>> from the world of politics, to the world of business, this is balance of power with david westin. ♪ >> the -- this means you won't get strong action in terms of fiscal policy. >> we like uncertainty. >> it will be a small blip what we see in markets. >> in the background, you have quantitative tightening. >> underlying growth in chinese growth and european growth have gotten worse. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa

abramowicz. jonathan: live from the nation's capital for our audience worldwide, good morning, this is bloomberg surveillance on tv and radio. equity futures on the s&p are down about a quarter of 1%. it's the red wave that never was. tom: it's fascinating, the most interesting midterm election and the results still coming in and we will have them for the different sources but the answer is it is a divided america. jonathan: potentially a narrow margin in the house and we'll find out results hopefully a little later this morning or this afternoon step it comes down to four races. lisa: even on the democratic side, they were expecting more of a sweep than what we saw. the takeaway lies in donald trump and the motley performance of some of the candidates he backed but also this question of the nuances of different

regions. there is a disparate message being sent by different states and i think that is the take away from what we saw last night stop jonathan: let's talk about donald trump's future race because the campaign will start immediately. governor desantis in florida, what a margin, what a win. tom: you have to go back to reconstruction, the american civil war and reconstruction we're a democrat wasn't part of the party. it was a stunning across state victory. jonathan: november 15 is when we hear from president -- former president trump. lisa: we will follow all of that today. whether he can message this in a positive spin begets the point.

we are looking at a situation where people want to align with him as much. ron desantis will run and basically, he got a full green light to do so from the electorate yesterday. jonathan: the price action on the s&p 500, we will get news friday, monday and tuesday. futures are down right now and the 10 year is up slightly. crude oil is back in the 80's, slightly down. lisa: that's interesting because some of the rhetoric from analysts after the election was that the one area democrats and republicans could come together is on energy policy. it's a little bit quiet on the economic front ahead of that fed

speak tomorrow and the richmond fed president at 11:00 a.m. eastern in the minneapolis fed president speaking at 8 p.m. it will get more difficult and it's clear in the exit polls that people are concerned about the economy and inflation. how do they dovetail the fear of this downturn? there is 35 billion dollars in 10 year auctions. someone won the powerball but it's interesting because longer-term, the results from this election matter in terms of the inflation outlook. overnight, the new york fed president said long-term expectations are under control. how much do we start to see this in the auction? tom: are we more gridlock right

now than we were 24 hours ago? jonathan: as opposed to what? tom: the nation, i think it's tighter, it's polarized more. lisa: i would argue that is lest gridlock than people expected. they expected the president in this overwhelming red wave that came in and flooded the scene. you just made a face at me? tom: i think it will be fascinating. we've got a lot of people to talk to about this today. lisa: there are also earnings. there is this blowup of what happened. i'm talking about the idea that earnings are still a motley picture as well and you are seeing some of the high flyers come down dramatically.

jonathan: is gridlocky a word? tom: i think it is. jonathan: kaylee joins us in new york and anne-marie joins us from washington. these margins are much tighter than many people anticipated. anne-marie: the only one who could consider eight tsunamis governors dissenters. looking back at his speech in the crowd said two more years, governors in the united's states serve four-year terms but we are still waiting on votes to be counted and a lot of that will resume at 9:00 a.m. eastern and for the senate, it comes down to key races, arizona, nevada, wisconsin and of course georgia. this good end up as a runoff in

december. we've might not know for weeks. tom: tell me about the path of president trump. he has to manage the message to get to november 15 so what do you expect to hear from him? anne-marie: he is clearly worried. he said ron desantis could run if he wants to run but i have some information i could leak about him that he will not like. trump already feels he is on the back foot of mr. desantis in florida who, it was a tsunami. he won miami-dade county which is a county biden held by tens of thousands of votes. lisa: is there a larger takeaway? each different state is a different story in terms of what the electorate message. with respect to florida, what is the message being fed with the fact that miami-dade is turning republicans so decisively for

the first time in decades? anne-marie: this is what ron desantis leaned into, it has to do with the pandemic. he said he kept businesses functioning and your light continued and look where we are now. the rest of the country has followed what he would say is florida's lead but during that time, it was very controversial. jonathan: if there was a proxy war yesterday over the last month, it was in pennsylvania. kailey: this was an incredibly tight race coming into election day and the democrat john fetterman pulled it off, 93 percent of votes have been counted in pennsylvania and he held more than 50%. the reason why pennsylvania is such a bellwether state is because it is emblematic of the idea of liberal metropolitan areas and rural counties in the rest of the state and that's true in the east and west with

philadelphia and pittsburgh and red counties everywhere else but federman was able to flip the senate seat. this was a republican seat, that of retiring senator pat toomey so the flip to the democrats could be huge. the conversation you were just having about 2020 four influence of president trump,oz was in -- endorsed by trump. clearly, the connection with trump did not help them and this will raise the question of acceptance of results and concession because neither of the republican candidates have conceded their races yet even though they were called ahead of time. tom: the day after the election, i found fascinating, the importance of early voting.

what have you learned in pennsylvania about this speed with which we are getting to the importance of early voting? kailey: it definitely was huge here and election officials really downplayed the idea we could have resulted early because of a quantity of mail-in ballots which couldn't get counted until 7:00 a.m. election day. one point 2 million mail-in ballots were turned in. nearly one million were from registered democrats and only 300,000 were from registered republican so a huge democratic tilt when it comes to the mail-in voting. there were more than half a million ballots cast prior to the televised debates two weeks ago. that's one of the catalyst for seeing the tightening of the race leading up to election day. there were already a significant

amount of votes cast prior to that debate so that could have been something of a saving grace for federman in this race. jonathan: wonderful work, thank you. there will be an ongoing conversation about candidate quality and the candidates that got the nod from the former and those that missed out. i'm thinking about pennsylvania so where do we stand on that? lisa: we still have to wait because herschel walker was someone the former president back to don't know even though he's trailing at the moment. you also have j.d. vance who was able to -- tom: do you assume a runoff in georgia? anne-marie: i would assume that but we really don't know. we have to wait for the votes to be can't but that's what it looks like and it may come down to georgia in the end. jonathan: thank you both, not the race people expected. markets are ready to move on to this and get to cpi tomorrow.

lisa: we will not move on until december? jonathan: four weeks may be and it may go to a runoff. we will talk to credit suisse in the next hour with futures down on the s&p 500. from washington, d.c., this is bloomberg. lisa:lisa: keeping you up-to-date with news around the world, american voters have delivered a mixed verdict and midterm elections. republicans are headed to control of the house of representatives but by smaller margins than forecast and the senate is still up for grabs. democrats scored a big win in pennsylvania for john fetterman. he was elected over republican mehmet oz. j.d. vance turned back democrat tim ryan to keep ohio senate seat republican hands. georgia senate race was too close to call.

the race may be headed toward a runoff. in the u.k., what prime minister rishi sunak's close allies has resigned. the senior ministry gavin williamson resigned over allegations. he had been forced to resign from previous governments twice before. north korea has fired another ballistic missile, adding to speculation that it may be preparing for its first nuclear test in five years. south korea said the missile was launched over borders off the east coast of korea saturday and 23 missiles were fired, its biggest one-day barrage ever. disney is looking to cut costs after reporting results that fell short of expectations. the numbers wiped out about $15 billion in market value and losses in the consumer are more than doubled, driven by the disney+ streaming service and

profit at the company's theme parks fell short. facebook's parent meta-platforms confirmed it will cut 13% of its staff and the company will extend a hiring freeze during the first quarter. global news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> inflation is clearly far above what we one indicating that is our goal and that is our northstar that we are heading to an how we plan to do that is extremely important. jonathan: john williams, the new york fed president, from washington, d.c., this is the price action on the s&p 500. after the vote, the results still coming through, i changed -- unchanged and yields going nowhere on the 10 year. meta-is the one stuck to watch. mark zuckerberg takes full responsibility for lower revenue and they are cutting and cutting hard, 11,000 jobs across the company. the stock is up by 3.4%. tom: this baloney about teams, they don't have teams, they are

cutting. that's what they are doing. they can do silicon valley massage -- ohlone -- it's people's livelihoods. lisa: 13% of their staff and this is the biggest silicon valley cut so far. interesting for mark, saying he believed pandemic related e-commerce surge in the outside revenue growth would be a permanent deceleration. how many companies also assume this would be a permanent shift and it was not stop jonathan: access the last few years. are we unwinding the excess of the last few years? lisa: it's a great question. i point to some of those names after the market that will be reporting earnings because there are a number of companies that have an offended over the past 10 years of a shift in how much we are unwinding what we had just seen. jonathan: that's it is up

slightly more than 3% in the premarket. tom: we continue to look for results in the senate and the house in america. the associated press does the best job on exit polls. the wall street journal has it in real time which is fascinating. which best describes your family's financial situation? falling behind emma kratz, 34% and republicans 62% -- democrats, 34% and republicans 62%. let's dovetail this into the inflation report tomorrow. when does inflation help the 62% of republicans who say they are falling behind? >> i think inflation has already peaked. i think it will gradually fall and we are looking for 7/10 tomorrow because of energy but we might be at 7.9% or eight and

by march, i think we will down around five so inflation is falling but to your point, no one will notice. if you look at political leanings in this country which determines how people feel about the economy, republicans always feel worse about the economy when there is a democrat in the white house and vice verse out. 75% of americans believe the economy is in recession even though you talk to any economist, they say it's not true. how people feel about the condo me and what it is doing are two completely separate things. tom: among the habs, and the broad part of america that are have-nots, they have to recover from a air market. what is your 2023 strategy to begin a financial recovery? >> certainly, people are being hurt by the rising prices and

fiscal drag has slowed down a lot. for investors, the most important thing this year was inflation in the fiscal drag and prices. we are just putting out our long-term capital predictions yesterday and we are looking for about an 8% long-term gain out of equities in the u.s., more than 10% in europe and emerging markets and at the time to be overweight equities as an investor and i think bonds are back. it makes sense to have a slightly below average allocation but a strong one in fixed income so it's a time to get invested step there is a difference between what is going on in the economic dynamics and what people feel in the partisan nature of news coverage in this country. lisa: do you think there is anything in tomorrow's cpi report from the united states

that could change your assessment to go long on bonds and equities? >> i've been looking at the service sector inflation outside the housing market. if we see a big bump and things like inflation in restaurants and food in general, in a lot of household services, that would worry me a little bit. we are looking at all these numbers and what they tell us is outside of shelter, inflation is gradually falling. it's hard for me to be positive or to worry about bonds that much. the one thing coming out of this election is there will be no fiscal stimulus before 2025. the only game in town will be the federal reserve cutting interest rates and that's the big takeaway from gridlock. that means a more dovish fed

down the road. jonathan: if they choose to turn dovish. thank you so much as always. that's the debate we have been having over the last couple of weeks. we are seeing that gridlock was positive for equity markets but we said it might seem that weight now but in 12 months time, if the fed is determined to keep rates unchanged, we will have a different perspective. lisa: what's the mechanism to on dish to inflation especially because so many people point the finger at certain fiscal stimulus, exacerbating the inflation we have now. tom: the associated press poll, a large part of america worried about getting there next job. there is this polarization and it was said well in the new york times, there is a wealthy, educated elite democrat group is

a generalization and noncollege republicans as a generalization and that's the gross polarity. we talk about each and every day in the data but it's not just about the dow jones, it's about people's paychecks. jonathan: you always sound smart when you say it. this is evercore and if democrats hold onto senate control, it could look like purple haze. is it purple rain this morning? lisa: that's jimi hendrix. you knew that. ♪

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jonathan: your equity market this wednesday morning, trying to stage a comeback but we are almost unchanged on the s&p 500. yields are little bit higher on the front and of the two year

and the 10 year as well. in the fx market, your-dollar looks like this, just north of parity. the single name is meta-in the premarket rallying. it's positive by four percentage points as the facebook chief executive officer, mark zuckerberg apologizes and takes the blame for the revenue shortfall and dare i say the spending largess. on a serious note, the shift of emphasis of that company in the metaverse and the amount of spending that came with it is the focus of the earnings that came out in late october. that stock was down by more than 20% in a single session on spending way too much money. can he reclaim credibility with investors after making a move this morning to/11,000 people

from the workforce. lisa: i think this highlights how much you are seeing a retracement of what is some of the tech darlings we have seen blown up over the last 10 years but how much is meta-unique because facebook is not myspace or is this something and dimmick? tom: you mentioned that because your father was on myspace. lisa: i believe that there. tom: i believe it was called macintosh. that went down in flames. we will continue to follow this election. 172 democrats and 197 democrats and anne-marie will be with us through the morning. tomorrow morning at 830 a.m., an incredibly important inflation report.

the chief currency strategist at citigroup joins us now. what will disinflation due to the resilient dollar? >> we think it's a key driver for the dollar and broader markets. we have seen a big shift in sentiment on the dollar relative to last week even between thursday and friday of last week. all eyes are on tomorrow's reading and air economist have a slightly lower forecast than the consensus, like a .4 increase in core cpi. we think the recent dollar has further to go. we think we can get another 2% down in the dollar. tom: fremont around a major hair-like euro-dollar.

is it a big figure move if we get a disinflation in america? how many parts of the euro will go through parity? >> we are hanging above parity again and we think we get a low inflation number tomorrow, we will pass 101 but i think 104 is the next stop. it's a different picture from where we were last week and it's reflecting more china optimism and the idea that maybe the fed can take their foot off the gas pedal. also the luxury of looking into next year and allowing investors to maybe see a little bit more downside risk in the dollar over time and the economy normalizes and we think that's premature but i think that will be the theme tomorrow.

jonathan: i'm not convinced the end of hiking is the same as the end of tightening. even if the end of hiking interest rates and they pause for the economy rolls over and they don't do anything, isn't the fed still tightening in that environment? >> absolutely, we are on the same page. that's relevant for the equity market, you usually have two phases of the bear market and the first is monetary policy tightening and the second is earnings compression. that's very much our expectation. when it comes to fx, you have two stages in the first is when do global rates peak and that's usually around the time of the last fed rate hike stop i think that has importance for forex markets and it's a tradable

dollar correction but it's not usually the dollar turned which will come later when you see the turnaround. jonathan: is the source for the taller -- the dollar turn abroad and not domestic? >> it's a good question and i think right now, we may think so. it's premature but the focus as of late is maybe some expectation of an easing of restrictions and not really reopening. it would be a bottoming of sentiment around china. there is a little bit of hope that some of the market concerns around the country related tensions could abate over time. when it comes to the durable trend, the emphasis will be outside the u.s. when it comes to the tightening, the fed is the most important factor globally. lisa: are you saying that this election in gridlock doesn't do anything to the dollar and it has to be the drivers of the fed

but more so the stock piles in europe? >> yes, i would generally agree. we think inflation and broader risks are for more important drivers of the dollar than this political consideration in the u.s. historically, the dollar appreciated into year end. it is a risk premium for u.s. assets and you tend to see that in equity prices as well but we don't think we see a decisive outcome and this year is not like most. there are bigger developments in the macro lens outside of the u.s. he economy. there won't be dual indications from the midterm elections even when we know the core results. lisa: mark mccormick was speaking about the rumors of

china perhaps reopening but they have been rumors that haven't come to for wishon and a meaningful way. he said that if there is a material reopening, you could see a 5-6% weakening in the dollar three year end and more through the remainder of 2023. how likely is that scenario and on the off chance it happens, do you see a commensurate type of weakening? >> don't expect a breakthrough in reopening into year end and even seasonally. that would be hard to imagine but the idea that investors position for next year and generally speaking, longer-term investors would like to be exposed to cheap assets and maybe high carrying assets. from both of those perspectives, the dollar doesn't look as attractive as it has all year. if inflation and the fed allows investors to position in that way, we could see a continuation

with maybe not five or 6% but possibly two or 3% with a soft cpi reading. what we have seen over the last week particularly with china related assets was not so much counting on a big reopening in the short-term, it was pricing out some of the extreme pessimism we have seen when it comes to china. that's the bigger theme across markets, big risk reduction, away from the big teams we saw this year and that was dollar strength. even we have seen rates volatility come down over the last few days so it's mostly risk reduction so far. jonathan: thanks for being with us today. looking at fed speak a little later. we haven't seen a major split just yet. tom: maybe neel kashkari of

minnesota will drive that forward. jonathan: that's what i was waiting for, to see if someone said i agree with the news conference and not the statement or vice versa but i haven't seen that at all over the last few days. lisa: i can imagine you have seen that because we have seen a loosening of financial conditions most of that conversation is over even though we have a five point 1% terminal rate. that's what the feeling and markets is is that the fed's next shift -- you seen an incredible rally in high yields in stocks in a weaker dollar and we've seen rates become more stable. this is not screaming fear so wide with the fed back away from its hawkish and us? jonathan: we will look at the next cpi prints because tomorrow is the last one before the

federal reserve needs. you get another one in december. tom: at the december meeting, do we get a new forecast and dot plot? jonathan: that will be in december. i think we are priced to hear the report by chairman powell is this september meeting bumped up the dot they are maybe expecting a five handle from this fed. lisa: that's fully priced, if it comes in, people will say -- see that is being dictated by jay powell and that's the most interesting thing about the rhetoric from analysts. they are saying that we know it's coming from the fed and we price it in and they will have to drop rates next year, let's get going. jonathan: i'm not sure anyone in

the fed is saying kumbaya. tom: kumbaya ♪ lisa: why are we doing this? let's go to break. jonathan: coming up, from washington, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word, i am lisa mateo. the republican wave and midterm elections that was supposed to undo the biden presidency did not arrive. it appears the gop is likely to win the house of representatives but the majority will be smaller than expected and democrats could still retain the senate step democrats scored a big win in pennsylvania were john fetterman was elected to the senate over men it cause. j.d. vance turned back to democrat tim ryan to keep an

ohio senate seat in republican hands in the georgia senate race was too close to call and raphael warnock and republican herschel walker may be headed toward a runoff. russian diplomats are trying to dial back that the kremlin might use nuclear weapons against ukraine. they say that nuclear weapons would be used only if the existence of the country was at stake. the u.s. and russia are preparing to resume nuclear arms negotiations within the coming weeks. massive job cuts are set to begin at meta-platforms. mark zuckerberg says the company will cut more than 11,000 jobs which is a 13% reduction in staff stop it's the first major round of layoffs in meta-history . they have had disappointing earnings and a slide in revenue. there are extended declines in cryptocurrencies.

bitcoin fell as much is 5.4% wednesday after near 10% drop a day earlier. many companies also slumped. global news, 24 hours a day and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> the american people are ready for a majority that will offer a new direction, that will put america back on track, republicans are ready to deliver. it's a new direction towards an economy that is strong, where you can fill up your tank and feed your family or your paychecks grow and not shrink. jonathan: that majority is not guaranteed and the party that kevin mccarthy was looking to host did not materialize. equity futures are about unchanged on the s&p 500.

maybe the sound of the night, governor desantis in florida. tom: explain it. jonathan: the chant was two more years and the full-term is not two years. tom: there was a collective shock stop jonathan: a 20 point margin that was absolutely crushing. tom: miami dade county. jonathan: we talked about the prospect of former president donald trump making another run and may be that november 15 and i said maybe the unhappiest man in america is governor desantis as he wakes up to that news. after last night, he comes out of this more shiny. good research to be had. tom: as we look to inflation tomorrow and we see finance and

investment on this global day, we go to washington. we all have our individual statistic in mind comes from the wonderful associated press exit poll service they do, the depth of it that in florida, latinos voted 52% for the gop. is the latino expansion happening much quicker than anybody believed? >> good morning and thanks for having me. in florida, you are seeing that expansion but is not as a surly elsewhere. i would point arizona and nevada, two states that also have large latino populations that are not nearing that trend. we are considering that every republican on the east coast was affected by covid and that's what you are seeing now. it's positive for desantis and rubio but not necessarily others.

tom: what is your capital look like a month from now? what does the washington you know so will look like? >> they will be tired because the lame-duck will be insane is my expectation. now that republicans have not wo n in a red wave. it was the worst showing for minority powell -- party i can think of since 2002 and that would require an act of war. the 2023 congress will be lucky if they have a speaker and it will be difficult to govern. that's optimistic for the lame-duck session. it will be tough. tom: i'm assuming mccarthy is a shoo-in but i'm wrong? lisa: that's what i was going to ask. how much is this up for grabs? >> we don't have the final vote tallies in the house yet but he could be eight votes shy of

becoming speaker next year and it requires 208 votes. it could be that some democrats cross the line to vote for him but i sincerely doubt that stop mccarthy will have a lot of people coming for his spot, namely jim jordan. lisa: what does it say about donald trump as leader of the republican party? >> that the american voters will not vote for him the third time either. i think this was a problematic night for donald trump. he is set to declare on the 15th but i wouldn't be surprised if he reassesses. he's got 10 days to file if he wants to seriously campaign again and he's down on fundraising against desantis and down on republican support by 7% versus the last time he ran and down by 12 points with independence. it would be ill-advised and you will hear that from a lot of folks today. lisa: when you look at the exit

polls, everyone was concerned about the economy. inflation was the preeminent issue. how much does this speak to other drivers of people to the polls like the social issues are other concerns not necessarily typically what people vote for which is there pocket book. >> you are looking at a percent inflation, five dollars gas and you will still keep the majority party in congress? it is a huge referendum and they need to focus on serious issues and answers to the american public about how they will bring gas prices down. the spr release has worked to an extent and voters are smarter than i think republicans give them credit for. that will be something that republicans need to reassess today. if you are going to come into an election as a minority party and not win the senate out right or the house outright and perhaps have the lowest showing in an 8%

inflation environment, you need to reassess your message. jonathan: what time does joe biden announce he is running? tom: that's the question of the day. >> i think of donald trump does not run, biden will also not run. we could be facing a situation in america where it's unprecedented where we have two human beings that could run again and choose not to. the biden decision depends on the trump decision and i think there will be some serious reassessing going on today. jonathan: that decision comes november 15. are you suggesting that it might not come at all? >> i know i am wildly out of consensus but is been my idea that the polling and fundraising dollars are sending a message that president trump cannot run again. last night proved it again and i think he is facing serious threats from desantis and mike pompeo came out in favor of

desantis and his own way and vice president pence is also planning on running. i think there will be a lot of challenges in the republican party. jonathan: thank you so much. tom: having henrietta on is a breath of fresh air where the you agree or disagree with her. it's a breath of fresh air versus the nonstop punditry. she is great about the specificity of what goes on. jonathan: let's talk about the -- what was the word again? specificity. november 15, are we saying he will not make the announcement when it sounded like a preannouncement? tom: i will leave that up to people smarter than me but lisa commented on mccarthy of california and the legit national champion wrestler jim jordan of western ohio and the common fabric there is they are

huge to the former president, particularly congressman jordan. lisa: what happens if donald trump announces that presidential run on november 15 and loses and ron desantis wins or is not necessarily the frontrunner? what does joe biden do? do the democrats need joe biden to be donald trump if his ratings were not really showing any particular game for the democrats which is the reason this was so surprising? jonathan: it will be an interesting couple of weeks. lisa: specificity. jonathan: that's a nice word. equity futures are down1/10 of 1%. tom: it's five syllables, not bad. jonathan: an interview with credit suisse up next, this is bloomberg. ♪ is the planning effect. this is how it feels to know you have a wealth plan that covers everything that's important to you.

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>> a divided government means you will not get very strong action in terms of things like fiscal policy. >> we like gridlock because it gives us certainty in a sense. > i think the midterm elections will be a small blip than what we see in markets. >> in the background, you have quantitative tightening.