tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg November 7, 2022 7:00am-8:00am EST
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>> the economy is not responding to the fed's tightening, so they have got a lot more work to do. >> signals we would expect to see after this much tightening from the fed, they are just not there right now. >> you could get a terminal rate if inflation does not abate. >> reverse policy tightening. >> have not seen the fed raise rates so rapidly before. we have not had coronavirus economy or inflation like this for over 40 years.
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>> this is "bloomberg surveillance." johnson popped live from new york city, good morning, this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am jonathan ferro. futures on the s&p closer to .5%. america decides, and cpi's around the corner. tom: america decides, cpi, equally as strong as this election we will see in the next two days. results coming out after tuesday. the market today shows that indecision, if you will, in decision 20. jonathan: question of the week, if you could have the result of one thing right now, would it be midterms or inflation america? lisa: inflation america, cpi for the next 2, 3 months. it would be the outcome of the election for the next 2, 3 years. the near term rally is really being driven by the cpi for
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longer, fiscal, and just political backdrop. tom: the distillate here is good luck, less fiscal -- is gridlock, less fiscal stimulus. jonathan: is that positive in the longer term? if you cannot deliver a countercyclical fiscal buffer when you need one, is that positive next year? that will affect inflation and bond yields, and inflation -- it is a lot of questions and i have not got a clue. lisa: we do not have the answers, and people say it is a technical bear market rally that will have legs, because why not? people try to come up with an explanation for this price action, good luck, have a good time. it is not lucid in terms of the narrative. jonathan: thank you, lisa.
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yields look like this on a 10-year. 4.1356. yields last week much higher, particularly on the two-year. 40 basis point range last week. now back down to about 4.68. tom: i suggest all the fixed income data is still elevated. it has come back a little bit from one stay through friday, but not all that much. jonathan: it all comes down to cpi later this week. positive .2% real-world dollar. lisa: u.s. is facing a serious inflationary wave, but so is europe and the rest of the world. this is why it is hard to came out what the implication will be in terms of the market narrative following a cpi report. 9:00 a.m., we have european finance ministers meeting in brussels, front and center for what they're talking about, too puritan .7 percent cpi rate for
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the euro zone. where is that headed? what can they do it fiscal policy responses broken, essentially? you cannot flood this market with money and solve the problem, simply because money is a problem when it comes to how quickly inflation has been accelerated. we get a host of fed speak. susan collins -- susan collins around 3:40 p.m., tom barton speaking around 6:00 p.m. how will they talk about the conflicting demands -- dynamic between employment and fighting inflation? if it is not a big issue right now, when will it become an issue? when will they start thinking about a dual mandate rather than a single or medicaid -- mandate? earnings lift last week, talking about cutting jobs we keep hearing this from big tech companies, cutting jobs. and there is the whole elon musk excitement at twitter, cutting half the jobs.
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he is now asking some people to come back because they were fired in error and he needs to get some of them back in. jonathan: that is what happens when you make cuts quickly. thank you. messy, tom. tom: i do not have any punditry to add to it other than messy describes it. jonathan: i got this message on twitter for me gentleman called nick, the fed speak is as unified as members of the kardashian at a restaurant. fed speak in america. do you know who the kardashians are? tom: no, what is the illusion to choosing a restaurant? jonathan: they are not going to be on the same page, tom. tom: are there multiple kardashians or just one? jonathan: michael show joint -- michael shaoul joins us now from
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marketfield investment. i will skip that one. [laughter] would it be cpi or the midterms right now? michael: i think midterms. i was thinking back to 2010 when we had a 1-2 event, as well, the terms and qap within 20 where hours, and i was felt the midterms is what got the market going. i think markets prefer gridlock generally to one party having control of all the levers of power, particularly when that party has an aggressive agenda, whether it was trump as he was in 2017, 2018, or the biden administration today. if the news of the midterms give you a sense for the democratic agenda being put on hold for a couple years, forget your point
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about no countercyclical policy, but i think the market would be happy to put doubt to one side. tom: with the election, does it change fed policy, which tempers the market towards a bull market because fed policy adapts to a new world? michael: perhaps. there is no doubt the fiscal cliff did impact bernanke in 2013. i think in the current environment, the fed is very sort of one minded. it feels it needs to deal with inflation. i am sure it understands it made a big mistake 18 months, two years ago, in not understanding where inflation was going. and i do not think it affects policy in early 2023, but i think there would be a point where the fed may be left as the only lever of loosening, if we ever get a point in the economic cycle where that is required. seems quite distant today.
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lisa: every week feels like a big week where we get a big data point that helps shape the narrative for us with inflation and the fed fight. how has your belief in terms of what is going to outperform, how you should basically invest, how has it evolved as we have gone the labor market that remains high, a fed that is willing to go further than people ever thought was possible, and only seem to be increasing their longer-term forecasts? michael: these things do not happen that often, but it still looks very normal, looks like a cycle where the fed left it out of control, like we saw in the 1970's, and that requires a lot of catch up and leads to overshoot. to me, the big story behind the fed of 2022 is the sectors which have done better and the sectors which have done worse, and it looks as if technology leadership is over. it went down a lot and has not balanced a lot. i think that really matters, because you now have a sector that dominates market cap in the s&p 500, dominates active files.
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incoming into the last sort of 10 weeks of the year, they have to decide what they want to do -- i cannot believe we have got 10 weeks left if i think about it, i think we could rotate out of tech. it is not great news for the s&p 500 medium-term, because technology sort of dominates that index. but it might be pretty good news for the sectors that get some of the money that comes out of tech. lisa: we have tech leadership though. do we see gains at a broad index level? michael: you could have a market in which certain sectors do really well and which certain global markets do ok. it is very difficult for the s&p 500 at the index level to make gains and take you back through that all the time. i think it is possible to make money in this market. jonathan: this raises massive questions for the generation of investors that have been told by their advisors at home to stay
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long u.s. equities over a certain time period because they deliver robust returns, and history shows that. michael: it does, but it could be a long time. took 13 years between 2000 and 2013 for the s&p to get cleanly through 1350. so you are living off your dividends, and that felt like a long time. during those 13 years, there were multiple opportunities to make money. a huge global bull market in the early 2000's, strong commodity bull market during that time. but if your money -- if you simply sat in the s&p, that was 13 years. jonathan: it is a big conversation that needs to happen a lot more, the prospect of the last decade for a massive chunk of the equity market. you cannot answer within a degree of confidence, but do you think we are underestimating the risk of that given the
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conversation barely happens? michael: i think the passive investor avoids the s&p 500 or nasdaq in november, december last year, is in for years evermore's. i do not think it will be a rate place to be. it will start with a beating, which we have had this year. it will take an awful long time, i believe, for the s&p 500 at the index level to cleanly get through its peak of 2021. other portions of the global equity market, including portions of the u.s. equity market, i feel much better about. jonathan: michael shaoul, do you want to feel with that part of the market you feel good about? michael: energy has been a big story this year, and i would expect that through the end of the year. at some point, the dollar will peak and global equities will be investable again, no question. jonathan: going to squeeze that in. big call from michael. he is ahead of us.
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tom: about coming down to low single-digit returns. jonathan: good to catch up. from new york city, futures up .6%. cpa around the corner. bramo says it is going to be a big week. it is going to be a big week. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i am lisa mateo. the u.s. and russia reportedly have held private talks on ways to avoid escalating the war in ukraine. according to the wall street journal, a peace settlement was not the goal of the discussions. the biden administration was said to have worn the kremlin against nuclear. nations must pay their share to help poorer nations do with climate change. emmanuel macron is attending the -- climate change summit in egypt.
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world leaders will attempt to maintain momentum to battle planet warming emissions. in china, exports and imports unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than two years. overseas, consumers bought less, while demand in china was hurt, covid zero controls and a housing slump. brazilian experts have been a major supporter china's recovery in the past two years. twitter is asking dozens of employees it laid off last week to please come back. elon musk cut close to 40 -- 37 hundred employees last week to cut costs. employees learn some were laid off by mistake. management realized they may be needed to build new features elon musk wants. and apple expect to make at least 3 million fewer iphone 14 handsets than originally planned this year, due primarily to softer demand for the iphone 14 and 14 plus. apple and its suppliers aim to make 87 million of the devices
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schip. >> the loss of the number as expected, and as highlighted by these polls, how much is donald trump still be front runner as far as setting a tone as he hits a path toward 2024, and how much does it move beyond him for these issues you are talking about, attracting a number of people to the gop. > just this weekend, a rally showing he was double digit way ahead of governor ron desantis. we have a new nickname for that individual, as well as former president mike pence. he is the clear leader at the moment of this republican party, and that is why you see a number of republicans want him to come to their rallies, right? he was with marco rubio over the weekend in florida. he will be with j.d. vance, the
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republican hopeful in ohio, he is for sure the leader right now the question is, the next two years, does he make the final come back and is he the name on the ticket, or does he end up making kingmaker? jon: final question from us, how much does it take to get a result? >> it could potentially take until september if georgia goes into a runoff, so you might consider we might not know the makeup of the setting until just before christmas, but, you know, it could take anywhere from 24, 48 hours, even a week. nicole: unreal. ah, thank you so much, down in d.c.. t.k., you look at the polls, it looks like georgia has gone for a runoff. tom: and i would suggest, over the weekend, the polls have tightened up over the weekend. that is a major message monday morning, because it is not where we were thursday. jon: one single name in the
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premarket to look at, and i delete that will talk about it, apple down by 1.9%. apple came out yesterday evening and said demand for the iphone was still robust but ultimately because of difficulties producing out of china, they have got to clip supply at those sites.we are reporting that actually the supply issue is one thing. they have also got a demand issue, and they are putting a number on an over as well, tom. pool anticipates 3 million fewer iphone handsets than anticipated . the reduction is primarily due to softer demand for the iphone 14, 14+ model, cheaper alternatives for the high-end pro offerings as well. that is our reporting this morning. tom: yeah. it is they are, and i think there is some confusion over this between the high-end models, which i am speaking as an amateur of the pro and pro maxima versus what you said come it is confusing the other 14's, and i don't
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understand the distinction. jon: what we heard from the company, lisa, and supply will be hit, the event -- but demand will be good. it is not all about supply. lisa: especially given the chip story we have been talking about. why are we not seeing a demand forecast from apple? if people are not demanding as much of these goods, wise and it down? maybe it is? jon: down by 1.9%. futures up by about .5% on the s&p 500. we are doing ok. from new york city this morning, good morning to you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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john-paul: live from new york city this monday morning, the morning to you. the price actions trying to fill in on the games, on the nasdaq -- 500 up .4%. last week, they nasdaq 100 staging a recovery on friday but ultimately down the week by about six percentage points. going back to january this year,
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that was a big move lower, held down by what happened at the bond market, a move with more than 20 basis points last week on the two-year, and a range very close to 480 at the low, very close to 440, and right now somewhere in between, but the two-year at 2797. looking to the fed speed, lisa went through that earlier. i wonder how undivided they will be. no division from the ecb, european central bank, and the governor of the central bank, to be precise, talking more interest rate hike, tom, even with economic weakness on the agenda. tom: i just don't get it. governor bailey of the united kingdom said the other day looking at the two-year recession, how you raise rate? jonathan: they are looking to do it, tom, and we can keep discussing it. let's get you some single names. we can do that with lisa. lisa: hey, jon. you were talking about apple. we can start there. if want to go to what he was talking about moments ago on our
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show, it does not see tech leadership reasserting itself anywhere in the near future. what does it do. how do we see that priced in and reflect it by earnings estimates? apple is one of the main outliers when it comes to. a more positive outlook. . here's one of the other tech names. what does the latest information about them, paring back the production of the iphone 14 say about how long they can remain insulated? what we are seeing in the semiconductor space and more broadly in text, and the shares are down two point 1%. everyone wanted to have home cooking kits in order to create some variety when they were at home all the time. blue apron is down 17% almost, as they remove guidance for the full year because things are disappointing. and lyft reporting earnings after the bell. they are one of the ones cutting jobs, 13% of their staff they said last week. their shares are up just about 2%, but another one that perhaps
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will face off with some serious competition with uber, as the world gets to be a more discretionary place. meta cutting thousands of jobs, tom, those shares are lower by 70% so far this year. that is shocking to me. this is pretty much the poster child of a tech bubble that has popped. tom: meta, facebook, 80,000 shares to how much of a talking laying off? lisa: thousands. people are looking for some sort of paring back. mark: joining us now -- tom: joining us now, making green -- megan greene. i look at this linkage of economics on the heart of it by one source is rents, housing,
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mortgage makes up 33% of the family budget, the monthly budget or family singles, whatever. how big is the inflation story wrapped around housing costs? megan: housing is a huge weight in the inflation basket, no matter which basket you are looking at, it feeds through with a pretty big lag. i think housing inflation will continue to feed through to the overall basket. i think that's when we get inflation later this week, i think it could come down a bit from last month, but it will still be really high. tom: in the academic world, and the feather world, should we partition out rent and look at other disinflation or tendencies
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or do you have to look like a carbonaceous -- core basis in the aggregate? >> i think you have to look at everything. i think because rent is such a big piece of the household spending, it is important. of course, inflation is a deeply personal experience. if you own your house and you faded off, you are not that affected by housing inflation, even if the overall inflation figures high. whereas you got lots of metro costs -- lots of medical costs that would really. i think we need to look at all different kinds of household inflation. that includes the pc. an cpi. i think going to look at measures of underlying inflation. i think the new york fed's underlying inflation gauges pretty interesting. it is really good at
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predicting inflation points and it suggests that peak inflation is behind us. >> where are we heading? how long will it take before we get to 2%? or is that just a pipe dream? >> i think inflation will come down over the course of the next year. will it hit 2% by the end of next year, i don't think so. i think very few economists are asking what the world and what the economy will look like when the dust is finally settled when we don't have war or pandemic. i think we will still be stuck in this secular stagnation environment with a glut of global savings. if you think about the main structural factors driving global inflation, as things like technological inflation, low worker power. those things have all been turbocharged by the pandemic. the only can that has not been
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turbocharged is globalization. i don't think we are de-globalizing, i think we are just globalizing more slowly. there is one way i could be totally wrong about all this. that's if we are really serious about the green transition. i think that answer is different in the u.s. than the u.s.. we are going to be pricing in the cost of carbon. i don't think we are that serious about it, particularly in the u.s.. >> how does the particular dropped up factor into all of this? how do you play that out in the inflation outlook and honestly just in terms of growth in the longer-term? >> if you look at fiscal spending and this goes for the u.s. and also the u.k. and europe, if there's a drive for austerity, that's going to push us further into recession. that will bring inflation down. whether you consider that a future or bug is up to you.
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it will be disinflation every. the second piece of the elections is the implications for inflation get to the point i just made about the green transition. if the republicans take the house, i think we are less likely to have any major efforts for the green transition in the next couple of years. that's also less inflationary than it otherwise might have been. tom: do we understand the lift we have seen in hydrocarbons? i was just working on the bloomberg. this is easy to do on the bloomberg. the natural gas off the bottom is up 290% off the summer of first year pandemic. diesel, a gallon of diesel is up less, up 190% from that summer of 2020. do we understand in our punditry the shock we have seen in hydrocarbons? >> i think we do. a lot of it is supply and demand coming from successive shots from a war but also coming from
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opec actions. in the developed world, particularly in the u.s. and europe, we were facing an energy crisis. now it's hit us all in the face because it was accelerated. energy analysts have seen this coming for a while. most of us were ignoring it, particularly in the u.s. come because we could conveniently. oil prices are not the height. they have come up now. tom: i have forgotten this. these three charts i just looked at, natural gas, gallon of diesel, goblin of gasoline up 130% off the bottom. i think we forget the scope and scale. >> megan greene. of the crone institute. lisa went through the difficulties that company set to be having at the moment. b of a barclays covering price targets on apple this morning. deutsche bank talking about the
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risks to q1 estimates, j.p. morgan doing the same. that's the story for apple. tom: it's going to be readjustment. 164,000 employees, and a lot of that i assume is retail in the stores as well. is it unimaginable that they would go through some form of layoff like we are seemed aliso mentions facebook? >> we are seeing a ton of layoffs and tech. is it just an adjustment or is it something bigger? tom: i don't know. i didn't nft and i think it was top of the market. we made an nft at home. >> what was it? tom: an image. just sort of digitally with a surveillance. it went down in flames. >> did you sell it to anyone? tom: i did not sell it in fact. it just did not work out.
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remember spac was that twocups of coffee ago',s, that worked out? dave got weeks to adjust to figure out the game plan for january and february. >> i think they would love to see some economic stability. return lisa, right now, we are not getting that, are we? >> although maybe next year, if this concentration, we might get some consolidation. you do wonder at what point they really right sized and you could sort of understand what the future is. i keep thinking about what michael sure was saying. it's really interesting how we are seeing the end of tech leadership as we know it and there is more to come. i wonder what this looks like, given the growth, the generation of a lot of the sellers. mark: super bearish but i say this because it is a worth of
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discussion. last decades are not unheard of. if you think an asset class might goo through one of those, what does it tell you about a major weighting of the smp and just being long the index? >> their crystal begins. at what point does that shift back to europe? mark: the global story? are we going to do the global thing again? tom: when do you buy international? mark: one the dollar starts. tom: one the dollar weakens. mark: futures right now 0.4 on the smp, from new york, this is bloomberg. . >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. ukraine's president, volodymyr zelenskyy, wants iran to be published for helping russia. zelenskyy says if it wasn't for iran supplying weapons to russia, we would be closer to peace now. both -- and usa iran is using drones in the work.
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europe's largest discount airline says earning should top 995 million. >> we have seen very strong forward bookings and fairs into the october midterm. christmas looks very strong. easter already looks very strong. strong forward bookings. but we would be cautious into this winter again, again, everything looks good. what's unusual is this time i think we will go into a recession with full employment. people deem seuss -- do seem to be spending and they are traveling. >> ryanair says it will offer temper sets more seats this winter than it did before the pandemic. facebook parent metta platform says it will say startling off dozens of workers this week. according to the wall street journal, the job cuts could come early as was the. metta have been struggling with growing losses, posits been investing heavily in the linking its metaverse business. shares are down 70 3% this year. --shares are down 73% this year.
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♪ >> i am a little bit cautious. i did not want to be 100% -- at $92 per barrel because i think oil will fall and will rise to 110 we dollars per barrel. i think we are comfortable where we are. mark: michael o'leary, always great to hear from the man at ryanair. lif -- live from new york, here's the price action. going into an interesting week ahead. let's call it three basis points on a 10 year. 99.80, further on the euro side of things come up 0.1%. we are softer this morning after
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a big run recently. wti just north of 91 and down by about 0.1% on the date. tom: let's go to oil right now, brent crude jumping -- dumping over $97, $98.1. regina, if china comes back and there is the whispers of china coming back, what does kpmg think? what does a more buoyant real gdp in china, air reopening china mean from record -- from brent crude? >> i think that creates a lot more upward price pressure. the thing that is keeping us relatively mild is we continue to expect increased demand because china still has not really come back in the way we expected and we have not seen the impact of inflation, recession on consumer demand. we are already in a tight supply situation that you and i and others have talked about probably add nausea.
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if china comes back, i think that's where, as per the ceo, that's what we get into the triple digits on wti umbra. tom: you've got a huge texas and middle of the country feel. what is the mood of my big sun or chevron or the others, what is the mood of the independent oil producers out there as we go into this election? >> i don't think that we are expecting a lot of dramatic changes regardless of what the outcome of the election is. but the mood in central texas is coming can know, still pretty mid. we are achieving great financial results, in large part because we are benefiting from higher commodity prices. the days of drill baby drill and we are going to frack until the cows come home are long behind us. wall street are really was striving the oil patch, particularly in the u.s., not washington part >> let's talk about that.
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especially as you have the confusion from president biden talking about no more drilling after drop after demanding more drilling. this confusing message from washington. is there a very clear message from wall street? and if so, what is. regina: the very clear message from wall street is dividend returns, shareholder value, free cash flow, you know, focusing on return on investment. and they are not increasing drilling and production in the way that we normally would have expected to see with this kind of frothy price environment. we also, the sentiment is also affected by labor, which we have talked about this quite a bit. shortage of labor and supply chain cost increases for core materials. those are impacting the ability for the shale players to radically increase production, as well as write their sensibilities and sensitivities
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around delivering shareholder value in the wake of what the investor community is demanding. >> do you think it's will likely -- it is likely will see the 70 she dollars a barrel price tag that this administration has pinpointed at a place where they were start rebuilding the strategic pole trolling reserve? do think we have seen the lows for this year,? regina: i am bullish long-term crude price into 2023. i think that with supply continuing to build up, with things settling down in terms of the overall market, if we get a calmer sensibility of what's happening with the hostilities in russia, you know, i am hopeful that we could get back to more sensible oil prices in the mid-2023's. this commodity price environment is not good for the industry and not good for our globalization, globalization is not good for
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individual countries either. tom: what is inflation doing to our future production of oil as a general statement? you were in a meeting with kpmg. somebody goes it's not double-digit inflation but it is 7% inflation, what does that do at the margin to oil production? regina: it is bringing a lot of pressure on margin. labor costs are going through the roof. as i mentioned, there a supply chain charges. the cost of capital is going way up. what's interesting about what government has done, if you look at the inflation reduction act, as more incentives and long term liquidity that the government is providing that will continue to spur an in emerging technologies like carbon capture and sechrist ration and hydrogen, -- sequestration and hydrogen but not for hardcore fossil fuel investment commotion --
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investment, which we need in the short-term. we are sort of in a negative cycle that it does not spur the right activities and wall street is really conga shot. . mark: the midterms -- are the midterms a factor or not in the outlook for the commodity story? regina: we don't believe that it is. when you look at the legislation that was passed, the inflation reduction act, we had traditional energy companies and emerging energy companies all seeing benefit from that legislation. i think you are going to see broad-based support across the industry for what have been done. what i am hopeful for his we can decrease the level of hostility and aggression when we talk about the energy industry. without all of us working together collaboratively, we cannot solve these major technology issues. we have cop27 going on right now in egypt.
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mark: thank you. as always, of kpmg come crude down 0.9% on wti. we are down about three quarters of 1%. tom: we have to watch it just based on new slow. your one, two, oil shortage, china demand story. hour to go to lifting that gas up to seven in the united states. i have not looked at the follow on from copper with the china open off lme. we look at lme for copper. >> i just want to point out that what she said is fascinating. it does not, matter the political sphere it does not matter the political drop, that wall street has spoken. what that does to prices come that remains a debate. she says perhaps that remains not that bullish for prices. j.p. morgan, structurally, this
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is the reason why prices for crude are going to be much higher. >> this is why people are bullish, if you are able, you want -- able, you'll -- a bull, you don't want that story. the china reopening story i still don't get. doing a round turn, we've heard from the chinese over the we can from the national health commission, they are going to resolutely adhere to the strategy of covered zero. seems to be no change at the moment as a conversation committees. futures up there .4% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪
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