tv Bloomberg Daybreak Australia Bloomberg November 6, 2022 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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asia's major argot opens. >> good evening. top stories. asian markets looks out for more volatility as chinese officials vowed to unswervingly stick two been zero. >> job losses and big tech. meta to begin big job cuts. >> u.n. climate talks kickoff in egypt with a deal to discuss climate reparations in get rich companies to pay for the damage from global warning. an interesting day. a jobs report deemed strong, strong enough or the fed to keep raising rates. some questions for some and as a result stocks managed to end a four day slight and close higher on the week. you can see the s&p 500 was up nearly 1.4%. the nasdaq up more than 1.5
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percent. the s&p 500 was down 1.5%. another exciting story was u.s. china listed stocks, the nasdaq china golden dragon index was up more than 9% and 17% on the week. it is the story that will not die. no matter what the chinese government says about ending covid zero, markets keep hearing rumors that it will which is what spurred the stocks today or friday. we will see what happens to them today. a selloff in u.s. treasuries after the stronger than expected report for the payrolls number. and the 2-year note got up to 4.8% on friday. quite a selloff. a little rally. you can see ed around 4.67%. oil, same story. the chinese government is going to end covid and people think, it is time to buy oil because of
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a global recession offset by more demand from china. china is the story about covid zero and it it is still affecting markets. >> but is one of the major focus is us today in asia but kicking off from what you said about jobs. traders are still pricing in a downshift. we are looking at more risk on in equities at the start of trading. new zealand in green and australian futures pointing to a pop of 1.3% at the open but we are also tracking the reaction to china. we see that most in the g10 fx space. the dollar strength is coming through. the kiwi dollar down zero point 9%. the aussie dollar -- we can see the moves happening on an hourly basis. you can see the move weakening this morning after the biggest jump on friday in more than 11 years driven by the hope in
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markets that we could see a pipit away from covid zero policies. some traders thinking where there is smoke there is fire and we could see some sort of changes but still this morning reflecting a little bit of disappointment with china sticking but that's covid zero. >> it looks like we are set for more volatility given the extreme amount of -- we saw last week. perhaps this is unsurprising. we knew the chinese government was not likely to steer away from the covid zero policy. we are watching march for the next series of meetings. we saw the yuan dropping at the start of what looks like another volatile week for markets. this approach is dampening the optimism that beijing may be behind the scenes working to ease restrictions. it tells you the amount of money
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that has been sitting by the sidelines waiting for a catalyst and an opportunity to rally back into hong kong and mainland assets. >> it is amazing to me how people do not want to give up on that. there is just enough chatter that people are hearing things from inside the government. the jobs report was very transparent right out in front of everyone. i want to look at a chart of wages. i mentioned some numbers, wages that people thought showed some signs of a slowdown though payrolls beat the forecast by a long margin, they are down to 4.7% year-over-year from 5% year over year and that is some people say the beginning of the slowdown in wages and that is what could change the mind of the fed. we heard from fed officials on friday that they are looking for a 5% or more. at was tom barker from the
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richmond fed and that was echoed by larry summers, a bloomberg regular on wall street week telling david westin that he thinks the fed could go a lot higher than fed. --then 5%. >> i am moving upwards my view of the possibilities of the terminal rate. it is not what i would expect but it would not surprise me if the terminal rate reached 6% or more. >> again, these four fed officials, larry summers echoing what jay powell said. the jobs report may have some hints that somewhere down the road they will get there but not yet. haidi: we are dealing with the world's most aggressive and synchronized monetary policy tightening in 40 years. it seems we are entering a new phase with central banks prepared to slow the rate of increases.
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let's get more on how this impacts markets. let's bring in mliv contributor garfield reynolds and stephen engle. this idea that we are getting into a messy period where expectations and delivery from central banks is not necessarily matching up. what does that mean for bond markets in particular? garfield: i think it means bond markets become more nuanced. we are seeing signs of that in australia where the 10 year yield went from being 90 basis points above treasuries to being about 30 basis points below in a short amount of time. an extraordinary relative rally. we are likely to see -- there is a strong chance that treasury yields keep on moving higher and
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higher but they might not take some of the yields with them to the same extent and then what you see breaking out as part of how strong the currency moves were last week. yes, the china covid situation was part or was the immediate trigger but the underlying point is the u.s. dollar even before that happened had lost momentum. u.s. yields were still rising and rising further relative to the rest of the world and yet the dollar was losing momentum and that speaks to this fracturing of what was a monolithic lifting all boats situation when it comes to interest rates. haidi: this china covid pivot story is intriguing. the markets quite clearly wanted
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to believe in a certain narrative which i think a lot of china wishes was never delivered. >> we saw investors last week hoping this would be a pivot point in china's covid zero, three years long almost. the markets responded upwards. as we come into monday and after a weekend of more than 40 200 u.k.'s is countrywide on saturday, there is growing chorus now all of a sudden, more of an about-face with the authorities saying they are going to unswervingly, i love that word, stick to covid zero policies and the covid curbs. i will read exactly what the spokesperson said. previous practices have proved
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that our prevention and control plans -- measures are completely correct. completely correct. how is the market going to digest that? we are heading into the winter in china and cases potentially could go higher. kathleen: all i can think of is the markets did not want to believe the fed was ready to pivot and they don't want to believe that china cannot possibly move off covid but what it means for the markets is the question. we saw what happened to the golden dragon index last week. will that cool off? garfield: it would be surprising if it didn't. we have had some fairly strong moves in fx markets this morning. we had the aussie on the kiwi dropping by more than 1% or so. the offshore yuan tanking. none of that bodes well for
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china markets or risk assets in general. it really is extraordinary -- we already had a rumor of reopening and then hopes dashed last week but it did not stop people from piling in again and quite possibly it will not stop them from piling in later when understandably somewhere within the chinese authorities there will be a discussion of an exit plan from covid zero just as there might occasionally be discussions with the bank of japan about an exit from yield control. but neither policy is on the verge of abandoning those tools because they have a very strong belief those tools are the best ones for the job. if you started to bet on ending covid zero, you need a thick skin indeed. kathleen: we will be speaking
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-- garfield reynolds and stephen engle, thank you. vonnie quinn has a first word headlines. >> facebook's parent meta is reportedly planning to begin layoffs that will affect thousands of workers from this week. the wall street journal reports job cuts could be announced as soon as wednesday with employees told the council non-essential travel. this comes as meta struggles with growing losses. after laying off half of the company on friday twitter is asking dozens of workers to come back. sources say some were laid off by mistake while others were likable for management realized they were needed to achieve futures wanted by elon musk. the new york times says twitter is also holding off on paid verification checkmarks for users until after this week's elections. president biden's comments on
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coal have angered a key senate ally days before the midterms. wearing his camping trip biden vowed to close call plants. joe manchin called the remarks divorced from reality. the white house said the comments were twisted to suggesting meaning that was not intended. former u.s. president donald trump has suggested an announcement is imminent that he will make another white house run. sources say he is tentatively planning to confirm his campaign next week after the u.s. midterm elections. on the weekend he used a rally to attack ron desantis who is widely considered his current top opponent in the republican field. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, u.n. climate talks kick off with discussions on how rich countries can help pay for the damage from global warming elsewhere.
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we speak with shannon o'neill but first we preview the trade week ahead with k2 asset management head george boubouras when it comes to china. this is bloomberg. ♪ what will you do? will you make something better? create something new? our dell technologies advisors can provide you with the tools and expertise you need to bring out the innovator in you.
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inflation reading on thursday and implications for rate hikes. china's october trade and foreign reserves data will drop on monday. economists are expecting a lackluster third quarter gdp print from hong kong as the city struggles to reopen. we also get indonesia gdp data. sales may be muted on friday in hong kong amid a slowing economy and ongoing covid restrictions. alibaba kicked off efforts to spur demand. haidi: inflation is the key issue when it comes -- or one of the top issues when it comes to american voters heading to the polls. that will decide control of congress and the 36 governors. democrats risk losing a majority. we will also be watching earnings coming from softbank,
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disney, nintendo. reports will indicate how these big chipmakers are faring under the cloud of washington's curbs on semiconductor technology. kathleen: with us now is george boubouras. from the market reaction on friday, it is easy to understand that you your yield getting up to 4.8%, the reaction from stocks is more puzzling. across the board it is considered a strong report even though wages are slowing down a bit. four fed officials echoed jay powell. why are stocks rallying? george: hello. it is all about the 75 basis points rate hike means fewer hikes going forward. it means the increases will happen at a decreasing rate. payrolls -- a 30% slow down.
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average early earnings are also softening but in absolute terms the last three numbers have to reinforce the u.s. economy is resilient and the labor market is resilient hence the tightening. the equity market -- china is predictive on future earnings. energy is positive. [indiscernible] the optimism at the top of the rate hike cycle for up to 5% for fed funds rates. the pulse of economic activity is slowing but resilient. kathleen: is there some sense,
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there is so much cash on the sidelines that people want to buy and as long as they know we are getting close to the end of the worst and it will not get that bad you might as well buy stocks. george: depending, three years forward you will be buying stocks and all you asians are very compelling. -- and markets are very compelling. having said that, most pension funds require a manager to be fully invested so we are trying to find out performing sectors from energy to utilities to materials. there is some powder on the side . with a high discount rate it is going to be a high hurdle to be measuring future earnings and their outlook and valuations. having said all of that again, valuations in the u.s. are
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compelling. valuations in most other markets are also compelling but it is where you want to be. haidi: after the week that was, is china still compelling? there is a hope and a prayer by some segments of the market that we are losing the change in the covid zero market. take a look at the performance, best week since 2015 in the asian hscei. do you start to fade the tree until we get something more convincing from the leadership -- do you start to fade the trade until we get something more convincing from the leadership? george: active fund managers have been underweight because of the uncertainty with regulation. valuations for equities in china are extraordinarily low and very compelling.
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but there is too much risk associated with it. you are getting short squeezes of rallies. one day beijing will roll out some policy and it is hard to verify when they will stop the covid zero policy. for obvious reasons we know the best stimulus package beijing can do when they are ready is to open up their internal economy for internal travel and that will be a powerful driver of economic activity and go with beijing fiscal policy and social housing and infrastructure as well as the pboc cutting rates at the sink time. we are wary about china -- beijing regulation. the housing bubble has to be addressed. haidi: when it comes to currencies, dollars strength is the big story. we see the yuan weakness
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resuming as well. will that be the biggest driver into 2023? george: u.s. dollars strength has been a wrecking ball for a lot of emerging economies and developed economies year to date. the macro traders have benefited. it is difficult to find a narrative why the u.s. dollar will be sustainable. you will have rallies of commodities. aussie, indonesia, canadian for example will be rallying on the risk on with materials at the back of it. u.s. dollars strength to be maintaining these broad levels -- the bulk of the appreciation has happened but it will not happen to the same degree and it will hold the gains. once they do a 50 basis point
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rate hike, that will be a dollar index plateau to weakness and that is a good sign for the world and for risk on sometime in 2023. haidi: always great to have you with us, george boubouras from k2 asset management joining us out of melbourne. the signs of stresses for big tech as meta-is reportedly set to start layoffs this week. we get you up-to-date with the latest from the twitter staff after being asked being asked to return. this is bloomberg. ♪
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su keenan joins us. su: meta-reportedly getting ready to lay off what could be thousands of workers, one of the biggest layoffs yet we have seen. the wall street journal reports that job cuts could be announced as soon as wednesday. that is when employees could be notified. the company has already told employees to cancel non-essential travel according to the report and the layoffs would come as meta-struggles with growing losses while investing and developing its metaverse business. stock is down some 73% this year. and a lot of this has to do with the fact that the investment in the metaverse, aside from the other factors, has not gone over well with shareholders. meta-will likely be smaller in 2023 then it was this year. that is a message mark zuckerberg gave in his recent earnings call and he urged investors to stay with him as he
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piles money into the metaverse concept. it has proven unpopular with investors who are not buying into mark zuckerberg's plea to hang with him and that it will ultimately pay off. haidi: when it comes to twitter, there is more chaos and confusion. there is staff that is now being asked to come back. we will get more details on that part of the story later. let's get more after the break on "bloomberg daybreak: australia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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era of divided government with polls showing democrats losing control of the house and possibly the senate. annmarie hordern explains what is at stake. >> joe biden is hoping that the democrats can pick up seats in the house and senate in tuesday's election. democrats could hope they can run on abortion. republicans only need to pick up five seats to take control. polls indicate they should do that easily. they will probably pick up more. the senate is a tossup with 35 seats being contested. right now the chamber is divided 50/50 with democrats in the
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majority because vice president harris can vote in the case of a tie. the senate could come down to close races in diverse states including pennsylvania, georgia, and nevada. it is possible we will not know who has one for a couple days. annmarie hordern, bloomberg, washington. kathleen: let's stick with the midterms and bring in annabelle droulers to see what market strategists are saying. annabelle: that's right, kathleen, gaming out possible scenarios, they found based on analysis of implied probabilities of certain betting odds, there is a 50% chance republicans will win both houses of congress. in terms of what that means for the dollar, they say it could be a negative for the dollar in the shorter term because we will have the current administration sort of hamstrung. unable to make big policy decisions. they say that when you look
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longer-term, if we still see continued support for the republican, this could end up being a net positive because they have the experience with donald trump's tax cuts. also, the jobs act of 2017. these things could be dollar positive long-term. they have been looking at other probabilities. this is what they see as the second-most likely scenario, republicans winning the house and democrats retaining the senate, a 40% chance of that happening. they say that would be mildly positive for the dollar given president biden -- giving president biden more time to work on policy actions. he has been more hawkish on china than expected. he is trying to issue in a crackdown on chinese access to advanced chipmaking technologies. these are areas he could continue to focus on that would be dollar positive. haidi: what a week for chinese
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assets. is there more volatility to come? annabelle: that is what we are hearing. goldman sachs have been looking at signs that led to the optimism that we could see a policy pivot. the first was several regions abandoning the 48 hour negative pcr tests proof needed to travel on public transport. there was an article in the people's daily early in november that toned down the impact of long covid to minimize the implications. there was also the german chancellor olaf scholz that gave a press conference saying the mrna vaccine would be available for foreigners in the country and different cities and regions are making new makeshift hospitals, either in facilities or repurchasing existing ones to handle asymptomatic patients. these are all positive factors,
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leading investors to anticipate change on the horizon. goldman sachs is sticking with the view that it will take a few months. there are preparations, but it takes time to take effect. there are a few reasons they are still sticking with their theory that we will see reopening in the second quarter of next year. first, that the elderly vaccination rate is still too low. we are also in the middle of flu season. then also, that preparations do take time for facilities to be ready to have treatment options, not just vaccines, made available. these are the sorts of things they are focusing on, saying this is the reason they need to keep a covid policy for now in place. haidi: let's get the first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: china says it will unswervingly stick with covid zero, dashing hopes for ending
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restrictions soon. health officials said in a weekend briefing that the measures are completely correct and needed to fight outbreaks. officials will also ask local governments to correct excessive control measures. online speculation over a move away from covid zero last week helped boost stocks. support for an investigation into unspecified violations by a deafening -- a deputy governor. fang's name was no longer on the pboc website of top executives yesterday. the ruling communist party's determination to fight corruption is unswerving as well. you and -- you and in egypt a deal how rich countries can pay for damage caused by local warming elsewhere. industrialized nations repeatedly blocked efforts to add this to the agenda despite demand from developing
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countries. credit suisse is planning fresh job cuts starting next week, adding to dismissals that have already started. the lender is expected to notify mostly support staff and investment advisors. in the asia-pacific some wealth teams could see cuts of 10% headcount. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quick take powered by more than 2700 journalists and anaylsts in over 120 countries. . kathleen: berkshire hathaway took a 960 $2 million hit on insurance in the third quarter. auto insurer geico absorbed in the biggest loss. bloomberg finance reporter max race joined us from new york. what were the standup elements for this? max: thank you for having me. i think leading on insurance makes a lot of sense because it was definitely very weak this quarter, a result of a few things. first, obviously, hurricane en
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and other --ian and other related catastrophes. berkshire took less of a hit on the hurricane that expected but it was still a tough quarter for underwriting similar to q3 and q to from last year when we saw similar effects from hurricane ida. auto underwriting is really difficult now across the sector, across peer groups. you are seeing them really struggle to, assertive, turn any profit. geico has not been profitable since q2 of last year. then, you look at operating earnings. this includes the insurance business. also, other aspects of the business empire over there at berkshire hathaway. the numbers are pretty solid. earnings were down at the railroad. for other businesses and investments, they performed decently well and they were able to record an operating earnings gain of about 20% compared with the same time last year.
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so, essentially, the way i think about this quarter is while insurance was weak, much of the company is doing what it is supposed to do and trying to navigate a really high inflation environment. haidi: given berkshire hathaway, warren buffett's strategy, his theory of investing, when you look at this result, how the portfolio looks now, when you see where the stock market is in its cycle, no one knows if it has reached the bottom or not, what do you expect to see, if anything, in terms of changes the way investments are arranged now? max: great question. the big thing about berkshire is it perhaps has not been as active in the market as people expected through the pandemic with the big exception being q1 of this year when they spent about $42 billion in acquisitions. looking up -- at how they will add more visibility to the sector, 13f comes out in a week or so. they increased holdings of
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occidental petroleum. they are a big fan of that company. there is speculation they may be interested in buying it outright. simply, there is not really a lot to ask separately, there is not really a lot to say about the equity strategy. they were a net buyer by about $3.7 billion. that's not super crazy. it's not a crazy figure. it's not a crazy change. kathleen: that was max reyes on berkshire betting on auto insurance. next, the council on foreign affairs explains how nations are going backward on climate pledges and efforts as energy security risk rises.
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get ready for jargon. first, loss and damage. under the paris agreement signed in 2015 rich countries promised to pay for losses and damages caused in poorer countries by climate change. however, until now, countries have not discussed who will pay, how much they will pay, and how the money would be transferred. with one third of pakistan underwater, only a few months ago, the debate around this is expected to be a hard one at cop 27. second, africa. as the country that contributed to lease to climate change. african needs will be met through financial grants, technology partnerships, and bilateral deals. expect lots of announcements called memorandum of
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understanding. third, is private capital moving as expected? even though cop meetings have traditionally been about government officials meeting counterparts, climb -- private companies have been playing a bigger role. that is because moving the world towards net zero emissions will require as much as $4 trillion of investment every year. the vast majority of the money will come from private players. the biggest financial institutions with more than $1 trillion of financial assets under management are committed to moving capital towards the goal of net zero emissions by 2050. at cop 27, there will be a big focus on sounding out how they are progressing. for all bloomberg coverage of cop 27, visit bloomberg.com/green. haidi: our next guest says the ukraine war is making many nations go backward when it comes to climate as energy security takes priority. shannon o'neill is a vice
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president and senior fellow for latin american studies at the council on foreign relations. it is interesting, depending on who you speak to end their perspective, some are saying this just reiterates how desperately we need to, very quickly, accelerate the energy transition. others are saying it shows we cannot transition too quickly away from a world that still relies on fossil fuels. how damaging has the supply chain issues and the energy disruption we have seen from the ongoing conflict in ukraine been for climate change? coming up on >> obviously, it is a huge issue as many countries in europe and elsewhere are struggling to make sure they have enough energy for this winter and the months to come. i think the answer is somewhere in between, yes to both things. yes, short-term, this is forcing countries to go back, to use coal, to use other fuels as they try to keep the lights on and their houses heated. it will also speed to the energy transition.
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many countries are trying to diversify energy portfolios and get away from single sources of oil and gas and they will turn to renewables faster than they would have before. annabelle: when it comes to cop 27, the big discussion and debate, a request floated for decades now, reparations for industrialized, wealthy countries to be paid to poor countries now dealing with the repercussions of climate change. do you think this could lead to payouts? is there financing that could come out of this that would be helpful? shannon: this will be the big discussion. it is not officially on the agenda, but i imagine it will be part of every conversation. advanced industrial economies promised $100 billion and we have not seen anywhere near those pledges met. there is also trillions of dollars in private sector investment, est funds, others out there that could really spur the movement to a green
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transition across the world including emerging markets. there is money there. it is about, how do you create the vehicles and mechanisms to get it out to help all of these countries make the transition we need to see. kathleen: can you answer that question yourself? how do you create the mechanisms. and the enforcement. it is fine for people to say, we will help. but for countries are saying your commitment now is zero and zero is not enough. shannon: there is a space for governments to crowd in private sector money, whether it is loan guarantees, starting private companies, using multinational organizations like the world bank that have been on the sides of this, not get lending into climate change issues. i think there is a space for public or multilateral money to bring in some private investment. they are just beginning to look at that. i imagine it will be a huge issue in discussions happening in the forum now.
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kathleen: one government leader in a spot light now is lula da silva, the new leader of brazil. i am fascinated with the idea that he could make an alliance of rain forest nations, something he wants to see with brazil, indonesia, and the. -- the democratic republic of congo. as he takes office again, some of his supporters feel very strongly about climate change. is he somebody that can lead the way forward? shannon: this is a really interesting moment for brazil because you have an outgoing president that was very anti-climate change and had an anti-environmental approach and made brazil a pariah. but, brazil has long been a climate leader, defending the amazon, having a very clean energy matrix. as we have seen lula come back, in his campaign he talked a lot
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about saving the rainforest, coming back and being a leader on the environmental scene. you look at his transition team that will come into office january 1, 2023. you see him taking steps. he will attend the cop as will the outgoing president separately. it's an interesting space. brazil could perhaps regain leadership as these issues go forward. haidi: it sounds like you are somewhat optimistic when it comes for brazil and the ability of the leadership to reinstate climate and environmental credentials. will have to come at the expense of other climate prep -- pledges around the country shannon: we will see a big challenge in brazil. rhetoric will change. but implementation is very difficult. brazil is a huge country. many government agencies, policing forces, monitoring has
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been eroded over the last four years under a president who does not want those different agencies to work. his supporters were some of the ranchers and others involved in deforestation. there will be a challenge in brazil. i do see that brazil has a space, particularly among emerging markets, developing worlds, the global south, they have always had a leadership role. lula himself was one of the founders of bricks. there is a role for them to come back on the global stage and not just demand that the industrial world help those who have not created climate change with funds, but also, perhaps, find a negotiation, find a space for this to be reality. it remains to be seen. will have a lot of problems at home to deal with, the end of covid, recovering the economy, other challenges of inequality. but i think the environment on an international stage, this is an issue dear to his heart that he will be focused on. haidi: shannon o'neill, the vice president on the council of
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foreign relations talking cop 27 and climate. breaking news area abbott is a company -- apple is a company reassessing demand into the key holiday season. apple is expecting lower iphone 14 pro and 14 promax shipments and they are working closely with the buyers to return to normal. they are expecting the shipments to be delayed, given the update, when it comes to iphone 14 pro and 14 promax, particularly going into the holiday season. there have been disruptions when it comes to iphone supply in china affected by covid zero. foxconn for seven days with the area under lockdown. we are seeing iphone sales slow more broadly, particularly in china. apple's stock has been under pressure giving earnings missed, particularly when it comes to handsets and the crucial service elements. more to come. this is bloomberg.
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kathleen: the latest business flash headlines. elliott investment management is planning'to tender shares to phillip morris says $16 billion takeover offer for sweetest -- swedish match. backing from elliott leaves the swedish tobacco giant ready to do do the takeover. they have the potential to block the deal.
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westpac probably came in line with analyst expectations as rising interest rates and cost reduction supported profitability. cash earnings dropped to 3.4 billion u.s. dollars in the year to september. it is part of a global trend of higher borrowing costs that bolstered lending. haidi: all mail boards quietly returned to australia's benchmark stock index. let's bring in amy braintree. amy: 12 months ago, if we were talking about these we would be talking about progress. there were zero companies on the s&p with no female directors on their boards. now we have four companies on the index with 0% women representation on their boards. they are all mining companies. capricorn metals, core lithium, and de grey mining.
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de grey lost their soul female director after she resigned. last month. the company says they are -- they do have diversity requirements. and, they are looking at it. also, that they have two female executives in their leadership team. the other companies did not come according to their websites. kathleen: what industries are tending to do the best when it comes to getting women in the important board seats? amy: kathleen, look, there are companies doing well. predominately, poor performing companies from the mining industry. black moss -- blackmores for example has 67% female representation on its board and fortescue metals has over 60% representation. more broadly, the goal is for
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30% female representation on boards. we can see a number of companies failing to achieve that. these four minors have been relatively new additions to the australian index added over the past few months due to rebalancing of the asx 200. haidi: amy bainbridge there. the u.s. jobs report beat consensus again. the dollar is on a deep dive. we discussed where to for the greenback. we also speak to hotels and resorts now that the country has reopened. this is bloomberg.
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