will work day in and day out to deliver for the british people. shery: let us bring in john author, we saw the big market move when it comes to the biggest u.k. pond gains on record. i have to ask given the challenges that rishi sunak faces, how positive can this market environment before him? >> the only way is up. [laughter] one thing you should note he describes this as a profound economic challenge. he tweeted out the same statement, placenta crisis rather than challenge. he is trying to talk down very slightly the expense -- extent

of the difficulty. the thing that he has going for him is that a lot of very bad changes in the probably accepted now that he was right. he did tell us. unfunded tax cuts weren't really bad. -- were really bad and they had the effect that he said they would. that gives him a lot of authority to do what he perceives as needing to be done in the economy and markets. i would be surprised britain is not able to stabilize quite a bit at this point. haidi: you say that politics at this point has been taken out of the equation. if we go back to bread and butter, the economic basics, what does it mean with the technocrats back in charge? >> it is much more questionable

with the voters like technocrats. in this situation, there is not much else to do. they just tried going for broke, swinging for the fences. it was a complete disaster. there is a grasp that things are tough anyway. rishi sunak seems to have the combination of skills and abilities that he is going to at least be perceived to be a competent manager of a difficult situation. in terms of i do not think the markets are that worried by the likelihood of a labor government at this moment because there are more than two years to go before we have to have another general election. i find it really hard to imagine rishi sunak can do anything that will stop labor from winning. labor needs to blow this rather

than to not have any opportunity to actually win this. as time goes by, markets probably are not going to like the prospect of a new labor government. that is two years away. haidi: that is john. in the meantime, the australia deficit is less than half of the level anticipated by the previous administration. bolstered by certain commodity prices. the labor government has the first budget later on tuesday. we keep hearing that this is going to be no surprise in the budget. the recent floods have changed estimates a little bit. what are we expecting? >> the prime minister says this budget is going to deal with cost-of-living pressures by not add to inflation. sounds like quite the balancing act. we have heard of a few announcements in the pipeline like increased spending on childcare and local media

reporting and a plan to build a one million -- and a plan to build one million new homes. that could be pushing up the cost of building supplies. we heard from the treasury before he headed into the budget lock up, that is like passing behind the moon, we will not hear him again until he delivers his speech to the house later on tonight. he identified inflation as the primary problem to address here. largely thanks to soaring commodity prices and due to the war in you, the treasurer accepts that will be a one-off and it will not last. there are other pressures as well. inflation pressures building, we have numbers out tomorrow, that should rise to 7% on the third quarter, these big ticket items, health care, defense spending, although that will rise across the forward estimates. i would be interested to see

what the future budget deficits will look like. shery: analysts expecting a new material impact on australia's economy from the budget. >> it will be a bread and butter budget, this is the way that the treasurer has been hedging it. it will be solid, simple, sensible, a few surprises. he says he has taken learnings from what happened with the ongoing u.k. prime minister and her attempt at bringing in tax cuts for the very wealthy. i did not go down so well -- that did not go down so well. australia has pledged to retain tax cuts planned for the upper brackets of the tax system and they were put in place of the previous government. we do not expect with these is removed tonight. i guarantee that that will go into the future budget as we see the inflationary pressures build. haidi: for more on australia's

budget, later on in the show we are getting jo's views we see why we will see a week physical view for australia. >> president biden is setting up a meeting with xi jinping after he emerged from the congress with a tighter grip on the country. the national security countries says the u.s. will not comment on china's leadership process but will keep the lines of communication open. president biden is hoping to meet xi jinping in bali. the u.s. is alleging two chinese intelligence officers try to obstruct a criminal investigation of huawei. it also says other suspects were working on behalf of foreign powers to the core technology. christopher wray says 10 of the 13 individuals charged were chinese intelligence officers. the yen weakened against the dollars despite japan ramping up

its defense of the currency with a second intervention. the finance minister said japan was in a firm confrontation with the and could not tolerate excessive currency moves. the doj is said to be a key catalyst for the currency. the in iran has issued guilty verdicts and indictments for 315 people arrested for taking part in antigovernment rallies. the protests are into their six week. state media says four people have been charged with belligerence, a crime that can carry the death sentence. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. shery: we talk market strategy with pence wealth management laila pence. she thinks fixed income has become a real option for investors for the first time since 2007. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: u.s. futures are trading at the moment, a little bit of pressure after the s&p 500 rallied for a second session in new york, 80% of stocks in the s&p 500 gaining ground. this ahead of bigger earnings,

microsoft, met up, this week. -- meta, this week. 4.25% as treasury yields push higher. our next guest is putting cash to work. let us bring in laila pence, the president of pence wealth management. a lot of volatility and uncertainty out there. are investors positioned a little bit conservatively at this point? where do you see the opportunities admits this change that amidst the -- where do you see the opportunities amidst this change? laila: we could not get any earnings on the fixed side of the portfolio. we do not have to be as aggressive with the portfolio allocations. we can allocate more into fixed income. andrew treasuries and regular fixed income at much higher

rates than we have seen in the past 15 years. we liked regional banks, we really like those, we think those are areas we can benefit from net interest income with the rising interest rates. we like the resources close to foreign banks or the larger banks because they do not have exposure to international and credit risk. shery: this chart on the bloomberg, investors can see how rising local yields are offering fixed income yields a multiyear high. let me bring it back to what is happening not only in the markets but away from the fed, a little bit more politically. we have just wrapped up the party congress in china. we are headed towards the u.s. midterm elections as well. what opportunities does this spring? laila: historically over the last 20 years looking at the midterm elections, at last two years in a row, after the

midterm elections, basically, the market has gone up within the next six months of an average of 8% return. there is no indication and would do that this time we had to rely on history. that is because the market really likes gridlock and likes and even if it does not have gridlock, if one party dominates it takes one uncertainty out of the market on which market likes. once we get past the midterm election we do think that the market will have a little bit of recovery here by the year end. haidi: are there any new themes or policies you think perhaps your portfolio can be aligned with? laila: primarily, we are looking at things that would benefit from inflation. we see inflation basically staying at these levels for a while longer. next year we see inflation starting to moderate. this will be allowed more inflation than we have had in

the past. it will be quite a while before we get to the 2%. we look at payment companies, we look at discount retailers which still more and more shoppers go to discount retailers because of the high costs of goods. there is a lot of opportunities in areas that will benefit from inflation which we are looking at. haidi: what does that tell you about the gap between the middle income consumer and the low income consumer in this inflationary environment? laila: there is a big gap. in terms of the low income, they will go primarily to the retailers. the high income, we find that the high luxury goods is an area we are looking at. the higher income individuals are still have the high end stores which is an area we focus

in. shery: before we let you go, big earnings seasons are getting started, our technology result this week, this chart on the bloomberg showing how it was a really ugly year. do you see any opportunities in the selloff? laila: it is -- there is so much more risk in the chinese market than the u.s. market. we feel that there is a lot less risk in the u.s. and just as much upside. we are staying away from the chinese markets right now because as you know, the political scene is not very favorable to the chinese market. we see better directions from the chinese government, we are staying away from that. haidi: always great to have you

with us. you can get the roundup of the stories that you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. terminal subscribers can find that at dayb . get the news on the assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪

shery: here is a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. apple has raised its costs for the apple music service, it goes up by a dollar for an individual. tv plus johnson two dollars a month. services generate nearly a quarter of the company's sales. quarterly results are due out this week.

cost of cruises is canceling all future asia departures as popes diminish of any early loosening of china's covid restrictions. the unit did not mention china in a statement but had previously advertised big plans to tap consumers there. indonesia's largest technology group says it is in talks with his owners for a control sale of their stakes. it is gaining interest of early backers including alibaba for managed sales of stakes around $1 billion. they want to prevent potential stock price fall on november 30. haidi: let us take a look at the asian markets. this is how it is setting up in terms of australia futures. we are watching the selloff in the u.s.. global stocks are looking to extend their gains.

futures are up by half a percent here. the aussie dollar setting up of the 63 u.s. senate level. we are watching kiwi stocks. we are watching the delivery of the first budget under the current government in australia, it has been called the bread and butter budget. unsurprising considering the physical outlook as well as of the outlook when it comes to key demand from markets like china. we are watching trading in the yuan given the weakness in the big salafi equities. al millions have made the switch from the big three to the best kept secret in wireless: xfinity mobile. that means millions are saving hundreds a year with the fastest mobile service. and now, introducing, the best price for two lines of unlimited. just $30 per line. there are millions of happy campers out there. and this is the perfect time to join them... add a line to your existing plan, or see for yourself how easy it is to save by talking to our helpful switch squad

at your local xfinity store today. >> incoming british prime

minister rishi sunak has warned the u.k. faces a profound economic challenge. he called for unity in the nation and his worn conservative party in place of the headwinds,

rising interest rates, and a surge in mortgage costs. it will take office later tuesday after visiting king charles. >> there is no doubt we phase a profound economic challenge. we need stability and unity, i pledge that i will serve you with integrity and humility and i will work day in and out to deliver the british people. >> australia's budget is supposed be less than the previous government. the budget speech will be given to parliament later tuesday. figures released show an underlying cash deficit through june 2023 of $23.4 billion. treasury secretary janet yellen

has cautioned about stresses in the global economy and markets could disrupt the u.s. financial system. the world faces a dangerous and volatile environment and risks to financial stability could materialize. she says banks are well-capitalized with corporate balance sheets in good shape. being on central bank has a prize for the second straight 100 basis point rate hike in a bid to support the weakening currency. this comes after the state bank wiped a trading banner as the currency falls to a -- ban as their currency falls we record low. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. shery: you are watching daybreak australia. the outlook for corporate credit is getting worse, let us bring in annabelle for morning calls. a lot of concern about a key cash flow indicator.

what are the details? annabelle: they use what they call a traffic light system for gauging the health of a corporate credit market, they have three different aspects or pillars of this. the earnings outlook, i already had these two in the red, i downgraded the last pillar from amber. i was the last -- that was the last bastion of support for the market. also to service the debt burdens. what they are concerned about is what they see as a relentless pursuit of changing of central banks to rein in inflation pressures in the economy. as a result, investors seem to be positioning for precision risks, more volatility -- recession risks, more volatility, and credit quality to deteriorate. they are not concerned about an

imminent risk of a crisis. they are worried about the noncyclical names. haidi: what about the outlook for china stocks after what we saw on monday? annabelle: that will be the big question going into the session today. i see a little bit of dip buying after the huge selloff on monday. if you listen to what jp morgan is saying, one of the most vocal bulls we have seen on wall street, he actually says that this is a buying moment for mainland stocks and that is because he says the selloff or the realities of the stock market today is disconnected from the fundamentals. he sees the economic recovery, more fiscal and monetary support and he also sees an easing of covid restrictions. that last thing on covid is one of the sticking points for investors because they saw this leadership reshuffle as

something that will continue to advocate for policy based on covid zero and on state backed enterprises. one of the big technology companies selling off as well. it is worth pointing out another call we are watching today and that is from bank of america and they actually say that china could look to relaxes covid restrictions. now that the party congress is out of the way, the leadership committee can focus on the agenda. that is one of the things they can look to do now. there are two windows of opportunity for this to happen between now and mid november when xi jinping makes a trip to indonesia and between the g20 and the meetings later this year. haidi: you have to spare a thought for china's richest. the ultra-wealthy, some of these big ceos losing $12.7 billion following the reshuffle after

the selloff about the bell was talking about on monday. these are before the party congress and yesterday's selloff. they are on track for their worst year in a decade. we have had these covid zero policies, digging a toll on the economy. look at the biggest losers, these are household names, the nation's wealthiest person, each losing more than 2 billion dollars on monday, shares of those companies really took a tumble. that is according to the billionaires index. it is also alibaba, baidu, those primary listings in the u.s. are down about $3.5 billion by may date. shery: we have seen many of these names already. they are under scrutiny by chinese me leadership -- by chinese leadership. the focus again on prosperity

during this party congress and what that means because we saw president xi jinping use that slogan to rein in the private sector. the concerns about what this means for the barter economy under the markets and how investors are looking at china overall. haidi: let us hope we do not see such a huge reaction to the negative when it comes to trading here from the australian budget to be headed down later on today. we are expecting some moves to the outside when it comes to these key sectors that will be impacted by different policies to be unveiled in the budget that include mining, infrastructure stocks, critical mineral producers in particular, childcare shares could see some upside as well. watching for the 50.5 million dollars over the critical mineral research and development hub as well as pledging of 6 billion u.s. road and rail workers while the infrastructure place could be in there.

housing is one to watch with the supply on real estate. our next guest says the budget will reflect a weaker economic outlook. with us is joanne masters with barrenjoey masters. this is a bread and butter budget, this tension between physical and monetary responsibility is a front and center if want to play out in places like the u.k.. jo: i think that is right. this will be the first budget in decades that are really is being framed against the backdrop of high inflation and a rapid tightening of monetary policy. we are expecting are we have heard actually overnight that the budget deficit for the current financial year 2022 and 2023 will be revised down

materially as we saw in the last financial year. you know you are getting less fiscal stimulus coming through in the near term and that will at least not work against monetary policy. as we have heard time and time again it is a narrow path to a soft landing for australia. haidi: when it comes to outside surprises, we have been going through the key areas that could be seen to benefit infrastructure, some of the specific property policies, what do you think will be a standard in terms of being impactful enough to navigate australia through the next few months and years? at present so much uncertainty to ship present so much -- it presents so much uncertainty. jo: never say never but as you said, what is being described by the treasurer himself is a technical update. the updated economic forecast

that will feed through into revenue and spending. also most importantly, the election commitment, that is a lot of the policies you are referencing in the program. the childcare, report filing of infrastructure, the housing supply side policies. we knew those back in march and they are going to get put into the budget. i know that there will be our provisions as to what we call those spending plans, the age care, defense, infrastructure, and an increased interest built. that will be something new through the pandemic we had a material increase in government debt. at the time we talked about how cheap that was. now it is no longer quite as cheap. i think interest bill will be quite interesting for economists in a relatively new framing. in terms of the policy, we know what is coming. shery: when it comes to prices, we see australians struggle with

the cost of living continuing to rise. how important will it be for this budget not to further fuel inflation? jo: it is a really tricky balance for fiscal policy. you do not want to work against monetary policy and make the reserve bank's job to bring inflation down in harder. we also know that every day australians are doing a really tough job and the budget will show that real wages are expected to continue to fall through the next 18 months or so. it is an ongoing challenge. we are not expecting any direct handouts to households. the government has already framed their childcare and the cheaper medicines and the policy announced over the weekend to increase the income threshold for paid rental leave -- paid parental leave during this addresses because of the big concerns.

-- this addresses many of the big concerns. this will increase the spending on the pensions, jobseekers, the unemployment benefits, and on support for families and carers and those with disabilities. they'll be by 33 phili -- my will be by $33,000. shery: it does not help when you have a depreciating currency. he heard that they are not concerned -- we heard that the rba is not concerned about fueling inflationary concerns. what are you saying on the economy right now when it comes to falling all the dollars and perhaps more pressure on prices -- aussie dollars and perhaps

more pressure on prices? jo: we wrote something on a speech a couple of weeks ago, it is the trade-weighted index that influences inflation. in that sense the australian dollar has not fallen materially. the australian dollar has appreciated against some of our biggest trading partners including china, korea, and japan. we also know that the currency is highly correlated to the cost of imported consumer goods. actually not that highly correlated to the final price of those consumer goods, the cost of the goods which is influenced by the currency but also labor costs, rent, insurance, shipping, and factory wholesale, importing of stock. we know that this hedging strategy is in place. we are not too worried about the currency application on inflation. we do expect that wednesday's

inflation data will show acceleration in annual inflation. we think the peak is near. we are expecting headline and underlying inflation to peak in the december quarter. haidi: australia's government has gone through tough periods because of china. the relationship between the two countries have deteriorated. enter a risk of that china cannot be relied on to be able to get australia through it? how do you see the diversification when it comes to trade now? jo: china is one of australia's largest risks. the impact of a slowdown in china is great for australia. the difficulty is always the balance between slower growth in china and how much infrastructure related stimulus china itself uses to offset that growth weakness. that is what has helped us in

the past. it is also important to remember that the australian dollar is very flexible, it is one of the currencies and i moved the most and that is provided us with an economic stabilizer in the past. remember when the aussie is weak we get the extra boost in terms of trade which has been help all. the challenging global environment is a headwind for the australian economy. the good news is that the balance sheet in office really is quite strong and we do expect commodity prices to come off. they remained relatively elevated. probably because we have the global energy and food crisis and they are two of our major export components. we expect the economy to be able to muddle through in 2023. shery: muddle through is one of the key phrases here. we will be discussing that, plenty more to come, this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: apple has raised the monthly subscription of its services. shery: will apple be able to stay competitive in appealing to users when you have the like of spotify and others in the tv side of things as well? >> i think so.

apple hardware users are so locked into the ecosystem i do not think a price increase on apple music or apple tv plus will move the needle much in terms of turn. i would expect it would be a tad higher. i think people are not going to flee the platform because of this. if you look at the competitive landscape, netflix, the same price as apple tv plus with ads. everyone knows if you are in the allocation of money, you will pick netflix over apple tv plus for the massive content catalog that they have. despite that, tv plus is improving read apple music has already downloaded their music and install all of your playlists. it will be difficult to switch to spotify not pay an extra dollar per month. haidi: disney plus, netflix is playing around with new models as well? >> the martyr consumer has been

used to price increases over the past several months or so -- the market consumer has been used to price increases over the past several months or so. we have seen disney plus price change, the netflix price changes, spotify has a premium tier around $20, i think that it is an increasingly competitive landscape with an assortment of pricing. we saw an estimate who said this could add 1% or around $1 billion to annual revenue for apple. it is not moving the needle. $1 billion is $1 billion. i think for apple, you saw the stock price react in a positive reaction. my question is what does this mean for apple earnings? later this week, you do not need to answer it, i will. the services numbers are not as hot as some have expected.

apple wanted to preempt that. or they are trying to show new ways the company will generate more open revenue in future corners -- future quarters. haidi: that is why we get you on to answer those questions that we have not even asked yet. speaking of potential downsides, tesla, one of the biggest laggards on monday, traders betting on further downside. let us get more from bell. the $200 strike price, what does that mean for the further downside we may be seeing? annabelle: it will signal more downside for tesla on the horizon. the $200 strike price expiration set for friday, that tells us that at least in the office market, traders are thinking it is a further 5% decline for the

share price for tesla. we are in a $211 session, down by 1.5% from friday as well. tesla had to cut the price of its core lineup in china. they had to reduce the price tag on the jeep is a locally built model three sedan by 5%, that is priced at 37,000 u.s. dollars. you have the starting price of the model why suv, that has been dropped by 9%. pretty quite big reductions, international carmakers are having a tough time in china when coming up against locally manufactured items like byd. you also have the new entries in the field like the likes of ne-yo, domestic carmakers of that account for 80% of ev

produced in china. a tough market that they are up against when you look at the slowdown we also have on the mainland. shery: the latest on the eeev space in china. plenty more ahead, this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: it is pudgy here -- it is

budget day here in australia. managing expectations when it comes to policy announcements. a reconciliation of what they promised back in the election. perhaps better comments when it comes to the fiscal situation. some selective sectors are seeming to benefit. we are looking at this dedicated hub when it comes to particular critical minerals producers, they could get a boost. infrastructure firms looking to get a boost off of the pledge when it comes to road and rail work that has been ordered as well as funding for car parks. that is across melbourne and sydney. shery: morgan stanley saying the next budget in may will be policy heavy. as you mentioned, this will be more bread and butter budget. it will still really rely heavily on the trajectory of

inflation and the broader economy, they want to further fuel price pressures. the infrastructure, housing, as of key sectors, children and families because we are expecting a range of family focused measures such as well. we are watching key stocks, also when it comes or telecom, the government is expanding full fiber access to 1.5 lien premises by 2025. some of those stocks we are watching are telecom as well. haidi: walking the fiscal tight rope, we see that relationship between physical and monetary policy play out as well. look at the stocks we are watching when trade begins in australia, in five minutes time. associated press reporting when it comes to the road and rail work deal, $6 billion u.s. will be pledged for that. wanting the likes of the

bluescope, a big beneficiary when it comes to the interim investments as well. as jerry mentioned, -- as you mentioned, the property sector, given how tightly the rental market is, a listing firms and lenders and the big banks, the big mortgage giving banks. shery: we will have more on the markets in the next hour with a focus on the fx markets with christopher wong. this is bloomberg. ♪

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