dani: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am dani beer -- dani burger in london

with manus cranny in dubai. manus: u.s. midterm elections kick off today with democrats facing an uphill task to hold congress. former president donald trump promises a big announcement next week. mixed markets -- stocks and futures flat as voters head to the polls. goldman outlines a plausible path for avoiding a recession. plus, emmanuel macron decries the uncertainty for climate policy brought about by russia's war in ukraine. we will be speaking exclusively to the greek prime minister live from egypt. a lot to get through, breaking news the past hour from a business -- from renault, they are going to ipo their business and they have a turnaround success. dani: it is a deep overhaul,

part of ipoing the ev business. they are splitting the ev and combustion business. they were nearly double the operating margin, it will go to nearly 10% by 2030. manus: the ceo says they have executed one of the fastest, unexpected recovery plans and they have prepared the company for growth. five divisions as well. we have other breaking news coming through on a number of different fronts. well, we have a little bit of news coming through from deutsche post. you have the front line on that. dani: it is coming through, third quarter revenue at 24 billion euros, the estimate was for 22.4 billion so that is a solid beat. there had been concerned over this business, considering we have heard not great news from

the u.s. postage businesses. they are raising their 2022 ebit and cash guidance. solid from deutsche post despite concerns about the consumer. we will be speaking with the ceo in the next hour. what have you got? manus: we will come back to that, we have some bits and pieces floating around. doubling the margin of revenue will be the big bang for the auto sector. as you said, frank appel will be with the team later on, the deutsche post ceo. these equity markets are having a tough time finding direction, are today? dani: not surprising, given the risk events on the horizon, be it the start of the midterm election today, or cpi on friday. why would you want to put risk on the table? that's what we are seeing, especially when it comes to asian equities. let me show you those. china stocks, csi 300 down one

and a third percent. consolidation after this massive for -- massive rally given covid cases on the rise in china. not surprising to see that consolidation after a rally in hong kong stocks. elsewhere, it is the story of wait and see what happens this month. look at j.p. morgan's prime brokerage services, saying hedge funds have seen some of the biggest taking the risk off the table at the fastest pace this year. likewise, losses of 1/10 of 1% for the s&p in the nasdaq. how is the cross asset picture looking? manus: we've got this constant debate whether the core cpi comes in lighter than we anticipated if that would reinvigorate the narrative that you are near peak rates? the inflation narrative coming through, it's rising this morning, 4.22 on 10 year paper. state street said the fed obsession with inflation will pivot to growth worries in the second half of next year and then you get rate cuts coming

through in the top out at 4.5%. the spread between the bottom and rates, terminal rate is amazing, 4.5 to 6%. the dollar is flat as we go into the midterms. 10 year government bond yields, in active cutie and this is where the market -- active qt into this is where the market is beginning to absorb some big signs. you saw this rise in yields in the gilt market, a test of what qt looks like. dani: too many bonds and not enough buyers. that's get to our reporters around the world, tracking the u.s. midterm elections, how asian markets are faring, and also the latest from cop 27. manus: i am excited by the theme tune but it is the midterm elections that will make a difference and the vote could tip the balance of power in washington. president biden has warned it will be tough for his democratic

party to retain control of the house. meanwhile, you have former president donald trump saying he will make a big announcement on november 15. >> this is the year we will take back the house, we will take back the senate, and we will take back america, and in 2024, most importantly, we are going to take back our magnificent white house. [applause] manus: bruce einhorn is going to track the midterms. no sleep for you overnight. what could the big announcement be apart from i'm going to run for president? is there anything else? bruce: could always be something else that he has been hinting for a long time that he wants to run. perhaps that is what he is going to announce. traditionally, after the midterm

election, that is when the presidential campaign sort of begins, that's when we start getting announcements from candidates. if he does announce he is running, that is to be expected. dani: i came armed with historical facts today. since world war ii, the president's party has lost an average 26 seats in the house and average four seats in the senate. will this be an average year? bruce: that is a good question. as we already heard, president biden is setting expectations that the chance of the democrats retaining the house is not great, in part because the democrats currently have a slim majority in the house. in 2020 even as hyden won, the democrats -- biden won, democrats lost seats in the house. there are a lot of battleground states and the senate is very

close. one thing to keep in mind is at this point tomorrow, we probably won't know and we may not know for several days because you have states like pennsylvania where there is a lot of vote by mail. they are not even allowed to begin counting those votes until the polls close. recall in 2020, it took days before we got an announcement of a winner in pennsylvania. keep in mind, this may drag on a little while before we really know controls the senate. dani: bruce, thank you. we might not have a story to trade off for the next couple of days. manus: the other thing is we saw the storming of the capital at the start of the year, will there be an acceptance of these votes when they come in? is that a risk? that has been at the core of many of these people going to the ballot -- isn't that the point? bruce: it is a good question. one of the things former

president trump pointed to in 2020 is look, we are winning, and then all of a sudden these mail-in ballots come in. we could have something similar, they call it a red mirage, or it seems like republicans are winning and then the democratic votes -- democrats tend to vote more absentee and by mail, due early voting. they come in later. there is a possibility there may be trouble, certainly. manus: as they used to say at home when i was growing up, vote early and vote often, but that is not a suggestion for anybody in the american election. bruce, thank you. bruce einhorn there. let's look at how rockets are faring, juliette saly standing by. another day, another prevarication. save me. [coughs] juliette: quite a big pickup with the tech players in korea,

japan, setting up a big move in bond yields, particularly in new zealand, 10 year expectations at a 10 home. the reopening trade in china and hong kong that we've than watching closely starting to be unwound today. tobit cases in china at a six-month high and as we know, china has said they are unswervingly sticking with covid zero. the hang seng tech index, close to a bull market in the past week or so, giving back some 2%. let's look at some of the resistance this market does face if we do see a pickup in the reopening trade. you have this march low it hasn't been able to breach, and it also hasn't been able to reach the 50 day moving average of around 3500 50 points, we are at 3300 at the moment. another 200 points go there. it looks like the rally has halted for now and it still has some technical indicators to roll back into those levels we

saw earlier in the year. dani: ok. jules, thank you. juliette saly in singapore with the latest on the hong kong rally stalling out. manus: thank you. the prime minister of the u.k. says the u.k. will triple funding to 1.5 billion pounds with so-called adaption projects by 2025. this comes as the u-turn by the pretty p.m. -- reddish prime minister on attending climate talks. let's bring in francine lacqua. i understand there is a coffee crisis, but apart from that, or has been some significant political rhetoric in the past 24 hours. what topped the agenda for you? francine: first of all, we are all today hydrated and caffeinated. yesterday not so much because the coffee places here do not open until 1:00 p.m.

that is where the world leaders come and speak. the focus, hearing from rishi sunak and emmanuel macron today, and today we hear from the president of the european commission, is the lofty ambition we can't leave anybody behind and climate change has to be the focus for the next 10 years and we have to get a net zero. the most pressing thing i heard is show me the money. i know it is a little bit crass talking about that as a climate change goal but we are talking about loss and damages. we are talking about reparation. where does the money go? if we are going to get real action, in used to be a transfer of wealth from richer countries to poor countries and there is no appetite to get it done. we spoke to some heads of state including the dutch prime minister and he said let's talk. [clears throat] i am doing a manus and losing my voice. the second question is oil.

there's not much big oil showing up here. the sovereign wealth fund will be target net zero by 2050, that's what the crown prince said. the conference is changing a low bid, -- a little bit, it is more about making the transition smoother and that has changed since glasgow last year. dani: i'm going to be honest, i thought manus was saying not that there is a coffee crisis but a coughing crisis. both of you have been working too hard. manus: i've been saved. someone went around to the kitchen. francine: chin-chin, manus. dani: we have your exclusive interview with the greek prime minister coming up you francine lacqua in egypt. coming up, markets focused on the u.s. election later today.

some analysis suggests or at least history suggests gridlock has been good for u.s. stocks. what is more important -- cpi or the election? this is bloomberg. ♪

>> if we saw more aggressive

cost-cutting not just at tech companies but companies more broadly, this acknowledgment that we have a cost problem, and obviously we don't want to see people get fired, layoffs unfortunately are part of the slowdown. when the layoff cycle picks up in earnest, that will be one of the keys for us to get the list because it means the bleeding will stop. dani: mike wilson speaking to bloomberg and joining us now is alan higgins. great to have you in person on set. mike wilson has adopted the short-term will status. mike a lot of edge continues to be able forever. i have the same narrative that bond volatility has peaked and yields have peaked. do you buy it? alan: you have to listen to mike wilson, he has really called it. i am with him on the technical bounce absolutely, whether you look at sentiment, etc..

interesting longer-term he wants to see evidence of cost-cutting, seeing that in big tech names clearly. look -- we deal with on's first. we think bonds are strategically attractive. it's about time we had a positive inflation surprise. there are lots of errands of lower inflation. bonds first and then equities. if you look at just the nature of equity returns, maybe this is where mike is coming from, these surges you get are difficult to time and i think of mentioned before that people remember 2018 and after that fed tightening, within five months, from about christmas eve in 2018 through may, the s&p up 25%. it is difficult to play from the short side and sentiment, you mentioned had fudge positioning -- hedge fund positioning low.

from our perspective, better capital allocation, risk reward, and bonds look attractive. manus: they front run me, peaked bond volatility. alan higgins, welcome back to daybreak. here we go. this is a punchy old call, time to buy bonds, atop in inflation. are you tempted to call a time to write vol in the bond market and take a premium? alan: a nice trade, i like your thinking, and nice to talk to you. always happy to get up early and chat to you. [laughter] vol is elevated and that is one way of playing it. from a straightforward perspective you can look at the u.s. mortgage market, the link optionality is in that market, but more sophisticated is taking some premium. that is one way to go. i just quite like the

straightforward trade of liking in these -- locking in these income streams. you may remember where is the income? now it is everywhere, from treasuries on the screen here, investment grade a high quality investment grade. one of our favorites is financial credit, the banks are in great shape, paid very attractive spreads on financial credit. there is income everywhere, selling vol, why not? dani: you are nothing if not sophisticated, go for the complicated trades. how do you make sense of the dollar? 10 year yields just 10 basis points away from cyclical highs yet a dollar that has fallen 2% since thursday. is the dollar trade exhausted? alan: i think so. the issue is everything seems so correlated, like a bond yields -- if michael from morgan stanley is right and we are right, it looks like you get

bond down a bit. it's true bond yields have been sticky, a lot of supply that will keep that elevated. the dollar is down a bit, probably one of the more crowded trades, long dollar. especially in the hedge fund world, you see spectacular returns in the macro space, the cta space. a lot of that is currency related, a bit short bond related as well. manus: a lot of people have said that we can live without china before we see something definitive on the reopening. very briefly, are you leaving without china, are you preparing direct china exposure? hang seng up 10% and a couple of sessions. there are some crash up moments in these markets, aren't there? alan: china is interesting despite the bad news, as you say, it has rallied strongly,

tentative good news that could the overridden by zero covid. china is a small part of our portfolio. any em exposure, you pick up a fair bit of china, a fair bit is dominated by china. but the time for big positioning is not there. it's not just a zero covid -- for global investors like us we want more confidence the markets are really open for entrepreneurial companies. and the crackdowns with had in various sectors makes us very nervous from a capital allocation point of view viewed dani: we have dirty seconds, just quickly -- to the midterms matter to you? alan: not much apart from the data. the data shows gridlock is great and it looks like we are going to get it. the data shows it is a good time to invest. is it random, i don't know. what i would say, history is showing that in the absence of gridlock, biden's 2021 fiscal

splurge, it looks like larry summers is right, it was too much. you won't get any more of that after these midterms. manus: alan, thank you for joining us. short and sweet: the midterms. alan higgins the coutts cio. we speak exquisitely to the greek prime minister at cop 27 in just under nine minutes time right here on bloomberg. ♪

manus: let's get the first word news, simone foxman joins us from doha. simone: we have learned the european commission does not now see a price cap on natural gas as the best way to fix the energy crisis.

brussels presented its analysis of possible actions in a meeting of member states yesterday. the eu is said to favor a mechanism to spread the high gas costs over time. a report says u.k. boardrooms are increasingly frustrated with london's institutional investors and the proxy agencies that guide them. the survey of ftse 100 chairs by apr form -- a pr firm found companies are spending too much time on regulation instead of running businesses. ftse chairs say the proliferation of rules has resulted in a culture of box ticking. brazil's president-elect has delayed the most -- much awaited announcement of a multibillion-dollar spending plan as he works out how to pay for his campaign pledges. during the election, lula promised to boost cash transfers for four pampers -- families, and increase the minimum wage. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake,

powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. dani? dani: thank you, simone foxman indo hop. -- in doha. let's talk about the gilt, yields did rise yesterday, yesterday was the first day of four consecutive days of sales, not to mention qt. manus: yes, and this will be the real litmus test, isn't it? you saw quite a spike in the 10 year government bond yields but the real movement was the short end of the curve, up 16 basis points. do you choke on 11 billion points worth of bonds? we know the bank of england is testing what qt looks like and our friend of the show says it is not a great look for the gilt market when you try to flog 11 billion pounds worth of gilt and it chokes.

not a good look for the bank of england but they are holding themselves back on the long end of the curve. dani: they are. to some this is a global story, the ecb looking at qt, and also there has been a glut of supply from the u.s. alan mentioned this to us, that's why yields were pressured yesterday, considering the corporate launching new auctions. manus: yeah, 7 billion from oracle. he has arrived and is on set with francine lacqua, an exclusive conversation with the greek prime minister at cop 27 on the ground right here on bloomberg. ♪ (jennifer) the reason why golo customers have such long term success is because we focus on real foods in the right balance so you get the results you want. when i tell people how easy it was for me to lose weight on golo, they don't believe me. they don't believe i can eat real food and lose this much weight. the release supplement makes losing weight easy. release sets you up for successful weight loss because it supports your blood sugar levels between meals so you aren't hungry or fatigued. after i started taking release,

the weight just started falling off. since starting golo and taking release, i've gone from a size 12 to a 4. before golo, i was hungry all the time and constantly thinking about food. after taking release, that stopped. with release, i didn't feel that hunger that comes with dieting. which made the golo plan really easy to stick to. since starting golo and release, i have dropped seven pant sizes and i've kept it off. golo is real, our customers are real, and our success stories are real. why not give it a try?

manus: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," i am manus cranny in dubai with dani burger

in london. dani: battle for the hill -- u.s. midterm elections kick off today with the democrats facing an uphill task to hold congress. former president trump promises a big announcement next week. mixed markets -- stocks and futures mixed as voters head to the polls. oldman outlines a plausible path for avoiding a u.s. recession. plus, emmanuel macron decries uncertainty for climate policy brought about by russia's war in ukraine. we are speaking exclusively to the greek prime minister live from egypt. speaking of which, let's get over to coppin 27, where -- cop 27, where francine lacqua is standing by. francine: i cannot be more pleased to be joined by kyriakos mitsotakis, prime minister of greece. are you optimistic things will get done? i know this isn't a headline cop , not expecting huge pledges.

we are expecting money, will we get money from richer countries to the poorer to help with climate change? pm mitsotakis: i am reasonably optimistic. you're right to point out that the real question is the financing of the transition and to make it more affordable for lower income countries to move toward green energy and a more sustainable future. there is a lot of momentum, a lot of engagement by private stakeholders, companies and ngos. i think we are understanding that every day that passes there is a new climate crisis somewhere. we know climate change is happening faster than we thought into this is becoming common knowledge, which requires an urgent response. francine: how difficult is it to give money for things like that when we are dealing with a huge energy security crisis in europe coupled with cost-of-living increasing, and a lot of people that have to make difficult choices through the winter? pm mitsotakis: difficult choices have to be made. at the same time we know we need to double down on the green transition.

let me give you the example of greece. 10 gigawatts of power, we ran the entire country for five hours yesterday simply through renewables, and we understand focusing on renewables is cheaper but also geopolitically safer, and also contribute toward reducing our emissions. these projects are positive and that's what i expect significant acceleration when it comes to renewables around the world. francine: does energy security concerns change your plans? pm mitsotakis: short-term yes. we plan to prolong our production from coal for two or three years, but moving away from coal is a decision we have made that is not going to change. what will change is the diversity of supply when it comes to natural gas. we know we will need natural gas for the foreseeable future. greece is becoming an energy hub

to bring in liquefied natural gas, not just to cover our country's needs but also provide natural gas for the balkans and central europe, why not for ukraine? in that respect, this role for the countries becoming important. francine: you are also trying to build cable from egypt to greece it will bring in green energy, and also to import some of the gas? pm mitsotakis: we want to become a net exporter of electricity, green electricity to central europe. we need more interconnections to central europe, but we can also be the intermediary country that will connect europe to north africa. we are talking to the egyptians and putting forward a very ambitious three gigawatt cable that will connect africa to greece and of course to have a three gigawatts cable, you need 10 gigawatts installed to produce the electricity. francine: if you look at the

crisis, you believe in general because of the wharton ukraine, the transition will take longer but -- war in ukraine, the transition will take longer but be more aggressive? pm mitsotakis: it has to be faster. when we look at how we are deploying our capital, european money but also private capital, we know for example we need more infrastructure in our grids. this for us is of paramount importance because at some point we won't be able to install more renewables unless we have more investment into the grids. security of supply is a huge issue. renewables are the safest, the cleanest, and the cheapest form of energy today, especially for countries such as greece. francine: i want to talk about the cost-of-living crisis. in terms of growth, greece is doing quite well compared to other nations. the cost-of-living crisis is still affecting a lot of your citizens. pm mitsotakis: it is and that's why we are supporting citizens through various means.

the economy has been over performing, we will grow it close to 6% this year, giving us budget space to support citizens paired of course -- citizens. we are probably the only country able to recycle buffets from energy producers. we have placed a 90% tax on the windfall profits of electricity producers during the first six months of 2022, so we are calling back a significant amount of money from energy producers to support businesses and households. francine: greece went through a huge austerity program through the imf. i don't know if you had advice when you caught up with u.k. prime minister about what they need to do after the difficult two months in the u.k. pm mitsotakis: what we saw in the u.k. is very clear, you cannot for the markets. -- fool the markets. if you offer a program not

well-funded, the markets will ask questions regardless of your we learned our lesson. everything you do has to be fiscally sustainable. the reason we are doing well is because we've been able to combine high-growth a reasonable fiscal policy. i have refused calls as a result of the reduction in vat. it would make a dent in our budget without delivering lower prices. we know we need to be targeted in our support laser focused on supporting those households that are more vulnerable. francine: i know there was also a lot of talk over the weekend about a spying scandal. can you confirm what you know? is it accurate journalists and others were being taped and wired? pm mitsotakis: absolutely not, i made it clear that the recent publication that saw the light of day in greece is false. i've been very clear in terms of recognizing that in europe, we have a problem in terms of

illegal spyware, it is not only a greek problem. it is in many european countries. we need european elation to address it. i hope greece will be the first country in europe, in the next month we will ban all illegal spyware that can be sold out of greece. we need to take this, it is a real problem, and turn it into an opportunity. francine: i know you won't talk to me about u.s. politics, but we have the midterms that could change the composition of some of the decisions on tax, the debt ceiling, the economic policies out of the u.s.. how does that impact europe? what kind of partner does europe need in the united states? pm mitsotakis: let me speak about the greek-american relation, at an all-time high and i expect that to remain so regardless of what will happen in the u.s. congress greece is a strategic partner for the u.s. in a difficult part of the world. regardless of what happens in congress, i expect this not to change. francine: prime minister, thank you for your time. i hope to see you in london

soon. kyriakos mitsotakis, prime minister of greece. i will hand it back to you and we will have plenty more from cop 27 through the day. dani: francine, thank you. francine lacqua speaking with the prime minister of greece. shall we get back to corporate news? manus: absolutely, but i like fran's attitude, show me the money. i have visions of her haranguing various prime ministers along with yousef. let's see renault opens at start of trade. they have a big ambition, the operating margin for the french carmaker, they will embark on a deep overhaul that will split the electric vehicle company out and the legacy combustion engine is in his. -- engine business. joining us for more is our colleague. what you think is the most import a piece of this news?

the ipo prospect, or the joint ventures? >> hello. it is all very big and ambitious. ambitious targets but i think some analysts already expected the numbers would have looked good. probably investors will be pleased even though a lot of what will be announced today was expected. this is a company that has been in trouble, you will remember the 20 arrest of carlos ghosn, the huge loss the company posted a few years back right after the new ceo took over. things are looking better. then again, all the industry is suffering face forward toward electrification and it is a difficult transition. renault feels and is a lot of partnership, to get outside investors. so it is setting itself up in five different groups and one of

them, the ev group, the electric business group will probably be listed as of next year at the earliest, the second half of next year. we are hearing the company would like evaluation of 10 billion euros. this is a round figure. they may not get as high. don't forget renault today is worth only 9.3 billion euros in terms of capital markets. big numbers, again ambition's and it will be interesting to get more details and see the share price reaction at the open. dani: a deep overhaul, double-digit margin, doubling the margin to 10% might be something shareholders like. thank you, albertina. coming up, the midterm elections are finally with us and we will look ahead to the day polling in the united states. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: it is u.s. midterm election day, a vote that could tip the balance of power in washington. president biden has warned it will be tough for democrats to retain control of the house. former president trump said he will make a big announcement november 15. let's speak to madison mills, who is up early for us in miami. this big announcement, it is hard to imagine it would be anything different than trump announcing his run for president. how does that color these midterm elections? madison: we are getting varied responses from that angle from gop representatives, with one telling david westin yesterday they are trying not to necessarily have the midterm elections get clouded in what is to come at the next election

cycle. a lot of the campaign experts i have spoken with have said it is important to focus on the race in front of you and not the next race. that can change the minds of voters at the last minute. then again, we are seeing that all candidates that have an endorsed by former president trump are polling well headed into today in the states. it remains to be seen how his potential announcement is going to impact voting. we also know we have had record-breaking early voting in the u.s. with millions heading to the polls early the past couple of weeks, sending in mail-in ballots and absentee ballots. it also could not have an impact on the election outcome. what is interesting, i am in florida and i am fascinated to see how the sort of president trump versus governor ron desantis debate unfolds. that's the question i'm going to ask voters when i had to the polls later this morning.

manus: this is sort of the classic kind of trump tactic, isn't it? coming out in the middle of the moment when people go to the polls, to disrupt the message and change the narrative. it was the playbook throughout his presidency. madison, fair call to you being up in the middle of the night, i think you get the goldstar for bloomberg. madison mills, locked somewhere in miami. [laughter] thank you. let's dig into the midterms. we have the director for ucl center of u.s. politics. good to have you with us. what you think trump announced he's making a big announcement next week? have we got the right plot, is he trying to wobble the message today as voters go to the polls? good morning. thomas: donald trump likes to suck up all the air in the room,

so as you suggested, this is classic trump. i think he's also looking at the numbers, the odds that republicans do well tonight and he is saying he can ride that wave. according to 538, the chances republicans win the senate are about 59%, the odds they will take the house is roughly 84%. either way, i think donald trump cannot win. either a lot of his endorsed candidates are going to do well and he will try to take credit in use that momentum to push into 2024. if by chance they don't do as well as expected or underperform, he will just criticize them for not being sufficiently trumpian. typical donald trump, sets himself up so he is always the winner, everybody else is with him or the losers. i think that's one reason why he is framing it this way. dani: can he actually ride the momentum or be a winner in the other scenario? does former president donald trump have enough support from the party to do a redux of his

presidency? thomas: i think you have to say that donald trump is the presumptive nominee regardless of what happens today. he just has so much support, he really has a floor of support in the republican party that makes it very difficult for anyone else i think to beat him. if he in fact does declare. really the only candidate at this point that seems a likely contender would be ron desantis, and i think a lot of republican voters think ron desantis's career is due to trump, and they also think from have the election stolen from him in 2020 and so it is not desantis's turn it yet. i think ultimately must republican voters will look at donald trump and say this is the person we want, so i think if he wants the nomination he will get it. manus: one of the global moments and american moments of history was the rolling back of roe v. wade.

we watched it live, watched the announcement and reaction on both sides. how much of a game changer is it going to be? do you think it will play to the democrats? is it a quiet issue that voters will quietly reflect upon rather than openly reveal they are upset about a gas price? thomas: it will surly be one of many factors but i don't think it will be as decisive as democrats hoped. back in august, democrats and joe biden thought they have a galvanizing issue with abortion. a lot of money flowing into pro-choice candidates, a big referendum that democrats won in kansas protecting abortion rights. as we've gotten closer to the election, i think voters have zeroed in on the number one issue they think is important to them in that is the economy. also if you look at some of the

polling, i think it is the case that with abortion, it is just not a salient issue for a lot of voters, even if they have strong opinions. according to a recent poll by harvard, 37% of voters were more likely to want to vote republican as a result of the dobbs decision compared to 40% for democrats. it is a little more nuanced i think. dani: given some, as you say, the referendums we have seen on abortion and the strong feeling, is this a problem of it not important policy or simply an issue of messaging from the democrats failing to galvanize this important issue for many folks? thomas: i think it may be a combination. there is some concern that democrats may be overreached on the abortion issue and some candidates have taken more extreme positions than what is considered to be in the mainstream. i really do think it is ultimately an issue of saliency. you look at some of the polling by pugh or gallup, only about

45% list abortion is the top issue. that doesn't mean it is not important to them but it means there are other issues that override that. everything is back to inflation in the economy. manus: thomas, biden went to saudi arabia and fist bumped mohammad bin salman and came home and saudis cut oil. i'm not interested in whether the whole of the american public, nuanced over opec, but how do they see that, does it play out at all? or is it at the margins? in the wake of the jamal khashoggi murder, which is still live in many minds around the world. thomas: it is. you might think it would have been a bigger issue and certainly at the time republicans tried to zero in on it and frame democrats as cozying up to this dictator. ultimately i think domestic

issues will drive voters today, not foreign policy issues. there are some other big issues happening in the world, of course. the war in ukraine, continued provocations and aggressions by china. i think all of that fades into the backdrop compared to the number one issue. it really does come back to inflation. i think democrats have been in a catch without a campaign over inflation. it is a top issue for voters so it is impossible to escape but democrats have a hard time talking about it because it is viewed as a strike against them. biden has tried to deflect blame on rising prices, covid-19 and supply chain crisis is, putin's war, maybe some justifications in that, but i think ultimately voters will hold the party in power responsible. dani: it is a challenging scenario. quickly, less than a minute, do

democrats lose both chambers of congress after today? thomas: it will be really tight. i think absolutely they will lose the house or close to absolutely. i think the senate will be just about 50-50. there was a poll that came out from marist last week that showed good news for democrats in senate races in arizona, georgia and pennsylvania that could just be a barrage. -- a mirage. in some ways i think it is amazing that democrat are running as close as they are given the inflation and biden's approval ratings and surging crime in another of major cities. i am not saying democrats should be encouraged by that, but the fact they are in the game is something they have to take stock in and republicans when they do this postmortem, they might say this is a perfect storm against democrats and still we were barely able to eke out a win. dani: thank you for joining us,

thomas have to from the ucl center, who i am sure has a busy 24 hours ahead of him. we will have a busy 24 hours on bloomberg tv, special coverage of the midterm elections that will start at 1:00 a.m. tonight london time. first, don't miss more top interviews from cop 27. we will speak with the world bank president as well as boe governor mark carney. this is bloomberg. ♪

dani: to start the weekend, we saw equity markets, and their sterling out -- stalling out. it's about how much risk you want to take. manus: the call should maybe taper off from the talk. we just heard from alan higgins,

he likes a good, clean, straightforward trade, buy yourself some bonds, he likes sovereigns at this level. it is about trading into that pivot and that pause at that may come at the back end of next year. state street were with me earlier and they think rate cuts in q3 and q4 22 any three. dani: it's interesting to see what was different opinions going -- starting to coalesce. a lot of it has to do with the idea that bond volatility has peaked and yields have peaked. only time will tell with a busy week. bloomberg markets: europe is next. ♪

hi, i'm jason and i've lost 202 pounds on golo. being a veteran, the transition from the military into civilian life causes a lot of stress. i ate a lot for stress.

golo and release has helped me with managing that stress and allowing me to focus on losing weight. for anyone struggling with weight and stress-related weight gain, i recommend golo to you. this i t this is not a hoax. - [announcer] imagine having fuller, thicker, you follow the plan, you'll lose weight. more voluminous hair instantly. all it takes is just one session at hairclub. introducing xtrands. xtrands adds hundreds or even thousands of hair strands to your existing hair at the root. they're personalized to match your own natural hair color and texture, so they'll blend right in for a natural, effortless look. call in the next five minutes and when you buy 500 strands, you get 500 strands free. call right now. anna: good morning and welcome (upbeat music)

to "bloomberg markets: europe." i'm anna edwards.