>> everyone is tired of hearing

this but it's all about inflation. >> gasoline prices have been outsized impact in terms of how people vote. >> inflation will move down but not enough to get us back to 2%. >> we expect the fed to get to at least 4.75, if not five, and then to hold. >> we are lacking strong conviction, and that as to the volatility of the market. >> this is bloomberg surveillance. tom: good morning, everyone. bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro, tom keene, lisa abramowicz. let's get right to it. it is not america decides, it is america undecided. jon: it is a tight race in the house. we all expected to wake up and say the house would be republicans, the senate is tight. both chambers are tight and it is going down to the wire. tom: if the president was coming

out of 10 downing street, he would be cheering this morning. this has to be a good evening for the president of the united states. jon: relative to what we were expecting, absolutely. a fantastic night for governor desantis in florida. the former president went after one guy in the last couple of days, and it was that guy. he absolutely crushed it. tom: what we are seeing early this morning, how does president trump readjust and recalibrate? we do all of this with a senate undecided, but a shock, the house is undecided. lisa: it is hard to get a real narrative going here that gives you a sense of exactly how things will skew in 2024. i want to go to something jon was talking about in the last couple of weeks, the democratic

candidates who had not won in the past, running again, beto o'rourke, stacey abrams, both lost again. this small raise the question of how you choose the candidates that you and the running, on the democratic and republican side? tom: tomorrow's inflation report matters. from all the interviews that we have had this morning, the political interviews goes back to how your oil, further inflation, a gallon of gas where it is, and what it means for the fabric of the country. jon: let's go back to something you said about the president having a better night. the fact that you have a inflation at a 40 year high and approval ratings that are low, and still trying to work out all of this, relative to all of that this is a huge win. tom: 8:03 washington time.

people waking up. what are we looking for today? lisa: honestly, the tea leaves for tomorrow. from a market perspective, this is not conclusive in any way. today, we will see the votes trickle in, not necessarily going to see a result in georgia, but the rest of the election people will be watching. tom: let's go to the data check. this is the two year yield migration to 5%. 5% is a political statistic as well as a market statistic. jon: let's start with equities. down .1% on the s&p. almost unchanged. the nasdaq just about positive. 10's, 4.1321. you want to talk about the politics, we need to talk about economics. we have seen the hiking cycle.

400 basis points in eight months or so from this federal reserve. now we need to wait for the economic consequences of that, and just starting to see the signs of it, layoffs in big tech. tom: mill learned that from fed speak today? jon: i don't think so. we have a lot tomorrow, then the cpi, and then the big december meeting. has anyone dared press enter on their outlook for the year? usually for this time of year i am working out the 2023 outlook. nobody wants to press enter on that right now. lisa: unless it is a big cloud with lightning going through it. is it just a big question mark? jon: i think they are written. someone will have to do a lot of editing between now and the december meeting. if it was me, i would not be

pressing enter until after the december meeting. tom: let's get to it with jim paulsen, chief investment strategist at the leuthold group. the politics always expected in traditional, not shattered, but so different. from the scandinavian northwest of another time and place, it is a whole new world after all. what does the political world look like for you this morning? jim: i guess i would say, after going through all of this, all of the expectations, wondering how it will come out, we may end up essentially where we were before the elections. if we even have a mild gridlock as a result of the republicans gaining the house, it is not going to be a big majority.

it seems to me that we will be back to the same place we were the last two years. i don't know if a lot has changed. certainly a lot of political ramifications, how the republicans could have done better in an environment of anxieties, a president with a very low approval rating, says something about the problem on that side of the party. as far as the economic, market ramifications, i don't know if it changes much. as long as there is gridlock, the market will be ok with it. jon: lisa asked the question moments ago, how relevant is midterm seasonality, given we are thinking 2023 may be a recession year? jim: historically, you look at the midterms, the markets do better after that. i just don't think this time it

will carry much weight one way or the other. i don't know. i think there are too many other important issues that will wag the dog here, if you will, as we look into 2023. i heard your comments about sending the 2023 outlook. i agree, it is so difficult with so many balls up in the air over all. i think people will focus in on other issues other than the election as their primary drivers for the outlook for next year. lisa: you have been optimistic. you say there has been a lot of bad news already pressed into this market. a lot of people would agree with you. others would push back and say 5% fed funds rate, i we really accounting for the potential damage to the economy from that? how do you counter that argument? jim: lisa, i think it's interesting to reflect on the

fact that the stock market, the s&p 500 today is above its june the lows, flat for the past five months. it fell for the first five and a half months and has been flat since. when you think about what we have dealt with over that period of time -- at that time we had a 1% funds rate, now it is at 4. in june, i don't think a lot of people would have thought that they would get to 4% this year, but they did. the stock market is still in the same place. the 10-year yield went from 3.75 to 4.2. over that time we had a lot of nasty inflation reports that scared us to death. we had a constant scare from the fed cabal on a regular basis. then the corporate community came forward, reinforce the idea that we would head for an imminent recession, but here we are.

tech companies reported disappointing earnings. my point about all of this is, i think the market has discounted a lot. what will come that is worse than what they have already gone through, the market has shown they are discounting much of what they were expecting. as an investor, there are some favorable things that can happen. we have a market that is 25% off of their highs. that is discounting a lot of bad stuff that is coming. a market below its average valuation since 1990. terrible sentiment on wall street and main street, which is typically a good thing for the contrarian. some favorable things. heading into recession, typically, we have high confidence, and then we destroyed that in the recession which makes it deep and elongates it. we don't have it. we are reviving confidence because inflation is coming down as we head into a slower period.

following confidence have been bad for stocks. rising confidence is good. i think confidence will be rising in the next year. one of the lowest year on year liquidity growth rates in modern history. that will start to rise, mainly because it cannot go lower, but real growth will pick up. as the economy slows, it will throw off excess liquidity. we have been dealing with declining liquidity for more than a year, now heading for better liquidity, which is good for financial markets. inflation peaks typically have been good for returns in the stock market in the coming year. the last thing i would throw out, what if we don't recess? when if we managed to stay with a positive growth rate next year? let's say we slow to 1%, but we do not recess. then earnings do not collapse. then this whole thing turns into

a midcycle correction and sought landing. i think there are some reasons to be somewhat optimistic. jon: that sounded bullish, never mind optimistic. who invited jim on the show? thank you. wonderful. jim paulsen of the leuthold group. the outlook for 2023, i would love to be a fly on the wall of those banks right now. from washington, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. the republican wave in midterm elections that were supposed to undo the pride and did not arrive. it appears the gop is likely to win the house of representatives but the majority will be smaller than expected, and democrats could still retain the senate. democrats scored a big win in pennsylvania, where john fetterman was elected to the senate over celebrity tv host minute awes.

j.d. vance turned back tim ryan to keep that senate seat in republican hands. the georgia senate races too close to call. raphael warnock and herschel walker may be headed for a runoff. russian diplomat's are trying to dial back fears that the kremlin may use nuclear weapons against ukraine. in a note circulating among diplomats, they say nuclear weapons would be used only if the existence of the country was at stake. meanwhile, the u.s. and russia are prepared to resume nuclear arms negotiations in the coming weeks. massive job cuts are set to come at meta platforms. mark zuckerberg says the company will cut more than 11,000 jobs, a 30% reduction in staff. it is the first major round of layoffs and meta-'s history. mortgage rates in the u.s. resumed an upward trend last week toward a two decade high.

according to the mortgage bankers association, the rate on a 30 year home loan climbed to just over 7.1%, the highest since 2001. an index every activity fell to a 22-year low. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪ returning to the office,

we need our paranormal services to be more versatile. flexible working needs flexible technology. i know a group who can help us. not those new age shamans again. i'm talking world-class business experts. data geeks, strategists, tax advisors, the works. i do like data geeks. what about technologists? 40,000 strong, baby. who are these people? it's ey, believe it or not. can they help us build remote ghost-to-cloud tech? oh yeah. they've invested over $2 billion dollars in innovation in high tech data and analytics. the best of both worlds. that's our motto! actually, that's end-to-end transformation. we'll be able to hit our projections both fiscal and astral. and we'll have the tools to be more nimble wherever we go: home, tombs, caves, catacombs, you name it. this company sounds great. what do you think, agnes? looks like it's unanimous.

>> i think if donald trump does

not run come biden will also not run. we could be facing a situation in america that is unprecedented where we have two human beings that could run again and chooses not to. i think biden's decision is based on trump's decision. jon: and we are expecting trump's decision on november 15, at least that is but we were led to believe. live from washington, here is some of the price action for you going into the opening bell. one hour and 12 minutes away. the inflation report, tomorrow morning. equity futures, negative a third of 1%. 4.1426 the 10-year. tom: i would suggest and maybe one hour we will start to get some results on this historic election. to frame set out for us this

morning, annmarie hordern. we are going down to florida to meet with the governor. the boom of miami, all the northerners moving down. we are staying at the caroline wellness miami resort. how is the level of wellness of governor desantis this morning? >> he is the winner of this entire election because of the margin. it was nearly 20 points. he carried miami-dade. this is a county that is a democratic stronghold. it was very obvious he had a good night. the chants are two more years. his constituents want him to run for president and already there is a duel between him and the former president. tom: how does he separate himself? annmarie: four years ago, the

former president really elevated him, helped his reelection bid, but in the past two years you some more of this feud. now it is blowing up. the former president calling him ron desactimonious. he is offering republicans that may be the former president would offer but in a more statesman weight. look at how he handled the hurricane recently. lisa: which raises the question, why did ron desantis overwhelm while the rest of the republicans underwhelm? annmarie: it's a good question. in florida, it has to do with the big issue, the pandemic. he was really steadfast about keeping businesses and schools open. that resonated.

also the fact that he has become a rock star for the republican party. floridians know that. he is not just for florida, he is out campaigning trying to help other republicans. lisa: is it a candidate issue, the quality of candidates? or do they have to attack certain policies and not go for as much the other rhetoric? annmarie: my think it is mixed. one, he is a known candidate that people like in florida, policies that republicans in florida like, as well as some moderates. so he is not a republican in the way that you have the michigan candidate, the way the former president was backing. this is not on the fringes so much. jon: four states, wisconsin, nevada, georgia, arizona. arizona has a democratic incumbent. walk us through what is on the line here on the senate race. annmarie: those are the four key

senate races. georgia will likely be a runoff, so put that off to december. arizona and the bottom, we have to wait for the votes to come in. a lot of mail-in ballots, and this could take time. wisconsin right now is leaning toward johnson to be republican. what you want to focus on this morning, if georgia is in december, this morning it comes down to arizona and nevada. tom: it seems like we are getting there quicker. annmarie: 2045? i don't know where i will be then. tom: the demographics are shifting. to me, it's all happening faster than expected. annmarie: i'm interested to see the demographics. one analyst said that there would be more gen z voters coming out for the democrats, more than millennials.

what does that mean for the candidate that you need to put up in 2024? in your case, time, 2045. also a first gen z lawmaker elected in this race going to congress. jon: republicans will say by 2045, they'll be paying taxes and change their mind. tom: when we go down to see governor desantis, we can stay at that wellness resort. annmarie: i like the one hotel miami. more of a party. tom: there is more of a chance that you are at the wellness retreat that the party hotel. lisa: fountain blue? annmarie: he is a pina colada,

beach. climbing is actually all about the legs. tom: what is interesting, with the time we have left, florida is a boom economy. that is interesting that this guy won. lisa: how are you talking about 2045 with everything going on? tom: america shifts out summer in the vicinity of 2045. i think we're are getting there faster than we thought. jon: thank you, annmarie. i think she is going to come back. discuss the midterms of this year. equity futures on the s&p down have a present. this time tomorrow talking about one thing, cbi in the u.s. that report comes at 8:30

eastern time tomorrow morning. that should dictate the sentiment until the next cbi print which is right before the payrolls report. one week after that and then before the fed meeting. a lot packed into december. payrolls, cbi, and then the fed. tom: also the news from china dovetailed into it. jon: if i was writing the 2023 outlook, the front would read, if china stays close, and the back would read if china stays -- reopens. lisa: and you could drive a truck through the estimates. jon: jon: in march, you find it when you were wrong about pretty quickly in the first quarter. live from washington, d.c., this is bloomberg. ♪

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jon: 60 minutes away from the opening bell. the s&p 500 down a 1%. session those on the s&p. just off on the nasdaq as well. euro-dollar holding onto parity.

down half of 1%. body else higher. higher on the 10-year, 4.17. yields upcoming dollar stronger, equities weaker going into the opening bell. tom: going into the inflation report tomorrow. we have to underscore, that report tomorrow is anticipated. jon: the equity market bulls want to see a deceleration in month or month inflation. give me something. then give me a little bit more again in december ahead of the payrolls, ahead of the fed meeting, and then tee up the federal reserve to have a difficult and maybe. tom: we will go live tomorrow at 8:30 on that. lara rhame, chief economist at fsjv. do you presume that dis

inflation is rapid and suddenly, or will there be a duration? lara: i definitely think inflation may have peaked, but the descent will be gradual and far from steady. you are looking at key components, the cat is out of the bag, they are significantly higher. you are seeing it across sectors. it is not one area that we could cherry pick, like them was it was on the way out. on the way up, we could pick out clear single drivers. on the way back down the picture is much more uncertain. tom: should the federal reserve care about rent and homeownership statistics? lara: 100%. that is the kind of inflation that make people go to their

bosses and say my rent just went up 10%, i'm on a 10% increase. even if that never comes down to 5%, even 3%, that is significantly higher than inflation. increasingly, going forward, while we will still focus very heavily on the cpi numbers, we will start focusing on the wage numbers. that is something people are already watching, but there is no way to declare victory on inflation when wages are at 4%, 5%. that is also much higher than what the fed wants to see. lisa: we were just speaking with annmarie about the election, saying inflation was at the forefront of people's minds, but they still have jobs. they are not concerned about their chances of being employed. when does that change? lara: this is one of the key issues i got all the time, how is the economy doing? while we are still stagnant on the job front, we are still racing ahead with an increased

was strong jobs market. jobs market is a lagging indicator. i think the jobs market stays strong until the middle of next year. i put the economy on solid footing for the first half of next year, and i think the fed will have to continue to raise rates past what markets currently anticipate as their finish line, a little over 5% for the fed. i think they may have to go further. i think they want to wait and see the labor market really break. here is the problem. given the last downturn, companies are going to be more cautious about laying off workers. you have the headlines in silicon valley right now, very different from what you are seeing in small businesses on a week by week basis in the u.s. lisa: we were speaking with adp about this, that tech companies are a small subset.

we have been arguing about if this is the beginning of something broader or just a specific issue to the tech sector. where do you see the job losses broadening out in the middle of next year? how substantial will that be given the reluctance of you spoke about, companies not want to cut staff? lara: when you look at the fact that we have lost -- we are still hiring back a lot of the lower productivity jobs. one of the problems there is significant migration due to the pandemic. you still have localities where so my people have moved, you cannot get the service jobs hired fast enough to accommodate the fact that some of these populations have really swelled. that mismatch continues to keep pressure on the labor market to stay strong. tom: in the ap exit polls, which are really informative, they

showed a massive divide over the question are you confident you can get the next job? republicans are less confident. let's call it rural, ex-urban, but are there two america's in the job economy, and does the fed have to react to two america's, or one america? lara: the on employment rate is low all over the place. when i say that, there is obvious divergence in regions. overall it is lower than it was during the pandemic, and has really come down significantly, matching where we were pre-pandemic. the real issue is the fed doesn't have the luxury of possibly considering two america's. their policies are not targeted enough. at the end of the day, they are looking at this broad average. what they have shown what they want to do is to keep the job

market strong enough so that hopefully it can, over time, pull some of the locality struggling in line with the better localities. it is hard to say if that focus on the strong labor market will change. they have shown it has to if they want to get on top of inflation. tom: we saw this yesterday with welch in vermont. if you go over to white river junction, a near depression 30 years ago, it was run down and brutal. they're on appointment rate is 2% now. lisa: i was thinking about what lara said, if you start to see the layoffs in the middle of next year, since we are talking about politics in washington, what does that do to share the narrative in 2024? tom: this goes to the idea of what biden and trump will do, but it will be tick by tick.

lisa: lara, i love your sense of this, that you don't think the unemployment rate could rise all that much. where do you think we are heading? what kind of pain threshold are you thinking the fed will acknowledge in order to get inflation back to its target? lara: pretty significantly higher. i think we are heading to somewhere near 5%. the fed is notoriously bad about micromanaging where the on employment rate goes. we are in a different labor market then we were 20 years ago when the fed started fine-tuning these wage, phillips curve models they have, so closely linked to inflation. the reality is, markets and companies have had to come to terms with the facts that you cannot just flip a switch and get these employees back. tom was talking about demographics earlier.

it is the often ignored tectonic plates that drive a lot of these factors, one reason why it will cause the risk of a fed overshoot. they will continue to have to step on the brake much harder to move that unemployment rate. jon: lara rhame of fs investments. basically, inflation is stickier on the way up that it is on the way down. if you believe inflation will not fall as quickly as it rose, then you have a difficulty. i would go one step further. i think a lot of people out there believe the fed has committed to overshooting. there was evidence of that in the press conference to be ago. lisa: the biggest risk is inflation expectation becoming onboard. -- unmoored. they don't want to get back to the back-and-forth that we saw in the 1970's. there is a lot of concerns about that.

tom: this is just published, associated press, doing a phenomenal job on the mood of the country. the economy. 66% excellent four years ago. 43% excellent two years ago. 22% excellent. one third of what it was four years ago. jon: we are having this conversation about the midterm results relative to the numbers you just went through. tom: i could go on and on. you don't want to listen to me, but other than that. four years ago, 4% toward biden. two years ago, 5% toward the democrats. this year, back 7% for the republicans. lisa: every note that i have gotten this morning, republicans lost. it is not clear that the

democrats won, but the republican did not gain the way they should have based on where the incumbent president is, as well as what you are seeing in the economy. tom: we will be here through the morning on radio and television. let's stop and pontificate on british politics. your thoughts in washington over -- lisa and i have witness this through our lives. what do you think of this? jon: how long have i lived in america now? tom: five years? lisa: you just got off the plane. [laughter] how is america? tom: i have never seen an election like this in modern history. it is absolutely original. jon: what is interesting about this one is how it shapes the race for 24. the results last night of governor desantis crushing it in

florida, pushing back against former president donald trump. there is some soul-searching to be done in the republican party. tom: is new york threatened? jon: the president has to go up to new york. you believe there is a problem. we thought there was a problem, but seemingly there was not. lisa: the margin was pretty narrow. jon: but we were thinking about a loss. equity down half of 1%. from the foreigner, in washington, d.c., this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up to date with news from around the world, with the first word, i'm lisa mateo. there was no red wave in the midterm elections yesterday. the gop hope to capitalize on president biden's low approval ratings and swap the democrats in congress. republicans appear to have likely taken the health but with a narrow majority. and the senate is still up for grabs.

democrats quote a big win in pennsylvania where john fetterman was elected to the u.s. senate over tv celebrity mehmet o. j.d. vance turned back tim ryan to keep an ohio senate seat republican. georgia senate race was too close to call. raphael warnock and republican herschel walker may be headed toward a runoff that could decide the fate of the senate. north korea has five another ballistic missile, adding to speculation it may be preparing for its first nuclear test in five years. south korea said the missile was launched toward waters off of north korea's east coast. last week, the regime's are -- fired up 23 missiles, it's biggest one-day garage ever. american basketball star brittney griner is being moved to a russian penal colony, according to her lawyers. her appeal against a drug sentence for drug smuggling was rejected last month. the white house says it

continues to follow up with russia to secure her release. global news 24 hours a day, on-air, and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> what has been disturbing to me is the number of people, particularly, frankly on that side of the house republicans, who have said if they don't get their way on a whole set of issues, they will send the country into people by not willing to raise the debt limit. jon: doing the debt ceiling debate stop all over again. that was larry summers, the former treasury secretary. equities right now on the s&p down one third of 1%.

big conversation this morning about cuts. 11,000 people going at meta. redfin, let's talk about housing. laying off 13% of staff. lisa: they had this home flipping business that they are now shutting down, where they used algorithms to determine the worth of a home. things that move too quickly away from them and their inventory. i will get the details so i can make sure i lay it out correctly, but the fact that they are cutting 30% of staff, after already -- 13% of staff, after already having cuts, where do we end? this is not just a tech company. we expect to hear things from disney, the entertainment business. how much will this be a theme? tom: i don't think we can manage the 3.5% mortgage change to

7.5%. jon: how does the investor committee meeting start? i have asked the question over the last couple of weeks. rates have gone up 400 basis points in the last eight months. is it two years worth of excess or a decade? which one is it? they are hoping it is two years. the call on the duration and depth of the downturn, particularly depth, is not a downturn that we have seen in the last two years. tom: is governor bailey onto something modeling a two-year recession? jon: let's take the midterm results. most people assume on the margin gridlock. let's go with that for the moment. objectively trying to engineer a downturn. if you believe fiscal policy is constrained, shouldn't we be having a different conversation about the duration of the downturn?

if i don't know where the circuit breakers are coming from, it raises questions. tom: raises questions about the x axis, political discussions of the moment. right now, we are talking about the walt disney company. ex media analyst for bloomberg intelligence. what was the distinctive point as disney manages the collapse of streaming profitability? i saw warner bros. discovery tip under $10 a share, 67% debt right now. disney is doing better, but how much better? >> disney is doing better but that is not good enough. we did have streaming losses that came in at $4 billion for fiscal 2022. yes, they promised improvement, but remember, i guidance they issued 42023 came in well below expectations.

there is no way to sugarcoat this. this will be an extreme he difficult fiscal 2023 for the walt disney company. lisa: reducing inefficiencies, trying to streamline costs. what is the job cutting picture you expect from disney? >> they didn't talk too much about job cutting itself. in terms of streaming profitability, what they are looking to do, first of all, improve the topline growth. they can do that with a 38% increase in prices, new advertising tier, but they are also looking for rationalize market expenses. that is where a lot of the cost-cutting will come, apart from optimization of their content expenses, which will be roughly $32 billion over the next few years. lisa: remember when we were talking about content being king? the idea of how much we are retrenching what a norm has been over the past eight years, when

netflix was sucking up all of the content. how much will we see a reversal of that? >> i don't necessarily think we will see a reversal. these companies still need to spend big on content if they need to attract and retain subscribers. what we will see is they will be very selective in choosing projects. previously, netflix would go after everything and see what sticks, take these wild swings. now they have gathered enough data to see exactly what their audience wants, so they will be much more disciplined about it. tom: what does it mean for the creative process in hollywood? do they go into recession? do they ignore this? i am using these almost in a global sense. how does hollywood react to what is happening at disney? >> it will definitely be a tough environment. we are still going to see about $150 billion spent on content in fiscal 2023.

so there is still a lot of money out there. but at the same time, we are not seeing these companies greenlight all projects, so there is definitely that sense of some amount of discipline. they are being pretty selective. i think we will see that come into hollywood also. having said that, there is 1.i want to make. we are seeing lots of profitability pressures in the streaming business, but the studio business has done well. one positive coming out of this, most studios are now going to go for that theatrical release. there was a debate about going direct to streaming. i think they realize that theatrical window gives them good profits. we have seen that across the board in q3 results. jon: as always, thank you. disney down this year 35% before the losses in the premarket. netflix down by 56% year to date.

tom: it is profitability to me. it has been my religion. i just don't understand the business. maybe i am a fossil, waiting around to watch julie andrews from years ago, but the modern cinema business, i don't get it. you have seen top gun five times? jon: no one takes a risk with original movies anymore. they just do the avengers volume 50. you have to risk the costs around the marketing. just say there is a new avengers coming out and it grosses millions. tom: i just don't get it. jon: i am with you. lisa: you accuse me of being bearish, and then you say why do people even have entertainment these days? first of all, about the movie theater business, movies have actually done well. geetha was saying that actually big studios are doing well because they get money when they release these films.

people want to go to the theaters. tom: you look at julia roberts and cary grant, they are going to do another movie. jon: tom cruise will be 80 making another top gun. i remember my favorite fixed income columnist from a while ago. she used to write about content at the cost of content, how there is cheap available credit for these guys to spend lots of money on content. that was the business model. i wonder how much that changes. i used to enjoy that. tom: we should do this more often. jon: she was awesome. lisa: now a total sellout. tom: we should do this every 10 days. jon: 2045?

>> everything you need to get started for u.s. trading, this is bloomberg the open with jonathan ferro. ♪ jonathan: