>> there is some evidence we are moving from peak inflation down lower. where do we end up is the big question. >> we are still overall and a very elevated inflation environment. >> even if the fed is going to pay that they will not talk about a pivot. >> there is no fed member that wants to go down in history is losing the fight on inflation area >> the problem is i don't think we discounted the weakness in the economy coming. announcer: this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: live from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning.

this is an berke surveillance on tv and radio alongside tom keene i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures up .4% on the s&p, the mount up of yesterday, what a move. tom: for those that do not have the bloomberg terminal, i've never seen what i witnessed yesterday on the short cover at 8:30 which continues through the day and to me that is the message is that it continues through the day, we finished strong and we start this morning with spx futures up 16. jonathan: let's start with the index level stuff, s&p up. then let's go to the single names, apple up 8.9 percent, microsoft up more than 8%. alphabet rallying hard, amazon up 11% in yesterday's session area these were monster moves yesterday, absolutely phenomenal off of the back of soft than expected cpi. my question, are you more surprised by data yesterday or the way the market responded? tom: the data. the data is more important than

the way the market responded. can you imagine if we get another cpi down early december? it gives us the same market reaction. there's a couple things critical here. we will go through some of it to give you perspective on it. can we start with where we are focus on carvana? it is story stock week. surveillance is focus on one of the story stocks. carvana, there is a bitcoin blow up on that. should we focus on apple and eggs on or should we become addicted to the story stocks in this moment? jonathan: let's talk about the moves yesterday, i think the stock was up by more than 30% and i saw people on twitter talking about the same thing. if you look at the cpi story, used car prices plunged, carvana and the used car business rallies 13% off of bally of the -- off the back of the print. that tells you yesterday was not about fundamentals, it was about repricing the federal reserve. tom: and what was painfully triple level all cash, i went

back to the asian market funds and if you miss the 10 days up over a long cycle, it is stunning. $10,000 invested, do you want to have $21,000 out there somewhere or $46,000? if you are in cash like tom keene, you do not go up on a day like yesterday. jonathan: it's always been the argument to stay invested because you're likely to miss those days. we need to talk about china. subtle signs they are shifting towards softening their starts on covid zero. if you look at the new rules, the current rules 10 days quarantine, a week in a hotel, three days at home. the new rules, five days in a hotel or government facility, three days at home. context matters, the context is covid cases have surged six-month high so it is the signal that comes from that, the fact you are seeing officials in china soften their stance at a time covid cases have been picking up and there is a strong signal the market is running away this morning. tom: i have a family angle there

and it is still not worth traveling there. that was my summary of it. but it is marginal towards it and maybe after the congress and with president xi meeting president biden supposedly in bali, maybe it is a new migration to china back toward science on this virus. jonathan: we have data on monday. let's talk about what we saw with plane ticket bookings. a bloomberg, we went through the numbers. bookings for flights into china doubled in the hour after the announcement. doubled. that little marginal shift an. tom: a lot of people want to go to course economy to china's $300 and business classes $1200. jonathan: have you done the maths? tom: i looked last night. business class is paris and dublin to shanghai because there so few sees. jonathan: going to pick up on the story later. equity futures positive .3%. the perjury -- the treasury

market is close to veterans day, meaning rameau is away. it's official. we look at the bond market, yields higher by six basis points, just not the 2% on a german tenure and the fx market. let sit on foreign firmament, euro-dollar to 10264, up one half 1% and go through the dollar moves. the dollar index yesterday, worst day since 2015, cable, that was the biggest move on cable, the pound against the u.s. dollar back to 1993 on dollar-yen remove that big, for that much dollar strength you have to go back to 1998. there were monster moves in foreign-exchange. tom: and it becomes cumulative. thank you vice chair for that. on yen, breaching 140, a lower number is a stronger japanese yen. getting back to stasis for this fool it -- before this bullish why cc policy is a 20 big figure move any on 139 down to 110. these are huge potential moves

if you finally get weak dollar. jonathan: chris moran you joins us, the co-chief chief investment officer at valley find. -- valley funds. what did you make of that? chris: we try not to get too caught up in the emotion but we will enjoy, especially at the end of look for they challenging earnings season. it was pretty sweet. if you look at the reaction yesterday, it is about rates. if you price stocks using a discounted cash flow, and you take the dominator down by 30 basis points, you get almost exactly the move that happened yesterday in the s&p. the real world does not work that way, i think it was more about short covering and positioning but it is nice to see follow-through this morning. tom: into next year, can you believe in growth at a reasonable price? i understand value, the value trade on cadbury schweppes is one example.

cadbury candy rather years ago. can you find value in the growth of tax since it has come down so much? chris: yeah, we do on some of the names. we have been looking at them more recently obviously. it is good from our perspective to see cost discipline on the part of some of the big tech names. they really i think had a lot of earnings power and some of it overspent and that will normalize. it is probably too early to get involved with cyclical names but they are on the radar. tom: gina martin adams early focus on the income statement kind of operating margin. are you looking at free cash flow or use of cash? what matters into the new year? christopher: all those things. interest expense and interest income really matter. tom: that has really shifted. dive into that. that is too important, dive into interest expense and why that matters. christopher: you can get away with being unhinged on your

balance sheet for a long time with interest rates low. it did not matter if you carry cash. now it matters. if you are sitting in cash, there a real cost opportunity there and if you are not hedged, you are paying more on interest expense and tax rates not going to go up given the split congress but all these things matter. tom: let's go to where mario has been for years, all the work in entertainment, malone looking at warner bros. discovery. that is halved in value in -- value down 60% to 70%. the streaming wars have become a value and with interest expense, a challenge. can you buy disney? can you buy w bd? christopher: we do own a number of those names and again it will be a tough slog over the next year. we like some of the big tech companies and those are going through significant transitions, cost cuts. we are probably a year or so

away from seeing the streaming efforts turn profitable and show results and the downturn of the advertising market which has been significant and accelerating has not helped but that will turn one day and those will be stars, probably not told 2024 but some point. jonathan: you mentioned the cards, the journal out yesterday reporting amazon lost cost-cutting review. these numbers jumped off of the page to me between the end of 2019 and end of 2021, amazon hired more than 800,000 employees. that number, 800,000 employees from the end of 2019 to the end of 2021. tom: it's like my entourage, there is an expansion, it feeds on itself. jonathan: these are massive numbers. it makes me wonder how much excess we need to caught from some of these tech firms. how big do you think the effort needs to be? christopher: it is baked and it is not just tech or the big banks, we talk in reference to the earnings season we came

through, we are hearing this across the whole economy, industrial companies, consumer companies, some have not publicly announced but are considering it, some small and some big. i think it is important to take yesterday's move context. what the fed has done is having an impact. you see anecdotally consumer demand finally taking a hit companies respond with playoffs and that is the intended effect for raising rates. we are going to see weaker payrolls going forward and out would be more confirmation but the fed can probably back off a little bit. jonathan: this was awesome. what a move yesterday i keep shaking my head just phenomenal. thank you, sir. did you see the fed speak? cap the lifelock. tom: the lifelock showed how silly fit is to me. jonathan: loretta mester, still the view shared by others. they welcome to the inflation

data yesterday, going through the fed, but ultimately validated the spots taken, the drop down from 75 to 50 but no one was doing a victory lap off of the back of that. tom: exactly. to be fair to them and i have an immense respect for president messner, they need more data. if you are going to get a vector going on disinflation, you cannot do it with one point. you cannot even do it mathematically with three points. we are up to inflation studies of february and march where institutions can get a confidence and opinion. jonathan: do you want a appetizer from sector yellen right now speaking at a business forum in delhi saying this, we must help relief emerging debt market burdens. a big feature of this g20 will be debt sustainability and you can see from the bulk of the g20 minus one maybe which is china is a big push on this. tom: my conversation at the imf

started that often i'm sorry that is front center for these institutions. how accommodative are we? the bloomberg financial conditions index -.86 has not been there in ages. jonathan: the conversation continues in the next hour. looking forward to our conversation, that we market rally continues, yesterday on the s&p of 5%, nasdaq up more than 7%. we are up .4% on the s&p. tom: i'm going to look at carvana. jonathan: quite a move. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date with the first word, i am lisa mateo. russia says they will hold its first nuclear talks with the u.s. since the invasion of ukraine. according to the foreign ministry, discussions will be held this month or early december in cairo. they will focus on inspections of atomic weapon sites on the new start treaty. the british economy shrank in the third quarter marking the start of what is expected to be a protracted recession. gross domestic product fell 2/10

-- .2%. consumer spending and is this investment fell during the quarter and bank of england sees a recession persisting into the middle of 2024. it is a significant recalibration of china's covid zero policy that has isolated the country. beijing reduced the amount of time travelers and close contacts must spending quarantine. it is also pulling back on testing. plus a controversial system that penalizes airlines for bringing virus cases into china will be scrapped area the u.s./-- u.s., japan, and other countries offer a finance deal worth $10 billion, designed to shift the country's power grid away from using coal. details will be announced next week turn the group of 20 summit in indonesia. a stark warning from new twitter ceo elon musk. bloomberg learned in his first address to employees since buying the company, musk said bankruptcy was a possibility if it does not generate more cash. investors are offering to buy

twitter debt for as little as $.60 on the dollar. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. ♪

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pres. biden: we learned

inflation came down last month and economists are saying this is a positive sign, resilience of the economic recovery. it will take time to get inflation to normals level -- normal levels. we can see setbacks along the way but we are laser focused on it. that is why it is critical for us to pass important legislation this year to lower those costs for families. jonathan: the president getting more good news from the cpi report, inflation report, and america yesterday. live from new york, good morning, here's the equity price action, what a move in yesterday's session off of the back of the print. a monster move on the s&p. biggest one-day pop going back to april 2020. yields plunging in yesterday's session on the five-year treasury, biggest one-day drop back to 2009. this morning, the treasury market close to veterans day so we look at the bond market in germany, yields up five basis points to north of 2%. tom: note up 3%, 97 dollars rounded up on brent crude, that

gets my attention into the weekend. jonathan: that story, do you want to statement from the former president? tom: please. we do that as a good and very. jonathan: ron desantis is playing games, fake news asked him if he would run a president trump runs any says -- and he says "i'm only focused on the governor's race not looking into the future." the president says and terms of loyalty and class that's not the right answer. it goes on and on. jonathan: on a friday -- tom: on a friday as we calibrate to the weekend and start to look at the year-end into the holiday season, we are going to focus here for our international audience particularly on this relationship with the former president and the present governor of florida. we can do that by looking at the "average middle of the pack white house correspondent." joining us now, always average of the white house, annmarie hordern. [laughter]

describe for our international audience, is it meanness, is a comedy, what is the tone you detect from the former president toward the governor of florida? >> he is clearly unnerved. there has been a number of messages he put out last night and this comes ahead of the fact he also sent out an invitation for his announcement at mar-a-lago next week. even though many in his inner circle are trying to get the president to really hold off, saying please wait until after the georgia runoff which will be december 6, please wait until you decide to make this announcement but he is going ahead. you can see from the statement i guess it is a statement, that john right out some of this, he is clearly bothered by the fact that the republican party is shifting away from him, you have editorials like the wall street journal yesterday putting the blame on a lot of the "red wave" there was supposed to be, laying the blame on the former

president and you see the money drifting toward the governor of florida, ron desantis, and you see the former president unnerved by this, almost i was a melting down. tom: has the advantage of sunshine where people from badly ruined states of north would go no matter who the governor was. [laughter] jonathan: i'm knocking away and in the -- i'm not going to weigh in on that. the murdoch empire rose to the former president and the last one he for hours. it was the journal, the new york post, talked about the front page and the new york post yesterday. amh, the former president talking about a 9:00 p.m. announcement november 15? >> yeah, also a weird time to be making an announcement. usually when you are going to announce your bid for the white house, it is during the day, you want to make sure the press are there, all of the cameras are there, and i guess he thinks 9:00 p.m. is a good time for this, though it is quite late in the evening. but let's wait and see what he

has to say because there are those around him that are really trying to push this further down the timeline but it does look like the president, he has teased it so much that he will come out and say something. tom: you mentioned money, you are good at following the money. we have a whole team at our bloomberg office that does that. does president trump need the money right now to begin a campaign? >> if he is going to be running for the white house, he is going to need more of the big backers but you see them moving towards the ken griffin likes, moving toward the florida governor, ron desantis. that is who they want to invest in, individuals like him, individuals like mike pence, individuals like mike pompeo. the field is very open right now for the republican party and because the former president is getting involved does not mean these individuals will be backing down. where the former president trump has a lot of leeway in terms of gaining momentum and fundraising is grassroots.

it is grassroots of his party, people who will follow him and continue to follow him to his rallies, it's a truck, and they donate but small, nominal amounts. not the big chunks of change you need to run a u.s. presidential election, which we spoke about all you guys were here in washington, d.c., that they last two years long jonathan: it just started now. briefly go through this course, the president of the united states, current president, joe biden, feeling good about himself. this is a narrow race, set of narrow races. can you run us through where we are? >> in terms of right now at the map, we are waiting. it is narrow, it looks like the republicans, even though it is narrow, will get the seats to get a majority in the house and the big question for the house is how much pushback is kevin mccarthy going to get poised to be the speaker because of the fact this was a red reply not a red wave? the senate seat you need to focus on is nevada and arizona

so arizona it does look like the incumbent, mark kelly, will be able to maintain the sea but we should note they are still counting votes. these mail-in ballots, they are still counting. in nevada, you can count votes until november 15 or 17th as long as it is postmarked on election day. nevada is where it is a tossup at the moment. you have the republican ahead in the race but they are still counting in very democratic leaning counties. you could see the democrats, had there. if the democrats are able to get these two seats, it is no matter what happens in georgia, they have a majority. if it goes one red and one blue it will come down to georgia. jonathan: we will catch up as the president looks ahead to the g20. what are you banking? tom: there are so many stories today, it is a very rich friday. a lot of stories we have not even mentioned bit dog which is a serious issue, real hardship. contraction is the word, not recession, but andrew bailey, in

a sad way, has had a very good week looking at the dearth of growth in the united kingdom. jonathan: one caveat with the u.k., extra bank holiday because of the queen's death so softer growth numbers but overwhelmingly even if you take that out, softer growth in the u.k. is a problem but can we look at where cable is? look at the number? 10350 was the low. only a month ago, now 14 handle. massive change. tom: how would you play that? jonathan: i'll give away the christmas presents. tom: really? jonathan: when sterling was about $108. from new york city, equities up, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> equities are up across the s&p 500. good morning. a rally from yesterday. can we call this a rally. it was a meltdown yesterday. it was an explosion higher of the back of the cpi. >> this is important. i did the math. you take a standard and poor 500

which is the correct index, not the dow, and you look at it and you do a regression, and basically, we came up to the resistance level when an index goes up, and it goes to the history of a trend, and critically, on standard and poor 500, we are not through resistance. we are down a good three standard deviations, but i make jokes about it, but john has a point. the answer is, we begin friday not through resistance, even with s px up. >> s&p and nasdaq, this is from michael from bank of america, they are calling it inflation. we've all been waiting for it should be good for a tech stock, but here's the quote. a multi-year d rating is just beginning. that is what they believe. it is just beginning print we should get some kind of relief rally if you want to call it that, a shorts wheeze, you take

your pick, but ultimately, i think we get new leadership, and it comes from small-cap value and market resources. take your pick. >> we are going to the source. stay with us for global wall street. we are thrilled that benjamin layla will join us later on. let's remember somebody has to call the bottom, and he was brilliant in 18, and brilliant again on calling some form of old market bottom up we go. he said, the bottom is in, zero. >> we have a new question. have you seen peak inflation? we have a different question now? people ask this question. when is this going to bottom. when does it come down? how troublesome is that going to be for the next year? >> i think this is a huge fundamental issue that you address, and the answer is i have no value here, and i don't think lael brainard as a failure. we don't know.

i would suggest encore inflation, getting below three will be a shock, and you want to see another market move like yesterday. 2.9%, and that signals disinflation. >> we are light on fed speak. that is a good news. a veterans day treasury market is closed as it should be, i don't know why the equity market is not close. >> don't get me going. in the bond market, we look to the german two-year, five basis points. on a 10 year, just north of 2%. the two-year from a year ago, november 19. -78 basis points. >> you see, in germany, the markets open, and it's a bank holiday. we don't have a bank holiday. we don't have those in america. >> you call it a public holiday. i don't know. >> bank holidays. we were there. it was really something to see.

the united kingdom was shut down as they did for a funeral. >> will finish with the foreign exchange. dxy, specifically, worst day, going all the way back to 2015. if you take a single look at the euro, very close to 103, let's look at cable. this move since 98. the aussie dollar's biggest move since 2011. these were monster moves. >> let's go to the math. we are joined by the head of global exchange. and much more at goldman sachs. we are honored to have you on. what i find so important here is to get the math right. yesterday was a jump condition. was yesterday enough to signal a trend. we are seeing a weak dollar here, and it's a challenge. what did you published after yesterday's historic day? >> i think yesterday was a historic day. there is no question about the

very large moves in markets, not just in effects and equities as you were describing. >> it shows the fundamental thing that you had a very long move on the dollar, and as you've gone higher, what it takes is one important piece of news that was important, and you can have a big move on the back of that, given the way the market is set up, intellectually and in terms of positions. >> where is the position right now. it is tough on foreign exchange, but in a short squeeze, do you get a massive weak dollar off of positioning right now? >> there is some of that you saw yesterday. i would say that with the market essentially doing is moving a lot more probably to a soft landing that is our scenario

from our economist that comes with higher equities. it comes with a weaker dollar. lower rates as well. i think you need to ask yourself, whether -- what side of that you are going to get challenged from. i suspect, even with the inflation data you saw yesterday, the core cpi's three month on month, on a three-month average, and it is .5, but that is pretty high on the overall trajectory. >> we look at the dollar, and off of the comments, for the g20, on the fragility of debt, does the weak dollar assuage the challenges of week em debt? does it solve the problem? >> i think it makes it easier, but the key problem for many markets, and for this, i mean the high-yield software is one of market access. at the rate that are prevailing

here, not just at the front 10, but all on the curve, these are pretty expensive levels for sovereigns to borrow, and they are running out of reserves that are limited in the first place, so until you see a resumption in market access which we need more for price action in days like yesterday, not just one or two days, but before the market access reopens, that is the binding constraint for many of these emerging-market sovereigns. the high-yield ones. that is what it will take to make it easier. >> some of these banks, the original front loaders, thinking of brazil. they really got out early. the fed loses -- uses that. they are playing catch-up. what has that made for the likes of brazil that of gone earlier with hiked rates. >> i think there are two lessons for the rest of the world. one is, going early like you said, going hard, going for inflation, whether it was a

headline, i think it really did help was ill, mexico, some of the currencies that held their own versus the dollar for most of the past year. also, another lesson coincidently came in last couple of days. even a country which has been furthest ahead like brazil, as deep into its disinflation process, you can still have an upside surprise of inflation after a string of downside surprises, so i would just be careful with over extrapolating too much from one cpi. that is the lesson throughout the cycle. that is a lesson from brazil. >> that can change on december 13. that is the runway into the end of the year. we have a payroll on the 13th. cpi on the 14th. a fed decision on monday. very good friend and washington bureau chief peggy collins will catch up with the vice chair of the fed, lael brainard. what do you want to hear from the core of the federal reserve for next week? >> given what the market has

done, and given the financial conditions that have been been delivered over the last few days, even since the last fed meeting, i guess, i would be curious to hear how they think about that. you have one reading that is much more helpful, you have some data for the labor market, and adjusting and encouraging, but i would expect that they would still be looking at some of what is going on in markets with a little bit of trepidation. >> thank you for joining us. can we call the historic yesterday? i think we can. >> absolutely. >> that's fed speak. this is from lori logan at the dallas fed. a slower pace should not be taken to represent easier policy. a move from 75 to 50 in the december meeting. the cpi yesterday, it welcome relief, but there is still a long way to go. you saw that in spent -- fed

speaker after fed speaker. >> they are public officials. they are supposed to be conservative and cautious, they have to wait for the data. we observed the market didn't wait for the data. >> is become problematic. >> today want financial conditions to tighten? >> we are managed by the financial conditions index. it is 11 ratios. it went through one standard deviation and a more accommodative yesterday. i'm trying to have fun. i was thrilled to see calvin phillips made the world cup. can you explain to dummy americans like me -- this is exciting because people get chosen and a guy in a tux and get picked for the polish team. they are crushed. >> is really sad because some players are faced with injuries at the wrong time of the season, and typically, we have a world cup in the summer, we are having in the winter, and a lot of these players have been playing really condensed schedules, so

lots of games all at once. they are picking up injuries. the one that stood out was harry maguire. i can't get a game for manchester united that often. >> is not on the starting team. the likes of my beloved ac milan did make the squad. >> he does. but obviously, he gets the final call. >> this is, when we visit, we go through that. i believe we are. i think surveillance, we should do a world cup thing. >> i'm waiting for the world cup racket to come up on the terminal. >> how do you pick a goalie? they must have 20 phenomenal goalies. >> sure, but over the years, as the premier league has gotten better, particularly over the last 10 or 20 years, it's meant a lot of foreign players come to the leak, the choice is top

division may be not 20 goalkeeper's but i handful. it's been a problem. if you call it a problem. i would suggest that it's been hard to lift everybody. >> a snoozer? >> i love watching them. >> everyone thinks that i am a tottenham fan because of that. because of you. everyone thinks that. >> we would love that. we could go together. two sundays a way. equity futures are up. coming up, tina fordham of fordham global foresight from new york. this is bloomberg. >> keeping up-to-date from news from around the world. the biden administration is sending ukraine more weapons and military vehicles valued at up to $400 million. the package includes antiaircraft systems and weapons are being taken from resisting u.s. stockpiles. a federal judge has struck down

president biden's plan to forgive student loans. the judge called in one of the largest exercises of legislative power without congressional authority in the history of the united states. the justice department says it will appeal. the plan is already on hold for an emergency stay from another federal court. the energy in a says that opec will remain cost us on oil production. that comes after the group made the biden administration angry by lowering output. we spoke to bloomberg at the climate change summit in egypt. >> we are being responsible. that is with the market requiring an dastardly requiring, which is market sustainability. >> opec meets to cut production again. global news, 20 for hours a day, and on bloomberg quick, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120

countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg.

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the holiday season is just around the corner, but economic uncertainty, coupled with rising costs has consumers seeking alternative payment options now more than ever. for more on this trend, we're joined by sara elinson, ey's fintech and payments strategy leader. sarah, what are the big changes you see in the consumer payments landscape? yeah, this is a really dynamic time in the market right now. we're seeing consumers with record low in terms of household savings. we haven't seen this since 2009. we're seeing consumer confidence, though, ticking up, which means people want to spend, but they're going to be looking for alternative payments and methods to do that. we're going to be seeing buy now, pay later

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>> in the upcoming month, i expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach efficiently restrictive stances, but i want to be clear, this rate hike would still be significant. >> a message from the fed speakers, echoing across training wars. the fed president, one after the other, all saying the same thing. we work through that speech, i came out. this line you will like. inflation is shooting up like a

rocket, and then shooting down like a feather. patrick harker of the fed. >> each of these people is different, and pluses and minuses, and to compare vice-chairman brainerd with a massive monetary shops, with someone like harker, who is also has chops, but is attuned to the business cycle, and that fits with philadelphia so well with all of the industry of new jersey and pennsylvania and the rest of the district, but what i find fascinating, and the word we use is still -- stochastic, which is a fancy talk for point. it goes up and it comes down. that is where we are. >> you know who used to write the best beaches? richard fisher. his speeches were great. it wasn't a phd economy. it was very direct. it was just direct and easy to understand. it was different in different than blinded from another time,

but i think he's always been underestimated. i take great issue with people who say comes from dallas. he's actually much more than that. that's the same with the founder and geopolitical strategist for global foresight with serious abilities, including the university of cambridge foreign policy effort. why is she on? it's simple. she wrote a blistering op-ed about the future of america. you chair say use parenthetically, from a removed distance, the -- word civil war, but you say this could be a take no prisoners congress. what do you mean that a republican congress will be take no prisoners? >> that's me trying to be diplomatic. in this blistering op-ed piece, for the fpl, what i wanted to do was poke a little bit at the

u.s. investors complacency about a divided congress being kind of reflexively a good thing. we at elon musk coming out and saying that, and people resorted to what i would consider some sloppy shortcuts in our thinking when the republic as we know it really is facing some serious pressures. now, my peace came out on the day of the midterms, and since then, the less qualified contingent, candidate quality, in fact, in the parlance, it didn't perform very well. i think, a lot of the -- those with fires in their bellies have been somewhat chastened, but we still have a number of underlying indicators in the u.s., support for political violence, the polarization we've all just gotten used to, that is alarming, but i think there was some really reason for optimism.

>> the arrogance, the political arrogance as if it was a two-party system. we have learned that we are a four party system of extremists and to moderate parties. you agree with this? that it is a four party america? >> our structure is built for a two-party system. within each of those systems -- parties, we have contingents which make coming to any kind of agreement on anything extremely difficult. the so-called mega republicans didn't do as well as hoped, but they are still usually influential, and what i'm thinking about the most right now because it is that time of year where we have a year ahead outlook is who is going to run america, and from where i sit in london, and in europe, what does that mean for the future of the international system? trump is less likely to return to the white house. i will tell you that people here

really breathed a sigh of relief, but the race is wide open, and that is a new variable, i suppose. one we haven't gotten our heads around. >> let's turn to the g20 and talk about the story. the president has renewed confidence after this week. how do you think that will play out next week? >> biden is entitled to have some swagger in his step. that is been an unfashionable thing to say, but i am all about providing an analytical framework. the president's party has been hammered in the midterm, and democrats performed better than anyone thought. personally, i am not excited about the fact that we have such an elderly leadership. i think this is a chair talk or see, but when biden goes to the g20, putin is going to be there by zoom. i think that is remarkable.

a remarkable change from a few months ago, and we are talking about genuine concern whether basing -- beijing has a friendship without limits, and it will be a major change to the system, and china is not using any of its global political capital to help russia. they find themselves marginalized, and when we look at these dynamics, india also has not hesitated to be critical at the u.n., so which aligned with russia, or was perceived at opec, that seems to be an adjustment. we are looking at a shift in the planetary weights and global solar system, and a much more marginalized role for russia which has been a spoiler really since the collapse of the soviet

union, or since pruden came to power. >> we understand now, it's been can -- confirmed, on monday, head of the g20, we often talk about deliverables. are there any, going into this? >> i don't think we should expect that. this is a time i talked about the tensions in relationship, and biden goes not as somebody who is defeated in midterms, but somebody who i think intends to run again, and he has clout. the u.s. and china on climate, it is an area of cooperation, so they want to find a bottom to in this relationship. find a floor, and move on from there. it is not happy about cramping the style on tech, but the u.s.

has stood his ground. it commends more respect on the world stage, particularly after the iesco in afghanistan. that was a huge blow. >> thank you. looking ahead, next week. >> emory horton will be there along with southeast asia. i would suggest we have a look at this as a continuum of cop 20. they go to cambodia as well. there is a luxury for the president. it is exhausting. we have to come back and talk about this. >> what are the deliverables. we did that. world cut, or ahead of it. more football.

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>> there is some evidence that we are moving from peak inflation lower. where do we end up? that is the big question. overall, we are in an elevated inflation environment. even if we will pivot, we will not talk about that. there is no fed member that wants to go down in history as losing the fight of inflation. >> we have not discounted the weakness in the economy that is

coming. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. >> the week should have ended yesterday after that move. one day move for the month. maybe even for a year. what a rally. from new york, good morning. this is bloomberg surveillance. tk, yesterday's moves are monster moves. >> looking at the fusions, it is concave. looking at acceleration, trend off of yesterday. we are a little let -- less accelerated, but we are up. futures are up, and they continue. it is reassessing on friday. >> i like to ask this question. if i told you ahead of time what the data would be, precisely where inflation would come in, would you have guessed the market would have move this much? asked i would've said two things. i would have said yes, it would move, and it would have been more assertive than that, and

say it would move big. not like we saw, but because of all of the gloom, and it is the amount of people with cash. >> a divided congress is waiting. yesterday, this morning, and reopening china. rumor after rumor. >> my proxy on that is luxury purveyor, and they have a good week. tengion surely, and i would extended to the g20 for the rim. if china opens up, the pacific rim opens up. >> is a big focus. amory will be there, traveling, and the president goes to egypt. she will go to egypt, and i

think that is smart, it is not just another g20 meeting. i looking forward to coverage. were also looking at a sanctimonious -- ron sanctimonious? and former president donald trump? >> elon musk better come over here. it's getting messy, fast. the equity market looks like this. biggest rally. april of 2020, and on the nasdaq, up by more than 7%. 4/10 of 1%. in a bond market, treasuries are closed, so we look at that at nine basis points on a 10 year. >> you did a data check. we have to look at that with 17,000, down $483 from the equity link search. i don't want to make jokes about this, but because i think this is a huge financial and even hardship involved, without a

doubt. where are we on monday. >> i don't know. i've been asking this question because it's an important one. a lot of people don't dabble in this class. >> you are looking at me. securities from yesterday. can you speak to them and tell us why this matters? do we have the potential for a contagion? he thinks this can hit the economy as well. i don't have an informed opinion on this. it can hit the economy and a bigger way than you can a push -- appreciate weary. i did and analysis on this. sort of inept, and i think it is not the ugliest shirt i've seen, but it is further south. it is a technical analysis. the drift factor of bitcoin is different than amazon. i don't think you can do legitimate linear technical analysis on bitcoin because it

doesn't drift like a normal asset. great lineup. around the opening bout, don't miss that. we are joined vice chair hunt. sarah, tom talked to amazon. can i go through this? amazon is up. microsoft is up. outfit is up. what did you make of those moves in yesterday's session? a lot of this has to do with how down everything's been, and how much people are positioned for a bad cpi print and thinking that will drive rates higher. therefore, these tech names take the biggest meeting. they have really been beating up a lot. it is on the back of, oh my goss, we finally will see what will happen to slow the fed. this will happen with the print came, and it is so negative. it is absolutely a terrible september, and we've been looking for this, because housing prices have been so

elevated, and i was certainly thinking that might not be such a positive. we are talking about cpi, but as a relative game. we are thinking that prices had not come up, but it is even more sheltered. on the inflation side, it was up, but other things counter man did it, and it is just a relief that if we see a path of them, at least slowing or pausing, it is something you can look at. i don't expect you to have an answer to this, but i am more interested in the process you go to for the durable market, and just a bear market melt up. a bear market rally melt up. what is more durable, and what is something you may want to stay away from. the way i look at it is i think that you have most of the data points out of the way. through the election, it turned out better for the market than people were expecting, in a sense of just a little bit of division but not much and maybe

more division to the center, and if you think about for parties, there are two in the middle, and each one is on its own. i think that helps a little bit, and what i worry about is inflation starts coming down, and part of that is on the back of inflation. higher prices, people raising prices come if it starts a come in, we haven't taken earnings down enough. we have a stock by stock basis, but i'm not sure if it is soft, i don't think consensus is down enough, so i think you have to glide into the end of the year without a lot of data coming up, except for a very weird print in december, because you can go higher, and some things of gotten higher, or employment numbers are so high that people are worried they cannot go slower at some point, but for the end of the year, it's ok. i worry about next year. >> do you see a proportional decline in revenue growth because inflation comes in? >> it will depend on the sector. i don't think inflation will

come off. china could reopen. that is inflationary. we have so much or so little demand, so there will be a lot of forces, and i think it will depend on the sectors, but i think the ability to raise a price is not strong going into next year, and i wonder where margins will go because it is low right now. so many of her viewers and listeners have a time that goes back to 10 years, or whatever the distances. yesterday, i had a feeling of 1975 when the nation was flat on its back. or 82, and i will go on the chart back to the canal and the bottom of world war ii in 1942. a seismic event, and yesterday, did this signal when we look back decades.

>> i'm not sure we started from a position low enough to say that. it's not like the equity market was flat on its back. look at the nasdaq. with a normalized level, i don't know what the answer the question is because i don't know where it should be price. we go back to the risk-free rate, so how do we go back to the ants -- assets,. >> how do you have a rate after yesterday? >> you look at a place where you can now start to see where we might end up, but i don't know how long we can stay there, which is what the fed would like to do because it is expensive for governments to have higher rates, and i think there is some question about whether or not we are going to tame inflation, and i don't know where we end up with that. we have four more question. a lot of people are gripped by fear of missing out.

rotating back. that is the big move. relatively speaking and energy, you have been bullish for most of the year. why do you want to stay with that group of stocks. >> there is some fluctuation in energy, but i want to stay with that because it is a huge tension between alternative energy sources and we don't have the technology, so if you electrify any car, they could not handle that, so i am looking at these assets is not stranded. we are going to be moving, but i think there is an underinvestment in gas and oil, and it is not going away. we don't have a replacement for. i look at that is up to -- opportunistic. with tech, i believe there is a good story. they will pay for growth. companies that have to grow like meda, what are you going to pay for that? in the end, you have to pay for growth, even if it is inside of that. >> there is growth. that is a problem.

we didn't mention meta. >> we didn't, but we did. thank you. up-to-date on the market. >> last time we talked about this we had a tobacco. a twitter tobacco. i'm going to go back to what is delicately mention. there is an interest rate. we have a risk-free rate, and we have a great zombie role next year. we are finally taking over, profit matters, growth matters, and your story matters. you are going to see combinations and transitions. discipline. >> that is part of it. it is not there from the last 10 years. discipline returns. it's the single most important thing. i'm going to guess five years ago, he devoted an entire letter just to hard work, that's it. >> this would be a thing for us. year-end into next year. for others. this tweet just came in.

no discipline whatsoever. you have to do a world cup surveillance. i'm so up for hearing tom keene give commentary for how he does something decisive. please make it happen. we'll make it happen. i can't wait for you to talk about that. have you ever sent smoot -- new to the limbic's? i think it would be like snoop dogg doing the limbic coverage. i think it would be just as hilarious. i don't know. >> teacher on the s&p up 4/10. this is bloomberg. >> get a solo apology camera shot ready. keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world with the first word. russia says it will hold its first nuclear talk since the invasion of ukraine. according to the foreign ministry, discussions will be held late this month. or in early december. they will focus on inspections of atomic weapon sites, and the

treaty. the british economy shrank. it makes this the start of what is expected to be a protracted recession. gross domestic product fell. consumer spending and business investment both fell. the bank of england sees a recession. it's in the middle of 2024. a significant recalibration of the covid zero policy that has isolated the country. beijing has reduced the amount of time for close contacts in quarantine. it is also pulling back on testing. plus a controversial system that penalizes airlines for bringing cases in airline and it will be scrapped. a new twitter ceo -- in his first address to employees since find a company, he said that bankruptcy was a possibility if it doesn't start generating more cash. investors are already offering to buy a twitter debt for as little as $.60 on the dollar. global news, 24 hours a day and on uber quick take, powered by

more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries it i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg. a group who can help us. not those new age shamans again. i'm talking world-class business experts. data geeks, strategists, tax advisors, the works. i do like data geeks. what about technologists? 40,000 strong, baby. who are these people? it's ey, believe it or not. can they help us build remote ghost-to-cloud tech? oh yeah. they've invested over $2 billion dollars in innovation in high tech data and analytics. the best of both worlds. that's our motto! actually, that's end-to-end transformation. we'll be able to hit our projections both fiscal and astral. and we'll have the tools to be more nimble wherever we go: home, tombs, caves, catacombs, you name it.

this company sounds great. what do you think, agnes? looks like it's unanimous.

>> it is an appropriate thing to

think about. we support a gradual approach. we are discovering the rate as we go. >> the san francisco fed. a crazy week. >> she is my favorite. i love them. >> i was at a diner. she is fantastic. just a lovely human being. >> for the coming days, i will not be interrupted, and the bank penalty on the table. there is a price action, briefly. equity futures up. a monster move yesterday. 7% on the nasdaq more than five on the s&p. biggest move we've seen going back to april 2020. the effect market moves absently while. euro-dollar's up. just short of one of three or 102. sterling. i want to sit on this.

11757. that currency is stronger. the panic of the u.s. dollar. look where this is. september 26. 10350. credit to the prime minister. 14 big figures, and i can't remember the brexit chart, but we are at a level just above pound strength, for the brexit level of 116 is my guesstimate, but is this a good score for the prime minister? >> two legs of this. the u.k. lakes we clean up. of the last couple of months, we still have to do that. still some work to do. the second leg of this is the immense dollar weakness we saw yesterday. worst day since 2015. no question. 107 on dxy, but a lift to the markets. we are going to digress to the 14 different stories out there for our bloomberg washington correspondent, and we need to migrate forward three hours. president of the united states

will go to the middle of nowhere in egypt to speak on climate. i'm going to suggest this is off the radar. get us on the radar to get us some help and provide clarity on what president biden would like to accomplish in egypt. >> i don't think this is the middle of nowhere. a lot of people have visited a resort, and basically, the president is going to calibrate the stance and reaffirm their stance on climate. they want to hone in on methane emissions as well. this entire cop 27 has really had a difficult time in terms of balancing the needs of countries around the world. higher inflation, higher costs at the same time you are trying to transition. one thing that is clear is the big takeaway from climate friends writing about this, calling it a show me the money, it is the fact that the developing world is saying that

if you want to transition, you need to come to the table with billions of dollars that will be needed, that was promised to us. that is what this is about. >> there is a war. we have a ways to go. let us stay on methane. the president will talk about natural gas and methane emissions and the production of oil. i guess out in the field. that is great. to the republicans violently disagree with democrats on methane emissions? or are they on the same page? >> a lot of people want to see emissions being toned down wherever they can. >> methane is clear. it is hard to make sure it is not leaking, but there are leaks, the president is moving further to make sure that on these wells and drills, you can contain these omissions. you will not see a ton of pushback from republicans on that issue. what you will see is that this administration continues to go after the oil industry, and at

the same time, they asked for more production. maybe with a house majority, you can see a little bit more talk about permitting bills, talk about what joe manchin, the senator from west virginia wants to see, which is making sure that job stay in place. they are potentially when you can see that, but i don't think they will go after biden for making a climate speech. there are number of people who even the party thought that the united states leaving the agreement under president trump was actually a mistake. >> that's not the appetizer for the g20, that's the main event. biden sitting down. what do you expect? >> nothing. we do not expect a joint statement. there will not be any deliverables. this is what u.s. officials are describing as a way for these individuals to better understand each other, and they want to get a map of the rules of the road. this is something that has been

done since 2021. they call it the floor. setting a floor for the relationship. there is going to be no deliverable. obviously, potential fireworks when it comes to certain issues that will be discussed. putin's invasion of ukraine, what is going on in terms of the u.s. trying to harness technology, and what the chinese really want a handle on. debt sustainability for the developing world, and of course, taiwan. >> the g20. we will sit on that for a moment. how did 20 countries agree on anything? >> we don't even know of all 20 will be showing up. we know president putin will be a no-show. no surprise. he didn't go to rome. when rome was happening, he wasn't invading his neighbors, so he will send someone else. incredibly difficult, given that russia is in part of the g20, given that china is maintaining and not considering putin directly about the invasion.

it is going to be a very difficult communique, and potentially, there will not be one. >> thank you. heading to the g20. we will catch up a little later on bloomberg tv around the open. we've asked the question, as to whether this communique next week, if we have one, we will read like the fed minutes. one country says this. a couple country say this. very difficult. very difficult to read anything right now, and i am hugely biased on this, and my child view is pittsburgh really mattering. the only thing i think about is that this meeting matters close to us because it is on the others either world, and it is american foreign policy international relations. western relations. it is really going to pay attention. >> transatlantic relations. i'm fascinated by this white house and this ministration. i think there's a bit of tension that hasn't been spoken about an

up over the last couple of weeks. >> it will come out here. there is no question. between germany and the u.s., what does the new germany or the next germany look like. there is some real uncertainty. we have said, one years, two years, it is not easy to say this, but they outsource the security to america over decades. there outsourcing their security to china. they are still very close to china. >> i look at these groups and the world cup, and the united states, england, iran, that's exciting. >> the game is on monday when we are on air at about 8 a.m.. >> so are 10 viewers can watch. we go from 10:00 until 2:00.

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>> surveillance correction on the schedule which is important for all of you. i know this. england is on monday, november 21. maybe we get a bigger audience that morning. maybe not in london, but in the united states, it is black friday. england plays usa.

2:00 p.m., senegal. leah for netherlands. isn't that -- you pick some practice. at. >> it's done a few months ago. on board, with the price action, i'm sure. about the end zone. someone message me and said you might think that tottenham was playing in the world cup. i would have to explain to you why they are not. the equity is on the nasdaq. also, monster move. back to april, that is the equity market, and the bond market, if you take a look at treasuries and you cannot because we have to take a look at bonds, but treasuries yesterday, let me finish. treasuries on a five-year are down the most yield. biggest drop since 2009.

treasury closed, so we look at this timeline. i german 10-year. just a historic move, including in the fx market with the dollar index. biggest one-day move. >> it continues today. it continues today. we are negative more than 1%. we have to see where the victim will settle. on veterans day, armistice day, with a two-year yield, i do think we have to manage. can you imagine if i was managing money. bring it up. we are looking at 4.6, and we are navelgazing at 5%, price down, yield up, and we reverse and go down to 4.33. i think i have with flash. >> just after payrolls came out, the two-year came really close to 480. we were rounded up. all the way back down again. >> we are going to dive into this with a huge with a senior

portfolio manager, and what is so important about of this is there is a wholesales component in your career. link portfolio strategies to the conversation of positioning and sales and revenue production all of that, and with institutional clients, after what we witnessed yesterday. >> it is important. the way they move, you can tell that there is a cleansing in the market, we keep seeing it. that was a big thing in this position. i think the fx market is punishing popular positions. a lot of these currencies have been under immense pressure, even more so than the broad effects. kind of because those are popular positions. sterling, i think that is a popular one under position, but that is a big -- there is a dollar turnaround, and that is what we have it waiting for.

are we going to get that ship. is this a squeeze or a turn? that's what were trying to work out. it's where we are with the fed. yesterday, this was important. it is one data print, but across the board, and orton components. health care, goods, inflation. but it is one print. we have had fakes from before, and i think powell has told us that we are downshifting. though we are not. this is not a u-turn and policy. all of the fed speak from yesterday had been like that. a lot of easing conditions. from fed official to fed official, we are asking, whether we can say that we can remove the potential for terminal rates to be priced higher. you think we have done that efficiently? >> the mark get across treasuries takes out the tale of higher rates. we think at a minimum, the fed fund gets to four, and the

market is taken out with the pricing of any of the higher rates. i think a little too much, and i think, powell told us many times during the press conference that his concern is inflation continuing to run hot, and they have the ability to tighten more, and if they don't do enough, that's a concern. >> you have a great blend. all of the navelgazing is in the equity markets, and is this the bottom or the beginning of the bull market. can you say the same about dollar yield, where we finally migrate. can you call yesterday a bottom? >> i don't know if you can call it that. the markets are choppy, and in retrospect, this is what waiting for. a big turn. the dollar on a trade effective basis is a 42 year high. what do you do except for the bracket. we have a duration position because u.s. duration if you

expect terminal rates to get to 475 at 385, is that so compelling. less so for us. a hundred basis point inversion. we can a half ago, a lot more interesting. in the u.s. market, it is standing out. it is a bit more interesting, especially for local peers. what do you do with cash, and what do you expect everyone to do when they brag about cash. will that go at the end of the year. i think the income, and a few people on your program have said it. income is now an interesting place to be. we are coming out of this multiyear zero fed policy. a global policy, now you look at corporate and we are yielding 6% versus a year ago. you think it will be deployed? i think people are getting more comfortable like days yesterday, deploying money into fixed income product. >> there is a hope that this is

a return to the old world. do you share that hope, and is it just a hope. i think as we look into 23, there is a lot of interesting and exciting things against the horizon, and we get some clarity and stability with the fed, and it's not that we need a massive easing cycle, and i don't think we have that in-store, but if we have some stability and fed pause, we kind of know, even if it is a gradual tightening, the market can say masses's levels of interest rates, there is more comfort. at villanova, all of that is a risk and reward. it is kind of an analysis, and here we are in this is historic time, and we are seeing events, it is all zombie company getting rolled up, and how do we play

out in the debt market if we have because of the numerous free rate. how do we have some form of zombie transactions. how does that play out. capital is free, so for tech and for vc and the testis of the world, that is providing a lot more opportunity out there. we are no longer. we are no longer in a world where capital is free. we look at the broad high-yield and, debt market, globally, corporate balance sheets are a lot healthier than they have been. from an ig perspective, we are not worried about the health of corporations. when we look at europe, the banking system, we think it is sound. there is papers coming a size 10% in the market. there are interesting things out there. it is a biased market, and we see it coming into the market to fund our leveraged buyout. there is we'll push back from the market saying that is not good enough. we want this and this.

the reason i say we are looking to 2023 and hoping it is a new world versus is it a new world because when we speak to fixed income, this is what they want. thank funds are maybe 45%, discipline is back, the buyers are not abused by this, and we can get away with anything. i'm trying to understand the difference between the world we hope, and the world begot. which one is it. >> it is a combination of both, and it will play out, coming back to the data. where is the economy going from here we had it is on two hands. inflation has ramped up massively, and it is a step in the right direction. we have a hot labor market, and the fed needs to see some cooling, we haven't seen any signs of that. if we don't, the fed continues to go more gradually than this year, what to next year. i think that gives people pause. that is a more cautious buyer,

or a standard of what and when you are willing to put work. >> they are excited about next year. i've think i for them say that. are you excited about 2023? >> we are. it is fixed income. it is foreign-exchange. if you get clarity, that is the number one. there is an opportunity for short dollars, but emerging-market is also very interesting. you have yields at 400 basis points above yields in the u.s., and domestic market, and you have inflation running in many cases lower than the market. we've never had that. >> this conversation with goldman sachs, some of these countries are the original front loaders and i think that raise has been lost over the years with federal reserve. i think they've hijacked the phrase. it was a marketing ploy.

they were catching up. the original front loaders were in em, and they came out early. the likes of brazil. hiking. they were on another planet. thank you. >> thank you so much. no more world cup questions. i'm sure you're happy about that. more on the world cup. are you excited? why do they have a separate team. >> is a separate country. mind blown. they have a different language. mind blown. >> is also the united kingdom. as a separate country. does southern italy have their own? they do not. they are part of italy. >> the team of italy? >> that is a low blow. that is a low blow and you know it. why do they have a separate team? they have a team come for they do not get it. >> is that helpful? is exciting. >> and might be his last tournament. before he becomes a golfer. >> i don't understand why they have their own. they are a separate nation.

did mr. sunak get that memo? >> he's aware. i'm sure most people are. you know the countries? england, scotland? >> i know columbia, senegal, egypt, that's just the four nations. the world cup coverage. we are. that's my coverage. >> that is rude. >> equity futures. bad form. this is bloomberg. >> keeping you up-to-date with news from around the world, first word with lisa mateo. the biden administration is sending ukraine more weapons and military vehicles. they are valued at 400 million dollars. the package includes an antiaircraft system and weapons are being taken from existing stockpiles. a federal judge has struck down president biden's plan to forgive student loans. the judge called it one of the

largest exercises of legislative power without congressional authority in the history of the united states. the department says it will appeal. the plan is already on hold after an emergency stay from another federal court. energy minister of saudi arabia says that they will remain cautious on oil production. they are making the biden administration angry. they spoke to bloomberg at the climate change summit in egypt. >> it is a very big responsibility. with the market requirements, destiny requires it, which is market sustainability of the markets. >> opec meets on december 4 to decide whether to cut production again. global news, 24 hours a day, on bloomberg quick take, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and 120 countries. i am lisa mateo. this is bloomberg.

>> is the markets have risen since the end of september, people are pessimistic, but not as much as they were at the end of september, so i think the pessimism is bad but not as bad as people expect. may be setting the floor under equities and risk assets. basically a summary yesterday. got a message moments ago on twitter. scottish and northern irish fans are throwing things that tv to cross the united kingdom. right now, it's a price action on the s&p. good morning. good afternoon to you all as well.

on the equity market, we look like this. just a bullish recipe for the week right now. gridlock and d.c., maybe. cpi, that's what we've got, and china, a signal that they are willing to soften their stance on covid zero. that is the take. >> it is so important. we are very advantaged, and our chief agent correspondent can stay up to brief us, and we have eight ways to go here, but i've got to go to the immediate news who are the science advisors advising basing on a covid shift. >> they've got the top scientific commission just like any other climate, and what they are feeling through now is there needs to be more targeted scientific approach to combating covid, that is why with a 20 point plan today, under one hand, it's about easing the international cut off of china, so they've got to have a shorter quarantine, and it is an easier

testing regime, and a flight ban will be done away with. those were underground, and there is a change in testing and quarantine as well. but the point is, it is obviously a broadbrush approach. it is for the rest of the world. and china has been under language under messaging, and there would be a big change. this does represent a pivot. >> for the reach beyond, is there any ability to have mrm an -- mrna vaccines for science exported to china to help the chinese people. >> this is a discussion that was held whether with german delegations, and is a question over the licensing and the use of the biotech vaccine, and it already had a license to produce the mrna vaccine. there is an option for china when it comes to the western

vaccine, but it must be said that the other vaccines they have, they have not been as effective. they clearly have been proven to be safe, and somewhat effective, so clearly, china is comfortable to rest on those other crotches. but the real problem they have with vaccines is that the elderly population remains under vaccinate. this is a big achilles' heel for them because it is the same story in hong kong. we have an elderly population, and that proportion, that section of the population took a hit we had a big outbreak. by the way, a lot of people are saying that it is impetuous, because a lot of the measures that are being relaxed are the kind of measures that we were relaxing over the past few months like flight bands, changes to quarantine, testing, etc.. there is a view that what is happening could be a bit of a trial for how china will pivot out of the covid zero. >> a simple question. how does this authoritarian state struggle to get the vaccination?

how does that happen? >> i haven't heard a good answer. a lot of people are questioning why china's vaccination rate isn't at its peak level, and there are cultural and conservative norms when it comes to vaccination, but just as there has been in other parts of asia, it's not just mainland china, but nonetheless, it's a gap. also, in china, there is still a healthy structure that remains a long way off for the rest of the world, and it is a university report, it warned of millions of deaths that want to be spread unchecked, so there are a good public health reasons why china has been trying to control the virus. it needs to be said, but they've reached a point where the virus outbreak is at its highest in six months, just in hong kong, with one go. a big outbreak with a heavy restriction. they know that it is hampering the economy. they need to navigate their way out of it, and this seems to be a suggestion to figure a way out

of it, even if they have a long way to go. >> markets are trading on the signal of the context. to your point, they have to start at a time when the cases are nationwide. a hearing of all that, but there might be a shift to say, it is not march. the current role as 10 days. then there are changes coming down to eight. what do you say to those people. is that the start of something bigger, or the scope to move even further from your. >> i think it is a fair point. the point i'm trying to make is that relative to where we were with the language and stay press, coming out of congress, no laying flat, no change in covid zero, and they have made these changes, even if they are incremental, and it does underscore how far they have to go to get back to the level of normalcy china was at before the crisis, so there's something for everyone. a pivot that is bullish in the economy, or a reminder of how far they have to go. >> one final question.

in economics, can we frame out a more buoyant gdp. can we go from the gloom of sub 3%, or to something more china like? >> some signs of the real estate market are forthcoming into the sector, if this covid zero strategy continues on this trajectory, it is not hard to imagine -- imagine another upbeat conversation with congress. >> wonderful to catch up with you. thank you for staying late into the evening first. over in hong kong, the chief correspondent here at bloomberg. i just pulled up the screen for race -- for a snapshot of estimates for gdp in china. this is a number for 2022. 3.3%, and a threat at 4.8%. the real test of these changes, let's see what the economists do when they model outgrowth writ doesn't go from three towards for #>> it affects the united states and the western world,

and if you get to the 4.8 statistic, you have so many things that happen. do you get an explosion, and frankly, we see it swarmed. >> from your perspective, what is more important? china reopening or the demand-side shift you get from china reopening. >> i don't say this on air, but no one is listening on a friday. guess what, we are focused on supply-side. >> i am focused on -- it is a construct. i'm not focused on the supply side. i think the demand-side dynamics are too iffy. i've got to look at the concrete fact of supply-side healing. schwab has been way out on this. >> came move on china today? >> you'll see that. it is really a dragging market with a fixed of c and why. i'm gonna talk about this

because i'm eager. the last time around, in the pundits, they are saying that since 1962, i think that is 60 years ago. it was the last time there was a repeat. >> it is feasible? back to back wins. >> you think they could do it? >> my favorite is brazil. my favorite is argentina. i think they finally got a full and complete squad. >> might perhaps not right? >> he's on brazil. >> you've been studying. >> you are crushing. i'm going wait, why is wales park? >> don't go there. were going to get some complaints if you go there. don't upset the wealth nationalist. >> equity futures. this is bloomberg.

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>> i think we are going to get hawkish rhetoric out of the said.

>> the fed needs to see more before they say we can decelerate and pause. >> we should get lower volatility but we need to see the fed go down before that happens. >> there is a terminal rate problem meaning we do not know when the fed. . >> one has to be careful that it is a long way back to 2%. >> this is bloomberg surveillance with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: rounding out a week that has driven us all crazy. from down to up and up again and up up and away. from new york city, good morning. for our audience live, alongside tom keene i am jonathan ferro. the bond market is closed for veterans day but today the equity market is open for a big session. tom: the follow-through i would not call the angle be saw

yesterday but it is stunning to see and it will be interesting how the 23.57. there angst was 32 and the equity markets at 23.57. i'm going to do this for global wall street in the next half hour, it is critical to get you set for the weekend. what is important is taking the equity blather and bringing it over to fixed income and foreign exchange. jonathan: but if you came into this week and you wanted three things and you may be 2.5 in them. gridlock ndc, almost there. downside surprise got it yesterday. he wanted a sign that china was willing to soften their chance on reopening, you got that this morning. that is why we are seeing the massive move. tom: we have underplayed this in brent crude at $96 per barrel. the answer is, as you say there

were 3, 4 international events that are linked into the optimism. i thought sarah hunt was articulates on that. jonathan: it is the follow-through that gets my attention. let us get the dollar index, the worst day owing back to late 2015. december 2015. this morning down 1.2% on the dollar index. real follow-through from yesterday. tom: more than i expected and there are individual stories. i think bannockburn is really good on this, do not look at blended indices, you have to go granular and look at the pairs. japan leading but that is an idiosyncratic story. jonathan: the biggest move back to 98, cable. the biggest move back to 2011, did you expect to move that large. if i at a crystal ball and told you exactly where cpi would print across the board yesterday with precision, would you have

guaranteed me the kind of move that we had gotten yesterday, no way. tom: not the magnitude. i would have said the vector and direction and condition, but the magnitude of the move. what was amazon, up 11 or 12%? there is nothing gloomy or then amazon. he is going to do a complete organization and the bottom line is all of the stuff that was gloomy had came out strong. jonathan: microsoft up 8% yesterday. apple up 8.9% yesterday. wilde moves. tom: i will start with the data open on this armistice day as we look towards world war i, no -- 11:00 a.m. of november 11. the u.s. market opened 4.33% and at close yesterday you guys were whispering less than 18 hours ago of 5% yield. jonathan: backed away, have we removed the tail risk off of the

back of the cpi print. can we flip the story back to where it was when we get the next cpi print. if you listen to the fed officials they are cautious about any kind of victory lap or anything seen as a victory lap after the inflation data. tom: there is the data and thank you for the world cup comments as well. we are having fun diving and as we look for team coverage. when does it start, monday? jonathan: two sundays away. tom: this is a joy and we did not set ourselves up with a massive market move. we have the global head of foreign-exchange strategy at the royal bank of canada. she attends from europe where she is definitive on the linkage of ecb dynamics with the foreign-exchange market. let us start there because i have had a real dearth of euro analysis. what is your call on the euro given the last 24 hours? elsa: it is an interesting moment and slightly painful of

painful for me, and i went long on euro-dollar and now it is neutral and i am watching this rally. i think yesterday's cpi gave people a green light to do something they wanted to do already. for me what was straightening -- striking was listening to our heads ahead of the number talking about what they would do. the difference in opinion between europe and the u.s. is incredible. jonathan: what shaped it? elsa: people in europe believe they are near the end and they have been waiting to play that and the cpi is hanging over them. even if we hadn't in line number people what sell ust. jonathan: is that because the news has been better in europe? elsa: i think people are itching to sit -- to see the end of the fed hiking cycle and maybe there is just doom and gloom and pessimism about the u.s. economy than in new york city, it is a difference in opinion between europe and the u.s. which as -- which is the biggest i've ever

seen. tom: you said that you were stopped out, you believe in a stronger euro and it comes back and you are first out of your trade, essentially, and you are on the sidelines. how much of the market is on the sidelines for this weak dollar moments? elsa: there will be a lot of people in that position and into year end people have had a strong performance on the back of being long dollars and are scrambling thinking do i take it off, i had a lot of conviction and a lot of people i spoke to were convinced that we go higher in 2023 and there is a lot of fomo weather in the equity markets trying to get more. tom: how does fomo express itself? are launches longer -- our lunches longer in london? elsa: it is the fact that fx is so liquid and it might be an easier way for a lot of people to reposition, and's we have seen that. tom: you did that a couple of

years ago. you put on that sterling trade. jonathan: how would you reset this morning? elsa: the trade that i really like is across, long euro-sterling, buying the euro and selling the pound. i am just very gloomy about our prospects. and you kind of have to set the dollar. we have another cpi print before the december fmoc and we had a little bit of head fake about the cpi. i have to be honest it was a great move if you caught it and had ibm two weeks ago and today it is higher -- it is harder to buy euro-dollar. jonathan: is that a positioning story. you said it was not just pessimism, what is it? elsa: all of the investors i speak to, no one is positive. people might be bullish, nobody is on the euro, and that is not because i think that europe is looking great, a lot of people

wonder about 2023. what i think is interesting is european investors repatriating money home. if we start to see that inside you could get a lot of euro buying from that domestic shift. tom: where is the end and opportunity for numbers and profit? elsa: you touched on crude earlier and we are seeing interesting moves. tom: wait, stop. what she is saying there folks is that she has halima croft to help her out. link them together on the halima croft oil trade, what are you doing informant -- in foreign-exchange? elsa: we like the mexican peso, we think that has further to run. brazil is tricky given the finance minister. tom: and that -- and in the world cup. jonathan: let us do the world cup right now. the heartbeat of foreign-exchange worldwide, what is going to happen to volumes in london and a couple of weeks, off a cliff? elsa: heading into christmas it

always gets quieter. jonathan: imagine how much worse it will get. elsa: we will have to wait and see. tom: dollar-mexico, 20, i remember when it was a barometer for american politics. 19.43, he figures can you make your strong mexico? elsa: what is interesting is a carry, which is why a lot of people have bought it. it is not just a spot move but you get a positive real yield, particularly if we are pricing in lower yields than the u.s.. tom: we would be thrilled to have you window hot for the world cup coverage. tom: rbc is all over it. oh here is halima calling right now. jonathan: lauren dialed in. thank you. team rbc. just awesome. tom: this is the heritage. who? ok. it is true, every house is

different and the canadians, they get underplayed a little bit in the american media, that is baloney. they are strong and the rbc is particularly strong in london. jonathan: so another guy who listens to the show. dave if you would like to sponsor a trip to the world cup, you know where we are. we thank you and appreciate it. london, trading volumes. tom: we know that. jonathan: going into christmas off of a cliff with the world cup. tom: for your we can, daniel ives, thank you for joining us. twitter, a money pit. i saw $4 million a day is mr. musk's working pit. jonathan: i listens to that talk , a couple of days ago, he had every brand under the sun listening to it. interesting to follow, following day what happens? tom: do i lose my blue thing that weekend? jonathan: when do you have to

start paying for it? official is back under official brands now. it has been a mess the last couple of days. ben has been looking for the squeeze for a while and joins us next. i know you are looking forward to that. coming up equity futures higher after a monster move. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> keeping you up-to-date, with the first world lord i am lisa mateo. ron is ready to rescue ftx.com. he spoke today on bloomberg tv. >> right now i think the most important thing is that we need to do -- and also evaluate the situation to have a full picture of what is going on, like how serious is the liquidity crunch.

so basically, once we get a full picture, i think we will start to make moves. lisa: ftx has a shortfall as much as $8 billion. russia says it will hold its first nuclear talks with the u.s.. according to the foreign ministry discussions will be held late this month or early december in cairo focusing on inspections under the new start treaty. the british economy shrank marking the start of what is to be a trip -- a protracted recession. gross domestic product fell .2%. consumer spending and visit -- and business investment fell. the bank of england sees recession persisting into the middle of 2024. a new problem for twitter there is a growing number of users impersonating major brands. such as nintendo, eli lilly and tesla. twitter has reinstated official badges for those high-profile accounts. they had been rolled out earlier this week before being

withdrawn. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am lissa matteo, this is bloomberg. ♪

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>> there is some evidence that we are moving from peak

inflation lower. where do we end up is the big question. the terminal rate has been at 4.9%. that seems to be a reasonable view. jonathan: absolutely brilliant coming into the cpi print and out the other side yesterday. live from new york city, your equity market what a brilliant run, up more than 5% on the session on the s&p, the biggest move since 2020. in -- on a week it is up 5% headed for the biggest gain since june 24 of this year. bond market treasuries are closed for veterans day, the yield to higher by 10 basis points and a bit of a bounce back from the major move lower from global bond yields. and a foreign-exchange euro-dollar back to 103, we reclaim 103 and we talked about a follow-through with the dollar weakness that dominated a session of follow-through. a euro-dollar move of 1%. tom: and the move i said to the

team, all that metals -- matters is ben, why is that? let us go back to one of the greatest calls in equity market strategy. benjamin labeler says shut up and bottoms and. he nailed it with the global market strategist and has published the bottom is in. is this like christmas eve of 2018? ben: i do say bottoms and, earnings are hanging in and the sentiment has pulled valuation low but wildcards like china are improving and the inflation fever is starting to break and it does give it visibility on top of the cycle it is not enough to get us off that it is absolutely enough to tell us that the bottom is in. that is the similarly with 2018 and the difference is that this will be more like absolutely the

necessary first step. and we learned a lot of things yesterday. one of them is you have to be in it to win it. i do think that investors need to be in this one. tom: what is the character or human behavior of those loaded in cash. there is a lot of cash out there, i am perspective portfolios of five to 4% earning 7% in etc.. how will cash respond? >> nothing has worked apart from cash but this is going into the end of the year. historically the best thing is to pour cold water on that are just a historically bad year with so much cash on the sidelines and looking forward to a less bad 2023.

i think those are the ingredients for christmas continuing to come early. >> and other are curious moves yesterday and people are picking on carvana. running more than 30% on a cpi with prices plunging. can you talk about the moves i should get on the train with and those i should avoid? ben: that is a reflection of valuation upon yields and just how aggressively underweight a lot of people are. when you get the biggest bank with the most leverage and stuff has collapsed then valuations have been under the most quiet -- most pressure and that does not mean that you should chase it. this is a market where you want to be invested but reasonably defensive and it will be two steps forward and one step back. i do think that this is going to be a bumpy, large down. so as we get more validation,

the inflation continues to come down and we get to the top of that cycle and begin to look to 2023 and just adding risk and risk is bigger tech and real estate. i am not at all convinced by the sort of disrupted tech names even though that was -- that is what led the rally. jonathan: you called the santa rally two weeks before thanksgiving. the tech names that you want to own and are you starting to be encouraged by the c -suite, we sought cuts from meta and reports that amazon would get on the cost-cutting act. where do you want to be and what do you want to avoid? ben: right now those traditional value names, they continue to do well, both on the defensive with the health care names but some of these oppressed banks. but, looking forward and next year will be different this year. this year was about massive

valuations and holding firm. next year will be the opposite, i think earnings will come under pressure and you will get valuation relief and that is a much better environment for big tech with these dominant markets shares and valuations out of already come down. jonathan: final question, you are calling for rate cuts in 20 23, what is behind the call? ben: just markets starting to see down reasonably early, but every inflation lead indicator, there is not a single inflation lead indicator that is not meaningfully off the highest off of inflation expectations. i think that will continue to move in our direction through 2023 and take a lot of the pressure off. and, i think the question is how quickly do we get the rate cuts. we are looking for an extended

pause as long as inflation cap -- keeps drifting down. jonathan: a better week, thank you as always. i remember the call as well from 2018. it was months to call in the berkeley market. this into next year the doubts overfed rate cuts, and not a single fed official wants to endorse that and they do not want to single pot signal policy because i do not think the battle is won. if you look at the date of the battle is nowhere near won. tom: they and we are data-dependent. we ran a data dependency yesterday. we are all going to read reset and reality. -- and recalibrate. in michigan, you do get some ppi inflation song and dance. and on the 15th it is because of the quiets, the capacity utilization in industrial production, there is a lot of stuff including in the housing market. and to push against the

optimism, explained to me what shelter does in the next inflation report. there is no way to model that lower. jonathan: the end of the year is the first couple weeks of december, the second is the payrolls report in the 14th is the fed. tom: and the nothing from the 15th on. i got that memo yesterday, so we walk away after that news conference. jonathan: does lisa know? tom: she is part of it. jonathan: did she approve it. tom: how is she off today? jonathan: that and she thought -- the bond market is closed that and she thought you were incredibly rude about the accent. tom: and mascara -- in madison where garden they killed it with the british accents. ♪

jonathan: let us wrap up this trading week, 60 minutes ago, equity futures positive by .5%, building on the gains of the s&p 500. futures positive by .5% in equities up .5% on the s&p and

on the nasdaq 7%. dollar weakness continues. it is aware stay back to december 2015. today -1.3%. euro-dollar by -- posited by 1%. corroded, looking to get back to the 90's. $89.12 up by 3% after a nudge in the right direction from china reopening. just softening the stance on reopening. and if we work through it, the current rules for quarantine are 10 days. the changes mean? to eight. it is a signal -- the changes mean? to date. the signal of doing this when covid infections have been surging to a six-month pipe at it is a signal that the idea that this administration and government is ready to step away slowly from covid zero. if you frame it in that way, for other people it is a move from 10 -- 10 to eight and that is

not a big deal. tom: i would frame it through the afternoon. equities and bonds as well. we are committed to the global stand as we go to the world cup, and now representing denmark he joins us, the chief economist at apollo global management. his leadership and economics and deutsche bank over the years and going over to the dark side, what was the change going deutsche bank to apollo? i mean? on a given monday you walked in the door at apollo from a major bank with your major success, what was that like? >> my job is to watch financial markets and with that backdrop it is really the same thing that i do. and talk about inflation and unemployment, the things you talk about, are things getting better or worse and they will react differently? the job is similar. tom: how important is the next

inflation data? torsten: very. the key issue is the sequence the of hitting the dual mandate. what it means is that yesterday we got confirmation that we have seen inflation come down from the peak in june without increasing the unemployment rate. that is telling you that we might actually have a scenario with a soft landing because we are seeing inflation come down. but at least it is coming down without the increase in the unemployment rate. because the mandate and jay powell has been clear about this. we have not seen any meaningful softening so the sequencing happens to be in the right way for markets with the first division coming down without seeing an increase. jonathan: let us explore that further. where does this bottom out yet next year. torsten: if you compare the mid-1970's it takes two years to get inflation back from the

peak. it will also take two years. it is also a good road ahead of us. it is also to commodity prices and other parts of the cpi private -- process. jonathan: is there something about the nature of this story that means it will be difficult to go back to the low inflation of the previous regime? torsten: there are a number of arguments with where you could have inflation higher in the long run, of course demographics and immigration looking different. very little immigration during the pandemic and demographics are suggesting a more permanent push on inflation. you also have deglobalization in which there is less globalization implying that the stuff that we buy and to install and purchase will be more expensive. finally technology might not be contributing much growth as it has historically. there might be structural pressures, the reason that

inflation is high for cyclical reasons and as you were saying we need to get down towards 2% but it is a long road ahead of us. tom: do you aggregate your economic analysis, or as you mentioned technology, are we a polarized america, denmark where world of technology has and has not? torsten: the main implication is what it has on inflation. one debate is if you invest in renewable energy, that is a very big debate about if that is inflationary. if all spending should be disinflationary, in that sense there are important differences across the atlantic ocean in terms of the investment outlook from the u.s. versus europe. tom: this is not e penang -- deepening, the idea that there is some things going on post-pandemic, but we are seeing a capital deepening, i would say

it is invisible almost right now. torsten: we are seeing it very significantly and that is very important because that is to lower energy prices. what is also focus should be disinflationary but this is an important theme for the long walk -- the long-term outlook for inflation. in the midterm the inflation is driven by the cyclical drivers, the rest of the u.s. economy is overhearing which is why the fed is raising rates to cool things down and they have not been successful. they have cooled down the good sector of the interest rates and that is only about 20%. the service sector, airlines, hotels, concerts and sporting events are all packed everywhere. jonathan: you mentioned the sequencing, can you compare and compress -- in contrast the sequencing you are talking about in america to the ones you see develop in europe because there is a different story. torsten: in europe you are

seeing inflation going up economic activity is starting to slow down. in fact if you look at your bloomberg screen you will see that both europe and germany in particular will be in a recession next year, so the conclusion is that if you have a very different situation where it will take longer before you begin to see inflation come down that it becomes a debate about is that the case that inflation will stay higher for longer in the u.s. or in the euro area. jonathan: stagflation the base case? torsten: today it looks like europe is facing more headwinds than the u.s. because europe is facing inflation at a higher levels. there are important issues about the composition in europe is around energy and only one third of it in the u.s.. once we get the other side of february, once we get the other side of russia's invasion of ukraine the 12 month window will no longer take into its -- take into account the big spike and that is when you see europe and

inflation coming down harder. that is why there is a lot of debate of our bonds attractive at these levels. if european inflation is coming down quickly into the second quarter of next year. tom: in summary, are you optimistic for apollo management, are you saying that transactions can be a benefit or saying to build cash to use cash to keep cash? torsten: in march of 2020 the window of opportunity was open for two weeks. the window of opportunity to do things at the moment is two to three years. there is a lot of distress and high-yield markets and capital markets are shut down and that is where private equity and capital are playing a big role as stabilizer stepping in and doing things. jonathan: where is the pain? in the price we will pay for 400 basis points is it really just a 25% move or a 30% move on the

nasdaq? torsten: it is long and veritable. at this point you will still say where all are -- where are these? depending on how you look at it, your six to nine months into these and we have not seen much impact yet. so absolutely, the pain is that inflation does not come down the fed will have to go a lot more. tom: do you follow mark -- do you follow denmark football. torsten: i should've learn -- worn my red shirt today. tom: this guy had a come -- had a heart attack and has come back in they have won against france a couple of times. torsten: he has one of the best players in the manchester united team. he is great. tom: this is really something. i am not exaggerating. he literally almost died on the field. jonathan: that is not an exaggeration. he came very close and it is great to see him back. tom: they are in the bracket of france and they have shown that

they can beat them. jonathan: i love how much knowledge i have gotten on the -- of gotten on this? i have been discussion how much things will shut down in europe and how much market volume is going to roll going to christmas. torsten: denmark is playing franch on a saturday. i will be watching with all my buddies. jonathan: is there is a special bath? do we get intimate? tom: they serve beer? i am shocked. jonathan: thank you. from apollo management, really interesting stuff on the sequencing and how things are developing in a positive way relative to what we might see in europe. tom:? onto the x-axis, and he says that there was a window and now it is this opportunistic gap. to me it is a zombie rollup which leads to apollo's ability. jonathan: mike wilson at 9:30

eastern time. we will catch up with him next week. i am not going to catch up with him. jonathan: he was leaning into the next rally and he was leaning into the bias around 4100. we are not far off. tom: he had the mother of all bear market calls and he nailed it, the turnaround. how does he do it? jonathan: the framework for the economy has worked better than most, just to understand where we are. they were calling for the v-shaped recovery in march and april in the market and they got it right. i think they had a tough year last year but this year, relatively much less constructive on the equity market. tom: futures are up 20. i looked at resistance and i will say 4045 on spx is where they break through. we are not there yet. jonathan: a .5%. this was fun, wasn't it?

tom: where is my tang. jonathan: we will take a break from each other going into the weekend. live from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ lisa: keeping you up-to-date with the first word. the biden administration is sending ukraine more weapons and military vehicles valued at $400 million. the packet includes the adventure antiaircraft systems and weapons are being taken from existing stockpiles. israel's president will ask benjamin netanyahu to form the next government. his party won the highest percentage of the vote november 1 and he is expected to create a right wing correlation that -- coalition will rely on stances that are controversial. opec+ will remain cautious on

oil production coming weeks after the group made the biden administration angry about lowering output. he spoke to bloomberg at the climate change summit in europe. >> it is about being responsible and not to lose sight of what the market requires and the industry requires which is market sustainable and stability. lisa: that was in egypt. opec+ meets december 4 to decide whether to cut production again. softbank's vision fund arm has posted a quarterly loss due to write-downs on its tech investments. the billionaire founder turned his telecom company into the world's biggest startup investor but the effort has been plagued by a sharp downturn in tech valuations. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. ♪

>> there is a terminal rate problem in the equity are -- equity market and we have no idea when the fed will stop. they manage and -- they mentioned last time maybe there is a lag effect but that is asked -- that is beside the point. if we get more sticky inflation there is no fed member that wants to go down in history is losing the fight on inflation. tom: the portfolio manager from jp morgan do not know if it is before after the bombshell of yesterday on inflation. everybody is recalibrating over the weekends. the various sunday market forces

and futures up 20 and down 156. the vix from a 25.26 and now 23.57. the dow, one year trailing maybe -6% near correction status. i do want to note that brent crude is up 3%. in this 8:00 hour on a friday you need to regroup and i need to regroup there are 14 stories to regroup to. which is everett ludlow with bloomberg technology and i must say that silicon valley, the warning is clear, you have been warned, caroline hyde and ed ludlow starting with bloomberg technology it, looking forward to that and the acuity of ed ludlow on the scene in technology. what a mess and twitter. instead of a question for me, what is a single item in the

last when he four hours that has your attention on the musk saga? ed: that their finances are in a perilous situation. sources told me that musk told staff he does not know the run rates of the company. he said that the cash burn is around $4 million a day, and the change in the equation is that the advertisers have pulled the rug out from underneath him. there has been a drop in revenue and even though staff that he retained asked for a 50% layoffs, and many are now resigning. it is falling apart and i am understanding that the banks are getting nervous about the debt portion of his financing. tom: there is what i wanted to go to. who drives in early and i want to be respectful. there are rumors and speculation of bankruptcy, but that is not what we are reporting. you mentioned the banks. who controls the debate to mr. musk about that dead? ed: very quickly on bankruptcy,

he said it was a possibility according to sources. he is not saying there are bankruptcies. the problem with banks is that they still have to go cap -- happen -- hat in hand to wall street and sell that's -- this debt. there is talk of some people buying up the debt $.60 on the dollar and this is the tide of territory that they got themselves into instead of the restructuring of the loans and that is being counted as a possibility. remember we reported that his plan for this is to use himself as the marketing mechanism and is telling his bankers put me out there and i will explain my vision for this company. whether that goes down with the credit market i do not know. tom: the equity quality, i noticed there was a sale of tesla stock, to be blunt is mr. musk solvent when you take

into account his obligations on twitter. ed: it was around $4 billion of tesla stock and it added to the conclusion -- to the confusion because we did not know if that was to add to the equity portion of the financing and he has catching himself up with a cash flow perspective or is he going to use the funds to keep twitter running? we know that they are going to have pretty severe debt servicing commitments on an annual basis. you know, the pitch is bear with me about his creditors, the advertisers and frankly the users. i know you are on twitter but the platform has been chaotic for want of a better expression in the last 48 hours. tom: i want to switch years and this is what we will see from caroline hyde and you on monday. you are known from the ability to jump from story to story. i would suggest that there is a story developing at amazon. excuse me. i am gasping.

it is the tang zero. you have to try tang zero, it works every time. help me with amazon, does mr. bezos's reinsert himself into the debate? ed: this story about cost discipline is about andy jassy asserting himself in the post bezos era. that is what the 10 year has been. in the pandemic era bezos committed billions of dollars to get the packages and hire as many people and open as many centers as possible. when andy jassy took the reins the world had changed. he came from aws where you screen -- where you squeeze out all of the margin. we see that reflected in the business and the journal reporting the least profitable businesses and moving talent to places that are making money and the world has changed but the inflation print as a real driver

because it gives us the reassurance going into this holiday quarter that the consumer was spend a few dollars. tom: in your world, are the boards gaining new powers? we do not have enough time on meta-, private twitter, amazon, apple, china will, but do the boards have power? or is it all about this or that billionaire? ed: this is the test. the founders are still in the -- are still in control but the investors are losing patience and i do not know the answer but in the next fifth -- five to six months we will find out. tom: have you picked out the theme music? are you using jefferson airplane or something that i can go with? ed: i have something more my era in mind. tom: put me in my place. i would go with what grace was doing in the early 60's when they were starting out as well. congratulations on the effort

with caroline hyde and we look forward to that on monday. mr. ludlow from our san francisco bureau. i want to push to the data and i do think it is very important. we will take a real minutes to get onto what jon ferro will do in a bit and what we will do in radio. i will not mince words. what i saw yesterday at 8:30 and 30 seconds and i will use this word with great respect, i have never seen it ever. the power of the short cover that we saw yesterday at 8:30 was extraordinary and it continued through the day with acceleration into the market and into the u.s. and there is a lift today and it will be interesting to see where the vix closes. futures up 22 and dow futures up 167. with veterans day as we honor

our soldiers across all of the world and particularly in america, i know the vice president will be at the tomb of the unknown soldier later today as president biden travels. what is so important is the character of the move we saw yesterday. stay with us as this unfolds and far more importantly looking forward to the asia opening to see what next week will bring including critical ppi data which may be was important but after what we saw in cpi yesterday is extraordinary. with an economic analysis into the politics of the nation, the lawyer had paul will join -- will join david westin's -- david westin on balance of power. stay with us on television and radio. ♪

jonathan: lifer new york -- from new york city, heading to the biggest day of gains going back to april 2020. the running continues, accounts down to the open starts now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading, this is bloomberg, the open with jonathan ferro. jonathan: live from new york we begin with the big issue