>> markets prefer gridlock

generally to one party having control of all the levers of power. >> inflation will come down over next year. >> it is also likely that future levels of inflation are more persistent. >> what do we know so far about the inflation call? everyone has gotten it wrong. >> fiscal stimulus from 2020 and 2021 will still act as a buffer for 2023 and 2024. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: good morning, everyone. jonathan ferro, tom keene, lisa abramowicz from the nation's capital. a midterm election. in this environment coming up, this pandemic, it is important. tom: certainly sets the stage for the next general election. that has already started. overwhelmingly, gridlock is the

view. mohamed el-erian talking about the potential breadth and depth of a recession that is to come. tom: we are not doing the play-by-play of arizona, what is going on in pennsylvania and all of that, but the global add that we can bring, the character around washington policy and what it means for the degrees of freedom the fed has. they are limited with a difficult election. tom: there is a different dynamic. many on wall street just to want it cleared, move on to cpi. when you look at the polls in a place like georgia, we have discussed this, it looks like that could go to a runoff. then we are talking about another four weeks of this. potentially we don't clear that hurdle anytime soon. tom: two days outcome inflation

report, with what we see today. french film was with us from arkansas. chicken is through the roof, like everything else at the store. lisa: i am curious to see how the inflation report really affects the discussion points during the midterm elections. we were speaking to congressman french hill about the potential emergency and natural gas if prices go to high, at what point do you start restricting exports, at what point do you say that we can respond with more spending the way that germany is, or not? tom: factoid of the morning for me, stephen short saying, with all that is going on, that gas, hydrocarbons in europe is $600 a barrel equivalent. we have got it bad but nothing like the economic and inflation dynamics of europe. tom: what is taking place over

the next 24 hours has consequences not just for the next few weeks, but potentially the next few years. what is happening in europe is important. it is not about this winter but next winter now. they got their storage levels up. you can see that reflected in gas prices. they have rolled over because storage is basically at capacity. can you repeat the act they engineered this winter, getting storage up using nord stream, where does it come from next winter? tremendously difficult to do. lisa: how about all the other nations that have not had the luxury of building up those stores? certain developing nations are seeing prices rise to record highs because europe is sucking it all up. tom: we have not talked about china, which is about the only thing that they can agree on in washington today. let me get the data check. 4.71% on the two year yield.

no one a year ago would have guessed that. tom: we have a little bit of a rally coming into decision day. up another quarter percent. turnaround in the bond market. where were we 12 months ago? the change in this bond market has been monstrous, delivered by this fed. tom: it is off the radar of politicians, to their electorate. pew research trust talks about nine groups of americans, all not affected by this data. tom: this is important on the inflation point. we all know inflation is a major point in the discussion around voting in america in the midterms. what is not clear to me is how many people blame the white house for that. we know the republicans do, but what about the democrats? we have nuanced conversations on

programs like this. it would be interesting to see who of the democrats, who did they blame that on? do they blame it on the white house? jon: i mentioned that. tom: david westin will have a lot of that coverage tonight at 8:00. right now, we drive forward in the conversation with a beltway insider from the rock creek group, managing director at alifia doriwala. even on election day, washington doesn't get up until 8:30. alifia: we are finance people, so we are up. tom: explain election day in washington. use washington deserted on election day? alifia: i don't know if it is as exciting as people think it is. people are working from home anyway, especially the government. i'm not sure if we are getting a lot of incitement today.

markets are pricing in a split congress and what that means for markets. jon: what does that mean for you? is that good or bad? we are told overwhelmingly it is good. alifia: it could be good, less inflationary pressure, stronger dollar, all of those things could pricing to markets, being alone bit more positive. honestly, i think the midterm elections will just be a blip in what we see in markets. unfortunately, everyone is tired of hearing this, but it's all about inflation. lisa: what is a longer-term consequence of the fiscal response not being there regardless of who is elected into the white house even in 2024? alifia: we don't talk about the inflation reduction act. we have been doing a lot of research to see what are the different areas that we can actually invest in. there are pockets of opportunity there. tom: you manage conservative

money. if there is a new risk-free rate -- i mentioned the two year yield where it is. how does it change the return assumption of international money? alifia: it is part of the building blocks of your capital return assumptions. they want to have their money in perpetuity. having these types of rates in the fixed income market, we are talking so much more about how to manage our exposure. one of the best traits right now is putting your cash in six-month t-bills. tom: how do you manage your losses over the last couple of years? alifia: the u.s. bond market is down 16% this year, equity markets down 25%. we have had a very diversified exposure. we also have tips, gold, floating rate funds. we have stayed away from high-yield. we have been short duration, as

well, which is helping to limit our losses on the downside. jon: one thing we've been trying to work out, whether we operate with the assumption that we will have fed funds at 3.5 to 5% for the next few years. is that your basic assumption now? alifia: it is, but we are looking at when the fed will pause or pivot. that will change the rotation in terms of portfolios, where you may want to be putting money. you might be wanting to increase your exposure. lisa: when do you think we will start to see a 60/40 portfolio reinsert its way in a positive way? alifia: maybe 16 month before you see any appreciation in that type of portfolio. a lot of alternatives today, as well. jon: where does the diversification come from if we are faced with a positive thought equity correlation? alifia: we have the advantage of

being able to invest in private markets. as much as we have seen valuations come down, they have not come down as much as public markets. there are lots of sectors that are actually less economically sensitive and what we are seeing in tech today. we are investing in food, ag, climate related areas, things that will be 10-year investments. jon: our private markets really adjusted? alifia: they never adjust. that is the beauty of the private markets. lisa: do you think anyone will have to sell and lock-in the declines? alifia: if you look at the venture side of things, the companies that are most well-run, they have 18 to 24 months of runway with cash. that could get you through a period where you don't have to go to market soon. there could be a occasion between companies that have managed well and those who have not. jon: great to see you as always. did you call her a beltway

insider? i am not sure that alifia wants to be seen that way. finance. we wake up early. tom: what is the internal rate of return? alifia: 5%? i don't know. we are not super optimistic on the market. you should ask him about private markets. tom: we will do that. don't get up, we are still on air. lisa: what are you selling? jon: you ask him. looking forward to that. coming up shortly, congressman peter welch, democrat from vermont. counting down to the final day of voting. we always call it election day, but it has been election month. tom: 730 days until the next election. election life.

jon: lisa, i like that. futures up .1% on the s&p 500. for the audience worldwide, heard on radio, seen on tv, this is bloomberg surveillance. lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. millions of americans will decide whether democrats or republicans have the right ideas to guide the u.s. through inflation, possible recession, and splits on cultural issues. if republicans regain control of congress or one of the two chambers, president biden's agenda would grind to a halt. donald has all but confirmed his anticipated third run for the white house. he told a rally in ohio that he would be making a very big announcement next tuesday in florida. the former is hoping to take advantage of good election results for republicans. the prime minister of greece

says his country is becoming a hub for importing green power to europe. he spoke to bloomberg at the climate change summit in egypt. >> what will change is the diversity of supply when it comes to natural gas. we know we need natural gas for the foreseeable future. greece is becoming an energy how to bring in liquefied natural gas to not only cover our country's needs but to provide natural gas to the balkans, central europe, lineup for ukraine. lisa: he says greece is working on plans with africa. sales of supercars are booming in japan. new registrations costing more than $136,000 soared to 64% in the first nine months of the year. sales are fueled by post-covid lockdown demand from wealthy buyers who also see the cars as

good investments. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> we have seen the house foot

before in the last decade. house republicans are ready to lead on try to control inflation, go back to pre-pandemic spending priorities, lead on unleashing american energy, and focusing on security. jon: congressman french hill, the public and from arkansas in the past hour. on election day, here is the price action. about one hour away from the opening. yields going absolutely nowhere. let's call it down two basis points. 4.1907 on the 10 year. just a little bit of euro weakness, dollar strength making a comeback after a few days of dollar weakness. crude, 91.39. tom: lisa has been talking about duration, this idea of time on the x-axis.

that is where you can link politicians on election day into what we do on economics, finance, investment, the duration of these trends. the politicians have to be asking, how long does it take to get inflation salt? jon: the persistence of the federal reserve, even if they stop hiking interest rates. what the chairman powell essentially tell us? slower but higher. also longer. you have slower but higher but also longer. that is what the fed is trying to signal. tom: for so many politicians, the gallon of gas, we know that, but the rents, as well. do you manage them in a way, away from disinflationary trends? lisa: what can politicians single-handedly do to these

inflation issues? people will talk about different things, production from fossil fuels, trade agreements, and none of them single-handedly will bring down inflation. it is multifaceted. you have to say where are the investments going, where is the money on wall street going? what is the global supply chain issue and how quickly doesn't get resolved? tom: thursday, inflation. . is this an inflation report that can change that can change the fed dialogue? jon: you would have to have a massive downside surprise. by the way, i think we have two more prints before the december federal reserve meeting. tom: we will be here through tomorrow morning, david westin leading our coverage this evening. we do touch on economics and the barometer of investment and

finance, fixed income. kelsey berro joins us now. i love the note, gaming out the duration that we will see. if we see some form of jay powell terminal rate, what is the length of the people be there for? kelsey: historically, when the fed reaches the terminal rate, they keep policy rate at that level for about seven to 12 months. it is reasonable to expect a similar duration this time around. we expect the fed to get to at least 24.75, if not five, and then to hold their. the reason they need to hold there, they need to see inflation come down so they see a significantly positive real funds rate. that is what our historical analysis shows us. the fed does not stop hiking

until the real fed funds rate, which is the fed funds rate minus current inflation, is positive. lisa: what does that mean for investing in riskier assets? people have been talking about how this will kill a lot of momentum in equities and credit. we are looking at high-yield that has rallied sharply. double line came out and said they saw a negative tilt to high-yield. would you agree, this is a no go, because it has not appreciated the risks out there? kelsey: if you look at the returns and high-yield this year, the majority of returns are being driven by high risk free rates, not by wider spreads. i would agree we are maintaining a very cautious stance to high-yield. we are not really noticing, but in the background,

quantitative tightening, which is just starting to ramp up. i was looking back at a blog that i had written at the start of the year with a colleague, at the time the balance was 8.7 trillion. it is just now getting back. we have round-trip the expansion at the beginning of this year. we still have a lot more to go in terms of quantitative tightening. that is another reason to stay cautious as it relates to the lower quality areas within fixed income. lisa: how much will any sellout be accelerated by private markets that have not reset yet in terms of how much they will go down? fund managers are saying, you promised us money, people having to sell in order to get the capital. how much will that accelerate the downturn in public markets that can be sold for capital for private obligations? kelsey: liquidity management is extremely important. this is something we've been

thinking about. we know the high-yield market is higher quality it's been in the past. but those lower quality deals are going to the private market. unfortunately, what may happen, the private market, because it is so illiquid, when people raise the money come it will come from the public markets. even though the credit quality is higher on average, you need to think about that liquidity component. where we are hiding out is still in the short maturity investment grade and securitized cash flows, where you can get 6% to 7% yields, breakeven around 200 basis points. that is attractive. we cannot lose sight of the fact that yields are materially higher. there is income in fixed income today. where we need to think about is where to be extending duration and adding to those core fixed income holdings. jon: you have been awesome

recently. great to hear from you. thank you as always. kelsey alongside bob michele from jp morgan, reluctance to engage risk and credit. they do not believe we have seen the wides in the credit market. lisa: other people disagree. you are seeing how you'll do really well, significant rally in the last couple of weeks in tandem with stocks. who is on the other side of that? tom: i would say their caution is dead on. jon: you have talked about the losses in fixed income. tom: you know how i feel about this. forget about all the spread analysis. price down. jon: from washington, this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: two-day winning streak on the s&p 500. can we make it three? equity futures up .2% on the s&p.

yields are lower by a couple of basis points on the 10-year. 4.1928. crude is softer at 91.50. donna weakness recently, now some dollar strength against the euro. tom: i will call it a quiet market. we are talking about this, it is about the election, not just the mystery to the inflation report. let's see where we are tomorrow morning. jon: see if we have to wait to see the outcomes. tom: here in washington for two days, looking at elections. we go to the other side, arguably the most interesting democrat party experiment in america, and that is vermont. i spoke with senator lahey a few months ago, wonderful book out.

peter welch, congressman from vermont. let me start with the vermont tradition, will you vote early, will you vote often? peter: i will vote early, but the voting often is a chicago tradition. just one and done here. tom: i need to talk about the transformation of vermont and what is unspoken. i remember white river junction years ago, up the connecticut river. it is now a boom economy with an unemployment rate under 2%. what is the vermont exceed just that makes for prosperity? peter: well, white river is where i first came. the town is now doing really well. there is a civic tradition here, where our businesses and government have worked together

well in partnership. we have had a commitment to our environment, through democratic and republican governors, commitment in tough time to support people that need help, and then lower taxes when times are good. i think there has been a very functional government here through republican and democratic administrations, where there has been social liberalism and economic stewardship. we pay our bills here in vermont. tom: as time moves on, as senator sanders, senator lahey retires, do you suggest the democratic party will move to a national center, away from a more east coast and west coast liberality? peter: let's define that. what has worked for us, what has worked for the national democratic party, is to have a commitment to the environment,

understanding there has to be partnerships between government and the private sector, in order to get things done. frankly, i think that is what you see with the inflation reduction act with climate change. a lot of tax incentives that will help to create a market dynamic. there is a good deal of civic cooperation here in vermont. people here listen more than they talk. when we disagree with somebody we don't assume bad motives. i think the way we do things in vermont, we have a republican governor, democratic, independent in bernie sanders in congress, about that mutual -- but that mutual respect is what we need. certainly, we don't have election deniers here in vermont. lisa: talking about the green transition, there has been such pushback because of the need to invest in fossil fuels in the near term.

how do you dovetail a message that is supportive for the oil and gas that people rely on that will be fraught with high prices, with the idea that you need to invest long term, with the idea that people don't want to spend too much in the face of inflation? peter: you are exactly right. the bottom line is if we are going to get to clean energy. everyone knows that if we are going to do that, it needs to be affordable. if someone wants to get a f-150 electric truck, that needs to be affordable for them. this has been the case in many technological transformations. government policy plays a big role with tax incentives, that that encourages private investment. we saw that with solar, the price of panels coming way down, but we are not there in some areas like with electric vehicles.

i think the combination of public policy and incentives to make that gradual transition. in the meantime, people are going to get through the winter. we have to make sure they have affordable heating fuel. that will be a big issue for us when we return to washington. lisa: are you worried about the perception of the democratic party having gotten too extreme on the left side? peter: certainly in the campaign, the campaign reduces things down to an absurd narrow definition. in fact, when you look at our record, there has been significant focus on economic development in jobs. the big challenge we are facing right now is coming out of covid, we have inflation in this country, but we have inflation around the world that is even worse than ours. we have to take steps to bring it down. this is what will await us

tomorrow, after we get the verdict of the voters. we have history with this republican party, particularly in the house, where there are pretty extreme policies. we will hear a lot about getting government under control by reducing social security. a lot of discussion about getting government spending under control by defaulting on our debt. we have been through that. colleagues of mine in the house are saying they want to default on the debt unless they get their way on their spending proposals. there is a lot at jeopardy here, depending on what the outcome of this election is. we start going back to the impeachments, hunter biden, joe biden, defaulting on the debt is a threat, government shutdown. all of that is chaos for the well-being of our economy. jon: thanks for being with us, peter welch.

election day in america. anne-marie joining us for some final thoughts. there seems to be a gap between the world that the democrats see, and the way that americans feel about it, whether it is the economy, crime in places like new york, how can they narrow that gap? annmarie: i am not sure if it is how much they see it differently, but it is how they communicated that has been the challenge. they have not been able to land their inflation message with the american electorate. what you see is them throwing a lot of options at the wall and not anything has stuck. when it comes to crime -- i think about kathy hogle talking about putting more money into it. but americans are not feeling it. what they have tried to do is really hone in on these messages in the final days. maybe that has helped. we have seen over the last week,

polls neutralize. massive neutralization in terms of what we saw early in the fall when the abortion rhetoric was not resonating with people as much because people were grappling with price pressures. tom: i want to get out ahead of dan yergin. a classic book about optimism about the american domestic and international experience. take the took picture of washington's commanding heights on the selection doing. is it there or is it all just cynicism and gloom? annmarie: the president yesterday acknowledged, coming off of marine one after a rally in maryland, that they would likely lose seats in the house, and that would be harder. but he said at the end of the day i'm optimistic. it really depends on who you ask.

the republicans are incredibly optimistic that they will gain control following this midterm election. that is domestically. you mentioned dan yergin, so my mind goes international. lots of questions about what 2024 means for international partners depending on who gets that high seat in the white house. lisa: what are you looking for to determine the leadership of the democratic party? there are some questions about whether president biden will or can run based on his popularity. annmarie: i think the first hints will be this midterm elections. how much of this is a referendum against resident biden? if he loses the house, he can probably swing a reelection. if you loses the senate, as well, those whispers among democratic circles that potentially he should not be the leader for the next generation, as he will be turning 80 at the end of this month, same in the

republican circles about former president trump, in his late 70's. maybe those whispers become louder. jon: one question, where are we hosting breakfast this morning? lisa: i thought you liked ben's chili bowl. annmarie: we get up so early, so it is lunch for us. jon: nice to see you. annmarie: you should come by more often. tom: i have talked to my people. jon: your people? tom: i think washington story, seriously, for global wall street, people looking at economics, finance, and investment, is tangible. the next election is on right now. jon: you have asked the question. if we get the results from the midterms, are we going to find

out who the two people racing against each other are almost immediately? annmarie: i want to know in terms of the midterms, do those whispers become louder against the president? lisa: it is a big field, it is two years. jon: if the former president runs, does someone challenge him? annmarie: i think biden has to come out and say i was the only one to beat him. jon: i don't mean democrats. do others allow him? do they take a backseat? lisa: fired up. long island annmarie. jon: coming up, dan yergin of s&p global. you should see amh with a basketball.

knicks saturday night. against the celtics. from d.c., this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. donald trump says he doesn't want to distract from today's midterm elections, so he is holding off until next week to make his very big announcement. he is excited to declare a third bid for the white house. the u.s. votes today in elections that will decide which party controls congress. millions cast their ballots in advance. republicans feel good about their chances to capture both chambers. president biden admits it will be tougher to retain the house than the senate. close races mean it could be days before the pot results is determined. job cuts in the tech industry are now nearing levels last seen in the covid pandemic. in recent weeks, a number of companies said they will put hiring on hold or cut jobs

outright, such as twitter, apple, amazon, and alphabet. meta is set to cut thousands of workers this week. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪♪ this... is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan

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>> we have not seen the impact of inflation or recession on consumer demand for hydrocarbon products. you and i have talked about, if china comes back, that is when you get into the triple digits for wti and brent. jon: the head of markets at kpmg. crude in the 90's right now. let's get straight to the price action.

features up about one third of 1% on the s&p. futures positive, yields lower by three basis points. euro-dollar around parity. negative a little bit on the euro. 91.15 on crude. facing the possibility of triple digit crude. tom: demand picks up, china comes back, and there we are about 100. jon: in overdrive in the last week on that topic. tom: on election day, hydrocarbons, dan yergin joins us.

vice chairman of s&p global. we can say there is a class of nations, both looking for the price, but more than anything, we consider the commanding heights of 2022. dan yergin joins us. commanding heights, the most optimistic modern treatment of capitalism that is out there. has the optimism evaporated? when you look at the commanding heights of america, have we given up the optimism? dan: certainly in the balance of confidence in markets has shifted. really since the financial crisis of 2008, reassertion of stronger government role across the economy. tom: lisa and jon want to jump in with some other questions. rmb a two party nation, are we

fracturing our historic two-party nation? dan: it is hard to see us not having a two-party system but we probably have a four party system. jon: we need to talk about how we are going to build on provider capacity in this country. republicans are pro fossil fuel, hoping to change the story, but a lot of us have our doubts about that. you know better than most that these companies make multi-decade decisions and no one is willing to make that decision right now. dan: i think you'll see some bottlenecking of refineries, some expansion, some building, but nobody will commit to a long-term investment because you don't know what the regulation will be. in recent years, regulations have encouraged people to shut down refineries. lisa: how does this change the political fault lines around the world?

india has refined a lot of oil from russia, exported it back to europe. how much is the u.s., europe willing to crack down on those types of partnerships that are getting closer when they need the ultimate product? dan: it will be difficult. india was importing less than 1% of its oil from russia a year ago, now 23%. just the other day ago, the foreign minister said russia was a time-tested partner. they are indicating that they are not going to go along with a price cap. although janet yellen is going to new delhi to encourage them to do that. this is a pretty strong assertion of their long-term relationship with russia. lisa: a columnist on bloomberg opinion talking about how five dollars gasoline is a big problem for democrats but not for drivers. our politician trying to adopt the case for fossil fuels when they really have little control over it?

dan: that is true. even talking about windfall profits, it is a global market with 100 million barrels a day. nevertheless, we know that gasoline prices have an outsized symbolic impact, as well as a real impact in terms of how people vote. jon: when was the last time you saw a relation between riyadh and washington as that is the right now? dan: i just came back from there and i would have to say it is pretty tense. there have been other periods, jamal khashoggi, but you can feel the palpable tension. the strategic interest, they do coincide. jon: do you think they can reconcile their differences? if not, what are the consequences? dan: ultimately, -- and i got into dialogues about that. i think ultimately the strategic

interest will coincide, but it is a rocky period right now. the cut in production one month before the u.s. election was very incendiary. the temperature has to be brought down because there are a lot of other big issues, including iran. tom: there is a new map, about the tradition, fear of america seen in isolationism. what does that look like right now with ukraine, the tension that john mentioned with saudi arabia? dan: we have reviewed both on our relationships with europe and asian partners. that part is different. this war is so uncertain. you can still have an accident that could carry it into a much more serious state. jon: final question but a tough one, so forgive me for asking it. this administration has found it difficult to square this circle. drill please, but also no more

drilling. how do they square that circle? dan: it is very hard. short-term, we want more oil, but long-term we need to get off of oil. if you are an investor, you are putting money in not just for tomorrow but the next few years. that along with all the battles with esg is hindering investment. production is up but not as much as people would have expected. lisa: this is a fascinating issue. it only means higher prices long-term. if you reduce supplies, the only thing that you can end up doing is factor price it out of existence, but that is not politically popular. dan: it's amazing to see the oil price lecture weights on whether -- the number of covid cases in china. you are missing may be a million a half barrels of demand from china. if you have that, we have a really tight market. tom: give us the one-year prediction on a gallon of gas.

dan: can we run out the clock on that one? [laughter] i think -- i was looking at our economic forecast for 2023. if the global economy is weak next year, that will put some price. there is probably a floor around 70, $80 a barrel. jon: he can see the clock. he is just hoping that it gets there quickly. fantastic to see you. great to have you with us. the wonderful dan yergin of s&p global. coming up, we can't be down to the opening bell with priya misra of td securities and more. i am told amh is making an appearance, too. this is bloomberg. ♪

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jonathan: it is election day in the united states, for our audience world wide, good morning, the countdown to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: